"First do no harm."
That's the Hippocratic Oath, which all Pre-Meds are taught on the first day of school. For San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh, who was hired to heal an offense that had been read its last rites, it has largely been his approach with dead-man-walking QB Alex Smith. He wanted to repair and rebuild his passer's shattered confidence and bruised psyche. He wanted to protect him from the slings and arrows, both on and off the field. The idea has been to keep the throws safe, the attempts few and the expectations manageable.
Smith has rewarded Harbaugh's faith by generally being smart and accurate and playing at least one half of good football in all three games so far to produce a 91.3 passer rating and, more importantly, a 2-1 record. However, to be fair to him, he was already on the road to enlightenment well before Harbaugh got here. Since an Oct. 17 game against the crosstown Raiders, Smith has combined to throw for 10 touchdowns and only two picks over nine starts, and his 0.9 interception percentage is the lowest for any NFL quarterback. He's not slinging it 50 times a game and throwing it for 400 yards, but Smith has accepted his own limitations and taken his own oath to first do no harm.
That's all well and good as far as the scoreboard and Smith's own psychological demons are concerned, but now comes the time for both he and Harbaugh to apply the Hippocratic Oath to the quarterback's physical body, which has already taken an absolute pounding.
It's ironic that all the talk coming into this game has been about Michael Vick's injuries, the abuse he's taken and how negligent the referees have been in protecting him. Harbaugh even played doctor as a joke, and opined that the Eagles should sit the electric playmaker for a week. Smith, meanwhile, is the one who has endured 11 sacks over the last two weeks, who suffered a concussion in Week 2 the same as Vick did and who survived former teammate Nate Clements launching himself into his helmet during a 13-8 win at Cincinnati. Smith has survived all the blows without missing a snap and hasn't uttered a peep about needing more protection from the referees or his own linemen.
What Smith needs now though is to be protected. Not from us evil media, and not from his error prone nature but from his coach using him as a crash test dummy. Through the first three games we've seen Harbaugh use him as a lead blocker, on rollouts at the end zone with no blockers to help him and on college style option plays. Harbuagh has had him passing with max protection schemes where only one or two receivers have gone out on the pattern, and the only good those extra blockers have done is to ensure that Smith will have to eat the football when his limited options are double-teamed.
The game against the Eagles, who are second in the league with 12 sacks, represents a bevy of nightmarish match-ups for the 49ers. Joe Staley, who has been more matador than left tackle against opposing bull-rushers, gets Trent Cole, a two-time Pro Bowler with 60 career sacks. Anthony Davis, who's been prone to getting beat off the ball by speed rushers, particularly on the road, faces Jason Babin, who already has four sacks and lines up as wide as possible in the Eagles funky defensive alignment. Most disconcerting of all, right guard Chilo Rachal, who was benched last week for wretched play and will be on a short leash on Sunday, gets defensive tackle Cullen Jenkins, who has generated more inside pressure this season than anyone besides Ndamukong Suh.
This is what the kids would call an uh-to-the-oh situation.
On the other side of the ball the 49ers are still at a speed disadvantage against Vick, running back LeSean McCoy (the team's best player by far); and receivers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, but not to the extent they have been in past seasons. The linebacking corps is far more athletic with youngsters NaVorro Bowman, Ahmad Brooks and Aldon Smith, and corner Carlos Rogers can keep up with the smurfs far better than Clements could. Strong safety Donte Whitner's hip is bothering him, but that shouldn't be as much of an issue this week since tight end Brent Celek has been all but eliminated from the Eagles offense.
Sure, the Eagles should still be good for three or four touchdowns on Sunday if Vick plays the whole game, but he hasn't been able to finish either of the past two games and has been very charitable with the football. The possibility exists that the 49ers could get a cheap score or two.
Harbuagh will want to keep the ball away from the Eagles offense. He'll want long, time-consuming drives that keep Vick and Co. on the sidelines. If ever the 49ers will get their 30th-ranked running game untracked, it will be against the Eagles, who are coincidentally ranked 30th themselves against the run. He'll want to line up as many of his elephants in there as he can to trample Philadelphia's smallish front seven.
It won't work.
No matter how many blockers the 49ers put out there, the defense can jam one more than they can account for in the box. Also, the more big uglies you have, the better chance one of them will whiff on a block, will commit a hold, will jump early or otherwise blow his assignment.
The solution isn't more blockers, it's less. Stretch the Eagles out with three and four receivers and run quick hitters up the gut against Philadelphia's soft underbelly. Give the ball to Kendall Hunter on draws and use the Philly's over-aggressiveness against them. Give Smith as many options in the pass game as possible so he can diagnose where the mismatch is and get the ball out quickly to Vernon Davis or Michael Crabtree. This is not the kind of game where he's going to find guys open deep, so the goal should be to get the ball out of his hands as quick as possible.
With two wins in their back pocket already, the 49ers don't have to gamble too much against a desperate, more talented opponent. The main goal should be keeping Smith healthy, with anything more than that considered gravy. Just get him out of there in one piece and give the offensive line a chance to catch its breath and regroup. A loss the team can survive. An extended absence from Smith they cannot.
First do no harm.
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Week 4 Picks:
San Francisco at Philadelphia (-9): Obviously the line is based on Michael Vick's availability. I think the 49ers have more speed on defense than they've had in the past, particularly at linebacker and safety, but that the Eagles will still be good for 27 or so if Vick plays the full 60. I can't see the offense, with all its limitations, getting to 17 without turnovers really coming into play. Eagles 27, 49ers 16.
Detroit at Dallas (-1): The Cowboys are still awfully gimpy at receiver and corner and the Lions are the wrong team to be having issues with along the interior of the offensive line with Ndamukong Suh coming to town. This should be a fun one. Lions 27, Cowboys 24.
Carolina at Chicago (-7): Vegas seems to think the Bears defense will force at least three turnovers out of Cam Newton because I don't know how they expect the Bears to outscore anyone by a touchdown. Look for an inspired performance out of tight end Greg Olsen who will be looking to show Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz that tight ends do matter. An upset special. Panthers 23, Bears 17.
Buffalo at Cincinnati (+3): The Bengals defense has been very respectable thus far through three weeks, save for the occasional flub from corner Nate Clements, but now they get a real test with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson and the rest of the high-flying Bills. After their triumph against the Patriots it would only be natural for Buffalo to completely look past Cincinnati right? The good thing for them is that they don't show up until the second half anyway, so nothing will change. Bills 24, Bengals 16. **FOUR STAR SPECIAL**
Tennessee at Cleveland (-1): The Browns are a one point favorite, but for the life of me I can't fathom why. The Titans are just playing so much better than them, Kenny Britt or no Kenny Britt. I'm expecting Colt McCoy to get rag-dolled quite a bit in this one. Titans 23, Browns 13.
Minnesota at Kansas City (+2): Not very often a winless team through three weeks is a favorite on the road, but here we are. It's true that the Vikings have been one of the best teams in the NFL in the first halves and the absolute rotten worst in the second halves, but I simply can't see Jason Allen walking off the field a loser in this one. His departure from the Chiefs was anything but friendly, and he's going to be looking to tear Matt Cassel's head off out there. Vikings 26, Chiefs 13.
Washington at St. Louis (even): I don't have a line for this one, presumably because of concerns about Rams RB Steven Jackson. This looks like a drab match-up but is secretly the most important game on the sked. The Rams can't afford to fall too far behind the division leaders, even in the NFC West and the Redskins need to bounce back from their late nosedive at Dallas to show they're not the same old also-rans in the NFC East. I think the short week and the travel will get them. Rams 20, Redskins 17.
New Orleans at Jacksonville (+8): A rookie quarterback making his second career start against the Saints and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams? Where do I sign up? Games like this actually tempt me to bet real money. Saints 30, Jaguars 13 **FIVE STAR SPECIAL**
Pittsburgh at Houston (-4): Another fun game pitting two defenses bent on insisting they're a lot better than they actually are. The Texans still don't know when the healthy Arian Foster is going to show up. The Steelers don't know who the heck will play tackle. I don't know if I'll be able to deal with all the singing Steelers fans at the sports bar. Hopefully they won't be singing at the end. Texans 34, Steelers 27.
NY Giants at Arizona (+1): Eli Manning is coming off a great game, even with no-name receivers, and the Cards scored just 10 points at Seattle. Pressure is mounting on Kevin Kolb to show he's a franchise QB, or it would be if Arizona had any fans. (Hey-O.) I'm gonna go with the team I know has a running game I can trust and some pass rushers. Giants 27, Cardinals 20 **THREE STAR SPECIAL**
Atlanta at Seattle (+6): No, this will not be one of games I catch up on later. The Falcons don't have much rhythm on offense and Matt Ryan has been getting knocked around, but they're not gonna have to score much to get past the low-watt Seahawks. Falcons 23, Seahawks 13. **TWO STAR SPECIAL**
Denver at Green Bay (-13): The line surprises me. The Packers in recent years just haven't taken games like this very seriously, and Kyle Orton can put up some garbage time points throwing it to Brandon Lloyd and Eric Decker. Packers 34, Broncos 24.
New England at Oakland (+5): My heart says Raiders, my head says Patriots. I can't see New England losing two in a row. Maybe if the Raiders were more of a passing team instead of a running team, but they aren't. Bill Belichick is gonna make Jason Campbell try to match points with Tom Brady, and he's not up to it.
Patriots 38, Raiders 24.
Miami at San Diego (-9): No Antonio Gates for the Chargers and the Dolphins for some bizarre reason are way better on the road than at home. The Chargers pass rush has been lackluster and San Diego has given off some bad vibes so far, where even Philip Rivers has been uncharacteristically sloppy. Chargers 24, Dolphins 17.
NY Jets at Baltimore (-4): What a game. For my money these are the two most complete teams in the AFC. I'm curious whether the Jets will use Darrelle Revis on Anquan Boldin or rookie Torrey Smith, who demolished the Rams last week. Rex Ryan will worry the most about taking away Ray Rice after how badly Oakland's Darren McFadden gashed them. The Jets have to forget about trying to get Shonn Greene going and go right at Baltimore's corners. I'll take the Jets and the points. Ravens 20, Jets 17.
Indianapolis at Tampa Bay (-10): What a dog game. Curtis Painter against a rabid Buccaneers defense. I'm still waiting for Josh Freeman to get untracked and this is the week it's gonna happen. The Colts gave it everything they had last week against Pittsburgh and it still wasn't enough. I think this is the week they quit. Buccaneers 27, Colts 10.
Last week's W-L: 13-3
Season W-L: 32-16
Week 3 Vs. Spread: 9-7
Season Vs. Spread: 17-29-2
Week 3 +/- Points (All games count as one point unless specified): +8
Season +/- Points: -22
Friday, September 30, 2011
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Week 4 NFL Power Poll, 49ers Statistical Rankings
Thanks to NFL Shortcuts on DirecTV and my utter lack of social life, I watched 11 NFL games the past few days. So here's a Power Poll based on my careful examination of the teams involved and, more importantly, my various biases. Enjoy.
1. Green Bay (3-0): Are they dominant? No. But they weren't for most of last season either. The pass rush will be cobbled by hook or by crook through various Dom Capers blitzes as the only bona fide threat is Clay Matthews. "Only" three sacks against the Bears is a bit concerning, though. The loss of free safety Nick Collins might hurt more than all the guys that went to the IR for them last season. It seems that Ryan Grant and James Starks will take turns as the primary runner, depending on their mood. Veteran WR Donald Driver looks ready for the glue factory, but with guys like Jordy Nelson, James Jones and TE Jermichael Finley, who's practically a wideout himself, it hardly matters.
2. New Orleans (2-1): Only indispensable part is Drew Brees while the other skill players on offense are mix-and-match. I love their RB trio of Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles, and the way the Saints use them, all three will be fresh for the stretch run. The receiving corps is interchangeable too and haven't really missed a beat with the collarbone injury to Marques Colston. TE Jimmy Graham has been a breakout star and no one has been able to cover him yet. Defensively, we have to temper expectations. They're better than they've shown, but have to beat other elite offenses in shootouts. It's a defense that's built to play with a lead.
3. Baltimore (2-1): You get the feeling that their "A" game is better than anyone else's. Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs are off to sensational starts and Ed Reed and Ray Lewis have show they still have something left in the tank. They left Rams QB Sam Bradford looking utterly beaten and defeated midway through their decimation of the pitiful Rams. Offensively, Torrey Smith gives them a new toy on the outside, which will only help Ray Rice, Anquan Boldin and their two tight ends. Only a wobbly O-Line and questionable corners can spoil this.
4. New York Jets (2-1): Despite how easily Darren McFadden ran through them, I stubbornly cling to the belief that this is the most complete team in the AFC, with the fewest weaknesses. Their offensive line badly missed injured center Nick Mangold, and will continue to, for a couple more weeks. RB Shonn Greene hasn't gotten going yet. Antonio Cromartie has struggled big-time. I expect Rex Ryan to figure out the defensive issues. He'll cut the nonsense and start putting Darrelle Revis on the opponent's best guy and scheme around the other side of the field. The run defense is more of a concern.
5. New England (2-1): Depending on who you listen to, Tom Brady was either responsible for two, one or none of his four interceptions at Buffalo. Regardless, even with their funky, cobbled-together running game, that offensive is gonna dominate just about everyone, even if they lack a speed threat on the outside. TE Aaron Hernandez missed the game and they didn't skip a beat really, just more throws to Rob Gronkowski and Wes Welker: Fantasy God. On the other side they're just terrible, and unlike with the Jets, none of these players have a track record of being particularly good, so I don't see much cause for optimism in the future.
6. Philadelphia (1-2): Yes, despite their losing record, I still have the Eagles here. They've had the lead in both of their losses while Michael Vick was in the game, and then their defense and backup Mike Kafka have combined to crap the bed. Their linebackers and safeties have just been dreadful and Philly is continuing to shuffle it up in these two spots, hoping for the right combination. S Nate Allen and LB Brian Rolle are in, S Kurt Coleman and LB Casey Matthews are out. Offensively, Vick wasn't right the whole game, playing a week after he sustained a concussion, and Andy Reid was uncharacteristically conservative as a result. I never thought I'd rip them for running the ball too much, but here we are. Also, it seems that DeSean Jackson will not try hard until they pay him, so perhaps they should get on that. Despite all the late-hit controversies and injuries, the offensive line hasn't been that bad and Vick isn't getting hit any more than most QBs. He's just frustrated from fluke injuries and I expect the team to clean those problems up.
7. Detroit (3-0): Matt Stafford finally tasted some turf against a desperate Minnesota pass rush after a spotless first two weeks, but persevered in the second half once the coaches figured out that TE Brandon Pettigrew wasn't being covered. They exploited that match-up over and over and when Stafford got bored of that, he just lobbed up a couple of lollipops for Megatron. (Why does Calvin Johnson call himself "Megatron" anyway? Stafford is the one with the arm cannon. Johnson should call himself "Devastator" or something.) Jahvid Best is in a really fortunate situation here, to still be a starter. On defense it's amazing the Lions have been as good as they've been without getting anything from No. 1 pick Nick Fairley, but they get a good test Sunday at Dallas.
8. Buffalo (3-0): Offensively legit, without a doubt. I had concerns before the season about their offensive line, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is getting the ball out quickly and the Bills are spreading the field with so many receivers that opposing pass rushers don't have much time. Pretty soon all NFL offenses will look like this (yes, even the Niners). C.J. Spiller is in a bad spot. He's viewed as a bust when really Fred Jackson is just better than him. I think Spiller is better than Jahvid Best, for example, but Best has nobody in front of him. The defense did a good job in making the Patriots one-dimensional, and the secondary took advantage of the opportunities they got.
9. Houston (2-1): No shame in losing on the road at New Orleans, and they actually had the lead for most of it. Defense showed hints of its ugly past in getting scorched by Drew Brees in the second half, and Mario Williams has been oddly quiet, perhaps not transitioning to linebacker as easily as he wanted to. They released Steve Slaton (Miami picked him up on waivers), whose career has just fallen off a cliff from a couple seasons ago. Arian Foster still can't get healthy either, so it's the Ben Tate show for now.
10. Oakland (2-1): Speaking of offensively legit, I've got nothing but respect for what the Raiders have been able to accomplish. Hue Jackson is really scheming around Jason Campbell's limitations and he and receivers coach Sanjay Lal deserve a lot of credit for getting rookie WR Denarious Moore up to speed and for getting production from guys like Derek Hagan. Another rookie, Stefen Wiesniewski, has filled in more than capably for the departed Robert Gallery. Front four very solid against the Jets, but I'm curious if they can bring that same kind of heat against Tom Brady on Sunday.
11. San Diego (2-1): Philip Rivers hasn't been himself at all through three games and has thrown a ton of picks. He's missed his usual security blanket in Antonio Gates and has been compensating by throwing a ton of check-downs to backs Ryan Matthews and Mike Tolbert. The offense is still trying to figure its identity. The defense, meanwhile, took a hit with S Bob Sanders out for the year (shocking, I know). Also they only managed one sack against the feeble Chiefs. Larry English was a healthy scratch and Shaun Phillips might as well have been. DE Luis Castillo will miss most if not all the season with a broken leg. At this point, it wouldn't be a surprise to see both bay area teams win their divisions (jinx!).
12. Pittsburgh (2-1): Did everything they could to blow that game over the skeleton crew Colts team. Offensive line in shambles. Can't protect Big Ben, can't run block for Rashard Mendenhall (sounds familiar). The offense might as well be a spread at this point. Defensively I didn't see much in that game to give me confidence for the future, if I'm a Steelers fan. Still too old, too slow, and a real trouble spot at corner. Game at Houston could get ugly for them, or maybe they'll prove the naysayers wrong and knock Matt Schaub silly.
13. Tampa Bay (2-1): Tough defense that beat the hell out of Matt Ryan and Michael Turner for the better part of four quarters on Sunday, but injuries are starting to take their toll in the secondary and I'm not sure about the long-term potential of that pass rush. Josh Freeman doing everything he can on offense, at times too much, but they're over-reliant on him. Receivers Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn have been ghosts so far and need to be more involved. Relative breather coming up Monday night at home vs. depleted Colts.
14. Washington (2-1): By all rights they should've won on Monday at Dallas. Defensive coordinator Jim Haslett dialed up one too many blitzes late when it was 3rd-and-18 late in the fourth quarter and the Skins clinging to a 16-15 lead. Play coverage there, drop nine guys back and double-team everybody and what would Tony Romo be able to do? Again, as it always happens with that guy, corner DeAngelo Hall's mouth wrote checks that his play couldn't cash. And of course, he blamed everyone but himself afterward. Classy guy.
15. Dallas (2-1): Pretty gutty win considering all their injuries, but I felt like I needed an air sickness bag after listening to "Jaws" and "Chucky" go on and on about Tony Romo's heroism like he just pulled a bunch of people out of a burning building or something. Cowboys have an imposing pass rush, but that secondary can be had and they're susceptible to passes to running backs as well. Offensively that line has major issues, especially at center, but at least their run blocking was better. Interesting home game coming up against high-powered Detroit.
16. New York Giants (2-1): Big win on the road in Philly for Eli Manning, who has a history of playing really well there for some reason. He did it with no tight ends and really, no receivers since Mario Manningham was out and Hakeem Nicks was very limited. The beat up defense got a bit of a reprieve since Michael Vick was clearly not himself and the Eagles had to call far more run plays than usual. It's hard to get a read on the Giants. They're beat up to hell, but playing some dinged up foes, too. Interesting match-up in the Arizona desert on Sunday.
17. Chicago (1-2): Can't fault them too much when their two losses have been at New Orleans and against the defending champs. Their issues protecting Jay Cutler are well documented, but when they can't even open any holes for Matt Forte (9 carries, 2 yards) then they've got some real problems on offense. What they do have going for them, however, is some magic formula that helps them contain Aaron Rodgers at least somewhat, whereas no one else can stop the Packers at all. If they're serious, they need to take care of Cam Newton and the Panthers, convincingly. Don't understand why they wasted a fabulous trick play on the punt team at a time they trailed by ten with a minute to go. Save it for a tight game, no?
18. Atlanta (1-2): Did anyone block worse last week than the Falcons? Matt Ryan took some hellacious shots and Michael Turner couldn't get anything going. They've got two great receivers and of course Tony Gonzalez is a valuable weapon in the red zone, but they've been hard-pressed to get into any kind of sustained rhythm when they're not in the no-huddle. Defensively they stiffened up when they had to at Tampa, but it was too late and the damage had already been done. Still don't have much confidence in those corners, but they've got a relative breather this week at Seattle.
19. Tennessee (2-1): No, I am not a believer in Matt Hasselbeck. This two week stretch was an aberration and he'll find mediocrity -- or injury -- soon enough. Also, they've lost Kenny Britt to an ACL, so now the offense really needs Chris Johnson to find his old form because this can't be a passing team any longer. I do have more faith in their defense to keep them afloat and competitive in most games.
20. San Francisco (2-1): The offense is better than the number say. At least it should be, on paper. Alex Smith isn't turning it over, which is keeping the team in games. The receivers are slow and the line is abysmal, but at least the coach is showing growing faith in his quarterback week after week. With Shawntae Spencer and Dashon Goldson back in the lineup, the defense is now above board in all three levels, and this looks like the most complete team in the ghastly NFC West.
21. Minnesota (0-3): Obviously they're winless, but as much scorn as we have to heap on them for their lousy second halves, we have to at least give some measure of credit to Minny for having enough quality to get out to big halftime leads against three good opponents in San Diego, Tampa Bay and Detroit. Adrian Peterson runs harder than anyone and his backup Toby Gerhart is another guy who should be a starter elsewhere. The Vikes don't have a lot of speed at receiver, their O-Line is wobbly and their secondary is sub-par. Also, it seems apparent that Donovan McNabb keeps waning in games. Is it a fitness issue? Confidence? Play-calling? Coaching adjustments? Who knows.
22. Carolina (1-2): Not so sure what a win against the Jaguars during a flood tells us about them. DeAngelo Williams joins Frank Gore, Chris Johnson and Arian Foster on the list of first round fantasy picks who are absolutely murdering their owners right now. One day I'll watch them play with a critical eye and figure it out, but Jags-Cats wasn't gonna do it for me. The Bears on Sunday? That's a bit better.
23. Cleveland (2-1): This is probably about five spots too high, to be honest. Anyone who watched that game against Miami (or the replay of it, like I did) can't deny the truth: This is one of the least-talented teams in football. Their offense was based on QB Colt McCoy drawing roughing-the-passer penalties and throwing up prayers into the corner of the end zone, hoping his guy can out-jump the Dolphins corner. I can't deny the more I watch McCoy the less I'm convinced he'll ever be a franchise QB. He's someone that can only be appreciated through highlights. Watching whole games makes me sour on him.
24. Arizona (1-2): How in the world did they lose up at Seattle? Just 10 points? Is Beanie frickin' Wells that crucial to the operation? My conclusion, at the risk of being repetitive, is that their offensive line kinda stinks. Dare I say that Alex Smith has been the best quarterback in the division so far. Big one coming up for the Cards at home against the Giants.
25. Denver (1-2): They're a couple bounces away from 3-0, yet even then they would be of no concern or threat to anyone. Neat trick, that. LB Von Miller looks like the early front-runner for DROY and they'll be getting Elvis Dumervil and Champ Bailey back soon enough. Still, there's this general malaise about this team, this whiff of irrelevance. Their running game is a bit of a joke, and Kyle Orton is the wrong quarterback to ask to do move the ball singlehandedly. Things get grim on Sunday with a trip to Green Bay.
26. Cincinnati (1-2): The 49ers finally got Andy Dalton to look like a rookie quarterback last Sunday, but what struck me was that for the third time in three weeks their defense wasn't a liability. Sure, they haven't played anyone good, but still I thought the Bengals would be pretty bad on that end if they had to rely on guys like Manny Lawson and Nate Clements in the starting lineup. Now they host the Bills. I wonder if Buffalo is looking past them?
27. Miami (0-3): They absolutely should've killed Miami, but were done in by dumb penalties, bad luck and some jump balls. So it goes for this woebegone team. I'm just laughing that they've already pretty much given up on the idea of Reggie Bush: Running Back and have signed Steve Slaton on waivers. It doesn't get any easier this Sunday at San Diego.
28. Indianapolis (0-3): Even with Curtis Painter at quarterback, they have more talent at receiver, tight end and defensive end than the teams below them on this list. Still, the injuries mount, with LB Gary Brackett and S Melvin Bullitt are on IR. I'm guessing Peyton Manning wants to play in December just to avoid having to deal with having Andrew Luck as a teammate.
29. Seattle (1-2): Okay, the defense has looked spunky of late. And Sidney Rice did give the offense a boost. I remain skeptical. Lets see them show us something against the Falcons at home.
30. Jacksonville (1-2): Making the move to rookie Blaine Gabbert was the right call and the necessary one. If he struggles, so what? It's not like anybody is watching. Just move to LA already. Also, what the hell are they putting out there at receiver? Good lord.
31. St. Louis (0-3): Pretty embarrassing effort Sunday against Baltimore. How do you not show up at home like that? They need more speed at corner, which was a problem that plagued the 49ers for years. Offensively, the line is playing like I thought they'd play last year, and Sam Bradford is starting to get frustrated. I like Steve Spagnuolo a lot as a coach, so I was pretty disappointed to see him hire an asshat like Josh McDaniels to be his offensive coordinator.
32. Kansas City (0-3): Abandon all hope, ye who enter here.
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49ers Team Statistical Rankings, Presented Without Comment:
49ers Offensive Rankings:
Rushing: 69.7 YPG (30th); Yards Per Carry: 2.5 (31st); Rushing Touchdowns: 3 (T-5th);
Passing: 144.0 YPG (28th); Completion Percentage: 68.9 (T-4th); Yards Per Attempt: 6.8 (22nd);
Passing Touchdowns: 2 (T-26th); Interceptions: 1 (T-1st); Sacks: 11 (T-27th);
QB Rating: 91.3 (12th); 3rd Down Percentage: 32.6 (T-21st);
Yards Per Game: 213.7 (32nd); Scoring: 23.3 (12th)
49ers Defensive Rankings:
Rushing: 62.7 YPG (3rd); Yards Per Carry: 2.9 (T-1st); Rushing Touchdowns: 0 (T-1st)
Passing: 244.0 YPG (16th); Completion Percentage: 57.1 (T-6th); Yards Per Attempt: 7.0 (T-10th);
Passing Touchdowns: 5 (T-15th); Interceptions: 5 (T-2nd); Sacks: 7 (T-16th);
Fumbles Forced: 4 (T-8th); Fumbles Recovered: 3 (T-5th);
3rd Down Percentage: 30.8 (T-4th); Yards Per Game: 306.3 (7th); Scoring: 17.3 (4th)
49ers Special Teams Rankings:
Kickoff Return: 39.7 Avg (1st); Kickoff Return Allowed: 21.6 Avg (10th);
Punt Return: 13.0 Avg (8th); Punt Return Allowed: 9.6 Avg (18th);
Field Goal Percentage: 100.0 (T-1st); Net Punt Average: 47.4 Yards (2nd)
Giveaway/Takeaway:
Giveaways: 2 (T-1st); Takeaways: 8 (T-3rd); Plus/Minus: +6 (T-1st)
1. Green Bay (3-0): Are they dominant? No. But they weren't for most of last season either. The pass rush will be cobbled by hook or by crook through various Dom Capers blitzes as the only bona fide threat is Clay Matthews. "Only" three sacks against the Bears is a bit concerning, though. The loss of free safety Nick Collins might hurt more than all the guys that went to the IR for them last season. It seems that Ryan Grant and James Starks will take turns as the primary runner, depending on their mood. Veteran WR Donald Driver looks ready for the glue factory, but with guys like Jordy Nelson, James Jones and TE Jermichael Finley, who's practically a wideout himself, it hardly matters.
2. New Orleans (2-1): Only indispensable part is Drew Brees while the other skill players on offense are mix-and-match. I love their RB trio of Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles, and the way the Saints use them, all three will be fresh for the stretch run. The receiving corps is interchangeable too and haven't really missed a beat with the collarbone injury to Marques Colston. TE Jimmy Graham has been a breakout star and no one has been able to cover him yet. Defensively, we have to temper expectations. They're better than they've shown, but have to beat other elite offenses in shootouts. It's a defense that's built to play with a lead.
3. Baltimore (2-1): You get the feeling that their "A" game is better than anyone else's. Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs are off to sensational starts and Ed Reed and Ray Lewis have show they still have something left in the tank. They left Rams QB Sam Bradford looking utterly beaten and defeated midway through their decimation of the pitiful Rams. Offensively, Torrey Smith gives them a new toy on the outside, which will only help Ray Rice, Anquan Boldin and their two tight ends. Only a wobbly O-Line and questionable corners can spoil this.
4. New York Jets (2-1): Despite how easily Darren McFadden ran through them, I stubbornly cling to the belief that this is the most complete team in the AFC, with the fewest weaknesses. Their offensive line badly missed injured center Nick Mangold, and will continue to, for a couple more weeks. RB Shonn Greene hasn't gotten going yet. Antonio Cromartie has struggled big-time. I expect Rex Ryan to figure out the defensive issues. He'll cut the nonsense and start putting Darrelle Revis on the opponent's best guy and scheme around the other side of the field. The run defense is more of a concern.
5. New England (2-1): Depending on who you listen to, Tom Brady was either responsible for two, one or none of his four interceptions at Buffalo. Regardless, even with their funky, cobbled-together running game, that offensive is gonna dominate just about everyone, even if they lack a speed threat on the outside. TE Aaron Hernandez missed the game and they didn't skip a beat really, just more throws to Rob Gronkowski and Wes Welker: Fantasy God. On the other side they're just terrible, and unlike with the Jets, none of these players have a track record of being particularly good, so I don't see much cause for optimism in the future.
6. Philadelphia (1-2): Yes, despite their losing record, I still have the Eagles here. They've had the lead in both of their losses while Michael Vick was in the game, and then their defense and backup Mike Kafka have combined to crap the bed. Their linebackers and safeties have just been dreadful and Philly is continuing to shuffle it up in these two spots, hoping for the right combination. S Nate Allen and LB Brian Rolle are in, S Kurt Coleman and LB Casey Matthews are out. Offensively, Vick wasn't right the whole game, playing a week after he sustained a concussion, and Andy Reid was uncharacteristically conservative as a result. I never thought I'd rip them for running the ball too much, but here we are. Also, it seems that DeSean Jackson will not try hard until they pay him, so perhaps they should get on that. Despite all the late-hit controversies and injuries, the offensive line hasn't been that bad and Vick isn't getting hit any more than most QBs. He's just frustrated from fluke injuries and I expect the team to clean those problems up.
7. Detroit (3-0): Matt Stafford finally tasted some turf against a desperate Minnesota pass rush after a spotless first two weeks, but persevered in the second half once the coaches figured out that TE Brandon Pettigrew wasn't being covered. They exploited that match-up over and over and when Stafford got bored of that, he just lobbed up a couple of lollipops for Megatron. (Why does Calvin Johnson call himself "Megatron" anyway? Stafford is the one with the arm cannon. Johnson should call himself "Devastator" or something.) Jahvid Best is in a really fortunate situation here, to still be a starter. On defense it's amazing the Lions have been as good as they've been without getting anything from No. 1 pick Nick Fairley, but they get a good test Sunday at Dallas.
8. Buffalo (3-0): Offensively legit, without a doubt. I had concerns before the season about their offensive line, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is getting the ball out quickly and the Bills are spreading the field with so many receivers that opposing pass rushers don't have much time. Pretty soon all NFL offenses will look like this (yes, even the Niners). C.J. Spiller is in a bad spot. He's viewed as a bust when really Fred Jackson is just better than him. I think Spiller is better than Jahvid Best, for example, but Best has nobody in front of him. The defense did a good job in making the Patriots one-dimensional, and the secondary took advantage of the opportunities they got.
9. Houston (2-1): No shame in losing on the road at New Orleans, and they actually had the lead for most of it. Defense showed hints of its ugly past in getting scorched by Drew Brees in the second half, and Mario Williams has been oddly quiet, perhaps not transitioning to linebacker as easily as he wanted to. They released Steve Slaton (Miami picked him up on waivers), whose career has just fallen off a cliff from a couple seasons ago. Arian Foster still can't get healthy either, so it's the Ben Tate show for now.
10. Oakland (2-1): Speaking of offensively legit, I've got nothing but respect for what the Raiders have been able to accomplish. Hue Jackson is really scheming around Jason Campbell's limitations and he and receivers coach Sanjay Lal deserve a lot of credit for getting rookie WR Denarious Moore up to speed and for getting production from guys like Derek Hagan. Another rookie, Stefen Wiesniewski, has filled in more than capably for the departed Robert Gallery. Front four very solid against the Jets, but I'm curious if they can bring that same kind of heat against Tom Brady on Sunday.
11. San Diego (2-1): Philip Rivers hasn't been himself at all through three games and has thrown a ton of picks. He's missed his usual security blanket in Antonio Gates and has been compensating by throwing a ton of check-downs to backs Ryan Matthews and Mike Tolbert. The offense is still trying to figure its identity. The defense, meanwhile, took a hit with S Bob Sanders out for the year (shocking, I know). Also they only managed one sack against the feeble Chiefs. Larry English was a healthy scratch and Shaun Phillips might as well have been. DE Luis Castillo will miss most if not all the season with a broken leg. At this point, it wouldn't be a surprise to see both bay area teams win their divisions (jinx!).
12. Pittsburgh (2-1): Did everything they could to blow that game over the skeleton crew Colts team. Offensive line in shambles. Can't protect Big Ben, can't run block for Rashard Mendenhall (sounds familiar). The offense might as well be a spread at this point. Defensively I didn't see much in that game to give me confidence for the future, if I'm a Steelers fan. Still too old, too slow, and a real trouble spot at corner. Game at Houston could get ugly for them, or maybe they'll prove the naysayers wrong and knock Matt Schaub silly.
13. Tampa Bay (2-1): Tough defense that beat the hell out of Matt Ryan and Michael Turner for the better part of four quarters on Sunday, but injuries are starting to take their toll in the secondary and I'm not sure about the long-term potential of that pass rush. Josh Freeman doing everything he can on offense, at times too much, but they're over-reliant on him. Receivers Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn have been ghosts so far and need to be more involved. Relative breather coming up Monday night at home vs. depleted Colts.
14. Washington (2-1): By all rights they should've won on Monday at Dallas. Defensive coordinator Jim Haslett dialed up one too many blitzes late when it was 3rd-and-18 late in the fourth quarter and the Skins clinging to a 16-15 lead. Play coverage there, drop nine guys back and double-team everybody and what would Tony Romo be able to do? Again, as it always happens with that guy, corner DeAngelo Hall's mouth wrote checks that his play couldn't cash. And of course, he blamed everyone but himself afterward. Classy guy.
15. Dallas (2-1): Pretty gutty win considering all their injuries, but I felt like I needed an air sickness bag after listening to "Jaws" and "Chucky" go on and on about Tony Romo's heroism like he just pulled a bunch of people out of a burning building or something. Cowboys have an imposing pass rush, but that secondary can be had and they're susceptible to passes to running backs as well. Offensively that line has major issues, especially at center, but at least their run blocking was better. Interesting home game coming up against high-powered Detroit.
16. New York Giants (2-1): Big win on the road in Philly for Eli Manning, who has a history of playing really well there for some reason. He did it with no tight ends and really, no receivers since Mario Manningham was out and Hakeem Nicks was very limited. The beat up defense got a bit of a reprieve since Michael Vick was clearly not himself and the Eagles had to call far more run plays than usual. It's hard to get a read on the Giants. They're beat up to hell, but playing some dinged up foes, too. Interesting match-up in the Arizona desert on Sunday.
17. Chicago (1-2): Can't fault them too much when their two losses have been at New Orleans and against the defending champs. Their issues protecting Jay Cutler are well documented, but when they can't even open any holes for Matt Forte (9 carries, 2 yards) then they've got some real problems on offense. What they do have going for them, however, is some magic formula that helps them contain Aaron Rodgers at least somewhat, whereas no one else can stop the Packers at all. If they're serious, they need to take care of Cam Newton and the Panthers, convincingly. Don't understand why they wasted a fabulous trick play on the punt team at a time they trailed by ten with a minute to go. Save it for a tight game, no?
18. Atlanta (1-2): Did anyone block worse last week than the Falcons? Matt Ryan took some hellacious shots and Michael Turner couldn't get anything going. They've got two great receivers and of course Tony Gonzalez is a valuable weapon in the red zone, but they've been hard-pressed to get into any kind of sustained rhythm when they're not in the no-huddle. Defensively they stiffened up when they had to at Tampa, but it was too late and the damage had already been done. Still don't have much confidence in those corners, but they've got a relative breather this week at Seattle.
19. Tennessee (2-1): No, I am not a believer in Matt Hasselbeck. This two week stretch was an aberration and he'll find mediocrity -- or injury -- soon enough. Also, they've lost Kenny Britt to an ACL, so now the offense really needs Chris Johnson to find his old form because this can't be a passing team any longer. I do have more faith in their defense to keep them afloat and competitive in most games.
20. San Francisco (2-1): The offense is better than the number say. At least it should be, on paper. Alex Smith isn't turning it over, which is keeping the team in games. The receivers are slow and the line is abysmal, but at least the coach is showing growing faith in his quarterback week after week. With Shawntae Spencer and Dashon Goldson back in the lineup, the defense is now above board in all three levels, and this looks like the most complete team in the ghastly NFC West.
21. Minnesota (0-3): Obviously they're winless, but as much scorn as we have to heap on them for their lousy second halves, we have to at least give some measure of credit to Minny for having enough quality to get out to big halftime leads against three good opponents in San Diego, Tampa Bay and Detroit. Adrian Peterson runs harder than anyone and his backup Toby Gerhart is another guy who should be a starter elsewhere. The Vikes don't have a lot of speed at receiver, their O-Line is wobbly and their secondary is sub-par. Also, it seems apparent that Donovan McNabb keeps waning in games. Is it a fitness issue? Confidence? Play-calling? Coaching adjustments? Who knows.
22. Carolina (1-2): Not so sure what a win against the Jaguars during a flood tells us about them. DeAngelo Williams joins Frank Gore, Chris Johnson and Arian Foster on the list of first round fantasy picks who are absolutely murdering their owners right now. One day I'll watch them play with a critical eye and figure it out, but Jags-Cats wasn't gonna do it for me. The Bears on Sunday? That's a bit better.
23. Cleveland (2-1): This is probably about five spots too high, to be honest. Anyone who watched that game against Miami (or the replay of it, like I did) can't deny the truth: This is one of the least-talented teams in football. Their offense was based on QB Colt McCoy drawing roughing-the-passer penalties and throwing up prayers into the corner of the end zone, hoping his guy can out-jump the Dolphins corner. I can't deny the more I watch McCoy the less I'm convinced he'll ever be a franchise QB. He's someone that can only be appreciated through highlights. Watching whole games makes me sour on him.
24. Arizona (1-2): How in the world did they lose up at Seattle? Just 10 points? Is Beanie frickin' Wells that crucial to the operation? My conclusion, at the risk of being repetitive, is that their offensive line kinda stinks. Dare I say that Alex Smith has been the best quarterback in the division so far. Big one coming up for the Cards at home against the Giants.
25. Denver (1-2): They're a couple bounces away from 3-0, yet even then they would be of no concern or threat to anyone. Neat trick, that. LB Von Miller looks like the early front-runner for DROY and they'll be getting Elvis Dumervil and Champ Bailey back soon enough. Still, there's this general malaise about this team, this whiff of irrelevance. Their running game is a bit of a joke, and Kyle Orton is the wrong quarterback to ask to do move the ball singlehandedly. Things get grim on Sunday with a trip to Green Bay.
26. Cincinnati (1-2): The 49ers finally got Andy Dalton to look like a rookie quarterback last Sunday, but what struck me was that for the third time in three weeks their defense wasn't a liability. Sure, they haven't played anyone good, but still I thought the Bengals would be pretty bad on that end if they had to rely on guys like Manny Lawson and Nate Clements in the starting lineup. Now they host the Bills. I wonder if Buffalo is looking past them?
27. Miami (0-3): They absolutely should've killed Miami, but were done in by dumb penalties, bad luck and some jump balls. So it goes for this woebegone team. I'm just laughing that they've already pretty much given up on the idea of Reggie Bush: Running Back and have signed Steve Slaton on waivers. It doesn't get any easier this Sunday at San Diego.
28. Indianapolis (0-3): Even with Curtis Painter at quarterback, they have more talent at receiver, tight end and defensive end than the teams below them on this list. Still, the injuries mount, with LB Gary Brackett and S Melvin Bullitt are on IR. I'm guessing Peyton Manning wants to play in December just to avoid having to deal with having Andrew Luck as a teammate.
29. Seattle (1-2): Okay, the defense has looked spunky of late. And Sidney Rice did give the offense a boost. I remain skeptical. Lets see them show us something against the Falcons at home.
30. Jacksonville (1-2): Making the move to rookie Blaine Gabbert was the right call and the necessary one. If he struggles, so what? It's not like anybody is watching. Just move to LA already. Also, what the hell are they putting out there at receiver? Good lord.
31. St. Louis (0-3): Pretty embarrassing effort Sunday against Baltimore. How do you not show up at home like that? They need more speed at corner, which was a problem that plagued the 49ers for years. Offensively, the line is playing like I thought they'd play last year, and Sam Bradford is starting to get frustrated. I like Steve Spagnuolo a lot as a coach, so I was pretty disappointed to see him hire an asshat like Josh McDaniels to be his offensive coordinator.
32. Kansas City (0-3): Abandon all hope, ye who enter here.
********************************************************************
49ers Team Statistical Rankings, Presented Without Comment:
49ers Offensive Rankings:
Rushing: 69.7 YPG (30th); Yards Per Carry: 2.5 (31st); Rushing Touchdowns: 3 (T-5th);
Passing: 144.0 YPG (28th); Completion Percentage: 68.9 (T-4th); Yards Per Attempt: 6.8 (22nd);
Passing Touchdowns: 2 (T-26th); Interceptions: 1 (T-1st); Sacks: 11 (T-27th);
QB Rating: 91.3 (12th); 3rd Down Percentage: 32.6 (T-21st);
Yards Per Game: 213.7 (32nd); Scoring: 23.3 (12th)
49ers Defensive Rankings:
Rushing: 62.7 YPG (3rd); Yards Per Carry: 2.9 (T-1st); Rushing Touchdowns: 0 (T-1st)
Passing: 244.0 YPG (16th); Completion Percentage: 57.1 (T-6th); Yards Per Attempt: 7.0 (T-10th);
Passing Touchdowns: 5 (T-15th); Interceptions: 5 (T-2nd); Sacks: 7 (T-16th);
Fumbles Forced: 4 (T-8th); Fumbles Recovered: 3 (T-5th);
3rd Down Percentage: 30.8 (T-4th); Yards Per Game: 306.3 (7th); Scoring: 17.3 (4th)
49ers Special Teams Rankings:
Kickoff Return: 39.7 Avg (1st); Kickoff Return Allowed: 21.6 Avg (10th);
Punt Return: 13.0 Avg (8th); Punt Return Allowed: 9.6 Avg (18th);
Field Goal Percentage: 100.0 (T-1st); Net Punt Average: 47.4 Yards (2nd)
Giveaway/Takeaway:
Giveaways: 2 (T-1st); Takeaways: 8 (T-3rd); Plus/Minus: +6 (T-1st)
Monday, September 26, 2011
Defense, Smith, Rookie Backfield Key 49ers 13-8 Win at Cincinnati
Okay, so it wasn't exactly Montana-to-Taylor.
Still, for this fragile, rickety, scotch tape-and-paper clips 49ers offense, that 10-play, 72-yard touchdown march in the fourth quarter at Cincinnati's Paul Brown Stadium was a pretty big deal.
Not only did rookie Kendall Hunter's 7-yard scamper around left end give the visitors a lead they would not relinquish -- unlike last week, when they surrendered two separate double-digit leads to Dallas -- but it also allowed quarterback Alex Smith and his offensive mates to unburden themselves somewhat after they spent the better part of an afternoon being totally frustrated by an ordinary-at-best Bengals defense.
Let's start with Smith, as we always must.
The best thing that can be said about his first half is that he didn't turn it over. He underthrew Michael Crabtree twice, missed a couple of open receivers and took at least one sack due to indecisiveness. Generally speaking, he did nothing to absolve himself of blame from the goose egg on the 49ers end of the scoreboard.
However, he had by far his best second half of this young season, completing 11-of-13 passes for 127 yards and spreading the ball around. He was robbed of a third quarter touchdown pass to Crabtree by some horrid officiating and a lazy, incompetent FOX broadcast team that couldn't be bothered to give a damn.
Trailing 6-3 with 8:57 to go after a Frank Gore fumble cost them three points, Smith was 4-of-5 for 48 yards, with the last three completions going to Vernon Davis (8 receptions for 114 yards). Sprinkled in between those passes were stretch plays and tosses to the sparkplug Hunter, who got some meaningful playing time because Gore was either benched or hobbled by a second quarter ankle injury, whichever explanation suits you.
Gore did carry it once for four yards on 3rd-and-2 from the Cincinnati 31 on the drive, but was otherwise thoroughly stymied for the third straight afternoon, totaling 42 yards on 17 carries. You'll note the consistency of his 2.5 yards-per-carry average.
Overall it was the kind of game for Smith that might win him a couple of admirers in his locker room and some begrudging respect from a coach or two, but one that won't make a blip on the national consciousness. As far as the talking heads on the highlights go -- particularly the ex-players -- Smith's name is synonymous with a joke and two or three pretty passes to Davis aren't going to change that perception anytime soon. Neither will passing numbers after 60 minutes of work that typically resemble a good quarter for Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, et al.
While it's cliche for pundits to mention the revolving door of offensive coordinators and head coaches whenever they feel like making the obligatory excuse for Smith, what I find interesting that is that his supporting cast -- particularly that offensive line -- is hardly ever mentioned.
I mean good lord, when are people out there gonna wake up and realize that this offensive line is every bit the tire fire as the ones that get Jay Cutler and Michael Vick knocked around goofy week after week? At least those teams can run block somewhat. Gore has no holes. None. Or maybe he's just too slow to hit them these days. Hunter certainly had no problem cutting back and exploding through cracks on that fateful touchdown series.
The line got Smith sacked five times -- though he might have been responsible for two -- and committed six penalties as well. Right guard Chilo Rachal in particular was an abomination, with two sacks allowed, two holding penalties and a false start. He got benched in the second half for Adam Snyder, and one has to think that Jim Harbaugh is giving serious thought to making that switch permanent. Rachal has been definitively the worst lineman on the team for three years running now, which is a formidable accomplishment.
Looking at my notes, I have the least negative plays for left guard Mike Iupati, so I guess he wins the Best 49ers Offensive Lineman of the Game award, which is about as impressive as being the Best 49ers Fullback (nice debut for Bruce Miller with four grabs for 25 yards), the Best 49ers Free Safety or the Best NFC West Team Through Three Weeks. I've got it as Iupati, Jonathan Goodwin, Joe Staley, Adam Snyder, Anthony Davis and Rachal last. Your order may differ. Either way, we'd be arguing the aromatic and gastronomic semantics of various kinds of rotten fruit.
Also, it would be nice if just once somebody noticed that the receiving crew that Smith is working with isn't exactly the '99 St. Louis Rams. In fact, this bunch might rival Cleveland for the saddest wide out corps in the NFL. Braylon Edwards was supposed to change that, but he's hurt. Crabtree is maybe 70 percent at most and has had no training camp so he's rusty as hell. Smith has had to make do with Joshua Morgan, who is slow; and Ted Ginn, who is soft. Yes, the elite quarterbacks out there could make those guys look good. But if they had to work with these receivers and this offensive line? Well good luck to whoever wants to take that Pepsi Challenge.
Alright, enough whining on Smith's behalf. He certainly doesn't ask for my help and he could've left this place for greener pastures if he wanted to. After four thousand words I've spilled on what is charitably a mediocre offense, I suppose it's time to give credit to the fellas on the other side of the ball who were actually responsible for the win.
Obviously, having Dashon Goldson and Shawntae Spencer back in the secondary made a huge difference, and after a surprising opening drive for the Bengals, where rookie QB Andy Dalton sliced through them effortlessly, the defensive backs slammed the door the rest of the way, punctuated by late fourth quarter interceptions on consecutive series by Carlos Rogers and Reggie Smith.
Cincinnati only converted 1-of-10 third down conversions and for all intents and purposes the Niners held them to just that opening field goal for the whole game. The Bengals five other points came virtue of that Gore fumble early in the fourth quarter and from 49ers punter Andy Lee running backwards 18 yards to take a safety on purpose on the penultimate play of the game.
The run defense was stout as usual, holding Cedric Benson to just 64 yards to extend their league-leading streak of holding individual rushers below a hundred to 25 consecutive games. Surprisingly, the secondary was able to cover up Cincy's receivers without the benefit of a pass rush. Ahmad Brooks had one bone-rattling blindside sack of Dalton, but outside of that he was pressured but a handful of times and seldom hit.
Strong safety Donte Whitner suffered what he described after as a non-serious hip injury, but it impaired him enough to miss all but the opening series. Madieu Williams filled in admirably in his stead, as did C.J. Spillman and Smith, in spots. The odd man out was Tramaine Brock, whose nickel role was seized by Spencer, despite the fact that Brock had an interception in each of the past two games. That's a good call by the coaches, looking at the film and not the stat sheet. Spencer is a clear upgrade at that spot.
Rogers gets the game ball on defense from me, not only for his interception but also for making a touchdown-saving tackle of Benson on a run play after Gore's fumble. It forced the Bengals into a first-and-goal instead of a 10-3 lead and they stalled out three plays later. An honorable mention goes to linebacker NaVorro Bowman who was a tackle machine and has easily been the team's best linebacker through three games, despite having Patrick Willis as his partner inside. Spencer was solid in coverage and Goldson made his mark by laying the wood whenever he could. If only those two could've played last week, this team is probably 3-0.
It was an ugly game, but full credit to the Niners for being 2-for-2 in "must-wins" so far. For their efforts they're the sole leaders of the NFC West with a 2-1 record and they'll be in great shape if they can even one of their next three games on the sked (@Philadelphia, vs. Tampa Bay, @Detroit).
Still, for this fragile, rickety, scotch tape-and-paper clips 49ers offense, that 10-play, 72-yard touchdown march in the fourth quarter at Cincinnati's Paul Brown Stadium was a pretty big deal.
Not only did rookie Kendall Hunter's 7-yard scamper around left end give the visitors a lead they would not relinquish -- unlike last week, when they surrendered two separate double-digit leads to Dallas -- but it also allowed quarterback Alex Smith and his offensive mates to unburden themselves somewhat after they spent the better part of an afternoon being totally frustrated by an ordinary-at-best Bengals defense.
Let's start with Smith, as we always must.
The best thing that can be said about his first half is that he didn't turn it over. He underthrew Michael Crabtree twice, missed a couple of open receivers and took at least one sack due to indecisiveness. Generally speaking, he did nothing to absolve himself of blame from the goose egg on the 49ers end of the scoreboard.
However, he had by far his best second half of this young season, completing 11-of-13 passes for 127 yards and spreading the ball around. He was robbed of a third quarter touchdown pass to Crabtree by some horrid officiating and a lazy, incompetent FOX broadcast team that couldn't be bothered to give a damn.
Trailing 6-3 with 8:57 to go after a Frank Gore fumble cost them three points, Smith was 4-of-5 for 48 yards, with the last three completions going to Vernon Davis (8 receptions for 114 yards). Sprinkled in between those passes were stretch plays and tosses to the sparkplug Hunter, who got some meaningful playing time because Gore was either benched or hobbled by a second quarter ankle injury, whichever explanation suits you.
Gore did carry it once for four yards on 3rd-and-2 from the Cincinnati 31 on the drive, but was otherwise thoroughly stymied for the third straight afternoon, totaling 42 yards on 17 carries. You'll note the consistency of his 2.5 yards-per-carry average.
Overall it was the kind of game for Smith that might win him a couple of admirers in his locker room and some begrudging respect from a coach or two, but one that won't make a blip on the national consciousness. As far as the talking heads on the highlights go -- particularly the ex-players -- Smith's name is synonymous with a joke and two or three pretty passes to Davis aren't going to change that perception anytime soon. Neither will passing numbers after 60 minutes of work that typically resemble a good quarter for Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, et al.
While it's cliche for pundits to mention the revolving door of offensive coordinators and head coaches whenever they feel like making the obligatory excuse for Smith, what I find interesting that is that his supporting cast -- particularly that offensive line -- is hardly ever mentioned.
I mean good lord, when are people out there gonna wake up and realize that this offensive line is every bit the tire fire as the ones that get Jay Cutler and Michael Vick knocked around goofy week after week? At least those teams can run block somewhat. Gore has no holes. None. Or maybe he's just too slow to hit them these days. Hunter certainly had no problem cutting back and exploding through cracks on that fateful touchdown series.
The line got Smith sacked five times -- though he might have been responsible for two -- and committed six penalties as well. Right guard Chilo Rachal in particular was an abomination, with two sacks allowed, two holding penalties and a false start. He got benched in the second half for Adam Snyder, and one has to think that Jim Harbaugh is giving serious thought to making that switch permanent. Rachal has been definitively the worst lineman on the team for three years running now, which is a formidable accomplishment.
Looking at my notes, I have the least negative plays for left guard Mike Iupati, so I guess he wins the Best 49ers Offensive Lineman of the Game award, which is about as impressive as being the Best 49ers Fullback (nice debut for Bruce Miller with four grabs for 25 yards), the Best 49ers Free Safety or the Best NFC West Team Through Three Weeks. I've got it as Iupati, Jonathan Goodwin, Joe Staley, Adam Snyder, Anthony Davis and Rachal last. Your order may differ. Either way, we'd be arguing the aromatic and gastronomic semantics of various kinds of rotten fruit.
Also, it would be nice if just once somebody noticed that the receiving crew that Smith is working with isn't exactly the '99 St. Louis Rams. In fact, this bunch might rival Cleveland for the saddest wide out corps in the NFL. Braylon Edwards was supposed to change that, but he's hurt. Crabtree is maybe 70 percent at most and has had no training camp so he's rusty as hell. Smith has had to make do with Joshua Morgan, who is slow; and Ted Ginn, who is soft. Yes, the elite quarterbacks out there could make those guys look good. But if they had to work with these receivers and this offensive line? Well good luck to whoever wants to take that Pepsi Challenge.
Alright, enough whining on Smith's behalf. He certainly doesn't ask for my help and he could've left this place for greener pastures if he wanted to. After four thousand words I've spilled on what is charitably a mediocre offense, I suppose it's time to give credit to the fellas on the other side of the ball who were actually responsible for the win.
Obviously, having Dashon Goldson and Shawntae Spencer back in the secondary made a huge difference, and after a surprising opening drive for the Bengals, where rookie QB Andy Dalton sliced through them effortlessly, the defensive backs slammed the door the rest of the way, punctuated by late fourth quarter interceptions on consecutive series by Carlos Rogers and Reggie Smith.
Cincinnati only converted 1-of-10 third down conversions and for all intents and purposes the Niners held them to just that opening field goal for the whole game. The Bengals five other points came virtue of that Gore fumble early in the fourth quarter and from 49ers punter Andy Lee running backwards 18 yards to take a safety on purpose on the penultimate play of the game.
The run defense was stout as usual, holding Cedric Benson to just 64 yards to extend their league-leading streak of holding individual rushers below a hundred to 25 consecutive games. Surprisingly, the secondary was able to cover up Cincy's receivers without the benefit of a pass rush. Ahmad Brooks had one bone-rattling blindside sack of Dalton, but outside of that he was pressured but a handful of times and seldom hit.
Strong safety Donte Whitner suffered what he described after as a non-serious hip injury, but it impaired him enough to miss all but the opening series. Madieu Williams filled in admirably in his stead, as did C.J. Spillman and Smith, in spots. The odd man out was Tramaine Brock, whose nickel role was seized by Spencer, despite the fact that Brock had an interception in each of the past two games. That's a good call by the coaches, looking at the film and not the stat sheet. Spencer is a clear upgrade at that spot.
Rogers gets the game ball on defense from me, not only for his interception but also for making a touchdown-saving tackle of Benson on a run play after Gore's fumble. It forced the Bengals into a first-and-goal instead of a 10-3 lead and they stalled out three plays later. An honorable mention goes to linebacker NaVorro Bowman who was a tackle machine and has easily been the team's best linebacker through three games, despite having Patrick Willis as his partner inside. Spencer was solid in coverage and Goldson made his mark by laying the wood whenever he could. If only those two could've played last week, this team is probably 3-0.
It was an ugly game, but full credit to the Niners for being 2-for-2 in "must-wins" so far. For their efforts they're the sole leaders of the NFC West with a 2-1 record and they'll be in great shape if they can even one of their next three games on the sked (@Philadelphia, vs. Tampa Bay, @Detroit).
Friday, September 23, 2011
NorCal Niners Ship Off To Cincy, Hope To Not Get Smoked By Bengals
Will Sunday be the most meaningful match-up between your plucky San Francisco 49ers and the woebegone Cincinnati Bengals? Historically, not so much. To the principals involved, however, far more so.
While it seems silly to declare any game in Week 3 a "must-win" a loss here would be quite perilous for the 49ers indeed. They already upchucked a ten point fourth quarter lead to lose in dispiriting fashion to the Cowboys. If they drop this one too, that would qualify what we in the biz call "a losing streak."
They're at Philadelphia next week (they'll spend the time in between the two games at Youngstown, Ohio, the hometown of the DeBartolo family, where the players will be reminded a time or twelve that this organization used to win games far more often under the previous owner), then home against a Tampa Bay team that walloped 'em 21-0 at the 'Stick last season, and then on the road against a Lions squad that just scored another touchdown against the Chiefs while you were reading this sentence.
Without a dub against the Bengals, where exactly would the losing streak end? Sure, 1-5 would only have them a game or so out of contention in the NFC Worst (see what I did there?), but still it just looks so bad in print. 1-5. It makes your lips curl in disgust just looking at it, right?
Here's the bad news, dear gentle reader. The 49ers have been downright atrocious on the road the past two seasons, especially in 10 a.m. PST starts. Last year their first such game was at Kansas City. The whole week the Niners, who were 0-2 at the time, talked about how much they needed the game and the Chiefs certainly didn't look like world beaters. San Francisco got trounced 31-10, with their touchdown coming on the final play of the game, because doggone it we play to the final whistle, that's why. Afterward, the coaching staff admitted that they worked the players too hard in practice leading up to the game and their charges didn't have their legs for the game.
Excuses were made for 10 a.m. losses at Atlanta (Nate Clements' fumble); at Carolina (Alex Smith got hurt and David Carr was David Carr); at Green Bay (they're way better than us) and St. Louis (coach started the wrong Smith).
The only early start they won was against the Broncos, and that was a special circumstance in that A) it was a neutral site game at London where the fans were clearly behind them and B) they flew to England directly from Carolina and had time to adjust their body clocks.
In 2009 the 49ers lost early road games, albeit in close, heartbreaking fashion to Minnesota, Houston and Indianapolis and the more traditional way you've become begrudgingly accustomed to at Green Bay and Philly. Their lone road win came in a meaningless Week 17 game at St. Louis, which landed the Rams Sam Bradford in the following draft.
So now they're three point dogs against a Bengals outfit that's starting a rookie quarterback in Andy Dalton, who the 49ers would've picked in the draft had Cincinnati chosen Colin Kaepernick instead.
Dalton, who NFL Films analyst Greg Cosell characterized as a quarterback who "in many ways what (Alex) Smith is not," has not had a turnover in two games and has been far more impressive than expected. "He has very good pocket poise, very good command," Cosell noted. "(He) does not have a big arm, but he sort of makes up for it with his sense of timing and anticipation – two things that Alex Smith doesn’t do very well... He’s very decisive. He knows where to go with the football. The ball comes out quick."
It simply won't do for the 49ers to have Dalton show up Smith while Kaepernick, who looked completely unprepared for this level, watches helplessly from the bench. Then again, Kaepernick may have to check in, whether he's ready or not. It was revealed on Wednesday -- on an emailed practice injury report that pinged my inbox at 4:38 p.m. -- that Smith suffered a concussion against Dallas, presumably on a second quarter sack by Anthony Spencer. It would've been nice for the team to mention it during the interview sessions with Smith and Jim Harbaugh hours before, but that's SOP at 49ers land, where they've always been at war with Eurasia.
Smith said that he knew something was off, but that he felt he could play through it and that he didn't tell anyone until after the game. He went through all the testing and protocols at Stanford Hospital and was cleared to practice by Wednesday. It will be interesting to see what kind of protection he gets and the hits he takes on Sunday, being protected by a spotty offensive line that has a rep for being a step slow on the snap count in road games.
However, there is cause for some optimism.
Despite Dalton's hot start, the Bengals remain a run-first offense. Cedric Benson was suspended for three games by the league for off-season shenanigans, but he will appeal and play on Sunday. Good. The one thing the 49ers do really well is shut down the run. Every time Dalton hands off the ball, whether it's to Benson, or his backup Bernard Scott, or to Ickey Woods for that matter, he's doing the Niners a favor.
Conversely, the Bengals are only 16th in the league at stopping the run through two weeks, which might offer Frank Gore a crack of hope that he'll have more than a crack of running room on Sunday. It should also help Gore -- though he'd never admit it -- that fullback Moran Norris will be out with a fibula injury. The offense will have for more success running the ball if they spread the Bengals out and run draws rather than using seven offensive linemen, two tight ends and a fullback like something out of a Knute Rockne training video.
Another advantage the 49ers will have is getting to face guys like Nate Clements and Manny Lawson, and perhaps, if they ask really nicely, Taylor Mays. The Niners castoffs are still getting used to playing in a 4-3 scheme, and the early reviews haven't been good. Lawson has totaled three tackles while making no plays of note while Clements was toasted all game long by the immortal Eric Decker last week at Denver. Smith won't have Braylon Edwards' services on Sunday (out a minimum of three weeks with a knee injury), but he will get Michael Crabtree back, so that should be a wash.
The Bengals will be without pass-rusher Dontay Moch and two of their top three wideouts. Jordan Shipley tore his ACL against the Broncos and Jerome Simpson's availability looks hazy now that the police confiscated 8.5 pounds of marijuana from his Kentucky home (2.5 pounds shipped from California and another six pounds that was already on site). Police allegedly found distribution materials in the joint as well, including baggies and scales, so apparently Simpson was setting up a nice little side business for himself. Now those plans have gone up in smoke. Dalton's Super Bowl hopes have taken a hit now that his receiving corps has gone to pot, unless, that is, it turns out that Andre Caldwell has been laying in the weeds all along. Marijuana.
Must-win game? No. However, these are the kinds of games teams win if they're serious about winning divisions. They've got to get at least eight to sneak into the postseason and they only play six against their division rivals, so do the math. Besides, 1 p.m. is far too early to have your entire Sunday ruined and there might not be any "medicine" left now that Jerome Simpson bought it all.
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Other NFL thoughts, from a man who went 0-15-1 vs. the spread last week. Seriously, this happened. I feel like the sportsbooks at Vegas should put it on some sort of commemorative plaque or at least send me a T-shirt or something. Picking the line by its very nature is a 50/50 proposition and I'm just as mathematically likely to go 15-0-1 next week, except for the fact that A) I will never, EVER, go 15-0-1 and B) if I did, without betting a penny on the games, I'd probably take a flying header off the press box.
NY Giants at Philadelphia (-6): It's been announced that Michael Vick is playing, and that's good enough for me against a battered Giants defense. For all the heat his offensive line has taken, it's worth mentioning that Vick wasn't sacked at all against Atlanta and that his concussion came on a fluke play when he banged his head against his lineman's leg. Unless the Giants run for 200 yards, Philly wins fairly easily in their home opener. Eagles 30, Giants 20. **THREE POINT SPECIAL**
San Francisco at Cincinnati (-3): Simply put if Harbaugh is at all a better coach than Mike Singletary, the Niners find a way to pull this one out. 49ers 23, Bengals 17.
Detroit at Minnesota (+4): Good lord, Calvin Johnson might turn Nate Burleson into a Pro Bowler this year and even rookie Titus Young contributed to last week's throttling of the Chiefs. No one is running harder than Adrian Peterson, but I think Donovan McNabb is shot and they don't have much deep speed to hurt the Lions. Lions 26, Vikings 20.
New England at Buffalo (+9): The Bills can run it and throw it and the Patriots secondary is suffering in a bad way (they signed ex-49er Phillip Adams this week). I'm calling the upset because Bill Belichick likes to blow one against a soft team early in the year to get his guys' attention for the rest of the year. Bills 34, Patriots 31.
Miami at Cleveland (-3): Ugh. The Dolphins, oddly enough, have been better on the road the past couple years, the Browns have no receivers and Peyton Hillis is not feeling well. Despite all of that, I'm done with Miami after they let me down last week against the Texans. Browns 20, Dolphins 13.
Denver at Tennessee (-7): Ugh, part deux. The league might prefer if Kenny Britt quietly went away, but the guy is good. Really, really good. Chris Johnson, meanwhile, is running less convincingly than Javon Ringer. The Titans had a great pass rush against Baltimore last week. Titans 27, Broncos 17.
Houston at New Orleans (-4): The Texans are quietly morphing into a run-first team before our very eyes, and why not with Arian Foster and Ben Tate (who's like a poor man's Adrian Peterson)? I'm not about to bet against the Saints at home again though after the way they destroyed Jay Cutler. Saints 34, Texans 20. **FIVE POINT SPECIAL**
Jacksonville at Carolina (-4): A previously unwatchable game gets a bit of intrigue with the word that Blaine Gabbert will be making his first start for the Jaguars. The Panthers should be running more, but it's like they've decided to forgo wins and losses and strategy and have dedicated the season to getting Newton as many reps as possible for when they'll try in 2012. Panthers 26, Jaguars 13. **TWO POINT SPECIAL**
NY Jets at Oakland (+4): Raiders offense looked very impressive last week at Buffalo, especially without Jacoby Ford or Kevin Boss, but now they're gonna face somebody who's going to make them work. Look for the Jets to get their running game going this week. Jets 20, Raiders 9.
Baltimore at St. Louis (+4): The Ravens don't often play two stinkers in a row and the Rams have some fundamental problems on both sides of the ball. I don't know how they stop Ray Rice on that turf. Ravens 27, Rams 20.
Kansas City at San Diego (-15): Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, Mike Tolbert, Ryan Mathews against a Chiefs defense that has allowed 89 points in two games. Yikes. Philip Rivers is due for a clean game, right? Chargers 41, Chiefs 13.
Green Bay at Chicago (+4): What's with all these four point lines? For whatever reason the Bears seem to be able to slow down Aaron Rodgers and co. better than anyone else can, but how can anyone possibly trust their offense line to keep Cutler upright? With all the faces Cutler makes on the field and on the sidelines, why would they want to? Packers 23, Bears 13.
Arizona at Seattle (+4): Here's my theory: I don't think Seattle is trying. Lets see if I'm right. Cardinals 27, Seahawks 17.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-1): No one who watched that game seriously thinks the Falcons would come within 14 points of Philly if they met in the playoffs, right? Impressive comeback from Josh Freeman last week at Minnesota, more so because his primary receiver was Preston Parker. Buccaneers 27, Falcons 20.
Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (+11): 11 points is a lot for a home dog and I don't think the Steelers are built for two straight blowouts. A humble road win against an undermanned opponent for the defending AFC Champs, where they'll run the ball a lot and keep the fancy stuff in their back pockets. Steelers 23, Colts 14.
Washington at Dallas (even): Tony Romo is likely playing, though he shouldn't. Jon Kitna would be a whole lot better with a week to prepare, knowing he's going to play, than he was last week when he was just thrown in there. It's Dallas' home opener and I'm not quite ready to take the Redskins seriously. They pull this game out, and I'm aboard. Cowboys 27, Redskins 10. **FOUR POINT SPECIAL**
Week 2 Record: 8-8
Total Record: 19-13
Week 2 Vs. Spread: 0-15-1
Total Vs. Spread: 8-22-2
Week 2 +/- Points (All games count as one point unless otherwise specified): -25
Total +/- Points: -30
While it seems silly to declare any game in Week 3 a "must-win" a loss here would be quite perilous for the 49ers indeed. They already upchucked a ten point fourth quarter lead to lose in dispiriting fashion to the Cowboys. If they drop this one too, that would qualify what we in the biz call "a losing streak."
They're at Philadelphia next week (they'll spend the time in between the two games at Youngstown, Ohio, the hometown of the DeBartolo family, where the players will be reminded a time or twelve that this organization used to win games far more often under the previous owner), then home against a Tampa Bay team that walloped 'em 21-0 at the 'Stick last season, and then on the road against a Lions squad that just scored another touchdown against the Chiefs while you were reading this sentence.
Without a dub against the Bengals, where exactly would the losing streak end? Sure, 1-5 would only have them a game or so out of contention in the NFC Worst (see what I did there?), but still it just looks so bad in print. 1-5. It makes your lips curl in disgust just looking at it, right?
Here's the bad news, dear gentle reader. The 49ers have been downright atrocious on the road the past two seasons, especially in 10 a.m. PST starts. Last year their first such game was at Kansas City. The whole week the Niners, who were 0-2 at the time, talked about how much they needed the game and the Chiefs certainly didn't look like world beaters. San Francisco got trounced 31-10, with their touchdown coming on the final play of the game, because doggone it we play to the final whistle, that's why. Afterward, the coaching staff admitted that they worked the players too hard in practice leading up to the game and their charges didn't have their legs for the game.
Excuses were made for 10 a.m. losses at Atlanta (Nate Clements' fumble); at Carolina (Alex Smith got hurt and David Carr was David Carr); at Green Bay (they're way better than us) and St. Louis (coach started the wrong Smith).
The only early start they won was against the Broncos, and that was a special circumstance in that A) it was a neutral site game at London where the fans were clearly behind them and B) they flew to England directly from Carolina and had time to adjust their body clocks.
In 2009 the 49ers lost early road games, albeit in close, heartbreaking fashion to Minnesota, Houston and Indianapolis and the more traditional way you've become begrudgingly accustomed to at Green Bay and Philly. Their lone road win came in a meaningless Week 17 game at St. Louis, which landed the Rams Sam Bradford in the following draft.
So now they're three point dogs against a Bengals outfit that's starting a rookie quarterback in Andy Dalton, who the 49ers would've picked in the draft had Cincinnati chosen Colin Kaepernick instead.
Dalton, who NFL Films analyst Greg Cosell characterized as a quarterback who "in many ways what (Alex) Smith is not," has not had a turnover in two games and has been far more impressive than expected. "He has very good pocket poise, very good command," Cosell noted. "(He) does not have a big arm, but he sort of makes up for it with his sense of timing and anticipation – two things that Alex Smith doesn’t do very well... He’s very decisive. He knows where to go with the football. The ball comes out quick."
It simply won't do for the 49ers to have Dalton show up Smith while Kaepernick, who looked completely unprepared for this level, watches helplessly from the bench. Then again, Kaepernick may have to check in, whether he's ready or not. It was revealed on Wednesday -- on an emailed practice injury report that pinged my inbox at 4:38 p.m. -- that Smith suffered a concussion against Dallas, presumably on a second quarter sack by Anthony Spencer. It would've been nice for the team to mention it during the interview sessions with Smith and Jim Harbaugh hours before, but that's SOP at 49ers land, where they've always been at war with Eurasia.
Smith said that he knew something was off, but that he felt he could play through it and that he didn't tell anyone until after the game. He went through all the testing and protocols at Stanford Hospital and was cleared to practice by Wednesday. It will be interesting to see what kind of protection he gets and the hits he takes on Sunday, being protected by a spotty offensive line that has a rep for being a step slow on the snap count in road games.
However, there is cause for some optimism.
Despite Dalton's hot start, the Bengals remain a run-first offense. Cedric Benson was suspended for three games by the league for off-season shenanigans, but he will appeal and play on Sunday. Good. The one thing the 49ers do really well is shut down the run. Every time Dalton hands off the ball, whether it's to Benson, or his backup Bernard Scott, or to Ickey Woods for that matter, he's doing the Niners a favor.
Conversely, the Bengals are only 16th in the league at stopping the run through two weeks, which might offer Frank Gore a crack of hope that he'll have more than a crack of running room on Sunday. It should also help Gore -- though he'd never admit it -- that fullback Moran Norris will be out with a fibula injury. The offense will have for more success running the ball if they spread the Bengals out and run draws rather than using seven offensive linemen, two tight ends and a fullback like something out of a Knute Rockne training video.
Another advantage the 49ers will have is getting to face guys like Nate Clements and Manny Lawson, and perhaps, if they ask really nicely, Taylor Mays. The Niners castoffs are still getting used to playing in a 4-3 scheme, and the early reviews haven't been good. Lawson has totaled three tackles while making no plays of note while Clements was toasted all game long by the immortal Eric Decker last week at Denver. Smith won't have Braylon Edwards' services on Sunday (out a minimum of three weeks with a knee injury), but he will get Michael Crabtree back, so that should be a wash.
The Bengals will be without pass-rusher Dontay Moch and two of their top three wideouts. Jordan Shipley tore his ACL against the Broncos and Jerome Simpson's availability looks hazy now that the police confiscated 8.5 pounds of marijuana from his Kentucky home (2.5 pounds shipped from California and another six pounds that was already on site). Police allegedly found distribution materials in the joint as well, including baggies and scales, so apparently Simpson was setting up a nice little side business for himself. Now those plans have gone up in smoke. Dalton's Super Bowl hopes have taken a hit now that his receiving corps has gone to pot, unless, that is, it turns out that Andre Caldwell has been laying in the weeds all along. Marijuana.
Must-win game? No. However, these are the kinds of games teams win if they're serious about winning divisions. They've got to get at least eight to sneak into the postseason and they only play six against their division rivals, so do the math. Besides, 1 p.m. is far too early to have your entire Sunday ruined and there might not be any "medicine" left now that Jerome Simpson bought it all.
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Other NFL thoughts, from a man who went 0-15-1 vs. the spread last week. Seriously, this happened. I feel like the sportsbooks at Vegas should put it on some sort of commemorative plaque or at least send me a T-shirt or something. Picking the line by its very nature is a 50/50 proposition and I'm just as mathematically likely to go 15-0-1 next week, except for the fact that A) I will never, EVER, go 15-0-1 and B) if I did, without betting a penny on the games, I'd probably take a flying header off the press box.
NY Giants at Philadelphia (-6): It's been announced that Michael Vick is playing, and that's good enough for me against a battered Giants defense. For all the heat his offensive line has taken, it's worth mentioning that Vick wasn't sacked at all against Atlanta and that his concussion came on a fluke play when he banged his head against his lineman's leg. Unless the Giants run for 200 yards, Philly wins fairly easily in their home opener. Eagles 30, Giants 20. **THREE POINT SPECIAL**
San Francisco at Cincinnati (-3): Simply put if Harbaugh is at all a better coach than Mike Singletary, the Niners find a way to pull this one out. 49ers 23, Bengals 17.
Detroit at Minnesota (+4): Good lord, Calvin Johnson might turn Nate Burleson into a Pro Bowler this year and even rookie Titus Young contributed to last week's throttling of the Chiefs. No one is running harder than Adrian Peterson, but I think Donovan McNabb is shot and they don't have much deep speed to hurt the Lions. Lions 26, Vikings 20.
New England at Buffalo (+9): The Bills can run it and throw it and the Patriots secondary is suffering in a bad way (they signed ex-49er Phillip Adams this week). I'm calling the upset because Bill Belichick likes to blow one against a soft team early in the year to get his guys' attention for the rest of the year. Bills 34, Patriots 31.
Miami at Cleveland (-3): Ugh. The Dolphins, oddly enough, have been better on the road the past couple years, the Browns have no receivers and Peyton Hillis is not feeling well. Despite all of that, I'm done with Miami after they let me down last week against the Texans. Browns 20, Dolphins 13.
Denver at Tennessee (-7): Ugh, part deux. The league might prefer if Kenny Britt quietly went away, but the guy is good. Really, really good. Chris Johnson, meanwhile, is running less convincingly than Javon Ringer. The Titans had a great pass rush against Baltimore last week. Titans 27, Broncos 17.
Houston at New Orleans (-4): The Texans are quietly morphing into a run-first team before our very eyes, and why not with Arian Foster and Ben Tate (who's like a poor man's Adrian Peterson)? I'm not about to bet against the Saints at home again though after the way they destroyed Jay Cutler. Saints 34, Texans 20. **FIVE POINT SPECIAL**
Jacksonville at Carolina (-4): A previously unwatchable game gets a bit of intrigue with the word that Blaine Gabbert will be making his first start for the Jaguars. The Panthers should be running more, but it's like they've decided to forgo wins and losses and strategy and have dedicated the season to getting Newton as many reps as possible for when they'll try in 2012. Panthers 26, Jaguars 13. **TWO POINT SPECIAL**
NY Jets at Oakland (+4): Raiders offense looked very impressive last week at Buffalo, especially without Jacoby Ford or Kevin Boss, but now they're gonna face somebody who's going to make them work. Look for the Jets to get their running game going this week. Jets 20, Raiders 9.
Baltimore at St. Louis (+4): The Ravens don't often play two stinkers in a row and the Rams have some fundamental problems on both sides of the ball. I don't know how they stop Ray Rice on that turf. Ravens 27, Rams 20.
Kansas City at San Diego (-15): Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, Mike Tolbert, Ryan Mathews against a Chiefs defense that has allowed 89 points in two games. Yikes. Philip Rivers is due for a clean game, right? Chargers 41, Chiefs 13.
Green Bay at Chicago (+4): What's with all these four point lines? For whatever reason the Bears seem to be able to slow down Aaron Rodgers and co. better than anyone else can, but how can anyone possibly trust their offense line to keep Cutler upright? With all the faces Cutler makes on the field and on the sidelines, why would they want to? Packers 23, Bears 13.
Arizona at Seattle (+4): Here's my theory: I don't think Seattle is trying. Lets see if I'm right. Cardinals 27, Seahawks 17.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-1): No one who watched that game seriously thinks the Falcons would come within 14 points of Philly if they met in the playoffs, right? Impressive comeback from Josh Freeman last week at Minnesota, more so because his primary receiver was Preston Parker. Buccaneers 27, Falcons 20.
Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (+11): 11 points is a lot for a home dog and I don't think the Steelers are built for two straight blowouts. A humble road win against an undermanned opponent for the defending AFC Champs, where they'll run the ball a lot and keep the fancy stuff in their back pockets. Steelers 23, Colts 14.
Washington at Dallas (even): Tony Romo is likely playing, though he shouldn't. Jon Kitna would be a whole lot better with a week to prepare, knowing he's going to play, than he was last week when he was just thrown in there. It's Dallas' home opener and I'm not quite ready to take the Redskins seriously. They pull this game out, and I'm aboard. Cowboys 27, Redskins 10. **FOUR POINT SPECIAL**
Week 2 Record: 8-8
Total Record: 19-13
Week 2 Vs. Spread: 0-15-1
Total Vs. Spread: 8-22-2
Week 2 +/- Points (All games count as one point unless otherwise specified): -25
Total +/- Points: -30
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Winners and Losers from Sunday; Injury Updates; 49ers Statistical Rankings
So, what are we to take from the 49ers loss to the Cowboys? Are they the team that broke Tony Romo's ribs or the one that just sacked him once while getting eviscerated to the tune of 427 passing yards? Are they the offense that had Dallas totally flummoxed on third down, converting 8-of-10 first half opportunities despite being without their top two receivers; or the one that got sacked six times and shutout in third down conversions in the second half and overtime?
Most of all, are they the outfit that got out-gained 472 yards to 206 by a Dallas team that was missing Dez Bryant, Terence Newman and Orlando Scandrick and who had Romo, and his top three skill players all get banged up during the game; or the ones who were one play away from winning the game on two separate occasions? Indeed all the 49ers needed was a stop on 4th-and-5 or for for Cowboys kicker Dan Bailey, who hooked a 21-yard attempt in the first quarter, to do so again with a 48-yarder at the gun. Instead, the S.O.B hit one so down the middle that it would've been good in the Arena League.
Bill Parcells was fond of saying "You are what your record says you are," but with all due respect to that miserable bastard, there are games where a loss is a win and and games where a win is a loss. Then there are those wins that count double and losses that crush whole seasons. So with that, here are the winners and losers to take away from the 27-24 overtime loss:
Winners:
StubHub: First and foremost. They must have made a killing with their service charges and hidden fees and whatnot, accommodating all those Cowboys fans. Good lord, I was half expecting to see 10-gallon hats and bolo ties in the press box.
Jim Harbaugh: For one half darn near every play he dialed up was working. They were picking up all of Dallas blitzes, and Smith was finding guys open on out routes and hitches and converting third downs. The game plan showed, definitively, that they were indeed "saving" some things for the Cowboys that they didn't use the week before against Seattle. As we go, I would expect the offense to open up more and more and for Harbaugh to find answers to how people are playing his guys.
Alex Smith: Was he as good as his stats suggest? Well, no. But he made a number of fine throws, including perfect touchdown strikes to Kyle Williams and Delanie Walker and even his improvised rollout bomb to Frank Gore looked to be on the money before Bradie James took an interference penalty to break it up. Also, he gets credit for having to make do without his starting receivers and for not fumbling on all those shots he took in the second half.
Kyle Williams: Yeah, the kid has just one pass thrown his way, but he made a great catch in the corner of the end zone and will likely see more playing time with Braylon Edwards out and Michael Crabtree limping around. I've said it before, he probably runs the best slant route on the team, and with his quickness and run-after-catch ability, Williams is the one guy who can burn blitzes by taking a short hot route a long way. We'll have to see if it comes into play.
Bruce Miller: The first two games couldn't have gone much better for him. The guy in front of him on the depth chart, Moran Norris, has been a tire fire thus far, and now he's injured. Miller will crack the lineup this Sunday.
Ray McDonald: Not a great game, but another sack and one other hit on Romo. Two games in, he's looked every bit the $4 million defensive end. Kudos.
NaVorro Bowman: Not only has he held up well against the run, but he was better in coverage than just about any 49er on Sunday. He broke up two passes and I can't remember any that he gave up. Would've liked to seen him blitz more though.
Carlos Rogers: He was beaten two or three times, but he got his hand (or his head) on quite a few as well. Everyone will remember the overtime play to Jesse Holley, but for three-and-a-half quarters Rogers played outstanding football.
Losers:
49ers fans: You ought to be ashamed of yourselves. Yes, your stadium is an eyesore. Yes, the parking situation is an abomination. Yes, there was potential for crowd violence a la the preseason mess with Oakland. Still, your team isn't that bad and it's downright embarrassing that it turned into a Cowboys home game. The crowd was -- and this is conservative -- at least 55 percent in favor of Dallas. Perhaps it was a gigantic middle finger to ownership, who had gotten the message out in advance of the game that they wanted the stands to be "a sea of red." Maybe it was a way of telling the Yorks "We'll buy your gear and show up to your games when you get a legitimate stadium and some good players."
Or maybe everyone in California is broke and a buck is a buck.
Jim Harbaugh: Save for one nice play-call late in the third quarter where Smith found Walker matched up one-on-one by outside linebacker Anthony Spencer and took advantage, Harbaugh and Greg Roman couldn't draw up anything to bail the offense. Three times Smith rolled out or executed play-fakes where there was an unblocked rusher waiting to meet him, and any plan that calls for DeMarcus Ware to not be accounted for seems pretty stupid to me.
Too often the plays they were trying were too cute, the kind of calls designed to take advantage of over-aggressive, inexperienced front sevens. Dallas was aggressive, but they've got a lot of veterans there who know how to read tells and diagnose plays. I think a couple times the 49ers assumed that when the Cowboys had six or seven snarling guys at the line that at least two or three would drop back in coverage and the line would be able to zone up whoever rushed. Instead, Dallas just sent everyone and that left people who weren't blocked. If the Cowboys guessed correctly on who the hot route was, Smith didn't have time to look for a second option and he was toast.
Of course Harbaugh's biggest blunder was taking the field goal with 11:12 to go to push the score to 24-14 instead of accepting a 1st-and-ten at Dallas' 22-yard-line, but we covered that extensively on Monday.
Alex Smith: How much blame does he deserve for not adjusting the line to pick up some of those blitzes in the second half or for not audibling out of bad plays? It's hard to say because we don't know the extent of his responsibilities. Maybe he did change the protections and guys simply missed their assignments. What we can blame Smith for are two throws that came back-to-back in the third quarter. On the interception he thought Davis was running a button hook. Davis, however, correctly adjusted his route to an out when he saw how much room he had to the sideline. Even if he ran the hook that Smith wanted, Dallas' Alan Ball undercut it and still would've picked it off. Smith's real sin, however, was the play before, when he rolled left and badly overshot a wide open Walker, who would've gained enough yards for a first down.
Also, I think he should've lobbied Harbaugh more, not just to keep the ball
after that penalty on Akers' field goal, but even before that, when Harbaugh elected to kick on 4th-and-1 from the 37. A good quarterback fights these decisions, but it's simply not in Smith's nature to be confrontational or argumentative.
Kendall Hunter: Welcome to life in the NFL, kid. You happened to get drafted by a team where the running back has more influence in the organization than the quarterback does. Don't worry, you'll get a chance to play when Gore gets his inevitable injury in a couple weeks.
Vernon Davis: He was asked to block a bunch against Dallas on pass plays (didn't work) and doubled when he did go on routes. These things will happen without Crabtree and Edwards. Davis is already grumpy with Harbaugh, but the 49ers do have a few games coming up against teams who can't cover tight ends well.
Jonathan Goodwin: Beaten soundly by Jay Ratliff two or three times, leading to sacks on Smith, including one in overtime that torpedoed the 49ers last chance of winning the game. He also had a terrible shotgun snap that Smith did well to turn into a positive play.
Mike Iupati: Whiffed on blocks in the run game and pass game. Continues to be confused by stunts and twists. Worst of all, I don't sense any fire from him at all.
Joe Staley: Beaten for one sack by Ware but a lot of the pressure Dallas had came from the gap between him and Iupati.
Chilo Rachal: Still getting subbed out for Adam Snyder a couple series per game. That should tell you something.
Anthony Davis: The 49ers best lineman on Sunday. Which is like being their handsomest beat reporter.
Moran Norris: Somewhere in the NFL there must be a worse starting fullback, but I can't think of one of the top off my head.
Ahmad Brooks: What a ticky-tack neutral zone call that was, giving Dallas new life and turning what should've been at the worst a 14-0 halftime lead into 14-7. Still, Ahmad, dude, you're looking right at the ball. It's 3rd-and-forever. Get a full foot behind it, just to be safe.
Tarell Brown: Beaten regularly by the likes of Holley and Kevin Ogletree. Shawntae Spencer will claim the starting job any day now.
Tramaine Brock: Nice interception and all, but putting him in the slot against Miles Austin was painful to watch. He's gonna be the odd man out of the lineup.
Donte Whitner: Witten chewed him up all afternoon. Just a hopeless match-up. Bit on a play-fake in overtime (as did Rogers), which was silly because Dallas hasn't been able to run the ball since last October.
Madieu Williams: P-U.
Reggie Smith: How stiff are those hips? I thought the 49ers traded Taylor Mays away.
Does that seem unfair, to have far more losers than winners? Well, I repeat, the yardage was 472 to 206. Should we throw the 49ers a parade? The offensive line is a sieve and the defense looks very vulnerable when people stretch them out and forget about running. I was disappointed in Vic Fangio for not calling more blitzes and trying to confuse Romo a bit. Instead the Niners got dinked-and-dunked to death in fine Greg Manusky fashion. We'll see if he gets any trickier against a rookie QB this Sunday in Cincinnati's Andy Dalton. It won't do to have him be less confused out there than Smith.
************************************************************************
Injury notes:
Harbaugh, in a rare lapse of his usual thousand-yard stare and dismissive non-answer routine, actually revealed that Braylon Edwards "will be out a bit" and that the receiver "underwent a procedure" on his knee. Look for Edwards to be out until the seventh game, home vs. his former club, the Browns. The Niners have their bye before that and the sixth game is on the turf at Detroit, so I think it'll be a stretch to see him play in that one, though a losing streak may change the prognosis. That's what makes this Cincinnati game so important. They simply have to win it, because the schedule gets pretty hairy the three weeks after that.
Harbaugh also said that Michael Crabtree will "most likely" play on Sunday. We saw Crabtree running routes at what looked to be full speed in individual drills, but at his locker he didn't look like someone champing at the bit to go get 'em. "It's only been three days," he said. "How much different could (his foot injury) be in three days?"
Crabtree was just "limited" in practice on Wednesday, per the official report, so we'll see.
My feeling: Crabtree really wanted to play against his hometown Cowboys and was disappointed about not getting the chance. He's probably not nearly as stoked about facing the Bengals. He'll play, but...
Alex Smith apparently sustained a concussion during Sunday's game. Nice enough for them to mention it on Wednesday, on an injury report that was sent in at 4:38 p.m... Smith seemed lucid enough during his press conference and was a full participant in practice, so it must have been a minor one.
Shawntae Spencer told CSN Bay Area's Mindi Bach that he's been practicing in full for two weeks and he's completely healed from his hamstring injury. However, he said that coaches want to see how he fits into the scheme on the practice field before throwing him out there in games. He added that he understands the scheme, but has to convince them of that. The way Brown and Brock have played, I think Spencer will get his chance, and soon.
Dashon Goldson also looked spry during individual drills, and I think he's the starter this week unless he has some kind of set back. The team desperately needs him back because both Madieu Williams and Reggie Smith were liabilities on Sunday. The team missed Goldson a lot more than they missed Spencer or Crabtree or even Edwards.
Moran Norris' injury was revealed to be a fibula problem, and despite him telling Maiocco that he's "fine" the team already declared him out for Sunday. Good lord.
Are you ready for Bruce Miller?
*******************************************************************************
49ers Statistical Rankings, presented without comment.
49ers Offensive Rankings:
Rushing: 79.5 YPG (26th); Yards Per Carry: 2.8 (29th);
Rushing Touchdowns: 2 (T-6th);
Passing: 128.0 YPG (29th); Completion Percentage (T-4th);
Yards Per Attempt: 6.9 (T-21st);
Passing Touchdowns: 2 (T-23rd); Interceptions: 1 (T-5th);
Sacks: 6 (T-22nd);
QB Rating: 95.2 (11th); 3rd Down Percentage: 32.1 (23rd);
Yards Per Game: 207.5 (31st); Scoring: 28.5 (9th)
49ers Defensive Rankings:
Rushing: 54.5 YPG (1st); Yards Per Carry: 2.5 (1st);
Rushing Touchdowns: 0 (T-1st)
Passing: 291.0 YPG (25th); Completion Percentage: 58.8 (12th);
Yards Per Attempt: 7.9 (20th);
Passing Touchdowns: 5 (30th); Interceptions: 3 (T-4th);
Sacks: 6 (T-6th);
Fumbles Forced: 4 (T-2nd); Fumbles Recovered: 2 (T-7th);
3rd Down Percentage: 37.9 (15th); Yards Per Game: 345.5 (T-17th); Scoring: 22.0 (T-12th)
49ers Special Teams Rankings:
Kickoff Return: 43.8 Avg (1st); Kickoff Return Allowed: 23.3 Avg (15th);
Punt Return: 15.2 Avg (5th); Punt Return Allowed: 9.3 Avg (T-17th);
Field Goal Percentage: 100.0 (T-1st); Net Punt Average: 51.4 Yards (2nd)
Giveaway/Takeaway:
Giveaways: 1 (T-2nd); Takeaways: 5 (T-4th); Plus/Minus: +4 (T-3rd)
Most of all, are they the outfit that got out-gained 472 yards to 206 by a Dallas team that was missing Dez Bryant, Terence Newman and Orlando Scandrick and who had Romo, and his top three skill players all get banged up during the game; or the ones who were one play away from winning the game on two separate occasions? Indeed all the 49ers needed was a stop on 4th-and-5 or for for Cowboys kicker Dan Bailey, who hooked a 21-yard attempt in the first quarter, to do so again with a 48-yarder at the gun. Instead, the S.O.B hit one so down the middle that it would've been good in the Arena League.
Bill Parcells was fond of saying "You are what your record says you are," but with all due respect to that miserable bastard, there are games where a loss is a win and and games where a win is a loss. Then there are those wins that count double and losses that crush whole seasons. So with that, here are the winners and losers to take away from the 27-24 overtime loss:
Winners:
StubHub: First and foremost. They must have made a killing with their service charges and hidden fees and whatnot, accommodating all those Cowboys fans. Good lord, I was half expecting to see 10-gallon hats and bolo ties in the press box.
Jim Harbaugh: For one half darn near every play he dialed up was working. They were picking up all of Dallas blitzes, and Smith was finding guys open on out routes and hitches and converting third downs. The game plan showed, definitively, that they were indeed "saving" some things for the Cowboys that they didn't use the week before against Seattle. As we go, I would expect the offense to open up more and more and for Harbaugh to find answers to how people are playing his guys.
Alex Smith: Was he as good as his stats suggest? Well, no. But he made a number of fine throws, including perfect touchdown strikes to Kyle Williams and Delanie Walker and even his improvised rollout bomb to Frank Gore looked to be on the money before Bradie James took an interference penalty to break it up. Also, he gets credit for having to make do without his starting receivers and for not fumbling on all those shots he took in the second half.
Kyle Williams: Yeah, the kid has just one pass thrown his way, but he made a great catch in the corner of the end zone and will likely see more playing time with Braylon Edwards out and Michael Crabtree limping around. I've said it before, he probably runs the best slant route on the team, and with his quickness and run-after-catch ability, Williams is the one guy who can burn blitzes by taking a short hot route a long way. We'll have to see if it comes into play.
Bruce Miller: The first two games couldn't have gone much better for him. The guy in front of him on the depth chart, Moran Norris, has been a tire fire thus far, and now he's injured. Miller will crack the lineup this Sunday.
Ray McDonald: Not a great game, but another sack and one other hit on Romo. Two games in, he's looked every bit the $4 million defensive end. Kudos.
NaVorro Bowman: Not only has he held up well against the run, but he was better in coverage than just about any 49er on Sunday. He broke up two passes and I can't remember any that he gave up. Would've liked to seen him blitz more though.
Carlos Rogers: He was beaten two or three times, but he got his hand (or his head) on quite a few as well. Everyone will remember the overtime play to Jesse Holley, but for three-and-a-half quarters Rogers played outstanding football.
Losers:
49ers fans: You ought to be ashamed of yourselves. Yes, your stadium is an eyesore. Yes, the parking situation is an abomination. Yes, there was potential for crowd violence a la the preseason mess with Oakland. Still, your team isn't that bad and it's downright embarrassing that it turned into a Cowboys home game. The crowd was -- and this is conservative -- at least 55 percent in favor of Dallas. Perhaps it was a gigantic middle finger to ownership, who had gotten the message out in advance of the game that they wanted the stands to be "a sea of red." Maybe it was a way of telling the Yorks "We'll buy your gear and show up to your games when you get a legitimate stadium and some good players."
Or maybe everyone in California is broke and a buck is a buck.
Jim Harbaugh: Save for one nice play-call late in the third quarter where Smith found Walker matched up one-on-one by outside linebacker Anthony Spencer and took advantage, Harbaugh and Greg Roman couldn't draw up anything to bail the offense. Three times Smith rolled out or executed play-fakes where there was an unblocked rusher waiting to meet him, and any plan that calls for DeMarcus Ware to not be accounted for seems pretty stupid to me.
Too often the plays they were trying were too cute, the kind of calls designed to take advantage of over-aggressive, inexperienced front sevens. Dallas was aggressive, but they've got a lot of veterans there who know how to read tells and diagnose plays. I think a couple times the 49ers assumed that when the Cowboys had six or seven snarling guys at the line that at least two or three would drop back in coverage and the line would be able to zone up whoever rushed. Instead, Dallas just sent everyone and that left people who weren't blocked. If the Cowboys guessed correctly on who the hot route was, Smith didn't have time to look for a second option and he was toast.
Of course Harbaugh's biggest blunder was taking the field goal with 11:12 to go to push the score to 24-14 instead of accepting a 1st-and-ten at Dallas' 22-yard-line, but we covered that extensively on Monday.
Alex Smith: How much blame does he deserve for not adjusting the line to pick up some of those blitzes in the second half or for not audibling out of bad plays? It's hard to say because we don't know the extent of his responsibilities. Maybe he did change the protections and guys simply missed their assignments. What we can blame Smith for are two throws that came back-to-back in the third quarter. On the interception he thought Davis was running a button hook. Davis, however, correctly adjusted his route to an out when he saw how much room he had to the sideline. Even if he ran the hook that Smith wanted, Dallas' Alan Ball undercut it and still would've picked it off. Smith's real sin, however, was the play before, when he rolled left and badly overshot a wide open Walker, who would've gained enough yards for a first down.
Also, I think he should've lobbied Harbaugh more, not just to keep the ball
after that penalty on Akers' field goal, but even before that, when Harbaugh elected to kick on 4th-and-1 from the 37. A good quarterback fights these decisions, but it's simply not in Smith's nature to be confrontational or argumentative.
Kendall Hunter: Welcome to life in the NFL, kid. You happened to get drafted by a team where the running back has more influence in the organization than the quarterback does. Don't worry, you'll get a chance to play when Gore gets his inevitable injury in a couple weeks.
Vernon Davis: He was asked to block a bunch against Dallas on pass plays (didn't work) and doubled when he did go on routes. These things will happen without Crabtree and Edwards. Davis is already grumpy with Harbaugh, but the 49ers do have a few games coming up against teams who can't cover tight ends well.
Jonathan Goodwin: Beaten soundly by Jay Ratliff two or three times, leading to sacks on Smith, including one in overtime that torpedoed the 49ers last chance of winning the game. He also had a terrible shotgun snap that Smith did well to turn into a positive play.
Mike Iupati: Whiffed on blocks in the run game and pass game. Continues to be confused by stunts and twists. Worst of all, I don't sense any fire from him at all.
Joe Staley: Beaten for one sack by Ware but a lot of the pressure Dallas had came from the gap between him and Iupati.
Chilo Rachal: Still getting subbed out for Adam Snyder a couple series per game. That should tell you something.
Anthony Davis: The 49ers best lineman on Sunday. Which is like being their handsomest beat reporter.
Moran Norris: Somewhere in the NFL there must be a worse starting fullback, but I can't think of one of the top off my head.
Ahmad Brooks: What a ticky-tack neutral zone call that was, giving Dallas new life and turning what should've been at the worst a 14-0 halftime lead into 14-7. Still, Ahmad, dude, you're looking right at the ball. It's 3rd-and-forever. Get a full foot behind it, just to be safe.
Tarell Brown: Beaten regularly by the likes of Holley and Kevin Ogletree. Shawntae Spencer will claim the starting job any day now.
Tramaine Brock: Nice interception and all, but putting him in the slot against Miles Austin was painful to watch. He's gonna be the odd man out of the lineup.
Donte Whitner: Witten chewed him up all afternoon. Just a hopeless match-up. Bit on a play-fake in overtime (as did Rogers), which was silly because Dallas hasn't been able to run the ball since last October.
Madieu Williams: P-U.
Reggie Smith: How stiff are those hips? I thought the 49ers traded Taylor Mays away.
Does that seem unfair, to have far more losers than winners? Well, I repeat, the yardage was 472 to 206. Should we throw the 49ers a parade? The offensive line is a sieve and the defense looks very vulnerable when people stretch them out and forget about running. I was disappointed in Vic Fangio for not calling more blitzes and trying to confuse Romo a bit. Instead the Niners got dinked-and-dunked to death in fine Greg Manusky fashion. We'll see if he gets any trickier against a rookie QB this Sunday in Cincinnati's Andy Dalton. It won't do to have him be less confused out there than Smith.
************************************************************************
Injury notes:
Harbaugh, in a rare lapse of his usual thousand-yard stare and dismissive non-answer routine, actually revealed that Braylon Edwards "will be out a bit" and that the receiver "underwent a procedure" on his knee. Look for Edwards to be out until the seventh game, home vs. his former club, the Browns. The Niners have their bye before that and the sixth game is on the turf at Detroit, so I think it'll be a stretch to see him play in that one, though a losing streak may change the prognosis. That's what makes this Cincinnati game so important. They simply have to win it, because the schedule gets pretty hairy the three weeks after that.
Harbaugh also said that Michael Crabtree will "most likely" play on Sunday. We saw Crabtree running routes at what looked to be full speed in individual drills, but at his locker he didn't look like someone champing at the bit to go get 'em. "It's only been three days," he said. "How much different could (his foot injury) be in three days?"
Crabtree was just "limited" in practice on Wednesday, per the official report, so we'll see.
My feeling: Crabtree really wanted to play against his hometown Cowboys and was disappointed about not getting the chance. He's probably not nearly as stoked about facing the Bengals. He'll play, but...
Alex Smith apparently sustained a concussion during Sunday's game. Nice enough for them to mention it on Wednesday, on an injury report that was sent in at 4:38 p.m... Smith seemed lucid enough during his press conference and was a full participant in practice, so it must have been a minor one.
Shawntae Spencer told CSN Bay Area's Mindi Bach that he's been practicing in full for two weeks and he's completely healed from his hamstring injury. However, he said that coaches want to see how he fits into the scheme on the practice field before throwing him out there in games. He added that he understands the scheme, but has to convince them of that. The way Brown and Brock have played, I think Spencer will get his chance, and soon.
Dashon Goldson also looked spry during individual drills, and I think he's the starter this week unless he has some kind of set back. The team desperately needs him back because both Madieu Williams and Reggie Smith were liabilities on Sunday. The team missed Goldson a lot more than they missed Spencer or Crabtree or even Edwards.
Moran Norris' injury was revealed to be a fibula problem, and despite him telling Maiocco that he's "fine" the team already declared him out for Sunday. Good lord.
Are you ready for Bruce Miller?
*******************************************************************************
49ers Statistical Rankings, presented without comment.
49ers Offensive Rankings:
Rushing: 79.5 YPG (26th); Yards Per Carry: 2.8 (29th);
Rushing Touchdowns: 2 (T-6th);
Passing: 128.0 YPG (29th); Completion Percentage (T-4th);
Yards Per Attempt: 6.9 (T-21st);
Passing Touchdowns: 2 (T-23rd); Interceptions: 1 (T-5th);
Sacks: 6 (T-22nd);
QB Rating: 95.2 (11th); 3rd Down Percentage: 32.1 (23rd);
Yards Per Game: 207.5 (31st); Scoring: 28.5 (9th)
49ers Defensive Rankings:
Rushing: 54.5 YPG (1st); Yards Per Carry: 2.5 (1st);
Rushing Touchdowns: 0 (T-1st)
Passing: 291.0 YPG (25th); Completion Percentage: 58.8 (12th);
Yards Per Attempt: 7.9 (20th);
Passing Touchdowns: 5 (30th); Interceptions: 3 (T-4th);
Sacks: 6 (T-6th);
Fumbles Forced: 4 (T-2nd); Fumbles Recovered: 2 (T-7th);
3rd Down Percentage: 37.9 (15th); Yards Per Game: 345.5 (T-17th); Scoring: 22.0 (T-12th)
49ers Special Teams Rankings:
Kickoff Return: 43.8 Avg (1st); Kickoff Return Allowed: 23.3 Avg (15th);
Punt Return: 15.2 Avg (5th); Punt Return Allowed: 9.3 Avg (T-17th);
Field Goal Percentage: 100.0 (T-1st); Net Punt Average: 51.4 Yards (2nd)
Giveaway/Takeaway:
Giveaways: 1 (T-2nd); Takeaways: 5 (T-4th); Plus/Minus: +4 (T-3rd)
Monday, September 19, 2011
Harbaugh Channels Ghosts of Singetary, 49ers Lose In Overtime To Cowboys
SAN FRANCISCO -- It's not the most elegant way to begin a game story, but it's the 500-lb. pink gorilla in the room, so why prolong the agony? Jim Harbaugh's decision to take the 55-yard field goal (which David Akers booted so convincingly that it would've been good from 65) instead of accepting the 15-yard "leveraging" penalty on Dallas that would've given the 49ers a 1st-and-10 from the Cowboys 22-yard-line with a 21-14 lead and 11:12 left in the game was A) wrong B) asinine C) indefensible D) short-sighted E) telling and F) overblown.
It was not the reason the 49ers lost to the Cowboys 27-24 in overtime, though it's so convenient and easy to think that it was.
It was wrong because being up 24-14 with 11:12 to go is not as good as being up 24-14 with eight minutes and change to go, which is precisely the situation the 49ers would've been facing had they simply accepted the penalty and ran Frank Gore up the gut three straight times. Even if they don't gain an inch, it's a 39-yard field goal for Akers, a man who can split the uprights with bowel movements longer than 39 yards. It was an unusually hot day by Candlestick standards and the only wind was coming from the press box, so yes, I think Akers could be trusted to deliver there.
It was asinine because the team faced almost the exact same scenario last week, when Akers was roughed on a field goal. Then Harbaugh accepted the penalty, they ran three fruitless plays, they wasted two minutes of our lives and Akers kicked again. The decision worked, they won the game, so why fix something that wasn't broken? Alex Smith has referenced the Albert Einstein in the past about the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results, so how do we define the 49ers, who willfully deviate decisions that worked?
It was indefensible because the only scenario where that decision backfires is if you have a turnover on a running play or a string of holding calls to back them up from field goal range to San Jose. However, that kind of negative thinking doesn't jibe with the mentality of a team that got a 21-14 lead on the Cowboys in the first place. The three touchdown drives didn't materialize out of thin air. Ted Ginn didn't return three kicks to the house. Smith played well, made good decisions and threw the ball accurately to move the sticks. If you trusted him to do it for the first 48:48 of the game, then you should trust him for the final 11:12. That goes for every situation, from not committing holding penalties (they didn't), to Gore not fumbling (he didn't), to center Jonathan Goodwin not having any bad snaps (ditto). The same guys that got you the lead with were in the huddle, and they deserved the rope to hang themselves with.
It was short-sighted because even if they had won the game, Harbaugh's decision would've been a big neon sign Smith, to the offensive players and to the rest of the football watching world that read, "I DO NOT TRUST YOU." It simply does not bode well for future games. Why would the quarterback have confidence in himself if his coach doesn't? Why would the linemen? For that matter, why would the players trust each other or their coach? It's better to lose and show the players you have faith in them, even if you don't, than to win by hedging your bets and being openly petrified.
It was telling because a coach can hype up and praise and defend his players to the media all day long, but they're just words. Actions are more telling and Harbaugh sure made it appear as though he doesn't think he has much to work with. It's very simple, the way people view Harbaugh's decision. The ones who think it was wrong simply think that Smith is a mediocre starting quarterback. The ones who agree with Harbaugh (I'm not naming names but they're easy to find) view Smith along the lines of those Charlie Brown cartoons where he's pitching in little league and getting his clothes knocked off, with every one of his pitches producing line drive -- think Smith is so incompetent that he can't even be trusted to execute three hand-offs without something, anything, going wrong. They view every single positive play in his career as a residue of luck and all the negative ones as indicators of his true wretchedness.
It's worth noting just the fact that all our hypothetical scenarios deal with Smith just handing the ball three times goes to show how little our expectations are. It's simply unimaginable to contemplate Smith being allowed to throw from inside the 20-yard line with a fourth quarter lead. There's that little trust and faith in him, both from inside and outside the organization. The same people who are happy with Harbaugh's decision to take the points are the ones who wouldn't trust him to kneel down in properly at the end of a game without it going wrong.
However, given all of that, the decision was overblown because what lost the 49ers the game was the fact the same two units that led to most of their losses in the Mike Singletary era while Smith and the play-calling took the blame: the offensive line and the secondary.
Whatever adjustments the Cowboys made in the second half, the line was a nightmare. Smith was sacked on six of his 30 drop-backs, a ratio of 20 percent that's unspeakably awful. Gore was limited to 47 yards on 20 carries. On a line with three first-round picks, a high second-round pick and a two-time Pro Bowler at center, it's mind-boggling how they generate so little push, how they continue to get blown off the ball on snaps, and how often they let people through completely unblocked.
Harbaugh did everything he could to buy Smith time for his receivers. He kept six and seven guys in to block, including Vernon Davis on most plays (Davis was decidedly unhappy about it). He called as many running plays he could in the hopes of keeping Dallas pass-rushers honest. It didn't matter. The Cowboys snarling front seven simply assaulted Gore on their way to Smith. Without Michael Crabtree (inactive) or Braylon Edwards (out after two plays with a knee injury) Smith didn't have people who could get open consistently, as the Cowboys did a good job of guessing who the hot routes were going to be and making him go to the second option. By then Smith was on his back.
The only way Gore will have room to run is if defenses start respecting Smith, and the only way they'll start doing that is if he burns them repeatedly on blitzes. Having Crabtree and Edwards healthy would help, but what would help more is to actually pick up the blitzes in the first place and to fire off the ball once in a while on those runs. Mike Iupati in particular had a bad game but Anthony Davis, Chilo Rachal, Jonathan Goodwin and Joe Staley all had afternoons to forget.
Defensively, the pass rush started off strong enough to fracture a couple of Tony Romo's ribs and forced him to throw off his back foot quite a bit in the first half. They also had the fortune of playing against Jon Kitna for most of the third quarter, and Kitna threw some horrific passes, leading to a pair of interceptions; one each by Donte Whitner and Tramaine Brock. As usual, they completely took away the running game, holding Dallas to 45 yards on 20 useless carries. At this point it's a wonder why anyone ever bothers calling a run against the 49ers. They're just doing them a favor.
Eventually Dallas tightened up their protection, spread the 49ers defense out and Romo checked back in and started clicking with his receivers -- mainly Miles Austin (who had three touchdowns) and Jason Witten, who were both playing hurt themselves. Romo repeatedly abused all the backups forced into prominent roles on the 49ers secondary, guys like Tarell Brown, Madieu Williams and Reggie Smith. However, it's not like this secondary played any well last year when they had Dashon Goldson and Shawntae Spencer, so expecting those two to be saviors might be wishful thinking.
Whitner is a useful player in that he's good at stopping the run and can do a decent job against most tight ends, but against the cream of the crop like Witten, he's not gonna come out on top. The best player in the secondary, and someone who looks to be a great free agent signing, is corner Carlos Rogers. The team actually had him in the slot against Witten quite a bit and he won some of those battles and lost some. He actually played quite well in the game and got his hand -- and his helmet -- on some balls, and had the deflection on Brock's interception. Unfortunately, Rogers' worst play came in overtime, when both he and Whitner bit on a play-action fake and froze, allowing Jesse Holley of all people to get behind them for the crushing 77-yard reception and the winning field goal.
It's crazy to think the 49ers were one play from winning this game on two separate occasions. Dallas had to convert a 4th-and-5 late in the game, which they did on a sideline pass to Witten. They also had to have Dan Bailey make a 48-yard field goal at the gun when he had missed a chip shot early in the game. Still, for the second half they completely dominated both lines of scrimmage and outgained the 49ers in the game 472 yards to 206. In many aspects both teams were lucky to even get to overtime, and the Cowboys took advantage of their luck while the 49ers did not.
For his part Smith played quite well, and I'm sure going into the game most fans would've gladly taken two touchdown passes, one interception, no fumbles and a 99.1 QB rating from him. He wasn't the problem. Smith had a Romo-like play in the second quarter when he completely missed the shotgun snap, caught the ball on the bounce while running backward to retrieve it, rolled to the right like Montana against Dallas 30-years ago, and found Gore in the end zone 40 yards downfield. It would've been a touchdown had Gore not been interfered with by a desperate Cowboys defender, and the 49ers scored on the next play from one-yard out all the same.
The next drive Smith had a series of third-down conversions and found Kyle Williams in the left corner on a beautiful 12-yard pass over Mike Jenkins' shoulder to make it 14-0. His one bad decision in the second half, trying to force a pass to Davis early in the third quarter, was intercepted and led to Austin's second touchdown which tied the game at 14, but Smith made his best pass shortly after, after Brock's intercepted Kitna. He found a mismatch with tight end Delanie Walker against Dallas' Anthony Spencer, nominally a pass-rusher and hit him in stride on a looping 29-yard score to make it 21-14. It was the only drive in the second half and overtime that didn't have one negative play, and that was probably because it lasted all of one play.
If Smith is to be criticized for anything, except not making better blocking audibles to counter Dallas' pass rush, it's that he didn't challenge Harbaugh for accepting that field goal. A better quarterback wouldn't have even look his coach's way and simply jogged out onto the field. Smith should've at least pushed for it, demanded it. That he doesn't have the personality to do so is why he never meshed with Singletary and why he can never be an elite player. It's just not in him to be the forceful, dominant personality you need at that position.
For now, that personality remains Harbaugh, for better or worse. He said he'd know more about his team after a game or two, and the same is true of his players knowing more about him. Right now he knows he's got some real problems at offensive line and the secondary and some health issues at receiver. His players know he coaches scared, playing not-to-lose instead of going for the throat, just like the last guy and the guy before him.
They'll have 14 games this season to learn more about each other, and for now, it appears, only 14.
It was not the reason the 49ers lost to the Cowboys 27-24 in overtime, though it's so convenient and easy to think that it was.
It was wrong because being up 24-14 with 11:12 to go is not as good as being up 24-14 with eight minutes and change to go, which is precisely the situation the 49ers would've been facing had they simply accepted the penalty and ran Frank Gore up the gut three straight times. Even if they don't gain an inch, it's a 39-yard field goal for Akers, a man who can split the uprights with bowel movements longer than 39 yards. It was an unusually hot day by Candlestick standards and the only wind was coming from the press box, so yes, I think Akers could be trusted to deliver there.
It was asinine because the team faced almost the exact same scenario last week, when Akers was roughed on a field goal. Then Harbaugh accepted the penalty, they ran three fruitless plays, they wasted two minutes of our lives and Akers kicked again. The decision worked, they won the game, so why fix something that wasn't broken? Alex Smith has referenced the Albert Einstein in the past about the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results, so how do we define the 49ers, who willfully deviate decisions that worked?
It was indefensible because the only scenario where that decision backfires is if you have a turnover on a running play or a string of holding calls to back them up from field goal range to San Jose. However, that kind of negative thinking doesn't jibe with the mentality of a team that got a 21-14 lead on the Cowboys in the first place. The three touchdown drives didn't materialize out of thin air. Ted Ginn didn't return three kicks to the house. Smith played well, made good decisions and threw the ball accurately to move the sticks. If you trusted him to do it for the first 48:48 of the game, then you should trust him for the final 11:12. That goes for every situation, from not committing holding penalties (they didn't), to Gore not fumbling (he didn't), to center Jonathan Goodwin not having any bad snaps (ditto). The same guys that got you the lead with were in the huddle, and they deserved the rope to hang themselves with.
It was short-sighted because even if they had won the game, Harbaugh's decision would've been a big neon sign Smith, to the offensive players and to the rest of the football watching world that read, "I DO NOT TRUST YOU." It simply does not bode well for future games. Why would the quarterback have confidence in himself if his coach doesn't? Why would the linemen? For that matter, why would the players trust each other or their coach? It's better to lose and show the players you have faith in them, even if you don't, than to win by hedging your bets and being openly petrified.
It was telling because a coach can hype up and praise and defend his players to the media all day long, but they're just words. Actions are more telling and Harbaugh sure made it appear as though he doesn't think he has much to work with. It's very simple, the way people view Harbaugh's decision. The ones who think it was wrong simply think that Smith is a mediocre starting quarterback. The ones who agree with Harbaugh (I'm not naming names but they're easy to find) view Smith along the lines of those Charlie Brown cartoons where he's pitching in little league and getting his clothes knocked off, with every one of his pitches producing line drive -- think Smith is so incompetent that he can't even be trusted to execute three hand-offs without something, anything, going wrong. They view every single positive play in his career as a residue of luck and all the negative ones as indicators of his true wretchedness.
It's worth noting just the fact that all our hypothetical scenarios deal with Smith just handing the ball three times goes to show how little our expectations are. It's simply unimaginable to contemplate Smith being allowed to throw from inside the 20-yard line with a fourth quarter lead. There's that little trust and faith in him, both from inside and outside the organization. The same people who are happy with Harbaugh's decision to take the points are the ones who wouldn't trust him to kneel down in properly at the end of a game without it going wrong.
However, given all of that, the decision was overblown because what lost the 49ers the game was the fact the same two units that led to most of their losses in the Mike Singletary era while Smith and the play-calling took the blame: the offensive line and the secondary.
Whatever adjustments the Cowboys made in the second half, the line was a nightmare. Smith was sacked on six of his 30 drop-backs, a ratio of 20 percent that's unspeakably awful. Gore was limited to 47 yards on 20 carries. On a line with three first-round picks, a high second-round pick and a two-time Pro Bowler at center, it's mind-boggling how they generate so little push, how they continue to get blown off the ball on snaps, and how often they let people through completely unblocked.
Harbaugh did everything he could to buy Smith time for his receivers. He kept six and seven guys in to block, including Vernon Davis on most plays (Davis was decidedly unhappy about it). He called as many running plays he could in the hopes of keeping Dallas pass-rushers honest. It didn't matter. The Cowboys snarling front seven simply assaulted Gore on their way to Smith. Without Michael Crabtree (inactive) or Braylon Edwards (out after two plays with a knee injury) Smith didn't have people who could get open consistently, as the Cowboys did a good job of guessing who the hot routes were going to be and making him go to the second option. By then Smith was on his back.
The only way Gore will have room to run is if defenses start respecting Smith, and the only way they'll start doing that is if he burns them repeatedly on blitzes. Having Crabtree and Edwards healthy would help, but what would help more is to actually pick up the blitzes in the first place and to fire off the ball once in a while on those runs. Mike Iupati in particular had a bad game but Anthony Davis, Chilo Rachal, Jonathan Goodwin and Joe Staley all had afternoons to forget.
Defensively, the pass rush started off strong enough to fracture a couple of Tony Romo's ribs and forced him to throw off his back foot quite a bit in the first half. They also had the fortune of playing against Jon Kitna for most of the third quarter, and Kitna threw some horrific passes, leading to a pair of interceptions; one each by Donte Whitner and Tramaine Brock. As usual, they completely took away the running game, holding Dallas to 45 yards on 20 useless carries. At this point it's a wonder why anyone ever bothers calling a run against the 49ers. They're just doing them a favor.
Eventually Dallas tightened up their protection, spread the 49ers defense out and Romo checked back in and started clicking with his receivers -- mainly Miles Austin (who had three touchdowns) and Jason Witten, who were both playing hurt themselves. Romo repeatedly abused all the backups forced into prominent roles on the 49ers secondary, guys like Tarell Brown, Madieu Williams and Reggie Smith. However, it's not like this secondary played any well last year when they had Dashon Goldson and Shawntae Spencer, so expecting those two to be saviors might be wishful thinking.
Whitner is a useful player in that he's good at stopping the run and can do a decent job against most tight ends, but against the cream of the crop like Witten, he's not gonna come out on top. The best player in the secondary, and someone who looks to be a great free agent signing, is corner Carlos Rogers. The team actually had him in the slot against Witten quite a bit and he won some of those battles and lost some. He actually played quite well in the game and got his hand -- and his helmet -- on some balls, and had the deflection on Brock's interception. Unfortunately, Rogers' worst play came in overtime, when both he and Whitner bit on a play-action fake and froze, allowing Jesse Holley of all people to get behind them for the crushing 77-yard reception and the winning field goal.
It's crazy to think the 49ers were one play from winning this game on two separate occasions. Dallas had to convert a 4th-and-5 late in the game, which they did on a sideline pass to Witten. They also had to have Dan Bailey make a 48-yard field goal at the gun when he had missed a chip shot early in the game. Still, for the second half they completely dominated both lines of scrimmage and outgained the 49ers in the game 472 yards to 206. In many aspects both teams were lucky to even get to overtime, and the Cowboys took advantage of their luck while the 49ers did not.
For his part Smith played quite well, and I'm sure going into the game most fans would've gladly taken two touchdown passes, one interception, no fumbles and a 99.1 QB rating from him. He wasn't the problem. Smith had a Romo-like play in the second quarter when he completely missed the shotgun snap, caught the ball on the bounce while running backward to retrieve it, rolled to the right like Montana against Dallas 30-years ago, and found Gore in the end zone 40 yards downfield. It would've been a touchdown had Gore not been interfered with by a desperate Cowboys defender, and the 49ers scored on the next play from one-yard out all the same.
The next drive Smith had a series of third-down conversions and found Kyle Williams in the left corner on a beautiful 12-yard pass over Mike Jenkins' shoulder to make it 14-0. His one bad decision in the second half, trying to force a pass to Davis early in the third quarter, was intercepted and led to Austin's second touchdown which tied the game at 14, but Smith made his best pass shortly after, after Brock's intercepted Kitna. He found a mismatch with tight end Delanie Walker against Dallas' Anthony Spencer, nominally a pass-rusher and hit him in stride on a looping 29-yard score to make it 21-14. It was the only drive in the second half and overtime that didn't have one negative play, and that was probably because it lasted all of one play.
If Smith is to be criticized for anything, except not making better blocking audibles to counter Dallas' pass rush, it's that he didn't challenge Harbaugh for accepting that field goal. A better quarterback wouldn't have even look his coach's way and simply jogged out onto the field. Smith should've at least pushed for it, demanded it. That he doesn't have the personality to do so is why he never meshed with Singletary and why he can never be an elite player. It's just not in him to be the forceful, dominant personality you need at that position.
For now, that personality remains Harbaugh, for better or worse. He said he'd know more about his team after a game or two, and the same is true of his players knowing more about him. Right now he knows he's got some real problems at offensive line and the secondary and some health issues at receiver. His players know he coaches scared, playing not-to-lose instead of going for the throat, just like the last guy and the guy before him.
They'll have 14 games this season to learn more about each other, and for now, it appears, only 14.
Friday, September 16, 2011
49ers-Cowboys Preview, Week 2 Picks
If you need any affirmation of where our plucky San Francisco 49ers stand in the NFL's pecking order, consider the fact that last Sunday night, on the league-owned hour long highlight extravaganza, the visual evidence of their 33-17 triumph over the Seattle Seahawks consisted of a 15 second clip that picked up the action in the fourth quarter with the home side up 19-10. We got the 55-yard touchdown pass from Tarvaris Jackson to Doug Baldwin, where the former Stanford receiver wrong-footed nickel safety Reggie Smith, and then the ensuing 102-yard kick return by Ted Ginn which pushed the margin to nine once more.
Alex Smith's bootleg touchdown in the first half where he dove over two defenders? Not worthy. A montage of first half sacks the defensive line delivered to Jackson? Not relevant. Ginn's punt return touchdown to punctuate the game? Not necessary.
The next day, when asked how he celebrated his first NFL win as the head whistle, Jim Harbaugh, a fellow who gives off the strong impression that he wouldn't know how to celebrate anything if his life depended on it, remarked that he went home and watched TV.
"Just went home and watched the Cowboys game," he said. "Kind of flipped through the channels, the NFL network, and highlight express, and the ESPN blitz. Never caught one highlight of the 49ers on any of those, so I just watched the Cowboys game."
Did that strike you as peculiar, coach?
"No, we know it. It just kind of documents what you know. What the perception is of our team around the league and around the country. Some people can say that’s not fair, it isn’t right, but do something about it. And that’s our mindset. That’s our approach."
I suppose "Win one for the TV producer's attention" doesn't quite have the same ring to it as "Win one for the gipper," but athletes have been inspired by less.
For the record, the only game that got as such short shrift on the highlight shows as 49ers-Seahawks was Jaguars-Titans. What do these two have in common, kids? Divisional rivals in divisions the country doesn't care about, with stopgap quarterbacks squaring off. Should Alex Smith vs. Tarvaris Jackson have inspired that much interest than Luke McCown vs. Matt Hasselbeck? Until further notice, the answer is no.
However, team interest doesn't always align perfectly with records and expectations. The Lakers still got plenty of national games when they were reduced to Kobe Bryant and 11 guys named "Smush" and so did Michael Vick's Falcons teams even though he never figured out what a wide receiver was until he met Andy Reid at Philadelphia. People like who they like and the folks at ESPN decided long ago it's easier to conjure up "news" about those they deem interesting rather than waste precious resources reporting the news as it happens about any Tom, Dick or Harry. Besides, they have all those big money partnerships to protect, so why upset people by sifting through their dirty laundry?
So forget the TV stuff and let's get to the heart of what determines who's top dog in the NFL: The almighty point spread.
The 1-0 49ers, at the friendly confines of Candlestick Park, are field goal dogs to an 0-1 team that is almost identical on paper to the one that finished 6-10 last season. "Poppycock," you say. "That stat is biased. Tony Romo was hurt last season and the Cowboys are entirely different without him."
Well, who am I to argue that? In fact, not only was Dallas markedly different sans Romo, but they were better. They went 1-5 with their marque idol under center and 5-5 with Jon "Jon Kitna" Kitna, a backup so milquetoast that my nickname for him is his name. Romo certainly has the pretty numbers and the heart-thumping magnetism, with charisma that's practically off the scale, but for whatever reason he hasn't won much of late. Combine the opening weekend capitulation at the Jets and 2009's season-ending playoff massacre at the hands of Brett Favre and the Vikings and Romo is a sweet 1-7 in his last eight starts of note.
That's the guy, the one who throws ill-timed picks and fumbles when it's the least convenient time to do so, who's favored by a field goal over your Niners.
The hell of it is, no one is the least bit surprised. The point is not to put down the 49ers specifically, but rather that anybody in the NFC BEast would be favored against anybody from the West, at least if you listen to corner Carlos Rogers, who spent the first six seasons of his career at Washington.
"I was telling the guys, when I played the NFC East, that's the toughest (division)," said Rogers. "You look at the NFC West and you always looked at those guys as soft. You looked at those games as games you should win. I know that's (the Cowboys') mindset coming in here."
Indeed, you'd be hard-pressed to find anybody on the 49ers schedule who don't view them as a "W" with minimal effort, and like Harbaugh said, it's up to them to change that perception.
To do that, they'll have to join the 21st century and start flinging the rock. Their linemen know it, their receivers know it and even their quarterback, who makes a point of defending the "balanced" offensive philosophy at all times like a dutiful soldier, knows it.
"In the past game we were only throwing for a 124 yards," Smith said. "Obviously I’d like to build upon that. So we were efficient as far as completion percentage, but I’d really like to get a little more production."
Yes, you read that correctly. Alex Smith said he'd like to get little more production. He says it in a way like it's a favor he has to ask of his coaches, like a treat he's earned for cleaning his room and eating all his veggies. It doesn't exactly sound like a fellow who's gonna challenge Harbaugh the next time he hears a play-call for a draw to Frank Gore on 3rd-and-8.
That's been the Catch-22 with Smith throughout his career. He hasn't been given the same opportunities from a play-calling standpoint that other quarterbacks are regularly afforded, such as regularly getting to pass on 1st-and-10 or 3rd-and-2, and consequently the 49ers have never scored anywhere close to consistently enough with him under center to merit his coaches treating him the way they Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady gets treated. It's like a chicken and egg argument except the chicken is diseased and the egg is rotten.
New 49ers receiver Braylon Edwards insisted the other day that the team could win a shootout type of game, saying "I know we have what it takes to be in one of them. We have the offensive line, we have the receivers, the running back and the play-calling ability from the coaches."
Notice what critical ingredient he left out of the equation.
The team got away with having an extend preseason last week against Seattle, showing essentially nothing against the Seahawks and doing the bare minimum schematically on offense. If using a sixth offensive lineman is the creative zenith of your game plan, you either A) think absolutely nothing of your opponent B) think even less than that about your quarterback C) are scared to death your offensive line will get innocent spectators hurt, never mind the QB or D) all of the above.
Somewhere, deep inside his 14 layers of black sweaters, Harbaugh knew he wasn't being truthful by defending those runs up the gut by Gore as aggressive, attacking plays. I think he has a pretty good idea he'll have to pass the ball on Sunday and hope for the best, the same as he did with Tavita Pritchard at Stanford.
It'll be up to Smith to prove everyone wrong, and even if he does all the credit will go to his coach, or the blame to Romo, or it will be dismissed as a fluke. Reputations are hard to shake in this league and perception is everything, as a former 49ers quarterback of note is fond of saying.
What we do know is if Smith is ever gonna have a chance to get the home crowd on his side, Sunday's the day. The Cowboys will be without Terence Newman, whose groin is good enough to play on, but the team brass has decided the 49ers can be beaten without his services. They'll miss nickel corner Orlando Scandrick as well, while other starter Mike Jenkins will be limited by a wonky shoulder. Anthony Spencer, their second best pass rusher, also has a bad shoulder. In theory, as long as the 49ers double-team DeMarcus Ware on every play, they should tear these guys up. In theory, Smith was supposed to be a franchise savior as a number one pick. Things don't always work out as planned.
On the other side of the ball, the 49ers defense will get a second straight game against a young, inexperienced offensive line, and safety Donte Whitner will find that Jason Witten is a rich man's version of Zach Miller, with the difference between the two tight ends having more to do with their respective quarterbacks than anything else. I would figure Witten will see some bracket coverage, with Patrick Willis or NaVorro Bowman chipping in underneath. Rogers will draw a lot of one-on-one with Miles Austin, especially in the slot, and if Dez Bryant plays -- he's missed practice all week with a thigh contusion -- he's going to be impaired.
The Cowboys are in town, bruised and battered. They're expecting to win because they're them and the Niners are the Niners. Either way the highlight clip this time out will be a lot longer than 15 seconds and Michael Irvin and Deion Sanders will be doing plenty of chirping. We'll have to see if Harbaugh will be in the mood to watch it.
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Michael Crabtree looked more active in Thursday's individual drills on Thursday than he did on Wednesday, and was running short routes at 80 percent speed I'd say. He was still listed as "limited" in the official practice report, which is usually code for "did not participate in team drills."
Crabtree will be dying to play against his hometown Cowboys so he'll probably force the issue to at least be in the lineup at the beginning, but if he has any kind of setback in the game, I expect this time for the team to have second-year man Kyle Williams dressed and available. And really, with all the smoke everyone's blowing up Ted Ginn's rear end about how much he's improved as a receiver, you'd think they could play him a few snaps from scrimmage.
Dashon Goldson was mostly a spectator from what I saw and he too was listed as limited in the injury report. My guess is he'll be out for the second straight game and the team will once again depend on the combination of Madieu Williams and Reggie Smith. Hopefully Smith shook off some rust last week and will be more ready to contribute, but I have some bad vibes about him against Dallas' receiving corps. He's shown in the past to be susceptible to play-action and he's not the soundest tackler back there either.
Whether Goldson's absence is costly or not depends on if he'll be the 2009 Goldson when he returns or last year's version. If 2010 Dashon is the real one, then that guy can spend all year on the inactive list as far as I'm concerned. 2009 Goldson on the other hand, I'm quite fond of. The Cowboys have a guy like that too in Mike Jenkins. Great in '09, a disaster last year. Try figuring this game out.
Shawntae Spencer, meanwhile, has been a full participant in practice, but he's still behind both Tarell Brown and Tramaine Brock and doesn't figure to see the field from scrimmage. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio explained that Spencer, who missed practically all of training camp, is still not in football shape yet and can only be used in emergency situations. He may challenge for his old spot in the coming weeks.
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Carlos Rogers offered an interesting scouting report on Tony Romo based on his six head-to-head encounters with him:
"He's a quarterback that if you give him time, let him sit back and don't put pressure on him, he can be a Hall-of-Fame quarterback. If you put pressure on him
and you give him different looks, you've got a chance. And that's one of the main things we always knew. You've got to show him different looks. We always knew his outlet, when he'd get in trouble, he's going to (tight end Jason) Witten. So from my experience that's what you've got to do against him. Show him different looks and mix up your coverages. Send pressure at him because he can sit back there and pick you apart."
What about his scrambling, does that worry you?
"You can't look at Romo and think 'OK, I'm going to give him three or four seconds and the ball should be out.' He can do that little pump fake, make guys jump, scramble and throw. He's not a big runner, but if he's got to, he will. He can extend plays."
Is his greatest asset, his improvisational skill, also his biggest weakness?
"Our thing we always said about him was that he would give us two chances. That was one thing that we always said every year. Romo will give you two chances. The games that we won, when he gave us those chances, we took advantage of them. Some games we didn't take advantage, and we didn't get to him in the backfield, he just picked us apart."
Have I mentioned that I love Carlos Rogers? He's definitely our early favorite for the Niver award.
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Other thoughts/picks for Week 2:
Cleveland at Indianapolis (+3): It all depends on who gets that 10 point lead. The Colts have a smallish front line that the Browns should be able to run on, but those two great edge rushers in Dwight Freeney and Rasheen Mathis to protect any leads they'd get. A shaky pick for the home team. Colts 20, Browns 13.
Kansas City at Detroit (-9): I'm more of a believer in Detroit than I was last week, but nine points is an awful lot. Jamaal Charles should be able to run in that dome enough to keep them in the game. Lions 27, Chiefs 23.
Oakland at Buffalo (-4): The Bills with Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams should be able to stop the Raiders running game cold and Silver & Black get no favors from Mr. Schedulemaker, having to fly all the way to Buffalo for an early 10 a.m. game after having had a late Monday night start the week before. Bills 27, Raiders 13. **FOUR POINT SPECIAL**
Baltimore at Tennessee (+7): Seven point underdogs at home seems like a lot of points to lay, but I can't think of a single argument against Baltimore except they'll be too full of themselves after trouncing Pittsburgh. Ravens 23, Titans 10. **TWO POINT SPECIAL**
Tampa Bay at Minnesota (-3): The biggest game of the morning slate. The loser is in a world of hurt against a deep NFC field with so many Wild Card candidates. I gotta go the team with the best player, which is Adrian Peterson, so I'm taking the Vikes at home with no confidence whatsoever. Vikings 24, Buccaneers 20.
Chicago at New Orleans (-7): Many members of the Bears team will travel with Brian Urlacher to his mother's funeral, which is highly unusual. It speaks to how deeply he's entrenched as the talisman of that organization, more so than anyone since Walter Payton. It also signals the strong bond he has with his teammates, who could hardly function in practice without his presence. Gotta go with the upset pick here against the team I picked to win the Super Bowl, based purely on emotion. I think the Bears will absolutely play their guts out for their middle linebacker, as sappy as that sounds. Bears 24, Saints 23.
Jacksonville at NY Jets (-9): Nine points? Really? What on Earth did the Jets show on Sunday nine to prove they can beat anyone by nine? Rex Ryan's guys will typically sleepwalk through the first half and the Jaguars will find a way to keep this annoyingly close. Jets 19, Jaguars 16.
Seattle at Pittsburgh (-15): Not to go all Simmons on you, but this is an absolutely ridiculous line. I was off by 8 points when I guessed what it would be in the morning. I know the Steelers defense will be angry, but they're not gonna get younger overnight. Besides, that referee is gonna give Seattle a couple of makeup calls methinks. Steelers 23, Seahawks 16.
Arizona at Washington (-4): It's not the venue that makes this a rough game for the Cardinals but rather that they get the 'Skins in the first half of the year, when they're always feisty, than in December, when they're in vacation mode. Redskins 27, Cardinals 17.
Green Bay at Carolina (+11): Cam Newton passed for 422 yards last week and is making his home debut. You think that would be enough for me to happily take the points. Like a fool, I'm gonna lay them, and I probably would if the line was 14. Packers 40, Panthers 13. **FIVE POINT SPECIAL**
Dallas at San Francisco (+3): No, I don't think Alex Smith will stink it up, but I'm not ready to declare the 49ers a top-10 defense yet either. Either way, I'm curious to see what Harbaugh and his coaches are all about, at last. Cowboys 27, 49ers 20.
Cincinnati at Denver (-4): Andy Dalton is the only compelling reason to watch this game. Everyone likes the Bengals in this one because they can kinda sorta run and pass while the Broncos can't run a lick. I don't know. It seems too easy. Denver 31, Cincinnati 20.
Houston at Miami (+3): Still don't think Arian Foster will be ready to play and these are the kind of games the Texans always blow. If Miami can't pull this out, I'm done with 'em for the year. Miami 23, Houston 20.
San Diego at New England (-7): What the heck, a second upset pick. The Pats are overdue to lose a home game in the regular season and call me crazy, I'll take the team with the better defense. Who on New England can cover Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson or Malcolm Floyd? San Diego 30, New England 27.
Philadelphia at Atlanta (+3): First off, I'll take Vick and the Eagles in virtually any game on turf, that's a given. But when you factor in the glaring difference between the two secondaries and the fact that it will be akin to a home game for Philly because of their quarterback, how can I not take them? Also, I have to say for the record, and this is coming from an Eagles guy, that I find the whole racial dynamic of this game, where a large segment of the crowd will be rooting against their own team, very disappointing and a bit creepy. It's 2011 and we should be beyond this stuff.
That Martin Luther King Jr. message about judging a man not by the color of his skin but the content of his character cuts both ways. Vick was a good player for the Falcons, but a highly overrated one. What did he ever win for them? Shouldn't their fans revile him, if not for his crimes, than at least for being dumb enough to piss away his career there instead of worshiping him? Vick even admitted he wasn't a professional as a Falcon and didn't work nearly hard enough, yet he's still loved down there. I just don't get it. Eagles 37, Falcons 24. **THREE POINT SPECIAL**
St. Louis at NY Giants (-6): You get the feeling this game will either be a real dog or wildly entertaining, with nothing in between. The Rams are beat up on offense, while the Giants defense is decimated. If the Rams drop it, they can be staring a 1-6 start in the face. A third upset pick here, because Steve Spagnuolo knows the Giants personnel better than the other way around. Rams 20, Giants 17.
Week 1 Record: 11-5
Vs. Spread: 8-7-1
+/- Points (All games count as one unless otherwise specified): -5
Alex Smith's bootleg touchdown in the first half where he dove over two defenders? Not worthy. A montage of first half sacks the defensive line delivered to Jackson? Not relevant. Ginn's punt return touchdown to punctuate the game? Not necessary.
The next day, when asked how he celebrated his first NFL win as the head whistle, Jim Harbaugh, a fellow who gives off the strong impression that he wouldn't know how to celebrate anything if his life depended on it, remarked that he went home and watched TV.
"Just went home and watched the Cowboys game," he said. "Kind of flipped through the channels, the NFL network, and highlight express, and the ESPN blitz. Never caught one highlight of the 49ers on any of those, so I just watched the Cowboys game."
Did that strike you as peculiar, coach?
"No, we know it. It just kind of documents what you know. What the perception is of our team around the league and around the country. Some people can say that’s not fair, it isn’t right, but do something about it. And that’s our mindset. That’s our approach."
I suppose "Win one for the TV producer's attention" doesn't quite have the same ring to it as "Win one for the gipper," but athletes have been inspired by less.
For the record, the only game that got as such short shrift on the highlight shows as 49ers-Seahawks was Jaguars-Titans. What do these two have in common, kids? Divisional rivals in divisions the country doesn't care about, with stopgap quarterbacks squaring off. Should Alex Smith vs. Tarvaris Jackson have inspired that much interest than Luke McCown vs. Matt Hasselbeck? Until further notice, the answer is no.
However, team interest doesn't always align perfectly with records and expectations. The Lakers still got plenty of national games when they were reduced to Kobe Bryant and 11 guys named "Smush" and so did Michael Vick's Falcons teams even though he never figured out what a wide receiver was until he met Andy Reid at Philadelphia. People like who they like and the folks at ESPN decided long ago it's easier to conjure up "news" about those they deem interesting rather than waste precious resources reporting the news as it happens about any Tom, Dick or Harry. Besides, they have all those big money partnerships to protect, so why upset people by sifting through their dirty laundry?
So forget the TV stuff and let's get to the heart of what determines who's top dog in the NFL: The almighty point spread.
The 1-0 49ers, at the friendly confines of Candlestick Park, are field goal dogs to an 0-1 team that is almost identical on paper to the one that finished 6-10 last season. "Poppycock," you say. "That stat is biased. Tony Romo was hurt last season and the Cowboys are entirely different without him."
Well, who am I to argue that? In fact, not only was Dallas markedly different sans Romo, but they were better. They went 1-5 with their marque idol under center and 5-5 with Jon "Jon Kitna" Kitna, a backup so milquetoast that my nickname for him is his name. Romo certainly has the pretty numbers and the heart-thumping magnetism, with charisma that's practically off the scale, but for whatever reason he hasn't won much of late. Combine the opening weekend capitulation at the Jets and 2009's season-ending playoff massacre at the hands of Brett Favre and the Vikings and Romo is a sweet 1-7 in his last eight starts of note.
That's the guy, the one who throws ill-timed picks and fumbles when it's the least convenient time to do so, who's favored by a field goal over your Niners.
The hell of it is, no one is the least bit surprised. The point is not to put down the 49ers specifically, but rather that anybody in the NFC BEast would be favored against anybody from the West, at least if you listen to corner Carlos Rogers, who spent the first six seasons of his career at Washington.
"I was telling the guys, when I played the NFC East, that's the toughest (division)," said Rogers. "You look at the NFC West and you always looked at those guys as soft. You looked at those games as games you should win. I know that's (the Cowboys') mindset coming in here."
Indeed, you'd be hard-pressed to find anybody on the 49ers schedule who don't view them as a "W" with minimal effort, and like Harbaugh said, it's up to them to change that perception.
To do that, they'll have to join the 21st century and start flinging the rock. Their linemen know it, their receivers know it and even their quarterback, who makes a point of defending the "balanced" offensive philosophy at all times like a dutiful soldier, knows it.
"In the past game we were only throwing for a 124 yards," Smith said. "Obviously I’d like to build upon that. So we were efficient as far as completion percentage, but I’d really like to get a little more production."
Yes, you read that correctly. Alex Smith said he'd like to get little more production. He says it in a way like it's a favor he has to ask of his coaches, like a treat he's earned for cleaning his room and eating all his veggies. It doesn't exactly sound like a fellow who's gonna challenge Harbaugh the next time he hears a play-call for a draw to Frank Gore on 3rd-and-8.
That's been the Catch-22 with Smith throughout his career. He hasn't been given the same opportunities from a play-calling standpoint that other quarterbacks are regularly afforded, such as regularly getting to pass on 1st-and-10 or 3rd-and-2, and consequently the 49ers have never scored anywhere close to consistently enough with him under center to merit his coaches treating him the way they Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady gets treated. It's like a chicken and egg argument except the chicken is diseased and the egg is rotten.
New 49ers receiver Braylon Edwards insisted the other day that the team could win a shootout type of game, saying "I know we have what it takes to be in one of them. We have the offensive line, we have the receivers, the running back and the play-calling ability from the coaches."
Notice what critical ingredient he left out of the equation.
The team got away with having an extend preseason last week against Seattle, showing essentially nothing against the Seahawks and doing the bare minimum schematically on offense. If using a sixth offensive lineman is the creative zenith of your game plan, you either A) think absolutely nothing of your opponent B) think even less than that about your quarterback C) are scared to death your offensive line will get innocent spectators hurt, never mind the QB or D) all of the above.
Somewhere, deep inside his 14 layers of black sweaters, Harbaugh knew he wasn't being truthful by defending those runs up the gut by Gore as aggressive, attacking plays. I think he has a pretty good idea he'll have to pass the ball on Sunday and hope for the best, the same as he did with Tavita Pritchard at Stanford.
It'll be up to Smith to prove everyone wrong, and even if he does all the credit will go to his coach, or the blame to Romo, or it will be dismissed as a fluke. Reputations are hard to shake in this league and perception is everything, as a former 49ers quarterback of note is fond of saying.
What we do know is if Smith is ever gonna have a chance to get the home crowd on his side, Sunday's the day. The Cowboys will be without Terence Newman, whose groin is good enough to play on, but the team brass has decided the 49ers can be beaten without his services. They'll miss nickel corner Orlando Scandrick as well, while other starter Mike Jenkins will be limited by a wonky shoulder. Anthony Spencer, their second best pass rusher, also has a bad shoulder. In theory, as long as the 49ers double-team DeMarcus Ware on every play, they should tear these guys up. In theory, Smith was supposed to be a franchise savior as a number one pick. Things don't always work out as planned.
On the other side of the ball, the 49ers defense will get a second straight game against a young, inexperienced offensive line, and safety Donte Whitner will find that Jason Witten is a rich man's version of Zach Miller, with the difference between the two tight ends having more to do with their respective quarterbacks than anything else. I would figure Witten will see some bracket coverage, with Patrick Willis or NaVorro Bowman chipping in underneath. Rogers will draw a lot of one-on-one with Miles Austin, especially in the slot, and if Dez Bryant plays -- he's missed practice all week with a thigh contusion -- he's going to be impaired.
The Cowboys are in town, bruised and battered. They're expecting to win because they're them and the Niners are the Niners. Either way the highlight clip this time out will be a lot longer than 15 seconds and Michael Irvin and Deion Sanders will be doing plenty of chirping. We'll have to see if Harbaugh will be in the mood to watch it.
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Michael Crabtree looked more active in Thursday's individual drills on Thursday than he did on Wednesday, and was running short routes at 80 percent speed I'd say. He was still listed as "limited" in the official practice report, which is usually code for "did not participate in team drills."
Crabtree will be dying to play against his hometown Cowboys so he'll probably force the issue to at least be in the lineup at the beginning, but if he has any kind of setback in the game, I expect this time for the team to have second-year man Kyle Williams dressed and available. And really, with all the smoke everyone's blowing up Ted Ginn's rear end about how much he's improved as a receiver, you'd think they could play him a few snaps from scrimmage.
Dashon Goldson was mostly a spectator from what I saw and he too was listed as limited in the injury report. My guess is he'll be out for the second straight game and the team will once again depend on the combination of Madieu Williams and Reggie Smith. Hopefully Smith shook off some rust last week and will be more ready to contribute, but I have some bad vibes about him against Dallas' receiving corps. He's shown in the past to be susceptible to play-action and he's not the soundest tackler back there either.
Whether Goldson's absence is costly or not depends on if he'll be the 2009 Goldson when he returns or last year's version. If 2010 Dashon is the real one, then that guy can spend all year on the inactive list as far as I'm concerned. 2009 Goldson on the other hand, I'm quite fond of. The Cowboys have a guy like that too in Mike Jenkins. Great in '09, a disaster last year. Try figuring this game out.
Shawntae Spencer, meanwhile, has been a full participant in practice, but he's still behind both Tarell Brown and Tramaine Brock and doesn't figure to see the field from scrimmage. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio explained that Spencer, who missed practically all of training camp, is still not in football shape yet and can only be used in emergency situations. He may challenge for his old spot in the coming weeks.
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Carlos Rogers offered an interesting scouting report on Tony Romo based on his six head-to-head encounters with him:
"He's a quarterback that if you give him time, let him sit back and don't put pressure on him, he can be a Hall-of-Fame quarterback. If you put pressure on him
and you give him different looks, you've got a chance. And that's one of the main things we always knew. You've got to show him different looks. We always knew his outlet, when he'd get in trouble, he's going to (tight end Jason) Witten. So from my experience that's what you've got to do against him. Show him different looks and mix up your coverages. Send pressure at him because he can sit back there and pick you apart."
What about his scrambling, does that worry you?
"You can't look at Romo and think 'OK, I'm going to give him three or four seconds and the ball should be out.' He can do that little pump fake, make guys jump, scramble and throw. He's not a big runner, but if he's got to, he will. He can extend plays."
Is his greatest asset, his improvisational skill, also his biggest weakness?
"Our thing we always said about him was that he would give us two chances. That was one thing that we always said every year. Romo will give you two chances. The games that we won, when he gave us those chances, we took advantage of them. Some games we didn't take advantage, and we didn't get to him in the backfield, he just picked us apart."
Have I mentioned that I love Carlos Rogers? He's definitely our early favorite for the Niver award.
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Other thoughts/picks for Week 2:
Cleveland at Indianapolis (+3): It all depends on who gets that 10 point lead. The Colts have a smallish front line that the Browns should be able to run on, but those two great edge rushers in Dwight Freeney and Rasheen Mathis to protect any leads they'd get. A shaky pick for the home team. Colts 20, Browns 13.
Kansas City at Detroit (-9): I'm more of a believer in Detroit than I was last week, but nine points is an awful lot. Jamaal Charles should be able to run in that dome enough to keep them in the game. Lions 27, Chiefs 23.
Oakland at Buffalo (-4): The Bills with Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams should be able to stop the Raiders running game cold and Silver & Black get no favors from Mr. Schedulemaker, having to fly all the way to Buffalo for an early 10 a.m. game after having had a late Monday night start the week before. Bills 27, Raiders 13. **FOUR POINT SPECIAL**
Baltimore at Tennessee (+7): Seven point underdogs at home seems like a lot of points to lay, but I can't think of a single argument against Baltimore except they'll be too full of themselves after trouncing Pittsburgh. Ravens 23, Titans 10. **TWO POINT SPECIAL**
Tampa Bay at Minnesota (-3): The biggest game of the morning slate. The loser is in a world of hurt against a deep NFC field with so many Wild Card candidates. I gotta go the team with the best player, which is Adrian Peterson, so I'm taking the Vikes at home with no confidence whatsoever. Vikings 24, Buccaneers 20.
Chicago at New Orleans (-7): Many members of the Bears team will travel with Brian Urlacher to his mother's funeral, which is highly unusual. It speaks to how deeply he's entrenched as the talisman of that organization, more so than anyone since Walter Payton. It also signals the strong bond he has with his teammates, who could hardly function in practice without his presence. Gotta go with the upset pick here against the team I picked to win the Super Bowl, based purely on emotion. I think the Bears will absolutely play their guts out for their middle linebacker, as sappy as that sounds. Bears 24, Saints 23.
Jacksonville at NY Jets (-9): Nine points? Really? What on Earth did the Jets show on Sunday nine to prove they can beat anyone by nine? Rex Ryan's guys will typically sleepwalk through the first half and the Jaguars will find a way to keep this annoyingly close. Jets 19, Jaguars 16.
Seattle at Pittsburgh (-15): Not to go all Simmons on you, but this is an absolutely ridiculous line. I was off by 8 points when I guessed what it would be in the morning. I know the Steelers defense will be angry, but they're not gonna get younger overnight. Besides, that referee is gonna give Seattle a couple of makeup calls methinks. Steelers 23, Seahawks 16.
Arizona at Washington (-4): It's not the venue that makes this a rough game for the Cardinals but rather that they get the 'Skins in the first half of the year, when they're always feisty, than in December, when they're in vacation mode. Redskins 27, Cardinals 17.
Green Bay at Carolina (+11): Cam Newton passed for 422 yards last week and is making his home debut. You think that would be enough for me to happily take the points. Like a fool, I'm gonna lay them, and I probably would if the line was 14. Packers 40, Panthers 13. **FIVE POINT SPECIAL**
Dallas at San Francisco (+3): No, I don't think Alex Smith will stink it up, but I'm not ready to declare the 49ers a top-10 defense yet either. Either way, I'm curious to see what Harbaugh and his coaches are all about, at last. Cowboys 27, 49ers 20.
Cincinnati at Denver (-4): Andy Dalton is the only compelling reason to watch this game. Everyone likes the Bengals in this one because they can kinda sorta run and pass while the Broncos can't run a lick. I don't know. It seems too easy. Denver 31, Cincinnati 20.
Houston at Miami (+3): Still don't think Arian Foster will be ready to play and these are the kind of games the Texans always blow. If Miami can't pull this out, I'm done with 'em for the year. Miami 23, Houston 20.
San Diego at New England (-7): What the heck, a second upset pick. The Pats are overdue to lose a home game in the regular season and call me crazy, I'll take the team with the better defense. Who on New England can cover Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson or Malcolm Floyd? San Diego 30, New England 27.
Philadelphia at Atlanta (+3): First off, I'll take Vick and the Eagles in virtually any game on turf, that's a given. But when you factor in the glaring difference between the two secondaries and the fact that it will be akin to a home game for Philly because of their quarterback, how can I not take them? Also, I have to say for the record, and this is coming from an Eagles guy, that I find the whole racial dynamic of this game, where a large segment of the crowd will be rooting against their own team, very disappointing and a bit creepy. It's 2011 and we should be beyond this stuff.
That Martin Luther King Jr. message about judging a man not by the color of his skin but the content of his character cuts both ways. Vick was a good player for the Falcons, but a highly overrated one. What did he ever win for them? Shouldn't their fans revile him, if not for his crimes, than at least for being dumb enough to piss away his career there instead of worshiping him? Vick even admitted he wasn't a professional as a Falcon and didn't work nearly hard enough, yet he's still loved down there. I just don't get it. Eagles 37, Falcons 24. **THREE POINT SPECIAL**
St. Louis at NY Giants (-6): You get the feeling this game will either be a real dog or wildly entertaining, with nothing in between. The Rams are beat up on offense, while the Giants defense is decimated. If the Rams drop it, they can be staring a 1-6 start in the face. A third upset pick here, because Steve Spagnuolo knows the Giants personnel better than the other way around. Rams 20, Giants 17.
Week 1 Record: 11-5
Vs. Spread: 8-7-1
+/- Points (All games count as one unless otherwise specified): -5
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