Time To Change The Narrative With Smith; Week 10 Picks

There's a saying that goes "Opinions are like assholes -- everyone has one, and they all stink."

A peculiarly funky aroma has been associated with San Francisco 49ers quarterback Alex Smith for some, and no matter how much he does to wipe away the past and wash his hands of it, that shitty smell won't escape him in the eyes of critics.

Steve Young, the quarterback here a generation ago, is fond of saying that "perception is reality," and in the NFL the perception, by and large is that the 7-1 Niners have been winning in spite of Smith rather than because of him. It doesn't matter if you tune in to east coast-based ESPN or the NFL Network out of Los Angeles or any point in between. The 49ers are thought of a team with a ferocious defense, a physical running game, a brilliant coach and a liability under center.

"I think (49ers coach Jim) Harbaugh is doing as good a job as there is in this league with what he has," remarked Greg Cosell, an analyst with NFL Films, during an interview with KNBR 680, the local sportstalk monolith. "And you know how I feel about Alex Smith. It’s not personal knock on Alex Smith. Why do you think Jim Harbaugh is doing what he’s doing? He’s telling you –- I don’t have to tell you –- he’s telling you what he thinks of Alex Smith. He’s managing him."

Cosell is alluding to the fact that the 49ers are 30th in the league in passing yards and 32nd -- dead last -- in pass attempts. Despite playing virtually every snap through eight games, Smith is not on pace to pass for even 3,000 yards in an age where 4,000 is ho-hum and some of his contemporaries are threatening to eclipse 5,000. In their most recent game, a 19-11 win at Washington, Smith completed 17-of-24 passes for 200 yards -- and that was his second most prolific game of the season as far as yardage was concerned.

For example of how those numbers resonate with people, here are a couple of sections from Lowell Cohn's column after that game in the Santa Rosa Press Democrat:

Myth: Rookie coach Jim Harbaugh has discovered and unleashed the essential Alex Smith, the great college player taken first in the draft.

So far, so good. It is a myth that Smith has improved leaps and bounds under Harbaugh's tutelage. When it comes to 49ers who've taken a gigantic step forward in 2011 he's well behind guys like Mike Iupati, NaVorro Bowman, Anthony Davis, Dashon Goldson, Ray McDonald, Adam Snyder, Delanie Walker and Ahmad Brooks. Few seem to remember that Smith combined for eight touchdown passes to one interception over his final six appearances in 2010 and that included in that stretch was a game against the Seattle Seahawks on Dec. 12 where he posted the highest rating (130.9) of his career. So Cohn is technically right here, in an ironic sense.

Then he goes off the rails...

That is a myth — although it's a charming myth. If you believe it, you are not watching the 49ers through the lens of reality. Smith has a high completion percentage and a good passer rating. For that, he deserves a hallelujah. But his numbers, game by game, are unassuming and small. You might even say he has the numbers of a losing quarterback.

Smith is fifth in completion percentage at 64.1. The combined won-loss records of the four passers ahead of him (Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Ryan Fitzpatrick) and the one behind (Ben Roethlisberger) is 30-12.

Smith is sixth in passer rating at 97.3. The combined won-loss records of the five passers ahead of him (Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Matthew Stafford and Eli Manning) and the three behind him (Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub and Fitzpatrick) is 48-19.

I'd say Smith has the numbers of a winning quarterback.

Please don't go into a conniption about that last sentence. Smith is playing well and deserves credit. But he is not Aaron Rodgers and he won't be. In Sunday's game, he threw for 200 yards, a mere pittance. Redskins quarterback John Beck, a real loser, threw for 254 yards. Beck threw one TD pass and so did Smith. Beck completed 30 passes and Smith completed a modest 17.

While this paragraph might suggest otherwise, no, Lowell Cohn does not play fantasy football. He is judging quarterback play through the prism of completions and yards, which is akin to judging a baseball player by batting average and RBIs. Beck had nearly twice as many attempts (47) to Smith's 24 in the game and averaged 5.4 yards-per-attempt to Smith's 8.3. Cohn also neglects to mention that Beck's touchdown pass came with 1:10 left and the 49ers nursing a 19-3 lead, but I suppose in his warped view this was an indication that he was more "clutch" than Smith by virtue of having done it late in the game.

Let's skip to the end...

Harbaugh is praising Smith for certain limited virtues: grit, smarts, and for throwing a good pass when called upon. He is not praising Smith for being a game-winner. He is praising him for not being a game-loser. This is a large step forward from previous seasons, but it also expresses Smith's limitations — which still exist.

Ah, there it is. Smith is David Eckstein.

How one person could view things like the 49ers defense and Frank Gore as assets, Cohn views them as limitations that make it difficult to build up the ethos of 49ers quarterback as conquering hero. It's been a few years, so he probably has difficulty remembering that those Bill Walsh/Joe Montana teams ran it more than they passed it and that Montana averaged a bit less than the 532 passing yards and seven touchdowns to Jerry Rice per game that are no doubt running on a perpetual loop inside Cohn's venerable brain.

That's not to compare Smith to Montana, mind you, but even in today's pass-happy NFL, the fact remains that quarterbacks who chuck it all over the yard are the ones who have to. Rodgers, Brady, Manning, Brees, they'd all swap Gore for their running backs in a second if they could, and that goes double for the 49ers defense. I wonder if Cohn's noticed the drop in Schaub's numbers for the Texans. Houston's got a sensational running game and a much-improved defense, so they're not throwing it nearly as much. The Texans are 6-3. I'm guessing Cohn would look at the stats and conclude Schaub was a much better player last year.

49ers offensive coordinator Greg Roman was mystified that the topic of Smith's passing yards was even an issue when he was asked about it on Thursday.

"When you’re up, you’re not going to throw as much, right? And your yards per carry aren’t going to be as high because you’re facing loaded defenses and your defensive stats will probably be down, so to speak, because the other team’s been throwing it around. The only stat that matters is winning, everything else is statistical analysis and information gathering."

Smith has had over 30 pass attempts three times this season. In a completely shocking coincidence, all three were games in which the 49ers were trailing in the fourth quarter. He also happened to lead comeback wins, on the road, in all three, but why should anybody care about or appreciate that when he didn't even throw for 300 yards in any of those games, right?

"When you’re a score or two scores ahead in the second half, especially in the fourth quarter, you would tend to run the ball more," Harbaugh explained. "That could be an indication of things going well."

Harbaugh also came to his quarterback's defense on Wednesday, yet managed to rip off three consecutive sentences that were either flat out lies or staggeringly wrong statements just the same.

"I think people that know football and understand the game appreciate Alex Smith as a very talented quarterback," he said.

Unless Harbaugh believes that the only people who "know football and understand the game" reside in the 49ers coaching offices -- and don't put it past him -- that's wrong.

"He's every bit the elite quarterback as there is playing in the game right now."

Bit of a stretch.

"(I) appreciate all the talent that he has and what he brings to our team."

The truth is you could stand to appreciate it a bit more, coach, by occasionally calling pass plays inside the red zone with a lead and giving Smith's critics ammunition.

The Niners face the 6-2 New York Giants on Sunday in a game that will pit Smith, the third-rated fourth quarter passer in the NFL, against Manning, who's first in that category and the author of four fourth quarterback comebacks, including last week's dazzler at New England. Of course Smith will be less concerned with Manning and more so about a Giants defense that's tops in the NFL with 28 sacks, led by Jason Pierre-Paul (9.5) and Osi Umenyiora (6.0). End Justin Tuck has contributed but two of those 28 quarterback take downs, but he too chimed in with his opinion on Smith.

"He's a guy who they're trying to keep out of position to win the football game," Tuck said. "Obviously, with a back like Frank Gore and the O-Line keeping them in third-and-short situations and even if it's third-and-6 or 7, they still feel that they can pick it up running. I think they're asking Alex not to lose the game. He's playing decent with 10 touchdowns and two picks. He's not putting (their) defense in bad situations. If they get in field-goal range, they're going to run the ball and make sure they come away with some points. If they're not, they are going to run the ball and make sure they punt to put their defense in good positions to stop the offense."

Judging by those statements it's a wonder Harbaugh ever lets Smith pass the ball at all. Still, regardless of how many games he's won or how efficient he's been, most critics won't be sated until Smith slices an opposing secondary to ribbons (you know, again, since that first time against Philadelphia didn't count) and he does it over and over against quality competition. Basically he has to out-duel a star quarterback while Gore and the defense have off days.

Young, the first 49ers quarterback who any of us can remember playing with crappy backs and worse defenses said in an interview with that same sports talk monolith that it couldn't hurt to experiment.

"Offensively, if we’re actually going to threaten –- and we might as well, we’re 7-1, let’s go deep! Let’s do it! –- at some point as we have some games to, not waste, but some games to toy a little bit, not toy, what’s the word, we have games that we have to really push the envelope, let’s do it offensively, let’s throw the ball 40 times just once, just to see how it goes. Let’s go no huddle. Let’s go win it with the passing game."

Like just about every opponent they've played, the Giants are better in pass defense (19th) than stopping the run (24th). They like to stay in their "big nickel" package with three safeties and used it frequently last week against the Patriots even when New England went with the type of jumbo formations Harbaugh favors with extra linemen and multiple tight ends. Logic says the 49ers would be well off continuing to do what's been working and pound Gore early and often.

However, Frank the Tank has a gimpy left ankle and won't be 100 percent. Receiver Hakeem Nicks will be back for the Giants -- and running back Ahmad Bradshaw won't be -- suggesting that Manning will have a good day passing the rock and putting up some points. I dare say the locals will have to score well in the 20's to come out on top in this game, so Smith very well may have to put it up 30, 35 times. If he does, and the 49ers prevail, in a national game on Fox that will be seen by all the pundits back east, then maybe Smith will change some opinions.

Which will still stink, of course.

The Picks

Arizona at Philadelphia (0): The line is even because nobody is sure of Kevin Kolb's status. This feels like cheating, but I need all the help I can get. Eagles 27, Cardinals 17. **FIVE POINT SPECIAL**

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (+3): I'm feeling a big game from Maurice Jones-Drew here. Jaguars 23, Colts 9 **FOUR POINT SPECIAL**

New Orleans at Atlanta (+1): I do not trust the Saints on the road, but hopefully I'm wrong and they win in a shoot-out. Falcons 24, Saints 20

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+3): I know the Steelers will be grumpy, but I believe in Andy Dalton for now. Bengals 20, Steelers 17

St. Louis at Cleveland (-3): I like Joshua Cribbs against that slooow secondary. Sure, why not? Browns 24, Rams 17

Buffalo at Dallas (-6): Ryan Fitzpatrick can't stink it up twice in a row, can he? Bills 27, Cowboys 24

Denver at Kansas City (-4): I can see either team winning by 30. Chiefs 30, Broncos 10

Washington at Miami (-4): Reggie Bush is on fire. I don't know what to do with that information. Dolphins 23, Redskins 13

Houston at Tampa Bay (+4): I like the Texans running game against a Bucs defense missing Gerald McCoy. Texans 27, Buccaneers 20

Tennessee at Carolina (-4): Cam Newton is gonna have a big game here, I'm guessing. Panthers 30, Titans 23

Baltimore at Seattle (+7): God help me Flacco, you better not crap the bed. Ravens 26, Seahawks 10 **TWO POINT SPECIAL**

Detroit at Chicago (-3): I'm starting to buy the Bears, but I think the Lions match up well with them. Which means I have no point. Lions 24, Bears 20

New York Giants at San Francisco (-3): In the interest of full disclosure, would've picked the Giants if Bradshaw was healthy. 49ers 26, Giants 21

New England at New York Jets (-1): I love the Jets in this game, because I'm biased and insane. Jets 27, Patriots 20 **THREE POINT SPECIAL**

Minnesota at Green Bay (-14): Too... many... points. Packers 30, Vikings 20

Last week's W-L: 8-6
Season W-L: 81-49
Week 9 Vs. Spread: 8-6
Season Vs. Spread: 52-71-7
Week 9 +/- Points (All games count as one point unless specified): 12
Season +/- Points: -16

Why Lowell Cohn Was Wrong

Because why not start off this blog with a critique of a longtime columnist who's twice my age and a thousand more times accomplished?

I consider myself a fan of Mr. Cohn. I wouldn't presume to say we're friends, but I've worked alongside him numerous times and I get along very well with his son Grant. Lowell calls me "Dookie" (short for "Duke of Earl" as in Erler.) As with any columnist, I don't always agree with Lowell, and I found myself not just disagreeing but agitated to the point of not being able to sleep for a bit about a blog post he wrote last Saturday in the wake of the 49ers-Raiders preseason game that we both covered.

Here it is, in its entirety:

SAN FRANCISCO — You know a good quarterback when you see one. Alex Smith doesn’t have the look — not yet. Will he ever?

He did some nice things against Oakland on Saturday night. I would be a real stick in the mud if I didn’t say that.

On the 49ers’ first drive, Smith hit Vernon Davis as he was supposed to with a nifty pass to the right and Davis caught the ball as he was supposed to and ended up with a 14-yard gain. It was all very professional.

Later on, Smith connected with Joshua Morgan for 32 yards and after that he hit Braylon Edwards near the sideline for a 32-yard gain, Edwards snagging the ball with one hand and clutching it into his body.

You looked at Smith doing that and you thought, “He’s not so bad after all. And why is everybody giving this nice man a rough time?”

There was one problem, though. With Smith there’s always one problem or sometimes more than one. Mixed in with all those good things Smith did a not-so-good thing.

He took the ball in the shotgun formation and stared at Davis. He stared at Davis a long time. The coaches have told him not to stare at one receiver, but gee whiz, he just can’t help himself. If the play was a cartoon, a big black arrow would have pointed at Davis’ helmet and the words INTENDED RECEIVER would have floated above Davis’ head to let everyone know Smith was going his way.

Maybe the Raiders saw the arrow — in this case an invisible arrow. They most definitely saw Smith’s eyes beaming in Davis’ direction. Raiders’ defensive end Matt Shaughnessy eyeballed Smith eyeballing Davis — call it the Double Eyeball Maneuver. Shaughnessy stepped in front of Davis and snagged the pass. That goes into the record book as an interception or, if you prefer to be colloquial, call it a pick.

As you can imagine, there was considerable discussion of the pick postgame. Smith, the most honest man alive, said, “I didn’t see the guy.” That sure would explain the play. Smith should have realized Shaughnessy, a defensive end, was dropping back in coverage. That’s what he said, and he will do that next time. And he meant it.

Harbaugh, who may or may not have a way with words, explained the play this way: “We talked about it. We feel it’s a correctable thing. I know what happened. We have to do a better job with our eyes.”

It’s that last sentence that stays with you, the phrase “our eyes.” It’s like Harbaugh and Smith share one pair of eyes. “Coach, can I borrow the eyes tonight?” Or maybe Harbaugh has the better set of peepers when it comes to seeing the field and wishes he could pop his eyes into Smith’s head on football Sunday.

The whole eyes thing and the pick make you wonder about Smith. He is a mixture of good and bad, always has been. In life that’s an OK mixture. How often have you heard wise people say, “No one’s all good or all bad. People are a mixture.”

But football is more demanding than life. As unfair as this seems, football doesn’t tolerate a mixture. It requires quarterbacks to be good all the time. It’s not like a quarterback — say, Smith — can throw a few good passes and then he gets the license to really stink out the joint and throw a brain-numbing, drive-murdering pick.

Even though Smith did good stuff when he did the good stuff, his passer rating was 61.7 for the mostly two quarters he played. A quarterback rating of 61.7 is considered low, although not as low as the turf inhabited by an earthworm or a mole. In school, a grade of 61.7 is a “D-minus,“ and that isn’t so hot. By contrast, Raiders’ starting quarterback Jason Campbell had a quarterback rating of 105.7 until Ahmad Brooks knocked him out of the game.

This is not to say Campbell is a superior performer to Smith — well, actually it is to say Campbell is a superior performer to Smith.

You may think I’m mean. You may think I’m being hard on Smith, not encouraging him for doing well some of the time in an exhibition game. You may think I owed him an atta boy. It doesn’t work that way. The burden of proof is on Smith — now, finally, and forever.

There are three main problems I have with this column.

First of all, after checking the TV replay multiple times, I strongly dispute the notion that Smith stared at Davis the whole way. If anything, he threw the pick because he didn't stare at him enough. If you look at this clip, particularly the second half of it with the end zone view, you'll clearly see that Smith kept his eyes down the middle of the field to look off the safeties. Only at the last instant did he look at Davis before releasing the ball, assuming with the safeties out of the play that Davis would be all alone. If he stared at him the whole way, as Cohn suggests, he would've seen the ultra-rare sight of a defensive end, in this case Matt Shaughnessy, dropping 15 yards down the field and toward the sidelines to take the out route away. Was it a poor read from Smith? Absolutely. But suggesting that Smith made the rookie mistake of staring down a receiver the whole way is at best lazy writing and at worst agenda-driven writing, a case of seeing what you want to see instead of what actually transpired.

Secondly, Cohn brings up Smith's final rating - 61.7 - to draw his "D-" conclusion. It's cute, but again either thoughtless or willfully misleading. Smith had all of 13 pass attempts and three of his five incompletions were flat out drops of passes he put right on the receivers' hands.

Thirdly and most important of all, Cohn ignores the fact that Smith had virtually no chance to boost his stats with touchdown passes because of the six goal-to-go plays the team ran on their first and third drives, Jim Harbaugh, cognizant of not wanting to reveal any of his good plays in the preseason, called simple runs up the gut. The one pass attempt Smith had, it was a play-action with one receiver option, Joshua Morgan. Smith felt Morgan was covered, so he threw the ball away.

Now, lord knows Smith has deserved plenty of criticism for his play over the years. But I think we can agree that one of his strengths has been as a red zone passer. He's very effective there. He either throws touchdowns or the team kicks field goals. He doesn't turn the ball over in those situations. He led the league in passer rating last season -- something like 118, I think -- and had nine touchdowns and no picks in red zone situations. I'm gonna give him the benefit of the doubt and say he might have produced at least one touchdown there in a normal circumstance if given the opportunity.

Cohn punishes Smith in his column without ever clarifying that he had but one goal-to-go pass attempt and never explains how a different non-Smith quarterback could've produced multiple touchdowns on drives one and three where Smith did not. He all but blames the botched up field goal on Smith.

In my opinion, there are two main facets of quarterback play: Making the right decision and making an accurate throw. I contend that on Smith's 13 attempts he executed 25 out of 26 possible times. He made the right decision 12 of 13 plays, with the only obvious exception being the interception, and he made an accurate throw all 13 of his plays. Even on the pick, if Shaughnessy wasn't there, the ball was on a direct trajectory to Davis. It was a bad decision, but not an inaccurate pass.

I gave Smith a "B" for the game, knocking him down a full letter grade for the interception. Otherwise it was very hard to find any fault with him. He read the Raiders defense, he stood tall against their blitzes, and he made the right decision and the accurate throw time and again. To me, that's progress, as much as we can assign progress to a preaseason game against the Raiders. I don't blame him for not putting more points on the board because his hands were tied by the coach (and wisely so, considering the circumstance).

I suspect Cohn in his heart of hearts probably thinks Smith had a "B" game as well. However he is a columnist, and the job of the columnist is to be interesting and provocative. If you want an honest assessment of how so-and-so played, look to the beat writers, whose jobs are to be objective. Columnists look for angles, even ones they don't necessarily believe.

I think Cohn didn't write that Smith had a "B" game because he doesn't think that is interesting enough to warrant a column. It wouldn't have gotten as much reader reaction, positive or negative, as writing that he stunk.

Well you know what? People have written "Alex Smith stinks" columns since 2005. No one in their right mind has any expectations of him. Everyone assumes he'll always stink. So to my way of thinking, writing "Alex Smith stunk" IS the boring column.

You want to be original? You want to be provocative? Explain to your writers that while you saw good things A, B, and C, that it doesn't mean squat because you still saw X, Y, and Z. That as long as X, Y, and Z exist Smith will always let people down. Make it clear that while Smith played well in this game, you still think he'll be poor when it matters. At least then you're stating a critical opinion, which is your aim, but still being honest about the game you watched in the context of its own vacuum.

Otherwise, why even go to the game? Seriously, Cohn could've written this column by looking at the box score, and if I didn't personally see him in the press box, I would've assumed that's just what he did.
**************************************************************************
Apropos of Nothing

Only two weeks in and I already feel the EPL is over. Goddamn Man United is gonna win it again. They just toyed with Tottenham on Monday. It was 3-0 but could've been 6-0. They're just too good.

I mean, they decimated a decent Spurs side with Javier Hernandez, Dimitar Berbatov, Ryan Giggs, Park Ji-Sung, Rio Ferdinand and Michael Carrick all out of the starting 11. All six of those guys probably could've started for the Spurs and if not, then at least for most of the other teams in the league.

What hope does anyone else have? Liverpool won at Arsenal, but they're not very deep. The Gunners are selling off their guys left and right -- ownership problems Ratto tells me. Chelsea are supposedly close to getting Luka Modric from the Spurs in last gasp hope that he'll be able to get Fernando Torres goals when all others have tried and failed. Manchester City? Yeah, right.

I don't know what bothers me more, that it already seems like a foregone conclusion that the Red Devils will win again or that in spite of myself I found myself in awe of their quality and style while watching the game on Monday. Heaven help me they really played beautiful, attractive football. How am I suppose to hate them if they keep doing that?

I'm sure Alex Ferguson will think of something.
************************************************************************
Tonight's song on my I-Pod that is typically enjoyed by a 13-year-old girl:

"Give the Jew Girl Toys" by Sarah Silverman.

"What does Jesus have to do with you?/You've got as much to do with Jesus as you do with Scooby Doo."

Alright, enough for the first day. Time for bed, as I haven't slept for 36 hours because of magazine duties. I'll write something more Niners specific tomorrow.