Monday, October 31, 2011

Trick Plays All A Part Of Harbaugh's Game Within A Game

In Monday's postmortem of Sunday's 20-10 ho-hummer over the shorthanded Cleveland Browns, Jim Harbaugh said a couple of things that I thought were interesting and revealing, in their own way.

First there was this, in response to a question about if he's already started to plan for December, and Harbaugh conceded he probably does look forward more than the typical coach.

"Just generally it's just a philosophy of life, of how we approach things as a team. There’s the one philosophy that's 'yesterday's a (memory), tomorrow is a mystery, we live for the present, it’s a gift' - that kind of thing. That's not us. We reject that. We live for the future to make tomorrow better, to make this Sunday better. Everything that we can do today so we can have a better future."

Now I might be reading into things a bit, but here's what I took from that quote. Harbaugh denied it earlier in the season, but I think he was holding something back in the game plans. He was keeping it ultra conservative early on and making Alex Smith show him something, making the linemen prove they could play together, making the receivers show they were committed to the cause by blocking downfield before they got their treats in the passing game. He wanted to see what he had before he opened it up, and the Seattle Seahawks, the opening opponent, were just the kind of team to stage a preseason-esque proving ground game against. No offense to my guy Sam Lam of the Examiner (who doesn't read this anyway) but if the 49ers are Stanford, than the Seahawks were San Jose State.

My point is I think Harbaugh told us a white lie when he said the coaches put everything they can into a game plan to win and hold nothing back. After watching this team for seven games, I'm convinced that Harbaugh is confident enough in his abilities and those of his coordinators and his players, to treat the game plans by and large like that joke about the Irishman and the dick-measuring contest.

If you haven't heard it, the joke goes like this: An Irishman comes home and presents his son with a toy car and his daughter with a new doll and a bouquet of flowers for his wife. His wife is thankful for the gifts but doesn't understand the timing, as there is no special occasion for any of it. He explains to her that he won some money at the bar for a contest and wanted to share in the spoils with his family.

"What kind of contest?" she asked, dubiously.
"Oh nothing special. We just wanted to see who had the biggest member," he said, nonchalantly.
"So you just pulled the whole thing out in front of everyone?" she replied, incredulous.
"No," he said. "Just enough to win."

So yes, I think Harbaugh has coached some "just enough to win" games against Seattle, Cincinnati and yesterday against Cleveland. I believe he coaches in the short-term, but without ever losing focus on the big picture, and the timing of the trick plays where Smith threw passes to Joe Staley on a tackle-eligible play and to nose tackle Isaac Sopoaga who was lined up at fullback, was too convenient for me to ignore.

I mean, think about it. The Browns have a popgun offense. Their QB, Colt McCoy, has a noodle arm. Their two best runners -- Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty -- as well as their best receiver in Mohamed Massaquoi, were out. I don't believe Harbaugh ever regarded Cleveland as a serious threat to beat his team, not with the talent the 49ers have on defense.

What better time to experiment with a few gimmick plays? What's the downside? Sure, it's great that Staley caught the pass and made a show of getting the first down. The play made all the highlight shows and got him exposure on the NFL Network. And it's great that Sopoaga caught his third down pass late in the fourth quarter which basically iced the game. But even if neither play worked, there were no serious consequences to trying them. Even if Sopoaga dropped the ball, so what? The 49ers would've punted and the Browns would've had to drive 80 yards to tie it up. It took McCoy 53 minutes to beat that defense once. Was he really gonna do it again two drives in a row? Doubtful.

No, the point isn't that the plays were successful or not, but that Harbaugh and his coaches tried them. Now, opposing coaches (like his brother, John, with Baltimore or New York's Tom Coughlin) will have to waste 15-20 minutes every day of practice before they play the Niners working on ways to stop JOE STALEY AND ISAAC SOPOAGA from catching passes. They'll be spending time worrying about Ted Ginn on reverses and end-arounds. That's valuable time that won't be spent worrying about Frank Gore or Vernon Davis or Braylon Edwards. That's a win for Harbaugh, and how I think his "live for the future" quote applies.

There's more to my theory of Browns as guinea pigs. It's the way that, in an offense famous for favoring tight ends in the passing game, that Smith virtually ignored Davis and Delanie Walker completely and forced nearly every pass at Edwards and Michael Crabtree. It's the way they resisted throwing any screen passes to Gore or Kendall Hunter. I think Harbaugh wanted to get the wide outs going and saved the more dependable aspects of his passing game for when they'll be needed down the road.

The 49ers face another team whose offense has been decimated by injuries on Sunday in the Washington Redskins. They've already lost their best back in Tim Hightower and their starting tight end in Chris Cooley, for the year. Their best wide out, Santana Moss will be out, and there's a good chance backup tight end Fred Davis will too. Their quarterback situation is well documented and they were shutout by the Buffalo Bills on Sunday 23-0. They're so desperate that they signed Tashard Choice off waivers from the Cowboys.

So don't be surprised if you see some more "what the hell?" shenanigans from Harbaugh. A wildcat package for Colin Kaepernick? Wouldn't surprise me in the least. A receiver pass from Edwards? He's got a pretty good arm (as does Sopoaga, actually). The more practice time-wasters Harbaugh can force upon "enemy" coaches, the better. It's another house money, "just enough" game, set up on a tee, in a schedule full of them (see: NFC West standings).

Besides, by now if there's anything Harbaugh's proven besides that he's a great coach, it's that he's a pretty big dick.

Friday, October 28, 2011

Mr. Soft May Be Brown, But Not Necessarily From Cleveland

Right about now I'm guessing that Jim Harbaugh is thankful that his Stanford team was so dominant last season, because it gave him some valuable experience in playing against the dregs and lower lights of the Pac-10 (now Pac-12). I mean any coach can rally the troops and give them the "nobody believes in us" shpiel when his team is a 10-point underdog, but the rah-rah coaching manual is decidedly more vague when it comes to the question of how to motivate your team when the whole world thinks you can win simply by throwing your jerseys out on the field.

Hence our introduction to Harbaugh's latest bit of paranoia: Freddy P. Soft. What the "P" stands for is not suitable to discuss in polite company, but if you were a fan of Naughty by Nature in the 90's then you should be able to figure it out. Mr. Soft, according to Harbaugh's description is about four inches long and likes to spend his time lurking on the shoulders of overconfident football players and whispering sweet nothings into their ears about how wonderful they are and how easy the next game will be. Basically, he's a cross between your average 49ers fan on Twitter and Mr. Hankey the Christmas Poo, and his odor is more repugnant than both.

The 49ers, who enter Sunday's game against the 3-3 Cleveland Browns as 9-point favorites, have every reason in the world to be feeling rather good about themselves. They just finished a stretch of their schedule where even one win out of three against the Eagles, Buccaneers and Lions would've been considered a relative success and made them the prohibitive favorites to win the NFC West. Instead they went out and won all three, with the middle one against Tampa coming in rather convincing fashion. Then they had a bye week, which helped, according to Gen. Harbaugh, "Heal their wounds."

On the surface when you look at the match-ups, it's hard to imagine how the Browns could possibly score at all without the aid of turnovers. Receiver Mohamed Massaquoi will be out, as will workhorse Peyton Hillis, most likely. It's not like this bunch was a powderkeg offense before. The Browns are 27th in scoring (16.2), 23rd in total offense (308.3 yards), 22nd in passing (217.2 yards) and, surprisingly, 29th in rushing (91.2 yards). Second-year QB Colt McCoy is the spazziest signal caller back there outside of Arizona's Kevin Kolb.
McCoy doesn't possess a big arm and he certainly doesn't have any explosive receivers. It's a dink-and-dunk offense, the kind of outfit that can possess the ball for 43 minutes, as they did against the Seahawks last week, and yet somehow manage only six points.

Their saving grace, as with the 49ers, has been on the other side of the ball, where the Browns are fourth overall in yards allowed per game and first against the pass. 49ers Greg Roman praised the physicality of Cleveland's starting corners Sheldon Brown and Joe Haden and noted how their safeties are always in the right place. It's not a unit that's blessed with many dynamic play-makers, but one that dares you to have the patience to march down the field in 12 plays without making any mistakes (drops, penalties, missed blocks) or getting too greedy.

Basically it's the 49ers against the team everyone thought the 49ers would be. When you look at the yards the locals have gained and allowed, they really have no business being the fifth-highest scoring team in the league and second stingiest in being scored upon. The +8 turnover margin has helped, as have their boffo special teams of course. Coordinator Brad Seely, whom they poached away from the Browns, has been a godsend. While Harbaugh gets all the attention, it's Seely and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio's units who have gotten the real results.

That the Niners will have to march slowly to score shouldn't trouble them much since that's the only way they can move the ball anyway. They will welcome back Braylon Edwards against his former team to take some of the pressure off Alex Smith from having to force every pass to Michael Crabtree, but their inherent mismatch will be with tight ends Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker, as always. It won't always look pretty, but they'll cobble together the odd drive or three and it will dent the scoreboard just enough to keep your rowdies off Smith's back for another week.

Ol' Softie was last spotted in Jacksonville on Monday, where he ruined Harbaugh's brother John's evening but good. Can he fly cross-country in time to make this one sufficiently morbid? I'm thinking no, but that's because I've always been the pie-in-the-sky, wide-eyed optimist. Also, I have Davis on my fantasy team. Mainly it's because he's a fictional character conjured up by a man who, based on all available evidence, is clearly insane.

The Cardinal have had no problems beating up on the Washington States of the world, and Harbaugh's charges should have similar success against the Cougars' NFL equivalent in the Browns. And look at the bright side - If they blow it then everyone will think they stink again, and that's Harbaugh's comfort zone anyway. That's what we call a "win-win" in the biz.

Week 8 Picks

Indianapolis at Tennessee (-9):
Here's when you know things are bad for your team: When you're a 9-point dog to a team that lost 41-7 at home the week before, who's star running back is averaging less than three yards per carry and whose best receiver is out for the season. I can't commit to the Titans giving that many points to anybody. Titans 19, Colts 13

New Orleans at St. Louis (+14):
On one hand, that's a lot of points. On the other, A.J. Feeley will be getting another start and the Saints showed last week that they're not shy about handing out a proper drubbing if the opportunity's there. No Mark Ingram for the Saints means more pass attempts for Drew Brees against the world's slowest secondary. Saints 41, Rams 13

Miami at NY Giants (-10):
Miami has been pretty good at hanging around in ballgames, and Eli Manning has an odd habit of keeping terrible teams in them too (see the Seattle debacle). Maybe a pouty Reggie Bush will be pumped up for this one. Giants 24, Dolphins 16

Minnesota at Carolina (-4):
What's weirder if we looked at this match-up two months ago, the fact that the Panthers have a big quarterback edge in this game or that it would've been an even bigger edge if Donovan McNabb was still starting for the Vikings? Minnesota suspended Chris Cook -- with good reason -- so you wonder who'll be covering Steve Smith. Panthers 30, Vikings 20

Arizona at Baltimore (-13):
O how the Ravens let me down Monday night. Yet another object lesson that I know a little tiny wee bit about the Niners and precious little about anything else. I still think they're pretty good, but that's because I'm stubborn and stupid. It would be hard to give them 13 points considering they only scored 7 the other night, but then I remember how terrible the Cardinals have been on east coast road trips. A shaky vote for Baltimore. Ravens 30, Cardinals 10

Jacksonville at Houston (-10):
What's with all these huge point spreads? I'm gonna trust that Jags defense and Texans coach Gary Kubiak's wonkiness to keep it relatively close, to my great detriment I'm sure. I don't think Maurice Jones-Drew (whom I will nickname "Conveyor Belt" from now on after a story a colleague told me about him) is gonna fumble four times again, either. Texans 20, Jaguars 13

Washington at Buffalo (-6):
The game's in Toronto, which probably drops the spread a point or two. The Bills are well rested and they know they have to make hay with the Jets coming on and the Bengals, Ravens and Raiders all in the wild card hunt. The Redskins are decimated and just about ready to fold, I think. Bills 27, Redskins 17

Detroit at Denver (+3):
I'd like to think this line has more to do with the uncertainty in Detroit's quarterback situation than any misbegotten faith in Tim Tebow, but who knows how bettors think? As I recall, throwing a Christian to the Lions turned out rather one-sided. Lions 26, Broncos 10

Cleveland at San Francisco (-9):
Barring a few egregious turnovers by one Alexander Douglas Smith, I can't imagine how Browns ever score in this one, yet I bet Grant Cohn $5 that Cleveland would have at least ten first downs anyway. 49ers 23, Browns 9

Cincinnati at Seattle (+3): I can't think of a single interesting thing to write about this ballgame. Why should it be different than any of the others? Seahawks 17, Bengals 13

New England at Pittsburgh (+3): I'd like to say I have no idea what's gonna happen and that I'd just like to see a good game but let's be real, the Patriots are gonna roll 'em in annoying Bradyesque fashion because that's what they always do to the Steelers. Also, I won't get to watch it live because of my dumb job. Patriots 34, Steelers 27

Dallas at Philadelphia (-4):
Another one for the DVR. Always a fun time for me to try to get my postgame chores done at the 'Stick while the Iggles are on TV overhead. That point spread is ridiculous by the way. There is absolutely no basis for it whatsoever. So of course I'm picking them. Eagles 27, Cowboys 23

San Diego at Kansas City (+4):
The Chiefs have won three in a row and always play the Chargers tough. Their crowd figures to be especially boisterous at home. Philip Rivers is slumping as badly as he has his whole career. Well, clearly I am incapable of learning things. Chargers 27, Chiefs 17

(HOLY BALLS I AM SO BAD AT THIS, I REALLY HOPE NOBODY IS GAMBLING ACTUAL MONEY BASED ON MY PICKS)

Last week's W-L: 6-7
Season W-L: 65-38
Week 7 Vs. Spread: 3-9-1
Season Vs. Spread: 39-58-6
Week 7 +/- Points (All games count as one point unless specified): -14
Season +/- Points: -26

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

The Fallacy of the Hidden Quarterback and Week 7 Power Poll

I never thought I'd say this, but man, I miss working. Mainly, I miss watching good football. Six good/interesting clubs had a bye last week, including your Niners and my Eagles, and I think we can all agree that the league is a whole lot less interesting without Jim Harbaugh and Michael Vick (and Tom Brady and Eli Manning while we're at it). There were so many awful match-ups last Sunday and I can't think of one that surprised by turning into a good game. I spent my day at the bar ogling the bartender even more so than usual.

I didn't do much productive during the time off, just kept abreast of the league and tried to cull what I could about what the so-called experts are saying about the 49ers. Of course, all the talk is about Harbaugh and the miracles he's performing out here, and very little credit is being given to the actual players. Credit to Tim Kawakami for acknowledging the work of general manager Trent Baalke for his draft and free agent signings -- even if I wrote about that a week before he did.

There is one national story angle that's picking up some steam that's irking me a little though. You hear it from guys like Bill Simmons, Mike Lombardi, Peter King, and even the ex-scouts like Dave Razzano and Greg Cosell, that Harbaugh is somehow "hiding" or "protecting" Alex Smith. That the 49ers are winning in spite of him rather than because of him. Maybe that was true at Detroit, where Smith played poorly, but I think for the most part, it's a false narrative.

I want you to look at something.

QB A: 26.3
QB B: 28.8
QB C: 28.6


A is the number of pass attempts that Smith is averaging this season. Remember, he only had 19 at the blowout win over Tampa. B is the number that Andrew Luck is averaging for Stanford this season. C is what Luck averaged under Harbaugh last season.

Smith is generally thought of as one of the worst starting QBs in the NFL. Luck is thought of as the best quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning. Two attempts per game separate them.

Maybe, just maybe, Smith's statistics are more reflective of Harbaugh's run-first philosophy than any sense of fear or dread at having Smith wing it. If he played the same exact way with Luck, who just about any other college coach would've had in the spread throwing it 50 times a game, why wouldn't he with Smith? Remember, Harbaugh grew up idolizing Woody Hayes and played for Bo Schembechler at Michigan. He values the running game far more than people might expect him to as a former quarterback. He understands how it can get the offensive linemen in a rhythm, how it can destroy an opponent psychologically in a way the pass can't and how it can make the game so much simpler for the quarterback if the opposing front four has to honor the run first.

Harbaugh's offense works. It is still possible to run in the NFL if your guys have the appropriate talent and play with the proper technique (pad-level, angles, misdirections, etc.) Defenses these days are so programmed to go hell-bent for leather after the quarterback that it is possible to use that aggressiveness against them.

I'm not saying that Smith is in any way comparable to Luck or that I don't like watching teams like Green Bay or Manning's Colts pass it up and down the field. But variety is the spice of life and there's more than one way to skin a cat and all those cliches. David Shaw -- a former wide receiver -- took over for Harbaugh with Stanford, and it's telling that he's kept the same offensive system, where most Saturdays it seems that Luck is an afterthought. Why fix what isn't broken? Yet all the talk is how he's a Heisman candidate and a mortal lock to be drafted first overall. Nobody is saying he's being hidden or protected, because it would be a ludicrous statement.

If Tom Brady or Drew Brees was the starting quarterback for the 49ers, would they be averaging more than 26.3 pass attempts? Yeah, probably. But not much more, not with Harbaugh coaching. Dude likes to run the ball. Don't read into something that's not there.

Week 7 Power Poll:

1. Green Bay (7-0):
Undefeated, but certainly not invincible. Their defense has lost Nick Collins to injury and Cullen Jenkins and Nick Barnett to defection and they just aren't as good as they were last year. The Packers have given up 141 points. We think of the Lions as having a poor run defense and a weak secondary, and Detroit's given up 137. Maybe they'll re-focus during their bye, because the schedule is about to get tougher.

2. New England (5-1): Speaking of teams whose quarterbacks grew up cheering for the 49ers, the Pats move to the top AFC spot after a miserable showing by Baltimore on Monday. New England has squeaked by a couple of respectable opponents in Dallas and the Jets at home, but now they travel to Pittsburgh in a game that should tell us quite a bit about both teams. I'll have to tape it because of work (sigh).

3. Pittsburgh (5-2): I gotta boost the Steelers a bit after the impressive way they took care of business on Sunday. Sure, it was only Arizona, but the Cards are pretty spunky at home and it was a cross-country flight for Pittsburgh. Still, that game was never in doubt and Roethisberger continues to find his deep threats. Will they ever beat Brady though? That's the question.

4. New Orleans (5-2): I'm probably boosting them way too much for spanking the poor Colts, but I was very impressed by their three-headed rushing attack and I still feel their "A" game is better than just about anybody else's, except for the teams above. Another easy one on Sunday at St. Louis.

5. New York Giants (4-2):
They got to heal their wounds and rest up for the tough portion of their schedule, which starts in two weeks. On Sunday, they get the stinky fish. Brandon Jacobs is ready to contribute again and they've got a dangerous combination of a balanced offense and fierce pass rush right now.

6. San Francisco (5-1): Niners fans want a higher ranking, but it will come in due time if they earn it. For now, I think the five teams above would win on neutral fields. Jim Harbaugh owes his brother John a thank you. The way the Ravens let down at Jacksonville will provide an excellent teaching point about Freddy P. Soft leading up to what should be a drubbing of Cleveland.

7. Detroit (5-2): Forget Jahvid Best's concussion and their run defense and Ndamukong Suh's alleged trash-talking and all that noise. The real concern is that Matthew Stafford hasn't looked good for about a month, and he's got injury issues too. Shaun Hill may have to play this week. If they lose at Denver, then we could be looking at a total free-fall.

8. Baltimore (4-2):
What the shit was that, Flacco? It's getting so hard to defend this guy over and over. For whatever reason the Ravens offense just doesn't show up half the time, and it usually happens on the road. Now they're gonna take out their frustrations on poor (well, actually, quite rich) Kevin Kolb and the Cardinals.

9. New York Jets (4-3):
The week's big riser, and deservedly so. After a nightmarish start the Jets completely outplayed the Chargers in the second half and showed a lot of gumption on both sides of the ball. There were positive signs everywhere, from Plaxico Burress' red zone production, to Shonn Greene's running to the way they shut down San Diego's running game. Now they'll have two week's worth of good vibes to take with them to Buffalo after their bye to see if they can ever win another road game.

10. Chicago (4-3): Our other big riser. I can't ignore the Bears after their impressive win over Tampa in London. They harassed Josh Freeman into four turnovers and protected Jay Cutler well enough for the second straight week. Still a bit of a smoke-and-mirrors outfit, but Matt Forte keeps them in a lot of games. They travel to Philly a week from Monday in what should be a wild one.

11. San Diego (4-2):
You want to punish them and really drop them down a few spots, but then reality sets in and you realize their two losses were on the road to the Patriots and the Jets, hardly stiffs. It was another stink-bomb from Philip Rivers, but I continue to think he'll snap out of his funk once he gets a couple games to work with Antonio Gates. What alarmed me against the Jets was how many open receivers the Jets had the whole afternoon. The Chargers had a hell of a time beating the then-winless Chiefs at home a month ago, and now KC is red-hot and at home for a Monday-Nighter.

12. Houston (4-3):
Huge win on the road, just completely obliterating the Titans, their closest challenger in the AFC South. I'm not sure I can ever remember a game like that in Texans history. Schaub and Co. had no issues moving the ball (Arian Foster looks like he's back to 100 percent, doesn't he?) even without Andre Johnson and the defense shut down Chris Johnson -- which everyone does these days, but still. Another division tilt up next, this time at home with the Jags.

13. Cincinnati (4-2):
Interesting challenge coming up for rookie Andy Dalton and the young Bengals. On one hand, Seattle is the noisiest stadium in the league and a very imposing place to play on the road. On the other, the Seahawks are terrible, especially offensively. Should be a low-scoring affair, and Cedric Benson will have to miss it with a suspension.

14. Buffalo (4-2):
A mixture of good news and bad for the Bills. They're getting the Redskins at a time when they're decimated by injury and just about discombobulated. Unfortunately, they've had to put Shawne Merriman on IR with an Achilles problem and Aaron Maybin, their former 1st-round bust, has three sacks in the past four games for the rival Jets.

15. Tampa Bay (4-3): Josh Freeman continues his Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde routine and he was probably the biggest reason for their fruitless trip across the pond against a Chicago team they should've beat. Not only did he play poorly, but the Bucs lost Earnest Graham to a torn ACL, so there goes his security blanket on check-downs. They have a bye week to get LeGarrette Blount healthy and then a trip to New Orleans against a Saints team that will be looking for some revenge.

16. Atlanta (4-3): Alright, alright. An above-.500 record and a road win over Detroit gets you in the top half of the rankings. I still think this will be a temporary high for the flawed Falcons. Lets see after their bye they have... uh, at Indy. Well that certainly doesn't help my narrative.

*Lightning round*

17. Dallas (3-3):
Always nice to see my team's dreaded rivals run for a billion yards the week before they play the Eagles. How is Tony Romo supposed to blow it if he just keeps handing it off to DeMarco Murray?

18. Philadelphia (2-4):
One of the week's two most intriguing games is on prime time. What a novel concept. I think it'll come down to which team manages a better pass rush. I'm really not wild on the idea of Michael Vick having to make up a deficit in the fourth quarter against these guys.

19. Kansas City (3-3): It's pretty damn impossible to win 28-0 on the road when your QB played as badly as Matt Cassel did last Sunday, but that's just another example of the Kyle Boller magic for you, I guess. They've got a chance to tie for the AFC West lead on Monday, hosting Norvel's Chargers.

20. Oakland (4-2):
With Jason Campbell out, I see this ranking dropping and dropping in the near future. The first game after their bye will be against Denver, which threatens to be the worst quarterbacked game of the year -- and we've already had five or six strong candidates.

21. Carolina (2-5): Yeah, their defense is awful, but apparently not "lose to John Beck at home" awful. So I stand corrected. Battle of the rooks between cam Newton and Christian Ponder on Sunday.

22. Tennessee (3-3):
See, that's how I thought Matt Hasselbeck would play all year. I'm so happy to not have to think about them the rest of the year. Colts coming up on Sunday, so here's to the most meaningless 4-3 record in football history.

23. Cleveland (3-3):
How do you have the ball for 43 minutes and score six points? That has to be some kind of morbid record for inefficiency. The AFC North has the top four defenses, statistically-speaking, in the NFL. I'm not sure that will help the Brownies much against our locals.

24. Washington (3-3): They're on a one-way street and have realized it far too late. I hope Mike Shanahan enjoys Matt Barkley. They get to travel to T-dot to take on the Bills, and it might get ugly up there.

*The dregs*

25. Jacksonville (2-5):
The best of the worst. A frisky defense. A... decent uniform design. That's pretty much all I've got. Good luck to them at Houston. I can't believe I know two Jaguars fans.

26. Minnesota (1-6):
Christian Ponder didn't look half bad on Sunday. Neither did Donovan McNabb the past six Sundays. Maybe their problems go deeper than the QB. Ownership for one. Coaching, for another. Some bad apples in Bernard Berrian and Chris Cook. A rotten stew here, despite some quality ingredients.

27. Seattle (2-4):
Really no excuse to not score more than three at Cleveland, even with the second-stringers in the backfield. The offensive line continues to be a mess they can't fix, which isn't too surprising considering that Scot McCloughan works in their personnel department. They host the Bengals in a must-win if they have any hopes left of catching the Niners.

28. Denver (2-4): Tim Tebow is fucking terrible.

29. Arizona (1-5):
Their secondary shouldn't be this bad, considering the personnel, but it's not like they're getting much support from the front seven. Also not getting much support: Larry Fitzgerald.

30. Miami (0-6):
They've been in just about all of their games and would've won on Sunday had they recovered a simple onside kick. Instead, we've got to hear about the Tebow magic for a whole week. Just for that, they don't deserve Andrew Luck.

31. Indianapolis (0-7):
We kept wondering when exactly they would quit, and now we know. At Tennessee on Sunday in what should be an unwatchable affair.

32. St. Louis (0-6):
Every week they're trotting out what may be the slowest secondary that any NFL team has employed since the 1960's. And their defense is still better than their offense.

Friday, October 21, 2011

Week 7 Picks

Holy hell do these games stink. The league is a lot more boring without Jim Harbaugh and Andy Reid in it.

Week 7 Picks:

Atlanta at Detroit (-4):
If Jahvid Best was half the running back the Lions think he is, they'd go on a major slide without him. Instead, they'll just hand the ball off to Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams and not miss a whole lot. I do worry about that "Wide-9" defensive alignment of theirs against Atlanta's running game, but Michael Turner isn't as quick as Frank Gore. Lions 27, Falcons 20

Seattle at Cleveland (-3):
Just a hunch here. Pete Carroll has the Seahawks playing hard and at least their young guys are invested. The Browns seem to be on the verge of falling apart and I think there is a lot of infighting on the offensive side of the ball. Seahawks 20, Browns 16

Houston at Tennessee (-3):
If the Texans win here, they're the clear front-runners for the meh AFC South. I'm not gonna take them on the road against too many teams without Mario Williams and Andre Johnson though and the Titans are coming off a bye. Titans 23, Texans 17

Denver at Miami (-1):
I have no idea how the Dolphins are favored in this game. Doesn't Vegas get that they're trying to lose? On the other hand, Denver might be too. Might be worth a gander to see the Tim Tebow antics. Broncos 20, Dolphins 17

San Diego at New York Jets (+3):
The Jets as home underdogs? That's a lot of respect for a Chargers team that hasn't gotten very strong play out of Philip Rivers or much play-making from its defense. People are acting like Rex Ryans's comments were "bulletin board material" for the Chargers, but all he did was compliment their roster while putting down their coach. Half of San Diego's team probably agrees with him. I'm expecting a good game from LaDainian Tomlinson. Jets 24, Chargers 23

Chicago at Tampa Bay (in London) (-1):
Right after watching Chelsea wipe the pitch with QPR and Tottenham outlast Blackburn, the locals can take in another kind of footy and wonder what the hell the Yanks see in this bloody carnage. Lets just hope that Jay Cutler doesn't create some kind of international incident. Buccaneers 24, Bears 20 **THREE STAR SPECIAL**

Washington at Carolina (-3):
The Skins are underdogs to a one-win team? O ye of little faith for John Beck. I like how their defense matches up with Carolina. Redskins 23, Panthers 16

Kansas City at Oakland (-6):
Kyle Boller gets the start after Carson Palmer declares his arm strength isn't all the way there yet. Guess what, Carson? It's never gonna be. Chiefs crowd the box and dare Boller to beat them. Chiefs 20, Raiders 13 **TWO STAR SPECIAL**

Pittsburgh at Arizona (+4):
The last gasp for a rested and desperate Cardinals team against a Steelers defense that's been coming on but will be weary and somewhat lacking in motivation. If Kevin Kolb spazzes out in this Super Bowl rematch, the fans will turn on him for good. A shaky pick for Arizona. Cardinals 26, Steelers 24

St. Louis at Dallas (-14):
I don't care who's starting at quarterback for the Rams, the Cowboys aren't beating anybody by two touchdowns. They're not wired that way. Cowboys 27, Rams 17

Green Bay at Minnesota (+10):
Coach Leslie Frazier will keep it simple for rookie Christian Ponder by calling a lot of runs and having a conservative game plan. Then the Packers will take a 17-0 1st quarter lead and ruin everything. Packers 34, Vikings 13 **FOUR STAR SPECIAL**

Indianapolis at New Orleans (-14):
Another Super Bowl rematch, but with a bit less luster. I'm not nearly confident enough of either side of the Saints operation to lay two touchdowns. Plus, Sean Payton will have to coach from the booth. Saints 27, Colts 20

Baltimore at Jacksonville (+9):
This is the Monday night game? Really? REALLY? Good lord the people at ESPN are morons. They pay twice what NBC pays and get nothing but terrible games. At least when NBC gets a bad game it's because Peyton Manning is hurt or something they couldn't plan for. ESPN's games are just crappy from inception. The Ravens were good to me last week and I'm riding them again. Ravens 26, Jaguars 13 **FIVE STAR SPECIAL**

Last week's W-L: 8-5
Season W-L: 59-31
Week 6 Vs. Spread: 5-6-2
Season Vs. Spread: 36-49-5
Week 6 +/- Points (All games count as one point unless specified): 0
Season +/- Points: -12

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Week 7 Power Poll



Power Poll:

1. Green Bay (6-0):
I look at the halftime score against the Rams -- 24-3. Sounds about right. I look at the final score -- 24-3. What the heck happened? Did the Rams refuse to take the field in the second half? Did they forfeit? Quite a luxury for the Packers, for Aaron Rodgers to have his worst half of the season when they were already up 21 points against the worst team in football. Now they visit the Vikes, where Christian Ponder will make his first start and then comes their bye, which will pose an equal challenge.

2. Baltimore (4-1):
They let the Texans hang around for a half, and then, after Houston took a 14-13 lead, they only allowed them to cross midfield one time, and that was all the way to the 38-yard line. Ray Rice got 161 yards from scrimmage and no touchdowns, while Ricky Williams had 8 eight yards and scored. Clearly Ray Rice is a choker. This is still the superior Harbaugh-coached team, and in my opinion, the class of the AFC.

3. New England (5-1): So wait, now they're gonna play defense too? Well, that's just great. Nah, it wasn't quite that impressive for the Pats. They didn't pressure Tony Romo that much (only two sacks) and were helped by Felix Jones' early injury, which turned Dallas one-dimensional. Chad Ochocinco has been a total bust, and slowly but surely, their offense is starting to run out of tricks since people are starting to become wise to their lack of speed -- just like last year. A bye week to scheme will hold off the dogs a bit longer, but not in December and January.

4. San Diego (4-1): Coming off a bye week and looking to make some noise on the road at New York. The Chargers have been off the NFL's radar this past month with the emergence of the Raiders and the 49ers, but I've seen nothing to suggest that they're still not the best team on the west coast. They've improved incrementally and have no real weaknesses. If Philip Rivers can make hay against the vaunted Jets secondary, their secret will be out.

5. New York Giants (4-2):
Speaking of teams without a weakness, the Giants are starting to emerge, even if their overall play has been less than the sum of its parts. Their pass rush is as fearsome as any in the league; Victor Cruz and Jake Ballard have seamlessly replaced Steve Smith and Kevin Boss; and Ahmad Bradshaw is an underrated back. For my money, they're the NFC East favorites, even with all their injuries in the secondary. Will get the lowly Dolphins after their bye week.

6. San Francisco (5-1):
Here you go Niners fans -- I can't in good conscience rank them any lower. The offensive line and running game gets better and better, but Alex Smiths' completion percentage has stayed the same or dropped every game since the opener against Seattle. He badly needs Braylon Edwards back, because this throwing 15 passes to Michael crabtree stuff isn't gonna work. The bye is perfectly timed in that regard.

7. Detroit (5-1):
The better team won on Sunday, but make no mistake, the Lions were one play -- it was 4th-and-goal for the Niners from the 6-yard line -- from beating the locals. Coming into the season I was worried about their secondary, but it turns out that their run defense is the bigger issue. I'm not quite sure why they (or the Eagles) use the Wide-9 defense. Seems like more trouble than it's worth. Another concern for Detroit that popped up is that they have no short-yardage running game. Nobody on the team who can pick up a 3rd-and-2, which puts all the pressure on Matthew Stafford (who looked worse than his numbers suggested to my eye). He's lining up in shotgun and the opposing team knows they don't have to worry about the run at all. Heck, they don't even have a fullback on the roster. They tried to trade for Philly's Ronnie Brown, but the deal was voided. Let's see how they react to their loss -- and to their coach flipping out -- against Atlanta.

8. Pittsburgh (4-2):
They appear to have righted their ship for the time being, but you still wonder how Big Ben will hold up with that line. Only 17 points at home to Jacksonville isn't exactly inspiring, but they can throw it to Mike Wallace for 50-yards just about any time they want and the defense suddenly doesn't look all that old. Interesting game at Arizona coming up. Let's see if Troy Polamalu and Co. make Kevin Kolb piss his pants.

9. Buffalo (4-2): Their two losses were at Cincy and the Giants, and they had a 17-3 lead in the former and were tied at 24 and driving late in the latter, when a killer interception by Ryan Fitzpatrick doomed them. Still, this is a team that can run it, throw it and force turnovers, so they'll be hanging around in the playoff race. Their first game after their bye will be the sinking Redskins at Toronto.

10. Oakland (4-2): I can't emphasize enough how horrible their trade for Carson Palmer is. A 2012 1st-rounder and a 2013 2nd (that would be upgraded to a 1st if Raiders make AFC title game in either of the next two seasons) is an insane amount to pay for someone whose arm is shot. Didn't anyone in the Raiders' offices watch the Bengals play the last couple of years, or did their late owner refuse to spring for the Sunday Ticket package? It makes me wonder what it will take to trade for the #1 pick and the right to draft Andrew Luck. Five 1st-round picks? Ten? Also, why did they give Kyle Boller the backup job if they trust some guy who's been on his couch the past six weeks to play over him? All of a sudden the game against the Chiefs carries lots of intrigue.

11. Tampa Bay (4-2):
Clearly the problem all along was LeGarrette Blount. Well, either that or Josh Freeman actually took this opponent seriously. Whatever it was, the Bucs finally showed off a downfield passing game and their secondary took advantage of a few gifts from Drew Brees. Still not sure about Tampa's overall quality, but they sure do know how to play their division foes. For the second time in three years they're "hosting" a game at London because they can't sell out their home games. Why not just move there there permanently at this point? Just make them the London Buccaneers. Arrange their schedule so they play at home and on the road in consecutive four-game blocks to cut down on jet-lag. Lets just end the pretense already.

12. New Orleans (4-2):
I keep saying it -- this defense is built to play with a lead. When they're not leading, they look very ordinary. Brees meanwhile, was downright below ordinary, with three or four just awful throws. Mark Ingram hasn't been nearly effective as I expected during his rookie year, and once Sean Payton broke his leg and tore some knee ligaments in a collision with tight end Jimmy Graham, I had a feeling it was gonna be a long day for the Saints. However, they'll get healthy against the Manning-less Colts in another thrilling prime time game.

13. New York Jets (3-3):
Defense started slowly but warmed up after Darrelle Revis' 100-yard pick-six, which my fantasy team great appreciated. Mark Sanchez and the offense never really got going, but it was of little consequence against Miami. Playing San Diego at home will be a nice test of their level. Interesting quote from Rex Ryan, saying he could've won a couple of Super Bowls if he had the Chargers roster. I guess it's meant to fire up his team, to get them to show him they've got more talent than San Diego. Not sure how exactly the Chargers use it for bulletin board material. If they kick the Jets' asses, doesn't it prove Ryan's point?

14. Cincinnati (4-2):
A bye week on the schedule, which gives Mike Brown a whole week to laugh about the highway robbery he just pulled off. The quarterback he's playing now is already better than the one he traded. Pretty curious to see if they can pull off a win at Seattle next week.

15. Houston (3-3): The defense is already starting to show signs of cracking without Mario Williams. Eventually they'll get Andre Johnson back, and we'll get back to the usual routine of narrow shootout losses. This might be an NFC West situation, where 8-8 takes the division. Big game on the road with the Titans on Sunday.

16. Tennessee (3-2):
I pump them up, pump them up, pump them up, and they laid an egg at Pittsburgh. Now I hear they're entertaining the idea of bringing in T.O. These Titans really do know how to draw my ire. Hopefully they'll get creamed by Houston and I can ignore them completely from that point on.

(and now, the lightning round)

17. Philadelphia (2-4): What can I say? I'm that easy. As long as the Eagles play Washington or nobody every week, they'll be rocketing up these power rankings.

18. Chicago (3-3): Oh sure, if you told me ahead of time that the Bears would out-sack the Vikings 5-1 and that Devin Hester would have another return touchdown, I'd have predicted a 29-point win too. Good game at London against Tampa comin' up.

19. Dallas (2-3):
Defense was superb against the Patriots, but not enough to overcome that Romo stench. A virtual bye week now against St. Louis and a gimpy Sam Bradford, but you know Dallas will find a way to make it close.

20. Atlanta (3-3): Alright, so they beat Cam Newton at home. What do you want, a cookie? Win at Detroit and we'll talk. How sad is this slate of games when the best three match-ups are Falcons-Lions, Chargers-Jets and Bears-Buccaneers?

21. Washington (3-2):
What's this? The Redskins got off to an early promising start before quickly going into the tank and changing QBs? That never happens. If they lose at Carolina on Sunday, we can stick the fork in them, yes?

22. Seattle (2-3):
They'll probably have to start Charlie Whitehurst on Sunday, which would seem like a huge letdown if it wasn't for the fact that Tarvaris Jackson is the injured starter.

23. Cleveland (2-3):
Conveniently, Seattle's opponent this week are the Browns. I'd say some cliche thing like we can just about close the book on the loser of this game, but when it comes to these two teams, I've never opened the book in the first place.

24. Kansas City (2-3):
With a totally rusty Carson Palmer looming, that game at Oakland looks pretty winnable, doesn't it? Quite the interesting week for the AFC West.

25. Minnesota (1-5):
What happened to their defense at Chicago? Eh, I'm sure it was just a one-game blip and they'll be fine against, let's see... Green Bay. Yeah, they'll be fine.

26. Arizona (1-4):
We have reached the dregs portion of the power rankings. If the well-rested Cardinals can't summon the energy to topple a Pittsburgh team that's flying cross country, then I fear the Kevin Kolb era will come under some serious scrutiny.

27. Carolina (1-5):
Cam Newton may be crashing down to Earth, but facing John Beck should cushion his fall.

28. Denver (1-4): John Fox and John Elway want Tim Tebow to fail spectacularly, which is why they dealt away Brandon Lloyd. Unfortunately for them, the Miami Dolphins are far more committed to failure, so there might be all kinds of shenanigans in this game.

29. Jacksonville (1-5):
I hear they might be kind of okay at defense. Or something. I don't know. It's something I think I read somewhere. There's no way I'd ever watch them play.

30. Indianapolis (0-6):
How grand their game against the Saints must have seemed to the TV execs at NBC. Super Bowl re-match! Manning against Brees in Manning's hometown! If only they scheduled this six weeks later so they could flex it out. Alas.

31. Miami (0-5):
Jason Taylor said Chad Henne was better than Mark Sanchez. He made no such claims about Matt Moore. At this point they're openly tanking, right?

32. St. Louis (0-5):
Remember when Sam Bradford won the Rookie of the Year? Yeah, that was fun.

Monday, October 17, 2011

Why the 49ers Won, A Little Love For Their Unsong Hero, and Thoughts About Harbaugh's Emotions

You look at the 49ers 25-19 triumph of the previously undefeated Detroit Lions at Ford Field and the cliché sportswriter thing to do would be to wax poetic on redemption.

Alex Smith played his worst game of the season and threw what could’ve been the game-changing interception, but came back to throw the kind of clutch touchdown pass at the end that he never could these past six seasons.

Delanie Walker dropped a touchdown when he was wide open in the third quarter, but then ran the kind of slant route that Jerry Rice would’ve admired on that fateful 4th-and-goal from the 6-yard-line and was powerful enough to drag a tackler into the end zone.

Rookie Aldon Smith had an easy interception clank off his shoulder pad, but then came back to sack Detroit’s Matthew Stafford into an 18-yard loss that ruin a Lions drive and set up Walker’s go-ahead score.

Even the much-criticized Chilo Rachal, who’d been benched the past 2 ½ games, checked into the game in the fourth quarter for injured starter Adam Snyder and more than held his own against the Lions Ndamukong Suh, who’d been hyped up as football’s answer to Clubber Lang and Ivan Drago.

All of that is well and true. Those guys had their low points earlier in the game and reached exhilarating heights at the end. But all that nonsense overshadows the real nuts-and-bolts story of the game – Jim Harbaugh’s over-caffeinated postgame handshake and slap on the back with Lions head-whistle Jim Schwartz.

Kidding. Just kidding. Such an overblown total-nothing of a story. It’s all ESPN cares about – because apparently fellows like Frank Gore, NaVorro Bowman and Aldon Smith aren’t compelling enough to write stories on – so they’re driving the cattle call for the editors of the local writers to care about the story too. Frankly, the whole thing is embarrassing and makes me question why I’m in the business.

(And then I remember that I don’t like working for a living.)

No, here’s the story: The 49ers are, unquestionably, better than the Detroit Lions, and thus, by the transitive property, this makes them one of the five or six best teams in the league and a legitimate contender. There’s no need to qualify it or say “maybe if this happens” or “if the ball bounces that way,” or anything like that. Right now, what they have on their roster and on their coaching staff is good enough to play deep into January. I’ve seen enough and I’ve become a believer.

Consider all that the 49ers had going against them on Sunday. First off, they were on the road, which had not been kind to them in the past decade. Secondly, they were playing a team that hadn’t lost at home in nearly a calendar year. They were without Joshua Morgan, who was lost for the season last week and also missing Braylon Edwards, who’s still on the mend, leaving the mercurial (another sportswriter cliché alert) Michael Crabtree as their only decent receiver. Of the 11 primary defenders they would be using the game, eight were different than the primary 11 they fielded last season.

Still, on a day when Alex was only their third-best Smith, when the team was a -2 in the turnover department – a road team winning in such a case is about as rare as a Halley’s comet sighting – and the fellas misbehaved to the tune of 15 penalties for 120 yards, the 49ers still found a way to prevail because they had better players, better coaching and more composure at the end.

Past 49ers teams would’ve fallen apart down 10-0 early on the road and the game would’ve turned into a disaster. This one never led the Lions get out of shouting distance, even in the ear-splitting din of their dome. The coaching staff wisely game-planned to use the over-aggressiveness of the Lions front four against them, the way karate senseis teach their pupils to do. Detroit uses the same “wide-nine” front that the Philadelphia Eagles do, lining their ends up exaggeratedly wide and putting them in sprinter stances to explode off the ball and go hell-bent after the quarterback. These guys do not care one whit about stopping the run. As a consequence, that leaves the two defensive tackles with four gaps to cover, the two between the guards and the tackles and the two between the center and guards. And those guys aren’t reading and reacting either. They want to get sacks too, so they’re also picking a gap and exploding through it. When they guess right, they stuff the run on their way to the quarterback. When they guess wrong… well then guys like Frank Gore (15 carries, 141 yards) start getting smaller and smaller as they run off into the distance.

Even in the passing game, the coaches schemed well enough to get Crabtree open quite a bit (whether Smith actually threw it within Crab’s zip code or not was a different story) and to get Walker wide open in the end zone in the third quarter and on the game’s biggest play, where Walker’s slant was helped along by a sneaky Crabtree pick. That the 49ers didn’t do more damage in the passing game was due to some misfires by the quarterback, some drops by the receivers and generally mistakes of San Francisco’s own making than anything the Lions did.

Defensively, the staff saw that Stafford gets rid of the ball too quickly, too often to make blitzing him worthwhile, and that most of Detroit’s big plays happened when their opponents brought pressure. So the Niners gambled… by not gambling. As Harbaugh noted during his Monday presser, the 49ers didn’t bring more than a four man rush on any of the Lions’ 78 plays from scrimmage. They just played their nickel defense pretty much the whole game, with two-man over help from the safeties (Donte Whitner and Dashon Goldson was each responsible for half the field) and let Bowman cover the back and Patrick Willis cover tight end Brandon Pettigrew.

Come to think of it, I think defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who said he’d never been associated in a better defensive effort than this one, according to Harbaugh, was giving us a bit of a snow-job during training camp when it came to Willis. Fangio said that Willis was better than he expected in virtually every facet but blitzing and that he would have to work on that skill. I filed that comment away at the time because I thought, "Huh, it’s odd he thinks a guy who had six sacks last year needs to work on his blitzing," when I always thought Willis’ biggest weakness was in pass coverage.

My theory is that Fangio intentionally threw us off track and actually got Willis to work on his coverage skills. Wills has hardly blitzed all year, but has been tremendous in coverage. Yesterday might be the best game I’ve ever seen from him in that regard. He made three or four plays on the ball in the red zone when he was clearly targeted, and even the one time Pettigrew scored a touchdown on him, it took a perfect throw, as Willis was practically in the tight end’s shirt. I think the Niners thinking all along was to give the Lions what looked like a mismatch with Pettigrew, all but daring them to throw to him, so they’d have less incentive to go to Calvin Johnson in the red zone. The Lions fell for it, hook, line and sinker.

Harbaugh and the coaches will get all the credit for this 5-1 start, but general manager Trent Baalke, who’s been mocked, derided and dismissed through much of his 49ers tenure, deserves a lot of praise himself. It’s been fashionable to look at the 2010 49ers as by-and-large the same team as the 2011 version, but there have been changes at virtually every position.

Carlos Rogers has been a godsend at cornerback, and center Jonathan Goodwin, safety Donte Whitner and kicker David Akers have also been clear upgrades as free agent additions. Perhaps Edwards will be too, when he gets on the field again. Meanwhile, in the draft he’s gotten immediate contributions from Kendell Hunter, Bruce Miller, Chris Culliver and Aldon Smith. Of the ten picks in the 49ers draft class, Hunter was probably the only one who got universal praise from the experts out there, but Baalke was ripped for just about all the others.

Aldon Smith certainly looks the part, but the fear about him was that he’d be another one of these guys that (cliché alert) looks like Tarzan and plays like Jane. How about “looks like Tarzan, plays like Tarzan after Jane cheated on him with the opposing quarterback?”

Culliver had prototypical size and speed, but only had three games worth of experience at corner in the SEC. He switched positions from safety as a senior at South Carolina and suffered a season-ending injury early in the season. Baalke didn’t care, and so far he looks like a genius. Culliver’s talent was easy to see during individual drills in training camp, and even back then it was apparent that if this kid could put the time in to be a pro, that he’d be a starter in this league for a long time. He didn’t “shut down” Megatron yesterday by any means, but he limited the damage, tackled well and didn’t allow the big play.

To draft Miller, who was a two-time Conference USA Defensive Player of the Year at UCF, and turn him into a fullback was thought of as ludicrous. Now, not so much. He’s been the starter the past three games, where the 49ers have totaled 580 rushing yards and Moran Norris may not be in the plans anymore.

Then you look at the way Bowman’s blossomed – he might very well be the 49ers MVP through six games – he was a 3rd round pick in 2010. You look at the progress Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis have made. Baalke saw the potential in Ray McDonald and gave him a five-year, $20 million contract and decided to let Aubrayo Franklin go. McDonald has been terrific so far as a full-time starter (I was way wrong on that one) and the run defense hasn’t missed a beat with Isaac Sopoaga at the nose.

However you want to view the win, the thing we have to put a stop to right now is this silly notion that Harbaugh is rallying the troops because of his emotion, his competitiveness, his sideline antics, etc. The players readily agree to lazy Hollywood premises like this because A) they think we’re idiots who’ll believe anything they tell us B) it amuses them that we so readily gobble up this tripe and C) it beats telling us the truth for why games are won and lost, which would get them into all kinds of trouble with all kinds of people.

In case you folks had electroshock therapy to expunge the Mike Singletary era from your memories, Harbaugh’s sideline behavior was EXACTLY the same kind of stuff the media at large ripped him for. We said Singletary didn’t deserve to be a coach because he was TOO EMOTIONAL, that he still thought of himself as a player, and that he wasn’t mature enough to lead a football team.
Now we’re giving Harbaugh praise for the exact same characteristics and behavior? Get out of here with that garbage.

Harbaugh is a much better football coach than Singletary because of the things he does to help prepare the team Monday-Saturday, because of the ways he can provide information of substance to his quarterbacks, and because instead of telling his team to run the ball better, he actually schemes a way for them to do so. Or maybe he was just prescient enough to hire a better staff around him. Either way, “Who’s got it better than us?” doesn’t mean a lick more than “Physical with an F.”

He’s a better football coach because he’s a better coach. How’s that for your cliché?

Friday, October 14, 2011

Alex Smith Deserves Better Than Lazy Narrative; Week 6 Picks

Here's the thing: It was stupid, pointless and self-serving for Brett Favre to suggest on the radio, as he did a couple weeks ago, that his successor Aaron Rodgers fell into a perfect situation with a loaded roster. Favre came off petty, jealous and desperate for attention. He never should've said it or fallen for his interviewer's trap. Here's what Favre should've said about Rodgers:

"He's amazing, he's incredibly talented, I saw first-hand how hard he works at it and how dedicated he is and Packers fans will enjoy watching him play for a long, long time."

That would've been the truth.

However, what Favre said was also the truth, and that's largely been ignored because he said it.

It's been fashionable for some time to view the 49ers decision to draft Alex Smith with the first overall pick of the 2005 instead of Rodgers as some epic blunder, and to view the two players through the same historical prism that we use for Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf or Michael Jordan and Sam Bowie. Smith has by-and-large been thought of as one of the all-time draft busts.

It's a label that was never fair to Smith and one that never fit. There was no logical reason for him to play as poorly as he did. He was smart, athletic, an extremely hard worker and very coachable. He handled himself well in the locker room and with the media, unlike the petulant Leaf. He was everything an organization would want in its quarterback six days a week and every off-season. During game days though, it just didn't work.

While many bay area football fans wanted the team to draft Rodgers because he was a local kid who played at Cal, many talent evaluators preferred the more athletic Smith. The two were neck-and-neck in many attributes, but ultimately Mike Nolan (who had current Packers coach Mike McCarthy on his staff) chose the mild-mannered Smith because he was less likely to challenge him and defy his instructions. Rodgers was more arrogant and cocky, the way most star athletes are.

That Rodgers is a better player than Smith is not up for debate. What is interesting though is the Shakespearean tragedy of their career arcs. Whereas Rodgers had every advantage possible, Smith has had nothing but obstacles.

Rodgers came from a pro-style offense at Cal and was more ready to play right away. Still he got to sit for three seasons and learn behind Favre, to really hone his craft mentally before he ever had to step on the field. Smith played in a gimmick offense at Utah under Urban Meyer and couldn't have been less prepared for the pro game. He was the guy who should've grown intimate with the bench for a couple of years. Instead he was thrown on the field virtually straight away and asked to lead what was basically an expansion team in terms of its roster. It was no surprise given all that, that he threw 11 interceptions before connecting on his first touchdown pass.

Smith desperately needed good coaching, and stable, patient leadership. Instead he's had nothing but chaos. Time has robbed fans of their memories from 2006, the last season before this one where they weren't ashamed to admit that Smith was their team's quarterback. Under offensive coordinator Norv Turner he was improving practically at a geometric rate, and particularly looked good toward the end of the season. Unfortunately for him, Turner took the San Diego job and Smith was saddled with a parade of jokers at coordinator and the next four years. It was borderline criminal what Nolan did to him in 2007, first sticking him with Jim Hostler and then questioning Smith's manhood and ordering him to play with a separated shoulder. The injury robbed Smith of two seasons and nearly ended his career.

Rodgers on the other hand has played for McCarthy, who serves as his own offensive coordinator, his whole career. He hasn't had to crack open the playbook in years because nothing has changed. He's also gotten to throw to Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson, James Jones and Jermichael Finley for years whereas Smith's had to endure a revolving door of receivers, all of whom were less talented than their Green Bay counterparts.

Imagine if the roles were reversed and Rodgers had to make do with Nolan as his coach and no one around him. How often would they have butted heads and how quickly would've Nolan shipped him out of town while he still had the authority to do so? Don't forget, Nolan wasn't fired midway through the 2008 season for the way he ruined Smith. He was canned because he proved he couldn't win with Mike Martz and J.T. O'Sullivan either.

Contrary to popular opinion, Joe Montana and Bill Walsh weren't the best of pals and "Joe Cool" would often scream ten-letter unmentionables involving a synonym for a chicken and the function of a vacuum cleaner at his coach after Walsh offered him coaching points on the sidelines. And Walsh actually knew what he was talking about. Imagine how a guy like Montana would've reacted toward the inept Nolan or the clueless Mike Singletary, and it starts to sink in why it wouldn't have been the paradise you all daydream about with Aaron Rodgers in the red and gold. There's no way he would've saved the Nolan 49ers because they were beyond saving from him, from Montana, from anyone. You couldn't write a screenplay about the level of dysfunction at all levels the organization had without it sounding like some cliched cheesy sports movie fiction.

While we're in the realm of the Hollywood narrative, it's become accepted as chapter and verse that Smith, who's third in the NFL with a 104.1 passer rating and has led the 49ers to a 4-1 record, has somehow experienced a career transformation under Jim Harbaugh, the first credible offensive coach he's had since Turner. It's a popular theory, but it's also lazy and wrong. Smith, who showed flashes of potential in a series here or a quarter there in his two seasons since returning from injury, seemed to have finally turned the corner in the second half of the 2010 season, and stopped throwing the ball to the other guy.

Over his final six appearances he threw for eight touchdowns to one interception and in his last ten starts overall he's completed 159-of-263 passes (60.5%) for 1,986 yards, with 15 touchdowns and two interceptions. Has Smith improved under Harbaugh? Unquestionably. Was Smith, ridiculously underrated even before Harbaugh'd hire? Absolutely.

Because of injuries and benchings, Smith who started in the NFL three years before Rodgers did, is still the less-experienced player. He's made 55 starts to Rodgers' 57, counting playoffs. His football card says is in the midst of his seventh season, but really it's more like his fourth, and he's progressed the way you'd expect a fourth year starter to, slowly and steadily. He just needs what Rodgers has had -- good teammates, good coaching and stability with both.

So yes, it's true. Rodgers did fall into a good situation.

But you know what? So did Jim Harbaugh.

Week 6 Picks

Philadelphia at Washington (+2):
The Redskins are leading the NFC East at 3-1, are third in the league in both total and scoring defense, have had two weeks to rest and prepare coming off their bye, and have the motivation of being underdogs at home to a 1-4 team. So of course I like the Eagles, quite possibly the dumbest team in NFL history, to win. Eagles 27, Redskins 20

San Francisco at Detroit (-5):
I’d like the 49ers more if they had Morgan and Edwards, but they’re gonna be shorthanded at receiver. I also have questions about that offensive line on the road. The Lions have outscored their foes 109-23 in the second half this season. Lions 27, 49ers 17 **TWO STAR SPECIAL**

Indianapolis at Cincinnati (-7):
You gotta give the Colts credit -- they've turned this tanking thing into a science. Every week they manage to blow games late and it totally looks authentic and like they're trying to win. I really hope the Emmy people have been paying attention. The Bengals, meanwhile, have inexplicably fielded one of the best defenses in the league so far. Bengals 20, Colts 17

Carolina at Atlanta (-4):
So many people are expecting an upset here that it no longer seems like an upset. And here I was, feeling bold and original. Julio Jones will be out for the Falcons, which means they're right where they were when the playoffs started last season, with three losses and no ramshackle secondary. Good thing they'll have all those draft picks to shore up that area of need, right? Panthers 30, Falcons 27 **THREE STAR SPECIAL**

St. Louis at Green Bay (-15):
On paper this seems like an uneven match-up. Fortunately for the Rams, games aren't played on paper, they're played on the field, where on any given Sunday, anybody can beat anybody. Unfortunately for the Rams, the only Sunday they wouldn't be totally obliterated on the field by the Packers would be Oct. 30, when Green Bay will be on their bye week. Packers 37, Rams 13

Buffalo at New York Giants (-3):
The Bills like to give up yards by the bushel and collect turnovers. The Giants like to collect yards like it's going out of style and to give the ball away. These two should get along swimmingly. I wish I could buy stock in "Chris Berman will pick a 20-19 score for this game on his lame-ass Swami predictions." Bills 24, Giants 23.

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-13): Signs your market doesn't deserve a a pro team No. 731 -- When your beat reporters keep asking the opposing coach during a conference call about a playoff game four seasons ago. Mike Tomlin, who has led the Steelers to a Super Bowl win and a Super Bowl loss since losing a wild card game to the Jags, was rightly annoyed to have to field questions about that game. Why not just ask him if the Jaguars should've taken Warren Sapp instead of Tony Boselli in the 1995 draft while you're at it? Steelers 26, Jaguars 10

Cleveland at Oakland (-7):
Normally this would be a trap game, but the Raiders figure to still be inspired, for obvious reasons. The Browns figure to be slow, talentless, and largely spazzy at quarterback. Raiders 27, Browns 13 **FOUR STAR SPECIAL**

Houston at Baltimore (-8):
The Texans will be without their best players on either side of the ball in Andre Johnson and Mario Williams and may be missing Arian Foster as well. The Ravens are well rested and Joe Flacco has played well in the odd-numbered weeks, so that's good enough for me. Ravens 27, Texans 16 ** FIVE STAR SPECIAL **

Dallas at New England (-7):
Or as I call it, "The Meteor Bowl." Who I will be rooting for will largely depend on the results of the morning's Eagles-Redskins tilt, but either way I'm not sure how much of Cowboys-Pats will resonate with me since blood will be gushing out of my eye sockets. I was thinking what would be the best way to ruin the day for both fan bases and to make Skip Bayless' head explode, and I figured it out: Have Tom Brady and Tony Romo make out on the 50-yard-line after the game. Obviously, this would make me like both of them way more. Patriots 34, Cowboys 30

New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+5):
No LeGarrette Blount for the Bucs, who couldn't even sell out this game. They should just combine with the Jaguars and Dolphins to form one super Florida franchise that no one will care about. And by "super" I mean maybe a 10-6 record and a wild card birth. I look for Josh Freeman to bounce back and keep this close, but, ultimately, Drew Breeeeeeeeees. Saints 27, Buccaneers 24

Minnesota at Chicago (-3):
An intriguing match-up between one quarterback who gets slammed to the turf routinely and another who likes to drill footballs to the turf like he's Michael Vick, but with worms instead of dogs. An upset pick for the Vikes, who are "arrow up" in Harbaugh parlance. Vikings 20, Bears 16

Miami at New York Jets (-7):
Brandon Marshall promised that he would be so intense for this game that he'll get ejected by the second quarter, and he's just nuts enough where I believe him. I'm guessing he meant for it to sound inspiring to teammates, but instead he comes off looking a loon. The Jets, meanwhile, have all kinds of problems but would need an all-time stinker from Mark Sanchez to keep Miami in the game. Jets 23, Dolphins 10

Last week's W-L: 8-5
Season W-L: 51-26
Week 5 Vs. Spread: 5-7-1
Season Vs. Spread: 31-43-3
Week 5 +/- Points (All games count as one point unless specified): +6
Season +/- Points: -12

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

The Definition of Coaching, Morgan on IR, Week 6 Power Poll

Coach Jim Harbaugh and his staff are getting a lot of credit, deservedly so, for the 49ers 4-1 start, but I think it's important to not get it twisted. He and offensive coordinator Greg Roman, defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and the rest of the assistants are coaches, not miracle workers. What they're doing is teaching their players, putting them in the best tactical position to succeed, taking advantage of their strengths and minimizing their weaknesses while at the same time exploiting the weaknesses of their opponents.

In other words, they're doing their jobs. They're coaching.

What Harbaugh and his staff are doing is getting the players to play to their potential, not over it. For the most part this is how Trent Baalke, and Scot McCloughan before him and Mike Nolan before him, envisioned these guys performing when they drafted them. The 49ers have been a bad club for a long time and thus they've accumulated a lot of high draft picks. They've had the opportunity to draft the biggest and fastest guys year after year. Finally they have the coaches to take advantage of that talent; the right teachers and strategists who can mold these lumps of clay, all these weapons at their disposal, the right way.

This roster is not the Bad News Bears or the 2008 Detroit Lions. There's a lot of talented guys here and there was a reason this team was the prohibitive division favorites in 2009 and 2010. Some folks may look at the 4-1 record and the way they dismantled Tampa Bay as proof that Harbaugh is Bill Walsh reincarnated. I think it's proof of how in over their heads Nolan and Mike Singletary were and how spectacularly this team underachieved while they were in charge. Even an average NFL coaching staff would've been sufficient to get this team in the playoffs in the sorry NFC West the past couple of seasons.

Now don't get me wrong, I think Harbaugh is a good coach. But he fell into a perfect situation. The 49ers were so mismanaged the past few years that they suckered the national pundits into this false narrative that the team was void of talent, when really most first-time coaches would kill to come into a situation this good.

Look at the linebackers. Who's got a quartet like Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, Ahmad Brooks and Aldon Smith? All those guys are athletic as hell and can run with anybody. Safety Dashon Goldson is a heat-seeking missile when he's right and hits as hard as anybody. Justin Smith is as good as any 3-4 defensive end in the league.

Offensively, Vernon Davis is a mismatch against every team in the league. No linebacker can hope to run with him. Michael Crabtree was drafted in the top ten because he had no holes in his game in college. He wasn't elite in any category except getting in and out of his breaks, but he had great hands, good leaping ability, good speed, good run-after-catch skills, etc. Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis were picked high because they're massive bulldozers who can move and get out on the second level on pulls and traps and screens.

General manager Baalke deserves tremendous credit as well, not just for his 2011 draft class, which has yielded immediate contributors in Aldon Smith, Kendall Hunter, Bruce Miller and Chris Culliver, but also for the numerous free agent signings after the lockout that have patched holes and legitimately improved the club, such as Carlos Rogers, Donte Whitner and Jonathan Goodwin.

Finally, the guy who deserve some real kudos is a fella by the name of Alex Smith, but that's a story for Friday.

Morgan’s Unfortunate Injury

WR Joshua Morgan suffered what Harbaugh described as a broken bone in his lower right leg during Sunday’s 48-3 wipeout of Tampa Bay and had surgery to repair it the following day. Harbaugh said he will be out for “an extended time” and it was revealed Wednesday morning that Morgan would be placed on injured reserve and lost for the season. It's a bad break (no pun intended) for Morgan, who is without question one of the most popular players on the team by teammates and media alike. His contract is up after this season and his future is in limbo, depending on how well he's able to recover from his injury. Morgan led the wideouts with 15 receptions for 220 yards and seemed well-suited for Harbaugh's West Coast Offense, where he ran the slant patten well and excelled at gaining yards after the catch. He was also an excellent blocker on the perimeter, and the running game will suffer in his absence.

The story surrounding the injury was the timing of it. The score was 41-3 at the time with around four minutes to go and the offense at the Buccaneers’ 20-yard-line. Harbaugh decided to go for it on 4th-and-2 and rookie QB Colin Kaepernick passed it to Morgan, who caught the pass and then had his leg rolled up on by a defender while trying to work his way into the end zone.

Harbaugh defended the decision, saying, "The thought process was to make a first down, get back into running the clock down to the point where you can take a knee. There is no second team on a 46-man roster, offense, defensively, or special teams. You kick the field goal, you expose the kicker. You take a knee, now the defense is back on the field, you don’t want to put your defense back there. Next option is throw a short pass, which we did. Try to get the first down and now you’re taking more time off the clock. Run the ball, you’re still, in my experience, more times offensive linemen are rolled up on a run play than a pass play. Really, you’re trying to dodge bullets at that point. The intent is to get the clock down to where you can take a knee. This occasion, we didn’t dodge it."

All well and good and it sounds very convincing. The problem is I'm sure Harbaugh had a plausible quote to explain why he went for two when he was already up a thousand points against USC, prompting Pete Carroll to ask him "What's your deal?" too. This just in, coaches lie to the media. While Harbaugh is right that there is an injury risk on every play, there was no need to play Morgan in that spot because there was no need to use a three receiver formation in that spot because there was no need to pass in that spot. Harbaugh was running up the score, which is standard operating procedure for him.

Inject him with sodium pentathol about why he passed there and I'm guessing Harbaugh's answer would be something more along the realm of "Because eff them and eff you, that's why."

Which would be awesome, by the way.

****************************************************************************

49ers Sign WR Swain

With Braylon Edwards still a couple weeks away from returning from his knee injury, the 49ers needed a fourth receiver, so they signed free agent Brett Swain, 26, who is 6-1 and 200 pounds. Swain, who was drafted in the 7th-round by Green Bay in 2008 out of SDSU, played two seasons for the Packers, and saw time in all 20 games for them last season, catching six passes for 72 yards in the regular season and leading the team with three special teams tackles in their Super Bowl win over Pittsburgh. Swain is mainly known for his special teams work, so it will be interesting if he will supplant Kyle Williams as the fourth receiver once Edwards returns to active duty, because of his prowess in that area. As you surely know by now, the 49ers place a huge emphasis on special teams, and their dominance in that phase of the game under coordinator Brad Seely is a big reason they’ve started 4-1.

***********************************************************************************
49ers Statistical Rankings, presented without comment:

49ers Offensive Rankings:


Rushing: 117.2 YPG (12th); Yards Per Carry: 4.0 (T-20th); Rushing Touchdowns: 6 (T-4th);

Passing: 183.0 YPG (29th); Completion Percentage: 66.7 (5th); Yards Per Attempt: 7.8 (T-10th);

Passing Touchdowns: 7 (T-15th); Interceptions: 1 (T-1st); Sacks: 14 (T-24th);

QB Rating: 104.8 (3rd); 3rd Down Percentage: 33.9 (22nd);

Yards Per Game: 300.2 (27th); Scoring: 28.4 (7th)

49ers Defensive Rankings:

Rushing: 76.4 YPG (T-4th); Yards Per Carry: 3.6 (7th); Rushing Touchdowns: 0 (1st)

Passing: 264.0 YPG (23rd); Completion Percentage: 58.0 (11th); Yards Per Attempt: 7.2 (T-12th);

Passing Touchdowns: 7 (T-11th); Interceptions: 8 (3rd); Sacks: 12 (T-11th);

Fumbles Forced: 5 (T-7th); Fumbles Recovered: 5 (2nd);

3rd Down Percentage: 35.3 (11th); Yards Per Game: 340.8 (13th); Scoring: 15.6 (2nd)

49ers Special Teams Rankings:


Kickoff Return: 32.5 Avg (2nd); Kickoff Return Allowed: 21.3 Avg (5th);

Punt Return: 11.8 Avg (11th); Punt Return Allowed: 8.5 Avg (13th);

Field Goal Percentage: 83.3 (T-19th); Net Punt Average: 47.5 Yards (2nd)

Giveaway/Takeaway:

Giveaways: 4 (T-1st); Takeaways: 14 (T-2nd); Plus/Minus: +10 (2nd)
*******************************************************************************
Power Poll:

1) Green Bay (5-0):
The gulf between them and number two is probably as wide as between number two and number 20. They fall behind 14-0 to a fired up Atlanta team in their dome and couldn't be less rattled. For a lot of good teams with high-octane offense, a 14 point deficit wouldn't be the end of the world and maybe they'd come back and win a shootout with the Falcons 38-35. The Packers simply didn't allow another point and won going away, intercepting Matt Ryan twice and making him, and Atlanta, look rather ordinary. (Which they are.)

2) Baltimore (3-1): They improve their standing while resting. New Orleans plays too many close games against too many blah teams for my liking. Good test coming up against the Texans at home (but without Andre Johnson and Mario Williams).

3) New Orleans (4-1):
The Saints defense may be better than you think. They lead the league in completion percentage allowed, and are up there in yards-per-attempt and sacks too. The guys they've given up a ton of yards to (Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub, Cam Newton) everybody struggles against. The offense remains as daunting as ever and Drew Brees is as good in the two-minute drill as anyone. Real interesting game coming up at Tampa.

4. New England (4-1):
They held the Jets to 255 yards. Does that mean their defense is turning it around, or do the Jets really stink that badly? There's no way a quarterback like Mark Sanchez should be held to 166 when he only takes two sacks and throws no picks. Offensively, the Pats remain as indefatigable as ever and continue to frustrate fantasy owners with their revolving running back situation. They've got the Cowboys at home in the Meteor Bowl on Sunday.

5. Detroit (5-0): I wonder if Alex Smith watched that game Monday night with all that noise and the heat the Lions front four was bringing and all those false starts by the Bears offensive line. I'd be chugging Pepto Bismol if I were him watching that, wouldn't you? Jahvid Best ran for 163 yards against Chicago, but you'll forgive me if I need more convincing with him. How big of a lead would the 49ers need to have on Sunday for you to feel comfortable? Detroit has outscored their foes 109-23 in second halves.

6. Buffalo (4-1): Two impressive wins over New England and Philly, but I see a couple of bad omens. First, their defense can't stop anybody. Sure, they're getting turnovers by the bushel, but that kind of thing comes in chunks and the Bills don't have the pass rush to keep that going. Second, the Eagles held those receivers in check pretty easily in the second half. Buffalo's entire offense was pretty much Fred Jackson running and catching it. With Donald Jones sidelined a good long while, the receiving corps is Stevie Johnson and not much else. They test their mettle against another NFC East foe at the Giants.

7. San Diego (4-1): Slowly starting to put it together. Once they get Antonio Gates back, they'll be their usual unstoppable selves on offense (pre-January). Defense is another story, but their schedule is cake. They get to rest up this week.

8. San Francisco (4-1):
For the first time since 2002, the 49ers are in the upper quadrant of the NFL. Hey, they've earned it. They had their starting safety tandem playing together for the first time and the results speak for themselves. Rookies Aldon Smith and Chris Culliver are coming on. The inside linebackers are beasts. As are the tight ends. And the running backs. Alex Smith is playing out of his mind. Who are these guys? They win at Detroit, and cue the Sports Illustrated cover story on Harbaugh.

9. Oakland (3-2): Most impressive win of the week, at Houston. Raiders have a lot of pieces and if they get any decent play from their secondary, they're very tough to beat. Can't punish them too much for losing to two teams above them in the rankings. This looks like the best offense they've had since they went to the Super Bowl and the defense played as hard against Houston as I've ever seen it. Trap game at home vs. Cleveland or will they be able to keep up that intense emotion of Al Davis' passing for the home fans?

10. Houston (3-2): Just brutal, losing their best player on offense and defense. At least Andre Johnson is only going to miss a few weeks. Losing Mario Williams for the season is a game-changer for them. Maybe -- maybe -- they'll still win the division, but the defense is about to go "arrow down" in Harbaugh-speak in a major way. And now they have to go to Baltimore. Oy vey.

11. Pittsburgh (3-2): Got healthy against an over-hyped Tennessee team and Big Ben and his receivers showed just how irrelevant Rashard Mendenhall is for them in the grand scheme. There's only a dozen or so running backs that truly matter in the NFL and he's not one of them. Pretty much a "bye" at home with the Jags now.

12. Washington (3-1): They have one loss and that was on the road against a team that had to convert a 3rd-and-21 to beat them, so that deserves some respect. The Redskins have a legit defense, with two bookend pass-rushers, a great middle linebacker and a hard-hitting safety. Offensively they have a three-headed running game, Santana Moss and a couple decent tight ends. The specter of Rex Grossman looms over it all though.

13. New York Giants (3-2):
Boy did they blow that one against Seattle? I guess it makes up for the game they had no business winning the week before at Arizona. Like their New York neighbors, the Giants have surprisingly struggled to run the ball, putting too much stress on Eli Manning. Their pass-rush keeps on keeping on, but that defense comes and goes. Bills up next, can't lose two straight home games, can they?

14. Cincinnati (3-2):
I respect their defense, even if I don't get how they're doing it. Cedric Benson, A.J. Green and Jermaine Gresham are all talents and rookie Andy Dalton is everything I thought he'd be. Comeback to beat Bills deserves respect and now they get the Colts at home to go to 4-2?

15. New York Jets (2-3): You wanna kill them, but look who they've lost to: at Oakland, at Baltimore, at New England. It's fairly rare in the first place to have three straight road games, but not one twinkie in the bunch? Rex Ryan shipped out malcontent Derrick Mason to the Texans, but until the Jets figure out how to run the ball and stop the run like they used to, they'll be an average team. Looks like a reprieve on Monday night against Miami, but imagine the media crush if they drop that one. Remember, Jason Taylor said Mark Sanchez is worse than Chad Henne.

16. Dallas (2-2): Injuries at receiver and defensive back, but the stats say they should be a top-tier team. Is it all Tony Romo's fault that they're not? No, but it's fun to pretend, right? The good news about their game at New England is virtually nothing could happen that would leave me unhappy outside of a 56-56 tie where both quarterbacks break every single-game passing record in the books.

17. Tennessee (3-2): I finally believe in them and they go lay an egg at Pittsburgh. They might still luck into a division title because of Houston's injuries, but only if Chris Johnson starts playing worth a damn. I know they're stacking the line against him, but Frank Gore and Adrian Peterson have figured it out lately, haven't they? They get a bye to lick their wounds and watch everyone else beat the crap out of one another.

18. Tampa Bay (3-2): Scheduled loss at San Francisco, but 48-3? That's just an embarrassing, immature lack of effort by everyone involved. Losing Gerald McCoy is no excuse to stop tackling. It was shameful how they let the 49ers run student body left, student body right with no impediment like USC. That's not supposed to work in the NFL. Letting Gore get off-tackle runs where he's not touched for 10 yards against eight man fronts seems wonky too. Now they're home against the Saints, which will tell us what the NFC South is all about.

19. Atlanta (2-3): They lose to Green Bay 48-17 in the playoffs and trade pretty much all of their draft and next year's too for Julio Jones to beef up their offense... and then score 14 against the Packers. But hey at least Aaron Rodgers only threw for infinity yards against them instead of the infinity + 5 he had in January, so progress. Now they get Cam Newton in their fast track at home. Good luck with that.

20. Carolina (1-4):
Speaking of which, this seems as good a spot as any for the Panthers. Their offense won't let them get blown out, and eventually they'll play some crap teams, right? As you've no doubt deduced, I'm picking them to upset Atlanta.

21. Minnesota (1-4):
They do everything pretty well except for throwing the ball. I'm not gonna kill them for that. Could totally see them winning at Chicago. Donovan McNabb usually plays well in his hometown.

22. Chicago (2-3): If Michael Vick's offensive line was as bad as Jay Cutler's, he'd voluntarily go back to prison. My word are they awful. The rest of the team though? Meh. That's what Minnesota-Chicago has become: A big bowl of "Meh."

23. Philadelphia (1-4):
If their coach had a brain and if they had some linebackers and if they could tackle and if their receivers would stop carrying the ball like it's a skunk and if their line blocked somebody and if their QB stopped throwing it to the other guys and if their backup QB just shut his yap and if their corners actually ever pressed their receivers and if their defensive coordinator was actually a defensive coordinator; if all that actually happened, then maybe these guys wouldn't suck ass. HUGE game at Washington.

24. Seattle (2-3): Two wins in their last three and a two-point loss in between. Undrafted Doug Baldwin out of Stanford is third among rookies in receptions behind only A.J. Green and Julio Jones, who were both among the top six picks. The Hawks also found Brandon Browner, a corner out of the CFL who's 6-4, 220 and set a franchise record with a 94-yard return against the Giants. Now Tarvaris Jackson rests his strain pectoral and the coaches try to figure out if they're going forward with Clipboard Jesus.

25. Kansas City (2-3): Two game winning streak against two previously winless teams. Not that impressive, but Matt Cassel is on fire. So much easier for a QB to look good when he doesn't have those annoying running backs always asking for the ball. They're on their bye week, not that anyone will notice or care.

26. Cleveland (2-2): They had a week off to get their stuff together, but sounds like there is still dissension between Peyton Hillis and his teammates. No, I don't think this ranking is too low for them. Win at Oakland if you're unhappy.

27. Denver (1-4): I'm rooting for Tim Tebow to go 0-for-90 in the next three games with 40 interceptions, 20 fumbles and 30 sacks. Not because of any ill will I bear him, but rather because I'm morbidly curious how far Skip Bayless could stretch reality to make excuses for him. I'd have to defenestrate my television if Tebow can actually play.

28. Arizona (1-4):
Way to show up on the road, gang. Kevin Kolb is a total spaz in the pocket. Darrell Dockett continues to be one of the most overrated players in the league. Rookie Patrick Peterson, a corner, looks like a safety. Safety Kerry Rhodes has broken his foot. Good times.

29. Jacksonville (1-4):
I can't think about them for more than ten seconds without getting sleepy. Or maybe it's because it's 6:08 a.m. and I haven't slept. Have fun in Pittsburgh, Blaine.

30. Indianapolis (0-5): Finding new and creative ways to lose every week. You'd think they'd stop trying one of these weeks. Blah game at Cincinnati.

31. Miami (0-4):
Well, they haven't been embarrassed yet. As long as they run the ball and keep punting it, they should be in the game with the Jets.

32. St. Louis (0-4):
Dead last in scoring at 11.5 points per game. That's bad. 31st in points allowed at 28.3 per game. That's also bad. Their next three games: at Green Bay, at Dallas, vs. New Orleans. That's bad, bad, and bad. In conclusion: They're bad.

Monday, October 10, 2011

49ers Throttle Bucs But Needlessly Lose WR Morgan

SAN FRANCISCO -- 49ers Coach Jim Harbaugh was wrong three times on Sunday afternoon.

1) He went for it on 4th-and-2 from Tampa Bay's 20-yard-line with four minutes to go and a 41-3 lead, instead of kicking the field goal. In fact, he didn't just go for it; he called a pass.

2) After the game he speculated that receiver Joshua Morgan's injury wasn't too serious, even though Morgan's left foot was badly twisted underneath him in similar fashion to the injury that befell San Francisco Giants star catcher Buster Posey on May 25th and ended his year. Morgan needed assistance from teammates to get off the field and was helped onto a cart. A couple hours later CSN Bay Area reported that Morgan fractured his ankle, which likely means he'll be out for the season.

3) In the otherwise cheery postgame presser, Harbaugh gave a reporter (okay, me) some guff for mispronouncing Ricky Jean Francois' name during a question. "It's Ricky Gene, get the pronunciation right," he chided. One would think the "Francois" part would be a dead giveaway of the French roots of his nose tackle's surname, but nonetheless, I went to the Jean Francois himself in the locker room who assured me it is in fact pronounced Zhahn-Frahnswah, not Jeen-Frahnswah.

Whatever. Harbaugh's a football coach, not a linguistics professor. I don't care if he calls Jean Francois "Ndamukong Suh," really. It's his room. And it's hardly the first time he's been condescending to the media when the facts were clearly not on his side. As fans and colleagues have told me ad nauseam, as long as the team is winning, nobody will ever care how Harbaugh acts or speaks.

However, while mistake No. 3 was trivial for Harbaugh the first two certainly weren't, and it casts a pall on an otherwise perfect 56 minutes for the coach, where he made, I'm sure, literally hundreds of correct decisions in guiding his team to a remarkable, stunning, merciless 48-3 win over previously 3-1 Tampa Bay.

Let's focus on the good stuff first.

The Buccaneers came into the game no doubt filled with confidence. Their coach, Raheem Morris, referred to his team as "The West Coast Killers" based on their wins at Arizona and against these very same (well mostly same) Niners last season. He boasted about his squad's confidence on the road playing in hostile environments. The Bucs had won 9 of their previous 12 away games. In last year's meeting with the 49ers, San Francisco came into the game with a two-game winning streak, just like this season. Tampa Bay whupped them up and down the field, winning easily 21-0 and handed the Niners their first shutout at home since 1977. The Bucs defense had six sacks of starting QB Troy Smith that day and hounded him into a 51.5 passer rating, while their guy Josh Freeman had two touchdown passes, no interceptions and a 117.9 QB rating.

However, not everything was hunky dory with the 2011 Bucs, even though they'd won their past three games. For one thing, the schedule was stacked against them. They had to play on Monday night this week and then fly cross-country to face the 49ers, so they didn't have too much time to recover or prepare. Also, Freeman hasn't been the same guy so far this year. Last year he was sensational, with 25 touchdowns, just six interceptions, and a 95.9 rating as a second-year starter. He came into this game with three touchdowns, four interceptions and a 81.1 rating.

As the game unfolded, it because quickly apparent that 49ers QB Alex Smith (11-of-19, three touchdowns, no picks, 127.2 rating) is not very similar at all to Troy Smith except for their shared last name. Smith sliced and diced through the Bucs on the opening possession and hit tight end Delanie Walker on a perfect pass in between three defenders to make it 7-0.

Freeman, meanwhile was very similar to the guy he's been throughout the first four weeks of this season (minus the fourth quarter heroics this time), rather than the one who starred last year. He threw two early picks; one that was returned 31 yards by Carlos Rogers for a touchdown to make it 14-3 and another to rookie Chris Culliver that led to another score to make it 21-3 and the rout was on.

Smith, who didn't have to do much on this day, only showed off one other time. He was red hot to open the third quarter too, hitting Michael Crabtree on a slant on 3rd-and-14 for 15 yards, then Morgan on a bubble screen for a 24-yard catch-and-run and then Vernon Davis over the middle for 23 and a touchdown to make it 31-3.

Mostly though, the 49ers ran and ran and ran it some more. They ran shotgun draws that surprised the Bucs and from jumbo formations with six linemen (right guard Adam Snyder was lining up at fullback) and three tight ends that didn't. It really didn't matter if Tampa Bay knew it was coming or not, particularly after they lost defensive tackle Gerald McCoy to an ankle injury late in the first quarter. The more lopsided the score got, the less resistance the Buccaneers offered.

Frank Gore (20 carries for 125 yards) found wide running lanes between the tackles the first three quarters, and then rookie Kendall Hunter ran a series of student body sweeps and tosses left and right for 65 more yards of his own on nine carries. All in all, the 49ers had a season-high 213 rushing yards, with their backs often not getting touched until they were 10 or 15 yards down field.

The domination of their offensive line didn't just extend to the run game however. Smith wasn't sacked once all game and I can't even remember him being hit. Everyone up front did a great job, but tackles Joe Staley and Anthony Davis in particular deserve kudos for their work.

Defensively there wasn't much to quibble with either. Harbaugh noted how quickly his secondary reacted to the ball, how they read routes and how they got their hands on so many passes. Culliver, the third-round pick with prototypical size and speed but only three games of cornerback experience in the SEC, looked like the real deal and Rogers put the kibosh on his butterfingers reputation with an interception in his third successive game. He never had more than two in any of his previous six seasons in Washington. Also, free safety Dashon Goldson laid out Bucs receiver Mike Williams with a ferocious hit in the third quarter, causing a fumble. It was the first time all season that both starting safeties -- Goldson and Donte Whitner -- played at the same time, and the results speak for themselves.

The front seven stuffed LeGarrette Blount (10 carries for 34 yards) even without starting nose tackle Isaac Sopoaga, who missed the game with a staph infection. Jean Francois was superb in relief and the 49ers extended their streak of not allowing a 100-yard rusher to 27. They also had three sacks, pretty much all of the "coverage" variety, with first-round pick Aldon Smith collecting two of them. He now has 3.5 on the season, which leads the team and trails only Denver's Von Miller among rookies.

In short, the 49ers were the much better team in every facet a football game could be measured. They won all three phases, controlled the line of scrimmage and thoroughly out-coached and out-executed the road weary Bucs. Harbaugh and his assistants deserve all the credit in the world, not just for having the team absolutely prepared for this game, but also in a big-picture sense, as their fingerprints on the team are easy to see everywhere.

The 49ers, even without the benefit of mini-camps to install the new offensive and defensive schemes, look for all the world like runaway division champs and one of the seven or eight best teams in football. It's taken virtually no time at all for Harbaugh to change the culture of the locker room and to turn Smith into not just a serviceable quarterback, but a good one. Again, they deserve full credit for that.

However, two things can be equally true, and the facts remain Harbaugh totally screwed up the end game.

He tried to run up the score, because it's what he does. It was the same way at Stanford, when he went for two with a billion point lead against USC late in the game, prompting then-Trojan coach Pete Carroll to ask him "What's your deal?"

As Harbaugh said in last Monday's presser, he's "moody and complicated." Part of this complication extends to being a bully when he knows the other team has given up and quit. He doesn't know how to win gracefully and he feigns surprise when people ask him why he enjoys stepping on the opponent's throat and twisting his heel.

"You've got to play," he said. "You can’t take a knee with four minutes left in the game. It could have been a run. Josh was competing; I think he's going to be okay. [QB Colin] Kaepernick is competing; he's got to get to work. We're not taking a knee with four minutes left in the game."

Nobody was asking you to take a knee, coach, and I understand that Kaepernick needs "work" though I'd question the value of that work in a 41-3 game against a defeated team. But that's what downs 1-3 are for. On 4th-and-3 it's just good form to kick the damn ball.

The thing about Harbaugh is that unlike previous 49ers coaches, he's repeatedly demonstrated that he's capable of learning, even though he'd never admit, ever, that he made a mistake in the first place.

The media suggested that mayhaps right guard Chilo Rachal wasn't playing too well? Harbaugh insisted that he was, then benched him in favor of Adam Snyder, who's been tremendous.

Some of us wondered why Kendall Hunter wasn't playing when Gore was struggling early, and voila, Hunter has gotten a lot of work the past three weeks and prospered.

Harbaugh was questioned why he kept a field goal on the scoreboard in a loss to Dallas instead of taking the penalty and accepting what would've been a 1st-and-10 at the 22-yard line in the fourth quarter.

Against the Bucs he gleefully pulled an Akers field goal off the board and accepted a Tampa Bay penalty early in the fourth quarter and then had Smith throw in the end zone to Davis to make it 41-3.

So rest assured that when the grave results do come in on poor Morgan, that Harbaugh won't admit he erred, when his efforts to impress the AP Poll or whatever he was attempting to do cost him one of his best receivers and most popular players inside the locker room. I'm guessing the next time the 49ers are administrating or receiving a whipping, he'll be more conservative and that the explanation he'll offer for his change of heart will bend the truth severely, similar to the way Morgan bent his ankle.

Morgan got needlessly hurt last year too at Kansas City, when Mike Singletary called a pass on the final play with the 49ers trailing 31-3. Morgan scored a cosmetic touchdown to make it 31-10 at the gun and Singletary sent his message -- that he's a terrible coach who could care less about his players' safety.

Maybe next time a 49ers coach calls a pass play in a blowout, Morgan will just fall down.