Friday, November 25, 2011

49ers-Ravens recap: Niners drew short end of the wishbone

It’s not often that a football game is decided with 14:08 to go in the second quarter, but Thursday night’s overhyped affair against the menacing Baltimore Ravens essentially was. Right about the time referee John Parry announced to god and country that an apparent 75-yard touchdown pass from Alex Smith to Ted Ginn was null and void due to a ticky-tack chop block call on Frank Gore, 49ers skipper Jim Harbaugh had to be thinking to himself, “Really? REALLY? The league hasn’t done enough to us in this game, and now you’re making THAT call?”

Harbaugh hinted the whole week that he didn’t have a good feeling in his gut about the game and voiced the “competitive disadvantage” excuse again both after the game and during the next day postmortem conference call. “It’s the truth,” he said. “I’m not whining or complaining about it, but it’s the truth.”

He’s right, obviously. There’s a reason no west coast team has played on Thanksgiving since 1975. It would be one thing to ask if of the 49ers if they had a bye week the Sunday before, but without it the turnaround, having basically two whole days to prepare for the Ravens since Wednesday was wiped out by the travel, is just not enough against a squad as talented across the board as Baltimore. Very few teams outside of Green Bay have a shot in that situation.

The ironic aspect of it is, it was a scheduled “L” attributable solely to the Harbaugh hire. While Harbaugh has helped them win a handful of games they otherwise might not have this season, he was their single biggest liability against Baltimore because of his bloodlines. If the 49ers had hired any other human as their coach – with the possible exception of Harbaugh’s father, Jack – they would not have been asked to play under this circumstance and their trip to Jason Whitlock’s favorite metropolis would’ve been on a regular football Sunday.

The least the league could’ve done for the 49ers would’ve been to let them play at Washington on Sunday instead of two weeks ago, and indeed they did put that request in when the schedule was being made. Since Commissioner Roger Goodell respects his local barista more than 49ers President Jed York, they got boned. So it goes until they start winning some games in January and earning their once-esteemed reputation back.

I wrote during my game preview that the Niners would have to jump on the Ravens early before fatigue sets in to have any chance and that they would look to come out passing early and often with Alex Smith in the shotgun, and what do you know, that was exactly the plan. If that Ginn touchdown counted, all of a sudden the 49ers would've been up 10-3 and it could've been a different ballgame. That call changed everything. The Ravens, thanks to the zebras, took San Francisco's best punch and the Niners didn't have a lot to offer after that.

Frank Gore (14 carries for 39 yards) predictably didn't do much, not against a Baltimore front that came into the game allowing a league-leading 3.3 yards-per-carry and especially not after getting 24 mostly needless carries against Arizona the Sunday prior. Kendall Hunter showed a couple of flashes, but didn't get many opportunities.

The story of the game, aside from that call, was of course the nine sacks Smith absorbed. It was a surprise in the aspect that the Niners came into the game having allowed a respectable 21 sacks in 10 games, and 11 of those in consecutive games against Dallas and Cincinnati. Since replacing 2008 second-round bust Chilo Rachal with Adam Snyder midway through that Bengals game, they'd allowed 10 sacks in 7.5 games.

However, given the scheduling of the game and the opponent involved, the onslaught against Smith really isn't as much of a shock as you would think. I believe Harbaugh had the truth of it when he said about a third of the sacks were bad protection calls against the blitzes the Ravens had (you can argue that's Smith's fault), a third where guys got flat out physically beat (Rachal and Anthony Davis, repeatedly) and a third were Smith's fault for not getting rid of the ball sooner. Again, scheduling plays a huge part in this, and Smith alluded to it after the game. If the 49ers had more time to prepare, they'd have a better game plan for the various zone blitzes the Ravens threw at them. There wouldn't be as many mental mistakes and missed assignments from Smith and the linemen. It all factors into it.

Really, I could even argue Snyder's injury is due, at least in part, to having to play on a short week. It's no secret that he's the worst athlete among the seven offensive linemen the team dresses every week. Snyder gets by because he's smart, he works hard, he studies his ass off and he competes. In short, he's the anti-Rachal, in every respect. Physically though, Snyder is just not built to play twice in five days, and his body gave out on him. Harbaugh can only hope that he'll be ready to go ten days from now and thank his lucky stars that Smith is still in one piece.

Beyond the protections, the lack of preparation time turned this into basically a preseason game as far as game planning, with nothing but basic, vanilla plays out there. I have too much faith in Harbaugh, Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman, and the rest of the coaching staff to believe that in normal circumstances they wouldn't have plays dialed up to counteract the obscene amounts of pressure the Ravens were putting on them. Where were the screens? The misdirections? The draws?

Defensively, it was much the same. The front seven were proud warriors when it came to stopping Ray Rice and the Ravens running game, and refused to allow a touchdown even when Baltimore had 2nd-and-goal from inside the 1-yard-line, but the pass rush was totally nonexistent. It's plain as day that this defense is gassed. Donte Whitner was overpowered by Lee Evans, of all people. NaVorro Bowman didn't have the legs to catch up with Rice on a flare route. Patrick Willis was outflanked by fullback Vonta Leach, a guy he can beat in a race like the roadrunner against Wile E. Coyote (beep beep) under normal circumstances. Even Justin Smith, the team's indefatigable iron-man, tapped out for a couple plays to suck wind on the sidelines. Harbaugh refused to play subs like inside linebacker Larry Grant or those young linemen he's got collecting dust, and you have to wonder what this defense will look like in December.

You look at the calls that Vic Fangio dialed up and it was as vanilla as it gets. He rushed four the whole time, never blitzing once on third down, even though it was clear the front line wasn't breathing on Flacco. The Niners spent a lot of time in zone coverage, which to me suggests fatigue and trying to protect guys from being on islands. There were plays where Baltimore's best receiver, Anquan Boldin, was being covered by Ahmad Brooks. Mistakes like that haven't happened since early in the season. You can't tell me the coaching staff put a lot of time and nuance into the game plan, I'm just not buying it. Flacco converted all six of his third down attempts when he actually passed the ball.

Call me crazy, but for all the feature stories in print and video about Jim Harbaugh's legendary competitiveness, I just don't think winning this game mattered to him as much as people would think. For the first time all season I didn't sense an edge from him going into the game and I found it curious that he was making excuses during the week. I know the hype pointed to this game like it would matter more to Harbaugh to beat his brother than any other game this season, but having observed him all year, I truly don't think he's wired that way. I think he means it when his brother is his best friend and that he doesn't have personal relationships with the other 30 head coaches. Those guys are his "enemies," not his brother. I think Harbaugh is a smart guy and a big picture thinker above all. If there was ever a situation for him to let up, it would be in out of conference game on a short week when he's got a five game lead in his division.

I'm not saying Harbaugh "threw" the game by any means, because he didn't. I'm just pointing out that the coaching staff didn't go out of its way to cram a week's worth of game planning into two days. It just looked bare bones to me on both sides of the ball, all too reminiscent of the previous regime. Once that Ginn touchdown got taken away, there was a collective sense that it wasn't going to be their night.

Going forward, I think the St. Louis Rams and future opponents will pay attention to this game and try to blitz the 49ers back into the stone age. I expect Roman to have plays to counteract that. I also expect Fangio to be a lot more aggressive on his end. Snyder's injury is a concern because there is only so much you can do to cover for Rachal.

Harbaugh's biggest problem is trying to figure out what, if anything, the team can get from Braylon Edwards, who is playing with all the intensity of Randy Moss on the Raiders, jogging through his routes and not fighting for the ball. It's one thing to not be on the same page with Alex Smith on a deep ball -- Smith threw in, Edwards went out -- but quite another to not even try to break up the pass and prevent the turnover. Harbaugh looks befuddled as to who his second receiver should be, as he's constantly shuffling through Edwards, Ginn and Kyle Williams, looking for a solution. Hopefully over the next ten days he'll have a "come to Jesus" talk with Edwards, because at this point there's got to be somebody better on the street.

All in all, 9-2 and pole position for the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye is not a bad spot to be. Way too early to panic just because they lost the toughest game on their sked. If some of the bad trends we've seen the past few weeks don't correct themselves next Sunday against the Rams, then it will be time to ask some serious questions.

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Dominating Mediocrity a Flashback of 49ers Past

How far we've come with the San Francisco 49ers.

As a kid, I grew up reading Ira Miller's game stories and Monday morning report cards in the San Francisco Chronicle. This was during the glorious 80's, so after a few dominant seasons, Miller got spoiled along with the fans and started to expect perfection. He turned into a harsh grader, and I remember all too well how the Niners would cream some poor saps like the then-St. Louis Cardinals or the Atlanta Falcons like 34-13, and in the paper next day Miller would be giving them a "B-" here or a "C+" there. It got to the point where they were so good that it was just impossible to impress.

So imagine my surprise at how quickly the team has turned around its woebegone fortunes. In past seasons they would have had to play darn near perfectly to beat somebody by two touchdowns, but against the hapless Arizona Cardinals they won easily, 23-7, in a game where they played average at best on offense and below par on special teams.

The defense was spectacular, of course, but you knew all along it would be, didn't you? FOX analyst Brian Billick, when he wasn't butchering names left and right, relayed a quote from 49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio that the Niners wouldn't even have to bother disguising their coverages against overmatched Cardinals QB John Skelton because "he can't read them anyway." Fangio had suggested to us earlier in the week that Skelton pretty much has a radar lock on Larry Fitzgerald, so once the Niners took him out of the game with double teams -- as I predicted -- the game got pretty complicated for Skelton, who was just terrible.

The pass rush was still spotty, though better than in the previous game against the New York Giants, and the run defense gave up 80 yards rushing, mostly due to boredom than anything else, but you can't quibble with four turnovers and three interceptions. Patrick Willis continues to make his case for Defensive Player of the Year honors and picked up his first interception and fourth forced fumble of the season on back-to-back Arizona possessions in the first quarter. I would've liked to see young linemen Ricky Jean Francois and Demarcus Dobbs get some playing time in this one, and Larry Grant at linebacker in relief of Willis and NaVorro Bowman, but can't complain too much because the defense was only on the field a little over 15 minutes, so for them it was like having a half off anyway.

What was a little interesting to me is how Shawntae Spencer continues to be stuck in the doghouse. He was activated last Sunday as a precaution because starter Tarell Brown banged up his knee a bit in practice the Friday before -- fourth safety Madieu Williams was scratched in his place -- but he never got into the game at all, even in garbage time. Instead Tramaine Brock got some work as the fourth corner. To see a quality corner like Spencer, who's still in his prime, go from a starter to third-string so quickly, behind a rookie and another guy in Brock who was signed as an undrafted free agent last year, is startling to see and I wonder what he thinks of this "Who's got it better than us?" business.

For that matter, how's Williams feeling these days? He was signed in late July, presumably to be the starting free safety, and a couple days later the Niners snookered him by re-signing Dashon Goldson. Williams had a bad day against Dallas in Week Two when Goldson was out, but played better as a strong safety in relief of Donte Whitner against Cincinnati and Philadelphia. Since both starting safeties returned to full health, however, he's been shoved to the background. A healthy scratch in favor of Colin Jones? That has to sting.

Offensively it was clear what the 49ers intentions were.
My guess? 49ers come out throwing, hellbent for leather, trying to get a 20-point lead so they can rest some starters going into the Ravens game.

If only I could read the rest of the league as well as these guys... anyway, the 49ers had every intention of blowing the Cardinals out early, and heaven knows Arizona was asking for it the way they took care of the ball, but as has been the running theme all year, the 49ers, who otherwise had little difficulty moving the ball in accumulating 431 yards (their second-highest total of the season) and keeping it an NFL regulation game-high 44:16, were dreadful inside the opponent's 30.

Braylon Edwards (three drops) and Vernon Davis certainly weren't any help. Edwards clearly isn't right physically and was for all intents and purposes benched in the second half. Jim Harbaugh was hot after the game about some missed assignments and poor routes in the passing game and made it clear it wasn't Alex Smith who he was focusing his glare on. Smith's first quarter pass in the left corner of the end zone was a bit hard and about six inches high, but certainly a play a receiver like Edwards should make. You have to wonder if he'd even be out there if Joshua Morgan was healthy, but Harbaugh has nobody to blame for that but himself. If he didn't try to run up the score against Tampa Bay, he'd likely still have Morgan's ankle in one piece.

(If that criticism is too harsh, witness the final two series against Arizona, where Harbaugh, with a far slimmer lead than he enjoyed against the Buccaneers, elected to run the ball every play with Smith under center instead of playing rookie Colin Kaepernick and falling for the temptation of "getting him some work." Deny it all you want, but it was a hard lesson learned for the skipper.)

Davis, meanwhile, jumped for reasons only known to him on a slant pass that was aimed at his waist and wound up being knee-level, and was sloppy enough on a corner route that he couldn't keep his second foot in bounds on a deep ball that would've set the team up 1st-and-goal. He redeemed himself with a nice over-the-shoulder grab in the third quarter for his 34th career touchdown, which set a new franchise record for tight ends, passing Brent Jones.

Edwards' slack was picked up by second-year man Kyle Williams, who's shown all year that he can make the most of what limited opportunities he gets. Williams is quicker than fast, and not very big, but he's got good skills after the catch and may have the best hands on the team. Cardinals defensive coordinator Ray Horton foolishly tried using rookie Sam Acho, a converted defensive end (imagine Vic Fangio putting Aldon Smith on a slot receiver) on Williams and I'm sure he found the results anything but "cute." With Smith rapidly losing faith in Edwards, it won't be surprising to see Williams' playing time increase as he works to be the third option behind Michael Crabtree and Davis.

Speaking of Crabtree, how about the way he carved up Patrick Peterson, Arizona's first-round pick? Crab is no burner, but he was slick enough in his routes to get plenty of separation all game and would've had an easy touchdown in the second quarter had not Smith missed too high and far on a pass where Crabtree deked his way open by a good three yards. His highlight, of course, was an early third quarter reception for 29 yards in which he broke three tackles, and all in all it's the healthiest and most determined he's looked all year; close to the No. 1 receiver he was drafted to be. If he can sustain this form, the 49ers will be quite dangerous indeed.

But only if Smith gets more accurate. The last two games have been put squarely on his shoulders and the results were less than spectacular in the red zone. The offensive line protected him brilliantly, the receivers got open by and large, and still you had a throw that was too high, too hard, too wide, too something. Smith is playing well, but he's not playing great, and he knows it as well as anyone. If the 49ers are to challenge Green Bay in the playoffs, he'll need to be close to perfect.

Until then, we'll be left to enjoy blowouts against the crappy NFC West, wondering how it happened that the 49ers started just decimating people despite the red zone blahs.

Thursday's game at Baltimore -- a.k.a the "Harbowl," will offer a good test against one of the two proper teams left on the 49ers schedule, but to me the short rest spoils it. It's almost asking the impossible for the locals to win this one, and Harbaugh has made no secret of it, making more excuses to the media than I've ever heard from him. I think deep down he doesn't expect to win it.

For one thing, the Ravens are even better at taking the run away than his team; averaging a league-leading 3.3 yards allowed per carry. Justin Smith doesn't go into many games as the second-best defensive lineman, but will do so against Baltimore's Haloti Ngata -- whose matchup with Mike Iupati ought to be a doozy.

For another, I'd be pretty nervous about Ed Reed if I'm the Niners. He remains the premier ball-hawk in the game and I can see him baiting Smith into a pick on a seam route to Davis, making it look like the tight end is open when he's not. Or maybe it'll be like that Amari Spievey interception against Detroit, where Smith will be pressured around the edges and throw while moving up in the pocket, causing the ball to sail high right into Reed's mitts.

Mostly I worry about Ray Rice. As a running back alone he's probably the best the 49ers have faced all season, outside of Shady McCoy with the Eagles, but then you add the receiving dimension, the way they use him on screens and check-downs... well we're really going to see what NaVorro Bowman is made of in this one. I can't imagine them winning without him earning a game ball.

If the 49ers are to win, they will need to jump on Baltimore early, before the Ravens catch up to their tricks and the fatigue sets in. I expect Smith to be throwing early and often once more, to Crabtree especially, but also Davis and Delanie Walker. I do not think Frank Gore, who had 24 carries (which was too much by half) will be a factor, especially with rookie fullback Bruce Miller out with a concussion. The 49ers will run to keep the Ravens D honest, maybe pick up some short-yardage stuff and set up play-action plays, but the bread and butter will come with Smith in the shotgun.

The onus will be on the 49ers to build a two score lead by half before the short week and the jet lag and all that hits them. If they can turn the Ravens one-dimensional, if deep safety Dashon Goldson can keep Torrey Smith from killing them, if Bowman can do the job on Rice, if the tackles can block Terrell Suggs and Paul Kruger, and if Carlos Rogers can win his match-up in the slot with Anquan Boldin, the 49ers have a shot.

And even then they'll probably need Ted Ginn to make an impact in the return game and for David Akers to do a lot better than 50 percent.

Does all that sound pessimistic? It should. Don't blame me, I'm just taking my cues from the head coach. If the 49ers get Philadelphia/NY Giants/Tampa Bay Alex Smith, they have a shot. If they get the Detroit/Arizona version, they fly home 9-2 and still in good shape, but with maybe some doubts creeping in about the QB. We'll see.

The picks:

Green Bay at Detroit (+7):
It's en vogue to like the Lions in this game, and maybe if it was a longer road trip for the Pack, I'd bite. The bottom line is I just don't trust Detroit yet, not after they gave up a billion points to the Panthers last week. I don't trust Matthew Stafford to avoid turnovers and I don't trust their special teams to not give up a big play to Randall Cobb. I just see too many scenarios where Aaron Rodgers and Co. get free points instead of the 80-yard drives the 49ers thrive at making opponents try. Packers 38, Lions 24

Miami at Dallas (-7):
I'd LOVE to be wrong, but no, I don't see Reggie Bush and Matt Moore spoiling Thanksgiving in Dallas. The Cowboys offense is going too good right now and will be rightly chastened after nearly losing at Washington last week. Cowboys 27, Dolphins 16

San Francisco at Baltimore (-3):
The Ravens have played up (or down) to their competition all year and are undefeated at home. I don't see a good reason for that to change on a short week with the Niners flying three time zones. I would've been more convincible -- maybe -- if it was a regular Sunday game. Ravens 23, 49ers 17

Carolina at Indianapolis (+4):
Eventually, Cam Newton is gonna have to win a couple ballgames if he wants to win Rookie of the Year, right? Simply avoiding turnovers should be enough to get it done here. Panthers 27, Colts 17

Minnesota at Atlanta (-10):
Minny without Adrian Peterson visiting the most "meh" good team in the NFL? Feel my goosebumps. I've got a good feeling about Toby Gerhart in this one because I'm biased and I like him. (I traded Anthony Dixon for him in "Madden"). Falcons 24, Vikings 17

Cleveland at Cincinnati (-8):
The Bengals are on a two-game slide against the division heavies and need this game to stay in the playoff hunt. The Steelers and Ravens had little difficulty making inroads on their defense, but they should find Colt McCoy more to their liking. Bengals 26, Browns 7

Tampa Bay at Tennessee (-4):
Every time you want to count the Titans out they win, so... Titans 23, Buccaneers 16

Arizona at St. Louis (0):
I think Kevin Kolb is playing. I'm taking the Cardinals anyway. Cardinals 17, Rams 13

Buffalo at NY Jets (-8):
Do you have any idea how unspeakably bad a team has to be to give the Jets eight points right now? Well, the Bills are worse. And they've lost Fred Jackson. Oy vey. Jets 23, Bills 10.

Houston at Jacksonville (+4):
I trust the Texans running backs and defense more than I trust Blaine Gabbert or distrust Matt Leinart. Texans 20, Jaguars 13

Chicago at Oakland (-4):
Darren McFadden is still out and the Raiders receivers are beat up as well. The Bears also have an injury situation you may have heard a thing or two about. Even with Caleb Hanie at the helm, I think the Bears play the smarter ballgame, doing enough of the little things and maybe getting a couple of turnovers for the upset. Chicago 17, Raiders 16

Washington at Seattle (-4):
If the 49ers win and the Seahawks lose, the locals will clinch the NFC West. Well, I already picked against the Niners, so this won't make you happy either. Seahawks 20, Redskins 13

Denver at San Diego (-6):
One coach really doesn't want to win and the other simply coaches like it. Which one applies to Norv Turner and which to John Fox? The beauty is that you have to ask. I wouldn't bet a nickel on this game. Chargers 20, Broncos 10

New England at Philadelphia (+3):
If Vince Young plays, I like the Patriots by 30. If Mike Vick plays, I like Philly by seven. I think Young's playing. Oh, and a big eff you to Wes Welker for taking Monday night's game off against the Chiefs. Patriots 41, Eagles 10.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City (+11):
How is this the Sunday night game? Don't we have flexes for this? I saw enough of Tyler Palko on Monday against New England, and the Steelers actually have a defense. Big Ben could beat these guys with no thumbs. Steelers 30, Chiefs 10

NY Giants at New Orleans (-7):
A crap game on NBC and a good one on ESPN? What is this, bizarro world? Next you're gonna tell me Alex Smith is a top-10 QB and the Niners are a Super Bowl contender (Hey-O). I think the Giants play better when little is expected of them, and it's a homecoming for Eli Manning. Saints 27, Giants 24

The Power Poll:


1. Green Bay (10-0)
2. San Francisco (9-1)
3. Baltimore (7-3)
4. Pittsburgh (7-3)
5. New Orleans (7-3)
6. New England (7-3)
7. Detroit (7-3)
8. New York Giants (6-4)
9. Cincinnati (6-4)
10. Dallas (6-4)
11. Chicago (7-3)
12. Houston (7-3)
13. Oakland (6-4)
14. Atlanta (6-4)
15. Philadelphia (4-6)
16. Tennessee (5-5)
17. Denver (5-5)
18. New York Jets (5-5)
19. Miami (3-7)
20. San Diego (4-6)
21. Tampa Bay (4-6)
22. Seattle (4-6)
23. Washington (3-7)
24. Cleveland (4-6)
25. Buffalo (5-5)
26. Arizona (3-7)
27. Minnesota (2-8)
28. Carolina (2-8)
29. Jacksonville (3-7)
30. Kansas City (4-6)
31. St. Louis (2-8)
32. Indianapolis (0-10)

Friday, November 18, 2011

Offense Arrow Up, Defense Arrow Down for 49ers, a Sunday preview and so much more

The 49ers had a number of heroes against the Giants, some of whom were trumpeted to the rafters and others who went largely unnoticed. Sunday’s 27-20 triumph over New York was a landmark triumph for this team, not only because it finally got the attention of the national media based in the east coast – it was a nationally televised game against the team that plays in the number one media market – but also for the first time they scored in the mid-20’s (and it could’ve been higher) against a respectable defense without Frank Gore contributing heavily.

Make no mistake, the way the Giants played defense against the 49ers will be the norm, rather than the exception, going forward. One good passing game by Alex Smith (and I mean that in terms of yardage, he’s had plenty good games in terms of efficiency) is not going to change how opposing defenses view this team overnight. They’re going to have to prove it again and again. Defenses are gonna stack the box and make it difficult for Gore to run.

The important thing to realize is that this is nothing new. It’s true that Gore had five straight games of 100 yards rushing before the Giants game – where according to my Bodymedia monitor I got more exercise than he did – but all we need to do is go back to the first three games of the season when Gore was averaging a mere 2.5 yards-per-carry and some folks were wondering aloud whether that three-year extension the team gave him was a big mistake. Sure, it’s a lovely thought to think that the running game just up and improved because of the changes at right guard (Adam Snyder replacing Chilo Rachal) and fullback (Bruce Miller replacing Moran Norris), and while those guys have surely had a positive effect, the fact of the matter is the 49ers had the fortune of playing a succession of teams that are terrible at defending the run.

For Philadelphia and Detroit, I’ve written about this before. They play that reckless, gambling, “Wide Nine” defensive front, which is a defense that is hell bent on getting after the passer at the expense of giving up massive running lanes. It’s a defense that, theoretically, one would want to draw up against Green Bay or New England, perhaps even New Orleans. However using it against the 49ers just plays into their hands. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, lost their best run defender in defensive tackle Gerald McCoy early in the game, which severely compromised their defense. You’ll note that they haven’t exactly stopped anybody since the 49ers game. Cleveland, if not the least talented team in the NFL is at least in the top three, while Washington stopped caring a while back.

My point is that except for a four or five game scheduling anomaly in midseason, the way the Giants played the 49ers is hardly new, especially among 4-3 defenses. We saw it for most of the Mike Singletary era and even during Mike Nolan’s term. It will be on Smith to make the practice stop, and honestly I don’t know how many good games in a row he’ll have to have for them to. That being said, I agreed with what Braylon Edwards said during a Wednesday interview session about the 49ers showing in their last game that they could pass from the classic drop back offense and not just out of the play-action or run sets. Obviously Edwards was exaggerating somewhat as Smith has thrown plenty from shotgun in 3rd-and-long, in two-minute drills and in situations when the team has been trailing, but really this was the first time they relied on the passing game for a whole half not because they had to but because they wanted to, which Steve Young basically implored them to do last week on the radio.

Still, it’s worth noting that Smith didn’t complete a pass to starting receivers Braylon Edwards (who wasn’t running well at all) or Michael Crabtree in the last 35 minutes of the game. Really, the stars of the passing game were Delanie Walker and Ted Ginn, despite his disastrous drop that turned into an undeserved interception for Smith. Ginn made a couple of nice catches on the boundary and had a big third down grab early in the game. The 49ers wisely take advantage of defenses playing off Ginn with underneath routes, but you get the feeling that one of these days they’ll uncork a long one to him. What we do know is this group of tight ends and receivers – including Kyle Williams, who has a couple of packages per game – is as deep as the team’s had in ages, even without the injured Joshua Morgan.

Guards Adam Snyder and Mike Iupati both gave up a sack in the game, but otherwise the pass blocking was mostly sharp against a team that came into the game number one in the league in putting the quarterback into the turf. The run blocking looked mostly hopeless when Gore was involved, but I found it curious that Kendall Hunter was able to get off. Did the Giants have fewer in the box against him? No, not really. I think, just like the Cincinnati game, it was simply a matter of him having fresher, quicker legs and being able to find some room that a hobbled Gore could not. Hunter missed a chance of scoring a touchdown a series before he did. He had the whole right side of the field available on a cutback – with Smith as the lead blocker! – but instead he just cut back toward the right guard gap instead of all the way. Snyder redeemed himself for the sack he allowed by pulling very well on the counter play on the next series and fullback Bruce Miller sealed off a linebacker and Hunter had an easy 17-yard score for the winning points.

It’s a credit to the 49ers coaches – especially Running Backs Coach Tom Rathman – to see what was happening and protect Gore from himself in the second half. Giants end Jason Pierre-Paul hyper-extended Gore’s right knee during the second quarter, and as Gore explained afterward, he couldn’t really push off on the leg afterward. The truth of the matter though is he came into the game with a gimpy left ankle, so it’s not like he was feeling spry to begin with. Gore practiced on a limited basis on Thursday and Friday and declared himself ready to go for Sunday’s game, but it would be smart if the coaches sat him or at least really cut down on his workload. There’s another game coming up in four days and at this stage of his career there’s no way Gore can handle 40 carries in five days. Realistically, I’m expecting the carries to be split up something like 12 for Gore, 12 for Hunter and maybe 3 or 4 for Anthony Dixon, but personally I’d give Hunter 20, Dixon 10 and Gore a nice warm seat on the bench.

Defensively the 49ers didn’t play well at all against the Giants. Eli Manning had ample time to throw for the majority of the game and he was brilliant on all but two of his throws. The pass rush was lacking – Aldon Smith didn’t breathe on Eli – and the cornerbacks had a rough day, even Carlos Rogers who had two interceptions in the game. It may have looked like the Giants were picking on rookie Chris Culliver, but really he was getting worked on because of how the Niners were lining up on defense. New York was in their three receiver package most of the game and lined up their best guy, Hakeem Nicks, across from Tarell Brown on the left side. Naturally, Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio wasn’t in love with that matchup and protected Brown as much as he could by doubling Nicks with a safety. Culliver, meanwhile was on an island against Mario Manningham. The fact that the Giants game planned to put Nicks on Brown shows who they the better corner is. Again I ask when the coaches will give Shawntae Spencer a chance.

I’m not sure who gave a good account of themselves against the Giants outside of Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman. Yes, the front seven did a decent job against the run, but that’s nothing new and we take it for granted. Besides, New York was missing Ahmad Bradshaw. Justin Smith had that bat down at the end, but where was he most of the game? The safeties were poor and I have no idea why Dashon Goldson blitzed from 20 yards up the field on that 32-yard touchdown to Nicks in the fourth quarter. How long did he think Manning was going to hold onto the ball? That was a poorly designed blitz.

It’s true that Manning was sharp and that the Niners were their usual brilliant selves in the red zone (3-of-4 in not allowing a touchdown) but overall I think this game was as much of a step backward for the defense as it was a step forward for the offense, reminiscent of the way Tony Romo killed this secondary in the second half and overtime during week two and also of that Eagles game where Michael Vick and his fleet of little people effortlessly blazed down the field between the 20’s time and time again. To me, this is a bad omen should these guys face New York or Dallas again, let alone Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.

On special teams there were a number of standouts. David Akers was a beast again, going 4-of-4 on field goals, including a 52-yarder. He’s now 5-for-5 on kicks of 50 yards or longer for the 49ers after never making more than two in any of his 12 seasons at Philadelphia. Andy Lee averaged 50.7 yards net on his three punts, with each of them gaining at least 46 yards of field position. Lastly, gunner C.J. Spillman drew a holding penalty on Lee’s final punt, which forced the Giants to start their final drive from 20 instead of the 30. That drive crapped out at 70 yards, you’ll notice. The 49ers continue to get attention around the league for Harbaugh, their defense, Frank Gore and Alex Smith’s resurgence, but their special teams continues to be by far their most dominating unit.
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Not buying the Cardinals

Several 49ers, most emphatically tackle Joe Staley, have said that there’s no way this will be a “trap game,” despite the Cardinals 3-6 record and the Thanksgiving “Harbaugh Bowl” at Baltimore just around the corner.

“This is a rivalry game for us,” said Staley. “We’re going to give it our best effort because they’re going to give it their best effort. These teams always give everything they have against each other.”

Well, it’s a noble idea in theory, but I don't know if the Cardinals gave it their best effort in either of their blowout losses to a 6-10 49ers team last year. The 49ers won 27-6 at Arizona on a Monday Night game in late November and had over 260 yards rushing in that one. In the regular season finale at San Francisco, with interim coach Jim Tomsula patrolling the sidelines, they won 38-7, with Alex Smith throwing for 276 yards and two touchdowns.

Yes, I do think the Cardinals will be more competitive in Sunday's game at Candlestick, but let's be clear, this should still be a mismatch. Their offensive line is in shambles and their defensive line doesn't present much of a pass rush. The 49ers should dominate the line of scrimmage. Throw in a double-team against Larry Fitzgerald and make sure there rookie Patrick Peterson doesn't break a big return and there isn't a whole lot else the Cardinals can do.

With Kevin Kolb still ailing, John Skelton is expected to start his third straight game for the Cardinals. He's won his last two starts, completing 41-of-75 passes for 537 yards, with four touchdowns, two interceptions and a 84.1 passer rating.

“He’s got good arm talent,” said Fangio. “This guy can throw the ball. He’s got an easy release. He’s got a strong arm. Kind of reminds me of [Ravens QB Joe] Flacco a little bit with his arm strength and how easy the ball comes out. His feet don’t have to be set. He can still get a lot of steam on the ball. Throws a good deep ball, and in the last couple of weeks he’s fallen in love with Fitzgerald, which is smart on his part. So, I’ve been impressed with the guy.”
We’ll all get a chance to be impressed by him on Sunday, but consider me skeptical.

I continue to think that the 49ers, if they have any plans at all of winning at Baltimore on Thursday, need to rest some of their front line guys. Reserve tackle Alex Boone should play a few series to give starters Joe Staley and Anthony Davis a blow, and backup guard Chilo Rachal can rotate in as well, to give Iupati and Adam Snyder a rest. On defense Larry Grant can sub in to give inside Bowman and Willis a breather, and young linemen Ricky Jean Francois and Demarcus Dobbs can relieve Justin Smith and Ray McDonald.

The 49ers have to be smart here and use their depth. They’ve got a bunch of players who are basically cheerleaders on the sidelines except for special teams plays. It’s about time they were utilized so that the starters can get past this two game stretch in one piece.

Naturally, Harbaugh isn’t subscribing to my theory and even if he was, he wouldn’t tell me. “We’re not saving anything for the swim back,” he responded to my question, which made me think of that dumb Ethan Hawk movie “Gattaca.”

Fangio, meanwhile, revealed a bit more. “We’re treating this like a normal game,” he said, “But if we were to think along those lines, it would be for the second game.”

The Niners taking their lumps and treating the Harbaugh Bowl as a scheduled loss? I don’t see it.
___________________________________________________________________________
The 49ers and Awards

So far Lee is the only 49er leading his position in Pro Bowl voting, which has caused some anger among the fans. The Pro Bowl is the meaningless All-Star game in all of sports and while everyone wants to be named to the team (mostly for incentive reasons) nobody wants to actually play. In fact, now that the game has been moved to the week before the Super Bowl instead of the week after, nobody should want their guys to be playing in that game because it means they’re not at the Big Game. Anyway, the thing to remember is that other team’s fans aren’t going to be objective and care about your players and you’re not going to be objective and care about theirs, so who cares about the voting?

Here are the guys I think deserve to go for the 49ers: Andy Lee, David Akers, Brian Jennings, Blake Costanzo, Patrick Willis, Carlos Rogers and Justin Smith.
Seven’s a pretty good number, right?

Somehow I’m thinking it won’t satisfy you. So let’s look at why the other guys miss the cut.

NaVorro Bowman:
Having a sensational year, but you only get three ILBs. Urlacher and Willis are mortal locks. Will Bowman beat out guys like Desmond Bishop, London Fletcher and James Laurinitis? I doubt it. I think he may get in as an alternate if Bishop plays in the Super Bowl, as expected, but don’t rule out Fletcher taking that last spot. Bowman’s only in his second year, so let him do it again to cement his reputation.

Frank Gore: Only three backs go, and those three should be Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy and Matt Forte.

Alex Smith: No, no, a thousand times no. Rodgers, Manning and then take your pick between Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford, etc. It’s a stat thing, not a “how well you’re playing” thing. Like Bowman, Smith needs to do it more than one year.

Vernon Davis: He didn’t get in last year and his numbers are far worse now. Witten will start, with Jermichael Finley or Tony Gonzalez getting the other spot.

Mike Iupati: I can’t think of good guards at the moment, so maybe he’s got a shot. Still, he’s a young guy so maybe he’s a year away. He’s probably got the best shot of anyone on this list.

While we’re here, let’s cut out the silly chatter about Justin Smith being an MVP candidate. I know Harbaugh said it in his postgame press conference and Peter King had Smith in fourth place on his list, but let’s be serious. First of all, the engraver already put Rodgers’ name on the trophy. Secondly, Smith is not even the MVP of his own defense let alone the league. He’s a great player, a good leader, but let’s dial it down a notch. I can see Willis possibly winning a Defensive Player of the Year award, unless the voters go nuts over DeMarcus Ware or Jason Allen’s sack totals.

Also, no Alex Smith does not deserve to be a Comeback Player of the Year, for the same reason that Giants pitcher Ryan Vogelsong didn’t. For them to be qualified, they would have had to be good at some point in the first place and they weren’t. If Smith were coming back from a disease, I could see it, but otherwise no (although one wag in the media trailer said he “overcame Mike Nolan.”
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Not Giving A Shift

After being penalized twice in previous games for simulating the snap on shifts along the offensive line, the 49ers gained a first down on Sunday by drawing an offside from the Giants during a late Walker shift on a third down play. Harbaugh denied that the team is doing anything out of the ordinary, saying shifts are a regular part of football, but let’s be serious for a second.

We’ve all watched a million games. Even if you can’t describe it verbally, you can tell when something is off. You watch guys play basketball long enough and you can spot the hitch in their release or follow through on a free throw and predict whether it’s going to go in or not. The same thing with a tennis serve. If the movement looks off, then usually it’s going to lead to a fault. The way the 49ers are shifting doesn’t pass the eye test. The movements are sudden, and jerky. There’s a twitch. It looks for all the world like a false start, designed to get the defense to react. Also, the shift comes unusually late in the play clock. Something about it just seems off to you when you see it, and your instincts aren’t wrong.

“It’s cute, and the league has said it's a legal cute play,” said Cardinals defensive coordinator Ray Horton. “So kudos to them for having cute plays in.”
Expect Horton to blow his lid if his guys get drawn off-side on one of these plays and Harbaugh to lose his mind if the flag goes against the Niners. The simple solution would be to just shift normally like everyone else does, but Harbaugh likes having enemies, real or imagined. He’s just wired that way.
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Week 11 Picks:

I had the Jets yesterday, so I’m already off to a great start. I’m not even keeping track anymore, my record is so depressing. I know the Niners and nothing else.

Carolina at Detroit (-7): Lions better treat this game like their season is on the line, because it is. Lions 27, Panthers

Jacksonville at Cleveland (+1):
I love the Jags here, but that's because I love anybody against Cleveland. Jaguars 16, Browns 10

Tampa Bay at Green Bay (-15):
The Bucs have completely fallen apart and Raheem Morris is showing his youth and inexperience with the media. We might have another Jim Mora Jr. situation on our hands. Also: The Packers are very good. Packers 38, Buccaneers 14

Buffalo at Miami (-1):
Doesn't it feel like these teams should have each other's records? Dolphins 23, Bills 16

Oakland at Minnesota (+1):
What a quandary. On one hand the Raiders gave up a billion rushing yards to Denver. On the other, short rest hasn't been good to teams this season. Eh, what the heck, Minny's corners are all hurt. Raiders 24, Vikings 20

Dallas at Washington (+8):
Redskins will try hard just this once, for the sake of next season's ticket sales. Cowboys 23, Redskins 17

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-7):
A.J. Green out for Cincy, Ray Lewis out for Baltimore. Bigger loss for the Bengals. Ravens 23, Bengals 13

Seattle at St. Louis (-3):
I believe the Seahawks entire offensive line went on IR this week. That can't be good. Rams 17, Seahawks 10

Arizona at San Francisco (-10):
My guess? 49ers come out throwing, hellbent for leather, trying to get a 20-point lead so they can rest some starters going into the Ravens game. 49ers 30, Cardinals 17

Tennessee at Atlanta (-7):
Is it me or do the Titans either get blown out or win outright? An upset pick because why not? Titans 23, Falcons 20

San Diego at Chicago (-4):
The commish of my fantasy league offered me a trade of Ryan Matthews for Shonn Greene hours before Thursday's game, which I happily accepted. Greene got injured three carries into the ballgame. What the football gods have taken away from the team I root for, they've generously bestowed upon my fantasy team. Bears 30, Chargers 23

Philadelphia at NY Giants (-6):
I've got the solution to the Eagles problems. Fire Andy Reid and defensive coordinator Juan Castillo. Hire offensive coordinator Marty Morhinweg as the new coach and Reid as the new defensive coordinator. Boom. You're welcome. Giants 27, Eagles 13

Kansas City at New England (-15):
Pats should start Brian Hoyer just to be sporting. Another classic tilt for ESPN. Patriots 41, Chiefs 3
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Power Poll:


1. Green Bay (9-0)
2. San Francisco (8-1)
3. New York Giants (6-3)
4. Baltimore (6-3)
5. New Orleans (7-3)
6. Houston (7-3)
7. Pittsburgh (6-3)
8. New England (6-3)
9. Chicago (6-3)
10. Cincinnati (6-3)
11. Detroit (6-3)
12. Dallas (5-4)
13. Oakland (5-4)
14. Atlanta (5-4)
15. Tennessee (5-4)
16. San Diego (4-5)
17. Denver (5-5)
18. NY Jets (5-5)
19. Buffalo (5-4)
20. Tampa Bay (4-5)
21. Miami (2-7)
22. Arizona (3-6)
23. Jacksonville (3-6)
24. Seattle (3-6)
25. Minnesota (2-7)
26. Carolina (2-7)
27. Washington (3-6)
28. St. Louis (2-7)
29. Cleveland (3-6)
30. Kansas City (4-5)
31. Indianapolis (0-10)
4,582,593. Philadelphia (3-6)

Friday, November 11, 2011

Time To Change The Narrative With Smith; Week 10 Picks

There's a saying that goes "Opinions are like assholes -- everyone has one, and they all stink."

A peculiarly funky aroma has been associated with San Francisco 49ers quarterback Alex Smith for some, and no matter how much he does to wipe away the past and wash his hands of it, that shitty smell won't escape him in the eyes of critics.

Steve Young, the quarterback here a generation ago, is fond of saying that "perception is reality," and in the NFL the perception, by and large is that the 7-1 Niners have been winning in spite of Smith rather than because of him. It doesn't matter if you tune in to east coast-based ESPN or the NFL Network out of Los Angeles or any point in between. The 49ers are thought of a team with a ferocious defense, a physical running game, a brilliant coach and a liability under center.

"I think (49ers coach Jim) Harbaugh is doing as good a job as there is in this league with what he has," remarked Greg Cosell, an analyst with NFL Films, during an interview with KNBR 680, the local sportstalk monolith. "And you know how I feel about Alex Smith. It’s not personal knock on Alex Smith. Why do you think Jim Harbaugh is doing what he’s doing? He’s telling you –- I don’t have to tell you –- he’s telling you what he thinks of Alex Smith. He’s managing him."

Cosell is alluding to the fact that the 49ers are 30th in the league in passing yards and 32nd -- dead last -- in pass attempts. Despite playing virtually every snap through eight games, Smith is not on pace to pass for even 3,000 yards in an age where 4,000 is ho-hum and some of his contemporaries are threatening to eclipse 5,000. In their most recent game, a 19-11 win at Washington, Smith completed 17-of-24 passes for 200 yards -- and that was his second most prolific game of the season as far as yardage was concerned.

For example of how those numbers resonate with people, here are a couple of sections from Lowell Cohn's column after that game in the Santa Rosa Press Democrat:

Myth: Rookie coach Jim Harbaugh has discovered and unleashed the essential Alex Smith, the great college player taken first in the draft.

So far, so good. It is a myth that Smith has improved leaps and bounds under Harbaugh's tutelage. When it comes to 49ers who've taken a gigantic step forward in 2011 he's well behind guys like Mike Iupati, NaVorro Bowman, Anthony Davis, Dashon Goldson, Ray McDonald, Adam Snyder, Delanie Walker and Ahmad Brooks. Few seem to remember that Smith combined for eight touchdown passes to one interception over his final six appearances in 2010 and that included in that stretch was a game against the Seattle Seahawks on Dec. 12 where he posted the highest rating (130.9) of his career. So Cohn is technically right here, in an ironic sense.

Then he goes off the rails...

That is a myth — although it's a charming myth. If you believe it, you are not watching the 49ers through the lens of reality. Smith has a high completion percentage and a good passer rating. For that, he deserves a hallelujah. But his numbers, game by game, are unassuming and small. You might even say he has the numbers of a losing quarterback.

Smith is fifth in completion percentage at 64.1. The combined won-loss records of the four passers ahead of him (Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Ryan Fitzpatrick) and the one behind (Ben Roethlisberger) is 30-12.

Smith is sixth in passer rating at 97.3. The combined won-loss records of the five passers ahead of him (Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Matthew Stafford and Eli Manning) and the three behind him (Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub and Fitzpatrick) is 48-19.

I'd say Smith has the numbers of a winning quarterback.

Please don't go into a conniption about that last sentence. Smith is playing well and deserves credit. But he is not Aaron Rodgers and he won't be. In Sunday's game, he threw for 200 yards, a mere pittance. Redskins quarterback John Beck, a real loser, threw for 254 yards. Beck threw one TD pass and so did Smith. Beck completed 30 passes and Smith completed a modest 17.

While this paragraph might suggest otherwise, no, Lowell Cohn does not play fantasy football. He is judging quarterback play through the prism of completions and yards, which is akin to judging a baseball player by batting average and RBIs. Beck had nearly twice as many attempts (47) to Smith's 24 in the game and averaged 5.4 yards-per-attempt to Smith's 8.3. Cohn also neglects to mention that Beck's touchdown pass came with 1:10 left and the 49ers nursing a 19-3 lead, but I suppose in his warped view this was an indication that he was more "clutch" than Smith by virtue of having done it late in the game.

Let's skip to the end...

Harbaugh is praising Smith for certain limited virtues: grit, smarts, and for throwing a good pass when called upon. He is not praising Smith for being a game-winner. He is praising him for not being a game-loser. This is a large step forward from previous seasons, but it also expresses Smith's limitations — which still exist.

Ah, there it is. Smith is David Eckstein.

How one person could view things like the 49ers defense and Frank Gore as assets, Cohn views them as limitations that make it difficult to build up the ethos of 49ers quarterback as conquering hero. It's been a few years, so he probably has difficulty remembering that those Bill Walsh/Joe Montana teams ran it more than they passed it and that Montana averaged a bit less than the 532 passing yards and seven touchdowns to Jerry Rice per game that are no doubt running on a perpetual loop inside Cohn's venerable brain.

That's not to compare Smith to Montana, mind you, but even in today's pass-happy NFL, the fact remains that quarterbacks who chuck it all over the yard are the ones who have to. Rodgers, Brady, Manning, Brees, they'd all swap Gore for their running backs in a second if they could, and that goes double for the 49ers defense. I wonder if Cohn's noticed the drop in Schaub's numbers for the Texans. Houston's got a sensational running game and a much-improved defense, so they're not throwing it nearly as much. The Texans are 6-3. I'm guessing Cohn would look at the stats and conclude Schaub was a much better player last year.

49ers offensive coordinator Greg Roman was mystified that the topic of Smith's passing yards was even an issue when he was asked about it on Thursday.

"When you’re up, you’re not going to throw as much, right? And your yards per carry aren’t going to be as high because you’re facing loaded defenses and your defensive stats will probably be down, so to speak, because the other team’s been throwing it around. The only stat that matters is winning, everything else is statistical analysis and information gathering."

Smith has had over 30 pass attempts three times this season. In a completely shocking coincidence, all three were games in which the 49ers were trailing in the fourth quarter. He also happened to lead comeback wins, on the road, in all three, but why should anybody care about or appreciate that when he didn't even throw for 300 yards in any of those games, right?

"When you’re a score or two scores ahead in the second half, especially in the fourth quarter, you would tend to run the ball more," Harbaugh explained. "That could be an indication of things going well."

Harbaugh also came to his quarterback's defense on Wednesday, yet managed to rip off three consecutive sentences that were either flat out lies or staggeringly wrong statements just the same.

"I think people that know football and understand the game appreciate Alex Smith as a very talented quarterback," he said.

Unless Harbaugh believes that the only people who "know football and understand the game" reside in the 49ers coaching offices -- and don't put it past him -- that's wrong.

"He's every bit the elite quarterback as there is playing in the game right now."

Bit of a stretch.

"(I) appreciate all the talent that he has and what he brings to our team."

The truth is you could stand to appreciate it a bit more, coach, by occasionally calling pass plays inside the red zone with a lead and giving Smith's critics ammunition.

The Niners face the 6-2 New York Giants on Sunday in a game that will pit Smith, the third-rated fourth quarter passer in the NFL, against Manning, who's first in that category and the author of four fourth quarterback comebacks, including last week's dazzler at New England. Of course Smith will be less concerned with Manning and more so about a Giants defense that's tops in the NFL with 28 sacks, led by Jason Pierre-Paul (9.5) and Osi Umenyiora (6.0). End Justin Tuck has contributed but two of those 28 quarterback take downs, but he too chimed in with his opinion on Smith.

"He's a guy who they're trying to keep out of position to win the football game," Tuck said. "Obviously, with a back like Frank Gore and the O-Line keeping them in third-and-short situations and even if it's third-and-6 or 7, they still feel that they can pick it up running. I think they're asking Alex not to lose the game. He's playing decent with 10 touchdowns and two picks. He's not putting (their) defense in bad situations. If they get in field-goal range, they're going to run the ball and make sure they come away with some points. If they're not, they are going to run the ball and make sure they punt to put their defense in good positions to stop the offense."

Judging by those statements it's a wonder Harbaugh ever lets Smith pass the ball at all. Still, regardless of how many games he's won or how efficient he's been, most critics won't be sated until Smith slices an opposing secondary to ribbons (you know, again, since that first time against Philadelphia didn't count) and he does it over and over against quality competition. Basically he has to out-duel a star quarterback while Gore and the defense have off days.

Young, the first 49ers quarterback who any of us can remember playing with crappy backs and worse defenses said in an interview with that same sports talk monolith that it couldn't hurt to experiment.

"Offensively, if we’re actually going to threaten –- and we might as well, we’re 7-1, let’s go deep! Let’s do it! –- at some point as we have some games to, not waste, but some games to toy a little bit, not toy, what’s the word, we have games that we have to really push the envelope, let’s do it offensively, let’s throw the ball 40 times just once, just to see how it goes. Let’s go no huddle. Let’s go win it with the passing game."

Like just about every opponent they've played, the Giants are better in pass defense (19th) than stopping the run (24th). They like to stay in their "big nickel" package with three safeties and used it frequently last week against the Patriots even when New England went with the type of jumbo formations Harbaugh favors with extra linemen and multiple tight ends. Logic says the 49ers would be well off continuing to do what's been working and pound Gore early and often.

However, Frank the Tank has a gimpy left ankle and won't be 100 percent. Receiver Hakeem Nicks will be back for the Giants -- and running back Ahmad Bradshaw won't be -- suggesting that Manning will have a good day passing the rock and putting up some points. I dare say the locals will have to score well in the 20's to come out on top in this game, so Smith very well may have to put it up 30, 35 times. If he does, and the 49ers prevail, in a national game on Fox that will be seen by all the pundits back east, then maybe Smith will change some opinions.

Which will still stink, of course.

The Picks

Arizona at Philadelphia (0):
The line is even because nobody is sure of Kevin Kolb's status. This feels like cheating, but I need all the help I can get. Eagles 27, Cardinals 17. **FIVE POINT SPECIAL**

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (+3):
I'm feeling a big game from Maurice Jones-Drew here. Jaguars 23, Colts 9 **FOUR POINT SPECIAL**

New Orleans at Atlanta (+1):
I do not trust the Saints on the road, but hopefully I'm wrong and they win in a shoot-out. Falcons 24, Saints 20

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+3):
I know the Steelers will be grumpy, but I believe in Andy Dalton for now. Bengals 20, Steelers 17

St. Louis at Cleveland (-3):
I like Joshua Cribbs against that slooow secondary. Sure, why not? Browns 24, Rams 17

Buffalo at Dallas (-6):
Ryan Fitzpatrick can't stink it up twice in a row, can he? Bills 27, Cowboys 24

Denver at Kansas City (-4):
I can see either team winning by 30. Chiefs 30, Broncos 10

Washington at Miami (-4):
Reggie Bush is on fire. I don't know what to do with that information. Dolphins 23, Redskins 13

Houston at Tampa Bay (+4):
I like the Texans running game against a Bucs defense missing Gerald McCoy. Texans 27, Buccaneers 20

Tennessee at Carolina (-4):
Cam Newton is gonna have a big game here, I'm guessing. Panthers 30, Titans 23

Baltimore at Seattle (+7):
God help me Flacco, you better not crap the bed. Ravens 26, Seahawks 10 **TWO POINT SPECIAL**

Detroit at Chicago (-3):
I'm starting to buy the Bears, but I think the Lions match up well with them. Which means I have no point. Lions 24, Bears 20

New York Giants at San Francisco (-3):
In the interest of full disclosure, would've picked the Giants if Bradshaw was healthy. 49ers 26, Giants 21

New England at New York Jets (-1):
I love the Jets in this game, because I'm biased and insane. Jets 27, Patriots 20 **THREE POINT SPECIAL**

Minnesota at Green Bay (-14):
Too... many... points. Packers 30, Vikings 20

Last week's W-L: 8-6
Season W-L: 81-49
Week 9 Vs. Spread: 8-6
Season Vs. Spread: 52-71-7
Week 9 +/- Points (All games count as one point unless specified): 12
Season +/- Points: -16

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Week 10 Power Poll

Week 10 Power Poll:

1. Green Bay (8-0):
I hear and read the arguments for why the Packers defense will be the death of them, and these theories could very well be valid. However, I look at them like a supply and demand graph from Econ 101. You have to supply a certain amount of defense and demand that your offense be able to keep up. So far, no team has been able to make those two points converge on Green Bay's level, and I'm dubious that any will, especially when you factor that Packers defense, which doesn't often stop anyone, does force turnovers and sometimes even score on those turnovers. Then you factor in Randall Cobb as a return man, and the margin of error shrinks even more. But hey, good luck to the Vikes on Sunday.

2. New York Giants (6-2):
I'd say Sunday's win at Foxboro made up for the loss to the Seahawks and the near-loss to Miami, wouldn't you? They beat the Pats on the road without their best receiver (Hakeem Nicks), their best runner (Ahmad Bradshaw) and center David Baas. They held Tom Brady and Co. to 20 points, which doesn't bode well for the 49ers considerably weaker offense on Sunday.

3. San Francisco (7-1):
Then again, the 49ers have far more defensive pop than the Patriots do. We have a legit showdown on the horizon for the NFC's second best team and I couldn't be more excited. Frank Gore's ankle is a concern, but here's a dirty secret... the game's gonna come down to which quarterback plays better.

4. Baltimore (6-2):
How big was that 92-yard drive to beat the Steelers at Pittsburgh for Joe Flacco? Impossible to know at the moment. However what I do know is I like his chances to beat them (or the Jets, Patriots, whomever) in January more at M&T Bank Stadium than on the road and that win gave Baltimore the inside track for home field. Do I trust them at Seattle on Sunday? Not even a little bit.

5. Detroit (6-2):
Ndamukong Suh spent a part of his bye week meeting with Commissioner Roger Goodell on what constitutes a dirty hit and what doesn't. I think flying all the way to Goodell's New York offices was a waste of time, at least as far as this week's opponent, the Bears are concerned, since Chicago has apparently decided to not allow their quarterback to be touched anymore (not that I'm bitter). The Lions are 4-0 on the road, but none of the opponents are over .500.

6. New York Jets (5-3):
Winners of three in a row to get back on track after a three game slide, the Jets are starting to look awfully like the most complete team in the AFC East. Their pass defense is unquestionably the best in the land, but questions persist about the rest of the operation. The Pats are coming to town woozy and teetering, and a decisive loss could really have them questioning themselves. Sanchez had a couple foolish throws against Buffalo in the first half that make me wonder though.

7. Pittsburgh (5-3):
Sunday's loss might have been a different story if they had all their linebackers healthy, but that's woulda-coulda-shoulda. The secondary is still a weakness, more so than their offensive tackles. Why were they more effective against New England than Baltimore? Easy. Patriots have no speed. They go on the road to take on the upstart Bengals on Sunday. Drop that one and all of a sudden the playoffs aren't a given.

8. New Orleans (6-3):
I'd hate to think in what dire straights they'd be without Darren Sproles, who very well might be their MVP through nine games. Run defense? Eh. Secondary? Even worse. Offensive line? Inconsistent. Pass rush? Lacking. The Saints, Falcons and Bucs all seem incapable of winning a road game against each other (or really anyone else worth a damn) which doesn't bode well for a New Orleans outfit that must be exhausted by now, as they're one of four teams who haven't had their bye yet.

9. Chicago (5-3):
I promised the Bears a major boost in the poll if they upset the Birds and I'm a man of my word at least a third of the time. If they keep protecting Jay Cutler like they've been the past couple games, Chicago will be a very tough out, because it's not like there are many questions elsewhere. The return of Earl Bennett gives them another weapon on the boundary. The Lions game should be a gauge of their true level.

10. Cincinnati (6-2): Coming back from a 17-7 road deficit is impressive and rookie Andy Dalton had a career-high three touchdown passes. Still, for all that Dalton poise and A.J. Green acrobatics and defensive toughness, who have these guys beaten? Four games with the AFC North heavies await, starting with Sunday's home tilt against a grouchy Steelers bunch.

11. Houston (6-3): Another six-win squad to whom we could ask the "who'd they beat?" question, except the Texans at least have a home win against Pittsburgh to their credit. This has quietly become a running team, with Matt Schaub just along for the ride, so think how dangerous they'll be once Andre Johnson returns. Somehow they're tops in defense without Mario Williams, and there aren't many heavies left on their schedule. A sneaky-good game on Sunday at Tampa, against a Bucs team that needs it much more than they do.

12. Buffalo (5-3):
They're here solely by the virtue of having beaten New England earlier in the year, but the Jets may have given everyone else a formula on how to beat them by flooding the short zones and forcing Ryan Fitzpatrick to beat them deep. However, not everyone has the secondary to make that strategy work, nor the front seven to keep Fred Jackson in check. They travel to Jerry World on Sunday and a loss would just about sink either team. Another good game in a schedule full of them.

13. New England (5-3):
Just like the Bills got exposed last week, people have figured out how to play New England for a while now. Four man rush, crowd the short stuff, make them go long. Their fastest competent receiver is a tight end (sounds familiar). They've released Albert Haynesworth and Chad Ochocinco (five targets, zero receptions last week) doesn't figure to last much longer. Their defense couldn't stop a Giants team that was missing Bradshaw and Nicks. Sunday's game at the Jets might be their Alamo.

14. Atlanta (5-3): Coming off a two week bye (they blasted Indy on Sunday), the Falcons now have to prove their mettle against the Saints at home. Lose this one and repeating as NFC South champs -- a division where nobody ever seems to win in consecutive years -- will be very difficult. The offense has all its weapons back, but the defense will be a bit more challenged by Drew Brees than they were by Curtis Painter.

15. Tampa Bay (4-4): About as useful on the road as a pet cat, and just as likely to piss themselves rotten. Slowly but surely their passing game is coming together, but their offense has lost its glue in do-everything back Earnest Graham. Defensively, Gerald McCoy is out for the year, which doesn't bode well against the Texans running game on Sunday.

16. Dallas (4-4): At this point there's little question that DeMarco Murray has won the starting job, even if he's challenged in the pass game. However Miles Austin re-injured his hamstring and he'll be out 2-4 weeks and questions persist about Dez Bryant's commitment. On the other side of the ball, they haven't fared well against teams than can pass it, so it's entire possible that the Bills could submarine them.

**THE LIGHTNING ROUND**

17. Kansas City (4-4):
What the eff was that against the winless Dolphins at home? Embarrassing on all fronts. I think right now the winner of this division would be a +7 in their home playoff game (+3 if it's San Diego). They'll either beat the Broncos by three touchdowns or lose by 30, with nothing in between.

18. San Diego (4-4): Despite the three interceptions by Philip Rivers against Green Bay -- two returned for touchdowns -- I think he actually made progress last week, putting up 38 against the defending champs. Most offenses they face won't be half as good as Green Bay's. It's still a very winnable AFC West and they have a huge advantage getting the home game against Oakland (without Darren McFadden) on the short week on Thursday.

19. Tennessee (4-4): They can beat the teams below them and are no threat whatsoever to the ones above them. The perfect #19 team. Chris Johnson and DeAngelo Williams can commiserate over their terrible seasons together.

20. Oakland (4-4): Six interceptions in six quarters for Carson Palmer. BEST. TRADE. EVER. Although I will admit his arm didn't look all that weak on Sunday. If they can somehow pull off a road win at San Diego on Thursday they'll be no worse than tied for first in the division. Unfortunately, they're kinda terrible on defense.

21. Denver (3-5): I like Tim Tebow's chances of beating almost anybody as long as the Broncos can run for 300 yards per game and snatch three interceptions on defense. Can they win at KC? Who the hell knows?

22. Minnesota (2-6): They played the Packers as close as anybody so far this year, but that first game was at home. Now they're in Lambeau and the Packers have a couple of games of rookie Christian Ponder on film.

23. Carolina (2-6): Will Cam Newton win Rookie of the Year? Yes. Should he? Not if Andy Dalton takes the Bengals to the playoffs. Eventually Newton has to win some games, especially against mediocre teams like Tennessee.

24. Jacksonville (2-6): Blaine Gabbert! Curtis Painter! It's Jags vs. Colts on CBS! No seriously if the Colts can't win this one, then 0-16 is all but assured. I've traded for Maurice Jones-Drew, so I'm hoping for 45-0, Jags.

25. Cleveland (3-5): When I think of Madden Curse, I usually picture myself flinging a controller at the wall after throwing another interception against a bud, but Peyton Hillis has been in a funk all season over his contract and is in seemingly no rush to return from his hamstring injury. Now this blah bunch plays the Rams in a game you'd have to pay me well into triple figures to watch, much less cover.

26. Washington (3-5): They might have had a shot against the Niners on Sunday if only they threw it Roy Helu 30 more times. HUUUUUGE game at Miami on Sunday. Nah, just kidding, nobody cares.

27. Arizona (2-6):
Patrick Peterson! As a punt returner, he's sensational. As a corner, he's a sensational punt returner. Will Kevin Kolb play at Philly on Sunday or is he yella?

28. Miami (1-7): I wonder if Vernon Davis gave his brother a lecture or two over the phone this week. I also wonder if the Dolphins didn't screw themselves for the next decade with that needless win at Kansas City. Foolish pride.

29. Seattle (2-6):
I think the Ravens could beat them simply by running the ball every down, punting when need be and letting their defense force turnovers. This is a bad team.

30. St. Louis (1-7):
1-1 with A.J. Feeley starting, 0-6 with Sam Bradford. Quarterback controversy? At what point does Steve Spagnuolo challenge his young QB to play better? Winnable game for Bradford against his Big-12 rival Colt McCoy at Cleveland.

31. Indianapolis (0-9):
Either their owner is just a shameless pathological liar on Twitter, or he's a crazy person. I feel sorry for everyone who has to cover that Jags game coming up.

32. Philadelphia (3-5): Idiots. Soft, pathetic, clueless choking dogs. AAAAAARGH.

Monday, November 7, 2011

C+ Is Good Enough, Some Game Balls and My Apparent Love of "Low-Hanging Fruit"

Here’s how good the 49ers are in 2011 – they can play a “C+” game, on the road, and still dominate the first 57 minutes and win comfortably.

Did any facet of their operation thrill you during yesterday’s 19-11 win at FedExField over the injury decimated and far too Shanahanned Washington [insert offensive racial euphemism here]?

On offense there were ill-timed penalties that turned an early 3rd-and-1 into a 3rd-and-6 and turned a second half 4th-and-1 where they appeared set to go for it into a 4th-and-6 and another David Akers field goal. There were drops by Frank Gore and Vernon Davis that ruined drives and a bad miss by Alex Smith on third down when he could’ve hit a wide open Gore on a rollout. The Niners converted 3-of-12 third downs and were 0-for-2 in the red zone. Several times plays appeared to come to Smith too late, forcing him to waste time outs and reminding us of the bad old Mike Singletary days.

Defensively they were sensational as always against the run, and after two or three productive carries by Washington rookie Roy Helu, he got nothing the rest of the way. It’s gotten to the point where you wonder why people even bother ever calling a running play against the Niners. It’s a waste of a down, akin to turning a 49ers defensive series into the CFL, where the opposing offense only has two plays and then the punt. However, run defense aside – the locals still haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown all season and haven’t had anybody run for 100 on them in 30 games – it wasn’t a dominating performance by any means.

Patrick Willis was amazing as always, but neither of his forced fumbles on Helu came on a ferocious hit or a powerful strip. Helu just wasn’t securing the ball high-and-tight (think Jeremy Maclin) and “P-Willie” did what he does because he’s a future Hall-of-Famer. Dashon Goldson had a fabulous break on a ball to snatch his second interception in as many games, but let’s face it, it’s not like John Beck has a cannon.

To me, the disappointing aspect of the defense, and maybe I’m picking nits here, was the pass rush, or lack thereof. Ahmad Brooks had the only sack the Niners had, out of 51 Beck drop-backs. Beck attempted 47 passes and scrambled for gains on four other occasions when the pocket broke down on him. Far too often, he had all day back there, especially in play-action situations. It was a credit to the secondary (and an indictment of Beck) that he only had 254 yards on his 30 completions and had to settle for so many check-downs to Helu, but that was the same Washington o-line that gave up 10 sacks to Buffalo last week. Against a better QB and better receivers – such as the ones they’ll face next Sunday – that kind of time in the pocket portends bad things.

Even on special teams, Akers was a perfect 4-for-4, including a 52-yarder; and Brad Seely’s coverage units were solid as always led by Blake Costanzo and C.J. Spillman, but Andy Lee dumped two of his five punts into the end zone and Ted Ginn had a quiet day in the return game.

What I liked about the operation on offense is that Gore wasn’t overtaxed and that Harbaugh got everyone involved, whether it was Bruce Miller or Kendall Hunter or Kyle Williams or Ginn. There were personnel packages aplenty and formations galore. Smith completed passes to eight different receivers and was as sharp (70.8%) as he’s been any game since the season-opener, when he dinked-and-dunked for 124 yards on 15-of-20 against Seattle.

My concern is that at times these guys are too clever by half. You don’t need nose tackle Isaac Sopoaga out there to convert every 3rd-and-1. You don’t always need seven linemen or multiple shifts or this guy motioning and that guy reporting as an eligible receiver. Trickery is fine and good on 1st-and-10 against somebody worthwhile. On 3rd-and-inches how about you just do a QB sneak right behind Mike Iupati’s big derriere and see what happens?

Then there are the red zone issues. At some point Harbaugh will have to give the other team’s run defense some credit. There’s a reason the 49ers haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown all season. It’s not easy to jam it in there in close quarters when there isn’t as much field to defend. It really is easier to pass it in. If it’s a simple matter of saving your “good” red zone plays for the good teams when you’re gonna need them, that’s one thing, but eventually Harbaugh will have to trust that the quarterback who’s been so careful with the ball for him all season will be that same quarterback inside the 10-yard-line. In fact, Smith’s history is that he’s been better in those situations than he is normally. Harbaugh has let Smith pass it in the red zone in games they’ve trailed, but not nearly as much as when they’re playing from ahead. Until that changes, this team will continue to lack that killer instinct.

I must stress that I don’t think Harbaugh coaching this way has any reflection on what he thinks of Smith as a passer. I’m quite aware that the national perception – and that of some local columnists – is that he’s “hiding,” “protecting,” or trying to win in spite of Smith, but that’s not how I’m reading the situation at all. I just think Harbaugh is naturally a run-first coach and conservative by nature and that trying to pound it in fits in with his whole macho persona and tutelage under Bo Schembechler. Still, by-and-large, running the ball up the gut will lead to more Akers field goals than not. I have a suspicion that the Giants will score more than 11 points, so maybe this will be the week that Harbaugh puts the game more in Smith’s hands, especially with Gore gimpy with a bum left ankle.
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Reason Why Jim Harbaugh Is Difficult To Work With – No. 618


Toward the end of his press conference, Harbaugh, perhaps annoyed that no one asked him a special teams question, decided to praise the work of C.J. Spillman for occupying numerous Washington’s blockers and Tramaine Brock for blocking in coverage. Then he said this, about Akers:

“Another four-for-four in the field goals. Now I see you nodding your heads, you like that low-hanging fruit don’t you? ‘Oh four-for-four, that’s a statistic we can mark.’”

That’s right coach. None of us understand a darn thing about football beyond the surface statistics. We’re all total laymen who don’t even watch the games.
Of course, whenever anybody asks Harbaugh an actual football question, such as “what’s the difference in responsibilities between your two safeties,” or “Can you give an example of the difference in techniques the inside linebackers have in Vic Fangio’s 3-4 defense versus Greg Manusky’s defense?” all we ever get is “I’m not going to get into the scheme.”

Eventually the way the NFL is going, independent media will be eliminated altogether and the league will just let team employees disseminate information to the public. Unfortunately, guys like Rex Ryan are the exception in this profession, not the rule. To Harbaugh’s credit, the better you are at your job, the less any of this other stuff matters. Thousands of Giants fans – including myself – cheered Barry Bonds everyday without ever thinking of he treated the beat writers the night before, and we were perfectly right to do so. Harbaugh deserves all the cheers he’s getting as well.
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Game Balls:

Ricky Jean Francois
– made his second start of the season and first ever start at defensive end, in place of the injured Ray McDonald. I admit that before this season that I didn’t think much of all as Jean Francois as an NFL player. I loved him as a person, of course, as does just about anybody who interacts with him, but I thought for the most part that when he did see action on the field, that he looked like one would expect a former 7th-round pick to look. However, Jean Francois has been much better at holding the point this season and I thought he had a great game on the nose against Tampa when he starred in place of Isaac Sopoaga.

Yesterday he wasn’t quite as good, but it was obvious that Washington was targeting him and running to his direction early on. Jean Francois said he got some tips from Sopoaga and linemate Justin Smith on the sidelines and after that the running game went pffft. I give him credit for being versatile enough to not just play end on the run downs, but also to be able to take over McDonald’s role in the nickel and do his part as a pass rusher as well. It’s not easy to go from a reserve to an every down player and Jean Francois played just about every snap on defense from what I saw.

Dashon Goldson: In the offseason I openly wondered which Goldson we’ve seen is the real one – the 2009 version or the 2010 version? Well, through six games – he missed the first two with a knee injury – Goldson’s play, while not as consistently spectacular as we saw two years ago, has definitely leaned closer in that direction than last season’s, which saw him get almost no interest in the free agent market. The 49ers free safety is back to his playmaking ways, and has been involved in a turnover in four of the last five games, including yesterday’s interception. He’s always been a ferocious hitter, but if he continues to be a ball hawk, the 49ers will have to shell out the bucks to re-sign him.

Bruce Miller: The 30-yard pass he caught for a touchdown effortlessly in the second quarter gives you a good idea of why Miller, a defensive end at UCF, was drafted to be a fullback. Good coaching can teach a kid to block, if he’s smart enough and strong enough and willing to do it. Coaches can’t teach Moran Norris to run fast or catch. Running backs coach Tom Rathman pointed out that Miller’s blocking game still has more to do with angles and leverage than it does with power, but even in that aspect I’ve seen him get out to make some blocks on the second level there was no way the plodding Morris could’ve made. I think the kid is gonna have a nice career here.

David Akers: He’s now a perfect 4-of-4 on kicks of 50 yards or longer. I can’t shake the feeling that having a kicker as the offense’s most dependable weapon is also its biggest curse. When coaches trust their kickers too much they tend to not be as aggressive in their play-calls between the 25 and 40-yard-lines. I guess the same is true, in a way, of having a great defense. They both detract coaches from the goal of scoring touchdowns. We’ll see how it affects the 49ers down the road.

Friday, November 4, 2011

Who Wants To Play This Game? Noooo-body

Sunday's game between your local gridironers and the woebegone Washington Redskins at FedExField will be one of those unique sporting affairs that will feature two ticked-off head coaches who'd rather be elsewhere.

For just about any football aficionado Washington head whistle Mike Shanahan's discontent is easy enough to figure. He knows he's bringing a butter knife into a gunfight. His best running back (Tim Hightower) and tight end (Chris Cooley) are lost for the year and his top wide out (Santana Moss) will also be unavailable. Backup tight end Fred Davis is iffy with a wobbly ankle, as is left tackle Trent Williams, who's missed the past two games. Even safety O.J. Atogwe (Mike Singletary's son-in-law) is a long shot to play. We haven't even discussed their quarterback situation yet.

The Redskins have lost three in a row and four of five. Shanahan suffered the first shutout loss of his storied career last week at Buffalo and quarterback John Beck, who is winless in eight career appearances -- five starts -- was sacked a whopping 10 times by a Bills team that came into the game with four quarterback take-downs total in six games. I dare say that your Niners have a wee bit better defense than Buffalo, even without injured defensive end Ray McDonald, but allow for the possibility that playing in Toronto gave the Bills some as of yet unidentified superpowers. Still, barring a few turnovers or some special teams shenanigans (or, if you prefer, "Shanahanigans") it will be tough for the Redskins to have more points than 49ers whirling wunderkind Aldon Smith will have sacks. Call it -2.5 in favor of Washington's offense.

Meanwhile Jim Harbaugh has no fear of the Redskins per se, no more than any other foe in the Freddie P. Soft phylum of your weekly power poll, but if had his druthers the 49ers would rather be playing this game on Nov. 20, four days before their other Maryland tilt against the Baltimore Ravens on Thanksgiving. The Niners fought the league's scheduling committee long and hard about the unfairness of having to fly cross-country to crab cake county twice in 20 days, but were met with the usual unsympathetic shrugs they've come to expect from the league ever since the Yorks over ownership from the disgraced Eddie D. Let's be real about it -- there are janitors in that building that Commish Goodell respects more than plucky youngster Jed York, so expect the 49ers to be boned by the schedule fairy for a bit longer until they become established contenders again.

Still, if you have to fly all the way out there you might as well win, so in that sense a trip to the nation's capitol should be perfectly pleasant for your 49ers. The 'skins are their fifth straight foe that is far more accommodating to opposing runners than they are to passers, and as you're no doubt aware that's a hanging slider right into the wheelhouse of a Jim Harbaugh Greg Roman Geep Chryst Mike Solari Tim Drevno Tom Rathman Isaac Sopoaga offense that will be looking to give the ball to Frank Gore early and often as he seeks to extend his streak of 125-yard rushing performances to five.

Also, for someone like Harbaugh who's so attuned to the pulse of his team, one would think that this would be the week he'll look to get Vernon Davis some touches, considering that it's a homecoming game for Davis, who's from the D.C. area. Ol' Vern contributed to the nation's economy by purchasing 90 or so tickets for friends and family and presumably it wasn't so they could watch him block Ryan Kerrigan all afternoon. Davis tried hard to be unquotable as possible with us ink-stained wretches on Thursday, but it was still pretty clear that he measures his self-worth in catches and touchdowns rather than seal blocks and double-teams drawn. Some appeasement is in order.

The game will present another reunion of sorts for 49ers corner Carlos Rogers, whose departure after six up-and-down seasons in Washington drew some interesting comments from Shanahan and former teammates. Rogers, who has stated ad nauseum that he did not enjoy his last few seasons as a Redskin and that he wanted out two years ago, was mocked by Fred Davis and DeAngelo Hall for his poor hands and ripped by Shanahan for "inconsistent" play. While the Washington coach was totally complimentary of Rogers to the San Francisco media, he told his local beat writers that if he felt that Rogers merited a long-term contract that he'd still be a Redskin. Rogers already has three interceptions for San Francisco after never having more than two in any season for Washington, and he'll no doubt be looking to make a point to his bronzed former boss.

Beyond all that there really aren't many story angles to discuss. The 49ers haven't strung two halves together on offense in any of their road games, but 30 minutes of competent football should more than suffice against a punchless Washington outfit. Harbaugh will be looking to get out of there quick and painless and Shanahan will probably be more preoccupied with scouting reports on Landry Jones and Matt Barkley than he will with the game plan. Nothing interesting ever happens in Washington and there's no reason to expect that to change on Sunday.

Week 8 Picks:

San Francisco at Washington (+4):
As near as I can figure, the Redskins have nothing going for them aside from being home, and even that may be a drawback as their fans figure to let them have it if things get ugly early. Fortunately for them, the Niners have a gnarly habit of playing only one half of football per game on offense and back-to-back shutouts are fairly rare in the NFL, so this should be a close one. 49ers 23, Redskins 16

Atlanta at Indianapolis (+8):
The Colts insist that they're trying and they will continue to. Doesn't that make this whole saga even sadder? Also, Atlanta gets Julio Jones back, just to make this match-up even more lopsided. Falcons 30, Colts 13 **FOUR POINT PICK**

New York Jets at Buffalo (-2):
I'd love to pay more attention to this one live, but those damn Niners will selfishly monopolize my attention once more. What I like about the game is that we'll be forced to take the winner seriously while the loser won't suffer too badly. Kinda gives me a warm feeling as I dislike neither team. Jets 20, Bills 17

Seattle at Dallas (-12):
Ugh. The only way this game gets my attention is if the Seahawks are up 10 in the fourth quarter. The sight of a smiling Tony Romo gives me gas. Cowboys 34, Seahawks 14

Miami at Kansas City (-5):
Seems like a low line but A) the Chiefs have a short week B) the Dolphins play close games and C) Kansas City was secretly kind of terrible against the Chargers. Still, how many narrow losses in a row can Miami have? At some point they'll either win or lose big, right? Chiefs 26, Dolphins 9

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-9):
Vegas has caught on to the Jekyll & Hide nature of these two teams with their home/road splits, so this line makes pretty good sense, as the quarterbacks have been turnover machines on the road. (Or, in Josh Freeman's case, at "home" in England.) Drew Brees needs the running game to take a bit of pressure on him to sell the play-action and to give pass rushers something to think about. I think nine points is too much for a division rivarly game. Saints 30, Buccaneers 23

Cleveland at Houston (-11):
I admit the Browns have a low-watt offense and the Texans have been locking people up the last couple of weeks, but Cleveland plays too good on defense in their own right to lay 11. I think Colt McCoy will play fairly well in what amounts to a homecoming for him. Texans 23, Browns 17

Cincinnati at Tennessee (-3):
I'm kind of shocked the Titans are favored in this one. If the Bengals can win at Seattle, why not Tennessee? Don't be fooled by the Titans record. They've beaten nobody, save for a Week 2 win over a Baltimore team that was still euphoric over the beatdown they handed Pittsburgh the week before. Easy upset pick (which means it's doomed). Bengals 26, Titans 17 **SIX POINT PICK**

Denver at Oakland (-9):
I don't care if Tim Tebow is the worse than Babe Laufenberg, I'm laying nine with the carcass of Carson Palmer playing for Oakland. Also, there's a good chance Darren McFadden will be out. Turnovers will be the only way either team can score. Raiders 16, Broncos 13

New York Giants at New England (-9):
Patriots fans will be at full boil against the team that robbed them of a perfect season. The Giants are actually the more complete team, thanks to their ferocious pass rush and I was this close to picking them in an upset, but with Ahmad Bradshaw highly unlikely to play with a cracked bone in his foot, I just can't do it. Still, if Eli Manning just drops back to pass every play, I like that match-up against the Patriots secondary (assuming Hakeem Nicks plays). Should be a wild one. Patriots 27, Giants 24

St. Louis at Arizona (-2):
Sam Bradford is probably gonna play for St. Louis and John Skelton will start for Arizona. It doesn't seem possible that Skelton could be any worse than Kevin Kolb, but until proven otherwise, I have to assume he will be. Rams 23, Cardinals 16 **EIGHT POINT PICK**

Green Bay at San Diego (+6):
A interception-prone quarterback facing guys like Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams and Sam Shields? This sounds fairly simple. And if I'm wrong, I'll hardly cry about a Packers loss. Packers 34, Chargers 20 **TEN POINT PICK**

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-4):
The Steelers are a lot hotter but the Ravens are much healthier. I'm gonna go with the team that doesn't have Joe Flacco playing in prime time on the road. We might see a couple loud pops in this one. Steelers 24, Ravens 17

Chicago at Philadelphia (-8):
I think the birds have found themselves and I'm pretty excited about the match-up of the Eagles defensive line against the Bears big uglies. I'm not as excited about Matt Forte against Philly's linebackers and safeties. Oh well. Eagles 30, Bears 20

Last week's W-L: 8-5
Season W-L: 73-43
Week 8 Vs. Spread: 5-7-1
Season Vs. Spread: 44-65-7
Week 8 +/- Points (All games count as one point unless specified): -2
Season +/- Points: -28

I forgot to do extra point picks last week (just as well) so I'll double them up this week, Berman-style. Good luck!

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Five 49ers Observations and Week 8 Power Poll

You'll forgive me if I don't give you some fancy preamble and we just jump right to it. Here are five 49ers thoughts that have been rattling in my brain for a couple weeks, in no order of importance.

1. Okay, I get it with Mike Iupati now. I admit I was a bit rough on the big lug during the off-season, during the preseason and even the first couple weeks of the regular season (he was poor during the Dallas game). However, the light seems to have turned on for him in a major way and he's been an absolute bulldozer of late. When they run left, they run right behind him. When they run right, it's with him pulling. Iupati is freakishly athletic for his size and can really move well in tight spaces. He's missing far fewer blocks than last year and not getting confused as much in the pass game on twists and stunts. He's not lunging at people anymore and playing with his feet under him. Coaches are fond of saying that players improve the most between year one and two and while NaVorro Bowman has been the best example of it, Iupati and Anthony Davis aren't far behind. Kudos to Trent Baalke.

2. Harbaugh is killing Frank Gore.
31 carries against dilapidated Cleveland? Gore's averaging 20 carries per game and has had at least 17 touches in every contest. That's too many and he won't be able to sustain it for a full season. You've got a good backup in Kendall Hunter, who brings his own ingredients to the table. Only giving him three touches to Gore's 31 is inexcusable.

3. While we're on that theme, Harbaugh is riding all of his starters too much.
Seriously, outside of the sixth and seventh offensive linemen and the tight ends, what backups on this team ever see the field outside of special teams? Kyle Williams and Anthony Dixon never play and Ted Ginn is there purely for show as a third receiver. The young defensive linemen never play, nor do the linebackers. There are eight guys on defense -- Ray McDonald, Justin Smith, Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, Ahmad Brooks, Carlos Rogers, Tarell Brown and Dashon Goldson -- who basically play every snap. It's asking too much of them. Would it kill Harbaugh to give a guy like Larry Grant an odd series here or there to give Bowman or Willis a blow? Can't Aldon Smith relieve Brooks every once in a while instead of always coming in for Parys Haralson? The 49ers have good depth in some spots and they're not using it and as a consequence these guys will be worn down to a nub by December.

4. As well as they've played, I don't think the 49ers are using their best 11 on defense. And no, I'm not talking about Aldon Smith being a nickel rusher stuck behind Haralson. No, I mean Brown. How good has he been, honestly? When teams complete any pass of consequence to a wideout, more often than not it's been his man. He let a dink-and-dunk passer with a noodle arm get the better of him in the fourth quarter last Sunday. He doesn't have a single pick in seven games. Isn't it about time that Shawntae Spencer is let out of the dog house? He's been persona non grata on this team for the crime of being injured and it's a shame he's still buried behind Brown even though he's healthy. Spencer is bigger, more physical, and has more experience. He deserves a shot.

5. I don't understand why Moran Norris is still on the roster.
Rookie Bruce Miller has shown he's the better receiver, the better special teams player, and, of late, the better blocker too. You've no doubt noticed how Gore and the running game has taken off with Miller starting. He's faster and more athletic than Norris and able to get to his targets both at the line of scrimmage and the second level, easier. Isaac Sopoaga has found a niche as a short-yardage fullback. What exactly is Norris needed for? The 49ers dressed their 46 best players last week (not counting Joshua Morgan or Nate Byham, who are on IR) and presumably will continue to do so. At whose expense would Norris be activated? No one I can think of. Most teams don't have the luxury of having two fullbacks on the 53-man roster. You'd think Norris' roster spot could be used on a more useful player, such as a veteran receiver or a backup outside linebacker. Is Norris around simply to sate his friend Gore?

Debate these topics amongst yourselves, or seek me out on Twitter. If the comments section on this here blog isn't working for you, you can always drop me a line at michael.erler1@gmail.com.

Week 8 Power Poll

1. Green Bay (7-0):
What I found out during the Packers bye week is that apparently Greg Jennings was the MVP of my fantasy team. Green Bay may still be undefeated, but sadly the Roster Marginalia no longer are. Also, I should've played Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brent Celek last week over Drew Brees and Vernon Davis. Packers go on the road to San Diego to take on a grouchy Chargers team on short rest, though I don't think it's gonna be too hostile of an environment for them. Not only will the stands be filled with 40 percent bandwagon Packers fans, but there's more eye candy at Chargers games than anywhere.

2. Pittsburgh (6-2): So much for the Super Bowl loser jinx. Steelers are red hot, Ben Roethlisberger is playing out of his mind and the defense seems to be improving by the week, regardless of who's healthy. Amazingly, they're doing it without much of a running game, dependable offensive tackles or elite corners. Nothing makes sense about this team. Hard to see them not winning the AFC North if they can take care of the Ravens on Monday night, and they owe 'em one after Baltimore spanked 'em 35-7 on opening day, including a late two-point conversion for no reason.

3. New York Giants (5-2):
I'm not gonna punish them for needing 3.5 quarters to get the better of the Dolphins. Miami is a tough team to get up for. The Giants have injury issues at running back and receiver, and their schedule is just about to get ridiculous, starting with this week's Super Bowl rematch at New England. However, if Eli Manning continues his strong play and that defensive line keeps pressuring opposing QBs, I don't think the Giants will have the free-fall that most people are expecting.

4. San Francisco (6-1): Huzzah! A season-high place for your Niners on the power poll, and fully deserved thanks to that ferocious front four. A bit of warning though, nothing they do on Sunday at Washington is likely to inspire me to move them any higher, as that is one dilapidated team they're on Sunday. If your local gridironers can get through the Jints to get to 8-1, we'll talk. Also, if it's not too much trouble, I'd like to see Mr. Smith mix in another 200-yard passing day, just to remember what it looks like.

5. Detroit (6-2):
Now that they've finished scraping the Tebow off their shoes, the Lions get a well-deserved bye before their return engagement with the Bears -- this time in Chicago -- next week. Matthew Stafford had his best game in weeks and now he'll have some time to get his ankle healthy.I must say I wasn't a fan of them making fun of Terrible Tim's praying and all the trash they blabbed to Mike Silver after the game. What's the point? Beating the guy isn't enough, you gotta humiliate him too? It's like I always say: Teams take on the personality of their coach. The Lions may be fun to watch, but they seem to be a bunch of jerks.

6. Baltimore (5-2):
Yes, I'm aware that they nearly lost to Jacksonville and Arizona in back-to-back weeks. Here's my excuse: I like their defense (which wasn't really responsible for too many of those 27 points allowed against the Cards), I like Ray Rice, I like their wide outs, and they haven't lost to the any of the other playoff hopefuls I have below them. I'm aware Joe Flacco hasn't set the world on fire, believe me. The situation is being monitored. He gets another shot in his personal house of horrors at Heinz Field on Monday night.

7. New England (5-2):
Oofa. A five place fall for losing to the team right below them in the rankings on the road. Too harsh? Probably. However, what exactly do the Pats have going for them besides Tom Brady and his two tight ends? They have no running game, no speed at receiver and a skeleton crew on defense. If Ahmad Bradshaw and Hakeem Nicks play I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Giants win over there. This is a flawed team, my friends.

8. New York Jets (4-3):
Similar to the Ravens in almost every conceivable way, except for that whole "having a running game" thing, though Shonn Greene did have a nice day against the Chargers before the bye week. Real interesting match-up they've got coming up at Buffalo Sunday morning. I'm sure the Bills will just be thrilled if Aaron Maybin puts Fitzpatrick on the turf a couple times.

9. Houston (5-3):
It's hard to gauge how good their defense is without Mario Williams when all they've done of late is beat up on the popgun offenses of their AFC South rivals, but the Texans are avoiding the trap game pratfalls that have plagued them in years past. In many ways they're similar to the Niners. They very well could finish 12-4 with their soft schedule and be underdogs in their first playoff game. Arian Foster and his mates will get the Brownies to chew on this Sunday.

10. Cincinnati (5-2):
Sure the Seahawks aren't very good. Still, winning convincingly at Seattle is no mean feat, especially for a rookie quarterback. The Bengals seem to get a big return on defense or special teams every week and I was impressed how they took care of business even without Cedric Benson, who was suspended. Sneakybig game coming up Sunday afternoon at Tennessee, who are a quiet 4-3 themselves.

11. Buffalo (5-2):
They came into their game against the Redskins with a league-low four sacks in six games and then slammed poor John Beck nine ten times into whatever playing surface they've got over there in Toronto. All available evidence points to this being an indictment of Washington, but heaven help us if the Bills actually found themselves a pass rush. We'll know more Sunday against the Jets.

12. Philadelphia (3-4):
A six-spot jump for beating a 3-3 team at home? I'll be honest, if you guaranteed me that Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy will stay healthy the whole year, I'd have the Eagles in the top five. And before you condemn me, Steve Mariucci said on NFL Network that he'd have them No. 2 behind the Packers. You don't think he's full of beans, do you? What's that, you do? I see. Well at the risk of jinxing them, the Iggles certainly look like they've gotten some of their issues resolved over the bye week. Another prime time home game against an unlikeable quarterback awaits, this time a Monday nighter against Jay Cutler and the Bears.

13. New Orleans (4-3): Down they drop, from 4 to 13. No mercy for an outfit who've declared to the world that they intend to be world-beaters at home and absolute rubbish on the road. What happened to this offensive line? It seems as if Brees is even a little off kilter the whole operation goes poof. The defense is not built to hang around either. You have to give them either a 14 point lead or things get ugly. Now they get to defend their turf against the Bucs.

14. Chicago (4-3):
Do I feel rotten for dropping them four spots for the crime of having a bye week? No, not really. I honestly feel the 13 teams in front would all beat them on a neutral field. However, it would be just like the football gods to punish me with an upset in Philly at the hands of this loathsome bunch.

15. Tampa Bay (4-3):
For their sake I hope LeGarrette Blount is healthy now and good to go because one could easily argue that his backup, Earnest Graham, was the team MVP through the first seven games. Too much is on Josh Freeman's shoulders and he needs some relief. Things could get worse before they improve at New Orleans. The Saints will be in a rotten mood and eager to avenge a loss to these same Bucs a couple weeks back.

16. Atlanta (4-3): And here's our last team on the positive side of the ledger. Did you miss the Falcons on their bye week? Me neither. They're gonna get Julio Jones back this week, though in his absence Atlanta discovered they're better off being a run-first team with Michael Turner anyhow. Regardless of what they call, the Colts figure to give them little trouble.

17. Kansas City (4-3):
Somehow, someway, they've won four in a row, despite losing Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry. The Chiefs are way below the radar, but have some dangerous receiving threats in Dwayne Bowe, Steve Breaston, and now Jonathan Baldwin. Streak should hit five with Dolphins up next.

18. San Diego (4-3):
Pretty hard to pin Monday night's loss on Norval. We keep waiting for Philip Rivers to snap out of his funk, but he continues to be a turnover machine week after week. Me? I blame Takeo Spikes, who dooms every team he's on to an early vacation. Maybe playing the Pack this week will be good for them. After blowing games everyone expected them to win, why not play somebody where no one expects anything of you?

19. Dallas (3-4): We think of Cowboys-Eagles as a big rivalry, but I swear it seems like once every two or three seasons Dallas goes over there and flat out mails in a game where they just don't give a damn. Once the Eagles scored on their first possession it felt like the Cowboys knew they had no shot. Tony Romo hardly ever threw to Dez Bryant and Miles Austin, choosing to repeatedly target Laurent Robinson instead. I guess they were just steeling themselves for their stretch of patsies, starting with this Sunday against Seattle.

20. Tennessee (4-3):
The last two times they played somebody good, they got flattened. Their running back situation is deplorable. Their best receiver is someone named Damian Williams. And yet I can't rank them any lower. They have to beat the Bengals at home if we're to take them seriously.

21. Oakland (4-3): On one hand I don't see a bright future for them at all with Carson Palmer under center. That was a disastrous trade, in my opinion. On the other hand, you'd think they'd beat Tebow at home.

22. Minnesota (2-6):
It blows my mind that their record is as bad as it is. They're in the wrong division for sure. Put them in the NFC West or AFC South and they'd do some damage. Also, give them a decent coach. There's signs of life with this team because, surprisingly, Christian Ponder isn't terrible. Another game with the Packers, this time in Green Bay, awaits them after the bye.

23. Carolina (2-6):
Great running backs, good receivers, good tight ends, awesome QB... How do they keep losing games? One of these weeks I should probably watch them play and get to the bottom of this. But not this week, because they're off.

24. Cleveland (3-4):
They're beat up to hell, but that secondary keeps them in games. Also, Colt McCoy wasn't as bad as I thought he'd be when I saw him up close. Somebody needs to get that boy some receivers. We'll see if they have any more success stopping Arian Foster than they did Frank Gore.

**THE DREGS**

25. Jacksonville (2-6):
They still have a defense and Maurice Jones-Drew, whom am I traded for in fantasy, so bully for them. Enjoy that bye week, fella. Time to work after that.

26. Seattle (2-5): They out-gained the Bengals by a bunch but still lost at home, which is pretty sad. Their quarterback situation is even sadder. I'm not expecting much from them at Dallas.

27. Washington (3-4): Just beat up to hell, and they gave Mike Shanahan the first shutout of his coaching career. That guy lied to us today about something related to Carlos Rogers, so screw him. I hope the Niners beat the hell out of them, and I'm not even a fan.

28. St. Louis (1-6):
That's kinda sorta how I pictured their defensive line playing the whole year. Where's it been? Kind of ironic how A.J. Feeley might have saved Sam Bradford from Andrew Luck hysteria.

29. Arizona (1-6):
I think maybe Kevin Kolb isn't looking too good you guys. Getting sacked six times in 27 drop backs doesn't help either. Now he gets to face that Rams D-line.

30. Miami (0-7):
Best 0-7 team ever? Best 0-7 team ever. I'm sure the owner will treat the team to some fine KC barbecue on Saturday afternoon. And then again at night. And then have some catered in the locker room before the game. Eat up, fellas.

31. Indianapolis (0-8):
It's like I was telling Grant Cohn the other day, "Man, once teams get some film on Curtis Painter, it's gonna be hard for him to keep up his slightly-below-average play." Cohn just laughed like he understood what the hell I was talking about and went back to talking about rap with Sam Lam.

32. Denver (2-5):
Tebowmania! Hey, I admit Tebow didn't look good against the Lions, but YOU try playing quarterback with a Skip Bayless fastened tightly around your winky.