Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Week 10 Power Poll

Week 10 Power Poll:

1. Green Bay (8-0):
I hear and read the arguments for why the Packers defense will be the death of them, and these theories could very well be valid. However, I look at them like a supply and demand graph from Econ 101. You have to supply a certain amount of defense and demand that your offense be able to keep up. So far, no team has been able to make those two points converge on Green Bay's level, and I'm dubious that any will, especially when you factor that Packers defense, which doesn't often stop anyone, does force turnovers and sometimes even score on those turnovers. Then you factor in Randall Cobb as a return man, and the margin of error shrinks even more. But hey, good luck to the Vikes on Sunday.

2. New York Giants (6-2):
I'd say Sunday's win at Foxboro made up for the loss to the Seahawks and the near-loss to Miami, wouldn't you? They beat the Pats on the road without their best receiver (Hakeem Nicks), their best runner (Ahmad Bradshaw) and center David Baas. They held Tom Brady and Co. to 20 points, which doesn't bode well for the 49ers considerably weaker offense on Sunday.

3. San Francisco (7-1):
Then again, the 49ers have far more defensive pop than the Patriots do. We have a legit showdown on the horizon for the NFC's second best team and I couldn't be more excited. Frank Gore's ankle is a concern, but here's a dirty secret... the game's gonna come down to which quarterback plays better.

4. Baltimore (6-2):
How big was that 92-yard drive to beat the Steelers at Pittsburgh for Joe Flacco? Impossible to know at the moment. However what I do know is I like his chances to beat them (or the Jets, Patriots, whomever) in January more at M&T Bank Stadium than on the road and that win gave Baltimore the inside track for home field. Do I trust them at Seattle on Sunday? Not even a little bit.

5. Detroit (6-2):
Ndamukong Suh spent a part of his bye week meeting with Commissioner Roger Goodell on what constitutes a dirty hit and what doesn't. I think flying all the way to Goodell's New York offices was a waste of time, at least as far as this week's opponent, the Bears are concerned, since Chicago has apparently decided to not allow their quarterback to be touched anymore (not that I'm bitter). The Lions are 4-0 on the road, but none of the opponents are over .500.

6. New York Jets (5-3):
Winners of three in a row to get back on track after a three game slide, the Jets are starting to look awfully like the most complete team in the AFC East. Their pass defense is unquestionably the best in the land, but questions persist about the rest of the operation. The Pats are coming to town woozy and teetering, and a decisive loss could really have them questioning themselves. Sanchez had a couple foolish throws against Buffalo in the first half that make me wonder though.

7. Pittsburgh (5-3):
Sunday's loss might have been a different story if they had all their linebackers healthy, but that's woulda-coulda-shoulda. The secondary is still a weakness, more so than their offensive tackles. Why were they more effective against New England than Baltimore? Easy. Patriots have no speed. They go on the road to take on the upstart Bengals on Sunday. Drop that one and all of a sudden the playoffs aren't a given.

8. New Orleans (6-3):
I'd hate to think in what dire straights they'd be without Darren Sproles, who very well might be their MVP through nine games. Run defense? Eh. Secondary? Even worse. Offensive line? Inconsistent. Pass rush? Lacking. The Saints, Falcons and Bucs all seem incapable of winning a road game against each other (or really anyone else worth a damn) which doesn't bode well for a New Orleans outfit that must be exhausted by now, as they're one of four teams who haven't had their bye yet.

9. Chicago (5-3):
I promised the Bears a major boost in the poll if they upset the Birds and I'm a man of my word at least a third of the time. If they keep protecting Jay Cutler like they've been the past couple games, Chicago will be a very tough out, because it's not like there are many questions elsewhere. The return of Earl Bennett gives them another weapon on the boundary. The Lions game should be a gauge of their true level.

10. Cincinnati (6-2): Coming back from a 17-7 road deficit is impressive and rookie Andy Dalton had a career-high three touchdown passes. Still, for all that Dalton poise and A.J. Green acrobatics and defensive toughness, who have these guys beaten? Four games with the AFC North heavies await, starting with Sunday's home tilt against a grouchy Steelers bunch.

11. Houston (6-3): Another six-win squad to whom we could ask the "who'd they beat?" question, except the Texans at least have a home win against Pittsburgh to their credit. This has quietly become a running team, with Matt Schaub just along for the ride, so think how dangerous they'll be once Andre Johnson returns. Somehow they're tops in defense without Mario Williams, and there aren't many heavies left on their schedule. A sneaky-good game on Sunday at Tampa, against a Bucs team that needs it much more than they do.

12. Buffalo (5-3):
They're here solely by the virtue of having beaten New England earlier in the year, but the Jets may have given everyone else a formula on how to beat them by flooding the short zones and forcing Ryan Fitzpatrick to beat them deep. However, not everyone has the secondary to make that strategy work, nor the front seven to keep Fred Jackson in check. They travel to Jerry World on Sunday and a loss would just about sink either team. Another good game in a schedule full of them.

13. New England (5-3):
Just like the Bills got exposed last week, people have figured out how to play New England for a while now. Four man rush, crowd the short stuff, make them go long. Their fastest competent receiver is a tight end (sounds familiar). They've released Albert Haynesworth and Chad Ochocinco (five targets, zero receptions last week) doesn't figure to last much longer. Their defense couldn't stop a Giants team that was missing Bradshaw and Nicks. Sunday's game at the Jets might be their Alamo.

14. Atlanta (5-3): Coming off a two week bye (they blasted Indy on Sunday), the Falcons now have to prove their mettle against the Saints at home. Lose this one and repeating as NFC South champs -- a division where nobody ever seems to win in consecutive years -- will be very difficult. The offense has all its weapons back, but the defense will be a bit more challenged by Drew Brees than they were by Curtis Painter.

15. Tampa Bay (4-4): About as useful on the road as a pet cat, and just as likely to piss themselves rotten. Slowly but surely their passing game is coming together, but their offense has lost its glue in do-everything back Earnest Graham. Defensively, Gerald McCoy is out for the year, which doesn't bode well against the Texans running game on Sunday.

16. Dallas (4-4): At this point there's little question that DeMarco Murray has won the starting job, even if he's challenged in the pass game. However Miles Austin re-injured his hamstring and he'll be out 2-4 weeks and questions persist about Dez Bryant's commitment. On the other side of the ball, they haven't fared well against teams than can pass it, so it's entire possible that the Bills could submarine them.

**THE LIGHTNING ROUND**

17. Kansas City (4-4):
What the eff was that against the winless Dolphins at home? Embarrassing on all fronts. I think right now the winner of this division would be a +7 in their home playoff game (+3 if it's San Diego). They'll either beat the Broncos by three touchdowns or lose by 30, with nothing in between.

18. San Diego (4-4): Despite the three interceptions by Philip Rivers against Green Bay -- two returned for touchdowns -- I think he actually made progress last week, putting up 38 against the defending champs. Most offenses they face won't be half as good as Green Bay's. It's still a very winnable AFC West and they have a huge advantage getting the home game against Oakland (without Darren McFadden) on the short week on Thursday.

19. Tennessee (4-4): They can beat the teams below them and are no threat whatsoever to the ones above them. The perfect #19 team. Chris Johnson and DeAngelo Williams can commiserate over their terrible seasons together.

20. Oakland (4-4): Six interceptions in six quarters for Carson Palmer. BEST. TRADE. EVER. Although I will admit his arm didn't look all that weak on Sunday. If they can somehow pull off a road win at San Diego on Thursday they'll be no worse than tied for first in the division. Unfortunately, they're kinda terrible on defense.

21. Denver (3-5): I like Tim Tebow's chances of beating almost anybody as long as the Broncos can run for 300 yards per game and snatch three interceptions on defense. Can they win at KC? Who the hell knows?

22. Minnesota (2-6): They played the Packers as close as anybody so far this year, but that first game was at home. Now they're in Lambeau and the Packers have a couple of games of rookie Christian Ponder on film.

23. Carolina (2-6): Will Cam Newton win Rookie of the Year? Yes. Should he? Not if Andy Dalton takes the Bengals to the playoffs. Eventually Newton has to win some games, especially against mediocre teams like Tennessee.

24. Jacksonville (2-6): Blaine Gabbert! Curtis Painter! It's Jags vs. Colts on CBS! No seriously if the Colts can't win this one, then 0-16 is all but assured. I've traded for Maurice Jones-Drew, so I'm hoping for 45-0, Jags.

25. Cleveland (3-5): When I think of Madden Curse, I usually picture myself flinging a controller at the wall after throwing another interception against a bud, but Peyton Hillis has been in a funk all season over his contract and is in seemingly no rush to return from his hamstring injury. Now this blah bunch plays the Rams in a game you'd have to pay me well into triple figures to watch, much less cover.

26. Washington (3-5): They might have had a shot against the Niners on Sunday if only they threw it Roy Helu 30 more times. HUUUUUGE game at Miami on Sunday. Nah, just kidding, nobody cares.

27. Arizona (2-6):
Patrick Peterson! As a punt returner, he's sensational. As a corner, he's a sensational punt returner. Will Kevin Kolb play at Philly on Sunday or is he yella?

28. Miami (1-7): I wonder if Vernon Davis gave his brother a lecture or two over the phone this week. I also wonder if the Dolphins didn't screw themselves for the next decade with that needless win at Kansas City. Foolish pride.

29. Seattle (2-6):
I think the Ravens could beat them simply by running the ball every down, punting when need be and letting their defense force turnovers. This is a bad team.

30. St. Louis (1-7):
1-1 with A.J. Feeley starting, 0-6 with Sam Bradford. Quarterback controversy? At what point does Steve Spagnuolo challenge his young QB to play better? Winnable game for Bradford against his Big-12 rival Colt McCoy at Cleveland.

31. Indianapolis (0-9):
Either their owner is just a shameless pathological liar on Twitter, or he's a crazy person. I feel sorry for everyone who has to cover that Jags game coming up.

32. Philadelphia (3-5): Idiots. Soft, pathetic, clueless choking dogs. AAAAAARGH.

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