Saturday, January 21, 2012

Giants-49ers NFC Title Game Preview

Lets dispense with all the flowery intros and the honeyed words of praise and get right to the meat-and-potatoes.

The 49ers run offense against the Giants run defense: The Giants had a pedestrian run defense during the regular season, finishing 19th in both yards allowed and in FootballOutsiders.com’s DVOA metric. They allowed 4.5 yards-per-carry, which was 23rd, and only six clubs gave up more than the 15 rushing touchdowns they allowed. It’s been more of the same in the playoffs. They allowed only 64 rushing yards (and just 3.0 yards-per-carry) against Atlanta, but then 147 and 6.4 yards-per-carry to Green Bay. Obviously those numbers were skewed by Aaron Rodgers’ scrambles (seven carries for 64 yards), but Ryan Grant and James Starks, two ordinary backs, combined for 14 carries and 74 yards of their own.

There were extenuating circumstances for the Giants inconsistent performances. They had a lot of injuries at linebacker and along the defensive line during the regular season, and against Green Bay they were more preoccupied with stopping the pass, so they were willing to concede some yardage to the backs. The performance that stands out is their game against Atlanta, particularly how they stopped the Falcons in short-yardage situations. Also, they did a fine job against the 49ers in their regular season meeting, but Frank Gore was dinged up in that game and the Giants went to great lengths (to their great detriment as it turned out) to stop run, committing eight or nine defenders into the box.

I don’t expect the Giants to be as emphatic in stopping Gore and Kendall Hunter this time around, but with a healthier starting lineup, they won’t have to be. Both of the 49ers runners are built to slide through small cracks, and if the 49ers stay with the run they should have some success, particularly in wet, sloppy weather. The real secret weapon to watch though will be Alex Smith. He’s not quite as instinctive of a runner as Rodgers is, but he showed last week against the Saints that he can scoot pretty fast when he gets to top gear. The Giants only rush four and like to drop seven into coverage, so there will be lanes for Smith to take off up the gut as the pocket collapses around him. It really wouldn’t surprise me to see Smith run for 40-50 yards in the game and to pick up a couple of crucial first downs doing so.

The 49ers pass offense against the Giants pass defense:
Contrary to popular perception, the 49ers were a more efficient passing offense (12th) than rushing offense (24th), at least according to Football Outsiders. Obviously they weren’t as prolific as the Green Bays, New Orleanses and New Englands of the world, but they hardly ever turned it over and Smith’s yards-per-attempt number wasn’t too shabby. The best explanation for that is the effectiveness of the 49ers play-action game, where they get defenses to consistently bite on their run fakes because people respect them as a running team.

Corey Webster is one of the better corners in the league, but there’s a wide gap between him and the team’s other corners. Prince Amukamara has potential, but he’s a rookie. Aaron Ross thinks he’s far better than he actually is. Will Blackmon and Michael Coe are ordinary. As with most teams (and certainly the 49ers) the Giants secondary plays much better when they’re getting a steady pass rush. If people have time to pass, these guys have gotten carved up. The Giants have had a number of season-ending injuries in their secondary, particularly at safety and have had to make do with people like Deon Grant back there.

It’s very unlikely that Vernon Davis will be rampaging through the Giants defensive backfield with only a lone defender on him, as was the case against New Orleans. He’ll see plenty of coverage. Webster will do his best to eliminate Crabtree, who was quiet last week and also against the Giants in the first go around.

With Ted Ginn (knee) sidelined and Braylon Edwards no longer on the roster, the 49ers will need a couple of unsung heroes to move the ball consistently against New York. The best candidate is Kyle Williams, who’s a quick guy with good hands, and backup tight end Delanie Walker, who’s been out since fracturing his jaw on Dec. 24. Walker has practiced all week (albeit on a limited basis) and he presents the biggest mismatch against the Giants, who only have one linebacker – Michael Boley – who’s decent in coverage. Walker had a season-high six receptions against them in the first meeting, and he’s a versatile guy who can line up in a number of spots along the formation to confuse the defense. He’s improved his run blocking this season, so there won’t be any tendencies for the Giants to key on, and he can really take advantage in those aforementioned play-action passes.

Of course, the real key to the passing game will be in the trenches. The Giants were tied-for-third in the league with 48 sacks, while only six teams gave up more than the 44 the 49ers allowed. New York’s total is even more impressive considering that they’re not a big blitzing team and that ends Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck, who are both healthy now, weren’t so for much of the year. Smith has taken plenty of sacks against opposing blitzes, but he’s been very effective throwing against them too, to the tune of a 96.8 passer rating, third in the NFL.

The 49ers have been generally good at home in pass blocking, allowing 13 sacks in eight games, and 10 of those came in two games. The Giants only got two on them in the previous game, and I think Jim Harbaugh and Co. would gladly settle for that number if it was offered to him before the game (as long as he was promised there’d be no injuries or fumbles). Again, the Giants generally rush four, but that forces opposing quarterbacks to hold onto the ball longer in search of open receivers. They also rotate their linemen throughout the game, attacking the offensive line with wave after wave of talented pass rushers. Anthony Davis on the right side in particular will have his hands full with Jason Pierre-Paul, an Aldon Smith clone who had 16.5 sacks during the year, and Umenyiora, who had two sacks and a forced fumble of Rodgers last week.


The 49ers run defense against the Giants run offense:
I won’t waste your time too much with this one. No one outside of the Seattle Seahawks late in the season has been able to run the ball all that well against the 49ers, and Patrick Willis missed that game with a strained hamstring. He’s back healthy now, and with tag-team partner NaVorro Bowman alongside of him, hard-hitting safeties Donte Whitner and Dashon Goldson, and interior linemen Justin Smith, Ray McDonald and Isaac Sopoaga all helping out, it’s unlikely to see the Giants being too productive on the ground against the 49ers, even with Ahmad Bradshaw back in the lineup. Sure, Bradshaw is more explosive and laterally-quick than bruising back Brandon Jacobs, but the 49ers have shut down better backs than him this year. The Giants are running better now after finishing dead last in that department during the regular season, and they may well benefit from the mud and the slop at Candlestick Park, but overall it’s hard not to give the 49ers a decided edge when it comes to the running game.

The 49ers pass defense against the Giants pass offense:
This is the area that I believe will decide the game. The Niners simply can’t depend on getting turnovers to bail themselves out of bad situations. They can’t allow 435 passing yards again, like they did to the Saints last week. Really, they can’t even give up 302 yards, which is what Eli Manning and Co. got in the first game against them. It’s just going to be too unrealistic to ask the 49ers offense to prevail in a shootout in back-to-back games.

On one hand, covering the Giants receivers should easier than last week’s opponent, where checking Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles was mission impossible. Instead, the Giants will have Jake Ballard at tight end, who’s a big guy with good hands but not someone who’s going to outrun Willis, and Bradshaw and Danny Ware as their best pass-catching weapons out of the backfield. They’re pretty slick, but they’re not Sproles. Backup tight end Travis Beckum is an athletic guy and it’ll be interesting to see how he’s used in the game plan.

On the other hand, while the Saints only had one top wideout in Marques Colston, the Giants present three, with Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham. Nicks has had a monster playoffs so far, with 13 receptions for 280 yards and four touchdowns the past two weeks. He’s a big guy who runs better than you’d think and is tremendous at shedding tackles. Manningham is more of a possession receiver who has been slowed by injury, but he too has deceptive speed. Cruz is most comfortable in the slot, but he’s their top playmaker, setting a franchise record with 1,536 receiving yards this year, which was third-best in the league.

In nickel situations the guess would be that Carlos Rogers will be responsible for Cruz one-on-one, while Goldson and Whitner will each help double-team Nicks and Manningham on the outside. Perhaps one of the safeties will sometimes double Cruz and single Manningham and vice-versa. Nicks is the guy who always needs to have two defensive backs on him though, and Willis and Bowman must be trusted to win their individual match-ups against the tight ends and the running backs.
Manning burned the 49ers on the few occasions they dared to blitz, so expect a lot of the standard four-man rush from San Francisco. Giants left tackle David Diehl hasn’t had his best season, so rookie Aldon Smith may well have an advantage there, though he’ll likely be chipped by a tight end or a back. Against the quick-passing Manning, as was the case with Brees, the crucial thing will be to disrupt his timing and get him off his spot, which means getting a strong rush up the gut. Justin Smith will face-off against Giants left guard Kevin Boothe, who allowed only one sack all season.
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Ultimately, I like the 49ers to pull this one out 23-17 even if many of the match-ups aren’t in their favor. I think the Giants played an absolute “A+” game for them last week at Green Bay, and it’s just too difficult, in any sport, for a team to duplicate that kind of performance in consecutive road playoff games. I think the 49ers are built to be a “mudder” team, that the weather will suit them, and that they play with far more confidence on both sides of the ball at home than they do on the road. All the usual things will come into play: Turnovers, third downs and the red zone, but the 49ers have been less mistake prone than their foes at home all season. They’re going to play their game, not make mistakes, and make people beat them the hard way, with long drives.

I’m looking for the defense to rebound after an average-at-best game last week. Having faced Brees was good practice for the secondary and the pass rush, and it will be less jarring to face another elite quarterback the next week. Offensively they’ll put a couple of drives together, take advantage of good field position when they get it, and look absolutely horrid at times before punting it away. In the end Smith will connect with Davis, Walker, and maybe even Hunter, on some big plays and create a couple more with his legs. Akers is good for at least three field goals.

In a fitting ending, the Giants will have the ball down six and at midfield for one last Manning Hail Mary attempt. “Where have I seen this before?” Harbaugh will ask himself, but Rogers will knock the ball out of bounds and the 49ers will be Super Bowl bound.