Dominating Mediocrity a Flashback of 49ers Past

How far we've come with the San Francisco 49ers.

As a kid, I grew up reading Ira Miller's game stories and Monday morning report cards in the San Francisco Chronicle. This was during the glorious 80's, so after a few dominant seasons, Miller got spoiled along with the fans and started to expect perfection. He turned into a harsh grader, and I remember all too well how the Niners would cream some poor saps like the then-St. Louis Cardinals or the Atlanta Falcons like 34-13, and in the paper next day Miller would be giving them a "B-" here or a "C+" there. It got to the point where they were so good that it was just impossible to impress.

So imagine my surprise at how quickly the team has turned around its woebegone fortunes. In past seasons they would have had to play darn near perfectly to beat somebody by two touchdowns, but against the hapless Arizona Cardinals they won easily, 23-7, in a game where they played average at best on offense and below par on special teams.

The defense was spectacular, of course, but you knew all along it would be, didn't you? FOX analyst Brian Billick, when he wasn't butchering names left and right, relayed a quote from 49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio that the Niners wouldn't even have to bother disguising their coverages against overmatched Cardinals QB John Skelton because "he can't read them anyway." Fangio had suggested to us earlier in the week that Skelton pretty much has a radar lock on Larry Fitzgerald, so once the Niners took him out of the game with double teams -- as I predicted -- the game got pretty complicated for Skelton, who was just terrible.

The pass rush was still spotty, though better than in the previous game against the New York Giants, and the run defense gave up 80 yards rushing, mostly due to boredom than anything else, but you can't quibble with four turnovers and three interceptions. Patrick Willis continues to make his case for Defensive Player of the Year honors and picked up his first interception and fourth forced fumble of the season on back-to-back Arizona possessions in the first quarter. I would've liked to see young linemen Ricky Jean Francois and Demarcus Dobbs get some playing time in this one, and Larry Grant at linebacker in relief of Willis and NaVorro Bowman, but can't complain too much because the defense was only on the field a little over 15 minutes, so for them it was like having a half off anyway.

What was a little interesting to me is how Shawntae Spencer continues to be stuck in the doghouse. He was activated last Sunday as a precaution because starter Tarell Brown banged up his knee a bit in practice the Friday before -- fourth safety Madieu Williams was scratched in his place -- but he never got into the game at all, even in garbage time. Instead Tramaine Brock got some work as the fourth corner. To see a quality corner like Spencer, who's still in his prime, go from a starter to third-string so quickly, behind a rookie and another guy in Brock who was signed as an undrafted free agent last year, is startling to see and I wonder what he thinks of this "Who's got it better than us?" business.

For that matter, how's Williams feeling these days? He was signed in late July, presumably to be the starting free safety, and a couple days later the Niners snookered him by re-signing Dashon Goldson. Williams had a bad day against Dallas in Week Two when Goldson was out, but played better as a strong safety in relief of Donte Whitner against Cincinnati and Philadelphia. Since both starting safeties returned to full health, however, he's been shoved to the background. A healthy scratch in favor of Colin Jones? That has to sting.

Offensively it was clear what the 49ers intentions were.

My guess? 49ers come out throwing, hellbent for leather, trying to get a 20-point lead so they can rest some starters going into the Ravens game.

If only I could read the rest of the league as well as these guys... anyway, the 49ers had every intention of blowing the Cardinals out early, and heaven knows Arizona was asking for it the way they took care of the ball, but as has been the running theme all year, the 49ers, who otherwise had little difficulty moving the ball in accumulating 431 yards (their second-highest total of the season) and keeping it an NFL regulation game-high 44:16, were dreadful inside the opponent's 30.

Braylon Edwards (three drops) and Vernon Davis certainly weren't any help. Edwards clearly isn't right physically and was for all intents and purposes benched in the second half. Jim Harbaugh was hot after the game about some missed assignments and poor routes in the passing game and made it clear it wasn't Alex Smith who he was focusing his glare on. Smith's first quarter pass in the left corner of the end zone was a bit hard and about six inches high, but certainly a play a receiver like Edwards should make. You have to wonder if he'd even be out there if Joshua Morgan was healthy, but Harbaugh has nobody to blame for that but himself. If he didn't try to run up the score against Tampa Bay, he'd likely still have Morgan's ankle in one piece.

(If that criticism is too harsh, witness the final two series against Arizona, where Harbaugh, with a far slimmer lead than he enjoyed against the Buccaneers, elected to run the ball every play with Smith under center instead of playing rookie Colin Kaepernick and falling for the temptation of "getting him some work." Deny it all you want, but it was a hard lesson learned for the skipper.)

Davis, meanwhile, jumped for reasons only known to him on a slant pass that was aimed at his waist and wound up being knee-level, and was sloppy enough on a corner route that he couldn't keep his second foot in bounds on a deep ball that would've set the team up 1st-and-goal. He redeemed himself with a nice over-the-shoulder grab in the third quarter for his 34th career touchdown, which set a new franchise record for tight ends, passing Brent Jones.

Edwards' slack was picked up by second-year man Kyle Williams, who's shown all year that he can make the most of what limited opportunities he gets. Williams is quicker than fast, and not very big, but he's got good skills after the catch and may have the best hands on the team. Cardinals defensive coordinator Ray Horton foolishly tried using rookie Sam Acho, a converted defensive end (imagine Vic Fangio putting Aldon Smith on a slot receiver) on Williams and I'm sure he found the results anything but "cute." With Smith rapidly losing faith in Edwards, it won't be surprising to see Williams' playing time increase as he works to be the third option behind Michael Crabtree and Davis.

Speaking of Crabtree, how about the way he carved up Patrick Peterson, Arizona's first-round pick? Crab is no burner, but he was slick enough in his routes to get plenty of separation all game and would've had an easy touchdown in the second quarter had not Smith missed too high and far on a pass where Crabtree deked his way open by a good three yards. His highlight, of course, was an early third quarter reception for 29 yards in which he broke three tackles, and all in all it's the healthiest and most determined he's looked all year; close to the No. 1 receiver he was drafted to be. If he can sustain this form, the 49ers will be quite dangerous indeed.

But only if Smith gets more accurate. The last two games have been put squarely on his shoulders and the results were less than spectacular in the red zone. The offensive line protected him brilliantly, the receivers got open by and large, and still you had a throw that was too high, too hard, too wide, too something. Smith is playing well, but he's not playing great, and he knows it as well as anyone. If the 49ers are to challenge Green Bay in the playoffs, he'll need to be close to perfect.

Until then, we'll be left to enjoy blowouts against the crappy NFC West, wondering how it happened that the 49ers started just decimating people despite the red zone blahs.

Thursday's game at Baltimore -- a.k.a the "Harbowl," will offer a good test against one of the two proper teams left on the 49ers schedule, but to me the short rest spoils it. It's almost asking the impossible for the locals to win this one, and Harbaugh has made no secret of it, making more excuses to the media than I've ever heard from him. I think deep down he doesn't expect to win it.

For one thing, the Ravens are even better at taking the run away than his team; averaging a league-leading 3.3 yards allowed per carry. Justin Smith doesn't go into many games as the second-best defensive lineman, but will do so against Baltimore's Haloti Ngata -- whose matchup with Mike Iupati ought to be a doozy.

For another, I'd be pretty nervous about Ed Reed if I'm the Niners. He remains the premier ball-hawk in the game and I can see him baiting Smith into a pick on a seam route to Davis, making it look like the tight end is open when he's not. Or maybe it'll be like that Amari Spievey interception against Detroit, where Smith will be pressured around the edges and throw while moving up in the pocket, causing the ball to sail high right into Reed's mitts.

Mostly I worry about Ray Rice. As a running back alone he's probably the best the 49ers have faced all season, outside of Shady McCoy with the Eagles, but then you add the receiving dimension, the way they use him on screens and check-downs... well we're really going to see what NaVorro Bowman is made of in this one. I can't imagine them winning without him earning a game ball.

If the 49ers are to win, they will need to jump on Baltimore early, before the Ravens catch up to their tricks and the fatigue sets in. I expect Smith to be throwing early and often once more, to Crabtree especially, but also Davis and Delanie Walker. I do not think Frank Gore, who had 24 carries (which was too much by half) will be a factor, especially with rookie fullback Bruce Miller out with a concussion. The 49ers will run to keep the Ravens D honest, maybe pick up some short-yardage stuff and set up play-action plays, but the bread and butter will come with Smith in the shotgun.

The onus will be on the 49ers to build a two score lead by half before the short week and the jet lag and all that hits them. If they can turn the Ravens one-dimensional, if deep safety Dashon Goldson can keep Torrey Smith from killing them, if Bowman can do the job on Rice, if the tackles can block Terrell Suggs and Paul Kruger, and if Carlos Rogers can win his match-up in the slot with Anquan Boldin, the 49ers have a shot.

And even then they'll probably need Ted Ginn to make an impact in the return game and for David Akers to do a lot better than 50 percent.

Does all that sound pessimistic? It should. Don't blame me, I'm just taking my cues from the head coach. If the 49ers get Philadelphia/NY Giants/Tampa Bay Alex Smith, they have a shot. If they get the Detroit/Arizona version, they fly home 9-2 and still in good shape, but with maybe some doubts creeping in about the QB. We'll see.

The picks:

Green Bay at Detroit (+7): It's en vogue to like the Lions in this game, and maybe if it was a longer road trip for the Pack, I'd bite. The bottom line is I just don't trust Detroit yet, not after they gave up a billion points to the Panthers last week. I don't trust Matthew Stafford to avoid turnovers and I don't trust their special teams to not give up a big play to Randall Cobb. I just see too many scenarios where Aaron Rodgers and Co. get free points instead of the 80-yard drives the 49ers thrive at making opponents try. Packers 38, Lions 24

Miami at Dallas (-7): I'd LOVE to be wrong, but no, I don't see Reggie Bush and Matt Moore spoiling Thanksgiving in Dallas. The Cowboys offense is going too good right now and will be rightly chastened after nearly losing at Washington last week. Cowboys 27, Dolphins 16

San Francisco at Baltimore (-3): The Ravens have played up (or down) to their competition all year and are undefeated at home. I don't see a good reason for that to change on a short week with the Niners flying three time zones. I would've been more convincible -- maybe -- if it was a regular Sunday game. Ravens 23, 49ers 17

Carolina at Indianapolis (+4): Eventually, Cam Newton is gonna have to win a couple ballgames if he wants to win Rookie of the Year, right? Simply avoiding turnovers should be enough to get it done here. Panthers 27, Colts 17

Minnesota at Atlanta (-10): Minny without Adrian Peterson visiting the most "meh" good team in the NFL? Feel my goosebumps. I've got a good feeling about Toby Gerhart in this one because I'm biased and I like him. (I traded Anthony Dixon for him in "Madden"). Falcons 24, Vikings 17

Cleveland at Cincinnati (-8): The Bengals are on a two-game slide against the division heavies and need this game to stay in the playoff hunt. The Steelers and Ravens had little difficulty making inroads on their defense, but they should find Colt McCoy more to their liking. Bengals 26, Browns 7

Tampa Bay at Tennessee (-4): Every time you want to count the Titans out they win, so... Titans 23, Buccaneers 16

Arizona at St. Louis (0): I think Kevin Kolb is playing. I'm taking the Cardinals anyway. Cardinals 17, Rams 13

Buffalo at NY Jets (-8): Do you have any idea how unspeakably bad a team has to be to give the Jets eight points right now? Well, the Bills are worse. And they've lost Fred Jackson. Oy vey. Jets 23, Bills 10.

Houston at Jacksonville (+4): I trust the Texans running backs and defense more than I trust Blaine Gabbert or distrust Matt Leinart. Texans 20, Jaguars 13

Chicago at Oakland (-4): Darren McFadden is still out and the Raiders receivers are beat up as well. The Bears also have an injury situation you may have heard a thing or two about. Even with Caleb Hanie at the helm, I think the Bears play the smarter ballgame, doing enough of the little things and maybe getting a couple of turnovers for the upset. Chicago 17, Raiders 16

Washington at Seattle (-4): If the 49ers win and the Seahawks lose, the locals will clinch the NFC West. Well, I already picked against the Niners, so this won't make you happy either. Seahawks 20, Redskins 13

Denver at San Diego (-6): One coach really doesn't want to win and the other simply coaches like it. Which one applies to Norv Turner and which to John Fox? The beauty is that you have to ask. I wouldn't bet a nickel on this game. Chargers 20, Broncos 10

New England at Philadelphia (+3): If Vince Young plays, I like the Patriots by 30. If Mike Vick plays, I like Philly by seven. I think Young's playing. Oh, and a big eff you to Wes Welker for taking Monday night's game off against the Chiefs. Patriots 41, Eagles 10.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City (+11): How is this the Sunday night game? Don't we have flexes for this? I saw enough of Tyler Palko on Monday against New England, and the Steelers actually have a defense. Big Ben could beat these guys with no thumbs. Steelers 30, Chiefs 10

NY Giants at New Orleans (-7): A crap game on NBC and a good one on ESPN? What is this, bizarro world? Next you're gonna tell me Alex Smith is a top-10 QB and the Niners are a Super Bowl contender (Hey-O). I think the Giants play better when little is expected of them, and it's a homecoming for Eli Manning. Saints 27, Giants 24

The Power Poll:

1. Green Bay (10-0)
2. San Francisco (9-1)
3. Baltimore (7-3)
4. Pittsburgh (7-3)
5. New Orleans (7-3)
6. New England (7-3)
7. Detroit (7-3)
8. New York Giants (6-4)
9. Cincinnati (6-4)
10. Dallas (6-4)
11. Chicago (7-3)
12. Houston (7-3)
13. Oakland (6-4)
14. Atlanta (6-4)
15. Philadelphia (4-6)
16. Tennessee (5-5)
17. Denver (5-5)
18. New York Jets (5-5)
19. Miami (3-7)
20. San Diego (4-6)
21. Tampa Bay (4-6)
22. Seattle (4-6)
23. Washington (3-7)
24. Cleveland (4-6)
25. Buffalo (5-5)
26. Arizona (3-7)
27. Minnesota (2-8)
28. Carolina (2-8)
29. Jacksonville (3-7)
30. Kansas City (4-6)
31. St. Louis (2-8)
32. Indianapolis (0-10)