Showing posts with label Carlos Rogers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Carlos Rogers. Show all posts

Friday, November 4, 2011

Who Wants To Play This Game? Noooo-body

Sunday's game between your local gridironers and the woebegone Washington Redskins at FedExField will be one of those unique sporting affairs that will feature two ticked-off head coaches who'd rather be elsewhere.

For just about any football aficionado Washington head whistle Mike Shanahan's discontent is easy enough to figure. He knows he's bringing a butter knife into a gunfight. His best running back (Tim Hightower) and tight end (Chris Cooley) are lost for the year and his top wide out (Santana Moss) will also be unavailable. Backup tight end Fred Davis is iffy with a wobbly ankle, as is left tackle Trent Williams, who's missed the past two games. Even safety O.J. Atogwe (Mike Singletary's son-in-law) is a long shot to play. We haven't even discussed their quarterback situation yet.

The Redskins have lost three in a row and four of five. Shanahan suffered the first shutout loss of his storied career last week at Buffalo and quarterback John Beck, who is winless in eight career appearances -- five starts -- was sacked a whopping 10 times by a Bills team that came into the game with four quarterback take-downs total in six games. I dare say that your Niners have a wee bit better defense than Buffalo, even without injured defensive end Ray McDonald, but allow for the possibility that playing in Toronto gave the Bills some as of yet unidentified superpowers. Still, barring a few turnovers or some special teams shenanigans (or, if you prefer, "Shanahanigans") it will be tough for the Redskins to have more points than 49ers whirling wunderkind Aldon Smith will have sacks. Call it -2.5 in favor of Washington's offense.

Meanwhile Jim Harbaugh has no fear of the Redskins per se, no more than any other foe in the Freddie P. Soft phylum of your weekly power poll, but if had his druthers the 49ers would rather be playing this game on Nov. 20, four days before their other Maryland tilt against the Baltimore Ravens on Thanksgiving. The Niners fought the league's scheduling committee long and hard about the unfairness of having to fly cross-country to crab cake county twice in 20 days, but were met with the usual unsympathetic shrugs they've come to expect from the league ever since the Yorks over ownership from the disgraced Eddie D. Let's be real about it -- there are janitors in that building that Commish Goodell respects more than plucky youngster Jed York, so expect the 49ers to be boned by the schedule fairy for a bit longer until they become established contenders again.

Still, if you have to fly all the way out there you might as well win, so in that sense a trip to the nation's capitol should be perfectly pleasant for your 49ers. The 'skins are their fifth straight foe that is far more accommodating to opposing runners than they are to passers, and as you're no doubt aware that's a hanging slider right into the wheelhouse of a Jim Harbaugh Greg Roman Geep Chryst Mike Solari Tim Drevno Tom Rathman Isaac Sopoaga offense that will be looking to give the ball to Frank Gore early and often as he seeks to extend his streak of 125-yard rushing performances to five.

Also, for someone like Harbaugh who's so attuned to the pulse of his team, one would think that this would be the week he'll look to get Vernon Davis some touches, considering that it's a homecoming game for Davis, who's from the D.C. area. Ol' Vern contributed to the nation's economy by purchasing 90 or so tickets for friends and family and presumably it wasn't so they could watch him block Ryan Kerrigan all afternoon. Davis tried hard to be unquotable as possible with us ink-stained wretches on Thursday, but it was still pretty clear that he measures his self-worth in catches and touchdowns rather than seal blocks and double-teams drawn. Some appeasement is in order.

The game will present another reunion of sorts for 49ers corner Carlos Rogers, whose departure after six up-and-down seasons in Washington drew some interesting comments from Shanahan and former teammates. Rogers, who has stated ad nauseum that he did not enjoy his last few seasons as a Redskin and that he wanted out two years ago, was mocked by Fred Davis and DeAngelo Hall for his poor hands and ripped by Shanahan for "inconsistent" play. While the Washington coach was totally complimentary of Rogers to the San Francisco media, he told his local beat writers that if he felt that Rogers merited a long-term contract that he'd still be a Redskin. Rogers already has three interceptions for San Francisco after never having more than two in any season for Washington, and he'll no doubt be looking to make a point to his bronzed former boss.

Beyond all that there really aren't many story angles to discuss. The 49ers haven't strung two halves together on offense in any of their road games, but 30 minutes of competent football should more than suffice against a punchless Washington outfit. Harbaugh will be looking to get out of there quick and painless and Shanahan will probably be more preoccupied with scouting reports on Landry Jones and Matt Barkley than he will with the game plan. Nothing interesting ever happens in Washington and there's no reason to expect that to change on Sunday.

Week 8 Picks:

San Francisco at Washington (+4):
As near as I can figure, the Redskins have nothing going for them aside from being home, and even that may be a drawback as their fans figure to let them have it if things get ugly early. Fortunately for them, the Niners have a gnarly habit of playing only one half of football per game on offense and back-to-back shutouts are fairly rare in the NFL, so this should be a close one. 49ers 23, Redskins 16

Atlanta at Indianapolis (+8):
The Colts insist that they're trying and they will continue to. Doesn't that make this whole saga even sadder? Also, Atlanta gets Julio Jones back, just to make this match-up even more lopsided. Falcons 30, Colts 13 **FOUR POINT PICK**

New York Jets at Buffalo (-2):
I'd love to pay more attention to this one live, but those damn Niners will selfishly monopolize my attention once more. What I like about the game is that we'll be forced to take the winner seriously while the loser won't suffer too badly. Kinda gives me a warm feeling as I dislike neither team. Jets 20, Bills 17

Seattle at Dallas (-12):
Ugh. The only way this game gets my attention is if the Seahawks are up 10 in the fourth quarter. The sight of a smiling Tony Romo gives me gas. Cowboys 34, Seahawks 14

Miami at Kansas City (-5):
Seems like a low line but A) the Chiefs have a short week B) the Dolphins play close games and C) Kansas City was secretly kind of terrible against the Chargers. Still, how many narrow losses in a row can Miami have? At some point they'll either win or lose big, right? Chiefs 26, Dolphins 9

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-9):
Vegas has caught on to the Jekyll & Hide nature of these two teams with their home/road splits, so this line makes pretty good sense, as the quarterbacks have been turnover machines on the road. (Or, in Josh Freeman's case, at "home" in England.) Drew Brees needs the running game to take a bit of pressure on him to sell the play-action and to give pass rushers something to think about. I think nine points is too much for a division rivarly game. Saints 30, Buccaneers 23

Cleveland at Houston (-11):
I admit the Browns have a low-watt offense and the Texans have been locking people up the last couple of weeks, but Cleveland plays too good on defense in their own right to lay 11. I think Colt McCoy will play fairly well in what amounts to a homecoming for him. Texans 23, Browns 17

Cincinnati at Tennessee (-3):
I'm kind of shocked the Titans are favored in this one. If the Bengals can win at Seattle, why not Tennessee? Don't be fooled by the Titans record. They've beaten nobody, save for a Week 2 win over a Baltimore team that was still euphoric over the beatdown they handed Pittsburgh the week before. Easy upset pick (which means it's doomed). Bengals 26, Titans 17 **SIX POINT PICK**

Denver at Oakland (-9):
I don't care if Tim Tebow is the worse than Babe Laufenberg, I'm laying nine with the carcass of Carson Palmer playing for Oakland. Also, there's a good chance Darren McFadden will be out. Turnovers will be the only way either team can score. Raiders 16, Broncos 13

New York Giants at New England (-9):
Patriots fans will be at full boil against the team that robbed them of a perfect season. The Giants are actually the more complete team, thanks to their ferocious pass rush and I was this close to picking them in an upset, but with Ahmad Bradshaw highly unlikely to play with a cracked bone in his foot, I just can't do it. Still, if Eli Manning just drops back to pass every play, I like that match-up against the Patriots secondary (assuming Hakeem Nicks plays). Should be a wild one. Patriots 27, Giants 24

St. Louis at Arizona (-2):
Sam Bradford is probably gonna play for St. Louis and John Skelton will start for Arizona. It doesn't seem possible that Skelton could be any worse than Kevin Kolb, but until proven otherwise, I have to assume he will be. Rams 23, Cardinals 16 **EIGHT POINT PICK**

Green Bay at San Diego (+6):
A interception-prone quarterback facing guys like Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams and Sam Shields? This sounds fairly simple. And if I'm wrong, I'll hardly cry about a Packers loss. Packers 34, Chargers 20 **TEN POINT PICK**

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-4):
The Steelers are a lot hotter but the Ravens are much healthier. I'm gonna go with the team that doesn't have Joe Flacco playing in prime time on the road. We might see a couple loud pops in this one. Steelers 24, Ravens 17

Chicago at Philadelphia (-8):
I think the birds have found themselves and I'm pretty excited about the match-up of the Eagles defensive line against the Bears big uglies. I'm not as excited about Matt Forte against Philly's linebackers and safeties. Oh well. Eagles 30, Bears 20

Last week's W-L: 8-5
Season W-L: 73-43
Week 8 Vs. Spread: 5-7-1
Season Vs. Spread: 44-65-7
Week 8 +/- Points (All games count as one point unless specified): -2
Season +/- Points: -28

I forgot to do extra point picks last week (just as well) so I'll double them up this week, Berman-style. Good luck!

Monday, October 17, 2011

Why the 49ers Won, A Little Love For Their Unsong Hero, and Thoughts About Harbaugh's Emotions

You look at the 49ers 25-19 triumph of the previously undefeated Detroit Lions at Ford Field and the cliché sportswriter thing to do would be to wax poetic on redemption.

Alex Smith played his worst game of the season and threw what could’ve been the game-changing interception, but came back to throw the kind of clutch touchdown pass at the end that he never could these past six seasons.

Delanie Walker dropped a touchdown when he was wide open in the third quarter, but then ran the kind of slant route that Jerry Rice would’ve admired on that fateful 4th-and-goal from the 6-yard-line and was powerful enough to drag a tackler into the end zone.

Rookie Aldon Smith had an easy interception clank off his shoulder pad, but then came back to sack Detroit’s Matthew Stafford into an 18-yard loss that ruin a Lions drive and set up Walker’s go-ahead score.

Even the much-criticized Chilo Rachal, who’d been benched the past 2 ½ games, checked into the game in the fourth quarter for injured starter Adam Snyder and more than held his own against the Lions Ndamukong Suh, who’d been hyped up as football’s answer to Clubber Lang and Ivan Drago.

All of that is well and true. Those guys had their low points earlier in the game and reached exhilarating heights at the end. But all that nonsense overshadows the real nuts-and-bolts story of the game – Jim Harbaugh’s over-caffeinated postgame handshake and slap on the back with Lions head-whistle Jim Schwartz.

Kidding. Just kidding. Such an overblown total-nothing of a story. It’s all ESPN cares about – because apparently fellows like Frank Gore, NaVorro Bowman and Aldon Smith aren’t compelling enough to write stories on – so they’re driving the cattle call for the editors of the local writers to care about the story too. Frankly, the whole thing is embarrassing and makes me question why I’m in the business.

(And then I remember that I don’t like working for a living.)

No, here’s the story: The 49ers are, unquestionably, better than the Detroit Lions, and thus, by the transitive property, this makes them one of the five or six best teams in the league and a legitimate contender. There’s no need to qualify it or say “maybe if this happens” or “if the ball bounces that way,” or anything like that. Right now, what they have on their roster and on their coaching staff is good enough to play deep into January. I’ve seen enough and I’ve become a believer.

Consider all that the 49ers had going against them on Sunday. First off, they were on the road, which had not been kind to them in the past decade. Secondly, they were playing a team that hadn’t lost at home in nearly a calendar year. They were without Joshua Morgan, who was lost for the season last week and also missing Braylon Edwards, who’s still on the mend, leaving the mercurial (another sportswriter cliché alert) Michael Crabtree as their only decent receiver. Of the 11 primary defenders they would be using the game, eight were different than the primary 11 they fielded last season.

Still, on a day when Alex was only their third-best Smith, when the team was a -2 in the turnover department – a road team winning in such a case is about as rare as a Halley’s comet sighting – and the fellas misbehaved to the tune of 15 penalties for 120 yards, the 49ers still found a way to prevail because they had better players, better coaching and more composure at the end.

Past 49ers teams would’ve fallen apart down 10-0 early on the road and the game would’ve turned into a disaster. This one never led the Lions get out of shouting distance, even in the ear-splitting din of their dome. The coaching staff wisely game-planned to use the over-aggressiveness of the Lions front four against them, the way karate senseis teach their pupils to do. Detroit uses the same “wide-nine” front that the Philadelphia Eagles do, lining their ends up exaggeratedly wide and putting them in sprinter stances to explode off the ball and go hell-bent after the quarterback. These guys do not care one whit about stopping the run. As a consequence, that leaves the two defensive tackles with four gaps to cover, the two between the guards and the tackles and the two between the center and guards. And those guys aren’t reading and reacting either. They want to get sacks too, so they’re also picking a gap and exploding through it. When they guess right, they stuff the run on their way to the quarterback. When they guess wrong… well then guys like Frank Gore (15 carries, 141 yards) start getting smaller and smaller as they run off into the distance.

Even in the passing game, the coaches schemed well enough to get Crabtree open quite a bit (whether Smith actually threw it within Crab’s zip code or not was a different story) and to get Walker wide open in the end zone in the third quarter and on the game’s biggest play, where Walker’s slant was helped along by a sneaky Crabtree pick. That the 49ers didn’t do more damage in the passing game was due to some misfires by the quarterback, some drops by the receivers and generally mistakes of San Francisco’s own making than anything the Lions did.

Defensively, the staff saw that Stafford gets rid of the ball too quickly, too often to make blitzing him worthwhile, and that most of Detroit’s big plays happened when their opponents brought pressure. So the Niners gambled… by not gambling. As Harbaugh noted during his Monday presser, the 49ers didn’t bring more than a four man rush on any of the Lions’ 78 plays from scrimmage. They just played their nickel defense pretty much the whole game, with two-man over help from the safeties (Donte Whitner and Dashon Goldson was each responsible for half the field) and let Bowman cover the back and Patrick Willis cover tight end Brandon Pettigrew.

Come to think of it, I think defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who said he’d never been associated in a better defensive effort than this one, according to Harbaugh, was giving us a bit of a snow-job during training camp when it came to Willis. Fangio said that Willis was better than he expected in virtually every facet but blitzing and that he would have to work on that skill. I filed that comment away at the time because I thought, "Huh, it’s odd he thinks a guy who had six sacks last year needs to work on his blitzing," when I always thought Willis’ biggest weakness was in pass coverage.

My theory is that Fangio intentionally threw us off track and actually got Willis to work on his coverage skills. Wills has hardly blitzed all year, but has been tremendous in coverage. Yesterday might be the best game I’ve ever seen from him in that regard. He made three or four plays on the ball in the red zone when he was clearly targeted, and even the one time Pettigrew scored a touchdown on him, it took a perfect throw, as Willis was practically in the tight end’s shirt. I think the Niners thinking all along was to give the Lions what looked like a mismatch with Pettigrew, all but daring them to throw to him, so they’d have less incentive to go to Calvin Johnson in the red zone. The Lions fell for it, hook, line and sinker.

Harbaugh and the coaches will get all the credit for this 5-1 start, but general manager Trent Baalke, who’s been mocked, derided and dismissed through much of his 49ers tenure, deserves a lot of praise himself. It’s been fashionable to look at the 2010 49ers as by-and-large the same team as the 2011 version, but there have been changes at virtually every position.

Carlos Rogers has been a godsend at cornerback, and center Jonathan Goodwin, safety Donte Whitner and kicker David Akers have also been clear upgrades as free agent additions. Perhaps Edwards will be too, when he gets on the field again. Meanwhile, in the draft he’s gotten immediate contributions from Kendell Hunter, Bruce Miller, Chris Culliver and Aldon Smith. Of the ten picks in the 49ers draft class, Hunter was probably the only one who got universal praise from the experts out there, but Baalke was ripped for just about all the others.

Aldon Smith certainly looks the part, but the fear about him was that he’d be another one of these guys that (cliché alert) looks like Tarzan and plays like Jane. How about “looks like Tarzan, plays like Tarzan after Jane cheated on him with the opposing quarterback?”

Culliver had prototypical size and speed, but only had three games worth of experience at corner in the SEC. He switched positions from safety as a senior at South Carolina and suffered a season-ending injury early in the season. Baalke didn’t care, and so far he looks like a genius. Culliver’s talent was easy to see during individual drills in training camp, and even back then it was apparent that if this kid could put the time in to be a pro, that he’d be a starter in this league for a long time. He didn’t “shut down” Megatron yesterday by any means, but he limited the damage, tackled well and didn’t allow the big play.

To draft Miller, who was a two-time Conference USA Defensive Player of the Year at UCF, and turn him into a fullback was thought of as ludicrous. Now, not so much. He’s been the starter the past three games, where the 49ers have totaled 580 rushing yards and Moran Norris may not be in the plans anymore.

Then you look at the way Bowman’s blossomed – he might very well be the 49ers MVP through six games – he was a 3rd round pick in 2010. You look at the progress Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis have made. Baalke saw the potential in Ray McDonald and gave him a five-year, $20 million contract and decided to let Aubrayo Franklin go. McDonald has been terrific so far as a full-time starter (I was way wrong on that one) and the run defense hasn’t missed a beat with Isaac Sopoaga at the nose.

However you want to view the win, the thing we have to put a stop to right now is this silly notion that Harbaugh is rallying the troops because of his emotion, his competitiveness, his sideline antics, etc. The players readily agree to lazy Hollywood premises like this because A) they think we’re idiots who’ll believe anything they tell us B) it amuses them that we so readily gobble up this tripe and C) it beats telling us the truth for why games are won and lost, which would get them into all kinds of trouble with all kinds of people.

In case you folks had electroshock therapy to expunge the Mike Singletary era from your memories, Harbaugh’s sideline behavior was EXACTLY the same kind of stuff the media at large ripped him for. We said Singletary didn’t deserve to be a coach because he was TOO EMOTIONAL, that he still thought of himself as a player, and that he wasn’t mature enough to lead a football team.
Now we’re giving Harbaugh praise for the exact same characteristics and behavior? Get out of here with that garbage.

Harbaugh is a much better football coach than Singletary because of the things he does to help prepare the team Monday-Saturday, because of the ways he can provide information of substance to his quarterbacks, and because instead of telling his team to run the ball better, he actually schemes a way for them to do so. Or maybe he was just prescient enough to hire a better staff around him. Either way, “Who’s got it better than us?” doesn’t mean a lick more than “Physical with an F.”

He’s a better football coach because he’s a better coach. How’s that for your cliché?

Monday, October 10, 2011

49ers Throttle Bucs But Needlessly Lose WR Morgan

SAN FRANCISCO -- 49ers Coach Jim Harbaugh was wrong three times on Sunday afternoon.

1) He went for it on 4th-and-2 from Tampa Bay's 20-yard-line with four minutes to go and a 41-3 lead, instead of kicking the field goal. In fact, he didn't just go for it; he called a pass.

2) After the game he speculated that receiver Joshua Morgan's injury wasn't too serious, even though Morgan's left foot was badly twisted underneath him in similar fashion to the injury that befell San Francisco Giants star catcher Buster Posey on May 25th and ended his year. Morgan needed assistance from teammates to get off the field and was helped onto a cart. A couple hours later CSN Bay Area reported that Morgan fractured his ankle, which likely means he'll be out for the season.

3) In the otherwise cheery postgame presser, Harbaugh gave a reporter (okay, me) some guff for mispronouncing Ricky Jean Francois' name during a question. "It's Ricky Gene, get the pronunciation right," he chided. One would think the "Francois" part would be a dead giveaway of the French roots of his nose tackle's surname, but nonetheless, I went to the Jean Francois himself in the locker room who assured me it is in fact pronounced Zhahn-Frahnswah, not Jeen-Frahnswah.

Whatever. Harbaugh's a football coach, not a linguistics professor. I don't care if he calls Jean Francois "Ndamukong Suh," really. It's his room. And it's hardly the first time he's been condescending to the media when the facts were clearly not on his side. As fans and colleagues have told me ad nauseam, as long as the team is winning, nobody will ever care how Harbaugh acts or speaks.

However, while mistake No. 3 was trivial for Harbaugh the first two certainly weren't, and it casts a pall on an otherwise perfect 56 minutes for the coach, where he made, I'm sure, literally hundreds of correct decisions in guiding his team to a remarkable, stunning, merciless 48-3 win over previously 3-1 Tampa Bay.

Let's focus on the good stuff first.

The Buccaneers came into the game no doubt filled with confidence. Their coach, Raheem Morris, referred to his team as "The West Coast Killers" based on their wins at Arizona and against these very same (well mostly same) Niners last season. He boasted about his squad's confidence on the road playing in hostile environments. The Bucs had won 9 of their previous 12 away games. In last year's meeting with the 49ers, San Francisco came into the game with a two-game winning streak, just like this season. Tampa Bay whupped them up and down the field, winning easily 21-0 and handed the Niners their first shutout at home since 1977. The Bucs defense had six sacks of starting QB Troy Smith that day and hounded him into a 51.5 passer rating, while their guy Josh Freeman had two touchdown passes, no interceptions and a 117.9 QB rating.

However, not everything was hunky dory with the 2011 Bucs, even though they'd won their past three games. For one thing, the schedule was stacked against them. They had to play on Monday night this week and then fly cross-country to face the 49ers, so they didn't have too much time to recover or prepare. Also, Freeman hasn't been the same guy so far this year. Last year he was sensational, with 25 touchdowns, just six interceptions, and a 95.9 rating as a second-year starter. He came into this game with three touchdowns, four interceptions and a 81.1 rating.

As the game unfolded, it because quickly apparent that 49ers QB Alex Smith (11-of-19, three touchdowns, no picks, 127.2 rating) is not very similar at all to Troy Smith except for their shared last name. Smith sliced and diced through the Bucs on the opening possession and hit tight end Delanie Walker on a perfect pass in between three defenders to make it 7-0.

Freeman, meanwhile was very similar to the guy he's been throughout the first four weeks of this season (minus the fourth quarter heroics this time), rather than the one who starred last year. He threw two early picks; one that was returned 31 yards by Carlos Rogers for a touchdown to make it 14-3 and another to rookie Chris Culliver that led to another score to make it 21-3 and the rout was on.

Smith, who didn't have to do much on this day, only showed off one other time. He was red hot to open the third quarter too, hitting Michael Crabtree on a slant on 3rd-and-14 for 15 yards, then Morgan on a bubble screen for a 24-yard catch-and-run and then Vernon Davis over the middle for 23 and a touchdown to make it 31-3.

Mostly though, the 49ers ran and ran and ran it some more. They ran shotgun draws that surprised the Bucs and from jumbo formations with six linemen (right guard Adam Snyder was lining up at fullback) and three tight ends that didn't. It really didn't matter if Tampa Bay knew it was coming or not, particularly after they lost defensive tackle Gerald McCoy to an ankle injury late in the first quarter. The more lopsided the score got, the less resistance the Buccaneers offered.

Frank Gore (20 carries for 125 yards) found wide running lanes between the tackles the first three quarters, and then rookie Kendall Hunter ran a series of student body sweeps and tosses left and right for 65 more yards of his own on nine carries. All in all, the 49ers had a season-high 213 rushing yards, with their backs often not getting touched until they were 10 or 15 yards down field.

The domination of their offensive line didn't just extend to the run game however. Smith wasn't sacked once all game and I can't even remember him being hit. Everyone up front did a great job, but tackles Joe Staley and Anthony Davis in particular deserve kudos for their work.

Defensively there wasn't much to quibble with either. Harbaugh noted how quickly his secondary reacted to the ball, how they read routes and how they got their hands on so many passes. Culliver, the third-round pick with prototypical size and speed but only three games of cornerback experience in the SEC, looked like the real deal and Rogers put the kibosh on his butterfingers reputation with an interception in his third successive game. He never had more than two in any of his previous six seasons in Washington. Also, free safety Dashon Goldson laid out Bucs receiver Mike Williams with a ferocious hit in the third quarter, causing a fumble. It was the first time all season that both starting safeties -- Goldson and Donte Whitner -- played at the same time, and the results speak for themselves.

The front seven stuffed LeGarrette Blount (10 carries for 34 yards) even without starting nose tackle Isaac Sopoaga, who missed the game with a staph infection. Jean Francois was superb in relief and the 49ers extended their streak of not allowing a 100-yard rusher to 27. They also had three sacks, pretty much all of the "coverage" variety, with first-round pick Aldon Smith collecting two of them. He now has 3.5 on the season, which leads the team and trails only Denver's Von Miller among rookies.

In short, the 49ers were the much better team in every facet a football game could be measured. They won all three phases, controlled the line of scrimmage and thoroughly out-coached and out-executed the road weary Bucs. Harbaugh and his assistants deserve all the credit in the world, not just for having the team absolutely prepared for this game, but also in a big-picture sense, as their fingerprints on the team are easy to see everywhere.

The 49ers, even without the benefit of mini-camps to install the new offensive and defensive schemes, look for all the world like runaway division champs and one of the seven or eight best teams in football. It's taken virtually no time at all for Harbaugh to change the culture of the locker room and to turn Smith into not just a serviceable quarterback, but a good one. Again, they deserve full credit for that.

However, two things can be equally true, and the facts remain Harbaugh totally screwed up the end game.

He tried to run up the score, because it's what he does. It was the same way at Stanford, when he went for two with a billion point lead against USC late in the game, prompting then-Trojan coach Pete Carroll to ask him "What's your deal?"

As Harbaugh said in last Monday's presser, he's "moody and complicated." Part of this complication extends to being a bully when he knows the other team has given up and quit. He doesn't know how to win gracefully and he feigns surprise when people ask him why he enjoys stepping on the opponent's throat and twisting his heel.

"You've got to play," he said. "You can’t take a knee with four minutes left in the game. It could have been a run. Josh was competing; I think he's going to be okay. [QB Colin] Kaepernick is competing; he's got to get to work. We're not taking a knee with four minutes left in the game."

Nobody was asking you to take a knee, coach, and I understand that Kaepernick needs "work" though I'd question the value of that work in a 41-3 game against a defeated team. But that's what downs 1-3 are for. On 4th-and-3 it's just good form to kick the damn ball.

The thing about Harbaugh is that unlike previous 49ers coaches, he's repeatedly demonstrated that he's capable of learning, even though he'd never admit, ever, that he made a mistake in the first place.

The media suggested that mayhaps right guard Chilo Rachal wasn't playing too well? Harbaugh insisted that he was, then benched him in favor of Adam Snyder, who's been tremendous.

Some of us wondered why Kendall Hunter wasn't playing when Gore was struggling early, and voila, Hunter has gotten a lot of work the past three weeks and prospered.

Harbaugh was questioned why he kept a field goal on the scoreboard in a loss to Dallas instead of taking the penalty and accepting what would've been a 1st-and-10 at the 22-yard line in the fourth quarter.

Against the Bucs he gleefully pulled an Akers field goal off the board and accepted a Tampa Bay penalty early in the fourth quarter and then had Smith throw in the end zone to Davis to make it 41-3.

So rest assured that when the grave results do come in on poor Morgan, that Harbaugh won't admit he erred, when his efforts to impress the AP Poll or whatever he was attempting to do cost him one of his best receivers and most popular players inside the locker room. I'm guessing the next time the 49ers are administrating or receiving a whipping, he'll be more conservative and that the explanation he'll offer for his change of heart will bend the truth severely, similar to the way Morgan bent his ankle.

Morgan got needlessly hurt last year too at Kansas City, when Mike Singletary called a pass on the final play with the 49ers trailing 31-3. Morgan scored a cosmetic touchdown to make it 31-10 at the gun and Singletary sent his message -- that he's a terrible coach who could care less about his players' safety.

Maybe next time a 49ers coach calls a pass play in a blowout, Morgan will just fall down.

Monday, September 26, 2011

Defense, Smith, Rookie Backfield Key 49ers 13-8 Win at Cincinnati

Okay, so it wasn't exactly Montana-to-Taylor.

Still, for this fragile, rickety, scotch tape-and-paper clips 49ers offense, that 10-play, 72-yard touchdown march in the fourth quarter at Cincinnati's Paul Brown Stadium was a pretty big deal.

Not only did rookie Kendall Hunter's 7-yard scamper around left end give the visitors a lead they would not relinquish -- unlike last week, when they surrendered two separate double-digit leads to Dallas -- but it also allowed quarterback Alex Smith and his offensive mates to unburden themselves somewhat after they spent the better part of an afternoon being totally frustrated by an ordinary-at-best Bengals defense.

Let's start with Smith, as we always must.

The best thing that can be said about his first half is that he didn't turn it over. He underthrew Michael Crabtree twice, missed a couple of open receivers and took at least one sack due to indecisiveness. Generally speaking, he did nothing to absolve himself of blame from the goose egg on the 49ers end of the scoreboard.

However, he had by far his best second half of this young season, completing 11-of-13 passes for 127 yards and spreading the ball around. He was robbed of a third quarter touchdown pass to Crabtree by some horrid officiating and a lazy, incompetent FOX broadcast team that couldn't be bothered to give a damn.

Trailing 6-3 with 8:57 to go after a Frank Gore fumble cost them three points, Smith was 4-of-5 for 48 yards, with the last three completions going to Vernon Davis (8 receptions for 114 yards). Sprinkled in between those passes were stretch plays and tosses to the sparkplug Hunter, who got some meaningful playing time because Gore was either benched or hobbled by a second quarter ankle injury, whichever explanation suits you.

Gore did carry it once for four yards on 3rd-and-2 from the Cincinnati 31 on the drive, but was otherwise thoroughly stymied for the third straight afternoon, totaling 42 yards on 17 carries. You'll note the consistency of his 2.5 yards-per-carry average.

Overall it was the kind of game for Smith that might win him a couple of admirers in his locker room and some begrudging respect from a coach or two, but one that won't make a blip on the national consciousness. As far as the talking heads on the highlights go -- particularly the ex-players -- Smith's name is synonymous with a joke and two or three pretty passes to Davis aren't going to change that perception anytime soon. Neither will passing numbers after 60 minutes of work that typically resemble a good quarter for Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, et al.

While it's cliche for pundits to mention the revolving door of offensive coordinators and head coaches whenever they feel like making the obligatory excuse for Smith, what I find interesting that is that his supporting cast -- particularly that offensive line -- is hardly ever mentioned.

I mean good lord, when are people out there gonna wake up and realize that this offensive line is every bit the tire fire as the ones that get Jay Cutler and Michael Vick knocked around goofy week after week? At least those teams can run block somewhat. Gore has no holes. None. Or maybe he's just too slow to hit them these days. Hunter certainly had no problem cutting back and exploding through cracks on that fateful touchdown series.

The line got Smith sacked five times -- though he might have been responsible for two -- and committed six penalties as well. Right guard Chilo Rachal in particular was an abomination, with two sacks allowed, two holding penalties and a false start. He got benched in the second half for Adam Snyder, and one has to think that Jim Harbaugh is giving serious thought to making that switch permanent. Rachal has been definitively the worst lineman on the team for three years running now, which is a formidable accomplishment.

Looking at my notes, I have the least negative plays for left guard Mike Iupati, so I guess he wins the Best 49ers Offensive Lineman of the Game award, which is about as impressive as being the Best 49ers Fullback (nice debut for Bruce Miller with four grabs for 25 yards), the Best 49ers Free Safety or the Best NFC West Team Through Three Weeks. I've got it as Iupati, Jonathan Goodwin, Joe Staley, Adam Snyder, Anthony Davis and Rachal last. Your order may differ. Either way, we'd be arguing the aromatic and gastronomic semantics of various kinds of rotten fruit.

Also, it would be nice if just once somebody noticed that the receiving crew that Smith is working with isn't exactly the '99 St. Louis Rams. In fact, this bunch might rival Cleveland for the saddest wide out corps in the NFL. Braylon Edwards was supposed to change that, but he's hurt. Crabtree is maybe 70 percent at most and has had no training camp so he's rusty as hell. Smith has had to make do with Joshua Morgan, who is slow; and Ted Ginn, who is soft. Yes, the elite quarterbacks out there could make those guys look good. But if they had to work with these receivers and this offensive line? Well good luck to whoever wants to take that Pepsi Challenge.

Alright, enough whining on Smith's behalf. He certainly doesn't ask for my help and he could've left this place for greener pastures if he wanted to. After four thousand words I've spilled on what is charitably a mediocre offense, I suppose it's time to give credit to the fellas on the other side of the ball who were actually responsible for the win.

Obviously, having Dashon Goldson and Shawntae Spencer back in the secondary made a huge difference, and after a surprising opening drive for the Bengals, where rookie QB Andy Dalton sliced through them effortlessly, the defensive backs slammed the door the rest of the way, punctuated by late fourth quarter interceptions on consecutive series by Carlos Rogers and Reggie Smith.

Cincinnati only converted 1-of-10 third down conversions and for all intents and purposes the Niners held them to just that opening field goal for the whole game. The Bengals five other points came virtue of that Gore fumble early in the fourth quarter and from 49ers punter Andy Lee running backwards 18 yards to take a safety on purpose on the penultimate play of the game.

The run defense was stout as usual, holding Cedric Benson to just 64 yards to extend their league-leading streak of holding individual rushers below a hundred to 25 consecutive games. Surprisingly, the secondary was able to cover up Cincy's receivers without the benefit of a pass rush. Ahmad Brooks had one bone-rattling blindside sack of Dalton, but outside of that he was pressured but a handful of times and seldom hit.

Strong safety Donte Whitner suffered what he described after as a non-serious hip injury, but it impaired him enough to miss all but the opening series. Madieu Williams filled in admirably in his stead, as did C.J. Spillman and Smith, in spots. The odd man out was Tramaine Brock, whose nickel role was seized by Spencer, despite the fact that Brock had an interception in each of the past two games. That's a good call by the coaches, looking at the film and not the stat sheet. Spencer is a clear upgrade at that spot.

Rogers gets the game ball on defense from me, not only for his interception but also for making a touchdown-saving tackle of Benson on a run play after Gore's fumble. It forced the Bengals into a first-and-goal instead of a 10-3 lead and they stalled out three plays later. An honorable mention goes to linebacker NaVorro Bowman who was a tackle machine and has easily been the team's best linebacker through three games, despite having Patrick Willis as his partner inside. Spencer was solid in coverage and Goldson made his mark by laying the wood whenever he could. If only those two could've played last week, this team is probably 3-0.

It was an ugly game, but full credit to the Niners for being 2-for-2 in "must-wins" so far. For their efforts they're the sole leaders of the NFC West with a 2-1 record and they'll be in great shape if they can even one of their next three games on the sked (@Philadelphia, vs. Tampa Bay, @Detroit).

Monday, September 19, 2011

Harbaugh Channels Ghosts of Singetary, 49ers Lose In Overtime To Cowboys

SAN FRANCISCO -- It's not the most elegant way to begin a game story, but it's the 500-lb. pink gorilla in the room, so why prolong the agony? Jim Harbaugh's decision to take the 55-yard field goal (which David Akers booted so convincingly that it would've been good from 65) instead of accepting the 15-yard "leveraging" penalty on Dallas that would've given the 49ers a 1st-and-10 from the Cowboys 22-yard-line with a 21-14 lead and 11:12 left in the game was A) wrong B) asinine C) indefensible D) short-sighted E) telling and F) overblown.

It was not the reason the 49ers lost to the Cowboys 27-24 in overtime, though it's so convenient and easy to think that it was.

It was wrong because being up 24-14 with 11:12 to go is not as good as being up 24-14 with eight minutes and change to go, which is precisely the situation the 49ers would've been facing had they simply accepted the penalty and ran Frank Gore up the gut three straight times. Even if they don't gain an inch, it's a 39-yard field goal for Akers, a man who can split the uprights with bowel movements longer than 39 yards. It was an unusually hot day by Candlestick standards and the only wind was coming from the press box, so yes, I think Akers could be trusted to deliver there.

It was asinine because the team faced almost the exact same scenario last week, when Akers was roughed on a field goal. Then Harbaugh accepted the penalty, they ran three fruitless plays, they wasted two minutes of our lives and Akers kicked again. The decision worked, they won the game, so why fix something that wasn't broken? Alex Smith has referenced the Albert Einstein in the past about the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results, so how do we define the 49ers, who willfully deviate decisions that worked?

It was indefensible because the only scenario where that decision backfires is if you have a turnover on a running play or a string of holding calls to back them up from field goal range to San Jose. However, that kind of negative thinking doesn't jibe with the mentality of a team that got a 21-14 lead on the Cowboys in the first place. The three touchdown drives didn't materialize out of thin air. Ted Ginn didn't return three kicks to the house. Smith played well, made good decisions and threw the ball accurately to move the sticks. If you trusted him to do it for the first 48:48 of the game, then you should trust him for the final 11:12. That goes for every situation, from not committing holding penalties (they didn't), to Gore not fumbling (he didn't), to center Jonathan Goodwin not having any bad snaps (ditto). The same guys that got you the lead with were in the huddle, and they deserved the rope to hang themselves with.

It was short-sighted because even if they had won the game, Harbaugh's decision would've been a big neon sign Smith, to the offensive players and to the rest of the football watching world that read, "I DO NOT TRUST YOU." It simply does not bode well for future games. Why would the quarterback have confidence in himself if his coach doesn't? Why would the linemen? For that matter, why would the players trust each other or their coach? It's better to lose and show the players you have faith in them, even if you don't, than to win by hedging your bets and being openly petrified.

It was telling because a coach can hype up and praise and defend his players to the media all day long, but they're just words. Actions are more telling and Harbaugh sure made it appear as though he doesn't think he has much to work with. It's very simple, the way people view Harbaugh's decision. The ones who think it was wrong simply think that Smith is a mediocre starting quarterback. The ones who agree with Harbaugh (I'm not naming names but they're easy to find) view Smith along the lines of those Charlie Brown cartoons where he's pitching in little league and getting his clothes knocked off, with every one of his pitches producing line drive -- think Smith is so incompetent that he can't even be trusted to execute three hand-offs without something, anything, going wrong. They view every single positive play in his career as a residue of luck and all the negative ones as indicators of his true wretchedness.

It's worth noting just the fact that all our hypothetical scenarios deal with Smith just handing the ball three times goes to show how little our expectations are. It's simply unimaginable to contemplate Smith being allowed to throw from inside the 20-yard line with a fourth quarter lead. There's that little trust and faith in him, both from inside and outside the organization. The same people who are happy with Harbaugh's decision to take the points are the ones who wouldn't trust him to kneel down in properly at the end of a game without it going wrong.

However, given all of that, the decision was overblown because what lost the 49ers the game was the fact the same two units that led to most of their losses in the Mike Singletary era while Smith and the play-calling took the blame: the offensive line and the secondary.

Whatever adjustments the Cowboys made in the second half, the line was a nightmare. Smith was sacked on six of his 30 drop-backs, a ratio of 20 percent that's unspeakably awful. Gore was limited to 47 yards on 20 carries. On a line with three first-round picks, a high second-round pick and a two-time Pro Bowler at center, it's mind-boggling how they generate so little push, how they continue to get blown off the ball on snaps, and how often they let people through completely unblocked.

Harbaugh did everything he could to buy Smith time for his receivers. He kept six and seven guys in to block, including Vernon Davis on most plays (Davis was decidedly unhappy about it). He called as many running plays he could in the hopes of keeping Dallas pass-rushers honest. It didn't matter. The Cowboys snarling front seven simply assaulted Gore on their way to Smith. Without Michael Crabtree (inactive) or Braylon Edwards (out after two plays with a knee injury) Smith didn't have people who could get open consistently, as the Cowboys did a good job of guessing who the hot routes were going to be and making him go to the second option. By then Smith was on his back.

The only way Gore will have room to run is if defenses start respecting Smith, and the only way they'll start doing that is if he burns them repeatedly on blitzes. Having Crabtree and Edwards healthy would help, but what would help more is to actually pick up the blitzes in the first place and to fire off the ball once in a while on those runs. Mike Iupati in particular had a bad game but Anthony Davis, Chilo Rachal, Jonathan Goodwin and Joe Staley all had afternoons to forget.

Defensively, the pass rush started off strong enough to fracture a couple of Tony Romo's ribs and forced him to throw off his back foot quite a bit in the first half. They also had the fortune of playing against Jon Kitna for most of the third quarter, and Kitna threw some horrific passes, leading to a pair of interceptions; one each by Donte Whitner and Tramaine Brock. As usual, they completely took away the running game, holding Dallas to 45 yards on 20 useless carries. At this point it's a wonder why anyone ever bothers calling a run against the 49ers. They're just doing them a favor.

Eventually Dallas tightened up their protection, spread the 49ers defense out and Romo checked back in and started clicking with his receivers -- mainly Miles Austin (who had three touchdowns) and Jason Witten, who were both playing hurt themselves. Romo repeatedly abused all the backups forced into prominent roles on the 49ers secondary, guys like Tarell Brown, Madieu Williams and Reggie Smith. However, it's not like this secondary played any well last year when they had Dashon Goldson and Shawntae Spencer, so expecting those two to be saviors might be wishful thinking.

Whitner is a useful player in that he's good at stopping the run and can do a decent job against most tight ends, but against the cream of the crop like Witten, he's not gonna come out on top. The best player in the secondary, and someone who looks to be a great free agent signing, is corner Carlos Rogers. The team actually had him in the slot against Witten quite a bit and he won some of those battles and lost some. He actually played quite well in the game and got his hand -- and his helmet -- on some balls, and had the deflection on Brock's interception. Unfortunately, Rogers' worst play came in overtime, when both he and Whitner bit on a play-action fake and froze, allowing Jesse Holley of all people to get behind them for the crushing 77-yard reception and the winning field goal.

It's crazy to think the 49ers were one play from winning this game on two separate occasions. Dallas had to convert a 4th-and-5 late in the game, which they did on a sideline pass to Witten. They also had to have Dan Bailey make a 48-yard field goal at the gun when he had missed a chip shot early in the game. Still, for the second half they completely dominated both lines of scrimmage and outgained the 49ers in the game 472 yards to 206. In many aspects both teams were lucky to even get to overtime, and the Cowboys took advantage of their luck while the 49ers did not.

For his part Smith played quite well, and I'm sure going into the game most fans would've gladly taken two touchdown passes, one interception, no fumbles and a 99.1 QB rating from him. He wasn't the problem. Smith had a Romo-like play in the second quarter when he completely missed the shotgun snap, caught the ball on the bounce while running backward to retrieve it, rolled to the right like Montana against Dallas 30-years ago, and found Gore in the end zone 40 yards downfield. It would've been a touchdown had Gore not been interfered with by a desperate Cowboys defender, and the 49ers scored on the next play from one-yard out all the same.

The next drive Smith had a series of third-down conversions and found Kyle Williams in the left corner on a beautiful 12-yard pass over Mike Jenkins' shoulder to make it 14-0. His one bad decision in the second half, trying to force a pass to Davis early in the third quarter, was intercepted and led to Austin's second touchdown which tied the game at 14, but Smith made his best pass shortly after, after Brock's intercepted Kitna. He found a mismatch with tight end Delanie Walker against Dallas' Anthony Spencer, nominally a pass-rusher and hit him in stride on a looping 29-yard score to make it 21-14. It was the only drive in the second half and overtime that didn't have one negative play, and that was probably because it lasted all of one play.

If Smith is to be criticized for anything, except not making better blocking audibles to counter Dallas' pass rush, it's that he didn't challenge Harbaugh for accepting that field goal. A better quarterback wouldn't have even look his coach's way and simply jogged out onto the field. Smith should've at least pushed for it, demanded it. That he doesn't have the personality to do so is why he never meshed with Singletary and why he can never be an elite player. It's just not in him to be the forceful, dominant personality you need at that position.

For now, that personality remains Harbaugh, for better or worse. He said he'd know more about his team after a game or two, and the same is true of his players knowing more about him. Right now he knows he's got some real problems at offensive line and the secondary and some health issues at receiver. His players know he coaches scared, playing not-to-lose instead of going for the throat, just like the last guy and the guy before him.

They'll have 14 games this season to learn more about each other, and for now, it appears, only 14.

Friday, September 16, 2011

49ers-Cowboys Preview, Week 2 Picks

If you need any affirmation of where our plucky San Francisco 49ers stand in the NFL's pecking order, consider the fact that last Sunday night, on the league-owned hour long highlight extravaganza, the visual evidence of their 33-17 triumph over the Seattle Seahawks consisted of a 15 second clip that picked up the action in the fourth quarter with the home side up 19-10. We got the 55-yard touchdown pass from Tarvaris Jackson to Doug Baldwin, where the former Stanford receiver wrong-footed nickel safety Reggie Smith, and then the ensuing 102-yard kick return by Ted Ginn which pushed the margin to nine once more.

Alex Smith's bootleg touchdown in the first half where he dove over two defenders? Not worthy. A montage of first half sacks the defensive line delivered to Jackson? Not relevant. Ginn's punt return touchdown to punctuate the game? Not necessary.

The next day, when asked how he celebrated his first NFL win as the head whistle, Jim Harbaugh, a fellow who gives off the strong impression that he wouldn't know how to celebrate anything if his life depended on it, remarked that he went home and watched TV.

"Just went home and watched the Cowboys game," he said. "Kind of flipped through the channels, the NFL network, and highlight express, and the ESPN blitz. Never caught one highlight of the 49ers on any of those, so I just watched the Cowboys game."

Did that strike you as peculiar, coach?

"No, we know it. It just kind of documents what you know. What the perception is of our team around the league and around the country. Some people can say that’s not fair, it isn’t right, but do something about it. And that’s our mindset. That’s our approach."

I suppose "Win one for the TV producer's attention" doesn't quite have the same ring to it as "Win one for the gipper," but athletes have been inspired by less.

For the record, the only game that got as such short shrift on the highlight shows as 49ers-Seahawks was Jaguars-Titans. What do these two have in common, kids? Divisional rivals in divisions the country doesn't care about, with stopgap quarterbacks squaring off. Should Alex Smith vs. Tarvaris Jackson have inspired that much interest than Luke McCown vs. Matt Hasselbeck? Until further notice, the answer is no.

However, team interest doesn't always align perfectly with records and expectations. The Lakers still got plenty of national games when they were reduced to Kobe Bryant and 11 guys named "Smush" and so did Michael Vick's Falcons teams even though he never figured out what a wide receiver was until he met Andy Reid at Philadelphia. People like who they like and the folks at ESPN decided long ago it's easier to conjure up "news" about those they deem interesting rather than waste precious resources reporting the news as it happens about any Tom, Dick or Harry. Besides, they have all those big money partnerships to protect, so why upset people by sifting through their dirty laundry?

So forget the TV stuff and let's get to the heart of what determines who's top dog in the NFL: The almighty point spread.

The 1-0 49ers, at the friendly confines of Candlestick Park, are field goal dogs to an 0-1 team that is almost identical on paper to the one that finished 6-10 last season. "Poppycock," you say. "That stat is biased. Tony Romo was hurt last season and the Cowboys are entirely different without him."

Well, who am I to argue that? In fact, not only was Dallas markedly different sans Romo, but they were better. They went 1-5 with their marque idol under center and 5-5 with Jon "Jon Kitna" Kitna, a backup so milquetoast that my nickname for him is his name. Romo certainly has the pretty numbers and the heart-thumping magnetism, with charisma that's practically off the scale, but for whatever reason he hasn't won much of late. Combine the opening weekend capitulation at the Jets and 2009's season-ending playoff massacre at the hands of Brett Favre and the Vikings and Romo is a sweet 1-7 in his last eight starts of note.

That's the guy, the one who throws ill-timed picks and fumbles when it's the least convenient time to do so, who's favored by a field goal over your Niners.

The hell of it is, no one is the least bit surprised. The point is not to put down the 49ers specifically, but rather that anybody in the NFC BEast would be favored against anybody from the West, at least if you listen to corner Carlos Rogers, who spent the first six seasons of his career at Washington.

"I was telling the guys, when I played the NFC East, that's the toughest (division)," said Rogers. "You look at the NFC West and you always looked at those guys as soft. You looked at those games as games you should win. I know that's (the Cowboys') mindset coming in here."

Indeed, you'd be hard-pressed to find anybody on the 49ers schedule who don't view them as a "W" with minimal effort, and like Harbaugh said, it's up to them to change that perception.

To do that, they'll have to join the 21st century and start flinging the rock. Their linemen know it, their receivers know it and even their quarterback, who makes a point of defending the "balanced" offensive philosophy at all times like a dutiful soldier, knows it.

"In the past game we were only throwing for a 124 yards," Smith said. "Obviously I’d like to build upon that. So we were efficient as far as completion percentage, but I’d really like to get a little more production."

Yes, you read that correctly. Alex Smith said he'd like to get little more production. He says it in a way like it's a favor he has to ask of his coaches, like a treat he's earned for cleaning his room and eating all his veggies. It doesn't exactly sound like a fellow who's gonna challenge Harbaugh the next time he hears a play-call for a draw to Frank Gore on 3rd-and-8.

That's been the Catch-22 with Smith throughout his career. He hasn't been given the same opportunities from a play-calling standpoint that other quarterbacks are regularly afforded, such as regularly getting to pass on 1st-and-10 or 3rd-and-2, and consequently the 49ers have never scored anywhere close to consistently enough with him under center to merit his coaches treating him the way they Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady gets treated. It's like a chicken and egg argument except the chicken is diseased and the egg is rotten.

New 49ers receiver Braylon Edwards insisted the other day that the team could win a shootout type of game, saying "I know we have what it takes to be in one of them. We have the offensive line, we have the receivers, the running back and the play-calling ability from the coaches."

Notice what critical ingredient he left out of the equation.

The team got away with having an extend preseason last week against Seattle, showing essentially nothing against the Seahawks and doing the bare minimum schematically on offense. If using a sixth offensive lineman is the creative zenith of your game plan, you either A) think absolutely nothing of your opponent B) think even less than that about your quarterback C) are scared to death your offensive line will get innocent spectators hurt, never mind the QB or D) all of the above.

Somewhere, deep inside his 14 layers of black sweaters, Harbaugh knew he wasn't being truthful by defending those runs up the gut by Gore as aggressive, attacking plays. I think he has a pretty good idea he'll have to pass the ball on Sunday and hope for the best, the same as he did with Tavita Pritchard at Stanford.

It'll be up to Smith to prove everyone wrong, and even if he does all the credit will go to his coach, or the blame to Romo, or it will be dismissed as a fluke. Reputations are hard to shake in this league and perception is everything, as a former 49ers quarterback of note is fond of saying.

What we do know is if Smith is ever gonna have a chance to get the home crowd on his side, Sunday's the day. The Cowboys will be without Terence Newman, whose groin is good enough to play on, but the team brass has decided the 49ers can be beaten without his services. They'll miss nickel corner Orlando Scandrick as well, while other starter Mike Jenkins will be limited by a wonky shoulder. Anthony Spencer, their second best pass rusher, also has a bad shoulder. In theory, as long as the 49ers double-team DeMarcus Ware on every play, they should tear these guys up. In theory, Smith was supposed to be a franchise savior as a number one pick. Things don't always work out as planned.

On the other side of the ball, the 49ers defense will get a second straight game against a young, inexperienced offensive line, and safety Donte Whitner will find that Jason Witten is a rich man's version of Zach Miller, with the difference between the two tight ends having more to do with their respective quarterbacks than anything else. I would figure Witten will see some bracket coverage, with Patrick Willis or NaVorro Bowman chipping in underneath. Rogers will draw a lot of one-on-one with Miles Austin, especially in the slot, and if Dez Bryant plays -- he's missed practice all week with a thigh contusion -- he's going to be impaired.

The Cowboys are in town, bruised and battered. They're expecting to win because they're them and the Niners are the Niners. Either way the highlight clip this time out will be a lot longer than 15 seconds and Michael Irvin and Deion Sanders will be doing plenty of chirping. We'll have to see if Harbaugh will be in the mood to watch it.
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Michael Crabtree looked more active in Thursday's individual drills on Thursday than he did on Wednesday, and was running short routes at 80 percent speed I'd say. He was still listed as "limited" in the official practice report, which is usually code for "did not participate in team drills."

Crabtree will be dying to play against his hometown Cowboys so he'll probably force the issue to at least be in the lineup at the beginning, but if he has any kind of setback in the game, I expect this time for the team to have second-year man Kyle Williams dressed and available. And really, with all the smoke everyone's blowing up Ted Ginn's rear end about how much he's improved as a receiver, you'd think they could play him a few snaps from scrimmage.

Dashon Goldson was mostly a spectator from what I saw and he too was listed as limited in the injury report. My guess is he'll be out for the second straight game and the team will once again depend on the combination of Madieu Williams and Reggie Smith. Hopefully Smith shook off some rust last week and will be more ready to contribute, but I have some bad vibes about him against Dallas' receiving corps. He's shown in the past to be susceptible to play-action and he's not the soundest tackler back there either.

Whether Goldson's absence is costly or not depends on if he'll be the 2009 Goldson when he returns or last year's version. If 2010 Dashon is the real one, then that guy can spend all year on the inactive list as far as I'm concerned. 2009 Goldson on the other hand, I'm quite fond of. The Cowboys have a guy like that too in Mike Jenkins. Great in '09, a disaster last year. Try figuring this game out.

Shawntae Spencer, meanwhile, has been a full participant in practice, but he's still behind both Tarell Brown and Tramaine Brock and doesn't figure to see the field from scrimmage. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio explained that Spencer, who missed practically all of training camp, is still not in football shape yet and can only be used in emergency situations. He may challenge for his old spot in the coming weeks.
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Carlos Rogers offered an interesting scouting report on Tony Romo based on his six head-to-head encounters with him:

"He's a quarterback that if you give him time, let him sit back and don't put pressure on him, he can be a Hall-of-Fame quarterback. If you put pressure on him
and you give him different looks, you've got a chance. And that's one of the main things we always knew. You've got to show him different looks. We always knew his outlet, when he'd get in trouble, he's going to (tight end Jason) Witten. So from my experience that's what you've got to do against him. Show him different looks and mix up your coverages. Send pressure at him because he can sit back there and pick you apart."

What about his scrambling, does that worry you?

"You can't look at Romo and think 'OK, I'm going to give him three or four seconds and the ball should be out.' He can do that little pump fake, make guys jump, scramble and throw. He's not a big runner, but if he's got to, he will. He can extend plays."

Is his greatest asset, his improvisational skill, also his biggest weakness?

"Our thing we always said about him was that he would give us two chances. That was one thing that we always said every year. Romo will give you two chances. The games that we won, when he gave us those chances, we took advantage of them. Some games we didn't take advantage, and we didn't get to him in the backfield, he just picked us apart."

Have I mentioned that I love Carlos Rogers? He's definitely our early favorite for the Niver award.
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Other thoughts/picks for Week 2:

Cleveland at Indianapolis (+3):
It all depends on who gets that 10 point lead. The Colts have a smallish front line that the Browns should be able to run on, but those two great edge rushers in Dwight Freeney and Rasheen Mathis to protect any leads they'd get. A shaky pick for the home team. Colts 20, Browns 13.

Kansas City at Detroit (-9):
I'm more of a believer in Detroit than I was last week, but nine points is an awful lot. Jamaal Charles should be able to run in that dome enough to keep them in the game. Lions 27, Chiefs 23.

Oakland at Buffalo (-4):
The Bills with Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams should be able to stop the Raiders running game cold and Silver & Black get no favors from Mr. Schedulemaker, having to fly all the way to Buffalo for an early 10 a.m. game after having had a late Monday night start the week before. Bills 27, Raiders 13. **FOUR POINT SPECIAL**

Baltimore at Tennessee (+7):
Seven point underdogs at home seems like a lot of points to lay, but I can't think of a single argument against Baltimore except they'll be too full of themselves after trouncing Pittsburgh. Ravens 23, Titans 10. **TWO POINT SPECIAL**

Tampa Bay at Minnesota (-3):
The biggest game of the morning slate. The loser is in a world of hurt against a deep NFC field with so many Wild Card candidates. I gotta go the team with the best player, which is Adrian Peterson, so I'm taking the Vikes at home with no confidence whatsoever. Vikings 24, Buccaneers 20.

Chicago at New Orleans (-7):
Many members of the Bears team will travel with Brian Urlacher to his mother's funeral, which is highly unusual. It speaks to how deeply he's entrenched as the talisman of that organization, more so than anyone since Walter Payton. It also signals the strong bond he has with his teammates, who could hardly function in practice without his presence. Gotta go with the upset pick here against the team I picked to win the Super Bowl, based purely on emotion. I think the Bears will absolutely play their guts out for their middle linebacker, as sappy as that sounds. Bears 24, Saints 23.

Jacksonville at NY Jets (-9):
Nine points? Really? What on Earth did the Jets show on Sunday nine to prove they can beat anyone by nine? Rex Ryan's guys will typically sleepwalk through the first half and the Jaguars will find a way to keep this annoyingly close. Jets 19, Jaguars 16.

Seattle at Pittsburgh (-15):
Not to go all Simmons on you, but this is an absolutely ridiculous line. I was off by 8 points when I guessed what it would be in the morning. I know the Steelers defense will be angry, but they're not gonna get younger overnight. Besides, that referee is gonna give Seattle a couple of makeup calls methinks. Steelers 23, Seahawks 16.

Arizona at Washington (-4):
It's not the venue that makes this a rough game for the Cardinals but rather that they get the 'Skins in the first half of the year, when they're always feisty, than in December, when they're in vacation mode. Redskins 27, Cardinals 17.

Green Bay at Carolina (+11):
Cam Newton passed for 422 yards last week and is making his home debut. You think that would be enough for me to happily take the points. Like a fool, I'm gonna lay them, and I probably would if the line was 14. Packers 40, Panthers 13. **FIVE POINT SPECIAL**

Dallas at San Francisco (+3):
No, I don't think Alex Smith will stink it up, but I'm not ready to declare the 49ers a top-10 defense yet either. Either way, I'm curious to see what Harbaugh and his coaches are all about, at last. Cowboys 27, 49ers 20.

Cincinnati at Denver (-4):
Andy Dalton is the only compelling reason to watch this game. Everyone likes the Bengals in this one because they can kinda sorta run and pass while the Broncos can't run a lick. I don't know. It seems too easy. Denver 31, Cincinnati 20.

Houston at Miami (+3):
Still don't think Arian Foster will be ready to play and these are the kind of games the Texans always blow. If Miami can't pull this out, I'm done with 'em for the year. Miami 23, Houston 20.

San Diego at New England (-7):
What the heck, a second upset pick. The Pats are overdue to lose a home game in the regular season and call me crazy, I'll take the team with the better defense. Who on New England can cover Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson or Malcolm Floyd? San Diego 30, New England 27.

Philadelphia at Atlanta (+3):
First off, I'll take Vick and the Eagles in virtually any game on turf, that's a given. But when you factor in the glaring difference between the two secondaries and the fact that it will be akin to a home game for Philly because of their quarterback, how can I not take them? Also, I have to say for the record, and this is coming from an Eagles guy, that I find the whole racial dynamic of this game, where a large segment of the crowd will be rooting against their own team, very disappointing and a bit creepy. It's 2011 and we should be beyond this stuff.

That Martin Luther King Jr. message about judging a man not by the color of his skin but the content of his character cuts both ways. Vick was a good player for the Falcons, but a highly overrated one. What did he ever win for them? Shouldn't their fans revile him, if not for his crimes, than at least for being dumb enough to piss away his career there instead of worshiping him? Vick even admitted he wasn't a professional as a Falcon and didn't work nearly hard enough, yet he's still loved down there. I just don't get it. Eagles 37, Falcons 24. **THREE POINT SPECIAL**

St. Louis at NY Giants (-6):
You get the feeling this game will either be a real dog or wildly entertaining, with nothing in between. The Rams are beat up on offense, while the Giants defense is decimated. If the Rams drop it, they can be staring a 1-6 start in the face. A third upset pick here, because Steve Spagnuolo knows the Giants personnel better than the other way around. Rams 20, Giants 17.

Week 1 Record: 11-5
Vs. Spread: 8-7-1
+/- Points (All games count as one unless otherwise specified): -5