Wednesday, October 12, 2011

The Definition of Coaching, Morgan on IR, Week 6 Power Poll

Coach Jim Harbaugh and his staff are getting a lot of credit, deservedly so, for the 49ers 4-1 start, but I think it's important to not get it twisted. He and offensive coordinator Greg Roman, defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and the rest of the assistants are coaches, not miracle workers. What they're doing is teaching their players, putting them in the best tactical position to succeed, taking advantage of their strengths and minimizing their weaknesses while at the same time exploiting the weaknesses of their opponents.

In other words, they're doing their jobs. They're coaching.

What Harbaugh and his staff are doing is getting the players to play to their potential, not over it. For the most part this is how Trent Baalke, and Scot McCloughan before him and Mike Nolan before him, envisioned these guys performing when they drafted them. The 49ers have been a bad club for a long time and thus they've accumulated a lot of high draft picks. They've had the opportunity to draft the biggest and fastest guys year after year. Finally they have the coaches to take advantage of that talent; the right teachers and strategists who can mold these lumps of clay, all these weapons at their disposal, the right way.

This roster is not the Bad News Bears or the 2008 Detroit Lions. There's a lot of talented guys here and there was a reason this team was the prohibitive division favorites in 2009 and 2010. Some folks may look at the 4-1 record and the way they dismantled Tampa Bay as proof that Harbaugh is Bill Walsh reincarnated. I think it's proof of how in over their heads Nolan and Mike Singletary were and how spectacularly this team underachieved while they were in charge. Even an average NFL coaching staff would've been sufficient to get this team in the playoffs in the sorry NFC West the past couple of seasons.

Now don't get me wrong, I think Harbaugh is a good coach. But he fell into a perfect situation. The 49ers were so mismanaged the past few years that they suckered the national pundits into this false narrative that the team was void of talent, when really most first-time coaches would kill to come into a situation this good.

Look at the linebackers. Who's got a quartet like Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, Ahmad Brooks and Aldon Smith? All those guys are athletic as hell and can run with anybody. Safety Dashon Goldson is a heat-seeking missile when he's right and hits as hard as anybody. Justin Smith is as good as any 3-4 defensive end in the league.

Offensively, Vernon Davis is a mismatch against every team in the league. No linebacker can hope to run with him. Michael Crabtree was drafted in the top ten because he had no holes in his game in college. He wasn't elite in any category except getting in and out of his breaks, but he had great hands, good leaping ability, good speed, good run-after-catch skills, etc. Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis were picked high because they're massive bulldozers who can move and get out on the second level on pulls and traps and screens.

General manager Baalke deserves tremendous credit as well, not just for his 2011 draft class, which has yielded immediate contributors in Aldon Smith, Kendall Hunter, Bruce Miller and Chris Culliver, but also for the numerous free agent signings after the lockout that have patched holes and legitimately improved the club, such as Carlos Rogers, Donte Whitner and Jonathan Goodwin.

Finally, the guy who deserve some real kudos is a fella by the name of Alex Smith, but that's a story for Friday.

Morgan’s Unfortunate Injury

WR Joshua Morgan suffered what Harbaugh described as a broken bone in his lower right leg during Sunday’s 48-3 wipeout of Tampa Bay and had surgery to repair it the following day. Harbaugh said he will be out for “an extended time” and it was revealed Wednesday morning that Morgan would be placed on injured reserve and lost for the season. It's a bad break (no pun intended) for Morgan, who is without question one of the most popular players on the team by teammates and media alike. His contract is up after this season and his future is in limbo, depending on how well he's able to recover from his injury. Morgan led the wideouts with 15 receptions for 220 yards and seemed well-suited for Harbaugh's West Coast Offense, where he ran the slant patten well and excelled at gaining yards after the catch. He was also an excellent blocker on the perimeter, and the running game will suffer in his absence.

The story surrounding the injury was the timing of it. The score was 41-3 at the time with around four minutes to go and the offense at the Buccaneers’ 20-yard-line. Harbaugh decided to go for it on 4th-and-2 and rookie QB Colin Kaepernick passed it to Morgan, who caught the pass and then had his leg rolled up on by a defender while trying to work his way into the end zone.

Harbaugh defended the decision, saying, "The thought process was to make a first down, get back into running the clock down to the point where you can take a knee. There is no second team on a 46-man roster, offense, defensively, or special teams. You kick the field goal, you expose the kicker. You take a knee, now the defense is back on the field, you don’t want to put your defense back there. Next option is throw a short pass, which we did. Try to get the first down and now you’re taking more time off the clock. Run the ball, you’re still, in my experience, more times offensive linemen are rolled up on a run play than a pass play. Really, you’re trying to dodge bullets at that point. The intent is to get the clock down to where you can take a knee. This occasion, we didn’t dodge it."

All well and good and it sounds very convincing. The problem is I'm sure Harbaugh had a plausible quote to explain why he went for two when he was already up a thousand points against USC, prompting Pete Carroll to ask him "What's your deal?" too. This just in, coaches lie to the media. While Harbaugh is right that there is an injury risk on every play, there was no need to play Morgan in that spot because there was no need to use a three receiver formation in that spot because there was no need to pass in that spot. Harbaugh was running up the score, which is standard operating procedure for him.

Inject him with sodium pentathol about why he passed there and I'm guessing Harbaugh's answer would be something more along the realm of "Because eff them and eff you, that's why."

Which would be awesome, by the way.

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49ers Sign WR Swain

With Braylon Edwards still a couple weeks away from returning from his knee injury, the 49ers needed a fourth receiver, so they signed free agent Brett Swain, 26, who is 6-1 and 200 pounds. Swain, who was drafted in the 7th-round by Green Bay in 2008 out of SDSU, played two seasons for the Packers, and saw time in all 20 games for them last season, catching six passes for 72 yards in the regular season and leading the team with three special teams tackles in their Super Bowl win over Pittsburgh. Swain is mainly known for his special teams work, so it will be interesting if he will supplant Kyle Williams as the fourth receiver once Edwards returns to active duty, because of his prowess in that area. As you surely know by now, the 49ers place a huge emphasis on special teams, and their dominance in that phase of the game under coordinator Brad Seely is a big reason they’ve started 4-1.

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49ers Statistical Rankings, presented without comment:

49ers Offensive Rankings:


Rushing: 117.2 YPG (12th); Yards Per Carry: 4.0 (T-20th); Rushing Touchdowns: 6 (T-4th);

Passing: 183.0 YPG (29th); Completion Percentage: 66.7 (5th); Yards Per Attempt: 7.8 (T-10th);

Passing Touchdowns: 7 (T-15th); Interceptions: 1 (T-1st); Sacks: 14 (T-24th);

QB Rating: 104.8 (3rd); 3rd Down Percentage: 33.9 (22nd);

Yards Per Game: 300.2 (27th); Scoring: 28.4 (7th)

49ers Defensive Rankings:

Rushing: 76.4 YPG (T-4th); Yards Per Carry: 3.6 (7th); Rushing Touchdowns: 0 (1st)

Passing: 264.0 YPG (23rd); Completion Percentage: 58.0 (11th); Yards Per Attempt: 7.2 (T-12th);

Passing Touchdowns: 7 (T-11th); Interceptions: 8 (3rd); Sacks: 12 (T-11th);

Fumbles Forced: 5 (T-7th); Fumbles Recovered: 5 (2nd);

3rd Down Percentage: 35.3 (11th); Yards Per Game: 340.8 (13th); Scoring: 15.6 (2nd)

49ers Special Teams Rankings:


Kickoff Return: 32.5 Avg (2nd); Kickoff Return Allowed: 21.3 Avg (5th);

Punt Return: 11.8 Avg (11th); Punt Return Allowed: 8.5 Avg (13th);

Field Goal Percentage: 83.3 (T-19th); Net Punt Average: 47.5 Yards (2nd)

Giveaway/Takeaway:

Giveaways: 4 (T-1st); Takeaways: 14 (T-2nd); Plus/Minus: +10 (2nd)
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Power Poll:

1) Green Bay (5-0):
The gulf between them and number two is probably as wide as between number two and number 20. They fall behind 14-0 to a fired up Atlanta team in their dome and couldn't be less rattled. For a lot of good teams with high-octane offense, a 14 point deficit wouldn't be the end of the world and maybe they'd come back and win a shootout with the Falcons 38-35. The Packers simply didn't allow another point and won going away, intercepting Matt Ryan twice and making him, and Atlanta, look rather ordinary. (Which they are.)

2) Baltimore (3-1): They improve their standing while resting. New Orleans plays too many close games against too many blah teams for my liking. Good test coming up against the Texans at home (but without Andre Johnson and Mario Williams).

3) New Orleans (4-1):
The Saints defense may be better than you think. They lead the league in completion percentage allowed, and are up there in yards-per-attempt and sacks too. The guys they've given up a ton of yards to (Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub, Cam Newton) everybody struggles against. The offense remains as daunting as ever and Drew Brees is as good in the two-minute drill as anyone. Real interesting game coming up at Tampa.

4. New England (4-1):
They held the Jets to 255 yards. Does that mean their defense is turning it around, or do the Jets really stink that badly? There's no way a quarterback like Mark Sanchez should be held to 166 when he only takes two sacks and throws no picks. Offensively, the Pats remain as indefatigable as ever and continue to frustrate fantasy owners with their revolving running back situation. They've got the Cowboys at home in the Meteor Bowl on Sunday.

5. Detroit (5-0): I wonder if Alex Smith watched that game Monday night with all that noise and the heat the Lions front four was bringing and all those false starts by the Bears offensive line. I'd be chugging Pepto Bismol if I were him watching that, wouldn't you? Jahvid Best ran for 163 yards against Chicago, but you'll forgive me if I need more convincing with him. How big of a lead would the 49ers need to have on Sunday for you to feel comfortable? Detroit has outscored their foes 109-23 in second halves.

6. Buffalo (4-1): Two impressive wins over New England and Philly, but I see a couple of bad omens. First, their defense can't stop anybody. Sure, they're getting turnovers by the bushel, but that kind of thing comes in chunks and the Bills don't have the pass rush to keep that going. Second, the Eagles held those receivers in check pretty easily in the second half. Buffalo's entire offense was pretty much Fred Jackson running and catching it. With Donald Jones sidelined a good long while, the receiving corps is Stevie Johnson and not much else. They test their mettle against another NFC East foe at the Giants.

7. San Diego (4-1): Slowly starting to put it together. Once they get Antonio Gates back, they'll be their usual unstoppable selves on offense (pre-January). Defense is another story, but their schedule is cake. They get to rest up this week.

8. San Francisco (4-1):
For the first time since 2002, the 49ers are in the upper quadrant of the NFL. Hey, they've earned it. They had their starting safety tandem playing together for the first time and the results speak for themselves. Rookies Aldon Smith and Chris Culliver are coming on. The inside linebackers are beasts. As are the tight ends. And the running backs. Alex Smith is playing out of his mind. Who are these guys? They win at Detroit, and cue the Sports Illustrated cover story on Harbaugh.

9. Oakland (3-2): Most impressive win of the week, at Houston. Raiders have a lot of pieces and if they get any decent play from their secondary, they're very tough to beat. Can't punish them too much for losing to two teams above them in the rankings. This looks like the best offense they've had since they went to the Super Bowl and the defense played as hard against Houston as I've ever seen it. Trap game at home vs. Cleveland or will they be able to keep up that intense emotion of Al Davis' passing for the home fans?

10. Houston (3-2): Just brutal, losing their best player on offense and defense. At least Andre Johnson is only going to miss a few weeks. Losing Mario Williams for the season is a game-changer for them. Maybe -- maybe -- they'll still win the division, but the defense is about to go "arrow down" in Harbaugh-speak in a major way. And now they have to go to Baltimore. Oy vey.

11. Pittsburgh (3-2): Got healthy against an over-hyped Tennessee team and Big Ben and his receivers showed just how irrelevant Rashard Mendenhall is for them in the grand scheme. There's only a dozen or so running backs that truly matter in the NFL and he's not one of them. Pretty much a "bye" at home with the Jags now.

12. Washington (3-1): They have one loss and that was on the road against a team that had to convert a 3rd-and-21 to beat them, so that deserves some respect. The Redskins have a legit defense, with two bookend pass-rushers, a great middle linebacker and a hard-hitting safety. Offensively they have a three-headed running game, Santana Moss and a couple decent tight ends. The specter of Rex Grossman looms over it all though.

13. New York Giants (3-2):
Boy did they blow that one against Seattle? I guess it makes up for the game they had no business winning the week before at Arizona. Like their New York neighbors, the Giants have surprisingly struggled to run the ball, putting too much stress on Eli Manning. Their pass-rush keeps on keeping on, but that defense comes and goes. Bills up next, can't lose two straight home games, can they?

14. Cincinnati (3-2):
I respect their defense, even if I don't get how they're doing it. Cedric Benson, A.J. Green and Jermaine Gresham are all talents and rookie Andy Dalton is everything I thought he'd be. Comeback to beat Bills deserves respect and now they get the Colts at home to go to 4-2?

15. New York Jets (2-3): You wanna kill them, but look who they've lost to: at Oakland, at Baltimore, at New England. It's fairly rare in the first place to have three straight road games, but not one twinkie in the bunch? Rex Ryan shipped out malcontent Derrick Mason to the Texans, but until the Jets figure out how to run the ball and stop the run like they used to, they'll be an average team. Looks like a reprieve on Monday night against Miami, but imagine the media crush if they drop that one. Remember, Jason Taylor said Mark Sanchez is worse than Chad Henne.

16. Dallas (2-2): Injuries at receiver and defensive back, but the stats say they should be a top-tier team. Is it all Tony Romo's fault that they're not? No, but it's fun to pretend, right? The good news about their game at New England is virtually nothing could happen that would leave me unhappy outside of a 56-56 tie where both quarterbacks break every single-game passing record in the books.

17. Tennessee (3-2): I finally believe in them and they go lay an egg at Pittsburgh. They might still luck into a division title because of Houston's injuries, but only if Chris Johnson starts playing worth a damn. I know they're stacking the line against him, but Frank Gore and Adrian Peterson have figured it out lately, haven't they? They get a bye to lick their wounds and watch everyone else beat the crap out of one another.

18. Tampa Bay (3-2): Scheduled loss at San Francisco, but 48-3? That's just an embarrassing, immature lack of effort by everyone involved. Losing Gerald McCoy is no excuse to stop tackling. It was shameful how they let the 49ers run student body left, student body right with no impediment like USC. That's not supposed to work in the NFL. Letting Gore get off-tackle runs where he's not touched for 10 yards against eight man fronts seems wonky too. Now they're home against the Saints, which will tell us what the NFC South is all about.

19. Atlanta (2-3): They lose to Green Bay 48-17 in the playoffs and trade pretty much all of their draft and next year's too for Julio Jones to beef up their offense... and then score 14 against the Packers. But hey at least Aaron Rodgers only threw for infinity yards against them instead of the infinity + 5 he had in January, so progress. Now they get Cam Newton in their fast track at home. Good luck with that.

20. Carolina (1-4):
Speaking of which, this seems as good a spot as any for the Panthers. Their offense won't let them get blown out, and eventually they'll play some crap teams, right? As you've no doubt deduced, I'm picking them to upset Atlanta.

21. Minnesota (1-4):
They do everything pretty well except for throwing the ball. I'm not gonna kill them for that. Could totally see them winning at Chicago. Donovan McNabb usually plays well in his hometown.

22. Chicago (2-3): If Michael Vick's offensive line was as bad as Jay Cutler's, he'd voluntarily go back to prison. My word are they awful. The rest of the team though? Meh. That's what Minnesota-Chicago has become: A big bowl of "Meh."

23. Philadelphia (1-4):
If their coach had a brain and if they had some linebackers and if they could tackle and if their receivers would stop carrying the ball like it's a skunk and if their line blocked somebody and if their QB stopped throwing it to the other guys and if their backup QB just shut his yap and if their corners actually ever pressed their receivers and if their defensive coordinator was actually a defensive coordinator; if all that actually happened, then maybe these guys wouldn't suck ass. HUGE game at Washington.

24. Seattle (2-3): Two wins in their last three and a two-point loss in between. Undrafted Doug Baldwin out of Stanford is third among rookies in receptions behind only A.J. Green and Julio Jones, who were both among the top six picks. The Hawks also found Brandon Browner, a corner out of the CFL who's 6-4, 220 and set a franchise record with a 94-yard return against the Giants. Now Tarvaris Jackson rests his strain pectoral and the coaches try to figure out if they're going forward with Clipboard Jesus.

25. Kansas City (2-3): Two game winning streak against two previously winless teams. Not that impressive, but Matt Cassel is on fire. So much easier for a QB to look good when he doesn't have those annoying running backs always asking for the ball. They're on their bye week, not that anyone will notice or care.

26. Cleveland (2-2): They had a week off to get their stuff together, but sounds like there is still dissension between Peyton Hillis and his teammates. No, I don't think this ranking is too low for them. Win at Oakland if you're unhappy.

27. Denver (1-4): I'm rooting for Tim Tebow to go 0-for-90 in the next three games with 40 interceptions, 20 fumbles and 30 sacks. Not because of any ill will I bear him, but rather because I'm morbidly curious how far Skip Bayless could stretch reality to make excuses for him. I'd have to defenestrate my television if Tebow can actually play.

28. Arizona (1-4):
Way to show up on the road, gang. Kevin Kolb is a total spaz in the pocket. Darrell Dockett continues to be one of the most overrated players in the league. Rookie Patrick Peterson, a corner, looks like a safety. Safety Kerry Rhodes has broken his foot. Good times.

29. Jacksonville (1-4):
I can't think about them for more than ten seconds without getting sleepy. Or maybe it's because it's 6:08 a.m. and I haven't slept. Have fun in Pittsburgh, Blaine.

30. Indianapolis (0-5): Finding new and creative ways to lose every week. You'd think they'd stop trying one of these weeks. Blah game at Cincinnati.

31. Miami (0-4):
Well, they haven't been embarrassed yet. As long as they run the ball and keep punting it, they should be in the game with the Jets.

32. St. Louis (0-4):
Dead last in scoring at 11.5 points per game. That's bad. 31st in points allowed at 28.3 per game. That's also bad. Their next three games: at Green Bay, at Dallas, vs. New Orleans. That's bad, bad, and bad. In conclusion: They're bad.

1 comment:

  1. The 49ers are dead last in the league in pass attempts per game. If that isn't hiding, what is?

    Harbaugh is managing his players' strengths and weaknesses brilliantly so far (despite being a crappy interview). Fewest pass atttempts in the league seems to be a big neon sign pointing to where he thinks the weaknesses are.

    ReplyDelete