For just about any football aficionado Washington head whistle Mike Shanahan's discontent is easy enough to figure. He knows he's bringing a butter knife into a gunfight. His best running back (Tim Hightower) and tight end (Chris Cooley) are lost for the year and his top wide out (Santana Moss) will also be unavailable. Backup tight end Fred Davis is iffy with a wobbly ankle, as is left tackle Trent Williams, who's missed the past two games. Even safety O.J. Atogwe (Mike Singletary's son-in-law) is a long shot to play. We haven't even discussed their quarterback situation yet.
The Redskins have lost three in a row and four of five. Shanahan suffered the first shutout loss of his storied career last week at Buffalo and quarterback John Beck, who is winless in eight career appearances -- five starts -- was sacked a whopping 10 times by a Bills team that came into the game with four quarterback take-downs total in six games. I dare say that your Niners have a wee bit better defense than Buffalo, even without injured defensive end Ray McDonald, but allow for the possibility that playing in Toronto gave the Bills some as of yet unidentified superpowers. Still, barring a few turnovers or some special teams shenanigans (or, if you prefer, "Shanahanigans") it will be tough for the Redskins to have more points than 49ers whirling wunderkind Aldon Smith will have sacks. Call it -2.5 in favor of Washington's offense.
Meanwhile Jim Harbaugh has no fear of the Redskins per se, no more than any other foe in the Freddie P. Soft phylum of your weekly power poll, but if had his druthers the 49ers would rather be playing this game on Nov. 20, four days before their other Maryland tilt against the Baltimore Ravens on Thanksgiving. The Niners fought the league's scheduling committee long and hard about the unfairness of having to fly cross-country to crab cake county twice in 20 days, but were met with the usual unsympathetic shrugs they've come to expect from the league ever since the Yorks over ownership from the disgraced Eddie D. Let's be real about it -- there are janitors in that building that Commish Goodell respects more than plucky youngster Jed York, so expect the 49ers to be boned by the schedule fairy for a bit longer until they become established contenders again.
Still, if you have to fly all the way out there you might as well win, so in that sense a trip to the nation's capitol should be perfectly pleasant for your 49ers. The 'skins are their fifth straight foe that is far more accommodating to opposing runners than they are to passers, and as you're no doubt aware that's a hanging slider right into the wheelhouse of a
Also, for someone like Harbaugh who's so attuned to the pulse of his team, one would think that this would be the week he'll look to get Vernon Davis some touches, considering that it's a homecoming game for Davis, who's from the D.C. area. Ol' Vern contributed to the nation's economy by purchasing 90 or so tickets for friends and family and presumably it wasn't so they could watch him block Ryan Kerrigan all afternoon. Davis tried hard to be unquotable as possible with us ink-stained wretches on Thursday, but it was still pretty clear that he measures his self-worth in catches and touchdowns rather than seal blocks and double-teams drawn. Some appeasement is in order.
The game will present another reunion of sorts for 49ers corner Carlos Rogers, whose departure after six up-and-down seasons in Washington drew some interesting comments from Shanahan and former teammates. Rogers, who has stated ad nauseum that he did not enjoy his last few seasons as a Redskin and that he wanted out two years ago, was mocked by Fred Davis and DeAngelo Hall for his poor hands and ripped by Shanahan for "inconsistent" play. While the Washington coach was totally complimentary of Rogers to the San Francisco media, he told his local beat writers that if he felt that Rogers merited a long-term contract that he'd still be a Redskin. Rogers already has three interceptions for San Francisco after never having more than two in any season for Washington, and he'll no doubt be looking to make a point to his bronzed former boss.
Beyond all that there really aren't many story angles to discuss. The 49ers haven't strung two halves together on offense in any of their road games, but 30 minutes of competent football should more than suffice against a punchless Washington outfit. Harbaugh will be looking to get out of there quick and painless and Shanahan will probably be more preoccupied with scouting reports on Landry Jones and Matt Barkley than he will with the game plan. Nothing interesting ever happens in Washington and there's no reason to expect that to change on Sunday.
Week 8 Picks:
San Francisco at Washington (+4): As near as I can figure, the Redskins have nothing going for them aside from being home, and even that may be a drawback as their fans figure to let them have it if things get ugly early. Fortunately for them, the Niners have a gnarly habit of playing only one half of football per game on offense and back-to-back shutouts are fairly rare in the NFL, so this should be a close one. 49ers 23, Redskins 16
Atlanta at Indianapolis (+8): The Colts insist that they're trying and they will continue to. Doesn't that make this whole saga even sadder? Also, Atlanta gets Julio Jones back, just to make this match-up even more lopsided. Falcons 30, Colts 13 **FOUR POINT PICK**
New York Jets at Buffalo (-2): I'd love to pay more attention to this one live, but those damn Niners will selfishly monopolize my attention once more. What I like about the game is that we'll be forced to take the winner seriously while the loser won't suffer too badly. Kinda gives me a warm feeling as I dislike neither team. Jets 20, Bills 17
Seattle at Dallas (-12): Ugh. The only way this game gets my attention is if the Seahawks are up 10 in the fourth quarter. The sight of a smiling Tony Romo gives me gas. Cowboys 34, Seahawks 14
Miami at Kansas City (-5): Seems like a low line but A) the Chiefs have a short week B) the Dolphins play close games and C) Kansas City was secretly kind of terrible against the Chargers. Still, how many narrow losses in a row can Miami have? At some point they'll either win or lose big, right? Chiefs 26, Dolphins 9
Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-9): Vegas has caught on to the Jekyll & Hide nature of these two teams with their home/road splits, so this line makes pretty good sense, as the quarterbacks have been turnover machines on the road. (Or, in Josh Freeman's case, at "home" in England.) Drew Brees needs the running game to take a bit of pressure on him to sell the play-action and to give pass rushers something to think about. I think nine points is too much for a division rivarly game. Saints 30, Buccaneers 23
Cleveland at Houston (-11): I admit the Browns have a low-watt offense and the Texans have been locking people up the last couple of weeks, but Cleveland plays too good on defense in their own right to lay 11. I think Colt McCoy will play fairly well in what amounts to a homecoming for him. Texans 23, Browns 17
Cincinnati at Tennessee (-3): I'm kind of shocked the Titans are favored in this one. If the Bengals can win at Seattle, why not Tennessee? Don't be fooled by the Titans record. They've beaten nobody, save for a Week 2 win over a Baltimore team that was still euphoric over the beatdown they handed Pittsburgh the week before. Easy upset pick (which means it's doomed). Bengals 26, Titans 17 **SIX POINT PICK**
Denver at Oakland (-9): I don't care if Tim Tebow is the worse than Babe Laufenberg, I'm laying nine with the carcass of Carson Palmer playing for Oakland. Also, there's a good chance Darren McFadden will be out. Turnovers will be the only way either team can score. Raiders 16, Broncos 13
New York Giants at New England (-9): Patriots fans will be at full boil against the team that robbed them of a perfect season. The Giants are actually the more complete team, thanks to their ferocious pass rush and I was this close to picking them in an upset, but with Ahmad Bradshaw highly unlikely to play with a cracked bone in his foot, I just can't do it. Still, if Eli Manning just drops back to pass every play, I like that match-up against the Patriots secondary (assuming Hakeem Nicks plays). Should be a wild one. Patriots 27, Giants 24
St. Louis at Arizona (-2): Sam Bradford is probably gonna play for St. Louis and John Skelton will start for Arizona. It doesn't seem possible that Skelton could be any worse than Kevin Kolb, but until proven otherwise, I have to assume he will be. Rams 23, Cardinals 16 **EIGHT POINT PICK**
Green Bay at San Diego (+6): A interception-prone quarterback facing guys like Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams and Sam Shields? This sounds fairly simple. And if I'm wrong, I'll hardly cry about a Packers loss. Packers 34, Chargers 20 **TEN POINT PICK**
Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-4): The Steelers are a lot hotter but the Ravens are much healthier. I'm gonna go with the team that doesn't have Joe Flacco playing in prime time on the road. We might see a couple loud pops in this one. Steelers 24, Ravens 17
Chicago at Philadelphia (-8): I think the birds have found themselves and I'm pretty excited about the match-up of the Eagles defensive line against the Bears big uglies. I'm not as excited about Matt Forte against Philly's linebackers and safeties. Oh well. Eagles 30, Bears 20
Last week's W-L: 8-5
Season W-L: 73-43
Week 8 Vs. Spread: 5-7-1
Season Vs. Spread: 44-65-7
Week 8 +/- Points (All games count as one point unless specified): -2
Season +/- Points: -28
I forgot to do extra point picks last week (just as well) so I'll double them up this week, Berman-style. Good luck!
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