If you need any affirmation of where our plucky San Francisco 49ers stand in the NFL's pecking order, consider the fact that last Sunday night, on the league-owned hour long highlight extravaganza, the visual evidence of their 33-17 triumph over the Seattle Seahawks consisted of a 15 second clip that picked up the action in the fourth quarter with the home side up 19-10. We got the 55-yard touchdown pass from Tarvaris Jackson to Doug Baldwin, where the former Stanford receiver wrong-footed nickel safety Reggie Smith, and then the ensuing 102-yard kick return by Ted Ginn which pushed the margin to nine once more.
Alex Smith's bootleg touchdown in the first half where he dove over two defenders? Not worthy. A montage of first half sacks the defensive line delivered to Jackson? Not relevant. Ginn's punt return touchdown to punctuate the game? Not necessary.
The next day, when asked how he celebrated his first NFL win as the head whistle, Jim Harbaugh, a fellow who gives off the strong impression that he wouldn't know how to celebrate anything if his life depended on it, remarked that he went home and watched TV.
"Just went home and watched the Cowboys game," he said. "Kind of flipped through the channels, the NFL network, and highlight express, and the ESPN blitz. Never caught one highlight of the 49ers on any of those, so I just watched the Cowboys game."
Did that strike you as peculiar, coach?
"No, we know it. It just kind of documents what you know. What the perception is of our team around the league and around the country. Some people can say that’s not fair, it isn’t right, but do something about it. And that’s our mindset. That’s our approach."
I suppose "Win one for the TV producer's attention" doesn't quite have the same ring to it as "Win one for the gipper," but athletes have been inspired by less.
For the record, the only game that got as such short shrift on the highlight shows as 49ers-Seahawks was Jaguars-Titans. What do these two have in common, kids? Divisional rivals in divisions the country doesn't care about, with stopgap quarterbacks squaring off. Should Alex Smith vs. Tarvaris Jackson have inspired that much interest than Luke McCown vs. Matt Hasselbeck? Until further notice, the answer is no.
However, team interest doesn't always align perfectly with records and expectations. The Lakers still got plenty of national games when they were reduced to Kobe Bryant and 11 guys named "Smush" and so did Michael Vick's Falcons teams even though he never figured out what a wide receiver was until he met Andy Reid at Philadelphia. People like who they like and the folks at ESPN decided long ago it's easier to conjure up "news" about those they deem interesting rather than waste precious resources reporting the news as it happens about any Tom, Dick or Harry. Besides, they have all those big money partnerships to protect, so why upset people by sifting through their dirty laundry?
So forget the TV stuff and let's get to the heart of what determines who's top dog in the NFL: The almighty point spread.
The 1-0 49ers, at the friendly confines of Candlestick Park, are field goal dogs to an 0-1 team that is almost identical on paper to the one that finished 6-10 last season. "Poppycock," you say. "That stat is biased. Tony Romo was hurt last season and the Cowboys are entirely different without him."
Well, who am I to argue that? In fact, not only was Dallas markedly different sans Romo, but they were better. They went 1-5 with their marque idol under center and 5-5 with Jon "Jon Kitna" Kitna, a backup so milquetoast that my nickname for him is his name. Romo certainly has the pretty numbers and the heart-thumping magnetism, with charisma that's practically off the scale, but for whatever reason he hasn't won much of late. Combine the opening weekend capitulation at the Jets and 2009's season-ending playoff massacre at the hands of Brett Favre and the Vikings and Romo is a sweet 1-7 in his last eight starts of note.
That's the guy, the one who throws ill-timed picks and fumbles when it's the least convenient time to do so, who's favored by a field goal over your Niners.
The hell of it is, no one is the least bit surprised. The point is not to put down the 49ers specifically, but rather that anybody in the NFC BEast would be favored against anybody from the West, at least if you listen to corner Carlos Rogers, who spent the first six seasons of his career at Washington.
"I was telling the guys, when I played the NFC East, that's the toughest (division)," said Rogers. "You look at the NFC West and you always looked at those guys as soft. You looked at those games as games you should win. I know that's (the Cowboys') mindset coming in here."
Indeed, you'd be hard-pressed to find anybody on the 49ers schedule who don't view them as a "W" with minimal effort, and like Harbaugh said, it's up to them to change that perception.
To do that, they'll have to join the 21st century and start flinging the rock. Their linemen know it, their receivers know it and even their quarterback, who makes a point of defending the "balanced" offensive philosophy at all times like a dutiful soldier, knows it.
"In the past game we were only throwing for a 124 yards," Smith said. "Obviously I’d like to build upon that. So we were efficient as far as completion percentage, but I’d really like to get a little more production."
Yes, you read that correctly. Alex Smith said he'd like to get little more production. He says it in a way like it's a favor he has to ask of his coaches, like a treat he's earned for cleaning his room and eating all his veggies. It doesn't exactly sound like a fellow who's gonna challenge Harbaugh the next time he hears a play-call for a draw to Frank Gore on 3rd-and-8.
That's been the Catch-22 with Smith throughout his career. He hasn't been given the same opportunities from a play-calling standpoint that other quarterbacks are regularly afforded, such as regularly getting to pass on 1st-and-10 or 3rd-and-2, and consequently the 49ers have never scored anywhere close to consistently enough with him under center to merit his coaches treating him the way they Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady gets treated. It's like a chicken and egg argument except the chicken is diseased and the egg is rotten.
New 49ers receiver Braylon Edwards insisted the other day that the team could win a shootout type of game, saying "I know we have what it takes to be in one of them. We have the offensive line, we have the receivers, the running back and the play-calling ability from the coaches."
Notice what critical ingredient he left out of the equation.
The team got away with having an extend preseason last week against Seattle, showing essentially nothing against the Seahawks and doing the bare minimum schematically on offense. If using a sixth offensive lineman is the creative zenith of your game plan, you either A) think absolutely nothing of your opponent B) think even less than that about your quarterback C) are scared to death your offensive line will get innocent spectators hurt, never mind the QB or D) all of the above.
Somewhere, deep inside his 14 layers of black sweaters, Harbaugh knew he wasn't being truthful by defending those runs up the gut by Gore as aggressive, attacking plays. I think he has a pretty good idea he'll have to pass the ball on Sunday and hope for the best, the same as he did with Tavita Pritchard at Stanford.
It'll be up to Smith to prove everyone wrong, and even if he does all the credit will go to his coach, or the blame to Romo, or it will be dismissed as a fluke. Reputations are hard to shake in this league and perception is everything, as a former 49ers quarterback of note is fond of saying.
What we do know is if Smith is ever gonna have a chance to get the home crowd on his side, Sunday's the day. The Cowboys will be without Terence Newman, whose groin is good enough to play on, but the team brass has decided the 49ers can be beaten without his services. They'll miss nickel corner Orlando Scandrick as well, while other starter Mike Jenkins will be limited by a wonky shoulder. Anthony Spencer, their second best pass rusher, also has a bad shoulder. In theory, as long as the 49ers double-team DeMarcus Ware on every play, they should tear these guys up. In theory, Smith was supposed to be a franchise savior as a number one pick. Things don't always work out as planned.
On the other side of the ball, the 49ers defense will get a second straight game against a young, inexperienced offensive line, and safety Donte Whitner will find that Jason Witten is a rich man's version of Zach Miller, with the difference between the two tight ends having more to do with their respective quarterbacks than anything else. I would figure Witten will see some bracket coverage, with Patrick Willis or NaVorro Bowman chipping in underneath. Rogers will draw a lot of one-on-one with Miles Austin, especially in the slot, and if Dez Bryant plays -- he's missed practice all week with a thigh contusion -- he's going to be impaired.
The Cowboys are in town, bruised and battered. They're expecting to win because they're them and the Niners are the Niners. Either way the highlight clip this time out will be a lot longer than 15 seconds and Michael Irvin and Deion Sanders will be doing plenty of chirping. We'll have to see if Harbaugh will be in the mood to watch it.
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Michael Crabtree looked more active in Thursday's individual drills on Thursday than he did on Wednesday, and was running short routes at 80 percent speed I'd say. He was still listed as "limited" in the official practice report, which is usually code for "did not participate in team drills."
Crabtree will be dying to play against his hometown Cowboys so he'll probably force the issue to at least be in the lineup at the beginning, but if he has any kind of setback in the game, I expect this time for the team to have second-year man Kyle Williams dressed and available. And really, with all the smoke everyone's blowing up Ted Ginn's rear end about how much he's improved as a receiver, you'd think they could play him a few snaps from scrimmage.
Dashon Goldson was mostly a spectator from what I saw and he too was listed as limited in the injury report. My guess is he'll be out for the second straight game and the team will once again depend on the combination of Madieu Williams and Reggie Smith. Hopefully Smith shook off some rust last week and will be more ready to contribute, but I have some bad vibes about him against Dallas' receiving corps. He's shown in the past to be susceptible to play-action and he's not the soundest tackler back there either.
Whether Goldson's absence is costly or not depends on if he'll be the 2009 Goldson when he returns or last year's version. If 2010 Dashon is the real one, then that guy can spend all year on the inactive list as far as I'm concerned. 2009 Goldson on the other hand, I'm quite fond of. The Cowboys have a guy like that too in Mike Jenkins. Great in '09, a disaster last year. Try figuring this game out.
Shawntae Spencer, meanwhile, has been a full participant in practice, but he's still behind both Tarell Brown and Tramaine Brock and doesn't figure to see the field from scrimmage. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio explained that Spencer, who missed practically all of training camp, is still not in football shape yet and can only be used in emergency situations. He may challenge for his old spot in the coming weeks.
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Carlos Rogers offered an interesting scouting report on Tony Romo based on his six head-to-head encounters with him:
"He's a quarterback that if you give him time, let him sit back and don't put pressure on him, he can be a Hall-of-Fame quarterback. If you put pressure on him
and you give him different looks, you've got a chance. And that's one of the main things we always knew. You've got to show him different looks. We always knew his outlet, when he'd get in trouble, he's going to (tight end Jason) Witten. So from my experience that's what you've got to do against him. Show him different looks and mix up your coverages. Send pressure at him because he can sit back there and pick you apart."
What about his scrambling, does that worry you?
"You can't look at Romo and think 'OK, I'm going to give him three or four seconds and the ball should be out.' He can do that little pump fake, make guys jump, scramble and throw. He's not a big runner, but if he's got to, he will. He can extend plays."
Is his greatest asset, his improvisational skill, also his biggest weakness?
"Our thing we always said about him was that he would give us two chances. That was one thing that we always said every year. Romo will give you two chances. The games that we won, when he gave us those chances, we took advantage of them. Some games we didn't take advantage, and we didn't get to him in the backfield, he just picked us apart."
Have I mentioned that I love Carlos Rogers? He's definitely our early favorite for the Niver award.
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Other thoughts/picks for Week 2:
Cleveland at Indianapolis (+3): It all depends on who gets that 10 point lead. The Colts have a smallish front line that the Browns should be able to run on, but those two great edge rushers in Dwight Freeney and Rasheen Mathis to protect any leads they'd get. A shaky pick for the home team. Colts 20, Browns 13.
Kansas City at Detroit (-9): I'm more of a believer in Detroit than I was last week, but nine points is an awful lot. Jamaal Charles should be able to run in that dome enough to keep them in the game. Lions 27, Chiefs 23.
Oakland at Buffalo (-4): The Bills with Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams should be able to stop the Raiders running game cold and Silver & Black get no favors from Mr. Schedulemaker, having to fly all the way to Buffalo for an early 10 a.m. game after having had a late Monday night start the week before. Bills 27, Raiders 13. **FOUR POINT SPECIAL**
Baltimore at Tennessee (+7): Seven point underdogs at home seems like a lot of points to lay, but I can't think of a single argument against Baltimore except they'll be too full of themselves after trouncing Pittsburgh. Ravens 23, Titans 10. **TWO POINT SPECIAL**
Tampa Bay at Minnesota (-3): The biggest game of the morning slate. The loser is in a world of hurt against a deep NFC field with so many Wild Card candidates. I gotta go the team with the best player, which is Adrian Peterson, so I'm taking the Vikes at home with no confidence whatsoever. Vikings 24, Buccaneers 20.
Chicago at New Orleans (-7): Many members of the Bears team will travel with Brian Urlacher to his mother's funeral, which is highly unusual. It speaks to how deeply he's entrenched as the talisman of that organization, more so than anyone since Walter Payton. It also signals the strong bond he has with his teammates, who could hardly function in practice without his presence. Gotta go with the upset pick here against the team I picked to win the Super Bowl, based purely on emotion. I think the Bears will absolutely play their guts out for their middle linebacker, as sappy as that sounds. Bears 24, Saints 23.
Jacksonville at NY Jets (-9): Nine points? Really? What on Earth did the Jets show on Sunday nine to prove they can beat anyone by nine? Rex Ryan's guys will typically sleepwalk through the first half and the Jaguars will find a way to keep this annoyingly close. Jets 19, Jaguars 16.
Seattle at Pittsburgh (-15): Not to go all Simmons on you, but this is an absolutely ridiculous line. I was off by 8 points when I guessed what it would be in the morning. I know the Steelers defense will be angry, but they're not gonna get younger overnight. Besides, that referee is gonna give Seattle a couple of makeup calls methinks. Steelers 23, Seahawks 16.
Arizona at Washington (-4): It's not the venue that makes this a rough game for the Cardinals but rather that they get the 'Skins in the first half of the year, when they're always feisty, than in December, when they're in vacation mode. Redskins 27, Cardinals 17.
Green Bay at Carolina (+11): Cam Newton passed for 422 yards last week and is making his home debut. You think that would be enough for me to happily take the points. Like a fool, I'm gonna lay them, and I probably would if the line was 14. Packers 40, Panthers 13. **FIVE POINT SPECIAL**
Dallas at San Francisco (+3): No, I don't think Alex Smith will stink it up, but I'm not ready to declare the 49ers a top-10 defense yet either. Either way, I'm curious to see what Harbaugh and his coaches are all about, at last. Cowboys 27, 49ers 20.
Cincinnati at Denver (-4): Andy Dalton is the only compelling reason to watch this game. Everyone likes the Bengals in this one because they can kinda sorta run and pass while the Broncos can't run a lick. I don't know. It seems too easy. Denver 31, Cincinnati 20.
Houston at Miami (+3): Still don't think Arian Foster will be ready to play and these are the kind of games the Texans always blow. If Miami can't pull this out, I'm done with 'em for the year. Miami 23, Houston 20.
San Diego at New England (-7): What the heck, a second upset pick. The Pats are overdue to lose a home game in the regular season and call me crazy, I'll take the team with the better defense. Who on New England can cover Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson or Malcolm Floyd? San Diego 30, New England 27.
Philadelphia at Atlanta (+3): First off, I'll take Vick and the Eagles in virtually any game on turf, that's a given. But when you factor in the glaring difference between the two secondaries and the fact that it will be akin to a home game for Philly because of their quarterback, how can I not take them? Also, I have to say for the record, and this is coming from an Eagles guy, that I find the whole racial dynamic of this game, where a large segment of the crowd will be rooting against their own team, very disappointing and a bit creepy. It's 2011 and we should be beyond this stuff.
That Martin Luther King Jr. message about judging a man not by the color of his skin but the content of his character cuts both ways. Vick was a good player for the Falcons, but a highly overrated one. What did he ever win for them? Shouldn't their fans revile him, if not for his crimes, than at least for being dumb enough to piss away his career there instead of worshiping him? Vick even admitted he wasn't a professional as a Falcon and didn't work nearly hard enough, yet he's still loved down there. I just don't get it. Eagles 37, Falcons 24. **THREE POINT SPECIAL**
St. Louis at NY Giants (-6): You get the feeling this game will either be a real dog or wildly entertaining, with nothing in between. The Rams are beat up on offense, while the Giants defense is decimated. If the Rams drop it, they can be staring a 1-6 start in the face. A third upset pick here, because Steve Spagnuolo knows the Giants personnel better than the other way around. Rams 20, Giants 17.
Week 1 Record: 11-5
Vs. Spread: 8-7-1
+/- Points (All games count as one unless otherwise specified): -5
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