C+ Is Good Enough, Some Game Balls and My Apparent Love of "Low-Hanging Fruit"

Here’s how good the 49ers are in 2011 – they can play a “C+” game, on the road, and still dominate the first 57 minutes and win comfortably.

Did any facet of their operation thrill you during yesterday’s 19-11 win at FedExField over the injury decimated and far too Shanahanned Washington [insert offensive racial euphemism here]?

On offense there were ill-timed penalties that turned an early 3rd-and-1 into a 3rd-and-6 and turned a second half 4th-and-1 where they appeared set to go for it into a 4th-and-6 and another David Akers field goal. There were drops by Frank Gore and Vernon Davis that ruined drives and a bad miss by Alex Smith on third down when he could’ve hit a wide open Gore on a rollout. The Niners converted 3-of-12 third downs and were 0-for-2 in the red zone. Several times plays appeared to come to Smith too late, forcing him to waste time outs and reminding us of the bad old Mike Singletary days.

Defensively they were sensational as always against the run, and after two or three productive carries by Washington rookie Roy Helu, he got nothing the rest of the way. It’s gotten to the point where you wonder why people even bother ever calling a running play against the Niners. It’s a waste of a down, akin to turning a 49ers defensive series into the CFL, where the opposing offense only has two plays and then the punt. However, run defense aside – the locals still haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown all season and haven’t had anybody run for 100 on them in 30 games – it wasn’t a dominating performance by any means.

Patrick Willis was amazing as always, but neither of his forced fumbles on Helu came on a ferocious hit or a powerful strip. Helu just wasn’t securing the ball high-and-tight (think Jeremy Maclin) and “P-Willie” did what he does because he’s a future Hall-of-Famer. Dashon Goldson had a fabulous break on a ball to snatch his second interception in as many games, but let’s face it, it’s not like John Beck has a cannon.

To me, the disappointing aspect of the defense, and maybe I’m picking nits here, was the pass rush, or lack thereof. Ahmad Brooks had the only sack the Niners had, out of 51 Beck drop-backs. Beck attempted 47 passes and scrambled for gains on four other occasions when the pocket broke down on him. Far too often, he had all day back there, especially in play-action situations. It was a credit to the secondary (and an indictment of Beck) that he only had 254 yards on his 30 completions and had to settle for so many check-downs to Helu, but that was the same Washington o-line that gave up 10 sacks to Buffalo last week. Against a better QB and better receivers – such as the ones they’ll face next Sunday – that kind of time in the pocket portends bad things.

Even on special teams, Akers was a perfect 4-for-4, including a 52-yarder; and Brad Seely’s coverage units were solid as always led by Blake Costanzo and C.J. Spillman, but Andy Lee dumped two of his five punts into the end zone and Ted Ginn had a quiet day in the return game.

What I liked about the operation on offense is that Gore wasn’t overtaxed and that Harbaugh got everyone involved, whether it was Bruce Miller or Kendall Hunter or Kyle Williams or Ginn. There were personnel packages aplenty and formations galore. Smith completed passes to eight different receivers and was as sharp (70.8%) as he’s been any game since the season-opener, when he dinked-and-dunked for 124 yards on 15-of-20 against Seattle.

My concern is that at times these guys are too clever by half. You don’t need nose tackle Isaac Sopoaga out there to convert every 3rd-and-1. You don’t always need seven linemen or multiple shifts or this guy motioning and that guy reporting as an eligible receiver. Trickery is fine and good on 1st-and-10 against somebody worthwhile. On 3rd-and-inches how about you just do a QB sneak right behind Mike Iupati’s big derriere and see what happens?

Then there are the red zone issues. At some point Harbaugh will have to give the other team’s run defense some credit. There’s a reason the 49ers haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown all season. It’s not easy to jam it in there in close quarters when there isn’t as much field to defend. It really is easier to pass it in. If it’s a simple matter of saving your “good” red zone plays for the good teams when you’re gonna need them, that’s one thing, but eventually Harbaugh will have to trust that the quarterback who’s been so careful with the ball for him all season will be that same quarterback inside the 10-yard-line. In fact, Smith’s history is that he’s been better in those situations than he is normally. Harbaugh has let Smith pass it in the red zone in games they’ve trailed, but not nearly as much as when they’re playing from ahead. Until that changes, this team will continue to lack that killer instinct.

I must stress that I don’t think Harbaugh coaching this way has any reflection on what he thinks of Smith as a passer. I’m quite aware that the national perception – and that of some local columnists – is that he’s “hiding,” “protecting,” or trying to win in spite of Smith, but that’s not how I’m reading the situation at all. I just think Harbaugh is naturally a run-first coach and conservative by nature and that trying to pound it in fits in with his whole macho persona and tutelage under Bo Schembechler. Still, by-and-large, running the ball up the gut will lead to more Akers field goals than not. I have a suspicion that the Giants will score more than 11 points, so maybe this will be the week that Harbaugh puts the game more in Smith’s hands, especially with Gore gimpy with a bum left ankle.
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Reason Why Jim Harbaugh Is Difficult To Work With – No. 618

Toward the end of his press conference, Harbaugh, perhaps annoyed that no one asked him a special teams question, decided to praise the work of C.J. Spillman for occupying numerous Washington’s blockers and Tramaine Brock for blocking in coverage. Then he said this, about Akers:

“Another four-for-four in the field goals. Now I see you nodding your heads, you like that low-hanging fruit don’t you? ‘Oh four-for-four, that’s a statistic we can mark.’”

That’s right coach. None of us understand a darn thing about football beyond the surface statistics. We’re all total laymen who don’t even watch the games.
Of course, whenever anybody asks Harbaugh an actual football question, such as “what’s the difference in responsibilities between your two safeties,” or “Can you give an example of the difference in techniques the inside linebackers have in Vic Fangio’s 3-4 defense versus Greg Manusky’s defense?” all we ever get is “I’m not going to get into the scheme.”

Eventually the way the NFL is going, independent media will be eliminated altogether and the league will just let team employees disseminate information to the public. Unfortunately, guys like Rex Ryan are the exception in this profession, not the rule. To Harbaugh’s credit, the better you are at your job, the less any of this other stuff matters. Thousands of Giants fans – including myself – cheered Barry Bonds everyday without ever thinking of he treated the beat writers the night before, and we were perfectly right to do so. Harbaugh deserves all the cheers he’s getting as well.
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Game Balls:

Ricky Jean Francois – made his second start of the season and first ever start at defensive end, in place of the injured Ray McDonald. I admit that before this season that I didn’t think much of all as Jean Francois as an NFL player. I loved him as a person, of course, as does just about anybody who interacts with him, but I thought for the most part that when he did see action on the field, that he looked like one would expect a former 7th-round pick to look. However, Jean Francois has been much better at holding the point this season and I thought he had a great game on the nose against Tampa when he starred in place of Isaac Sopoaga.

Yesterday he wasn’t quite as good, but it was obvious that Washington was targeting him and running to his direction early on. Jean Francois said he got some tips from Sopoaga and linemate Justin Smith on the sidelines and after that the running game went pffft. I give him credit for being versatile enough to not just play end on the run downs, but also to be able to take over McDonald’s role in the nickel and do his part as a pass rusher as well. It’s not easy to go from a reserve to an every down player and Jean Francois played just about every snap on defense from what I saw.

Dashon Goldson: In the offseason I openly wondered which Goldson we’ve seen is the real one – the 2009 version or the 2010 version? Well, through six games – he missed the first two with a knee injury – Goldson’s play, while not as consistently spectacular as we saw two years ago, has definitely leaned closer in that direction than last season’s, which saw him get almost no interest in the free agent market. The 49ers free safety is back to his playmaking ways, and has been involved in a turnover in four of the last five games, including yesterday’s interception. He’s always been a ferocious hitter, but if he continues to be a ball hawk, the 49ers will have to shell out the bucks to re-sign him.

Bruce Miller: The 30-yard pass he caught for a touchdown effortlessly in the second quarter gives you a good idea of why Miller, a defensive end at UCF, was drafted to be a fullback. Good coaching can teach a kid to block, if he’s smart enough and strong enough and willing to do it. Coaches can’t teach Moran Norris to run fast or catch. Running backs coach Tom Rathman pointed out that Miller’s blocking game still has more to do with angles and leverage than it does with power, but even in that aspect I’ve seen him get out to make some blocks on the second level there was no way the plodding Morris could’ve made. I think the kid is gonna have a nice career here.

David Akers: He’s now a perfect 4-of-4 on kicks of 50 yards or longer. I can’t shake the feeling that having a kicker as the offense’s most dependable weapon is also its biggest curse. When coaches trust their kickers too much they tend to not be as aggressive in their play-calls between the 25 and 40-yard-lines. I guess the same is true, in a way, of having a great defense. They both detract coaches from the goal of scoring touchdowns. We’ll see how it affects the 49ers down the road.

49ers Look To Snuff Out "West Coast Killers;" Week 5 Picks

As you've no doubt heard, one of 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh's trademark inspirational catchphrases is to ask the team after wins, "Who's got it better than us?" where afterward, the team answers, in unison, "Noooooo-body."

The origins of it come from Harbaugh's humble beginnings, where his father would use the saying to rally the family when times got tough. Harbaugh took the rhetorical to heart and adopted it as a coach to lift up his team's confidence, knowing full well that on most day's his players weren't the most talented ones on the field.

So it's a bit odd then, that these days when Harbaugh asks his charges who's got it better than them, the answer they yell back at him is damn close to the truth. According to the gang at Football Outsiders, the 49ers are currently the second-likeliest team to make the postseason, at 89.1 percent, trailing only the 4-0 defending champion Green Bay Packers. Our local gridironers have a two-game lead against division mates Arizona and Seattle and a three game advantage over the preseason NFC West favorite St. Louis Rams, who, in their decimated condition, wouldn't even be favorites in the Pac-12.

The Cardinals and Seahawks next games are both on the road, which has not been nearly as hospitable to them as it has to the 49ers this year. The Rams, meanwhile, get the reprieve of a bye week, but have to visit the aforementioned Packers the Sunday after that, meaning they're a mortal lock for 0-5 (kind of like how the 49ers were at Philly, but mortal-er).

Your Niners, on the other hand, are at home against the wholly annoying Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a squad who dominated them at the 'Stick last season to the tune of 21-0. Then, as now, San Francisco entered the game on the heels of a two-game winning streak and full of confidence. The difference is the last couple of seasons they had a coaching staff that was exposed as lazy, arrogant and under-prepared when times were good and now they have Harbaugh, who might tell his players they're not half bad after wins but spends the rest of the week tirelessly chewing over every last detail like some hyperactive badger. The next time he takes an opponent lightly will be the first, and he's got enough guys on the roster who remember all too well the pounding they took from these Bucs.

Another key difference is this time Harbaugh will have Alex Smith under center, whereas last time they had to make do with Troy Smith. The Buccaneers coaches quickly discovered that the latter was next to useless once you took the play-action pass away from him and the Troy Smith Era, which began with much promise, quickly faded into a footnote in 49ers lore.

You know what? It's aggravating to keep writing "Alex Smith" and "Troy Smith" over and over, so for the purposes of this preview, Alex will now be referred to as "Utah" and Troy will be "Ohio," kapis?

Our Utah is far more accurate -- albeit in a dink-and-dunk fashion -- than Ohio ever was and he's as red-hot (97.7 QB rating, 8th in the NFL) as he can ever possibly be. I dare suggest that it's been fairly established that if he gets a modicum of protection, that Utah can string a few completions together and move the chains.

Therein lies the rub, of course. The Bucs defense had six sacks when they visited a year ago and that was against, again, Ohio, who is a wee bit more mobile than Utah. The 49ers offensive line actually had an encouraging game against the Philadelphia Eagles in that they allowed "only" three sacks, though to be fair to them they dominated Philly's smallish front in the run game.

Harbaugh already benched the main culprit in right guard (now ex-right guard) Chilo Rachal, so now the weak link is right tackle Anthony Davis, who gave up a hat trick of sacks to Eagle end Jason Babin -- and was fined 25 large for a pair of leg-whips -- and who struggled mightily in these teams' previous engagement. His match-up will be Michael Bennett, who had a pair of sacks himself in Monday's win over Indy.

Even more foreboding is the other side of the ball, where nose tackle Isaac Sopoaga picked the wrong week to come down a staph infection. Ricky Jean Francois, who admitted he's not big enough or fast enough to be an ideal starter, will start in his place. Jean Francois was memorably rag-dolled as a rookie against the Packers and said that game woke him up and made him realize he needs to prepare as though he's going to be a starter every week and to focus on his technique to make up for his physical limitations.

Jean Francois and veteran linemates Justin Smith and Ray McDonald will have to be at their best occupying blockers, because the Bucs will be perfectly happy to stubbornly hand the ball over and over to LeGerrette Blount, whom safety Dashon Goldson aptly described as "a load." Blount is bigger than both of the 49ers inside backers, Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman, so it would probably be a good thing for him to not have a head of steam when he encounters those gentlemen. And heaven forbid if it's left to the defensive backs to bring Blount down, because he's the type of galoot that tempts corners across the land to make, as Deion Sanders cheerfully puts it, "a business decision," i.e. getting the heck of the way and preserving one's body in order to be able to cash checks in the future.

The Buccaneers are troublesome because while they're not world beaters, they're not bad at anything. Their defense has talent at all three levels, especially at corner with Ronde Barber and Aqib Talib. Their defensive line features three first round picks and a fourth guy, Da'Quan Bowers, who would've been if the medical people weren't convinced his knee ligaments are about as stable as ramen noodles.

On offense they've got Blount, a great young, athletic line in front of him, a pair of big, mobile tight ends in Kellen Winslow Jr. and rookie Luke Stocker, a top-shelf 3rd-down back in Earnest Graham and of course, QB Josh Freeman, who's the closest thing the NFC has to Ben Roethlisberger, without all the off-field unpleasantness. Freeman isn't Michael Vick, but he can take off and run it when need be, and as Goldson pointed out, he delights in lowering his shoulder into defensive backs instead of sliding like quarterbacks are taught. He also has a pesky habit of saving his best for the fourth quarter.

In short, the Buccaneers, who've dubbed themselves "The West Coast Killers" for their success at Arizona and San Francisco last season, are precisely the kind of team that Harbaugh would love to coach, right down to their backup QB Josh Johnson, who played for him at the University of San Diego and whom he's quite fond of. There are scores of reasons to pick them to win.

However, I'm going with the home side. They've got Harbaugh, they've got Utah, and a couple of talented kids in the backfield in rookies Kendall Hunter and Bruce Miller that the Bucs didn't have to face last time. I think the flight out will sap Tampa Bay just a bit, as will having a short week to prepare for the Niners because they played on Monday night. The 49ers are nobody's idea of a "scheduled loss," but the scales do tip in their favor.

If they wind up winning this one, the ushers might as well hand out "2011 NFC West Champion" T-shirts in the stands. Who'd mind that?

Nooooo-body.


Week 5 Picks...

Philadelphia at Buffalo (+3): The Eagles are a desperate team and going on the road is probably the best thing for them right now after two home disappointments have turned most of their rabid fanbase against them. The defense figures to have problems stopping Fred Jackson and their pass rush takes a hit too without Trent Cole, but I don't see that Bills secondary or so-so pass rush bothering Vick and Co. too much either. Eagles 30, Bills 20 **TWO STAR SPECIAL**

Kansas City at Indianapolis (-3): Both of these teams have played better than their records would indicate the past two weeks. Even though the Colts are on a short week, I like 'em here against a Chiefs team that got destroyed the last time they went on the road against a dome team. I think they'll have some issues in pass protection against Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Colts 20, Chiefs 13

Arizona at Minnesota (-3): For two teams that are a combined 1-7, this is an oddly compelling game. On one hand, Larry Fitzgerald always plays well when he goes back to his home state (he was a Vikings ball boy). On the other, if Donovan McNabb has any pride at all, he'll play well against Kevin Kolb, who Andy Reid decided he was worse than when he shipped off from Philly to Washington. I'll give the tiebreaker there to the team who's at home, has the better pass rush and the better running back. Vikings 27, Cardinals 20

Seattle at New York Giants (-10): The last time Seattle visited the east coast, they got positively slaughtered by a Pittsburgh team that's had a whale of a time stopping anyone else they've played. Good enough for me. Besides, this is as hot as Eli Manning and the Giants are ever gonna get. Giants 31, Seahawks 10

Tennessee at Pittsburgh (-3): Mini-upset special, just to see how real this Titans team is. Their pass rush looks fearsome, and Ben Roethlisberger is a bit gimpy with a bad foot and he's playing behind a beat up line. The Steelers have also been having trouble stopping the run and Chris Johnson is starting to heat up. Also, I want to see if Matt Hasselbeck can keep up his hot streak. Titans 23, Steelers 20

New Orleans at Carolina (+7): With Cam Newton going absolutely insane, the Panthers at home seems like the obvious pick with the points. I'm going the other way. I think Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams will have a little something for the rookie and I happen to believe the Panthers defense, who are without their two best linebackers for the season, is terrible. If Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram can't run through them, then Drew Brees will simply pass over them. Saints 41, Panthers 24

Cincinnati at Jacksonville (-3): What an ugly game. I'm kind of surprised the Jaguars are favored, to be honest with you. I'll go with the team with the better defense, the slightly more experienced QB, and the better receivers. Bengals 20, Jaguars 13 **THREE STAR SPECIAL**

Oakland at Houston (-6): Both teams can run it, but I think the Texans can stop it better. Their defense has been excellent at home and they have a multi-pronged pass rush led by Mario Williams. I don't think they're gonna miss Andre Johnson too much this week. Texans 30, Raiders 20

Tampa Bay at San Francisco (-3): I've always liked the 49ers to win this game, even before the season started and I had them being a 7-9/8-8 second-place team. I think the Niners, coming off a two-game winning streak last season, badly underestimated the Bucs (their arrogant coaching staff was prone to doing that, unfortunately) and Tampa Bay took advantage of Troy Smith defensively. I think the Niners match up pretty well against these guys, even though their run defense will take a hit without Isaac Sopoaga. I see the offensive line having a good showing at home and the defense holding on for dear life. 49ers 24, Buccaneers 20.

San Diego at Denver (+4): The Broncos allowed 49 points at Green Bay and the fans are gonna riot soon if they don't see some reason for encouragement, either from the defense or in the form of Tim Tebow under center. Kyle Orton has a good thing going with receivers Eric Decker and Brandon Lloyd and I think they're gonna keep it close if not win outright against an underachieving Chargers squad. Chargers 29, Broncos 27

New York Jets at New England (-9): The Jets offense is in shambles, but they're playing one of the worst defenses in the league. The Patriots offense is a juggernaut, but the Jets are almost impossible to pass against. I'm gonna take the wimpy way out and feel very stupid about it midway through the second quarter when New England is up three touchdowns. Patriots 27, Jets 20

Green Bay at Atlanta (+6): I don't like the Packers here, I love them. I know it's stupid, juvenile stuff, but I think Aaron Rodgers was legitimately offended that Roddy White had the gall to suggest the Falcons were the better team last year and that the playoff win was some kind of fluke. Rodgers was in an ornery enough mood after Brett Favre's comments earlier in the week that he came into a stacked team and should've won a Super Bowl earlier. Packers 41, Falcons 20 **FIVE STAR SPECIAL **

Chicago at Detroit (-6): The last time the Lions played at home, they won by 45. I don't think they'll blow out the Bears, but Matthew Stafford and the gang will get off to a quicker start than they have been and Chicago's offense couldn't run away from them anyway. Lions 27, Bears 17 **FOUR STAR SPECIAL**

Last week's W-L: 11-5
Season W-L: 43-21
Week 3 Vs. Spread: 9-7
Season Vs. Spread: 26-36-2
Week 3 +/- Points (All games count as one point unless specified): +4
Season +/- Points: -18

Winners and Losers from Sunday; Injury Updates; 49ers Statistical Rankings

So, what are we to take from the 49ers loss to the Cowboys? Are they the team that broke Tony Romo's ribs or the one that just sacked him once while getting eviscerated to the tune of 427 passing yards? Are they the offense that had Dallas totally flummoxed on third down, converting 8-of-10 first half opportunities despite being without their top two receivers; or the one that got sacked six times and shutout in third down conversions in the second half and overtime?

Most of all, are they the outfit that got out-gained 472 yards to 206 by a Dallas team that was missing Dez Bryant, Terence Newman and Orlando Scandrick and who had Romo, and his top three skill players all get banged up during the game; or the ones who were one play away from winning the game on two separate occasions? Indeed all the 49ers needed was a stop on 4th-and-5 or for for Cowboys kicker Dan Bailey, who hooked a 21-yard attempt in the first quarter, to do so again with a 48-yarder at the gun. Instead, the S.O.B hit one so down the middle that it would've been good in the Arena League.

Bill Parcells was fond of saying "You are what your record says you are," but with all due respect to that miserable bastard, there are games where a loss is a win and and games where a win is a loss. Then there are those wins that count double and losses that crush whole seasons. So with that, here are the winners and losers to take away from the 27-24 overtime loss:

Winners:

StubHub: First and foremost. They must have made a killing with their service charges and hidden fees and whatnot, accommodating all those Cowboys fans. Good lord, I was half expecting to see 10-gallon hats and bolo ties in the press box.

Jim Harbaugh: For one half darn near every play he dialed up was working. They were picking up all of Dallas blitzes, and Smith was finding guys open on out routes and hitches and converting third downs. The game plan showed, definitively, that they were indeed "saving" some things for the Cowboys that they didn't use the week before against Seattle. As we go, I would expect the offense to open up more and more and for Harbaugh to find answers to how people are playing his guys.

Alex Smith: Was he as good as his stats suggest? Well, no. But he made a number of fine throws, including perfect touchdown strikes to Kyle Williams and Delanie Walker and even his improvised rollout bomb to Frank Gore looked to be on the money before Bradie James took an interference penalty to break it up. Also, he gets credit for having to make do without his starting receivers and for not fumbling on all those shots he took in the second half.

Kyle Williams: Yeah, the kid has just one pass thrown his way, but he made a great catch in the corner of the end zone and will likely see more playing time with Braylon Edwards out and Michael Crabtree limping around. I've said it before, he probably runs the best slant route on the team, and with his quickness and run-after-catch ability, Williams is the one guy who can burn blitzes by taking a short hot route a long way. We'll have to see if it comes into play.

Bruce Miller: The first two games couldn't have gone much better for him. The guy in front of him on the depth chart, Moran Norris, has been a tire fire thus far, and now he's injured. Miller will crack the lineup this Sunday.

Ray McDonald: Not a great game, but another sack and one other hit on Romo. Two games in, he's looked every bit the $4 million defensive end. Kudos.

NaVorro Bowman: Not only has he held up well against the run, but he was better in coverage than just about any 49er on Sunday. He broke up two passes and I can't remember any that he gave up. Would've liked to seen him blitz more though.

Carlos Rogers: He was beaten two or three times, but he got his hand (or his head) on quite a few as well. Everyone will remember the overtime play to Jesse Holley, but for three-and-a-half quarters Rogers played outstanding football.

Losers:

49ers fans: You ought to be ashamed of yourselves. Yes, your stadium is an eyesore. Yes, the parking situation is an abomination. Yes, there was potential for crowd violence a la the preseason mess with Oakland. Still, your team isn't that bad and it's downright embarrassing that it turned into a Cowboys home game. The crowd was -- and this is conservative -- at least 55 percent in favor of Dallas. Perhaps it was a gigantic middle finger to ownership, who had gotten the message out in advance of the game that they wanted the stands to be "a sea of red." Maybe it was a way of telling the Yorks "We'll buy your gear and show up to your games when you get a legitimate stadium and some good players."

Or maybe everyone in California is broke and a buck is a buck.

Jim Harbaugh: Save for one nice play-call late in the third quarter where Smith found Walker matched up one-on-one by outside linebacker Anthony Spencer and took advantage, Harbaugh and Greg Roman couldn't draw up anything to bail the offense. Three times Smith rolled out or executed play-fakes where there was an unblocked rusher waiting to meet him, and any plan that calls for DeMarcus Ware to not be accounted for seems pretty stupid to me.

Too often the plays they were trying were too cute, the kind of calls designed to take advantage of over-aggressive, inexperienced front sevens. Dallas was aggressive, but they've got a lot of veterans there who know how to read tells and diagnose plays. I think a couple times the 49ers assumed that when the Cowboys had six or seven snarling guys at the line that at least two or three would drop back in coverage and the line would be able to zone up whoever rushed. Instead, Dallas just sent everyone and that left people who weren't blocked. If the Cowboys guessed correctly on who the hot route was, Smith didn't have time to look for a second option and he was toast.

Of course Harbaugh's biggest blunder was taking the field goal with 11:12 to go to push the score to 24-14 instead of accepting a 1st-and-ten at Dallas' 22-yard-line, but we covered that extensively on Monday.

Alex Smith: How much blame does he deserve for not adjusting the line to pick up some of those blitzes in the second half or for not audibling out of bad plays? It's hard to say because we don't know the extent of his responsibilities. Maybe he did change the protections and guys simply missed their assignments. What we can blame Smith for are two throws that came back-to-back in the third quarter. On the interception he thought Davis was running a button hook. Davis, however, correctly adjusted his route to an out when he saw how much room he had to the sideline. Even if he ran the hook that Smith wanted, Dallas' Alan Ball undercut it and still would've picked it off. Smith's real sin, however, was the play before, when he rolled left and badly overshot a wide open Walker, who would've gained enough yards for a first down.

Also, I think he should've lobbied Harbaugh more, not just to keep the ball
after that penalty on Akers' field goal, but even before that, when Harbaugh elected to kick on 4th-and-1 from the 37. A good quarterback fights these decisions, but it's simply not in Smith's nature to be confrontational or argumentative.

Kendall Hunter: Welcome to life in the NFL, kid. You happened to get drafted by a team where the running back has more influence in the organization than the quarterback does. Don't worry, you'll get a chance to play when Gore gets his inevitable injury in a couple weeks.

Vernon Davis: He was asked to block a bunch against Dallas on pass plays (didn't work) and doubled when he did go on routes. These things will happen without Crabtree and Edwards. Davis is already grumpy with Harbaugh, but the 49ers do have a few games coming up against teams who can't cover tight ends well.

Jonathan Goodwin: Beaten soundly by Jay Ratliff two or three times, leading to sacks on Smith, including one in overtime that torpedoed the 49ers last chance of winning the game. He also had a terrible shotgun snap that Smith did well to turn into a positive play.

Mike Iupati: Whiffed on blocks in the run game and pass game. Continues to be confused by stunts and twists. Worst of all, I don't sense any fire from him at all.

Joe Staley: Beaten for one sack by Ware but a lot of the pressure Dallas had came from the gap between him and Iupati.

Chilo Rachal: Still getting subbed out for Adam Snyder a couple series per game. That should tell you something.

Anthony Davis: The 49ers best lineman on Sunday. Which is like being their handsomest beat reporter.

Moran Norris: Somewhere in the NFL there must be a worse starting fullback, but I can't think of one of the top off my head.

Ahmad Brooks: What a ticky-tack neutral zone call that was, giving Dallas new life and turning what should've been at the worst a 14-0 halftime lead into 14-7. Still, Ahmad, dude, you're looking right at the ball. It's 3rd-and-forever. Get a full foot behind it, just to be safe.

Tarell Brown: Beaten regularly by the likes of Holley and Kevin Ogletree. Shawntae Spencer will claim the starting job any day now.

Tramaine Brock: Nice interception and all, but putting him in the slot against Miles Austin was painful to watch. He's gonna be the odd man out of the lineup.

Donte Whitner: Witten chewed him up all afternoon. Just a hopeless match-up. Bit on a play-fake in overtime (as did Rogers), which was silly because Dallas hasn't been able to run the ball since last October.

Madieu Williams: P-U.

Reggie Smith: How stiff are those hips? I thought the 49ers traded Taylor Mays away.

Does that seem unfair, to have far more losers than winners? Well, I repeat, the yardage was 472 to 206. Should we throw the 49ers a parade? The offensive line is a sieve and the defense looks very vulnerable when people stretch them out and forget about running. I was disappointed in Vic Fangio for not calling more blitzes and trying to confuse Romo a bit. Instead the Niners got dinked-and-dunked to death in fine Greg Manusky fashion. We'll see if he gets any trickier against a rookie QB this Sunday in Cincinnati's Andy Dalton. It won't do to have him be less confused out there than Smith.
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Injury notes:

Harbaugh, in a rare lapse of his usual thousand-yard stare and dismissive non-answer routine, actually revealed that Braylon Edwards "will be out a bit" and that the receiver "underwent a procedure" on his knee. Look for Edwards to be out until the seventh game, home vs. his former club, the Browns. The Niners have their bye before that and the sixth game is on the turf at Detroit, so I think it'll be a stretch to see him play in that one, though a losing streak may change the prognosis. That's what makes this Cincinnati game so important. They simply have to win it, because the schedule gets pretty hairy the three weeks after that.

Harbaugh also said that Michael Crabtree will "most likely" play on Sunday. We saw Crabtree running routes at what looked to be full speed in individual drills, but at his locker he didn't look like someone champing at the bit to go get 'em. "It's only been three days," he said. "How much different could (his foot injury) be in three days?"

Crabtree was just "limited" in practice on Wednesday, per the official report, so we'll see.

My feeling: Crabtree really wanted to play against his hometown Cowboys and was disappointed about not getting the chance. He's probably not nearly as stoked about facing the Bengals. He'll play, but...

Alex Smith apparently sustained a concussion during Sunday's game. Nice enough for them to mention it on Wednesday, on an injury report that was sent in at 4:38 p.m... Smith seemed lucid enough during his press conference and was a full participant in practice, so it must have been a minor one.

Shawntae Spencer told CSN Bay Area's Mindi Bach that he's been practicing in full for two weeks and he's completely healed from his hamstring injury. However, he said that coaches want to see how he fits into the scheme on the practice field before throwing him out there in games. He added that he understands the scheme, but has to convince them of that. The way Brown and Brock have played, I think Spencer will get his chance, and soon.

Dashon Goldson also looked spry during individual drills, and I think he's the starter this week unless he has some kind of set back. The team desperately needs him back because both Madieu Williams and Reggie Smith were liabilities on Sunday. The team missed Goldson a lot more than they missed Spencer or Crabtree or even Edwards.

Moran Norris' injury was revealed to be a fibula problem, and despite him telling Maiocco that he's "fine" the team already declared him out for Sunday. Good lord.

Are you ready for Bruce Miller?
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49ers Statistical Rankings, presented without comment.

49ers Offensive Rankings:

Rushing: 79.5 YPG (26th); Yards Per Carry: 2.8 (29th);
Rushing Touchdowns: 2 (T-6th);

Passing: 128.0 YPG (29th); Completion Percentage (T-4th);
Yards Per Attempt: 6.9 (T-21st);

Passing Touchdowns: 2 (T-23rd); Interceptions: 1 (T-5th);
Sacks: 6 (T-22nd);

QB Rating: 95.2 (11th); 3rd Down Percentage: 32.1 (23rd);

Yards Per Game: 207.5 (31st); Scoring: 28.5 (9th)

49ers Defensive Rankings:

Rushing: 54.5 YPG (1st); Yards Per Carry: 2.5 (1st);
Rushing Touchdowns: 0 (T-1st)

Passing: 291.0 YPG (25th); Completion Percentage: 58.8 (12th);
Yards Per Attempt: 7.9 (20th);

Passing Touchdowns: 5 (30th); Interceptions: 3 (T-4th);
Sacks: 6 (T-6th);

Fumbles Forced: 4 (T-2nd); Fumbles Recovered: 2 (T-7th);

3rd Down Percentage: 37.9 (15th); Yards Per Game: 345.5 (T-17th); Scoring: 22.0 (T-12th)

49ers Special Teams Rankings:

Kickoff Return: 43.8 Avg (1st); Kickoff Return Allowed: 23.3 Avg (15th);

Punt Return: 15.2 Avg (5th); Punt Return Allowed: 9.3 Avg (T-17th);

Field Goal Percentage: 100.0 (T-1st); Net Punt Average: 51.4 Yards (2nd)

Giveaway/Takeaway:

Giveaways: 1 (T-2nd); Takeaways: 5 (T-4th); Plus/Minus: +4 (T-3rd)

49ers-Cowboys Preview, Week 2 Picks

If you need any affirmation of where our plucky San Francisco 49ers stand in the NFL's pecking order, consider the fact that last Sunday night, on the league-owned hour long highlight extravaganza, the visual evidence of their 33-17 triumph over the Seattle Seahawks consisted of a 15 second clip that picked up the action in the fourth quarter with the home side up 19-10. We got the 55-yard touchdown pass from Tarvaris Jackson to Doug Baldwin, where the former Stanford receiver wrong-footed nickel safety Reggie Smith, and then the ensuing 102-yard kick return by Ted Ginn which pushed the margin to nine once more.

Alex Smith's bootleg touchdown in the first half where he dove over two defenders? Not worthy. A montage of first half sacks the defensive line delivered to Jackson? Not relevant. Ginn's punt return touchdown to punctuate the game? Not necessary.

The next day, when asked how he celebrated his first NFL win as the head whistle, Jim Harbaugh, a fellow who gives off the strong impression that he wouldn't know how to celebrate anything if his life depended on it, remarked that he went home and watched TV.

"Just went home and watched the Cowboys game," he said. "Kind of flipped through the channels, the NFL network, and highlight express, and the ESPN blitz. Never caught one highlight of the 49ers on any of those, so I just watched the Cowboys game."

Did that strike you as peculiar, coach?

"No, we know it. It just kind of documents what you know. What the perception is of our team around the league and around the country. Some people can say that’s not fair, it isn’t right, but do something about it. And that’s our mindset. That’s our approach."

I suppose "Win one for the TV producer's attention" doesn't quite have the same ring to it as "Win one for the gipper," but athletes have been inspired by less.

For the record, the only game that got as such short shrift on the highlight shows as 49ers-Seahawks was Jaguars-Titans. What do these two have in common, kids? Divisional rivals in divisions the country doesn't care about, with stopgap quarterbacks squaring off. Should Alex Smith vs. Tarvaris Jackson have inspired that much interest than Luke McCown vs. Matt Hasselbeck? Until further notice, the answer is no.

However, team interest doesn't always align perfectly with records and expectations. The Lakers still got plenty of national games when they were reduced to Kobe Bryant and 11 guys named "Smush" and so did Michael Vick's Falcons teams even though he never figured out what a wide receiver was until he met Andy Reid at Philadelphia. People like who they like and the folks at ESPN decided long ago it's easier to conjure up "news" about those they deem interesting rather than waste precious resources reporting the news as it happens about any Tom, Dick or Harry. Besides, they have all those big money partnerships to protect, so why upset people by sifting through their dirty laundry?

So forget the TV stuff and let's get to the heart of what determines who's top dog in the NFL: The almighty point spread.

The 1-0 49ers, at the friendly confines of Candlestick Park, are field goal dogs to an 0-1 team that is almost identical on paper to the one that finished 6-10 last season. "Poppycock," you say. "That stat is biased. Tony Romo was hurt last season and the Cowboys are entirely different without him."

Well, who am I to argue that? In fact, not only was Dallas markedly different sans Romo, but they were better. They went 1-5 with their marque idol under center and 5-5 with Jon "Jon Kitna" Kitna, a backup so milquetoast that my nickname for him is his name. Romo certainly has the pretty numbers and the heart-thumping magnetism, with charisma that's practically off the scale, but for whatever reason he hasn't won much of late. Combine the opening weekend capitulation at the Jets and 2009's season-ending playoff massacre at the hands of Brett Favre and the Vikings and Romo is a sweet 1-7 in his last eight starts of note.

That's the guy, the one who throws ill-timed picks and fumbles when it's the least convenient time to do so, who's favored by a field goal over your Niners.

The hell of it is, no one is the least bit surprised. The point is not to put down the 49ers specifically, but rather that anybody in the NFC BEast would be favored against anybody from the West, at least if you listen to corner Carlos Rogers, who spent the first six seasons of his career at Washington.

"I was telling the guys, when I played the NFC East, that's the toughest (division)," said Rogers. "You look at the NFC West and you always looked at those guys as soft. You looked at those games as games you should win. I know that's (the Cowboys') mindset coming in here."

Indeed, you'd be hard-pressed to find anybody on the 49ers schedule who don't view them as a "W" with minimal effort, and like Harbaugh said, it's up to them to change that perception.

To do that, they'll have to join the 21st century and start flinging the rock. Their linemen know it, their receivers know it and even their quarterback, who makes a point of defending the "balanced" offensive philosophy at all times like a dutiful soldier, knows it.

"In the past game we were only throwing for a 124 yards," Smith said. "Obviously I’d like to build upon that. So we were efficient as far as completion percentage, but I’d really like to get a little more production."

Yes, you read that correctly. Alex Smith said he'd like to get little more production. He says it in a way like it's a favor he has to ask of his coaches, like a treat he's earned for cleaning his room and eating all his veggies. It doesn't exactly sound like a fellow who's gonna challenge Harbaugh the next time he hears a play-call for a draw to Frank Gore on 3rd-and-8.

That's been the Catch-22 with Smith throughout his career. He hasn't been given the same opportunities from a play-calling standpoint that other quarterbacks are regularly afforded, such as regularly getting to pass on 1st-and-10 or 3rd-and-2, and consequently the 49ers have never scored anywhere close to consistently enough with him under center to merit his coaches treating him the way they Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady gets treated. It's like a chicken and egg argument except the chicken is diseased and the egg is rotten.

New 49ers receiver Braylon Edwards insisted the other day that the team could win a shootout type of game, saying "I know we have what it takes to be in one of them. We have the offensive line, we have the receivers, the running back and the play-calling ability from the coaches."

Notice what critical ingredient he left out of the equation.

The team got away with having an extend preseason last week against Seattle, showing essentially nothing against the Seahawks and doing the bare minimum schematically on offense. If using a sixth offensive lineman is the creative zenith of your game plan, you either A) think absolutely nothing of your opponent B) think even less than that about your quarterback C) are scared to death your offensive line will get innocent spectators hurt, never mind the QB or D) all of the above.

Somewhere, deep inside his 14 layers of black sweaters, Harbaugh knew he wasn't being truthful by defending those runs up the gut by Gore as aggressive, attacking plays. I think he has a pretty good idea he'll have to pass the ball on Sunday and hope for the best, the same as he did with Tavita Pritchard at Stanford.

It'll be up to Smith to prove everyone wrong, and even if he does all the credit will go to his coach, or the blame to Romo, or it will be dismissed as a fluke. Reputations are hard to shake in this league and perception is everything, as a former 49ers quarterback of note is fond of saying.

What we do know is if Smith is ever gonna have a chance to get the home crowd on his side, Sunday's the day. The Cowboys will be without Terence Newman, whose groin is good enough to play on, but the team brass has decided the 49ers can be beaten without his services. They'll miss nickel corner Orlando Scandrick as well, while other starter Mike Jenkins will be limited by a wonky shoulder. Anthony Spencer, their second best pass rusher, also has a bad shoulder. In theory, as long as the 49ers double-team DeMarcus Ware on every play, they should tear these guys up. In theory, Smith was supposed to be a franchise savior as a number one pick. Things don't always work out as planned.

On the other side of the ball, the 49ers defense will get a second straight game against a young, inexperienced offensive line, and safety Donte Whitner will find that Jason Witten is a rich man's version of Zach Miller, with the difference between the two tight ends having more to do with their respective quarterbacks than anything else. I would figure Witten will see some bracket coverage, with Patrick Willis or NaVorro Bowman chipping in underneath. Rogers will draw a lot of one-on-one with Miles Austin, especially in the slot, and if Dez Bryant plays -- he's missed practice all week with a thigh contusion -- he's going to be impaired.

The Cowboys are in town, bruised and battered. They're expecting to win because they're them and the Niners are the Niners. Either way the highlight clip this time out will be a lot longer than 15 seconds and Michael Irvin and Deion Sanders will be doing plenty of chirping. We'll have to see if Harbaugh will be in the mood to watch it.
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Michael Crabtree looked more active in Thursday's individual drills on Thursday than he did on Wednesday, and was running short routes at 80 percent speed I'd say. He was still listed as "limited" in the official practice report, which is usually code for "did not participate in team drills."

Crabtree will be dying to play against his hometown Cowboys so he'll probably force the issue to at least be in the lineup at the beginning, but if he has any kind of setback in the game, I expect this time for the team to have second-year man Kyle Williams dressed and available. And really, with all the smoke everyone's blowing up Ted Ginn's rear end about how much he's improved as a receiver, you'd think they could play him a few snaps from scrimmage.

Dashon Goldson was mostly a spectator from what I saw and he too was listed as limited in the injury report. My guess is he'll be out for the second straight game and the team will once again depend on the combination of Madieu Williams and Reggie Smith. Hopefully Smith shook off some rust last week and will be more ready to contribute, but I have some bad vibes about him against Dallas' receiving corps. He's shown in the past to be susceptible to play-action and he's not the soundest tackler back there either.

Whether Goldson's absence is costly or not depends on if he'll be the 2009 Goldson when he returns or last year's version. If 2010 Dashon is the real one, then that guy can spend all year on the inactive list as far as I'm concerned. 2009 Goldson on the other hand, I'm quite fond of. The Cowboys have a guy like that too in Mike Jenkins. Great in '09, a disaster last year. Try figuring this game out.

Shawntae Spencer, meanwhile, has been a full participant in practice, but he's still behind both Tarell Brown and Tramaine Brock and doesn't figure to see the field from scrimmage. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio explained that Spencer, who missed practically all of training camp, is still not in football shape yet and can only be used in emergency situations. He may challenge for his old spot in the coming weeks.
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Carlos Rogers offered an interesting scouting report on Tony Romo based on his six head-to-head encounters with him:

"He's a quarterback that if you give him time, let him sit back and don't put pressure on him, he can be a Hall-of-Fame quarterback. If you put pressure on him
and you give him different looks, you've got a chance. And that's one of the main things we always knew. You've got to show him different looks. We always knew his outlet, when he'd get in trouble, he's going to (tight end Jason) Witten. So from my experience that's what you've got to do against him. Show him different looks and mix up your coverages. Send pressure at him because he can sit back there and pick you apart."

What about his scrambling, does that worry you?

"You can't look at Romo and think 'OK, I'm going to give him three or four seconds and the ball should be out.' He can do that little pump fake, make guys jump, scramble and throw. He's not a big runner, but if he's got to, he will. He can extend plays."

Is his greatest asset, his improvisational skill, also his biggest weakness?

"Our thing we always said about him was that he would give us two chances. That was one thing that we always said every year. Romo will give you two chances. The games that we won, when he gave us those chances, we took advantage of them. Some games we didn't take advantage, and we didn't get to him in the backfield, he just picked us apart."

Have I mentioned that I love Carlos Rogers? He's definitely our early favorite for the Niver award.
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Other thoughts/picks for Week 2:

Cleveland at Indianapolis (+3): It all depends on who gets that 10 point lead. The Colts have a smallish front line that the Browns should be able to run on, but those two great edge rushers in Dwight Freeney and Rasheen Mathis to protect any leads they'd get. A shaky pick for the home team. Colts 20, Browns 13.

Kansas City at Detroit (-9): I'm more of a believer in Detroit than I was last week, but nine points is an awful lot. Jamaal Charles should be able to run in that dome enough to keep them in the game. Lions 27, Chiefs 23.

Oakland at Buffalo (-4): The Bills with Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams should be able to stop the Raiders running game cold and Silver & Black get no favors from Mr. Schedulemaker, having to fly all the way to Buffalo for an early 10 a.m. game after having had a late Monday night start the week before. Bills 27, Raiders 13. **FOUR POINT SPECIAL**

Baltimore at Tennessee (+7): Seven point underdogs at home seems like a lot of points to lay, but I can't think of a single argument against Baltimore except they'll be too full of themselves after trouncing Pittsburgh. Ravens 23, Titans 10. **TWO POINT SPECIAL**

Tampa Bay at Minnesota (-3): The biggest game of the morning slate. The loser is in a world of hurt against a deep NFC field with so many Wild Card candidates. I gotta go the team with the best player, which is Adrian Peterson, so I'm taking the Vikes at home with no confidence whatsoever. Vikings 24, Buccaneers 20.

Chicago at New Orleans (-7): Many members of the Bears team will travel with Brian Urlacher to his mother's funeral, which is highly unusual. It speaks to how deeply he's entrenched as the talisman of that organization, more so than anyone since Walter Payton. It also signals the strong bond he has with his teammates, who could hardly function in practice without his presence. Gotta go with the upset pick here against the team I picked to win the Super Bowl, based purely on emotion. I think the Bears will absolutely play their guts out for their middle linebacker, as sappy as that sounds. Bears 24, Saints 23.

Jacksonville at NY Jets (-9): Nine points? Really? What on Earth did the Jets show on Sunday nine to prove they can beat anyone by nine? Rex Ryan's guys will typically sleepwalk through the first half and the Jaguars will find a way to keep this annoyingly close. Jets 19, Jaguars 16.

Seattle at Pittsburgh (-15): Not to go all Simmons on you, but this is an absolutely ridiculous line. I was off by 8 points when I guessed what it would be in the morning. I know the Steelers defense will be angry, but they're not gonna get younger overnight. Besides, that referee is gonna give Seattle a couple of makeup calls methinks. Steelers 23, Seahawks 16.

Arizona at Washington (-4): It's not the venue that makes this a rough game for the Cardinals but rather that they get the 'Skins in the first half of the year, when they're always feisty, than in December, when they're in vacation mode. Redskins 27, Cardinals 17.

Green Bay at Carolina (+11): Cam Newton passed for 422 yards last week and is making his home debut. You think that would be enough for me to happily take the points. Like a fool, I'm gonna lay them, and I probably would if the line was 14. Packers 40, Panthers 13. **FIVE POINT SPECIAL**

Dallas at San Francisco (+3): No, I don't think Alex Smith will stink it up, but I'm not ready to declare the 49ers a top-10 defense yet either. Either way, I'm curious to see what Harbaugh and his coaches are all about, at last. Cowboys 27, 49ers 20.

Cincinnati at Denver (-4): Andy Dalton is the only compelling reason to watch this game. Everyone likes the Bengals in this one because they can kinda sorta run and pass while the Broncos can't run a lick. I don't know. It seems too easy. Denver 31, Cincinnati 20.

Houston at Miami (+3): Still don't think Arian Foster will be ready to play and these are the kind of games the Texans always blow. If Miami can't pull this out, I'm done with 'em for the year. Miami 23, Houston 20.

San Diego at New England (-7): What the heck, a second upset pick. The Pats are overdue to lose a home game in the regular season and call me crazy, I'll take the team with the better defense. Who on New England can cover Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson or Malcolm Floyd? San Diego 30, New England 27.

Philadelphia at Atlanta (+3): First off, I'll take Vick and the Eagles in virtually any game on turf, that's a given. But when you factor in the glaring difference between the two secondaries and the fact that it will be akin to a home game for Philly because of their quarterback, how can I not take them? Also, I have to say for the record, and this is coming from an Eagles guy, that I find the whole racial dynamic of this game, where a large segment of the crowd will be rooting against their own team, very disappointing and a bit creepy. It's 2011 and we should be beyond this stuff.

That Martin Luther King Jr. message about judging a man not by the color of his skin but the content of his character cuts both ways. Vick was a good player for the Falcons, but a highly overrated one. What did he ever win for them? Shouldn't their fans revile him, if not for his crimes, than at least for being dumb enough to piss away his career there instead of worshiping him? Vick even admitted he wasn't a professional as a Falcon and didn't work nearly hard enough, yet he's still loved down there. I just don't get it. Eagles 37, Falcons 24. **THREE POINT SPECIAL**

St. Louis at NY Giants (-6): You get the feeling this game will either be a real dog or wildly entertaining, with nothing in between. The Rams are beat up on offense, while the Giants defense is decimated. If the Rams drop it, they can be staring a 1-6 start in the face. A third upset pick here, because Steve Spagnuolo knows the Giants personnel better than the other way around. Rams 20, Giants 17.

Week 1 Record: 11-5
Vs. Spread: 8-7-1
+/- Points (All games count as one unless otherwise specified): -5

49ers notes: Crabtree sits, Peelle signs, Jones resurfaces on the practice squad and Edwards sues

Obviously we weren't allowed to watch practice, but during warmups several eagle-eyed reporters saw Michael Crabtree run one three-quarters speed route in warmups and then quickly take off his helmet and chat up trainer Jeff Ferguson. That can't be an encouraging sign. Crabtree only made it through one half on Sunday and said afterward that he thought he'd re-broken his foot. He wasn't walking with a limp when he was spotted earlier in the day, but walking and running are two different things. Expect this to be an ongoing issue for a while longer.

Coach Jim Harbaugh said there's a possibility that Kyle Williams will be up for this game, as insurance for Crabtree in case he can't make it all the way through if nothing else. I'm guessing Crabtree really wants to play in the game because it's A) the regular season and B) against his hometown Cowboys, but if he's limited at all, the team may be better off just going with Williams, who had a fabulous camp and is raring to go. At this point, how could he be a drop off at all from a hobbled Crabtree who's barely practiced at all in this offense?

Safety Dashon Goldson was in uniform and pads during practice, but not really participating in individual drills. It remains to be seen how active he'll be, but it's dangerous to play the Cowboys with a gimpy safety. Reggie Smith's first game back there as the nickel guy couldn't have been too encouraging either, so it's not an ideal situation.
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Peelle in, Jones out, Practice Squad RB Shuffle

The 49ers signed tight end Justin Peelle, 32, a 6-4, 255 pound blocking specialist who’s a veteran of nine seasons with the San Diego Chargers, Miami Dolphins and Atlanta Falcons. The 49ers played with just two tight ends on the roster the first week in Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker, so they had to use a sixth offensive lineman in a lot of short-yardage situations that wound up being unsuccessful. Maybe with Peelle defenses will respect the run-pass option more and give Frank Gore a couple more inches of room to run. Or perhaps the coaching staff will be more willing to use the play-action in those formations and actually throw the ball. Peelle has 122 career receptions for 984 yards and 12 touchdowns and caught 10 balls for 96 yards and as score last year for Atlanta.

"Hopefully I'll get fed every once in a while, but normally my role has been to block the past couple years," said Peelle.

To make room for Peelle on the 53-man roster, the team waived rookie safety Colin Jones, their 6th round pick from TCU. As expected, he cleared waivers and is now on the practice squad.

The team also signed running back Ian Johnson, 25, to their practice squad. Johnson, who is 5-11 and 212 pounds, was signed as an undrafted free agent out of Boise State in 2009 by Minnesota and has spent time with the Arizona Cardinals, Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers organizations too, but has never been activated for the regular season. He had 36 carries for 130 yards this preseason for the Lions. Johnson is famous, of course, for proposing to a cheerleader (who was his longtime girlfriend) on national television immediately after scoring the game-winning two-point conversion in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl. He helped Boise State upset mighty Oklahoma by successfully running in a “Statue of Liberty” play. With the arrival of Johnson, running back Xavier Omon was released from the practice squad -- and quickly signed to Cleveland's.
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Vernon Davis spoke of the looking forward to the challenge of going against Dallas' elite pass-rusher DeMarcus Ware, but Joe Staley had already thrown cold water on the notion earlier during his interview. Staley explained that Ware usually lines up on the opposite side from the tight end. In the frequent instances where the 49ers will go with two tight ends, you figure Ware will choose to go against Delanie Walker, who's a far worse blocker than Davis. Also, it's a good bet that Ware, who's never been much of a coverage guy to begin with, will want no part of Davis in that regard. The Cowboys will probably use a nickel corner or a safety on him, and perhaps some bracket coverage with an inside 'backer.
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Braylon Edwards filed a $14 million dollar lawsuit against a Michigan restaurant and three of its employees for slander, alleging that a team rescinded on a contract offer they put on the table with $15 million in guarantees because of the accusation the employees made of his direct involvement in an Aug. 1 incident between his entourage and some busboys. Edwards was already cleared of any wrongdoing after a police investigation. In the suit, Edwards claims that he had to settle for just a $1 million guaranteed contract with the 49ers because of these false accusations.

I wonder if he'll sue Alex Smith, Jim Harbaugh, Greg Roman and the offensive line for hurting his 2012 earning potential...

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A look at the 49ers statistical rankings after Week 1.

49ers Offensive Rankings:

Rushing: 85.0 YPG (18th); Passing: 124.0 YPG (29th); Total: 209.0 YPG (31st); Points: 33.0 (7th).

Comment: One of these things is not like the other. Thanks, Ted Ginn!

49ers Defensive Rankings:

Rushing: 64.0 YPG (T-5th); Passing 155.0 YPG (T-5th); Total: 219.0 YPG (4th); Points: 17.0 (T-9th).

Comment: Patrick Willis always talks about wanting to be a top-10 defense, a top-5 defense. For once, 49ers come out and play like one. The Cowboys game will give them a much stiffer test, however.

49ers Special Teams Rankings:

Kickoff Return: 44.0 Avg (4th); Kickoff Return Allowed: 22.8 Avg (18th); Punt Return: 18.4 Avg (5th); Punt Return Allowed: 9.0 Avg (18th); Field Goal Percentage: 100.0 (T-1st); Net Punt Average: 54.2 Yards (1st).

It's tempting to say that new special teams coordinator Brad Seely has made difference right away, but he made his mark in the past for his kick coverage units, not the return game. I think Ginn just had a really good day and took advantage of a couple of mistakes from Seattle's Earl Thomas and Walter Thurmond, who were too overaggressive. Seely certainly has fabulous kickers to work with in Andy Lee and David Akers, so that part of the equation is easy to figure.

Giveaway/Takeaway:

Giveaways: 0 (T-1st); Takeaways: 3 (T-2nd); Plus/Minus: 3 (2nd).

Comment: Turnovers aren't always as relevant as people make them out to be. The 49ers got one on a Hail Mary at the end of the half and another on a fumble when the score was already 33-17 and there was a minute left on the clock. The most important number in this case was they didn't commit any.

Crabtree talks, Goldson sits, Baalke stays busy and more speculating about the inactives.

After a six week wait, we finally got to talk to the one and only Michael Crabtree today. Six-and-a-half minutes later I was wondering to myself what all the fuss was about.

Okay, Crabtree wasn't that bad, he gave us a couple of useful tidbits such as he had surgery to fix his broken left foot "sometime in July" and that he'll be wearing custom-made molded Michael Jordan brand cleats, but on the whole it's pretty obvious that talking to the media is not something he enjoys or feels comfortable doing. I don't think he's a bad guy or a grouch or anything like that. He's just a really shy dude.

A reporter asked him if practicing again for the first time was like riding a bike and Crabtree responded, "It was like playing football."

Oh.

Shortly after Crabtree complained about the heat of the camera light on him, but it was one of those LED lights that gives off no heat.

At one point Crabtree seemed almost offended when asked which receiving positions he feels comfortable playing in the offense, saying "All of them. I'm a wide receiver and that consists of playing all three positions."

However, another time he admitted that he may not be as much of an expert on the playbook as some of his coaches have been suggesting. "I've got the basics down, but it's different when you go out there," Crabtree said.

He's an odd duck, that Crabtree, but the good news for 49ers fans is that he looked full speed and hitch free running routes during individual drills in practice. How much playing time he gets on Sunday is up in the air, but the good news is that while he'd certainly be an asset in the coming weeks, the team doesn't need him to beat Seattle.

You may recall last season Crabtree missed most of camp and all of preseason with a neck injury. The 49ers still rushed him out there for the first regular season game at Seattle because A) Mike Singletary kowtowed to Crabtree from day one and B) they really didn't have anybody else to start. Crabtree was rusty as hell in the game, had a couple of balls clank off his hands (one for a costly interception) and the 49ers got routed. In the second half ex-radio color man Gary Plummer was hollering for Crabtree to be benched, he was playing so poorly, and so clearly confused about his assignments.

Now, with Braylon Edwards on board, along with Joshua Morgan and even Ted Ginn, there isn't as much pressure for Crabtree to produce right away. He can be mixed into the game and play in a few packages he's comfortable with instead of being relied on for 65 snaps off the bat. It's good for him, good for the team and good for Alex Smith, who doesn't have to force passes his way.
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On the other side of the injury ledger is Dashon Goldson. He pretty much declared himself out for Sunday's game, saying his left knee still has "irritation."

Goldson didn't practice on Sunday and worked out with trainers on the side field.

Reggie Smith, who's recovering from his own knee injury was on the scout team, impersonating Seahawks safety Earl Thomas, so that's a good bet that he's not gonna start since guys on the scout team rarely do.

That leaves it to Madieu Williams to start, which means the 49ers will have an entirely different starting secondary than they did last season. Williams and Donte Whitner are both free agent pickups, as is left corner Carlos Rogers; and the right corner is expected to be Tarell Brown, who was a reserve last year behind starters Shawntae Spencer and Nate Clements. Clements is a Cincinnati Bengal these days and Spencer, who just started practicing yesterday himself (he reported no setbacks from his balky hamstring) probably needs to earn the confidence and faith of his coaching staff before he regains his starting job -- or he needs to wait for Brown simply play poorly enough to give it to him.

Count Ray McDonald, who was a reserve last year, linebackers Ahmad Brooks and NaVorro Bowman (ditto) and rookie edge-rusher Aldon Smith, and the 49ers defense could have as many eight different guys playing the majority of the snaps on Sunday than the ones who started in 2010. That's massive turnover.

Here's the thing though: The defense needed to be turned over. They needed to get younger and faster. The national reputation about the 49ers defense was they were good these past couple seasons, or at least above-average, but while that might have been the case in 2009, in large part to all the turnovers they got at home, they were pretty bad last year, especially as a pass defense. Look at the numbers if you don't believe me, the 49ers ranked in the bottom quadrant of the league in just about every pass defense category except interceptions.

I think the 49ers have upgraded their talent on defense considerably, especially at linebacker, but it will take a while for all these guys to play cohesively. Having defensive coordinator Vic Fangio at coordinator will help a lot, and he'll be able to patch over their flaws better than Greg Manusky did. Fangio also favors blitzing more than his predecessor did, so we're liable to see more big plays both for and against the defense than the Chinese water torture we'd grown so accustomed to with the past regime.

One thing that I found interesting is that, according to Williams, no coaches have come up to him to pick his brain about Seahawks QB Tarvaris Jackson or offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell. Williams practiced against those guys every day for three years at Minnesota, and yet no one is coming to him for tips? I find that odd.

"We've got a good coaching staff here, they don't need my help," said Williams.

He's another guy who hasn't exactly been engaging with us or snapping off witty one-liners. My theory is he's a bit chagrined about having joined the team with the idea that he'd only have to beat out Reggie Smith for a starting spot only to discover soon after he came on that Goldson was re-signed and immediately promoted to starter again.

Now he'll get a chance to show his stuff. Maybe if he has a big game, picks off a wayward Jackson pass or two, the coaching staff might feel Goldson's knee is still too irritated...
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The 49ers didn't make any roster moves the past couple days, but it hasn't been for lack of trying.

They made waiver claims on two guys the New England Patriots cut: CB Darius Butler and TE Lee Smith. Carolina wound up getting Butler and Smith went to Buffalo, since both those teams had worse record than the 49ers last year.

It's well known the 49ers are in the market for a third tight end who's a blocking specialist, and I suppose Smith fits the bill there (no pun intended), but the Butler claim is the more interesting one to me. Who would they have dropped if they got him? Tramaine Brock? Spencer? I've gotten the sense that staff isn't that high on Spencer and that the only reason he's still here is because literally nobody else has done well enough to justify cutting him. Brown has been so-so as a starter in preseason, but I fully expect the Seahawks to target him on Sunday (as well as Whitner and the linebackers with passes to tight end Zach Miller and their running backs), while Brock has been worse than so-so.

I'm a bit surprised the 49ers didn't try trading for Eagles slot corner Joselio Hanson, who was a 49er once upon a time. Philadelphia is so deep there that Hanson was on the market, but general manager Trent Baalke is loathe to deal away draft picks.

Obviously we'll all pay attention to how Alex Smith and the linemen play, but I'm very curious how corners will perform this week and the next against Dallas. I have a feeling that spot on the defense may see some shuffling. Heck, 3rd round pick Chris Culliver might see some action by the end of the year.

Also, the 49ers worked out former Rams receiver Donnie Avery. He's a talented kid, but he tore his ACL in preseason last year and apparently didn't recover sufficiently enough for coach Steve Spagnuolo's liking, as the team cut him at the end of preseason.

It's true the 49ers could use another deep threat at receiver, and I guess it doesn't hurt to kick Avery's tires, but what does it say about him when St. Louis -- a club that's hardly got all-world guys in their receiving corps by the way -- cuts the guy?

If their coaches felt that Avery was worse than Brandon Gibson and Danny Amendola, then you probably won't help the 49ers.
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An updated guess on who will be the 46 guys active for Sunday's game:

QB (2) Smith and Colin Kaepernick, with Scott Tolzien still trying to learn the playbook.
RB (3) Offensive coordinator Greg Ramon said Frank Gore, Kendell Hunter and Anthony Dixon will all play.
FB (2) Moran Norris starts, Bruce Miller sees time at tight end and on special teams.
WR (5) I think everybody is up for this one. Kyle Williams dresses in case Crabtree has some kind of setback during the game.
TE (2) Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker are the only two they've got.
OL (7) Rookies Daniel Kilgore and Mike Person will have a great view all season long.
DL (5) I have Demarcus Dobbs joining Ricky Jean Francois as the reserves, Will Tukuafu and Ian Williams scratched. Just a guess here.
LB (7) I don't think new guy Tavares Gooden will be up to speed in time for Sunday.
CB (5) You need to keep Brock/Culliver in there to protect Spencer.
S (5) Goldson's out and everyone else would dress anyway.
ST (3) David Akers, Andy Lee and Brian Jennings as per usual.

Inactives: Tolzien, Kilgore, Person, I. Williams, Tukuafu, Gooden, Goldson.

If I'm wrong about anyone, it's Gooden, but good luck figuring out who he comes in for. They'd be taking a chance at corner or receiver with only four guys.

Alright time drive to the Cohn abode. Hope the game will be a high scoring affair. Call it 31-24, Pack.

More Harbaugh Paranoia, A Healthy Crabtree, A Hurt Spencer, and NFL Predictions

The first regular season Wednesday has come and gone, and the 49ers are barreling toward their opener against Seattle full steam ahead, with coach Jim Harbaugh at his tightly-wound, paranoid best up at the podium.

When asked why the team has three receivers listed for two starting spots atop the depth chart, with Joshua Morgan at one spot and both Ted Ginn and Braylon Edwards sharing the marquee at the other, Harbaugh's explanation was "We feel that both Ted Ginn and Braylon Edwards are starting caliber, so we list them that way. It's pretty self-explanatory."

Oh.

Does that mean when Michael Crabtree comes back fully healthy and he takes over the starting spot, that Morgan will no longer be "starting caliber?"

Should we assume since there aren't any guys sharing the top spot at other positions that none of them are starting caliber? Guys like Aldon Smith, Shawntae Spencer, Madieu Williams, Adam Snyder... none of them are starting caliber? Why would a coach repeatedly say he's perfectly comfortable about the prospect of starting rookie quarterback Colin Kaepernick if he's not starting caliber?

It's just so pointlessly silly. He's dealing with grown men in his locker room and grown men (and women) in the media. Do we really have to play these stupid games over every trivial thing? Is it really gonna hurt Ted Ginn's feelings if he's not listed as a starter? Will it affect the Seahawks preparation one iota? Just have a straightforward depth chart already. There's no rule saying you can't change it later.
Otherwise, you wind up needlessly painting yourself into corners trying to explain things without trying to come off as dishonest or hypocritical.

Then there was that question near the end of the press conference, when Harbaugh was asked to compare Todd Mortensen, who struggled mightily at BYU before flourishing under Harbaugh at the University at San Diego, with Alex Smith, whose career with the 49ers we're well familiar with. Obviously, the reporter was working on a positive story angle, talking about one quarterback who overcame struggles and adversity and how Smith might very well be another. Anyone could understand -- especially given that it was a beat guy who asked the question and not some agenda-driven columnist -- that it was an opening to wax some optimistic poetry on Smith's future.

Of course, Harbaugh passed, saying he doesn't want to compare players.

Not in a positive light, not in a negative light, not in any light. Apparently we're all supposed to pretend the last six years of Smith's career never happened. It was all a mirage, a figment of our imagination. The past is the past and we're looking forward, blah blah blah.

It's already pretty annoying, this tired mantra of not getting into comparisons. The whole point of sports is to compare things. That's why there's a scoreboard. One team has more, one team has less. It's why coaches choose who starts, or who makes the team and who rides the bench or gets cut. Harbaugh probably makes a thousand comparisons a day. When he sees something on the practice field he doesn't like, it's because he's subconsciously comparing it to what it should look like.

The truthful part of his statement isn't about not making comparisons. Rather, it's the "I don't want to," part. I'm sure Harbaugh would simply love to answer every single question "I don't want to tell you that," and for the most part he's doing precisely that.
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Alright, enough bitching. None of you care about that stuff and none of us will either, if the team plays well and Harbaugh proves he can coach at this level. The news of the day, and I guess I've buried the lede in that sense, is that Crabtree was practicing, in what little portion of practice we were allowed to watch (dang it, I'm doing it again). He wasn't running full speed, more like 75% I'd say, but that's not to say that he's not capable of it. I stress that we were only watching warmups, with Smith and Kaepernick throwing passes to receivers who aren't being covered by anybody. Guys are pretty much stretching out their limbs and we're ushered out of there well before anybody lines up 11-on-11. Crabtree wasn't listed as "limited" or anything like that on the injury report, so we can only assume he's fully healthy and ready to go. The enigmatic receiver has promised he'll talk to his once he's back running routes and practicing, so he'll be out of excuses by the time we're at his locker tomorrow.

In fact, on the injury report -- the first one they've released since camp opened a month ago (crap, I can't help myself) -- the only name on it was safety Dashon Goldson, who confided to CSN Bay Area that he hurt his knee in practice last week before the final preseason game at San Diego and that he couldn't have played in that one even if it was a regular season game. Well, Goldson missed today's practice too, so it's looking more and more likely that Madieu Williams will start at free safety, with Reggie Smith backing him up. It's true that Smith was atop the depth chart when camp began, but he's missed so much time with his own knee injury (including all four preseason games) and just started practicing recently himself, so it's hard to imagine him starting in week 1.
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Speaking of safeties, an interesting match-up to watch for against Seattle is going to be Donte Whitner against their new tight end Zach Miller, formerly of the Raiders. You may remember that Miller had quite a bit of success last year against the 49ers during their regular season meeting, when he burned then-rookie Taylor Mays and also their best coverage linebacker in Manny Lawson.

You say to yourself, "Well that won't happen again, almost anybody would be better than Mays," and while that's likely true, 49ers fans have to brace themselves for the reality that Whitner isn't exactly the second-coming of Ronnie Lott. Nor is he on par with guys like Troy Polamalu or Ed Reed. He's basically a rich man's Michael Lewis, and a guy who, at 26, is just entering his prime, but still an in-the-box safety. A tackle machine, yes, but not someone who can be counted on to check talented tight ends and quality receivers out of the backfield. Janie McCauley of the AP uncovered a troubling stat that Whitner actually allowed 10 (10!) touchdowns last season. Yikes.

For his part the personable Whitner isn't shying away from the match-up and he has an idea about the perception of his strengths and weaknesses as a player.

"I’m definitely excited for that match-up (with Miller)," he said. "We actually have the same agent, so we actually went through the free agency process together. I’m looking forward to it. I’m challenging myself. I’m challenging my teammates. It’s going to come down to some one-on-one battles with me and him. I know he played right across from here. He was in the Bay also. He’s a really good tight end in this league, but I think I see the best tight end in the National Football League here each and every day.

(Good answer.)

In fact, Whitner is the rare guy who admits to reading what the media and bloggers have to say about him.

"Coming from Buffalo I usually read a lot of the blogs and sometimes even fans," he explained. "They might not even know which defense you were in, you just might be in the area. It might not be your responsibility but they form their opinion based on what they see form the cut ups. Just a little extra motivation for myself."

You can't root in this business, of course, but lets just say I wouldn't mind seeing Whitner have a good day in coverage against the Seahawks.
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I'll have more about the match-up with Seattle on Friday, and a full-out 49ers preview on Saturday, but you'll forgive me if I ignore all the Harbaugh-Pete Carroll stuff for a couple of days. The columnists were out here in full force (save Ratto, who has apparently made it his goal to avoid 4949 Centennial Blvd. unless there's a gun to his head) hunting for that predictable story, but even more predictably, both coaches -- especially Harbaugh -- did what they could to pour cold water over that campfire.

Okay, technically Carroll did joke that he hopes to see a lot of boom mics at their pregame huddle so that the media can get "the real scoop" on how things are between the two, but both men claimed admiration for the other from a professional standpoint, but made it clear that they don't know each other socially and have no reason to. Harbaugh said he's not friendly with any coach in the NFL outside of his brother, so in that respect his relationship with Carroll isn't any different to him than the 30 other coaches in the league. However, he was wrong about that philosophy being standard operating procedure among coaches in the NFL. Lots of them are friends with each other, and good friends at that. Heck, some owe their current jobs to others.

I do agree with Harbaugh that for the most part the players will decide the game, not the coaches (that's almost always the case, unless there's a dramatic difference in the quality of the staffs, which is what the 49ers have been victims to in the past) and that it's an overrated story. I'm much more interested in the relationship between Harbaugh and Smith than I am in Harbaugh and Carroll. I also care about how Harbaugh is with us, and by extension, to the fans. That's everyday stuff. The Carroll thing is fleeting, just something to pass the time a couple weeks a year. The fact that it comes in the season opener, and the first game of Harbaugh's pro coaching career, pushes their personal angle into the back-burner in my mind. There's already so much other stuff to talk about.
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The thing that can't wait any longer is my predictions for the season, since the Thursday game between the Saints and defending champion Packers is coming up. What a beaut that one is, the last two Super Bowl winners and a pair of superstar quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. I'm scheduled to watch the game at the Cohn abode as young Grant has invited me over, and it should make for some good trash talk as we're squaring off against each other in the first week of fantasy and Brees and Greg Jennings are both on my roster.

So, without further ado...

AFC East:

1) NY Jets (11-5): Best secondary 1 thru 8 of anybody in the league, and I think Mark Sanchez takes another step forward.
2) New England (11-5): Everyone loves them, but I still see the same holes in their secondary, not to mention a lack of speed at receiver.
3) Miami (6-10): Some plucky young pass-rushers and a pair of good corners, but offense has to rely on Chad Henne and Reggie Bush.
4) Buffalo (5-11): They'll stop the run, and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is underrated, but there isn't much to like here. Their offensive line looks awful.

AFC North:

1) Baltimore (12-4): Remade their receiving corps in the off-season and got younger and faster. Defense needs rookie CB Jimmy Smith to contribute quickly.
2) Pittsburgh (10-6): The year after always seems to be Murphy's Law for Super Bowl losers. Steelers have shaky offensive tackles and overrated corners.
3) Cleveland (7-9): Organization taking positive steps, but still a couple years away. Need more at receiver, and playmakers on defense.
4) Cincinnati (3-13): Rookie starting QB, rookie receiver and a defense rebuilt around guys the 49ers didn't want. Oy vey.

AFC South:

1. Houston (10-6): I'm not sold on them as much as others. Defense showed pass-rushing potential, but it was only preseason. Need Arian Foster healthy.
2. Indianapolis (8-8): I didn't like this roster a whole lot even before Peyton Manning's injury woes came to light. A number of poor drafts in a row.
3. Tennessee (7-9): There's some talent here, especially at running back, but they have a stopgap veteran QB blocking a mobile rookie. Sounds familiar.
4. Jacksonville (4-12): Letting go of David Garrard signals they're pretty close to going with Blaine Gabbert at QB. He'll have to take his lumps.

AFC West:

1. San Diego (10-6): Love the offense, even with the platoon backs, but not sure their defense can pressure the passer consistently. Tougher schedule too.
2. Kansas City (9-7): They've got more talent on both sides of the ball than they get credit for, but losing TE Tony Moeaki will hurt a lot.
3. Denver (6-10): There isn't much on offense beyond Brandon Lloyd, but defense gets Elvis Dumervil back plus super-rookie 'backer Von Miller.
4. Oakland (5-11): They lost their best corner, their best run blocker and their best receiver in tight end Zach Miller. Where did they get better?

NFC East:

1. Philadelphia (12-4): They'll be close to unbeatable if that offensive line can keep Michael Vick and their skill guys healthy, but that's a big if.
2. Dallas (9-7): Getting Tony Romo back for the whole year will boost their fortunes, questions persist about their offensive line and secondary.
3. NY Giants (8-8): Their linebackers and secondary are beat up and Eli Manning looked inconsistent as ever in the preseason. Talented offense though.
4. Washington (5-11): That quarterback combo of Rex Grossman and John Beck might lead more cynical types to suspect they're tanking for Andrew Luck.

NFC North:

1. Green Bay (11-5): They've lost a lot of their reserves in the off-season, so either rookies step up or starters need to stay healthy. Not easy to repeat.
2. Minnesota (8-8): I like them a bit more than most. Donovan McNabb is due for a bounce-back year and they still have some elite players.
3. Detroit (7-9): Still a year or two away. They have no semblance of a secondary. Also questions at running back and with Stafford's wonky shoulder.
4. Chicago (7-9): Possibly the worst offensive line in the league and a less-than-impressive receiving corps around Jay Cutler. Overrated defense.

NFC South:

1. New Orleans (12-4): With rookie Mark Ingram aboard the offense should be unstoppable. Defense needs to prove it can get a pass rush without blitzing.
2. Tampa Bay (10-6): Young playmakers everywhere on offense and defense. Only problems are immaturity and a lack of quality depth behind starters.
3. Atlanta (10-6): Sure, offense looks dynamic, but what's there to love about their D? Their secondary is a mess. Same crew that gave up 48 points to Packers.
4. Carolina (3-13): If they intend to start Cam Newton the whole year it's gonna be ugly. It would be even if they didn't. Another crappy secondary.

NFC West:

1. St. Louis (9-7): Tough schedule, but the most complete team top to bottom. Defensive line has potential to pose a monster pass rush.
2. San Francisco (8-8): They'll be better than a lot of people think, but not quite good enough. That offensive line will be the death of them.
3. Arizona (7-9): Kevin Kolb is better than what they had last year, but not a franchise QB. Defense won't be able to pressure consistently.
4. Seattle (6-10): They might be terrible, possibly even on purpose, but their home field is worth two or three wins by itself.

Playoffs:

First round:

6) Pittsburgh over 3) Houston; 4) San Diego over 5) New England;
3) Green Bay over 6) Atlanta; 5) Tampa Bay over 4) St. Louis

Second round:

1) Baltimore over 5) New England; 3) San Diego over 2) NY Jets;
1) New Orleans over 5) Tampa Bay; 2) Philadelphia over 3) Green Bay

Conference Championships:

1) Baltimore over 4) San Diego; 1) New Orleans over 2) Philadelphia

Super Bowl:

New Orleans over Baltimore

Yeah, boring. Sue me. Should be a fun year and it all kicks off tomorrow. I like the Packers at home because the defending champion always wins the home debut on Thursday, though if any team can pull the upset, it's the Saints, who are probably more ready for the game. I think Green Bay's deep secondary is the difference. Yes, I like the Pack to cover the spread (-4.5).