As you've no doubt heard, one of 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh's trademark inspirational catchphrases is to ask the team after wins, "Who's got it better than us?" where afterward, the team answers, in unison, "Noooooo-body."
The origins of it come from Harbaugh's humble beginnings, where his father would use the saying to rally the family when times got tough. Harbaugh took the rhetorical to heart and adopted it as a coach to lift up his team's confidence, knowing full well that on most day's his players weren't the most talented ones on the field.
So it's a bit odd then, that these days when Harbaugh asks his charges who's got it better than them, the answer they yell back at him is damn close to the truth. According to the gang at Football Outsiders, the 49ers are currently the second-likeliest team to make the postseason, at 89.1 percent, trailing only the 4-0 defending champion Green Bay Packers. Our local gridironers have a two-game lead against division mates Arizona and Seattle and a three game advantage over the preseason NFC West favorite St. Louis Rams, who, in their decimated condition, wouldn't even be favorites in the Pac-12.
The Cardinals and Seahawks next games are both on the road, which has not been nearly as hospitable to them as it has to the 49ers this year. The Rams, meanwhile, get the reprieve of a bye week, but have to visit the aforementioned Packers the Sunday after that, meaning they're a mortal lock for 0-5 (kind of like how the 49ers were at Philly, but mortal-er).
Your Niners, on the other hand, are at home against the wholly annoying Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a squad who dominated them at the 'Stick last season to the tune of 21-0. Then, as now, San Francisco entered the game on the heels of a two-game winning streak and full of confidence. The difference is the last couple of seasons they had a coaching staff that was exposed as lazy, arrogant and under-prepared when times were good and now they have Harbaugh, who might tell his players they're not half bad after wins but spends the rest of the week tirelessly chewing over every last detail like some hyperactive badger. The next time he takes an opponent lightly will be the first, and he's got enough guys on the roster who remember all too well the pounding they took from these Bucs.
Another key difference is this time Harbaugh will have Alex Smith under center, whereas last time they had to make do with Troy Smith. The Buccaneers coaches quickly discovered that the latter was next to useless once you took the play-action pass away from him and the Troy Smith Era, which began with much promise, quickly faded into a footnote in 49ers lore.
You know what? It's aggravating to keep writing "Alex Smith" and "Troy Smith" over and over, so for the purposes of this preview, Alex will now be referred to as "Utah" and Troy will be "Ohio," kapis?
Our Utah is far more accurate -- albeit in a dink-and-dunk fashion -- than Ohio ever was and he's as red-hot (97.7 QB rating, 8th in the NFL) as he can ever possibly be. I dare suggest that it's been fairly established that if he gets a modicum of protection, that Utah can string a few completions together and move the chains.
Therein lies the rub, of course. The Bucs defense had six sacks when they visited a year ago and that was against, again, Ohio, who is a wee bit more mobile than Utah. The 49ers offensive line actually had an encouraging game against the Philadelphia Eagles in that they allowed "only" three sacks, though to be fair to them they dominated Philly's smallish front in the run game.
Harbaugh already benched the main culprit in right guard (now ex-right guard) Chilo Rachal, so now the weak link is right tackle Anthony Davis, who gave up a hat trick of sacks to Eagle end Jason Babin -- and was fined 25 large for a pair of leg-whips -- and who struggled mightily in these teams' previous engagement. His match-up will be Michael Bennett, who had a pair of sacks himself in Monday's win over Indy.
Even more foreboding is the other side of the ball, where nose tackle Isaac Sopoaga picked the wrong week to come down a staph infection. Ricky Jean Francois, who admitted he's not big enough or fast enough to be an ideal starter, will start in his place. Jean Francois was memorably rag-dolled as a rookie against the Packers and said that game woke him up and made him realize he needs to prepare as though he's going to be a starter every week and to focus on his technique to make up for his physical limitations.
Jean Francois and veteran linemates Justin Smith and Ray McDonald will have to be at their best occupying blockers, because the Bucs will be perfectly happy to stubbornly hand the ball over and over to LeGerrette Blount, whom safety Dashon Goldson aptly described as "a load." Blount is bigger than both of the 49ers inside backers, Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman, so it would probably be a good thing for him to not have a head of steam when he encounters those gentlemen. And heaven forbid if it's left to the defensive backs to bring Blount down, because he's the type of galoot that tempts corners across the land to make, as Deion Sanders cheerfully puts it, "a business decision," i.e. getting the heck of the way and preserving one's body in order to be able to cash checks in the future.
The Buccaneers are troublesome because while they're not world beaters, they're not bad at anything. Their defense has talent at all three levels, especially at corner with Ronde Barber and Aqib Talib. Their defensive line features three first round picks and a fourth guy, Da'Quan Bowers, who would've been if the medical people weren't convinced his knee ligaments are about as stable as ramen noodles.
On offense they've got Blount, a great young, athletic line in front of him, a pair of big, mobile tight ends in Kellen Winslow Jr. and rookie Luke Stocker, a top-shelf 3rd-down back in Earnest Graham and of course, QB Josh Freeman, who's the closest thing the NFC has to Ben Roethlisberger, without all the off-field unpleasantness. Freeman isn't Michael Vick, but he can take off and run it when need be, and as Goldson pointed out, he delights in lowering his shoulder into defensive backs instead of sliding like quarterbacks are taught. He also has a pesky habit of saving his best for the fourth quarter.
In short, the Buccaneers, who've dubbed themselves "The West Coast Killers" for their success at Arizona and San Francisco last season, are precisely the kind of team that Harbaugh would love to coach, right down to their backup QB Josh Johnson, who played for him at the University of San Diego and whom he's quite fond of. There are scores of reasons to pick them to win.
However, I'm going with the home side. They've got Harbaugh, they've got Utah, and a couple of talented kids in the backfield in rookies Kendall Hunter and Bruce Miller that the Bucs didn't have to face last time. I think the flight out will sap Tampa Bay just a bit, as will having a short week to prepare for the Niners because they played on Monday night. The 49ers are nobody's idea of a "scheduled loss," but the scales do tip in their favor.
If they wind up winning this one, the ushers might as well hand out "2011 NFC West Champion" T-shirts in the stands. Who'd mind that?
Nooooo-body.
Week 5 Picks...
Philadelphia at Buffalo (+3): The Eagles are a desperate team and going on the road is probably the best thing for them right now after two home disappointments have turned most of their rabid fanbase against them. The defense figures to have problems stopping Fred Jackson and their pass rush takes a hit too without Trent Cole, but I don't see that Bills secondary or so-so pass rush bothering Vick and Co. too much either. Eagles 30, Bills 20 **TWO STAR SPECIAL**
Kansas City at Indianapolis (-3): Both of these teams have played better than their records would indicate the past two weeks. Even though the Colts are on a short week, I like 'em here against a Chiefs team that got destroyed the last time they went on the road against a dome team. I think they'll have some issues in pass protection against Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Colts 20, Chiefs 13
Arizona at Minnesota (-3): For two teams that are a combined 1-7, this is an oddly compelling game. On one hand, Larry Fitzgerald always plays well when he goes back to his home state (he was a Vikings ball boy). On the other, if Donovan McNabb has any pride at all, he'll play well against Kevin Kolb, who Andy Reid decided he was worse than when he shipped off from Philly to Washington. I'll give the tiebreaker there to the team who's at home, has the better pass rush and the better running back. Vikings 27, Cardinals 20
Seattle at New York Giants (-10): The last time Seattle visited the east coast, they got positively slaughtered by a Pittsburgh team that's had a whale of a time stopping anyone else they've played. Good enough for me. Besides, this is as hot as Eli Manning and the Giants are ever gonna get. Giants 31, Seahawks 10
Tennessee at Pittsburgh (-3): Mini-upset special, just to see how real this Titans team is. Their pass rush looks fearsome, and Ben Roethlisberger is a bit gimpy with a bad foot and he's playing behind a beat up line. The Steelers have also been having trouble stopping the run and Chris Johnson is starting to heat up. Also, I want to see if Matt Hasselbeck can keep up his hot streak. Titans 23, Steelers 20
New Orleans at Carolina (+7): With Cam Newton going absolutely insane, the Panthers at home seems like the obvious pick with the points. I'm going the other way. I think Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams will have a little something for the rookie and I happen to believe the Panthers defense, who are without their two best linebackers for the season, is terrible. If Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram can't run through them, then Drew Brees will simply pass over them. Saints 41, Panthers 24
Cincinnati at Jacksonville (-3): What an ugly game. I'm kind of surprised the Jaguars are favored, to be honest with you. I'll go with the team with the better defense, the slightly more experienced QB, and the better receivers. Bengals 20, Jaguars 13 **THREE STAR SPECIAL**
Oakland at Houston (-6): Both teams can run it, but I think the Texans can stop it better. Their defense has been excellent at home and they have a multi-pronged pass rush led by Mario Williams. I don't think they're gonna miss Andre Johnson too much this week. Texans 30, Raiders 20
Tampa Bay at San Francisco (-3): I've always liked the 49ers to win this game, even before the season started and I had them being a 7-9/8-8 second-place team. I think the Niners, coming off a two-game winning streak last season, badly underestimated the Bucs (their arrogant coaching staff was prone to doing that, unfortunately) and Tampa Bay took advantage of Troy Smith defensively. I think the Niners match up pretty well against these guys, even though their run defense will take a hit without Isaac Sopoaga. I see the offensive line having a good showing at home and the defense holding on for dear life. 49ers 24, Buccaneers 20.
San Diego at Denver (+4): The Broncos allowed 49 points at Green Bay and the fans are gonna riot soon if they don't see some reason for encouragement, either from the defense or in the form of Tim Tebow under center. Kyle Orton has a good thing going with receivers Eric Decker and Brandon Lloyd and I think they're gonna keep it close if not win outright against an underachieving Chargers squad. Chargers 29, Broncos 27
New York Jets at New England (-9): The Jets offense is in shambles, but they're playing one of the worst defenses in the league. The Patriots offense is a juggernaut, but the Jets are almost impossible to pass against. I'm gonna take the wimpy way out and feel very stupid about it midway through the second quarter when New England is up three touchdowns. Patriots 27, Jets 20
Green Bay at Atlanta (+6): I don't like the Packers here, I love them. I know it's stupid, juvenile stuff, but I think Aaron Rodgers was legitimately offended that Roddy White had the gall to suggest the Falcons were the better team last year and that the playoff win was some kind of fluke. Rodgers was in an ornery enough mood after Brett Favre's comments earlier in the week that he came into a stacked team and should've won a Super Bowl earlier. Packers 41, Falcons 20 **FIVE STAR SPECIAL **
Chicago at Detroit (-6): The last time the Lions played at home, they won by 45. I don't think they'll blow out the Bears, but Matthew Stafford and the gang will get off to a quicker start than they have been and Chicago's offense couldn't run away from them anyway. Lions 27, Bears 17 **FOUR STAR SPECIAL**
Last week's W-L: 11-5
Season W-L: 43-21
Week 3 Vs. Spread: 9-7
Season Vs. Spread: 26-36-2
Week 3 +/- Points (All games count as one point unless specified): +4
Season +/- Points: -18
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