A peculiarly funky aroma has been associated with San Francisco 49ers quarterback Alex Smith for some, and no matter how much he does to wipe away the past and wash his hands of it, that shitty smell won't escape him in the eyes of critics.
Steve Young, the quarterback here a generation ago, is fond of saying that "perception is reality," and in the NFL the perception, by and large is that the 7-1 Niners have been winning in spite of Smith rather than because of him. It doesn't matter if you tune in to east coast-based ESPN or the NFL Network out of Los Angeles or any point in between. The 49ers are thought of a team with a ferocious defense, a physical running game, a brilliant coach and a liability under center.
"I think (49ers coach Jim) Harbaugh is doing as good a job as there is in this league with what he has," remarked Greg Cosell, an analyst with NFL Films, during an interview with KNBR 680, the local sportstalk monolith. "And you know how I feel about Alex Smith. It’s not personal knock on Alex Smith. Why do you think Jim Harbaugh is doing what he’s doing? He’s telling you –- I don’t have to tell you –- he’s telling you what he thinks of Alex Smith. He’s managing him."
Cosell is alluding to the fact that the 49ers are 30th in the league in passing yards and 32nd -- dead last -- in pass attempts. Despite playing virtually every snap through eight games, Smith is not on pace to pass for even 3,000 yards in an age where 4,000 is ho-hum and some of his contemporaries are threatening to eclipse 5,000. In their most recent game, a 19-11 win at Washington, Smith completed 17-of-24 passes for 200 yards -- and that was his second most prolific game of the season as far as yardage was concerned.
For example of how those numbers resonate with people, here are a couple of sections from Lowell Cohn's column after that game in the Santa Rosa Press Democrat:
Myth: Rookie coach Jim Harbaugh has discovered and unleashed the essential Alex Smith, the great college player taken first in the draft.
So far, so good. It is a myth that Smith has improved leaps and bounds under Harbaugh's tutelage. When it comes to 49ers who've taken a gigantic step forward in 2011 he's well behind guys like Mike Iupati, NaVorro Bowman, Anthony Davis, Dashon Goldson, Ray McDonald, Adam Snyder, Delanie Walker and Ahmad Brooks. Few seem to remember that Smith combined for eight touchdown passes to one interception over his final six appearances in 2010 and that included in that stretch was a game against the Seattle Seahawks on Dec. 12 where he posted the highest rating (130.9) of his career. So Cohn is technically right here, in an ironic sense.
Then he goes off the rails...
That is a myth — although it's a charming myth. If you believe it, you are not watching the 49ers through the lens of reality. Smith has a high completion percentage and a good passer rating. For that, he deserves a hallelujah. But his numbers, game by game, are unassuming and small. You might even say he has the numbers of a losing quarterback.
Smith is fifth in completion percentage at 64.1. The combined won-loss records of the four passers ahead of him (Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Ryan Fitzpatrick) and the one behind (Ben Roethlisberger) is 30-12.
Smith is sixth in passer rating at 97.3. The combined won-loss records of the five passers ahead of him (Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Matthew Stafford and Eli Manning) and the three behind him (Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub and Fitzpatrick) is 48-19.
I'd say Smith has the numbers of a winning quarterback.
Please don't go into a conniption about that last sentence. Smith is playing well and deserves credit. But he is not Aaron Rodgers and he won't be. In Sunday's game, he threw for 200 yards, a mere pittance. Redskins quarterback John Beck, a real loser, threw for 254 yards. Beck threw one TD pass and so did Smith. Beck completed 30 passes and Smith completed a modest 17.
While this paragraph might suggest otherwise, no, Lowell Cohn does not play fantasy football. He is judging quarterback play through the prism of completions and yards, which is akin to judging a baseball player by batting average and RBIs. Beck had nearly twice as many attempts (47) to Smith's 24 in the game and averaged 5.4 yards-per-attempt to Smith's 8.3. Cohn also neglects to mention that Beck's touchdown pass came with 1:10 left and the 49ers nursing a 19-3 lead, but I suppose in his warped view this was an indication that he was more "clutch" than Smith by virtue of having done it late in the game.
Let's skip to the end...
Harbaugh is praising Smith for certain limited virtues: grit, smarts, and for throwing a good pass when called upon. He is not praising Smith for being a game-winner. He is praising him for not being a game-loser. This is a large step forward from previous seasons, but it also expresses Smith's limitations — which still exist.
Ah, there it is. Smith is David Eckstein.
How one person could view things like the 49ers defense and Frank Gore as assets, Cohn views them as limitations that make it difficult to build up the ethos of 49ers quarterback as conquering hero. It's been a few years, so he probably has difficulty remembering that those Bill Walsh/Joe Montana teams ran it more than they passed it and that Montana averaged a bit less than the 532 passing yards and seven touchdowns to Jerry Rice per game that are no doubt running on a perpetual loop inside Cohn's venerable brain.
That's not to compare Smith to Montana, mind you, but even in today's pass-happy NFL, the fact remains that quarterbacks who chuck it all over the yard are the ones who have to. Rodgers, Brady, Manning, Brees, they'd all swap Gore for their running backs in a second if they could, and that goes double for the 49ers defense. I wonder if Cohn's noticed the drop in Schaub's numbers for the Texans. Houston's got a sensational running game and a much-improved defense, so they're not throwing it nearly as much. The Texans are 6-3. I'm guessing Cohn would look at the stats and conclude Schaub was a much better player last year.
49ers offensive coordinator Greg Roman was mystified that the topic of Smith's passing yards was even an issue when he was asked about it on Thursday.
"When you’re up, you’re not going to throw as much, right? And your yards per carry aren’t going to be as high because you’re facing loaded defenses and your defensive stats will probably be down, so to speak, because the other team’s been throwing it around. The only stat that matters is winning, everything else is statistical analysis and information gathering."
Smith has had over 30 pass attempts three times this season. In a completely shocking coincidence, all three were games in which the 49ers were trailing in the fourth quarter. He also happened to lead comeback wins, on the road, in all three, but why should anybody care about or appreciate that when he didn't even throw for 300 yards in any of those games, right?
"When you’re a score or two scores ahead in the second half, especially in the fourth quarter, you would tend to run the ball more," Harbaugh explained. "That could be an indication of things going well."
Harbaugh also came to his quarterback's defense on Wednesday, yet managed to rip off three consecutive sentences that were either flat out lies or staggeringly wrong statements just the same.
"I think people that know football and understand the game appreciate Alex Smith as a very talented quarterback," he said.
Unless Harbaugh believes that the only people who "know football and understand the game" reside in the 49ers coaching offices -- and don't put it past him -- that's wrong.
"He's every bit the elite quarterback as there is playing in the game right now."
Bit of a stretch.
"(I) appreciate all the talent that he has and what he brings to our team."
The truth is you could stand to appreciate it a bit more, coach, by occasionally calling pass plays inside the red zone with a lead and giving Smith's critics ammunition.
The Niners face the 6-2 New York Giants on Sunday in a game that will pit Smith, the third-rated fourth quarter passer in the NFL, against Manning, who's first in that category and the author of four fourth quarterback comebacks, including last week's dazzler at New England. Of course Smith will be less concerned with Manning and more so about a Giants defense that's tops in the NFL with 28 sacks, led by Jason Pierre-Paul (9.5) and Osi Umenyiora (6.0). End Justin Tuck has contributed but two of those 28 quarterback take downs, but he too chimed in with his opinion on Smith.
"He's a guy who they're trying to keep out of position to win the football game," Tuck said. "Obviously, with a back like Frank Gore and the O-Line keeping them in third-and-short situations and even if it's third-and-6 or 7, they still feel that they can pick it up running. I think they're asking Alex not to lose the game. He's playing decent with 10 touchdowns and two picks. He's not putting (their) defense in bad situations. If they get in field-goal range, they're going to run the ball and make sure they come away with some points. If they're not, they are going to run the ball and make sure they punt to put their defense in good positions to stop the offense."
Judging by those statements it's a wonder Harbaugh ever lets Smith pass the ball at all. Still, regardless of how many games he's won or how efficient he's been, most critics won't be sated until Smith slices an opposing secondary to ribbons (you know, again, since that first time against Philadelphia didn't count) and he does it over and over against quality competition. Basically he has to out-duel a star quarterback while Gore and the defense have off days.
Young, the first 49ers quarterback who any of us can remember playing with crappy backs and worse defenses said in an interview with that same sports talk monolith that it couldn't hurt to experiment.
"Offensively, if we’re actually going to threaten –- and we might as well, we’re 7-1, let’s go deep! Let’s do it! –- at some point as we have some games to, not waste, but some games to toy a little bit, not toy, what’s the word, we have games that we have to really push the envelope, let’s do it offensively, let’s throw the ball 40 times just once, just to see how it goes. Let’s go no huddle. Let’s go win it with the passing game."
Like just about every opponent they've played, the Giants are better in pass defense (19th) than stopping the run (24th). They like to stay in their "big nickel" package with three safeties and used it frequently last week against the Patriots even when New England went with the type of jumbo formations Harbaugh favors with extra linemen and multiple tight ends. Logic says the 49ers would be well off continuing to do what's been working and pound Gore early and often.
However, Frank the Tank has a gimpy left ankle and won't be 100 percent. Receiver Hakeem Nicks will be back for the Giants -- and running back Ahmad Bradshaw won't be -- suggesting that Manning will have a good day passing the rock and putting up some points. I dare say the locals will have to score well in the 20's to come out on top in this game, so Smith very well may have to put it up 30, 35 times. If he does, and the 49ers prevail, in a national game on Fox that will be seen by all the pundits back east, then maybe Smith will change some opinions.
Which will still stink, of course.
The Picks
Arizona at Philadelphia (0): The line is even because nobody is sure of Kevin Kolb's status. This feels like cheating, but I need all the help I can get. Eagles 27, Cardinals 17. **FIVE POINT SPECIAL**
Jacksonville at Indianapolis (+3): I'm feeling a big game from Maurice Jones-Drew here. Jaguars 23, Colts 9 **FOUR POINT SPECIAL**
New Orleans at Atlanta (+1): I do not trust the Saints on the road, but hopefully I'm wrong and they win in a shoot-out. Falcons 24, Saints 20
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+3): I know the Steelers will be grumpy, but I believe in Andy Dalton for now. Bengals 20, Steelers 17
St. Louis at Cleveland (-3): I like Joshua Cribbs against that slooow secondary. Sure, why not? Browns 24, Rams 17
Buffalo at Dallas (-6): Ryan Fitzpatrick can't stink it up twice in a row, can he? Bills 27, Cowboys 24
Denver at Kansas City (-4): I can see either team winning by 30. Chiefs 30, Broncos 10
Washington at Miami (-4): Reggie Bush is on fire. I don't know what to do with that information. Dolphins 23, Redskins 13
Houston at Tampa Bay (+4): I like the Texans running game against a Bucs defense missing Gerald McCoy. Texans 27, Buccaneers 20
Tennessee at Carolina (-4): Cam Newton is gonna have a big game here, I'm guessing. Panthers 30, Titans 23
Baltimore at Seattle (+7): God help me Flacco, you better not crap the bed. Ravens 26, Seahawks 10 **TWO POINT SPECIAL**
Detroit at Chicago (-3): I'm starting to buy the Bears, but I think the Lions match up well with them. Which means I have no point. Lions 24, Bears 20
New York Giants at San Francisco (-3): In the interest of full disclosure, would've picked the Giants if Bradshaw was healthy. 49ers 26, Giants 21
New England at New York Jets (-1): I love the Jets in this game, because I'm biased and insane. Jets 27, Patriots 20 **THREE POINT SPECIAL**
Minnesota at Green Bay (-14): Too... many... points. Packers 30, Vikings 20
Last week's W-L: 8-6
Season W-L: 81-49
Week 9 Vs. Spread: 8-6
Season Vs. Spread: 52-71-7
Week 9 +/- Points (All games count as one point unless specified): 12
Season +/- Points: -16
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