So, what are we to take from the 49ers loss to the Cowboys? Are they the team that broke Tony Romo's ribs or the one that just sacked him once while getting eviscerated to the tune of 427 passing yards? Are they the offense that had Dallas totally flummoxed on third down, converting 8-of-10 first half opportunities despite being without their top two receivers; or the one that got sacked six times and shutout in third down conversions in the second half and overtime?
Most of all, are they the outfit that got out-gained 472 yards to 206 by a Dallas team that was missing Dez Bryant, Terence Newman and Orlando Scandrick and who had Romo, and his top three skill players all get banged up during the game; or the ones who were one play away from winning the game on two separate occasions? Indeed all the 49ers needed was a stop on 4th-and-5 or for for Cowboys kicker Dan Bailey, who hooked a 21-yard attempt in the first quarter, to do so again with a 48-yarder at the gun. Instead, the S.O.B hit one so down the middle that it would've been good in the Arena League.
Bill Parcells was fond of saying "You are what your record says you are," but with all due respect to that miserable bastard, there are games where a loss is a win and and games where a win is a loss. Then there are those wins that count double and losses that crush whole seasons. So with that, here are the winners and losers to take away from the 27-24 overtime loss:
Winners:
StubHub: First and foremost. They must have made a killing with their service charges and hidden fees and whatnot, accommodating all those Cowboys fans. Good lord, I was half expecting to see 10-gallon hats and bolo ties in the press box.
Jim Harbaugh: For one half darn near every play he dialed up was working. They were picking up all of Dallas blitzes, and Smith was finding guys open on out routes and hitches and converting third downs. The game plan showed, definitively, that they were indeed "saving" some things for the Cowboys that they didn't use the week before against Seattle. As we go, I would expect the offense to open up more and more and for Harbaugh to find answers to how people are playing his guys.
Alex Smith: Was he as good as his stats suggest? Well, no. But he made a number of fine throws, including perfect touchdown strikes to Kyle Williams and Delanie Walker and even his improvised rollout bomb to Frank Gore looked to be on the money before Bradie James took an interference penalty to break it up. Also, he gets credit for having to make do without his starting receivers and for not fumbling on all those shots he took in the second half.
Kyle Williams: Yeah, the kid has just one pass thrown his way, but he made a great catch in the corner of the end zone and will likely see more playing time with Braylon Edwards out and Michael Crabtree limping around. I've said it before, he probably runs the best slant route on the team, and with his quickness and run-after-catch ability, Williams is the one guy who can burn blitzes by taking a short hot route a long way. We'll have to see if it comes into play.
Bruce Miller: The first two games couldn't have gone much better for him. The guy in front of him on the depth chart, Moran Norris, has been a tire fire thus far, and now he's injured. Miller will crack the lineup this Sunday.
Ray McDonald: Not a great game, but another sack and one other hit on Romo. Two games in, he's looked every bit the $4 million defensive end. Kudos.
NaVorro Bowman: Not only has he held up well against the run, but he was better in coverage than just about any 49er on Sunday. He broke up two passes and I can't remember any that he gave up. Would've liked to seen him blitz more though.
Carlos Rogers: He was beaten two or three times, but he got his hand (or his head) on quite a few as well. Everyone will remember the overtime play to Jesse Holley, but for three-and-a-half quarters Rogers played outstanding football.
Losers:
49ers fans: You ought to be ashamed of yourselves. Yes, your stadium is an eyesore. Yes, the parking situation is an abomination. Yes, there was potential for crowd violence a la the preseason mess with Oakland. Still, your team isn't that bad and it's downright embarrassing that it turned into a Cowboys home game. The crowd was -- and this is conservative -- at least 55 percent in favor of Dallas. Perhaps it was a gigantic middle finger to ownership, who had gotten the message out in advance of the game that they wanted the stands to be "a sea of red." Maybe it was a way of telling the Yorks "We'll buy your gear and show up to your games when you get a legitimate stadium and some good players."
Or maybe everyone in California is broke and a buck is a buck.
Jim Harbaugh: Save for one nice play-call late in the third quarter where Smith found Walker matched up one-on-one by outside linebacker Anthony Spencer and took advantage, Harbaugh and Greg Roman couldn't draw up anything to bail the offense. Three times Smith rolled out or executed play-fakes where there was an unblocked rusher waiting to meet him, and any plan that calls for DeMarcus Ware to not be accounted for seems pretty stupid to me.
Too often the plays they were trying were too cute, the kind of calls designed to take advantage of over-aggressive, inexperienced front sevens. Dallas was aggressive, but they've got a lot of veterans there who know how to read tells and diagnose plays. I think a couple times the 49ers assumed that when the Cowboys had six or seven snarling guys at the line that at least two or three would drop back in coverage and the line would be able to zone up whoever rushed. Instead, Dallas just sent everyone and that left people who weren't blocked. If the Cowboys guessed correctly on who the hot route was, Smith didn't have time to look for a second option and he was toast.
Of course Harbaugh's biggest blunder was taking the field goal with 11:12 to go to push the score to 24-14 instead of accepting a 1st-and-ten at Dallas' 22-yard-line, but we covered that extensively on Monday.
Alex Smith: How much blame does he deserve for not adjusting the line to pick up some of those blitzes in the second half or for not audibling out of bad plays? It's hard to say because we don't know the extent of his responsibilities. Maybe he did change the protections and guys simply missed their assignments. What we can blame Smith for are two throws that came back-to-back in the third quarter. On the interception he thought Davis was running a button hook. Davis, however, correctly adjusted his route to an out when he saw how much room he had to the sideline. Even if he ran the hook that Smith wanted, Dallas' Alan Ball undercut it and still would've picked it off. Smith's real sin, however, was the play before, when he rolled left and badly overshot a wide open Walker, who would've gained enough yards for a first down.
Also, I think he should've lobbied Harbaugh more, not just to keep the ball
after that penalty on Akers' field goal, but even before that, when Harbaugh elected to kick on 4th-and-1 from the 37. A good quarterback fights these decisions, but it's simply not in Smith's nature to be confrontational or argumentative.
Kendall Hunter: Welcome to life in the NFL, kid. You happened to get drafted by a team where the running back has more influence in the organization than the quarterback does. Don't worry, you'll get a chance to play when Gore gets his inevitable injury in a couple weeks.
Vernon Davis: He was asked to block a bunch against Dallas on pass plays (didn't work) and doubled when he did go on routes. These things will happen without Crabtree and Edwards. Davis is already grumpy with Harbaugh, but the 49ers do have a few games coming up against teams who can't cover tight ends well.
Jonathan Goodwin: Beaten soundly by Jay Ratliff two or three times, leading to sacks on Smith, including one in overtime that torpedoed the 49ers last chance of winning the game. He also had a terrible shotgun snap that Smith did well to turn into a positive play.
Mike Iupati: Whiffed on blocks in the run game and pass game. Continues to be confused by stunts and twists. Worst of all, I don't sense any fire from him at all.
Joe Staley: Beaten for one sack by Ware but a lot of the pressure Dallas had came from the gap between him and Iupati.
Chilo Rachal: Still getting subbed out for Adam Snyder a couple series per game. That should tell you something.
Anthony Davis: The 49ers best lineman on Sunday. Which is like being their handsomest beat reporter.
Moran Norris: Somewhere in the NFL there must be a worse starting fullback, but I can't think of one of the top off my head.
Ahmad Brooks: What a ticky-tack neutral zone call that was, giving Dallas new life and turning what should've been at the worst a 14-0 halftime lead into 14-7. Still, Ahmad, dude, you're looking right at the ball. It's 3rd-and-forever. Get a full foot behind it, just to be safe.
Tarell Brown: Beaten regularly by the likes of Holley and Kevin Ogletree. Shawntae Spencer will claim the starting job any day now.
Tramaine Brock: Nice interception and all, but putting him in the slot against Miles Austin was painful to watch. He's gonna be the odd man out of the lineup.
Donte Whitner: Witten chewed him up all afternoon. Just a hopeless match-up. Bit on a play-fake in overtime (as did Rogers), which was silly because Dallas hasn't been able to run the ball since last October.
Madieu Williams: P-U.
Reggie Smith: How stiff are those hips? I thought the 49ers traded Taylor Mays away.
Does that seem unfair, to have far more losers than winners? Well, I repeat, the yardage was 472 to 206. Should we throw the 49ers a parade? The offensive line is a sieve and the defense looks very vulnerable when people stretch them out and forget about running. I was disappointed in Vic Fangio for not calling more blitzes and trying to confuse Romo a bit. Instead the Niners got dinked-and-dunked to death in fine Greg Manusky fashion. We'll see if he gets any trickier against a rookie QB this Sunday in Cincinnati's Andy Dalton. It won't do to have him be less confused out there than Smith.
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Injury notes:
Harbaugh, in a rare lapse of his usual thousand-yard stare and dismissive non-answer routine, actually revealed that Braylon Edwards "will be out a bit" and that the receiver "underwent a procedure" on his knee. Look for Edwards to be out until the seventh game, home vs. his former club, the Browns. The Niners have their bye before that and the sixth game is on the turf at Detroit, so I think it'll be a stretch to see him play in that one, though a losing streak may change the prognosis. That's what makes this Cincinnati game so important. They simply have to win it, because the schedule gets pretty hairy the three weeks after that.
Harbaugh also said that Michael Crabtree will "most likely" play on Sunday. We saw Crabtree running routes at what looked to be full speed in individual drills, but at his locker he didn't look like someone champing at the bit to go get 'em. "It's only been three days," he said. "How much different could (his foot injury) be in three days?"
Crabtree was just "limited" in practice on Wednesday, per the official report, so we'll see.
My feeling: Crabtree really wanted to play against his hometown Cowboys and was disappointed about not getting the chance. He's probably not nearly as stoked about facing the Bengals. He'll play, but...
Alex Smith apparently sustained a concussion during Sunday's game. Nice enough for them to mention it on Wednesday, on an injury report that was sent in at 4:38 p.m... Smith seemed lucid enough during his press conference and was a full participant in practice, so it must have been a minor one.
Shawntae Spencer told CSN Bay Area's Mindi Bach that he's been practicing in full for two weeks and he's completely healed from his hamstring injury. However, he said that coaches want to see how he fits into the scheme on the practice field before throwing him out there in games. He added that he understands the scheme, but has to convince them of that. The way Brown and Brock have played, I think Spencer will get his chance, and soon.
Dashon Goldson also looked spry during individual drills, and I think he's the starter this week unless he has some kind of set back. The team desperately needs him back because both Madieu Williams and Reggie Smith were liabilities on Sunday. The team missed Goldson a lot more than they missed Spencer or Crabtree or even Edwards.
Moran Norris' injury was revealed to be a fibula problem, and despite him telling Maiocco that he's "fine" the team already declared him out for Sunday. Good lord.
Are you ready for Bruce Miller?
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49ers Statistical Rankings, presented without comment.
49ers Offensive Rankings:
Rushing: 79.5 YPG (26th); Yards Per Carry: 2.8 (29th);
Rushing Touchdowns: 2 (T-6th);
Passing: 128.0 YPG (29th); Completion Percentage (T-4th);
Yards Per Attempt: 6.9 (T-21st);
Passing Touchdowns: 2 (T-23rd); Interceptions: 1 (T-5th);
Sacks: 6 (T-22nd);
QB Rating: 95.2 (11th); 3rd Down Percentage: 32.1 (23rd);
Yards Per Game: 207.5 (31st); Scoring: 28.5 (9th)
49ers Defensive Rankings:
Rushing: 54.5 YPG (1st); Yards Per Carry: 2.5 (1st);
Rushing Touchdowns: 0 (T-1st)
Passing: 291.0 YPG (25th); Completion Percentage: 58.8 (12th);
Yards Per Attempt: 7.9 (20th);
Passing Touchdowns: 5 (30th); Interceptions: 3 (T-4th);
Sacks: 6 (T-6th);
Fumbles Forced: 4 (T-2nd); Fumbles Recovered: 2 (T-7th);
3rd Down Percentage: 37.9 (15th); Yards Per Game: 345.5 (T-17th); Scoring: 22.0 (T-12th)
49ers Special Teams Rankings:
Kickoff Return: 43.8 Avg (1st); Kickoff Return Allowed: 23.3 Avg (15th);
Punt Return: 15.2 Avg (5th); Punt Return Allowed: 9.3 Avg (T-17th);
Field Goal Percentage: 100.0 (T-1st); Net Punt Average: 51.4 Yards (2nd)
Giveaway/Takeaway:
Giveaways: 1 (T-2nd); Takeaways: 5 (T-4th); Plus/Minus: +4 (T-3rd)
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Monday, September 19, 2011
Harbaugh Channels Ghosts of Singetary, 49ers Lose In Overtime To Cowboys
SAN FRANCISCO -- It's not the most elegant way to begin a game story, but it's the 500-lb. pink gorilla in the room, so why prolong the agony? Jim Harbaugh's decision to take the 55-yard field goal (which David Akers booted so convincingly that it would've been good from 65) instead of accepting the 15-yard "leveraging" penalty on Dallas that would've given the 49ers a 1st-and-10 from the Cowboys 22-yard-line with a 21-14 lead and 11:12 left in the game was A) wrong B) asinine C) indefensible D) short-sighted E) telling and F) overblown.
It was not the reason the 49ers lost to the Cowboys 27-24 in overtime, though it's so convenient and easy to think that it was.
It was wrong because being up 24-14 with 11:12 to go is not as good as being up 24-14 with eight minutes and change to go, which is precisely the situation the 49ers would've been facing had they simply accepted the penalty and ran Frank Gore up the gut three straight times. Even if they don't gain an inch, it's a 39-yard field goal for Akers, a man who can split the uprights with bowel movements longer than 39 yards. It was an unusually hot day by Candlestick standards and the only wind was coming from the press box, so yes, I think Akers could be trusted to deliver there.
It was asinine because the team faced almost the exact same scenario last week, when Akers was roughed on a field goal. Then Harbaugh accepted the penalty, they ran three fruitless plays, they wasted two minutes of our lives and Akers kicked again. The decision worked, they won the game, so why fix something that wasn't broken? Alex Smith has referenced the Albert Einstein in the past about the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results, so how do we define the 49ers, who willfully deviate decisions that worked?
It was indefensible because the only scenario where that decision backfires is if you have a turnover on a running play or a string of holding calls to back them up from field goal range to San Jose. However, that kind of negative thinking doesn't jibe with the mentality of a team that got a 21-14 lead on the Cowboys in the first place. The three touchdown drives didn't materialize out of thin air. Ted Ginn didn't return three kicks to the house. Smith played well, made good decisions and threw the ball accurately to move the sticks. If you trusted him to do it for the first 48:48 of the game, then you should trust him for the final 11:12. That goes for every situation, from not committing holding penalties (they didn't), to Gore not fumbling (he didn't), to center Jonathan Goodwin not having any bad snaps (ditto). The same guys that got you the lead with were in the huddle, and they deserved the rope to hang themselves with.
It was short-sighted because even if they had won the game, Harbaugh's decision would've been a big neon sign Smith, to the offensive players and to the rest of the football watching world that read, "I DO NOT TRUST YOU." It simply does not bode well for future games. Why would the quarterback have confidence in himself if his coach doesn't? Why would the linemen? For that matter, why would the players trust each other or their coach? It's better to lose and show the players you have faith in them, even if you don't, than to win by hedging your bets and being openly petrified.
It was telling because a coach can hype up and praise and defend his players to the media all day long, but they're just words. Actions are more telling and Harbaugh sure made it appear as though he doesn't think he has much to work with. It's very simple, the way people view Harbaugh's decision. The ones who think it was wrong simply think that Smith is a mediocre starting quarterback. The ones who agree with Harbaugh (I'm not naming names but they're easy to find) view Smith along the lines of those Charlie Brown cartoons where he's pitching in little league and getting his clothes knocked off, with every one of his pitches producing line drive -- think Smith is so incompetent that he can't even be trusted to execute three hand-offs without something, anything, going wrong. They view every single positive play in his career as a residue of luck and all the negative ones as indicators of his true wretchedness.
It's worth noting just the fact that all our hypothetical scenarios deal with Smith just handing the ball three times goes to show how little our expectations are. It's simply unimaginable to contemplate Smith being allowed to throw from inside the 20-yard line with a fourth quarter lead. There's that little trust and faith in him, both from inside and outside the organization. The same people who are happy with Harbaugh's decision to take the points are the ones who wouldn't trust him to kneel down in properly at the end of a game without it going wrong.
However, given all of that, the decision was overblown because what lost the 49ers the game was the fact the same two units that led to most of their losses in the Mike Singletary era while Smith and the play-calling took the blame: the offensive line and the secondary.
Whatever adjustments the Cowboys made in the second half, the line was a nightmare. Smith was sacked on six of his 30 drop-backs, a ratio of 20 percent that's unspeakably awful. Gore was limited to 47 yards on 20 carries. On a line with three first-round picks, a high second-round pick and a two-time Pro Bowler at center, it's mind-boggling how they generate so little push, how they continue to get blown off the ball on snaps, and how often they let people through completely unblocked.
Harbaugh did everything he could to buy Smith time for his receivers. He kept six and seven guys in to block, including Vernon Davis on most plays (Davis was decidedly unhappy about it). He called as many running plays he could in the hopes of keeping Dallas pass-rushers honest. It didn't matter. The Cowboys snarling front seven simply assaulted Gore on their way to Smith. Without Michael Crabtree (inactive) or Braylon Edwards (out after two plays with a knee injury) Smith didn't have people who could get open consistently, as the Cowboys did a good job of guessing who the hot routes were going to be and making him go to the second option. By then Smith was on his back.
The only way Gore will have room to run is if defenses start respecting Smith, and the only way they'll start doing that is if he burns them repeatedly on blitzes. Having Crabtree and Edwards healthy would help, but what would help more is to actually pick up the blitzes in the first place and to fire off the ball once in a while on those runs. Mike Iupati in particular had a bad game but Anthony Davis, Chilo Rachal, Jonathan Goodwin and Joe Staley all had afternoons to forget.
Defensively, the pass rush started off strong enough to fracture a couple of Tony Romo's ribs and forced him to throw off his back foot quite a bit in the first half. They also had the fortune of playing against Jon Kitna for most of the third quarter, and Kitna threw some horrific passes, leading to a pair of interceptions; one each by Donte Whitner and Tramaine Brock. As usual, they completely took away the running game, holding Dallas to 45 yards on 20 useless carries. At this point it's a wonder why anyone ever bothers calling a run against the 49ers. They're just doing them a favor.
Eventually Dallas tightened up their protection, spread the 49ers defense out and Romo checked back in and started clicking with his receivers -- mainly Miles Austin (who had three touchdowns) and Jason Witten, who were both playing hurt themselves. Romo repeatedly abused all the backups forced into prominent roles on the 49ers secondary, guys like Tarell Brown, Madieu Williams and Reggie Smith. However, it's not like this secondary played any well last year when they had Dashon Goldson and Shawntae Spencer, so expecting those two to be saviors might be wishful thinking.
Whitner is a useful player in that he's good at stopping the run and can do a decent job against most tight ends, but against the cream of the crop like Witten, he's not gonna come out on top. The best player in the secondary, and someone who looks to be a great free agent signing, is corner Carlos Rogers. The team actually had him in the slot against Witten quite a bit and he won some of those battles and lost some. He actually played quite well in the game and got his hand -- and his helmet -- on some balls, and had the deflection on Brock's interception. Unfortunately, Rogers' worst play came in overtime, when both he and Whitner bit on a play-action fake and froze, allowing Jesse Holley of all people to get behind them for the crushing 77-yard reception and the winning field goal.
It's crazy to think the 49ers were one play from winning this game on two separate occasions. Dallas had to convert a 4th-and-5 late in the game, which they did on a sideline pass to Witten. They also had to have Dan Bailey make a 48-yard field goal at the gun when he had missed a chip shot early in the game. Still, for the second half they completely dominated both lines of scrimmage and outgained the 49ers in the game 472 yards to 206. In many aspects both teams were lucky to even get to overtime, and the Cowboys took advantage of their luck while the 49ers did not.
For his part Smith played quite well, and I'm sure going into the game most fans would've gladly taken two touchdown passes, one interception, no fumbles and a 99.1 QB rating from him. He wasn't the problem. Smith had a Romo-like play in the second quarter when he completely missed the shotgun snap, caught the ball on the bounce while running backward to retrieve it, rolled to the right like Montana against Dallas 30-years ago, and found Gore in the end zone 40 yards downfield. It would've been a touchdown had Gore not been interfered with by a desperate Cowboys defender, and the 49ers scored on the next play from one-yard out all the same.
The next drive Smith had a series of third-down conversions and found Kyle Williams in the left corner on a beautiful 12-yard pass over Mike Jenkins' shoulder to make it 14-0. His one bad decision in the second half, trying to force a pass to Davis early in the third quarter, was intercepted and led to Austin's second touchdown which tied the game at 14, but Smith made his best pass shortly after, after Brock's intercepted Kitna. He found a mismatch with tight end Delanie Walker against Dallas' Anthony Spencer, nominally a pass-rusher and hit him in stride on a looping 29-yard score to make it 21-14. It was the only drive in the second half and overtime that didn't have one negative play, and that was probably because it lasted all of one play.
If Smith is to be criticized for anything, except not making better blocking audibles to counter Dallas' pass rush, it's that he didn't challenge Harbaugh for accepting that field goal. A better quarterback wouldn't have even look his coach's way and simply jogged out onto the field. Smith should've at least pushed for it, demanded it. That he doesn't have the personality to do so is why he never meshed with Singletary and why he can never be an elite player. It's just not in him to be the forceful, dominant personality you need at that position.
For now, that personality remains Harbaugh, for better or worse. He said he'd know more about his team after a game or two, and the same is true of his players knowing more about him. Right now he knows he's got some real problems at offensive line and the secondary and some health issues at receiver. His players know he coaches scared, playing not-to-lose instead of going for the throat, just like the last guy and the guy before him.
They'll have 14 games this season to learn more about each other, and for now, it appears, only 14.
It was not the reason the 49ers lost to the Cowboys 27-24 in overtime, though it's so convenient and easy to think that it was.
It was wrong because being up 24-14 with 11:12 to go is not as good as being up 24-14 with eight minutes and change to go, which is precisely the situation the 49ers would've been facing had they simply accepted the penalty and ran Frank Gore up the gut three straight times. Even if they don't gain an inch, it's a 39-yard field goal for Akers, a man who can split the uprights with bowel movements longer than 39 yards. It was an unusually hot day by Candlestick standards and the only wind was coming from the press box, so yes, I think Akers could be trusted to deliver there.
It was asinine because the team faced almost the exact same scenario last week, when Akers was roughed on a field goal. Then Harbaugh accepted the penalty, they ran three fruitless plays, they wasted two minutes of our lives and Akers kicked again. The decision worked, they won the game, so why fix something that wasn't broken? Alex Smith has referenced the Albert Einstein in the past about the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results, so how do we define the 49ers, who willfully deviate decisions that worked?
It was indefensible because the only scenario where that decision backfires is if you have a turnover on a running play or a string of holding calls to back them up from field goal range to San Jose. However, that kind of negative thinking doesn't jibe with the mentality of a team that got a 21-14 lead on the Cowboys in the first place. The three touchdown drives didn't materialize out of thin air. Ted Ginn didn't return three kicks to the house. Smith played well, made good decisions and threw the ball accurately to move the sticks. If you trusted him to do it for the first 48:48 of the game, then you should trust him for the final 11:12. That goes for every situation, from not committing holding penalties (they didn't), to Gore not fumbling (he didn't), to center Jonathan Goodwin not having any bad snaps (ditto). The same guys that got you the lead with were in the huddle, and they deserved the rope to hang themselves with.
It was short-sighted because even if they had won the game, Harbaugh's decision would've been a big neon sign Smith, to the offensive players and to the rest of the football watching world that read, "I DO NOT TRUST YOU." It simply does not bode well for future games. Why would the quarterback have confidence in himself if his coach doesn't? Why would the linemen? For that matter, why would the players trust each other or their coach? It's better to lose and show the players you have faith in them, even if you don't, than to win by hedging your bets and being openly petrified.
It was telling because a coach can hype up and praise and defend his players to the media all day long, but they're just words. Actions are more telling and Harbaugh sure made it appear as though he doesn't think he has much to work with. It's very simple, the way people view Harbaugh's decision. The ones who think it was wrong simply think that Smith is a mediocre starting quarterback. The ones who agree with Harbaugh (I'm not naming names but they're easy to find) view Smith along the lines of those Charlie Brown cartoons where he's pitching in little league and getting his clothes knocked off, with every one of his pitches producing line drive -- think Smith is so incompetent that he can't even be trusted to execute three hand-offs without something, anything, going wrong. They view every single positive play in his career as a residue of luck and all the negative ones as indicators of his true wretchedness.
It's worth noting just the fact that all our hypothetical scenarios deal with Smith just handing the ball three times goes to show how little our expectations are. It's simply unimaginable to contemplate Smith being allowed to throw from inside the 20-yard line with a fourth quarter lead. There's that little trust and faith in him, both from inside and outside the organization. The same people who are happy with Harbaugh's decision to take the points are the ones who wouldn't trust him to kneel down in properly at the end of a game without it going wrong.
However, given all of that, the decision was overblown because what lost the 49ers the game was the fact the same two units that led to most of their losses in the Mike Singletary era while Smith and the play-calling took the blame: the offensive line and the secondary.
Whatever adjustments the Cowboys made in the second half, the line was a nightmare. Smith was sacked on six of his 30 drop-backs, a ratio of 20 percent that's unspeakably awful. Gore was limited to 47 yards on 20 carries. On a line with three first-round picks, a high second-round pick and a two-time Pro Bowler at center, it's mind-boggling how they generate so little push, how they continue to get blown off the ball on snaps, and how often they let people through completely unblocked.
Harbaugh did everything he could to buy Smith time for his receivers. He kept six and seven guys in to block, including Vernon Davis on most plays (Davis was decidedly unhappy about it). He called as many running plays he could in the hopes of keeping Dallas pass-rushers honest. It didn't matter. The Cowboys snarling front seven simply assaulted Gore on their way to Smith. Without Michael Crabtree (inactive) or Braylon Edwards (out after two plays with a knee injury) Smith didn't have people who could get open consistently, as the Cowboys did a good job of guessing who the hot routes were going to be and making him go to the second option. By then Smith was on his back.
The only way Gore will have room to run is if defenses start respecting Smith, and the only way they'll start doing that is if he burns them repeatedly on blitzes. Having Crabtree and Edwards healthy would help, but what would help more is to actually pick up the blitzes in the first place and to fire off the ball once in a while on those runs. Mike Iupati in particular had a bad game but Anthony Davis, Chilo Rachal, Jonathan Goodwin and Joe Staley all had afternoons to forget.
Defensively, the pass rush started off strong enough to fracture a couple of Tony Romo's ribs and forced him to throw off his back foot quite a bit in the first half. They also had the fortune of playing against Jon Kitna for most of the third quarter, and Kitna threw some horrific passes, leading to a pair of interceptions; one each by Donte Whitner and Tramaine Brock. As usual, they completely took away the running game, holding Dallas to 45 yards on 20 useless carries. At this point it's a wonder why anyone ever bothers calling a run against the 49ers. They're just doing them a favor.
Eventually Dallas tightened up their protection, spread the 49ers defense out and Romo checked back in and started clicking with his receivers -- mainly Miles Austin (who had three touchdowns) and Jason Witten, who were both playing hurt themselves. Romo repeatedly abused all the backups forced into prominent roles on the 49ers secondary, guys like Tarell Brown, Madieu Williams and Reggie Smith. However, it's not like this secondary played any well last year when they had Dashon Goldson and Shawntae Spencer, so expecting those two to be saviors might be wishful thinking.
Whitner is a useful player in that he's good at stopping the run and can do a decent job against most tight ends, but against the cream of the crop like Witten, he's not gonna come out on top. The best player in the secondary, and someone who looks to be a great free agent signing, is corner Carlos Rogers. The team actually had him in the slot against Witten quite a bit and he won some of those battles and lost some. He actually played quite well in the game and got his hand -- and his helmet -- on some balls, and had the deflection on Brock's interception. Unfortunately, Rogers' worst play came in overtime, when both he and Whitner bit on a play-action fake and froze, allowing Jesse Holley of all people to get behind them for the crushing 77-yard reception and the winning field goal.
It's crazy to think the 49ers were one play from winning this game on two separate occasions. Dallas had to convert a 4th-and-5 late in the game, which they did on a sideline pass to Witten. They also had to have Dan Bailey make a 48-yard field goal at the gun when he had missed a chip shot early in the game. Still, for the second half they completely dominated both lines of scrimmage and outgained the 49ers in the game 472 yards to 206. In many aspects both teams were lucky to even get to overtime, and the Cowboys took advantage of their luck while the 49ers did not.
For his part Smith played quite well, and I'm sure going into the game most fans would've gladly taken two touchdown passes, one interception, no fumbles and a 99.1 QB rating from him. He wasn't the problem. Smith had a Romo-like play in the second quarter when he completely missed the shotgun snap, caught the ball on the bounce while running backward to retrieve it, rolled to the right like Montana against Dallas 30-years ago, and found Gore in the end zone 40 yards downfield. It would've been a touchdown had Gore not been interfered with by a desperate Cowboys defender, and the 49ers scored on the next play from one-yard out all the same.
The next drive Smith had a series of third-down conversions and found Kyle Williams in the left corner on a beautiful 12-yard pass over Mike Jenkins' shoulder to make it 14-0. His one bad decision in the second half, trying to force a pass to Davis early in the third quarter, was intercepted and led to Austin's second touchdown which tied the game at 14, but Smith made his best pass shortly after, after Brock's intercepted Kitna. He found a mismatch with tight end Delanie Walker against Dallas' Anthony Spencer, nominally a pass-rusher and hit him in stride on a looping 29-yard score to make it 21-14. It was the only drive in the second half and overtime that didn't have one negative play, and that was probably because it lasted all of one play.
If Smith is to be criticized for anything, except not making better blocking audibles to counter Dallas' pass rush, it's that he didn't challenge Harbaugh for accepting that field goal. A better quarterback wouldn't have even look his coach's way and simply jogged out onto the field. Smith should've at least pushed for it, demanded it. That he doesn't have the personality to do so is why he never meshed with Singletary and why he can never be an elite player. It's just not in him to be the forceful, dominant personality you need at that position.
For now, that personality remains Harbaugh, for better or worse. He said he'd know more about his team after a game or two, and the same is true of his players knowing more about him. Right now he knows he's got some real problems at offensive line and the secondary and some health issues at receiver. His players know he coaches scared, playing not-to-lose instead of going for the throat, just like the last guy and the guy before him.
They'll have 14 games this season to learn more about each other, and for now, it appears, only 14.
Friday, September 16, 2011
49ers-Cowboys Preview, Week 2 Picks
If you need any affirmation of where our plucky San Francisco 49ers stand in the NFL's pecking order, consider the fact that last Sunday night, on the league-owned hour long highlight extravaganza, the visual evidence of their 33-17 triumph over the Seattle Seahawks consisted of a 15 second clip that picked up the action in the fourth quarter with the home side up 19-10. We got the 55-yard touchdown pass from Tarvaris Jackson to Doug Baldwin, where the former Stanford receiver wrong-footed nickel safety Reggie Smith, and then the ensuing 102-yard kick return by Ted Ginn which pushed the margin to nine once more.
Alex Smith's bootleg touchdown in the first half where he dove over two defenders? Not worthy. A montage of first half sacks the defensive line delivered to Jackson? Not relevant. Ginn's punt return touchdown to punctuate the game? Not necessary.
The next day, when asked how he celebrated his first NFL win as the head whistle, Jim Harbaugh, a fellow who gives off the strong impression that he wouldn't know how to celebrate anything if his life depended on it, remarked that he went home and watched TV.
"Just went home and watched the Cowboys game," he said. "Kind of flipped through the channels, the NFL network, and highlight express, and the ESPN blitz. Never caught one highlight of the 49ers on any of those, so I just watched the Cowboys game."
Did that strike you as peculiar, coach?
"No, we know it. It just kind of documents what you know. What the perception is of our team around the league and around the country. Some people can say that’s not fair, it isn’t right, but do something about it. And that’s our mindset. That’s our approach."
I suppose "Win one for the TV producer's attention" doesn't quite have the same ring to it as "Win one for the gipper," but athletes have been inspired by less.
For the record, the only game that got as such short shrift on the highlight shows as 49ers-Seahawks was Jaguars-Titans. What do these two have in common, kids? Divisional rivals in divisions the country doesn't care about, with stopgap quarterbacks squaring off. Should Alex Smith vs. Tarvaris Jackson have inspired that much interest than Luke McCown vs. Matt Hasselbeck? Until further notice, the answer is no.
However, team interest doesn't always align perfectly with records and expectations. The Lakers still got plenty of national games when they were reduced to Kobe Bryant and 11 guys named "Smush" and so did Michael Vick's Falcons teams even though he never figured out what a wide receiver was until he met Andy Reid at Philadelphia. People like who they like and the folks at ESPN decided long ago it's easier to conjure up "news" about those they deem interesting rather than waste precious resources reporting the news as it happens about any Tom, Dick or Harry. Besides, they have all those big money partnerships to protect, so why upset people by sifting through their dirty laundry?
So forget the TV stuff and let's get to the heart of what determines who's top dog in the NFL: The almighty point spread.
The 1-0 49ers, at the friendly confines of Candlestick Park, are field goal dogs to an 0-1 team that is almost identical on paper to the one that finished 6-10 last season. "Poppycock," you say. "That stat is biased. Tony Romo was hurt last season and the Cowboys are entirely different without him."
Well, who am I to argue that? In fact, not only was Dallas markedly different sans Romo, but they were better. They went 1-5 with their marque idol under center and 5-5 with Jon "Jon Kitna" Kitna, a backup so milquetoast that my nickname for him is his name. Romo certainly has the pretty numbers and the heart-thumping magnetism, with charisma that's practically off the scale, but for whatever reason he hasn't won much of late. Combine the opening weekend capitulation at the Jets and 2009's season-ending playoff massacre at the hands of Brett Favre and the Vikings and Romo is a sweet 1-7 in his last eight starts of note.
That's the guy, the one who throws ill-timed picks and fumbles when it's the least convenient time to do so, who's favored by a field goal over your Niners.
The hell of it is, no one is the least bit surprised. The point is not to put down the 49ers specifically, but rather that anybody in the NFC BEast would be favored against anybody from the West, at least if you listen to corner Carlos Rogers, who spent the first six seasons of his career at Washington.
"I was telling the guys, when I played the NFC East, that's the toughest (division)," said Rogers. "You look at the NFC West and you always looked at those guys as soft. You looked at those games as games you should win. I know that's (the Cowboys') mindset coming in here."
Indeed, you'd be hard-pressed to find anybody on the 49ers schedule who don't view them as a "W" with minimal effort, and like Harbaugh said, it's up to them to change that perception.
To do that, they'll have to join the 21st century and start flinging the rock. Their linemen know it, their receivers know it and even their quarterback, who makes a point of defending the "balanced" offensive philosophy at all times like a dutiful soldier, knows it.
"In the past game we were only throwing for a 124 yards," Smith said. "Obviously I’d like to build upon that. So we were efficient as far as completion percentage, but I’d really like to get a little more production."
Yes, you read that correctly. Alex Smith said he'd like to get little more production. He says it in a way like it's a favor he has to ask of his coaches, like a treat he's earned for cleaning his room and eating all his veggies. It doesn't exactly sound like a fellow who's gonna challenge Harbaugh the next time he hears a play-call for a draw to Frank Gore on 3rd-and-8.
That's been the Catch-22 with Smith throughout his career. He hasn't been given the same opportunities from a play-calling standpoint that other quarterbacks are regularly afforded, such as regularly getting to pass on 1st-and-10 or 3rd-and-2, and consequently the 49ers have never scored anywhere close to consistently enough with him under center to merit his coaches treating him the way they Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady gets treated. It's like a chicken and egg argument except the chicken is diseased and the egg is rotten.
New 49ers receiver Braylon Edwards insisted the other day that the team could win a shootout type of game, saying "I know we have what it takes to be in one of them. We have the offensive line, we have the receivers, the running back and the play-calling ability from the coaches."
Notice what critical ingredient he left out of the equation.
The team got away with having an extend preseason last week against Seattle, showing essentially nothing against the Seahawks and doing the bare minimum schematically on offense. If using a sixth offensive lineman is the creative zenith of your game plan, you either A) think absolutely nothing of your opponent B) think even less than that about your quarterback C) are scared to death your offensive line will get innocent spectators hurt, never mind the QB or D) all of the above.
Somewhere, deep inside his 14 layers of black sweaters, Harbaugh knew he wasn't being truthful by defending those runs up the gut by Gore as aggressive, attacking plays. I think he has a pretty good idea he'll have to pass the ball on Sunday and hope for the best, the same as he did with Tavita Pritchard at Stanford.
It'll be up to Smith to prove everyone wrong, and even if he does all the credit will go to his coach, or the blame to Romo, or it will be dismissed as a fluke. Reputations are hard to shake in this league and perception is everything, as a former 49ers quarterback of note is fond of saying.
What we do know is if Smith is ever gonna have a chance to get the home crowd on his side, Sunday's the day. The Cowboys will be without Terence Newman, whose groin is good enough to play on, but the team brass has decided the 49ers can be beaten without his services. They'll miss nickel corner Orlando Scandrick as well, while other starter Mike Jenkins will be limited by a wonky shoulder. Anthony Spencer, their second best pass rusher, also has a bad shoulder. In theory, as long as the 49ers double-team DeMarcus Ware on every play, they should tear these guys up. In theory, Smith was supposed to be a franchise savior as a number one pick. Things don't always work out as planned.
On the other side of the ball, the 49ers defense will get a second straight game against a young, inexperienced offensive line, and safety Donte Whitner will find that Jason Witten is a rich man's version of Zach Miller, with the difference between the two tight ends having more to do with their respective quarterbacks than anything else. I would figure Witten will see some bracket coverage, with Patrick Willis or NaVorro Bowman chipping in underneath. Rogers will draw a lot of one-on-one with Miles Austin, especially in the slot, and if Dez Bryant plays -- he's missed practice all week with a thigh contusion -- he's going to be impaired.
The Cowboys are in town, bruised and battered. They're expecting to win because they're them and the Niners are the Niners. Either way the highlight clip this time out will be a lot longer than 15 seconds and Michael Irvin and Deion Sanders will be doing plenty of chirping. We'll have to see if Harbaugh will be in the mood to watch it.
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Michael Crabtree looked more active in Thursday's individual drills on Thursday than he did on Wednesday, and was running short routes at 80 percent speed I'd say. He was still listed as "limited" in the official practice report, which is usually code for "did not participate in team drills."
Crabtree will be dying to play against his hometown Cowboys so he'll probably force the issue to at least be in the lineup at the beginning, but if he has any kind of setback in the game, I expect this time for the team to have second-year man Kyle Williams dressed and available. And really, with all the smoke everyone's blowing up Ted Ginn's rear end about how much he's improved as a receiver, you'd think they could play him a few snaps from scrimmage.
Dashon Goldson was mostly a spectator from what I saw and he too was listed as limited in the injury report. My guess is he'll be out for the second straight game and the team will once again depend on the combination of Madieu Williams and Reggie Smith. Hopefully Smith shook off some rust last week and will be more ready to contribute, but I have some bad vibes about him against Dallas' receiving corps. He's shown in the past to be susceptible to play-action and he's not the soundest tackler back there either.
Whether Goldson's absence is costly or not depends on if he'll be the 2009 Goldson when he returns or last year's version. If 2010 Dashon is the real one, then that guy can spend all year on the inactive list as far as I'm concerned. 2009 Goldson on the other hand, I'm quite fond of. The Cowboys have a guy like that too in Mike Jenkins. Great in '09, a disaster last year. Try figuring this game out.
Shawntae Spencer, meanwhile, has been a full participant in practice, but he's still behind both Tarell Brown and Tramaine Brock and doesn't figure to see the field from scrimmage. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio explained that Spencer, who missed practically all of training camp, is still not in football shape yet and can only be used in emergency situations. He may challenge for his old spot in the coming weeks.
****************************************************************************
Carlos Rogers offered an interesting scouting report on Tony Romo based on his six head-to-head encounters with him:
"He's a quarterback that if you give him time, let him sit back and don't put pressure on him, he can be a Hall-of-Fame quarterback. If you put pressure on him
and you give him different looks, you've got a chance. And that's one of the main things we always knew. You've got to show him different looks. We always knew his outlet, when he'd get in trouble, he's going to (tight end Jason) Witten. So from my experience that's what you've got to do against him. Show him different looks and mix up your coverages. Send pressure at him because he can sit back there and pick you apart."
What about his scrambling, does that worry you?
"You can't look at Romo and think 'OK, I'm going to give him three or four seconds and the ball should be out.' He can do that little pump fake, make guys jump, scramble and throw. He's not a big runner, but if he's got to, he will. He can extend plays."
Is his greatest asset, his improvisational skill, also his biggest weakness?
"Our thing we always said about him was that he would give us two chances. That was one thing that we always said every year. Romo will give you two chances. The games that we won, when he gave us those chances, we took advantage of them. Some games we didn't take advantage, and we didn't get to him in the backfield, he just picked us apart."
Have I mentioned that I love Carlos Rogers? He's definitely our early favorite for the Niver award.
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Other thoughts/picks for Week 2:
Cleveland at Indianapolis (+3): It all depends on who gets that 10 point lead. The Colts have a smallish front line that the Browns should be able to run on, but those two great edge rushers in Dwight Freeney and Rasheen Mathis to protect any leads they'd get. A shaky pick for the home team. Colts 20, Browns 13.
Kansas City at Detroit (-9): I'm more of a believer in Detroit than I was last week, but nine points is an awful lot. Jamaal Charles should be able to run in that dome enough to keep them in the game. Lions 27, Chiefs 23.
Oakland at Buffalo (-4): The Bills with Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams should be able to stop the Raiders running game cold and Silver & Black get no favors from Mr. Schedulemaker, having to fly all the way to Buffalo for an early 10 a.m. game after having had a late Monday night start the week before. Bills 27, Raiders 13. **FOUR POINT SPECIAL**
Baltimore at Tennessee (+7): Seven point underdogs at home seems like a lot of points to lay, but I can't think of a single argument against Baltimore except they'll be too full of themselves after trouncing Pittsburgh. Ravens 23, Titans 10. **TWO POINT SPECIAL**
Tampa Bay at Minnesota (-3): The biggest game of the morning slate. The loser is in a world of hurt against a deep NFC field with so many Wild Card candidates. I gotta go the team with the best player, which is Adrian Peterson, so I'm taking the Vikes at home with no confidence whatsoever. Vikings 24, Buccaneers 20.
Chicago at New Orleans (-7): Many members of the Bears team will travel with Brian Urlacher to his mother's funeral, which is highly unusual. It speaks to how deeply he's entrenched as the talisman of that organization, more so than anyone since Walter Payton. It also signals the strong bond he has with his teammates, who could hardly function in practice without his presence. Gotta go with the upset pick here against the team I picked to win the Super Bowl, based purely on emotion. I think the Bears will absolutely play their guts out for their middle linebacker, as sappy as that sounds. Bears 24, Saints 23.
Jacksonville at NY Jets (-9): Nine points? Really? What on Earth did the Jets show on Sunday nine to prove they can beat anyone by nine? Rex Ryan's guys will typically sleepwalk through the first half and the Jaguars will find a way to keep this annoyingly close. Jets 19, Jaguars 16.
Seattle at Pittsburgh (-15): Not to go all Simmons on you, but this is an absolutely ridiculous line. I was off by 8 points when I guessed what it would be in the morning. I know the Steelers defense will be angry, but they're not gonna get younger overnight. Besides, that referee is gonna give Seattle a couple of makeup calls methinks. Steelers 23, Seahawks 16.
Arizona at Washington (-4): It's not the venue that makes this a rough game for the Cardinals but rather that they get the 'Skins in the first half of the year, when they're always feisty, than in December, when they're in vacation mode. Redskins 27, Cardinals 17.
Green Bay at Carolina (+11): Cam Newton passed for 422 yards last week and is making his home debut. You think that would be enough for me to happily take the points. Like a fool, I'm gonna lay them, and I probably would if the line was 14. Packers 40, Panthers 13. **FIVE POINT SPECIAL**
Dallas at San Francisco (+3): No, I don't think Alex Smith will stink it up, but I'm not ready to declare the 49ers a top-10 defense yet either. Either way, I'm curious to see what Harbaugh and his coaches are all about, at last. Cowboys 27, 49ers 20.
Cincinnati at Denver (-4): Andy Dalton is the only compelling reason to watch this game. Everyone likes the Bengals in this one because they can kinda sorta run and pass while the Broncos can't run a lick. I don't know. It seems too easy. Denver 31, Cincinnati 20.
Houston at Miami (+3): Still don't think Arian Foster will be ready to play and these are the kind of games the Texans always blow. If Miami can't pull this out, I'm done with 'em for the year. Miami 23, Houston 20.
San Diego at New England (-7): What the heck, a second upset pick. The Pats are overdue to lose a home game in the regular season and call me crazy, I'll take the team with the better defense. Who on New England can cover Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson or Malcolm Floyd? San Diego 30, New England 27.
Philadelphia at Atlanta (+3): First off, I'll take Vick and the Eagles in virtually any game on turf, that's a given. But when you factor in the glaring difference between the two secondaries and the fact that it will be akin to a home game for Philly because of their quarterback, how can I not take them? Also, I have to say for the record, and this is coming from an Eagles guy, that I find the whole racial dynamic of this game, where a large segment of the crowd will be rooting against their own team, very disappointing and a bit creepy. It's 2011 and we should be beyond this stuff.
That Martin Luther King Jr. message about judging a man not by the color of his skin but the content of his character cuts both ways. Vick was a good player for the Falcons, but a highly overrated one. What did he ever win for them? Shouldn't their fans revile him, if not for his crimes, than at least for being dumb enough to piss away his career there instead of worshiping him? Vick even admitted he wasn't a professional as a Falcon and didn't work nearly hard enough, yet he's still loved down there. I just don't get it. Eagles 37, Falcons 24. **THREE POINT SPECIAL**
St. Louis at NY Giants (-6): You get the feeling this game will either be a real dog or wildly entertaining, with nothing in between. The Rams are beat up on offense, while the Giants defense is decimated. If the Rams drop it, they can be staring a 1-6 start in the face. A third upset pick here, because Steve Spagnuolo knows the Giants personnel better than the other way around. Rams 20, Giants 17.
Week 1 Record: 11-5
Vs. Spread: 8-7-1
+/- Points (All games count as one unless otherwise specified): -5
Alex Smith's bootleg touchdown in the first half where he dove over two defenders? Not worthy. A montage of first half sacks the defensive line delivered to Jackson? Not relevant. Ginn's punt return touchdown to punctuate the game? Not necessary.
The next day, when asked how he celebrated his first NFL win as the head whistle, Jim Harbaugh, a fellow who gives off the strong impression that he wouldn't know how to celebrate anything if his life depended on it, remarked that he went home and watched TV.
"Just went home and watched the Cowboys game," he said. "Kind of flipped through the channels, the NFL network, and highlight express, and the ESPN blitz. Never caught one highlight of the 49ers on any of those, so I just watched the Cowboys game."
Did that strike you as peculiar, coach?
"No, we know it. It just kind of documents what you know. What the perception is of our team around the league and around the country. Some people can say that’s not fair, it isn’t right, but do something about it. And that’s our mindset. That’s our approach."
I suppose "Win one for the TV producer's attention" doesn't quite have the same ring to it as "Win one for the gipper," but athletes have been inspired by less.
For the record, the only game that got as such short shrift on the highlight shows as 49ers-Seahawks was Jaguars-Titans. What do these two have in common, kids? Divisional rivals in divisions the country doesn't care about, with stopgap quarterbacks squaring off. Should Alex Smith vs. Tarvaris Jackson have inspired that much interest than Luke McCown vs. Matt Hasselbeck? Until further notice, the answer is no.
However, team interest doesn't always align perfectly with records and expectations. The Lakers still got plenty of national games when they were reduced to Kobe Bryant and 11 guys named "Smush" and so did Michael Vick's Falcons teams even though he never figured out what a wide receiver was until he met Andy Reid at Philadelphia. People like who they like and the folks at ESPN decided long ago it's easier to conjure up "news" about those they deem interesting rather than waste precious resources reporting the news as it happens about any Tom, Dick or Harry. Besides, they have all those big money partnerships to protect, so why upset people by sifting through their dirty laundry?
So forget the TV stuff and let's get to the heart of what determines who's top dog in the NFL: The almighty point spread.
The 1-0 49ers, at the friendly confines of Candlestick Park, are field goal dogs to an 0-1 team that is almost identical on paper to the one that finished 6-10 last season. "Poppycock," you say. "That stat is biased. Tony Romo was hurt last season and the Cowboys are entirely different without him."
Well, who am I to argue that? In fact, not only was Dallas markedly different sans Romo, but they were better. They went 1-5 with their marque idol under center and 5-5 with Jon "Jon Kitna" Kitna, a backup so milquetoast that my nickname for him is his name. Romo certainly has the pretty numbers and the heart-thumping magnetism, with charisma that's practically off the scale, but for whatever reason he hasn't won much of late. Combine the opening weekend capitulation at the Jets and 2009's season-ending playoff massacre at the hands of Brett Favre and the Vikings and Romo is a sweet 1-7 in his last eight starts of note.
That's the guy, the one who throws ill-timed picks and fumbles when it's the least convenient time to do so, who's favored by a field goal over your Niners.
The hell of it is, no one is the least bit surprised. The point is not to put down the 49ers specifically, but rather that anybody in the NFC BEast would be favored against anybody from the West, at least if you listen to corner Carlos Rogers, who spent the first six seasons of his career at Washington.
"I was telling the guys, when I played the NFC East, that's the toughest (division)," said Rogers. "You look at the NFC West and you always looked at those guys as soft. You looked at those games as games you should win. I know that's (the Cowboys') mindset coming in here."
Indeed, you'd be hard-pressed to find anybody on the 49ers schedule who don't view them as a "W" with minimal effort, and like Harbaugh said, it's up to them to change that perception.
To do that, they'll have to join the 21st century and start flinging the rock. Their linemen know it, their receivers know it and even their quarterback, who makes a point of defending the "balanced" offensive philosophy at all times like a dutiful soldier, knows it.
"In the past game we were only throwing for a 124 yards," Smith said. "Obviously I’d like to build upon that. So we were efficient as far as completion percentage, but I’d really like to get a little more production."
Yes, you read that correctly. Alex Smith said he'd like to get little more production. He says it in a way like it's a favor he has to ask of his coaches, like a treat he's earned for cleaning his room and eating all his veggies. It doesn't exactly sound like a fellow who's gonna challenge Harbaugh the next time he hears a play-call for a draw to Frank Gore on 3rd-and-8.
That's been the Catch-22 with Smith throughout his career. He hasn't been given the same opportunities from a play-calling standpoint that other quarterbacks are regularly afforded, such as regularly getting to pass on 1st-and-10 or 3rd-and-2, and consequently the 49ers have never scored anywhere close to consistently enough with him under center to merit his coaches treating him the way they Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady gets treated. It's like a chicken and egg argument except the chicken is diseased and the egg is rotten.
New 49ers receiver Braylon Edwards insisted the other day that the team could win a shootout type of game, saying "I know we have what it takes to be in one of them. We have the offensive line, we have the receivers, the running back and the play-calling ability from the coaches."
Notice what critical ingredient he left out of the equation.
The team got away with having an extend preseason last week against Seattle, showing essentially nothing against the Seahawks and doing the bare minimum schematically on offense. If using a sixth offensive lineman is the creative zenith of your game plan, you either A) think absolutely nothing of your opponent B) think even less than that about your quarterback C) are scared to death your offensive line will get innocent spectators hurt, never mind the QB or D) all of the above.
Somewhere, deep inside his 14 layers of black sweaters, Harbaugh knew he wasn't being truthful by defending those runs up the gut by Gore as aggressive, attacking plays. I think he has a pretty good idea he'll have to pass the ball on Sunday and hope for the best, the same as he did with Tavita Pritchard at Stanford.
It'll be up to Smith to prove everyone wrong, and even if he does all the credit will go to his coach, or the blame to Romo, or it will be dismissed as a fluke. Reputations are hard to shake in this league and perception is everything, as a former 49ers quarterback of note is fond of saying.
What we do know is if Smith is ever gonna have a chance to get the home crowd on his side, Sunday's the day. The Cowboys will be without Terence Newman, whose groin is good enough to play on, but the team brass has decided the 49ers can be beaten without his services. They'll miss nickel corner Orlando Scandrick as well, while other starter Mike Jenkins will be limited by a wonky shoulder. Anthony Spencer, their second best pass rusher, also has a bad shoulder. In theory, as long as the 49ers double-team DeMarcus Ware on every play, they should tear these guys up. In theory, Smith was supposed to be a franchise savior as a number one pick. Things don't always work out as planned.
On the other side of the ball, the 49ers defense will get a second straight game against a young, inexperienced offensive line, and safety Donte Whitner will find that Jason Witten is a rich man's version of Zach Miller, with the difference between the two tight ends having more to do with their respective quarterbacks than anything else. I would figure Witten will see some bracket coverage, with Patrick Willis or NaVorro Bowman chipping in underneath. Rogers will draw a lot of one-on-one with Miles Austin, especially in the slot, and if Dez Bryant plays -- he's missed practice all week with a thigh contusion -- he's going to be impaired.
The Cowboys are in town, bruised and battered. They're expecting to win because they're them and the Niners are the Niners. Either way the highlight clip this time out will be a lot longer than 15 seconds and Michael Irvin and Deion Sanders will be doing plenty of chirping. We'll have to see if Harbaugh will be in the mood to watch it.
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Michael Crabtree looked more active in Thursday's individual drills on Thursday than he did on Wednesday, and was running short routes at 80 percent speed I'd say. He was still listed as "limited" in the official practice report, which is usually code for "did not participate in team drills."
Crabtree will be dying to play against his hometown Cowboys so he'll probably force the issue to at least be in the lineup at the beginning, but if he has any kind of setback in the game, I expect this time for the team to have second-year man Kyle Williams dressed and available. And really, with all the smoke everyone's blowing up Ted Ginn's rear end about how much he's improved as a receiver, you'd think they could play him a few snaps from scrimmage.
Dashon Goldson was mostly a spectator from what I saw and he too was listed as limited in the injury report. My guess is he'll be out for the second straight game and the team will once again depend on the combination of Madieu Williams and Reggie Smith. Hopefully Smith shook off some rust last week and will be more ready to contribute, but I have some bad vibes about him against Dallas' receiving corps. He's shown in the past to be susceptible to play-action and he's not the soundest tackler back there either.
Whether Goldson's absence is costly or not depends on if he'll be the 2009 Goldson when he returns or last year's version. If 2010 Dashon is the real one, then that guy can spend all year on the inactive list as far as I'm concerned. 2009 Goldson on the other hand, I'm quite fond of. The Cowboys have a guy like that too in Mike Jenkins. Great in '09, a disaster last year. Try figuring this game out.
Shawntae Spencer, meanwhile, has been a full participant in practice, but he's still behind both Tarell Brown and Tramaine Brock and doesn't figure to see the field from scrimmage. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio explained that Spencer, who missed practically all of training camp, is still not in football shape yet and can only be used in emergency situations. He may challenge for his old spot in the coming weeks.
****************************************************************************
Carlos Rogers offered an interesting scouting report on Tony Romo based on his six head-to-head encounters with him:
"He's a quarterback that if you give him time, let him sit back and don't put pressure on him, he can be a Hall-of-Fame quarterback. If you put pressure on him
and you give him different looks, you've got a chance. And that's one of the main things we always knew. You've got to show him different looks. We always knew his outlet, when he'd get in trouble, he's going to (tight end Jason) Witten. So from my experience that's what you've got to do against him. Show him different looks and mix up your coverages. Send pressure at him because he can sit back there and pick you apart."
What about his scrambling, does that worry you?
"You can't look at Romo and think 'OK, I'm going to give him three or four seconds and the ball should be out.' He can do that little pump fake, make guys jump, scramble and throw. He's not a big runner, but if he's got to, he will. He can extend plays."
Is his greatest asset, his improvisational skill, also his biggest weakness?
"Our thing we always said about him was that he would give us two chances. That was one thing that we always said every year. Romo will give you two chances. The games that we won, when he gave us those chances, we took advantage of them. Some games we didn't take advantage, and we didn't get to him in the backfield, he just picked us apart."
Have I mentioned that I love Carlos Rogers? He's definitely our early favorite for the Niver award.
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Other thoughts/picks for Week 2:
Cleveland at Indianapolis (+3): It all depends on who gets that 10 point lead. The Colts have a smallish front line that the Browns should be able to run on, but those two great edge rushers in Dwight Freeney and Rasheen Mathis to protect any leads they'd get. A shaky pick for the home team. Colts 20, Browns 13.
Kansas City at Detroit (-9): I'm more of a believer in Detroit than I was last week, but nine points is an awful lot. Jamaal Charles should be able to run in that dome enough to keep them in the game. Lions 27, Chiefs 23.
Oakland at Buffalo (-4): The Bills with Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams should be able to stop the Raiders running game cold and Silver & Black get no favors from Mr. Schedulemaker, having to fly all the way to Buffalo for an early 10 a.m. game after having had a late Monday night start the week before. Bills 27, Raiders 13. **FOUR POINT SPECIAL**
Baltimore at Tennessee (+7): Seven point underdogs at home seems like a lot of points to lay, but I can't think of a single argument against Baltimore except they'll be too full of themselves after trouncing Pittsburgh. Ravens 23, Titans 10. **TWO POINT SPECIAL**
Tampa Bay at Minnesota (-3): The biggest game of the morning slate. The loser is in a world of hurt against a deep NFC field with so many Wild Card candidates. I gotta go the team with the best player, which is Adrian Peterson, so I'm taking the Vikes at home with no confidence whatsoever. Vikings 24, Buccaneers 20.
Chicago at New Orleans (-7): Many members of the Bears team will travel with Brian Urlacher to his mother's funeral, which is highly unusual. It speaks to how deeply he's entrenched as the talisman of that organization, more so than anyone since Walter Payton. It also signals the strong bond he has with his teammates, who could hardly function in practice without his presence. Gotta go with the upset pick here against the team I picked to win the Super Bowl, based purely on emotion. I think the Bears will absolutely play their guts out for their middle linebacker, as sappy as that sounds. Bears 24, Saints 23.
Jacksonville at NY Jets (-9): Nine points? Really? What on Earth did the Jets show on Sunday nine to prove they can beat anyone by nine? Rex Ryan's guys will typically sleepwalk through the first half and the Jaguars will find a way to keep this annoyingly close. Jets 19, Jaguars 16.
Seattle at Pittsburgh (-15): Not to go all Simmons on you, but this is an absolutely ridiculous line. I was off by 8 points when I guessed what it would be in the morning. I know the Steelers defense will be angry, but they're not gonna get younger overnight. Besides, that referee is gonna give Seattle a couple of makeup calls methinks. Steelers 23, Seahawks 16.
Arizona at Washington (-4): It's not the venue that makes this a rough game for the Cardinals but rather that they get the 'Skins in the first half of the year, when they're always feisty, than in December, when they're in vacation mode. Redskins 27, Cardinals 17.
Green Bay at Carolina (+11): Cam Newton passed for 422 yards last week and is making his home debut. You think that would be enough for me to happily take the points. Like a fool, I'm gonna lay them, and I probably would if the line was 14. Packers 40, Panthers 13. **FIVE POINT SPECIAL**
Dallas at San Francisco (+3): No, I don't think Alex Smith will stink it up, but I'm not ready to declare the 49ers a top-10 defense yet either. Either way, I'm curious to see what Harbaugh and his coaches are all about, at last. Cowboys 27, 49ers 20.
Cincinnati at Denver (-4): Andy Dalton is the only compelling reason to watch this game. Everyone likes the Bengals in this one because they can kinda sorta run and pass while the Broncos can't run a lick. I don't know. It seems too easy. Denver 31, Cincinnati 20.
Houston at Miami (+3): Still don't think Arian Foster will be ready to play and these are the kind of games the Texans always blow. If Miami can't pull this out, I'm done with 'em for the year. Miami 23, Houston 20.
San Diego at New England (-7): What the heck, a second upset pick. The Pats are overdue to lose a home game in the regular season and call me crazy, I'll take the team with the better defense. Who on New England can cover Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson or Malcolm Floyd? San Diego 30, New England 27.
Philadelphia at Atlanta (+3): First off, I'll take Vick and the Eagles in virtually any game on turf, that's a given. But when you factor in the glaring difference between the two secondaries and the fact that it will be akin to a home game for Philly because of their quarterback, how can I not take them? Also, I have to say for the record, and this is coming from an Eagles guy, that I find the whole racial dynamic of this game, where a large segment of the crowd will be rooting against their own team, very disappointing and a bit creepy. It's 2011 and we should be beyond this stuff.
That Martin Luther King Jr. message about judging a man not by the color of his skin but the content of his character cuts both ways. Vick was a good player for the Falcons, but a highly overrated one. What did he ever win for them? Shouldn't their fans revile him, if not for his crimes, than at least for being dumb enough to piss away his career there instead of worshiping him? Vick even admitted he wasn't a professional as a Falcon and didn't work nearly hard enough, yet he's still loved down there. I just don't get it. Eagles 37, Falcons 24. **THREE POINT SPECIAL**
St. Louis at NY Giants (-6): You get the feeling this game will either be a real dog or wildly entertaining, with nothing in between. The Rams are beat up on offense, while the Giants defense is decimated. If the Rams drop it, they can be staring a 1-6 start in the face. A third upset pick here, because Steve Spagnuolo knows the Giants personnel better than the other way around. Rams 20, Giants 17.
Week 1 Record: 11-5
Vs. Spread: 8-7-1
+/- Points (All games count as one unless otherwise specified): -5
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
49ers notes: Crabtree sits, Peelle signs, Jones resurfaces on the practice squad and Edwards sues
Obviously we weren't allowed to watch practice, but during warmups several eagle-eyed reporters saw Michael Crabtree run one three-quarters speed route in warmups and then quickly take off his helmet and chat up trainer Jeff Ferguson. That can't be an encouraging sign. Crabtree only made it through one half on Sunday and said afterward that he thought he'd re-broken his foot. He wasn't walking with a limp when he was spotted earlier in the day, but walking and running are two different things. Expect this to be an ongoing issue for a while longer.
Coach Jim Harbaugh said there's a possibility that Kyle Williams will be up for this game, as insurance for Crabtree in case he can't make it all the way through if nothing else. I'm guessing Crabtree really wants to play in the game because it's A) the regular season and B) against his hometown Cowboys, but if he's limited at all, the team may be better off just going with Williams, who had a fabulous camp and is raring to go. At this point, how could he be a drop off at all from a hobbled Crabtree who's barely practiced at all in this offense?
Safety Dashon Goldson was in uniform and pads during practice, but not really participating in individual drills. It remains to be seen how active he'll be, but it's dangerous to play the Cowboys with a gimpy safety. Reggie Smith's first game back there as the nickel guy couldn't have been too encouraging either, so it's not an ideal situation.
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Peelle in, Jones out, Practice Squad RB Shuffle
The 49ers signed tight end Justin Peelle, 32, a 6-4, 255 pound blocking specialist who’s a veteran of nine seasons with the San Diego Chargers, Miami Dolphins and Atlanta Falcons. The 49ers played with just two tight ends on the roster the first week in Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker, so they had to use a sixth offensive lineman in a lot of short-yardage situations that wound up being unsuccessful. Maybe with Peelle defenses will respect the run-pass option more and give Frank Gore a couple more inches of room to run. Or perhaps the coaching staff will be more willing to use the play-action in those formations and actually throw the ball. Peelle has 122 career receptions for 984 yards and 12 touchdowns and caught 10 balls for 96 yards and as score last year for Atlanta.
"Hopefully I'll get fed every once in a while, but normally my role has been to block the past couple years," said Peelle.
To make room for Peelle on the 53-man roster, the team waived rookie safety Colin Jones, their 6th round pick from TCU. As expected, he cleared waivers and is now on the practice squad.
The team also signed running back Ian Johnson, 25, to their practice squad. Johnson, who is 5-11 and 212 pounds, was signed as an undrafted free agent out of Boise State in 2009 by Minnesota and has spent time with the Arizona Cardinals, Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers organizations too, but has never been activated for the regular season. He had 36 carries for 130 yards this preseason for the Lions. Johnson is famous, of course, for proposing to a cheerleader (who was his longtime girlfriend) on national television immediately after scoring the game-winning two-point conversion in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl. He helped Boise State upset mighty Oklahoma by successfully running in a “Statue of Liberty” play. With the arrival of Johnson, running back Xavier Omon was released from the practice squad -- and quickly signed to Cleveland's.
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Vernon Davis spoke of the looking forward to the challenge of going against Dallas' elite pass-rusher DeMarcus Ware, but Joe Staley had already thrown cold water on the notion earlier during his interview. Staley explained that Ware usually lines up on the opposite side from the tight end. In the frequent instances where the 49ers will go with two tight ends, you figure Ware will choose to go against Delanie Walker, who's a far worse blocker than Davis. Also, it's a good bet that Ware, who's never been much of a coverage guy to begin with, will want no part of Davis in that regard. The Cowboys will probably use a nickel corner or a safety on him, and perhaps some bracket coverage with an inside 'backer.
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Braylon Edwards filed a $14 million dollar lawsuit against a Michigan restaurant and three of its employees for slander, alleging that a team rescinded on a contract offer they put on the table with $15 million in guarantees because of the accusation the employees made of his direct involvement in an Aug. 1 incident between his entourage and some busboys. Edwards was already cleared of any wrongdoing after a police investigation. In the suit, Edwards claims that he had to settle for just a $1 million guaranteed contract with the 49ers because of these false accusations.
I wonder if he'll sue Alex Smith, Jim Harbaugh, Greg Roman and the offensive line for hurting his 2012 earning potential...
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A look at the 49ers statistical rankings after Week 1.
49ers Offensive Rankings:
Rushing: 85.0 YPG (18th); Passing: 124.0 YPG (29th); Total: 209.0 YPG (31st); Points: 33.0 (7th).
Comment: One of these things is not like the other. Thanks, Ted Ginn!
49ers Defensive Rankings:
Rushing: 64.0 YPG (T-5th); Passing 155.0 YPG (T-5th); Total: 219.0 YPG (4th); Points: 17.0 (T-9th).
Comment: Patrick Willis always talks about wanting to be a top-10 defense, a top-5 defense. For once, 49ers come out and play like one. The Cowboys game will give them a much stiffer test, however.
49ers Special Teams Rankings:
Kickoff Return: 44.0 Avg (4th); Kickoff Return Allowed: 22.8 Avg (18th); Punt Return: 18.4 Avg (5th); Punt Return Allowed: 9.0 Avg (18th); Field Goal Percentage: 100.0 (T-1st); Net Punt Average: 54.2 Yards (1st).
It's tempting to say that new special teams coordinator Brad Seely has made difference right away, but he made his mark in the past for his kick coverage units, not the return game. I think Ginn just had a really good day and took advantage of a couple of mistakes from Seattle's Earl Thomas and Walter Thurmond, who were too overaggressive. Seely certainly has fabulous kickers to work with in Andy Lee and David Akers, so that part of the equation is easy to figure.
Giveaway/Takeaway:
Giveaways: 0 (T-1st); Takeaways: 3 (T-2nd); Plus/Minus: 3 (2nd).
Comment: Turnovers aren't always as relevant as people make them out to be. The 49ers got one on a Hail Mary at the end of the half and another on a fumble when the score was already 33-17 and there was a minute left on the clock. The most important number in this case was they didn't commit any.
Coach Jim Harbaugh said there's a possibility that Kyle Williams will be up for this game, as insurance for Crabtree in case he can't make it all the way through if nothing else. I'm guessing Crabtree really wants to play in the game because it's A) the regular season and B) against his hometown Cowboys, but if he's limited at all, the team may be better off just going with Williams, who had a fabulous camp and is raring to go. At this point, how could he be a drop off at all from a hobbled Crabtree who's barely practiced at all in this offense?
Safety Dashon Goldson was in uniform and pads during practice, but not really participating in individual drills. It remains to be seen how active he'll be, but it's dangerous to play the Cowboys with a gimpy safety. Reggie Smith's first game back there as the nickel guy couldn't have been too encouraging either, so it's not an ideal situation.
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Peelle in, Jones out, Practice Squad RB Shuffle
The 49ers signed tight end Justin Peelle, 32, a 6-4, 255 pound blocking specialist who’s a veteran of nine seasons with the San Diego Chargers, Miami Dolphins and Atlanta Falcons. The 49ers played with just two tight ends on the roster the first week in Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker, so they had to use a sixth offensive lineman in a lot of short-yardage situations that wound up being unsuccessful. Maybe with Peelle defenses will respect the run-pass option more and give Frank Gore a couple more inches of room to run. Or perhaps the coaching staff will be more willing to use the play-action in those formations and actually throw the ball. Peelle has 122 career receptions for 984 yards and 12 touchdowns and caught 10 balls for 96 yards and as score last year for Atlanta.
"Hopefully I'll get fed every once in a while, but normally my role has been to block the past couple years," said Peelle.
To make room for Peelle on the 53-man roster, the team waived rookie safety Colin Jones, their 6th round pick from TCU. As expected, he cleared waivers and is now on the practice squad.
The team also signed running back Ian Johnson, 25, to their practice squad. Johnson, who is 5-11 and 212 pounds, was signed as an undrafted free agent out of Boise State in 2009 by Minnesota and has spent time with the Arizona Cardinals, Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers organizations too, but has never been activated for the regular season. He had 36 carries for 130 yards this preseason for the Lions. Johnson is famous, of course, for proposing to a cheerleader (who was his longtime girlfriend) on national television immediately after scoring the game-winning two-point conversion in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl. He helped Boise State upset mighty Oklahoma by successfully running in a “Statue of Liberty” play. With the arrival of Johnson, running back Xavier Omon was released from the practice squad -- and quickly signed to Cleveland's.
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Vernon Davis spoke of the looking forward to the challenge of going against Dallas' elite pass-rusher DeMarcus Ware, but Joe Staley had already thrown cold water on the notion earlier during his interview. Staley explained that Ware usually lines up on the opposite side from the tight end. In the frequent instances where the 49ers will go with two tight ends, you figure Ware will choose to go against Delanie Walker, who's a far worse blocker than Davis. Also, it's a good bet that Ware, who's never been much of a coverage guy to begin with, will want no part of Davis in that regard. The Cowboys will probably use a nickel corner or a safety on him, and perhaps some bracket coverage with an inside 'backer.
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Braylon Edwards filed a $14 million dollar lawsuit against a Michigan restaurant and three of its employees for slander, alleging that a team rescinded on a contract offer they put on the table with $15 million in guarantees because of the accusation the employees made of his direct involvement in an Aug. 1 incident between his entourage and some busboys. Edwards was already cleared of any wrongdoing after a police investigation. In the suit, Edwards claims that he had to settle for just a $1 million guaranteed contract with the 49ers because of these false accusations.
I wonder if he'll sue Alex Smith, Jim Harbaugh, Greg Roman and the offensive line for hurting his 2012 earning potential...
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A look at the 49ers statistical rankings after Week 1.
49ers Offensive Rankings:
Rushing: 85.0 YPG (18th); Passing: 124.0 YPG (29th); Total: 209.0 YPG (31st); Points: 33.0 (7th).
Comment: One of these things is not like the other. Thanks, Ted Ginn!
49ers Defensive Rankings:
Rushing: 64.0 YPG (T-5th); Passing 155.0 YPG (T-5th); Total: 219.0 YPG (4th); Points: 17.0 (T-9th).
Comment: Patrick Willis always talks about wanting to be a top-10 defense, a top-5 defense. For once, 49ers come out and play like one. The Cowboys game will give them a much stiffer test, however.
49ers Special Teams Rankings:
Kickoff Return: 44.0 Avg (4th); Kickoff Return Allowed: 22.8 Avg (18th); Punt Return: 18.4 Avg (5th); Punt Return Allowed: 9.0 Avg (18th); Field Goal Percentage: 100.0 (T-1st); Net Punt Average: 54.2 Yards (1st).
It's tempting to say that new special teams coordinator Brad Seely has made difference right away, but he made his mark in the past for his kick coverage units, not the return game. I think Ginn just had a really good day and took advantage of a couple of mistakes from Seattle's Earl Thomas and Walter Thurmond, who were too overaggressive. Seely certainly has fabulous kickers to work with in Andy Lee and David Akers, so that part of the equation is easy to figure.
Giveaway/Takeaway:
Giveaways: 0 (T-1st); Takeaways: 3 (T-2nd); Plus/Minus: 3 (2nd).
Comment: Turnovers aren't always as relevant as people make them out to be. The 49ers got one on a Hail Mary at the end of the half and another on a fumble when the score was already 33-17 and there was a minute left on the clock. The most important number in this case was they didn't commit any.
Seahawks-49ers Thoughts, Week 1 NFL recap, Power Poll
How you view the 49ers game against Seattle depends purely on whether you're a glass half full or glass half empty person.
On one hand you can say that the bare bones conservative game plans on both sides of the ball was sound strategy. Why bust out the fine China when you're serving preseason leftovers? They didn't need to do anything fancy to beat the lowly Seahawks, so they saved it for when they will need to out-scheme somebody to win.
On the other hand, you can only hear the "oh, we'll show it later" line only so many times. Until they prove otherwise, the nagging suspicion is that this is what the 49ers are. If they're gonna get more exotic on one side of the ball, I'm guessing it will be the defense that sticks their toes in that pool first.
They have a slim chance of beating what will be a grouchy Cowboys team next Sunday as it is if they go all out, but if they try replicate this approach against Dallas it's going to get real ugly, real quick.
What I liked:
1. I thought the front seven was outstanding against Seattle (albeit against an offensive line starting three guys making their NFL debuts and with just 27 games of experience total), especially the defensive line. I've knocked the 49ers plenty for signing Ray McDonald to a five-year, $20 million contract after he showed nothing for four seasons, but McDonald certainly looked like a player on Sunday. Not only did he get plenty of push in the pocket, but he was tied for the team lead with six tackles. His perceived inability to play the run was the reason he was on the bench in favor of Isaac Sopoaga, but McDonald had no such problems against the Seahawks. Justin Smith was a beast as usual and had two sacks.
What I really liked was the rotation system the coaches used. Ricky Jean Francois and Will Tukuafu both got regular reps and contributed. I was a bit surprised Demarcus Dobbs was inactive, but all the reserves have to be able to contribute on special teams and Tukuafu has more experience there.
Overall the front seven sacked Tarvaris Jackson five times without blitzing much, forced and recovered two fumbles (both on sacks from Parys Haralson), held Seattle to just 64 rushing yards and 2.9 yards per carry, showing no ill effects from the loss of Aubrayo Franklin and Takeo Spikes to free agency. Ahmad Brooks was quiet on the stat sheet but he set the edge well in the run game and just about all of Seattle's gains in the running game came on Haralson's side. NaVarro Bowman was very active and had a great first half. Patrick Willis didn't dominate, but he laid a couple of shots on Jackson and Justin Forsett to force a pair of incomplete passes.
2. Jim Harbaugh got Alex Smith to using one of his best assets -- his legs. People forget that this guy had great rushing numbers at Utah and showed flashes of scrambling ability in 2006 and very early in 2007 before he suffered that separated shoulder. Smith's a little older now, and no one will confuse him for Michael Vick, but once he escapes the pocket he's fast enough to not be chased down from behind by the trailing linemen and linebackers. Instead of being a sitting duck in the pocket when protection breaks down, Smith took off against Seattle and gained whatever he could get. Sure, it's dangerous for a quarterback to dive into two people at the end zone or to be used as a lead blocker on toss plays, but Smith suffered his career-changing injury in the pocket and quarterbacks get hurt a lot more back there than when they're ball carriers. Besides, as Smith showed multiple times on Sunday, he's plenty athletic enough to slide correctly. He looks smooth doing it.
3. No foolishness. It didn't look pretty, but at least the 49ers didn't embarrass themselves out there the way they had in past seasons. There were no issues getting the plays in on time. No emotional outbursts or yelling matches on the sidelines. No obvious strategical gaffes. Nothing Seattle did that the 49ers weren't ready for. Numerous 49ers said after the game that what they appreciated the most about Harbaugh, even more than his football acumen, was that he's the exact same guy Monday-Saturday that he is on Sunday. He makes his points when he's upset, but he's not a screamer. He can offer constructive coaching tips instead of just mindless yelling and hollering.
Most of all, and Harbaugh has shown this all training camp and preseason, is he's not going to hang out anyone out to dry. No matter how bad one unit of the team or an individual plays, Harbaugh won't admit it publicly. He'll say a guy is playing swell and the coaches love him and then quietly bench him a week later with no notice to us. It won't make him popular with the media, but his locker room will appreciate it.
4. No dependance on Crabtree. Not by the coaching staff or by Alex Smith. The former played him about 2/3 of the snaps in the first half, but a lot of those were running plays. They saw he was limping around and not running well and they benched him in the second half.
As for Smith, it was obviously a mistake on his part to miss a wide-open Crabtree in the end zone in the 2nd quarter, but I liked that he only looked Crabtree's way twice in the game. Last year in the season opener he threw to Crabtree plenty even though the receiver had missed the whole preseason with a neck injury and it was clear he wasn't ready to play. He didn't know all his routes and a couple balls clanked off his hands. Now, Smith is secure enough to make Crab prove to him that he knows what he's doing. Smith has other options in Vernon Davis, in Braylon Edwards and Joshua Morgan. Crabtree has to earn his quarterback's trust.
5. The special teams, obviously. David Akers was 4-for-4 on field goals, Andy Lee had a record-setting day in punting average for a guy with a minimum of four in a game and Ted Ginn had two scores and set a 49ers record for return yardage with 268. What's not to like? Seattle's averages of 22.8 yards on kickoff returns and 9 yards on punt returns weren't bad, but their longest return was 28 yards, which is perfectly fine.
On Ginn's kickoff return touchdown, the Niners had a left return set up and Seattle's two guys on the right, corner Walter Thurmond and safety Earl Thomas, cheated toward the middle and lost backside containment. Ginn saw it and cut back to the right quickly and Colin Jones sealed his guy inside. Thurmond was sucked in too far and Thomas lost the footrace. On the punt return, Tramaine Brock had the initial block to take care of the first man and then Shawntae Spencer got in the way of the last guy at the middle of the field. No one else had a chance.
What I didn't like:
1. Too many dinky college plays. By that I mean the misdirection tosses to Frank Gore with Smith lead blocking, the backside screen to Davis and the bubble screen to Joshua Morgan. All these passes at the line of scrimmage might work against Washington State, but NFL defenders are too fast. Even if they work once, they'll never work again the rest of the year because people will scout it. For a supposed west coast team I sure didn't see many slants or crossing routes out there. It was a lot of short hitches. There was one nice route combination with Crabtree running a post to clear the deep crossing route for Davis, but otherwise it was a bunch of plays designed to get five yards and get tackled immediately.
2. Not trusting Smith on 3rd down. It's silly to expect Frank Gore to gain enough yardage on a draw on 3rd-and-long. The 49ers aren't the Packers or Eagles. Defenses don't respect their QB or the speed of their receivers to totally sell out against the pass. As long as Gore is out there, he will always be the primary focus of the defense, regardless of down and distance. If any team can get away with a play-action on 3rd-and-long, it should be the 49ers. Instead they're running draws. Hopefully it was all a set-up for Week 2.
3. Where was Kendall Hunter? Just two carries for the rookie. Removing him from kickoff return duty is one thing, but giving Gore 22 carries to two for Hunter is just silly. It's a long season and you just gave Gore an extension with some decent guaranteed money, why wear him down by relentlessly hammering him into nine-man lines? How about Anthony Dixon for some of those short-yardage carries. Why is he on the roster if you won't use him there? Why is he even dressed?
4. Too much Moran Norris. 32 snaps in fact. He was god awful, missing blocks left and right. Bruce Miller didn't play one snap on offense. I don't remember how many times the 49ers played a power formation with six linemen, Davis, one receiver and two backs. But it almost never worked. Seattle always had more guys at the line than the 49ers could block. Seriously, knock that stuff off. Look at the Singletary tapes from the last two years. It's not about technique or will or any of that crap. You can't run against nine man fronts in the NFL.
5. Bad run blocking. Norris was by no means the only culprit. Really Joe Staley was the only lineman out there who looked worth a damn. Mike Iupati is supposed to be this road grader, and I just haven't seen it from him in camp or preseason and certainly not on Sunday. Chilo Rachal and Anthony Davis have been hit or miss and on Sunday they both missed, getting no push at all and outright whiffing on some blocks.
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Thoughts after Week 1...
Eagles 31, Rams 13 (+5)... What I wrote before the game:
A little early vindication for the "Dream Team" against their critics. Forget the bunk about it being a road game. Anytime the fastest team in football plays in a dome, I'm gonna like their chances. They are vulnerable to the run to be sure, but screw that noise, this is a passing league (I guess the bay area never got the memo on that one).
Texans 34, Colts 7 (+9)... What I said:
Houston had all their points in the first half and thoroughly outclassed the Colts in every way imaginable despite not having Arian Foster available and having gotten only a pedestrian performance from Matt Schaub. I really thought Indy would come out with more fire, but they were zombies out there without Manning, only waking up after the Texans had already made their point.
Detroit 27, Tampa Bay 20 (-1)... What I said:
Oops. Mayhaps I overestimated Tampa Bay's defensive line a bit. They hardly laid a finger on Matt Stafford. The Lions showed a versatile, balanced attack, blending three receivers (not even counting rookie Titus Young), two tight ends and three backs seamlessly so the Bucs defense never knew what was coming. I don't really blame Raheem Morris for only giving LeGarette Blount five carries. Against Detroit you want to go after that secondary. For whatever reason, Freeman looked a little off and took too long to warm up, and even missed a few plays with leg craps (which affected Stafford too).
Chicago 30, Atlanta 12 (-3)... What I said:
Well, I got the Atlanta part of it right at least. For what it's worth, Jay Cutler did get sacked five times in this game and had a late pick-six, but it still didn't matter. Chicago's defense was frisky enough to force a few turnovers -- Charles Tillman might be better at popping the ball loose than any corner in NFL history -- and Cutler let it go enough times to throw for 300 yards, finding Matt Forte and Devin Hester for a couple of long catch-and-runs. Matt Ryan got sacked five times in this one too, gang. The Falcons are overrated.
Cincinnati 27, Cleveland 17 (-7)... What I said:
He only played for a half before hurting his wrist, but rookie Andy Dalton for the Bengals looked calm and poised in the pocket while McCoy, the second year guy looked skittish and often threw off his back foot. He only got going once he got out of the pocket and threw on the run. The Browns had had 1st-and-goal at the 1 with a 14-13 lead and had to settle for a field goal. They had three more drives after that to extend the lead and couldn't do so. They kept the Bengals in the game long enough and it cost them. Besides Dalton, what impressed me about Cincy was their defense, as their front seven did a lot better job of shutting down the run and bringing the heat on McCoy than I thought they would.
Buffalo 41, Kansas City 7 (-6)... What I said:
The way the Bills decimated the Chiefs, at Arrowhead no less, it sure didn't look like an upset. Fitzpatrick is a legitimate quarterback who's come into his own. If he has time to throw he's dangerous and the Chiefs had nobody besides Tamba Hali to bother him. Kansas City is a running team built to play with a lead. The Bills defense with Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus, are built to shut down the run. Bad match-up for KC.
Jacksonville 16, Tennessee 14 (+1)...
I stand by all those statements. I don't care if he ended his holdout three minutes before kickoff, if you're the Titans you have to give the ball to Chris Johnson more. What other options do you have? Matt Hasselbeck looks just about done.
Baltimore 35, Pittsburgh (+2)... What I said:
It was easy to see who was more inspired to play this game. The Ravens sacked Big Ben four times, picked him off thrice and forced seven turnovers in all. Tarell Suggs was a beast all game long with a hat trick of sacks and Ed Reed had two picks and dropped a third. On offense, the Ravens didn't get anything out of Lee Evans or Torrey Smith, but they've found something with the tight end tandem Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta. They're not quite what Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are for the Patriots, but they're getting closer. Also, for no reason whatsoever, they ran a trick play for a two-point conversion to make it a 29-7 game. Oh those Harbaughs... what's their deal?
Arizona 28, Carolina 21 (+7)... What I said:
Well... uh... they lost, didn't they? Obviously Newton was spectacular in the game and he threw for the most yards of any rookie QB making his debut in NFL history, but did you see that Arizona defense? My god, they have no pass rush. Another rookie, Patrick Peterson, scored the winning touchdown on a punt return, but as a corner he looked fairly raw. I was surprised the Panthers didn't run more to protect Newton. They've got two good backs and gave DeAngelo Williams all that money, but I guess he doesn't need protecting, just throwing bombs out of the gate. The Cardinals with Kevin Kolb throwing and Beanie Wells running looked as good as advertised offensively, but they've got problems.
San Diego 24, Minnesota 17 (+9)... What I said:
I didn't exactly foresee 39 passing yards for Donovan McNabb, and Philip Rivers played a bit worse than I would've thought, but yeah, pretty much par for the course. The Vikings o-line had a lot of trouble keeping pass rushers at bay and a hurried McNabb had no rhythm with his receivers. Rivers kept it pretty simple, with a lot of checkdowns and dump-offs to Antonio Gates but it was enough to win, even if it didn't always look pretty.
Washington 28, NY Giants 14 (-3)... What I said:
Rex Grossman passed for 300 yards, so I rest my case. The Redskins usually look frisky early before losing a couple of close games in mid-season and then losing their spirit shortly after. The Giants have the look of that team this year, you know, the one that has 20 names on the injured reserve list.
NY Jets 27, Dallas 24 (+6)... What I said:
Should've listened to my (ample) gut. The Cowboys Romoed themselves again, but it wasn't Tony's fault that Witten didn't try out-muscling Jim Leonhard into the end zone or that nobody blocked Joe McKnight on a fourth quarter punt. The fact is Dallas probably would've won the game going away if Dez Bryant didn't suffer some cramping and a couple of their DBs didn't get hurt, but those things happen. They still look pretty dangerous, albeit as mentally soft as always.
New England 38, Miami 24 (+7)... What I said:
Brady threw a fairly late TD pass to Welker, but it wasn't a game-winner and the Patriots -- well their offense at least -- certainly didn't sleepwalk during the game. The Jets showed in the playoffs that Brady can be confused if you drop eight in coverage, but if you send four or five all night like Miami did and don't touch him? Forget it. It might have been a closer game if the Dolphins had some better play-calling in the red zone. Chad Henne certainly didn't look like a joke to me, though I can't say the same for their safeties.
Oakland 23, Denver 20 (-3)... What I said: "I can see a close Broncos victory or a Raiders blowout." Denver 24, Oakland 19.
And I would've gotten away with it if it wasn't for that dang Kyle Orton and that wet ball. D'oh. Seriously though, what an ugly game. Just completely unwatchable with all those penalties. Darren McFadden is an absolute beast but without a passing game to rely on, the Raiders will get exposed soon enough.
W-L Record: 11-5
W-L Record Vs. Spread: 8-7-1
+/- Points (all games count as one unless specified): -5. TERRIBLE.
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Power Poll:
1. Green Bay (1-0): Didn't exactly look like a championship defense in their opener, but Brees likes to get rid of it quick.
2. Baltimore (1-0): Steelers have allowed 100-yard rusher twice in 52 games. Both times, it was Ray Rice, the most complete back in football.
3. New England (1-0): Similar to Packers -- offense looks unstoppable, pass defense looks spotty. I like Green Bay's personnel at WR, DB a lot more though.
4. Philadelphia (1-0): They're like a baseball team with a great bullpen. You give those pass rushers and corners a 10 point lead, the game's over.
5. San Diego (1-0): They'll always cobble together a passing game with Rivers, but pass rush's dominance surprised me. Losing Luis Castillo is a big blow.
6. NY Jets (1-0): A bit of a lucky win to be sure, but impressive nonetheless without a running game. They got good pressure on Romo.
7. New Orleans (0-1): No shame in losing to Super Bowl champs on the road, but their secondary stinks. Can't they do better than Roman Harper?
8. Chicago (1-0): By hook or by crook they did host NFC title game last year and looked good against Atlanta. Let's see how they do against Saints.
9. Detroit (1-0): A bit too reliant on Jahvid Best late when they still had Maurice Morris and Jerome Harrison. Great game from the offensive line.
10. Buffalo (1-0): Running game more effective now that they stopped forcing half the carries to C.J. Spiller and gave them to Fred Jackson.
11. Houston (1-0): Great first half, bleh second half against Indy, but what does it mean? They might've beaten the worst team in the league. Need more info.
12. Pittsburgh (0-1): They only get this spot out of respect, not merit. Troy Polamalu got that contract for past accomplishments, not future ones.
13. Dallas (0-1): Shaky offensive line, inconsistent secondary, enigmatic receiver, and it still took a Romo choke for them to lose. Same ol' Cowboys.
14. Atlanta (0-1): Good passing game with Matt Ryan, good runner in Michael Turner, OK pass rush, so how'd they get crushed? Team is less than sum of parts.
15. Washington (1-0): They didn't show many holes, but it's early. Not sure I can trust their pass rush or their offensive line for the long term.
16. Tampa Bay (0-1): Almost made an impressive comeback against Lions. They're a young, talented bunch, but still suffering some growing pains.
17. St. Louis (0-1): Injuries to corner Ron Bartell, Denny Amendola and Steven Jackson. Sam Bradford has a sore finger. Otherwise they're in good shape.
18. NY Giants (0-1): The battered defense desperately needs the running game to carry them. Eli Manning might too. They're on the brink of disaster.
19. San Francisco (1-0): Dominating special teams, great run defense, consistent pressure from base four man rush. That's all great, but preseason just ended.
20. Oakland (1-0): Stop me if you've heard this before -- Raiders need to find a passing game, clean up penalties.
21. Arizona (1-0): If they don't find a way to pressure the quarterback, they're gonna give up some "fortyburgers" whenever they play someone outside of division.
22. Miami (0-1): The offense looked like it had a pulse, at least. Tough to gauge defense against Tom Brady and Co. Cramping problems in Florida humidity.
23. Cincinnati (1-0): This might be their high point in the power poll, but you never know. They've got Broncos coming up. I like Andy Dalton.
24. Cleveland (0-1): It's year two, Colt McCoy. Quit looking like such a spaz in the pocket. And tell your defense to line up in time for the snap.
25. Minnesota (0-1): I'm guessing they'll come out throwing next week, just to spare Donovan McNabb the humiliation. Home against Tampa? Interesting game.
26. Carolina (0-1): Yes, Cam Newton looked great, but they might not play a worse defense all year. Plus, they lost Jon Beason for the year.
27. Jacksonville (1-0): It's not fair, but probably honest, if I put Tennessee ahead of them. I mean, what did they show, really?
28. Tennessee (0-1): Well, they showed they were better on Sunday than Tennessee, jackass.
29. Denver (0-1): They need to find a back from somewhere. Knowshon Moreno is a bust. He just is. Just admit it to yourselves already.
30. Kansas City (0-1): The anti-Eagles. You get them down a touchdown and that's the ballgame. Lost Eric Barry, so below average secondary gets worse.
31. Seattle (0-1): Showed some second-half spunkiness at SF, but their offensive line has a lot of problems and their kick coverage was a joke.
32. Indianapolis (0-1): Embarrassing. They've got five great players and 40 awful ones. How does a GM build a team like that? This isn't fantasy football.
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Three teams that might be better than I thought:
3) Buffalo: I don't care that it was just Kansas City. It was still 41-7 and it was on the road in a tough place to play. The Bills have the potential for a balanced offense, which is fairly rare in the NFL and they can stop the run, which helps. Home against Oakland on Sunday, so a great chance for a 2-0 start.
2) Detroit: The jury is still out on Jahvid Best, who doesn't have great acceleration, but I was surprised how easily they won at Tampa.
1) Chicago: The Bears might be one of those teams we don't want to be good, so we look for nits to pick. If Jay Cutler is upright, they'll be in every game.
Three teams that might be worse than I thought:
3) Pittsburgh: Not competitive at all at Baltimore. Tackle Willie Colon out for the year. Mike Wallace only playmaker on offense. Defense looks very old.
2) Kansas City: If Jamaal Charles isn't going off, their goose is cooked. Are they tuning out Todd Haley already?
1) Atlanta: Something is off about them besides just the secondary. I'll be watching closely Sunday night against Philly.
On one hand you can say that the bare bones conservative game plans on both sides of the ball was sound strategy. Why bust out the fine China when you're serving preseason leftovers? They didn't need to do anything fancy to beat the lowly Seahawks, so they saved it for when they will need to out-scheme somebody to win.
On the other hand, you can only hear the "oh, we'll show it later" line only so many times. Until they prove otherwise, the nagging suspicion is that this is what the 49ers are. If they're gonna get more exotic on one side of the ball, I'm guessing it will be the defense that sticks their toes in that pool first.
They have a slim chance of beating what will be a grouchy Cowboys team next Sunday as it is if they go all out, but if they try replicate this approach against Dallas it's going to get real ugly, real quick.
What I liked:
1. I thought the front seven was outstanding against Seattle (albeit against an offensive line starting three guys making their NFL debuts and with just 27 games of experience total), especially the defensive line. I've knocked the 49ers plenty for signing Ray McDonald to a five-year, $20 million contract after he showed nothing for four seasons, but McDonald certainly looked like a player on Sunday. Not only did he get plenty of push in the pocket, but he was tied for the team lead with six tackles. His perceived inability to play the run was the reason he was on the bench in favor of Isaac Sopoaga, but McDonald had no such problems against the Seahawks. Justin Smith was a beast as usual and had two sacks.
What I really liked was the rotation system the coaches used. Ricky Jean Francois and Will Tukuafu both got regular reps and contributed. I was a bit surprised Demarcus Dobbs was inactive, but all the reserves have to be able to contribute on special teams and Tukuafu has more experience there.
Overall the front seven sacked Tarvaris Jackson five times without blitzing much, forced and recovered two fumbles (both on sacks from Parys Haralson), held Seattle to just 64 rushing yards and 2.9 yards per carry, showing no ill effects from the loss of Aubrayo Franklin and Takeo Spikes to free agency. Ahmad Brooks was quiet on the stat sheet but he set the edge well in the run game and just about all of Seattle's gains in the running game came on Haralson's side. NaVarro Bowman was very active and had a great first half. Patrick Willis didn't dominate, but he laid a couple of shots on Jackson and Justin Forsett to force a pair of incomplete passes.
2. Jim Harbaugh got Alex Smith to using one of his best assets -- his legs. People forget that this guy had great rushing numbers at Utah and showed flashes of scrambling ability in 2006 and very early in 2007 before he suffered that separated shoulder. Smith's a little older now, and no one will confuse him for Michael Vick, but once he escapes the pocket he's fast enough to not be chased down from behind by the trailing linemen and linebackers. Instead of being a sitting duck in the pocket when protection breaks down, Smith took off against Seattle and gained whatever he could get. Sure, it's dangerous for a quarterback to dive into two people at the end zone or to be used as a lead blocker on toss plays, but Smith suffered his career-changing injury in the pocket and quarterbacks get hurt a lot more back there than when they're ball carriers. Besides, as Smith showed multiple times on Sunday, he's plenty athletic enough to slide correctly. He looks smooth doing it.
3. No foolishness. It didn't look pretty, but at least the 49ers didn't embarrass themselves out there the way they had in past seasons. There were no issues getting the plays in on time. No emotional outbursts or yelling matches on the sidelines. No obvious strategical gaffes. Nothing Seattle did that the 49ers weren't ready for. Numerous 49ers said after the game that what they appreciated the most about Harbaugh, even more than his football acumen, was that he's the exact same guy Monday-Saturday that he is on Sunday. He makes his points when he's upset, but he's not a screamer. He can offer constructive coaching tips instead of just mindless yelling and hollering.
Most of all, and Harbaugh has shown this all training camp and preseason, is he's not going to hang out anyone out to dry. No matter how bad one unit of the team or an individual plays, Harbaugh won't admit it publicly. He'll say a guy is playing swell and the coaches love him and then quietly bench him a week later with no notice to us. It won't make him popular with the media, but his locker room will appreciate it.
4. No dependance on Crabtree. Not by the coaching staff or by Alex Smith. The former played him about 2/3 of the snaps in the first half, but a lot of those were running plays. They saw he was limping around and not running well and they benched him in the second half.
As for Smith, it was obviously a mistake on his part to miss a wide-open Crabtree in the end zone in the 2nd quarter, but I liked that he only looked Crabtree's way twice in the game. Last year in the season opener he threw to Crabtree plenty even though the receiver had missed the whole preseason with a neck injury and it was clear he wasn't ready to play. He didn't know all his routes and a couple balls clanked off his hands. Now, Smith is secure enough to make Crab prove to him that he knows what he's doing. Smith has other options in Vernon Davis, in Braylon Edwards and Joshua Morgan. Crabtree has to earn his quarterback's trust.
5. The special teams, obviously. David Akers was 4-for-4 on field goals, Andy Lee had a record-setting day in punting average for a guy with a minimum of four in a game and Ted Ginn had two scores and set a 49ers record for return yardage with 268. What's not to like? Seattle's averages of 22.8 yards on kickoff returns and 9 yards on punt returns weren't bad, but their longest return was 28 yards, which is perfectly fine.
On Ginn's kickoff return touchdown, the Niners had a left return set up and Seattle's two guys on the right, corner Walter Thurmond and safety Earl Thomas, cheated toward the middle and lost backside containment. Ginn saw it and cut back to the right quickly and Colin Jones sealed his guy inside. Thurmond was sucked in too far and Thomas lost the footrace. On the punt return, Tramaine Brock had the initial block to take care of the first man and then Shawntae Spencer got in the way of the last guy at the middle of the field. No one else had a chance.
What I didn't like:
1. Too many dinky college plays. By that I mean the misdirection tosses to Frank Gore with Smith lead blocking, the backside screen to Davis and the bubble screen to Joshua Morgan. All these passes at the line of scrimmage might work against Washington State, but NFL defenders are too fast. Even if they work once, they'll never work again the rest of the year because people will scout it. For a supposed west coast team I sure didn't see many slants or crossing routes out there. It was a lot of short hitches. There was one nice route combination with Crabtree running a post to clear the deep crossing route for Davis, but otherwise it was a bunch of plays designed to get five yards and get tackled immediately.
2. Not trusting Smith on 3rd down. It's silly to expect Frank Gore to gain enough yardage on a draw on 3rd-and-long. The 49ers aren't the Packers or Eagles. Defenses don't respect their QB or the speed of their receivers to totally sell out against the pass. As long as Gore is out there, he will always be the primary focus of the defense, regardless of down and distance. If any team can get away with a play-action on 3rd-and-long, it should be the 49ers. Instead they're running draws. Hopefully it was all a set-up for Week 2.
3. Where was Kendall Hunter? Just two carries for the rookie. Removing him from kickoff return duty is one thing, but giving Gore 22 carries to two for Hunter is just silly. It's a long season and you just gave Gore an extension with some decent guaranteed money, why wear him down by relentlessly hammering him into nine-man lines? How about Anthony Dixon for some of those short-yardage carries. Why is he on the roster if you won't use him there? Why is he even dressed?
4. Too much Moran Norris. 32 snaps in fact. He was god awful, missing blocks left and right. Bruce Miller didn't play one snap on offense. I don't remember how many times the 49ers played a power formation with six linemen, Davis, one receiver and two backs. But it almost never worked. Seattle always had more guys at the line than the 49ers could block. Seriously, knock that stuff off. Look at the Singletary tapes from the last two years. It's not about technique or will or any of that crap. You can't run against nine man fronts in the NFL.
5. Bad run blocking. Norris was by no means the only culprit. Really Joe Staley was the only lineman out there who looked worth a damn. Mike Iupati is supposed to be this road grader, and I just haven't seen it from him in camp or preseason and certainly not on Sunday. Chilo Rachal and Anthony Davis have been hit or miss and on Sunday they both missed, getting no push at all and outright whiffing on some blocks.
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Thoughts after Week 1...
Eagles 31, Rams 13 (+5)... What I wrote before the game:
"Philadelphia's the speediest team in the league and now they play on the fast track in St. Louis? Yeah, I think I like 'em in this one." Eagles 34, Rams 17."
A little early vindication for the "Dream Team" against their critics. Forget the bunk about it being a road game. Anytime the fastest team in football plays in a dome, I'm gonna like their chances. They are vulnerable to the run to be sure, but screw that noise, this is a passing league (I guess the bay area never got the memo on that one).
Texans 34, Colts 7 (+9)... What I said:
"What they don't have: Any talent besides Peyton Manning. Also, that coaching staff is about to get exposed in a bad way." Texans 27, Colts 13.
Houston had all their points in the first half and thoroughly outclassed the Colts in every way imaginable despite not having Arian Foster available and having gotten only a pedestrian performance from Matt Schaub. I really thought Indy would come out with more fire, but they were zombies out there without Manning, only waking up after the Texans had already made their point.
Detroit 27, Tampa Bay 20 (-1)... What I said:
"I find this line kind of ridiculous, quite frankly. The Buccaneers and Josh Freeman get no respect." Buccaneers 30, Lions 20 *THREE POINT SPECIAL.*
Oops. Mayhaps I overestimated Tampa Bay's defensive line a bit. They hardly laid a finger on Matt Stafford. The Lions showed a versatile, balanced attack, blending three receivers (not even counting rookie Titus Young), two tight ends and three backs seamlessly so the Bucs defense never knew what was coming. I don't really blame Raheem Morris for only giving LeGarette Blount five carries. Against Detroit you want to go after that secondary. For whatever reason, Freeman looked a little off and took too long to warm up, and even missed a few plays with leg craps (which affected Stafford too).
Chicago 30, Atlanta 12 (-3)... What I said:
"I'm not high at all on the Falcons, mainly because I don't think any more highly of their defensive backs than Detroit's, but I'm even more down on the Bears, who might have the worst offensive line in the league." Falcons 20, Bears 13 *TWO POINT SPECIAL.*
Well, I got the Atlanta part of it right at least. For what it's worth, Jay Cutler did get sacked five times in this game and had a late pick-six, but it still didn't matter. Chicago's defense was frisky enough to force a few turnovers -- Charles Tillman might be better at popping the ball loose than any corner in NFL history -- and Cutler let it go enough times to throw for 300 yards, finding Matt Forte and Devin Hester for a couple of long catch-and-runs. Matt Ryan got sacked five times in this one too, gang. The Falcons are overrated.
Cincinnati 27, Cleveland 17 (-7)... What I said:
"Colt McCoy isn't that far removed from being a rookie himself and I'm not about to give him seven points against anyone but Kansas or Iowa State." Browns 17, Bengals 13.
He only played for a half before hurting his wrist, but rookie Andy Dalton for the Bengals looked calm and poised in the pocket while McCoy, the second year guy looked skittish and often threw off his back foot. He only got going once he got out of the pocket and threw on the run. The Browns had had 1st-and-goal at the 1 with a 14-13 lead and had to settle for a field goal. They had three more drives after that to extend the lead and couldn't do so. They kept the Bengals in the game long enough and it cost them. Besides Dalton, what impressed me about Cincy was their defense, as their front seven did a lot better job of shutting down the run and bringing the heat on McCoy than I thought they would.
Buffalo 41, Kansas City 7 (-6)... What I said:
"I like Ryan Fitzpatrick more than most and I just have a hunch the Bills will have a frisky offense, even with a crummy line. A funky upset pick here." Bills 27, Chiefs 23.
The way the Bills decimated the Chiefs, at Arrowhead no less, it sure didn't look like an upset. Fitzpatrick is a legitimate quarterback who's come into his own. If he has time to throw he's dangerous and the Chiefs had nobody besides Tamba Hali to bother him. Kansas City is a running team built to play with a lead. The Bills defense with Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus, are built to shut down the run. Bad match-up for KC.
Jacksonville 16, Tennessee 14 (+1)...
"What a snoozer. Why can't both teams just started Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert? Sure, it'd still be a terrible game, but in an interesting way." Titans 27, Jaguars 10 *FOUR POINT SPECIAL.*
I stand by all those statements. I don't care if he ended his holdout three minutes before kickoff, if you're the Titans you have to give the ball to Chris Johnson more. What other options do you have? Matt Hasselbeck looks just about done.
Baltimore 35, Pittsburgh (+2)... What I said:
"I picked the Ravens to make the Super Bowl. For them to get there, they'll have to win games like this." Ravens 23, Steelers 20.
It was easy to see who was more inspired to play this game. The Ravens sacked Big Ben four times, picked him off thrice and forced seven turnovers in all. Tarell Suggs was a beast all game long with a hat trick of sacks and Ed Reed had two picks and dropped a third. On offense, the Ravens didn't get anything out of Lee Evans or Torrey Smith, but they've found something with the tight end tandem Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta. They're not quite what Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are for the Patriots, but they're getting closer. Also, for no reason whatsoever, they ran a trick play for a two-point conversion to make it a 29-7 game. Oh those Harbaughs... what's their deal?
Arizona 28, Carolina 21 (+7)... What I said:
"I think the Panthers will finish with the worst record in the league if Cam Newton starts all 16 games. They can't draft a franchise QB three years in a row, can they?" Cardinals 26, Panthers 9 *FIVE POINT SPECIAL*
Well... uh... they lost, didn't they? Obviously Newton was spectacular in the game and he threw for the most yards of any rookie QB making his debut in NFL history, but did you see that Arizona defense? My god, they have no pass rush. Another rookie, Patrick Peterson, scored the winning touchdown on a punt return, but as a corner he looked fairly raw. I was surprised the Panthers didn't run more to protect Newton. They've got two good backs and gave DeAngelo Williams all that money, but I guess he doesn't need protecting, just throwing bombs out of the gate. The Cardinals with Kevin Kolb throwing and Beanie Wells running looked as good as advertised offensively, but they've got problems.
San Diego 24, Minnesota 17 (+9)... What I said:
"I like the Chargers, but they typically start slow, and nine points against a team with Adrian Peterson on it is too rich for my blood." Chargers 26, Vikings 20.
I didn't exactly foresee 39 passing yards for Donovan McNabb, and Philip Rivers played a bit worse than I would've thought, but yeah, pretty much par for the course. The Vikings o-line had a lot of trouble keeping pass rushers at bay and a hurried McNabb had no rhythm with his receivers. Rivers kept it pretty simple, with a lot of checkdowns and dump-offs to Antonio Gates but it was enough to win, even if it didn't always look pretty.
Washington 28, NY Giants 14 (-3)... What I said:
"The Giants have zero momentum headed into the game and their defense is so beat up at all three levels. If Washington can run the ball at all, they should spring the mild upset." Redskins 23, Giants 17.
Rex Grossman passed for 300 yards, so I rest my case. The Redskins usually look frisky early before losing a couple of close games in mid-season and then losing their spirit shortly after. The Giants have the look of that team this year, you know, the one that has 20 names on the injured reserve list.
NY Jets 27, Dallas 24 (+6)... What I said:
"I'm high on the Jets, but it's a leap of faith to back them by almost a full touchdown against what could be a high-octane Dallas offense." Jets 23, Cowboys 13.
Should've listened to my (ample) gut. The Cowboys Romoed themselves again, but it wasn't Tony's fault that Witten didn't try out-muscling Jim Leonhard into the end zone or that nobody blocked Joe McKnight on a fourth quarter punt. The fact is Dallas probably would've won the game going away if Dez Bryant didn't suffer some cramping and a couple of their DBs didn't get hurt, but those things happen. They still look pretty dangerous, albeit as mentally soft as always.
New England 38, Miami 24 (+7)... What I said:
"It'll be one of those games where New England sleepwalks through three quarters and Miami takes a three point lead late into the game. Then, of course Tom Brady will throw a touchdown pass to Wes Welker with like 58 seconds to go and they'll win by four, to piss off the bettors AND the people who hate them." New England 24, Miami 20.
Brady threw a fairly late TD pass to Welker, but it wasn't a game-winner and the Patriots -- well their offense at least -- certainly didn't sleepwalk during the game. The Jets showed in the playoffs that Brady can be confused if you drop eight in coverage, but if you send four or five all night like Miami did and don't touch him? Forget it. It might have been a closer game if the Dolphins had some better play-calling in the red zone. Chad Henne certainly didn't look like a joke to me, though I can't say the same for their safeties.
Oakland 23, Denver 20 (-3)... What I said: "I can see a close Broncos victory or a Raiders blowout." Denver 24, Oakland 19.
And I would've gotten away with it if it wasn't for that dang Kyle Orton and that wet ball. D'oh. Seriously though, what an ugly game. Just completely unwatchable with all those penalties. Darren McFadden is an absolute beast but without a passing game to rely on, the Raiders will get exposed soon enough.
W-L Record: 11-5
W-L Record Vs. Spread: 8-7-1
+/- Points (all games count as one unless specified): -5. TERRIBLE.
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Power Poll:
1. Green Bay (1-0): Didn't exactly look like a championship defense in their opener, but Brees likes to get rid of it quick.
2. Baltimore (1-0): Steelers have allowed 100-yard rusher twice in 52 games. Both times, it was Ray Rice, the most complete back in football.
3. New England (1-0): Similar to Packers -- offense looks unstoppable, pass defense looks spotty. I like Green Bay's personnel at WR, DB a lot more though.
4. Philadelphia (1-0): They're like a baseball team with a great bullpen. You give those pass rushers and corners a 10 point lead, the game's over.
5. San Diego (1-0): They'll always cobble together a passing game with Rivers, but pass rush's dominance surprised me. Losing Luis Castillo is a big blow.
6. NY Jets (1-0): A bit of a lucky win to be sure, but impressive nonetheless without a running game. They got good pressure on Romo.
7. New Orleans (0-1): No shame in losing to Super Bowl champs on the road, but their secondary stinks. Can't they do better than Roman Harper?
8. Chicago (1-0): By hook or by crook they did host NFC title game last year and looked good against Atlanta. Let's see how they do against Saints.
9. Detroit (1-0): A bit too reliant on Jahvid Best late when they still had Maurice Morris and Jerome Harrison. Great game from the offensive line.
10. Buffalo (1-0): Running game more effective now that they stopped forcing half the carries to C.J. Spiller and gave them to Fred Jackson.
11. Houston (1-0): Great first half, bleh second half against Indy, but what does it mean? They might've beaten the worst team in the league. Need more info.
12. Pittsburgh (0-1): They only get this spot out of respect, not merit. Troy Polamalu got that contract for past accomplishments, not future ones.
13. Dallas (0-1): Shaky offensive line, inconsistent secondary, enigmatic receiver, and it still took a Romo choke for them to lose. Same ol' Cowboys.
14. Atlanta (0-1): Good passing game with Matt Ryan, good runner in Michael Turner, OK pass rush, so how'd they get crushed? Team is less than sum of parts.
15. Washington (1-0): They didn't show many holes, but it's early. Not sure I can trust their pass rush or their offensive line for the long term.
16. Tampa Bay (0-1): Almost made an impressive comeback against Lions. They're a young, talented bunch, but still suffering some growing pains.
17. St. Louis (0-1): Injuries to corner Ron Bartell, Denny Amendola and Steven Jackson. Sam Bradford has a sore finger. Otherwise they're in good shape.
18. NY Giants (0-1): The battered defense desperately needs the running game to carry them. Eli Manning might too. They're on the brink of disaster.
19. San Francisco (1-0): Dominating special teams, great run defense, consistent pressure from base four man rush. That's all great, but preseason just ended.
20. Oakland (1-0): Stop me if you've heard this before -- Raiders need to find a passing game, clean up penalties.
21. Arizona (1-0): If they don't find a way to pressure the quarterback, they're gonna give up some "fortyburgers" whenever they play someone outside of division.
22. Miami (0-1): The offense looked like it had a pulse, at least. Tough to gauge defense against Tom Brady and Co. Cramping problems in Florida humidity.
23. Cincinnati (1-0): This might be their high point in the power poll, but you never know. They've got Broncos coming up. I like Andy Dalton.
24. Cleveland (0-1): It's year two, Colt McCoy. Quit looking like such a spaz in the pocket. And tell your defense to line up in time for the snap.
25. Minnesota (0-1): I'm guessing they'll come out throwing next week, just to spare Donovan McNabb the humiliation. Home against Tampa? Interesting game.
26. Carolina (0-1): Yes, Cam Newton looked great, but they might not play a worse defense all year. Plus, they lost Jon Beason for the year.
27. Jacksonville (1-0): It's not fair, but probably honest, if I put Tennessee ahead of them. I mean, what did they show, really?
28. Tennessee (0-1): Well, they showed they were better on Sunday than Tennessee, jackass.
29. Denver (0-1): They need to find a back from somewhere. Knowshon Moreno is a bust. He just is. Just admit it to yourselves already.
30. Kansas City (0-1): The anti-Eagles. You get them down a touchdown and that's the ballgame. Lost Eric Barry, so below average secondary gets worse.
31. Seattle (0-1): Showed some second-half spunkiness at SF, but their offensive line has a lot of problems and their kick coverage was a joke.
32. Indianapolis (0-1): Embarrassing. They've got five great players and 40 awful ones. How does a GM build a team like that? This isn't fantasy football.
********************************************************************************
Three teams that might be better than I thought:
3) Buffalo: I don't care that it was just Kansas City. It was still 41-7 and it was on the road in a tough place to play. The Bills have the potential for a balanced offense, which is fairly rare in the NFL and they can stop the run, which helps. Home against Oakland on Sunday, so a great chance for a 2-0 start.
2) Detroit: The jury is still out on Jahvid Best, who doesn't have great acceleration, but I was surprised how easily they won at Tampa.
1) Chicago: The Bears might be one of those teams we don't want to be good, so we look for nits to pick. If Jay Cutler is upright, they'll be in every game.
Three teams that might be worse than I thought:
3) Pittsburgh: Not competitive at all at Baltimore. Tackle Willie Colon out for the year. Mike Wallace only playmaker on offense. Defense looks very old.
2) Kansas City: If Jamaal Charles isn't going off, their goose is cooked. Are they tuning out Todd Haley already?
1) Atlanta: Something is off about them besides just the secondary. I'll be watching closely Sunday night against Philly.
Sunday, September 11, 2011
49ers Special Teams Makes a Winner of Harbaugh -- A Ginn
SAN FRANCISCO -- Football players can be really selfish pricks sometimes.
You think you've got a storyline going, where a certain theme has been established for 55 minutes and change and a chance at a really dramatic ending set up to make up for what was mostly a dull affair.
And then stupid ol' Ted Ginn ruins it with back-to-back touchdown returns; first a 102-yard kickoff he raced back all the way down the right sideline to make it a 26-17 ballgame with 3:45 to go, and then, just for the heck of it, a 55-yard punt return right up the gut a mere 59 seconds later to close out the scoring.
Obviously going into the game all the focus was on 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh, but it was another import from Stanford, Seahawks receiver Doug Baldwin, who took a short pass from beleaguered quarterback Tarvaris Jackson, broke one tackle and zoomed past the 49ers secondary for a 55-yard touchdown to make it a perilous 19-17 lead for the hosts with 3:56 to go.
The 49ers had been winning, mostly comfortably, for the better part of the final three quarters, but Baldwin's score was supposed to show us a couple of things. It was supposed to give us some kind of definitive proof, one way or another, that Harbaugh's offense, which had sputtered in fits and starts the whole game, could finally get creative enough to manage a couple of first downs when it mattered. Finally, after enduring 55 minutes of Alex Smith playing with one hand tied behind his back, we were gonna witness the extent of just how much Harbaugh trusted his quarterback.
But no, Ginn had other plans.
"On a kickoff you’re always taking a chance," said Ginn afterward. "Sometimes you might not make it to the 20. You might only get to the 10 or 15-yard-line and hurt your offense, but with our special teams you always have a chance."
Harbaugh seemed to think the 49ers had a chance simply by handing it up to gut to Frank Gore -- eight-man Seattle fronts be damned -- and to avoid those dreaded turnovers and sacks. This formula, which he described as "blue-collar" seemed familiar somehow, but I'm having difficulty putting my finger on it.
If you think the comparisons to Mike Singletary are too harsh, then consider try these numbers on for size: The offense managed a whopping 209 yards, Gore averaged a paltry 2.7 per his 22(!) carries and they converted 1-of-12 3rd down attempts while scoring exactly one touchdown on five trips to the red zone. Twice the defense gifted them the ball deep inside Seattle territory in the first half and repeated handoffs to Gore led only to a 6-0 lead, thanks to two short David Akers field goals.
The boys produced another field goal drive midway through the second before finally embarking on their one touchdown drive of the afternoon, right before half. It covered 49 yards, but Smith found Vernon Davis for a couple of receptions and had an 11 yard scramble of his own.
Harbaugh has mentioned multiple times how mobility and "athletic instincts" are traits he looks for in quarterbacks (see Kaepernick, Colin) and one gets impression that Smith the message: Scramble or sit. He ran five times for 24 yards, and his bootleg to the right side from a yard out with 12 seconds to go in the half was a gutty effort, as he dove at the end zone with two defenders bearing down on him.
"I think I have that ability," said Smith. "The last couple of years I got away from that a little bit, there was a different emphasis."
And that emphasis was making him the scapegoat for everything that went wrong, mostly.
Clearly keeping Smith safe and sound is not a big emphasis for Harbaugh. Smith's most important contribution in the first quarter was to serve as a lead blocker for Gore on a misdirection toss play, and Smith did well to wall off two Seahawks pursuers. Smith was wise enough to dive after getting what he could on his scrambles, but asking him to use his legs when the blocking breaks down instead of trying to wait for receivers to get open is a dicey proposition.
Even though Smith completed 15-of-20 passes and managed a perfectly respectable 90.4 passer rating, he only totaled 124 yards through the air (6.2 yards per attempt) and was handcuffed far too much in the red zone. We were led to believe that the 49ers vanilla offense in the preseason was just for show, that they were saving the "real" offense for when the games count, but judging from what we saw today, the August fare was the real offense. What you saw is what you get. Either Smith will have to earn his coach's trust before he's allowed to pass like a real life NFL quarterback, or Harbaugh badly miscalculated in thinking the same dinky bubble screens and tight end screens that worked at Stanford will work here.
Enough negative stuff for now. Offense aside the 49ers did play quite superbly. The defense held Seattle to only 219 yards (64 on the ground and just 2.9 per carry) and made life miserable for Jackson, sacking him five times, stripping him of the ball twice and intercepting him once on a Hail Mary attempt. End Ray McDonald's five-year, $20 million contract looked like a great investment and it was amazing to see how drafting his replacement with the seventh overall pick of the draft rejuvenated Parys Haralson, who had two sacks. Justin Smith added two sacks of his own, which wasn't surprising because he's Justin Smith and the Seahawks offensive linemen were a bunch of rookies who aren't Justin Smith.
The 49ers subbed liberally along the defensive line, using both Ricky Jean Francois and Will Tukuafu to great effect, and they brought in Aldon Smith and safety Reggie Smith for passing downs, replacing Haralson and Madieu Williams, who was the injured Dashon Goldson's fill-in as the starting free safety. Interestingly, it was Tramaine Brock who checked in as the nickel corner (and who got the interception) and not Shawntae Spencer, the 49ers longtime starter who pronounced his hamstring fully healed. Rookie Chris Culliver also didn't play from scrimmage.
San Francisco's real edge, however, was on special teams. Ginn had 268 return yards to Seattle's 114, Akers was perfect on four field goal attempts and punter Andy Lee boomed five long ones, averaging 59.6 gross and 54.2 net. It's damn near impossible to kick ass as a special teams unit more than that, without forcing a few fumbles or blocking a kick or two anyway.
Add it all up and the 49ers are 1-0, beating an opponent they had absolutely no excuses against. Alex Smith still has proven precious little to soothe the fan base and Harbaugh even less. Pre-season officially ended a couple weeks back at San Diego, but for all intents and purposes it ended tonight. The Cowboys come to town next week and 209 yards of offense will not cut it.
Well, unless Ginn goes bonkers again.
You think you've got a storyline going, where a certain theme has been established for 55 minutes and change and a chance at a really dramatic ending set up to make up for what was mostly a dull affair.
And then stupid ol' Ted Ginn ruins it with back-to-back touchdown returns; first a 102-yard kickoff he raced back all the way down the right sideline to make it a 26-17 ballgame with 3:45 to go, and then, just for the heck of it, a 55-yard punt return right up the gut a mere 59 seconds later to close out the scoring.
Obviously going into the game all the focus was on 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh, but it was another import from Stanford, Seahawks receiver Doug Baldwin, who took a short pass from beleaguered quarterback Tarvaris Jackson, broke one tackle and zoomed past the 49ers secondary for a 55-yard touchdown to make it a perilous 19-17 lead for the hosts with 3:56 to go.
The 49ers had been winning, mostly comfortably, for the better part of the final three quarters, but Baldwin's score was supposed to show us a couple of things. It was supposed to give us some kind of definitive proof, one way or another, that Harbaugh's offense, which had sputtered in fits and starts the whole game, could finally get creative enough to manage a couple of first downs when it mattered. Finally, after enduring 55 minutes of Alex Smith playing with one hand tied behind his back, we were gonna witness the extent of just how much Harbaugh trusted his quarterback.
But no, Ginn had other plans.
"On a kickoff you’re always taking a chance," said Ginn afterward. "Sometimes you might not make it to the 20. You might only get to the 10 or 15-yard-line and hurt your offense, but with our special teams you always have a chance."
Harbaugh seemed to think the 49ers had a chance simply by handing it up to gut to Frank Gore -- eight-man Seattle fronts be damned -- and to avoid those dreaded turnovers and sacks. This formula, which he described as "blue-collar" seemed familiar somehow, but I'm having difficulty putting my finger on it.
If you think the comparisons to Mike Singletary are too harsh, then consider try these numbers on for size: The offense managed a whopping 209 yards, Gore averaged a paltry 2.7 per his 22(!) carries and they converted 1-of-12 3rd down attempts while scoring exactly one touchdown on five trips to the red zone. Twice the defense gifted them the ball deep inside Seattle territory in the first half and repeated handoffs to Gore led only to a 6-0 lead, thanks to two short David Akers field goals.
The boys produced another field goal drive midway through the second before finally embarking on their one touchdown drive of the afternoon, right before half. It covered 49 yards, but Smith found Vernon Davis for a couple of receptions and had an 11 yard scramble of his own.
Harbaugh has mentioned multiple times how mobility and "athletic instincts" are traits he looks for in quarterbacks (see Kaepernick, Colin) and one gets impression that Smith the message: Scramble or sit. He ran five times for 24 yards, and his bootleg to the right side from a yard out with 12 seconds to go in the half was a gutty effort, as he dove at the end zone with two defenders bearing down on him.
"I think I have that ability," said Smith. "The last couple of years I got away from that a little bit, there was a different emphasis."
And that emphasis was making him the scapegoat for everything that went wrong, mostly.
Clearly keeping Smith safe and sound is not a big emphasis for Harbaugh. Smith's most important contribution in the first quarter was to serve as a lead blocker for Gore on a misdirection toss play, and Smith did well to wall off two Seahawks pursuers. Smith was wise enough to dive after getting what he could on his scrambles, but asking him to use his legs when the blocking breaks down instead of trying to wait for receivers to get open is a dicey proposition.
Even though Smith completed 15-of-20 passes and managed a perfectly respectable 90.4 passer rating, he only totaled 124 yards through the air (6.2 yards per attempt) and was handcuffed far too much in the red zone. We were led to believe that the 49ers vanilla offense in the preseason was just for show, that they were saving the "real" offense for when the games count, but judging from what we saw today, the August fare was the real offense. What you saw is what you get. Either Smith will have to earn his coach's trust before he's allowed to pass like a real life NFL quarterback, or Harbaugh badly miscalculated in thinking the same dinky bubble screens and tight end screens that worked at Stanford will work here.
Enough negative stuff for now. Offense aside the 49ers did play quite superbly. The defense held Seattle to only 219 yards (64 on the ground and just 2.9 per carry) and made life miserable for Jackson, sacking him five times, stripping him of the ball twice and intercepting him once on a Hail Mary attempt. End Ray McDonald's five-year, $20 million contract looked like a great investment and it was amazing to see how drafting his replacement with the seventh overall pick of the draft rejuvenated Parys Haralson, who had two sacks. Justin Smith added two sacks of his own, which wasn't surprising because he's Justin Smith and the Seahawks offensive linemen were a bunch of rookies who aren't Justin Smith.
The 49ers subbed liberally along the defensive line, using both Ricky Jean Francois and Will Tukuafu to great effect, and they brought in Aldon Smith and safety Reggie Smith for passing downs, replacing Haralson and Madieu Williams, who was the injured Dashon Goldson's fill-in as the starting free safety. Interestingly, it was Tramaine Brock who checked in as the nickel corner (and who got the interception) and not Shawntae Spencer, the 49ers longtime starter who pronounced his hamstring fully healed. Rookie Chris Culliver also didn't play from scrimmage.
San Francisco's real edge, however, was on special teams. Ginn had 268 return yards to Seattle's 114, Akers was perfect on four field goal attempts and punter Andy Lee boomed five long ones, averaging 59.6 gross and 54.2 net. It's damn near impossible to kick ass as a special teams unit more than that, without forcing a few fumbles or blocking a kick or two anyway.
Add it all up and the 49ers are 1-0, beating an opponent they had absolutely no excuses against. Alex Smith still has proven precious little to soothe the fan base and Harbaugh even less. Pre-season officially ended a couple weeks back at San Diego, but for all intents and purposes it ended tonight. The Cowboys come to town next week and 209 yards of offense will not cut it.
Well, unless Ginn goes bonkers again.
Friday, September 9, 2011
49ers-Seahawks Preview, Week 1 Picks
Ordinarily in this corner we don't rush to Alex Smith for juicy pregame quotes, but considering that the only alternative is one of Jim Harbaugh's thousand-yards-in-the-distance stares when asked anything more substantive than whether he has the time (answer: nope), we are left to turn our lonely hearts to the 49ers beleaguered quarterback.
So, take it away, Alex. How are you feeling going into the opener of what will be the seventh season of your heretofore Greek tragedy of a career?
"Excited. This is a huge game. I mean they are all huge games. This is number one. This starts it off. It’s a division game at home. Seattle coming down, a lot at stake and excited for it. I’m excited for the challenge."
Neat-o.
With all due respect, if the Seahawks pose as any kind of challenge to Smith and his mates, the 49ers will be in dire straights in 2011, just as they have been lo these past eight years. We're talking about a Seattle team whose offensive line has been in constant flux, whose best receiver last season -- Mike Williams -- was a castoff from the Detroit Lions and whose two best pass rushers -- Chris Clemons and Raheem Brock -- were little-used backups on their former teams. The Seahawks jettisoned quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, who was 34-year-old, brittle, and ten kinds of awful last season (12 TDs, 17 INT, 73.2 QB rating) and somehow got worse at the position, bringing in Tarvaris Jackson to replace him.
The Seahawks didn't do much of anything to upgrade what was the 27th-ranked defense in the league last season and by all appearances they seem to be if not flat out tanking for Andrew Luck then at least not terribly bothered by the perception of being among a handful of likely candidates for his services.
Despite all of that, it won't be easy for Smith to beat them on Sunday, because nothing has ever come easily for Smith during his 49ers career. After all, if he had played the way he's played for almost any other organization, he would've been told to hit the bricks a long time ago. Also, just about any other pro quarterback would've had the self-respect to leave for greener pastures with his dignity intact, defiantly thrusting his middle fingers at the vague direction of 4949 Centennial Blvd. as their private jet pointed him somewhere -- anywhere -- else.
No, it's never been easy for Smith, but more often than not it has been interesting in a morbid way, especially against Seattle.
In 2006 he went 2-0 against the defending conference champions, including a 24-14 win in week 15 at Seattle where he threw for two scores and scrambled for another. This was his second season, back when Norv Turner was his coordinator and Smith showed just enough promise that the fan-base was still mostly behind him.
In 2007, things turned sour. The forgettable Jim Hostler took over for Turner as offensive coordinator once Norville got hired to be the head whistle at San Diego, and though the team had a 2-1 record through three weeks, Smith's play had regressed from his sophomore season. In the fourth game against the Seahawks, he got flattened by defensive tackle Rocky Bernard and separated his right (throwing) shoulder. By all intents and purposes the injury should've knocked out Smith for a good long while, if not the whole season, but he was bullied into playing with it by former coach Mike Nolan just three weeks later, which only damaged it worse. Smith came back to play three terrible games where he hardly could throw at all before being shut down, and lost all of the 2008 year due to surgical complications.
In 2009, Smith didn't wrestle the starting job away from good friend Shaun Hill until the sixth game. In a crucial early December loss at Seattle he finally recorded his first 300-yard passing day in 36 starts and played quite well besides, but he was done in by a Frank Gore fumble and another on a punt return and poof went the 49ers division hopes.
Buoyed by Smith's play down the stretch and what looked by far like the best team in the division on paper, many expected the 49ers to make playoffs last year. The campaign was supposed to start with a laugher at Seattle, where an experienced Niners crew would teach a thing or two to Pete Carroll, who was returning to the NFL to coach the Seahawks after a long (and successful) sabbatical in the college ranks. Smith started well, but was off just enough to miss wide open receivers Joshua Morgan and Moran Norris in the end zone on a pair of early drives. The 49ers were up 6-0 20 minutes into the game when it should've been 17 or 21-0. Eventually the Seahawks warmed up, they took advantage of a rusty and unprepared Michael Crabtree and won going away 31-6.
Later in the same season, when all hope was mostly lost, Smith got a measure of revenge against the Seahawks, playing brilliantly and throwing three first-half touchdown passes en route to a 40-21 thumping of the visitors. It was the most points the 49ers franchise ever scored against Seattle, besting the efforts of any of those Joe Montana and Steve Young teams (albeit the 'Hawks were in the AFC back then and we didn't see them very often).
So here we go again, another season opener against the Seahawks, this time at the friendly confines of the 'Stick. More than any quarterback on the Sunday slate, Smith will be walking the proverbial tightrope. He absolutely needs to win this game, and hopefully look good while doing so.
He doesn't have poor coaching as an excuse anymore -- not only will Harbaugh, a former first-round pick himself be coaching him up between series, but he'll be personally relaying the play-calls into Smith's headset and giving him pointers and advice before every play. The past two head coaches Smith had either didn't even bother wearing the headphones when the offense was on the field (Nolan) or imparted useful advice such as "don't throw an interception." (Mike Singletary.)
The cast around him won't be an excuse either. Gore is back healthy and Kendall Hunter looks like a dynamic understudy. Vernon Davis remains one of the elite players at his position. Whereas last year they had to rush Crabtree onto the field and play him 65 snaps even though he missed all of preseason with a neck injury, this time the 49ers have Braylon Edwards to complement Morgan, giving them two starting-caliber receivers to play most of the snaps while Crabtree mixes in gradually and to his comfort level. It's true the offensive line has looked atrocious at times during the preseason, but generally they've been a group that plays far better at home than on the road and Seattle's pass-rush, which wasn't reminiscent of "The Fearsome Foursome" in the first place, will be further limited by Chris Clemons' wonky ankle.
It's true that there is potential for Seattle to score a few points of their own, even without Sidney Rice and road-grader Robert Gallery. The 49ers will start an entirely new secondary than the foursome that played most of the snaps in 2010. Corner Carlos Rogers and strong safety Donte Whitner were free agent additions penned into the starting lineup from day one, while free safety Madieu Williams -- another free agent -- plays in place of injured Dashon Goldson and Tarell Brown starts at the other corner spot in favor of Shawntae Spencer, who missed all of camp with a balky hamstring.
In fact, eight of the 11 49ers defenders who figure to play a lot on Sunday will be different than the ones who got the lion's share of the game reps the year before. There will be two new starting linebackers in NaVorro Bowman and Ahmad Brooks and first-round pick Aldon Smith will sub in for Parys Haralson in all passing situations. At the front line, Ray McDonald will replace the departed Aubrayo Franklin, causing Isaac Sopoaga to slide inside to nose tackle. Justin Smith and Patrick Willis will be the only constants.
The new-look 49ers defense will have youth and speed to its advantage, but with that youth comes inexperience. There doesn't seem to be anyone on the roster who can deal with Seattle tight end Zach Miller (Whitner gave up 10 touchdowns in coverage as a Buffalo Bill last year) and the Houston Texans showed during their preseason drubbing of San Francisco how vulnerable the 'backers could be to play-action passes. It also remains to be seen how staunch the front seven will be against the run. Can McDonald and Bowman plug the gaps inside the way Franklin and Takeo Spikes did?
Ultimately, I'm picking the 49ers to win -- by a score of 24-16 -- because they have to, they need to, and it just feels like they want to more. If I'm wrong, well, there's a first time for everything, I suppose.
Here's what I do know: If they somehow flub this game, then what's the point? They might as well start rookie Colin Kaepernick in week two and just use the rest of the season as a learning experience for him (and if that means 1-15 and Andrew Luck, so be it). The Seahawks at home might very well be the easiest game the 49ers will have on their schedule all year.
So yeah, darn tootin' you better be excited, Mr. Smith. It's only the most important game of your career.
*************************************************************************
Other thoughts/picks for Week 1:
Philadelphia at St. Louis (+5): The Andy Reid/Marty Morhinweg combo are one of the best in the league when they have multiple weeks to game plan for somebody and Reid has a great track record against former pupils. Philadelphia's the speediest team in the league and now they play on the fast track in St. Louis? Yeah, I think I like 'em in this one. Eagles 34, Rams 17
Indianapolis at Houston (-9): The Colts have all the motivation in the world because everyone thinks they're doomed without Peyton Manning. What they don't have: Any talent besides Peyton Manning. Also, that coaching staff is about to get exposed in a bad way. Texans 27, Colts 13
Detroit at Tampa Bay (-1): I find this line kind of ridiculous, quite frankly. The Buccaneers and Josh Freeman get no respect. The guy had an incredible season last year and Detroit's secondary is awful until proven otherwise. Buccaneers 30, Lions 20 *THREE POINT SPECIAL*
Atlanta at Chicago (-3): I'm not high at all on the Falcons, mainly because I don't think any more highly of their defensive backs than Detroit's, but I'm even more down on the Bears, who might have the worst offensive line in the league. Falcons 20, Bears 13 *TWO POINT SPECIAL*
Cincinnati at Cleveland (-7): I think the Browns will improve and the Bengals will be among the worst teams in football, but Colt McCoy isn't that far removed from being a rookie himself and I'm not about to give him seven points against anyone but Kansas or Iowa State. Browns 17, Bengals 13
Buffalo at Kansas City (-6): I like Ryan Fitzpatrick more than most and I just have a hunch the Bills will have a frisky offense, even with a crummy line. The Chiefs offense looks hobbled at receiver, Matt Cassel has a broken rib and tight end Tony Moeaki is out for the year. A funky upset pick here. Bills 27, Chiefs 23
Tennessee at Jacksonville (-1): What a snoozer. Why can't both teams just started Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert? Sure, it'd still be a terrible game, but in an interesting way. Titans 27, Jaguars 10 *FOUR POINT SPECIAL*
Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-2): I picked the Ravens to make the Super Bowl. For them to get there, they'll have to win games like this. It's that simple. Ravens 23, Steelers 20
Carolina at Arizona (-7): I think the Panthers will finish with the worst record in the league if Cam Newton starts all 16 games. They can't draft a franchise QB three years in a row, can they? Cardinals 26, Panthers 9 *FIVE POINT SPECIAL*
Seattle at San Francisco (-6): See above. Six points is a lot though. I have no confidence in this pick.
Minnesota at San Diego (-9): I like the Chargers, but they typically start slow, and nine points against a team with Adrian Peterson on it is too rich for my blood. Chargers 26, Vikings 20
NY Giants at Washington (+3): The Giants have zero momentum headed into the game and their defense is so beat up at all three levels. If Washington can run the ball at all, they should spring the mild upset. Redskins 23, Giants 17
Dallas at NY Jets (-6): I'm high on the Jets, but it's a leap of faith to back them by almost a full touchdown against what could be a high-octane Dallas offense. Oh, what the hell. Jets 23, Cowboys 13
New England at Miami (+7): You know what this will be? It'll be one of those games where all the bettors will confidently pick the Patriots to win in a blow out and then get pissed as hell as New England sleepwalks through three quarters and Miami takes a three point lead late into the game. Then, just when everyone who bet on the Patriots will root for them to lose outright out of spite, of course Tom Brady will throw a touchdown pass to Wes Welker with like 58 seconds to go and they'll win by four, to piss off the bettors AND the people who hate them. That's what it will be. New England 24, Miami 20
Oakland at Denver (-3): I can see a close Broncos victory or a Raiders blowout. I'm going with the close Broncos victory. Denver 24, Oakland 19
W-L Record: 1-0
W-L Record Vs. Spread: 1-0
+/- Points (all games count as one unless specified): 1
So, take it away, Alex. How are you feeling going into the opener of what will be the seventh season of your heretofore Greek tragedy of a career?
"Excited. This is a huge game. I mean they are all huge games. This is number one. This starts it off. It’s a division game at home. Seattle coming down, a lot at stake and excited for it. I’m excited for the challenge."
Neat-o.
With all due respect, if the Seahawks pose as any kind of challenge to Smith and his mates, the 49ers will be in dire straights in 2011, just as they have been lo these past eight years. We're talking about a Seattle team whose offensive line has been in constant flux, whose best receiver last season -- Mike Williams -- was a castoff from the Detroit Lions and whose two best pass rushers -- Chris Clemons and Raheem Brock -- were little-used backups on their former teams. The Seahawks jettisoned quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, who was 34-year-old, brittle, and ten kinds of awful last season (12 TDs, 17 INT, 73.2 QB rating) and somehow got worse at the position, bringing in Tarvaris Jackson to replace him.
The Seahawks didn't do much of anything to upgrade what was the 27th-ranked defense in the league last season and by all appearances they seem to be if not flat out tanking for Andrew Luck then at least not terribly bothered by the perception of being among a handful of likely candidates for his services.
Despite all of that, it won't be easy for Smith to beat them on Sunday, because nothing has ever come easily for Smith during his 49ers career. After all, if he had played the way he's played for almost any other organization, he would've been told to hit the bricks a long time ago. Also, just about any other pro quarterback would've had the self-respect to leave for greener pastures with his dignity intact, defiantly thrusting his middle fingers at the vague direction of 4949 Centennial Blvd. as their private jet pointed him somewhere -- anywhere -- else.
No, it's never been easy for Smith, but more often than not it has been interesting in a morbid way, especially against Seattle.
In 2006 he went 2-0 against the defending conference champions, including a 24-14 win in week 15 at Seattle where he threw for two scores and scrambled for another. This was his second season, back when Norv Turner was his coordinator and Smith showed just enough promise that the fan-base was still mostly behind him.
In 2007, things turned sour. The forgettable Jim Hostler took over for Turner as offensive coordinator once Norville got hired to be the head whistle at San Diego, and though the team had a 2-1 record through three weeks, Smith's play had regressed from his sophomore season. In the fourth game against the Seahawks, he got flattened by defensive tackle Rocky Bernard and separated his right (throwing) shoulder. By all intents and purposes the injury should've knocked out Smith for a good long while, if not the whole season, but he was bullied into playing with it by former coach Mike Nolan just three weeks later, which only damaged it worse. Smith came back to play three terrible games where he hardly could throw at all before being shut down, and lost all of the 2008 year due to surgical complications.
In 2009, Smith didn't wrestle the starting job away from good friend Shaun Hill until the sixth game. In a crucial early December loss at Seattle he finally recorded his first 300-yard passing day in 36 starts and played quite well besides, but he was done in by a Frank Gore fumble and another on a punt return and poof went the 49ers division hopes.
Buoyed by Smith's play down the stretch and what looked by far like the best team in the division on paper, many expected the 49ers to make playoffs last year. The campaign was supposed to start with a laugher at Seattle, where an experienced Niners crew would teach a thing or two to Pete Carroll, who was returning to the NFL to coach the Seahawks after a long (and successful) sabbatical in the college ranks. Smith started well, but was off just enough to miss wide open receivers Joshua Morgan and Moran Norris in the end zone on a pair of early drives. The 49ers were up 6-0 20 minutes into the game when it should've been 17 or 21-0. Eventually the Seahawks warmed up, they took advantage of a rusty and unprepared Michael Crabtree and won going away 31-6.
Later in the same season, when all hope was mostly lost, Smith got a measure of revenge against the Seahawks, playing brilliantly and throwing three first-half touchdown passes en route to a 40-21 thumping of the visitors. It was the most points the 49ers franchise ever scored against Seattle, besting the efforts of any of those Joe Montana and Steve Young teams (albeit the 'Hawks were in the AFC back then and we didn't see them very often).
So here we go again, another season opener against the Seahawks, this time at the friendly confines of the 'Stick. More than any quarterback on the Sunday slate, Smith will be walking the proverbial tightrope. He absolutely needs to win this game, and hopefully look good while doing so.
He doesn't have poor coaching as an excuse anymore -- not only will Harbaugh, a former first-round pick himself be coaching him up between series, but he'll be personally relaying the play-calls into Smith's headset and giving him pointers and advice before every play. The past two head coaches Smith had either didn't even bother wearing the headphones when the offense was on the field (Nolan) or imparted useful advice such as "don't throw an interception." (Mike Singletary.)
The cast around him won't be an excuse either. Gore is back healthy and Kendall Hunter looks like a dynamic understudy. Vernon Davis remains one of the elite players at his position. Whereas last year they had to rush Crabtree onto the field and play him 65 snaps even though he missed all of preseason with a neck injury, this time the 49ers have Braylon Edwards to complement Morgan, giving them two starting-caliber receivers to play most of the snaps while Crabtree mixes in gradually and to his comfort level. It's true the offensive line has looked atrocious at times during the preseason, but generally they've been a group that plays far better at home than on the road and Seattle's pass-rush, which wasn't reminiscent of "The Fearsome Foursome" in the first place, will be further limited by Chris Clemons' wonky ankle.
It's true that there is potential for Seattle to score a few points of their own, even without Sidney Rice and road-grader Robert Gallery. The 49ers will start an entirely new secondary than the foursome that played most of the snaps in 2010. Corner Carlos Rogers and strong safety Donte Whitner were free agent additions penned into the starting lineup from day one, while free safety Madieu Williams -- another free agent -- plays in place of injured Dashon Goldson and Tarell Brown starts at the other corner spot in favor of Shawntae Spencer, who missed all of camp with a balky hamstring.
In fact, eight of the 11 49ers defenders who figure to play a lot on Sunday will be different than the ones who got the lion's share of the game reps the year before. There will be two new starting linebackers in NaVorro Bowman and Ahmad Brooks and first-round pick Aldon Smith will sub in for Parys Haralson in all passing situations. At the front line, Ray McDonald will replace the departed Aubrayo Franklin, causing Isaac Sopoaga to slide inside to nose tackle. Justin Smith and Patrick Willis will be the only constants.
The new-look 49ers defense will have youth and speed to its advantage, but with that youth comes inexperience. There doesn't seem to be anyone on the roster who can deal with Seattle tight end Zach Miller (Whitner gave up 10 touchdowns in coverage as a Buffalo Bill last year) and the Houston Texans showed during their preseason drubbing of San Francisco how vulnerable the 'backers could be to play-action passes. It also remains to be seen how staunch the front seven will be against the run. Can McDonald and Bowman plug the gaps inside the way Franklin and Takeo Spikes did?
Ultimately, I'm picking the 49ers to win -- by a score of 24-16 -- because they have to, they need to, and it just feels like they want to more. If I'm wrong, well, there's a first time for everything, I suppose.
Here's what I do know: If they somehow flub this game, then what's the point? They might as well start rookie Colin Kaepernick in week two and just use the rest of the season as a learning experience for him (and if that means 1-15 and Andrew Luck, so be it). The Seahawks at home might very well be the easiest game the 49ers will have on their schedule all year.
So yeah, darn tootin' you better be excited, Mr. Smith. It's only the most important game of your career.
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Other thoughts/picks for Week 1:
Philadelphia at St. Louis (+5): The Andy Reid/Marty Morhinweg combo are one of the best in the league when they have multiple weeks to game plan for somebody and Reid has a great track record against former pupils. Philadelphia's the speediest team in the league and now they play on the fast track in St. Louis? Yeah, I think I like 'em in this one. Eagles 34, Rams 17
Indianapolis at Houston (-9): The Colts have all the motivation in the world because everyone thinks they're doomed without Peyton Manning. What they don't have: Any talent besides Peyton Manning. Also, that coaching staff is about to get exposed in a bad way. Texans 27, Colts 13
Detroit at Tampa Bay (-1): I find this line kind of ridiculous, quite frankly. The Buccaneers and Josh Freeman get no respect. The guy had an incredible season last year and Detroit's secondary is awful until proven otherwise. Buccaneers 30, Lions 20 *THREE POINT SPECIAL*
Atlanta at Chicago (-3): I'm not high at all on the Falcons, mainly because I don't think any more highly of their defensive backs than Detroit's, but I'm even more down on the Bears, who might have the worst offensive line in the league. Falcons 20, Bears 13 *TWO POINT SPECIAL*
Cincinnati at Cleveland (-7): I think the Browns will improve and the Bengals will be among the worst teams in football, but Colt McCoy isn't that far removed from being a rookie himself and I'm not about to give him seven points against anyone but Kansas or Iowa State. Browns 17, Bengals 13
Buffalo at Kansas City (-6): I like Ryan Fitzpatrick more than most and I just have a hunch the Bills will have a frisky offense, even with a crummy line. The Chiefs offense looks hobbled at receiver, Matt Cassel has a broken rib and tight end Tony Moeaki is out for the year. A funky upset pick here. Bills 27, Chiefs 23
Tennessee at Jacksonville (-1): What a snoozer. Why can't both teams just started Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert? Sure, it'd still be a terrible game, but in an interesting way. Titans 27, Jaguars 10 *FOUR POINT SPECIAL*
Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-2): I picked the Ravens to make the Super Bowl. For them to get there, they'll have to win games like this. It's that simple. Ravens 23, Steelers 20
Carolina at Arizona (-7): I think the Panthers will finish with the worst record in the league if Cam Newton starts all 16 games. They can't draft a franchise QB three years in a row, can they? Cardinals 26, Panthers 9 *FIVE POINT SPECIAL*
Seattle at San Francisco (-6): See above. Six points is a lot though. I have no confidence in this pick.
Minnesota at San Diego (-9): I like the Chargers, but they typically start slow, and nine points against a team with Adrian Peterson on it is too rich for my blood. Chargers 26, Vikings 20
NY Giants at Washington (+3): The Giants have zero momentum headed into the game and their defense is so beat up at all three levels. If Washington can run the ball at all, they should spring the mild upset. Redskins 23, Giants 17
Dallas at NY Jets (-6): I'm high on the Jets, but it's a leap of faith to back them by almost a full touchdown against what could be a high-octane Dallas offense. Oh, what the hell. Jets 23, Cowboys 13
New England at Miami (+7): You know what this will be? It'll be one of those games where all the bettors will confidently pick the Patriots to win in a blow out and then get pissed as hell as New England sleepwalks through three quarters and Miami takes a three point lead late into the game. Then, just when everyone who bet on the Patriots will root for them to lose outright out of spite, of course Tom Brady will throw a touchdown pass to Wes Welker with like 58 seconds to go and they'll win by four, to piss off the bettors AND the people who hate them. That's what it will be. New England 24, Miami 20
Oakland at Denver (-3): I can see a close Broncos victory or a Raiders blowout. I'm going with the close Broncos victory. Denver 24, Oakland 19
W-L Record: 1-0
W-L Record Vs. Spread: 1-0
+/- Points (all games count as one unless specified): 1
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