Right about now I'm guessing that Jim Harbaugh is thankful that his Stanford team was so dominant last season, because it gave him some valuable experience in playing against the dregs and lower lights of the Pac-10 (now Pac-12). I mean any coach can rally the troops and give them the "nobody believes in us" shpiel when his team is a 10-point underdog, but the rah-rah coaching manual is decidedly more vague when it comes to the question of how to motivate your team when the whole world thinks you can win simply by throwing your jerseys out on the field.
Hence our introduction to Harbaugh's latest bit of paranoia: Freddy P. Soft. What the "P" stands for is not suitable to discuss in polite company, but if you were a fan of Naughty by Nature in the 90's then you should be able to figure it out. Mr. Soft, according to Harbaugh's description is about four inches long and likes to spend his time lurking on the shoulders of overconfident football players and whispering sweet nothings into their ears about how wonderful they are and how easy the next game will be. Basically, he's a cross between your average 49ers fan on Twitter and Mr. Hankey the Christmas Poo, and his odor is more repugnant than both.
The 49ers, who enter Sunday's game against the 3-3 Cleveland Browns as 9-point favorites, have every reason in the world to be feeling rather good about themselves. They just finished a stretch of their schedule where even one win out of three against the Eagles, Buccaneers and Lions would've been considered a relative success and made them the prohibitive favorites to win the NFC West. Instead they went out and won all three, with the middle one against Tampa coming in rather convincing fashion. Then they had a bye week, which helped, according to Gen. Harbaugh, "Heal their wounds."
On the surface when you look at the match-ups, it's hard to imagine how the Browns could possibly score at all without the aid of turnovers. Receiver Mohamed Massaquoi will be out, as will workhorse Peyton Hillis, most likely. It's not like this bunch was a powderkeg offense before. The Browns are 27th in scoring (16.2), 23rd in total offense (308.3 yards), 22nd in passing (217.2 yards) and, surprisingly, 29th in rushing (91.2 yards). Second-year QB Colt McCoy is the spazziest signal caller back there outside of Arizona's Kevin Kolb.
McCoy doesn't possess a big arm and he certainly doesn't have any explosive receivers. It's a dink-and-dunk offense, the kind of outfit that can possess the ball for 43 minutes, as they did against the Seahawks last week, and yet somehow manage only six points.
Their saving grace, as with the 49ers, has been on the other side of the ball, where the Browns are fourth overall in yards allowed per game and first against the pass. 49ers Greg Roman praised the physicality of Cleveland's starting corners Sheldon Brown and Joe Haden and noted how their safeties are always in the right place. It's not a unit that's blessed with many dynamic play-makers, but one that dares you to have the patience to march down the field in 12 plays without making any mistakes (drops, penalties, missed blocks) or getting too greedy.
Basically it's the 49ers against the team everyone thought the 49ers would be. When you look at the yards the locals have gained and allowed, they really have no business being the fifth-highest scoring team in the league and second stingiest in being scored upon. The +8 turnover margin has helped, as have their boffo special teams of course. Coordinator Brad Seely, whom they poached away from the Browns, has been a godsend. While Harbaugh gets all the attention, it's Seely and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio's units who have gotten the real results.
That the Niners will have to march slowly to score shouldn't trouble them much since that's the only way they can move the ball anyway. They will welcome back Braylon Edwards against his former team to take some of the pressure off Alex Smith from having to force every pass to Michael Crabtree, but their inherent mismatch will be with tight ends Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker, as always. It won't always look pretty, but they'll cobble together the odd drive or three and it will dent the scoreboard just enough to keep your rowdies off Smith's back for another week.
Ol' Softie was last spotted in Jacksonville on Monday, where he ruined Harbaugh's brother John's evening but good. Can he fly cross-country in time to make this one sufficiently morbid? I'm thinking no, but that's because I've always been the pie-in-the-sky, wide-eyed optimist. Also, I have Davis on my fantasy team. Mainly it's because he's a fictional character conjured up by a man who, based on all available evidence, is clearly insane.
The Cardinal have had no problems beating up on the Washington States of the world, and Harbaugh's charges should have similar success against the Cougars' NFL equivalent in the Browns. And look at the bright side - If they blow it then everyone will think they stink again, and that's Harbaugh's comfort zone anyway. That's what we call a "win-win" in the biz.
Week 8 Picks
Indianapolis at Tennessee (-9): Here's when you know things are bad for your team: When you're a 9-point dog to a team that lost 41-7 at home the week before, who's star running back is averaging less than three yards per carry and whose best receiver is out for the season. I can't commit to the Titans giving that many points to anybody. Titans 19, Colts 13
New Orleans at St. Louis (+14): On one hand, that's a lot of points. On the other, A.J. Feeley will be getting another start and the Saints showed last week that they're not shy about handing out a proper drubbing if the opportunity's there. No Mark Ingram for the Saints means more pass attempts for Drew Brees against the world's slowest secondary. Saints 41, Rams 13
Miami at NY Giants (-10): Miami has been pretty good at hanging around in ballgames, and Eli Manning has an odd habit of keeping terrible teams in them too (see the Seattle debacle). Maybe a pouty Reggie Bush will be pumped up for this one. Giants 24, Dolphins 16
Minnesota at Carolina (-4): What's weirder if we looked at this match-up two months ago, the fact that the Panthers have a big quarterback edge in this game or that it would've been an even bigger edge if Donovan McNabb was still starting for the Vikings? Minnesota suspended Chris Cook -- with good reason -- so you wonder who'll be covering Steve Smith. Panthers 30, Vikings 20
Arizona at Baltimore (-13): O how the Ravens let me down Monday night. Yet another object lesson that I know a little tiny wee bit about the Niners and precious little about anything else. I still think they're pretty good, but that's because I'm stubborn and stupid. It would be hard to give them 13 points considering they only scored 7 the other night, but then I remember how terrible the Cardinals have been on east coast road trips. A shaky vote for Baltimore. Ravens 30, Cardinals 10
Jacksonville at Houston (-10): What's with all these huge point spreads? I'm gonna trust that Jags defense and Texans coach Gary Kubiak's wonkiness to keep it relatively close, to my great detriment I'm sure. I don't think Maurice Jones-Drew (whom I will nickname "Conveyor Belt" from now on after a story a colleague told me about him) is gonna fumble four times again, either. Texans 20, Jaguars 13
Washington at Buffalo (-6): The game's in Toronto, which probably drops the spread a point or two. The Bills are well rested and they know they have to make hay with the Jets coming on and the Bengals, Ravens and Raiders all in the wild card hunt. The Redskins are decimated and just about ready to fold, I think. Bills 27, Redskins 17
Detroit at Denver (+3): I'd like to think this line has more to do with the uncertainty in Detroit's quarterback situation than any misbegotten faith in Tim Tebow, but who knows how bettors think? As I recall, throwing a Christian to the Lions turned out rather one-sided. Lions 26, Broncos 10
Cleveland at San Francisco (-9): Barring a few egregious turnovers by one Alexander Douglas Smith, I can't imagine how Browns ever score in this one, yet I bet Grant Cohn $5 that Cleveland would have at least ten first downs anyway. 49ers 23, Browns 9
Cincinnati at Seattle (+3): I can't think of a single interesting thing to write about this ballgame. Why should it be different than any of the others? Seahawks 17, Bengals 13
New England at Pittsburgh (+3): I'd like to say I have no idea what's gonna happen and that I'd just like to see a good game but let's be real, the Patriots are gonna roll 'em in annoying Bradyesque fashion because that's what they always do to the Steelers. Also, I won't get to watch it live because of my dumb job. Patriots 34, Steelers 27
Dallas at Philadelphia (-4): Another one for the DVR. Always a fun time for me to try to get my postgame chores done at the 'Stick while the Iggles are on TV overhead. That point spread is ridiculous by the way. There is absolutely no basis for it whatsoever. So of course I'm picking them. Eagles 27, Cowboys 23
San Diego at Kansas City (+4): The Chiefs have won three in a row and always play the Chargers tough. Their crowd figures to be especially boisterous at home. Philip Rivers is slumping as badly as he has his whole career. Well, clearly I am incapable of learning things. Chargers 27, Chiefs 17
(HOLY BALLS I AM SO BAD AT THIS, I REALLY HOPE NOBODY IS GAMBLING ACTUAL MONEY BASED ON MY PICKS)
Last week's W-L: 6-7
Season W-L: 65-38
Week 7 Vs. Spread: 3-9-1
Season Vs. Spread: 39-58-6
Week 7 +/- Points (All games count as one point unless specified): -14
Season +/- Points: -26
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