Remember the good ol' days when the New Orleans Saints were in the NFC West? Until 2002, they were and the 49ers played them twice a year every season. In fact, back in the 90's when they were coached by Jim Mora Sr., the Saints were often the biggest threats to San Francisco's division supremacy. For those of you who would like to forget the past eight seasons -- and who would blame you? -- it's very easy to harken back to a simpler time when annual road trips to places like The Superdome and Atlanta's Fulton County Stadium were the norm for your locals.
So it strikes me as a bit of a happy coincidence that here we are in 2011 and once again, the squad breathing down the 49ers collective necks, and really the ones whose results they're taking note of on the scoreboard, are those same Saints, their real NFC West rivals who just happen to not technically be in the division any longer.
The real NFC West, as you've no doubt noticed, is about as imposing as Group A of the recently announced Euro 2012 draw (Russia, Czech Republic, Greece and host Poland). While the 49ers have yet to officially clinch it -- a win on Sunday wraps it up -- it's been done and dusted since mid-October. Whatever claptrap the Niners coaches and players offer you about rivalry games and not looking past the Arizona Cardinals of the world is a bunch of politically correct hooey. Their real rivals are Saints, in all their Drew Brees-ian, Darren Sproles-ish, Jimmy Graham-esque and Sean Payton-ish glory.
At 8-3 the Saints are 1.5 games behind your 49ers in the battle for the No. 2 seed. Because all three of their losses have come against conference opponents (vs. just one NFC loss for the Niners), San Francisco has the tie-breaker on them, and would have to drop at least two of their final five games to relinquish their first round bye. Still, the Saints have been streaking of late and they seem to have everyone's attention. Alex Smith admitted that he watched their Monday night curb-stomping of the New York Giants, while a certain beat reporter who will go unnamed referenced Sproles in a question to 49ers skipper Jim Harbaugh when he meant to say Steven Jackson, the St. Louis Rams featured runner, instead. Harbaugh, who prefers to stay on autopilot during his media obligations, didn't skip a beat in answering the question anyway.
As it stands, a second-round playoff matchup between the 49ers and Saints seems virtually inevitable. New Orleans is 5-0 at home and just crushing people with an offense that's unstoppable at home. Too much speed from Graham and Sproles, too much precision from Brees, too much wizardry from Payton. On the road they haven't been nearly as consistent, with Brees in particular being far more forthcoming with the turnovers. Though the 49ers may well be underdogs either way, they would have a far better chance of overcoming the Saints at home and with a week of rest than vice versa.
And that, ladies and germs, is the best -- really the only -- reason for Niners to take the rest of their schedule, beginning with Sunday's tilt with the downtrodden 2-9 Rams, at all seriously. St. Louis may have a victory over the Saints to their credit, but precious little else has gone right for them these past few years. To put it in perspective, with a win on Sunday Harbaugh would tie Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo on the career win list with 10 despite the latter's 32-game head start.
St. Louis has been decimated by injuries, particularly at cornerback and along the offensive line, and they weren't strong at either of those positions to begin with. Their safeties are slow. Their quarterbacks have rags for arms. Sophomore Sam Bradford has been such a disappointment that it seems to matter little if he plays on his gimpy ankle (didn't practice on Thursday, "very limited" according to Spagnuolo on Friday) or if A.J. Feeley gets the nod instead. Jackson is above average, but the 49ers defense has chewed up and spat out far better than him and ex-Niner Brandon Lloyd is their lone playmaker. Cover him with two guys and poof, he's a rumor.
Defensively the Rams have a formidable front four, but one that like Philadelphia and Detroit, that's hellbent on getting to the quarterback at all cost -- leading sack man Chris Long has missed practice all week with an ankle injury but said he's gonna play -- to the point of ignoring their running game responsibilities completely. They're dead last against the rush, allowing 159 yards a game and over five a pop. Even their pass defense, which 49ers offensive Greg Roman charitably described as "unique," gambles so recklessly that they've been prone to big plays.
"From a coverage and pressure standpoint, I’d say when they first started developing this system, they were willing to take more what people would call risks in coverage than other teams," Roman said. "They would add a guy to the blitz, still play a version of zone coverage and basically burn a zone, as we say, vacate a zone to add another guy to the blitz. Basically, a lot of their blitzes just take the old playbooks and shred them when it comes to protections and rules."
Roman added, "They’ve done a phenomenal job," a line once uttered by George W. Bush to former FEMA Director Michael Brown during the Katrina disaster, to tie this back to the Saints in our typically morbid fashion. If ever the 49ers will have a pass play over 50 yards (their season-long is 44, to running back Kendall Hunter at Philadelphia, naturally), Sunday should be the game.
A record that's an even safer record to be broken, however, is the franchise's all-time rushing mark of 7,344 yards, which is currently held by late Hall-of-Famer Joe "The Jet" Perry. Frank Gore is but 21 yards away from passing Perry and it's sure to be the secondary story in your Monday game recap after the pomp and circumstance of the 49ers division title clinching. Sure, Spagnuolo could choose to put 11 in the box and let Smith throw for 13 uncovered touchdowns, and as oddly entertaining as that would be, I'm guessing he'll play it more straight up and Gore will be taking a bow midway through the first quarter.
The game itself should be decided not too long after that, giving all involved a chance to drive home early and check out that Lions-Saints game and count their blessings that they're no longer in the division.
Picks (already 0-1 this week!)
Indianapolis at New England (-21): I probably would've picked the Pats to cover if the line was 27. Then again, I'm a terrible gambler. Patriots 45, Colts 3.
Tennessee at Buffalo (-3): If you have any doubts about how little anyone trusts the Titans, here you go. They're a desperate bunch, hanging on for dear life at a playoff bid, and they're underdogs against a team that's lost four straight. I should know better, but I'm picking them. Titans 20, Bills 13
Kansas City at Chicago (-7): The first offensive coordinator who calls a pass play before somebody has either a 14 point deficit or is facing a 3rd-and-15 should be fired. Bears 17, Chiefs 6
Oakland at Miami (-3): The Raiders are just the kind of no-nonsense running team that won't let a frisky Dolphins bunch rattle them on the road. Or so I'm telling myself. Raiders 27, Dolphins 23
Denver at Minnesota (-1): A battle of the quarterbacking Christians. Sadly, I think Tim Tebow will run for more yards than Toby Gerhart. Broncos 13, Vikings 10
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-7): The Bengals come into this one a lot healthier than Pittsburgh, so that line seems too high to me. I'm picking an upset, mainly because it's not like I'm wagering money on these things. Bengals 24, Steelers 23
Carolina at Tampa Bay (-3): Over/under Cam Newton turnovers is at 3.5. I'm taking the over, and thus a Bucs win that does them not a lick of good. Buccaneers 27, Panthers 20
NY Jets at Washington (+3): And here come the Jets, steamrolling into January, ready for their annual two road wins and crushing AFC title game loss.* Jets 20, Redskins 13 *May not happen.
Atlanta at Houston (+3): The Texans signed Jake Delhomme, which means for the first time in recorded history a stadium full of fans will be thinking, "I hope T.J. Yates doesn't get hurt." Falcons might put all 11 in the box. Falcons 17, Texans 13
Baltimore at Cleveland (+7): I think the Ravens are the best team in the AFC and I couldn't trust them any less to beat the Browns. In fact, I'll consider it a sign of growth and maturity if they win the game at all. Ravens 17, Browns 16
St. Louis at San Francisco (-14): How the heck is an offense struggling as badly as the 49ers getting 14? That's nuts. That's absolutely asinine. Ludicrous on every conceivable level. 49ers 27, Rams 10
Green Bay at NY Giants (+7): Mayhaps I was too high on the Giants earlier in the season. I tend to overvalue NFC East teams that are actually based in the east. My new position, as bold as it may be, is that the Packers are pretty good. Packers 44, Giants 27
Dallas at Arizona (+5): Someday, perhaps a month from now, the Cowboys will have to face an NFL team instead of this steady claptrap of Division I-AA gutter runoff. Oh what a glorious afternoon that will be for all of us. Cowboys 30, Cardinals 16
Detroit at New Orleans (-9): Lions fans thought they saw a stomping last game, wait until Drew Brees and the fellas get through with 'em. Saints 45, Lions 21
San Diego at Jacksonville (+3): I would rather watch an NBA preseason game between the Bobcats and the Pacers. I would rather watch a hockey game between Columbus and Florida. I might even rather watch a college basketball game. And about now I remember that both of my fantasy running backs are prominently involved in this one. Goddammit. Chargers 8, Jaguars 4
Power Poll
1. Green Bay (11-0)
2. Baltimore (8-3)
3. Pittsburgh (8-3)
4. San Francisco (9-2)
5. New Orleans (8-3)
6. New England (8-3)
7. Houston (8-3)
8. Cincinnati (7-4)
9. Dallas (7-4)
10. Oakland (7-4)
11. Chicago (7-4)
12. Atlanta (7-4)
13. Detroit (7-4)
14. New York Giants (6-5)
15. New York Jets (6-5)
16. Tennessee (6-5)
17. Denver (6-5)
18. Seattle (5-7)
19. Tampa Bay (4-7)
20. Miami (3-8)
21. Washington (4-7)
22. Buffalo (5-6)
23. Cleveland (4-7)
24. Arizona (4-7)
25. Carolina (3-8)
26. San Diego (4-7)
27. Jacksonville (3-8)
28. St. Louis (2-9)
29. Minnesota (2-9)
30. Kansas City (4-7)
31. Indianapolis (0-11)
8,415,913. Philadelphia (4-8)
Showing posts with label Alex Smith. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alex Smith. Show all posts
Friday, December 2, 2011
Friday, November 25, 2011
49ers-Ravens recap: Niners drew short end of the wishbone
It’s not often that a football game is decided with 14:08 to go in the second quarter, but Thursday night’s overhyped affair against the menacing Baltimore Ravens essentially was. Right about the time referee John Parry announced to god and country that an apparent 75-yard touchdown pass from Alex Smith to Ted Ginn was null and void due to a ticky-tack chop block call on Frank Gore, 49ers skipper Jim Harbaugh had to be thinking to himself, “Really? REALLY? The league hasn’t done enough to us in this game, and now you’re making THAT call?”
Harbaugh hinted the whole week that he didn’t have a good feeling in his gut about the game and voiced the “competitive disadvantage” excuse again both after the game and during the next day postmortem conference call. “It’s the truth,” he said. “I’m not whining or complaining about it, but it’s the truth.”
He’s right, obviously. There’s a reason no west coast team has played on Thanksgiving since 1975. It would be one thing to ask if of the 49ers if they had a bye week the Sunday before, but without it the turnaround, having basically two whole days to prepare for the Ravens since Wednesday was wiped out by the travel, is just not enough against a squad as talented across the board as Baltimore. Very few teams outside of Green Bay have a shot in that situation.
The ironic aspect of it is, it was a scheduled “L” attributable solely to the Harbaugh hire. While Harbaugh has helped them win a handful of games they otherwise might not have this season, he was their single biggest liability against Baltimore because of his bloodlines. If the 49ers had hired any other human as their coach – with the possible exception of Harbaugh’s father, Jack – they would not have been asked to play under this circumstance and their trip to Jason Whitlock’s favorite metropolis would’ve been on a regular football Sunday.
The least the league could’ve done for the 49ers would’ve been to let them play at Washington on Sunday instead of two weeks ago, and indeed they did put that request in when the schedule was being made. Since Commissioner Roger Goodell respects his local barista more than 49ers President Jed York, they got boned. So it goes until they start winning some games in January and earning their once-esteemed reputation back.
I wrote during my game preview that the Niners would have to jump on the Ravens early before fatigue sets in to have any chance and that they would look to come out passing early and often with Alex Smith in the shotgun, and what do you know, that was exactly the plan. If that Ginn touchdown counted, all of a sudden the 49ers would've been up 10-3 and it could've been a different ballgame. That call changed everything. The Ravens, thanks to the zebras, took San Francisco's best punch and the Niners didn't have a lot to offer after that.
Frank Gore (14 carries for 39 yards) predictably didn't do much, not against a Baltimore front that came into the game allowing a league-leading 3.3 yards-per-carry and especially not after getting 24 mostly needless carries against Arizona the Sunday prior. Kendall Hunter showed a couple of flashes, but didn't get many opportunities.
The story of the game, aside from that call, was of course the nine sacks Smith absorbed. It was a surprise in the aspect that the Niners came into the game having allowed a respectable 21 sacks in 10 games, and 11 of those in consecutive games against Dallas and Cincinnati. Since replacing 2008 second-round bust Chilo Rachal with Adam Snyder midway through that Bengals game, they'd allowed 10 sacks in 7.5 games.
However, given the scheduling of the game and the opponent involved, the onslaught against Smith really isn't as much of a shock as you would think. I believe Harbaugh had the truth of it when he said about a third of the sacks were bad protection calls against the blitzes the Ravens had (you can argue that's Smith's fault), a third where guys got flat out physically beat (Rachal and Anthony Davis, repeatedly) and a third were Smith's fault for not getting rid of the ball sooner. Again, scheduling plays a huge part in this, and Smith alluded to it after the game. If the 49ers had more time to prepare, they'd have a better game plan for the various zone blitzes the Ravens threw at them. There wouldn't be as many mental mistakes and missed assignments from Smith and the linemen. It all factors into it.
Really, I could even argue Snyder's injury is due, at least in part, to having to play on a short week. It's no secret that he's the worst athlete among the seven offensive linemen the team dresses every week. Snyder gets by because he's smart, he works hard, he studies his ass off and he competes. In short, he's the anti-Rachal, in every respect. Physically though, Snyder is just not built to play twice in five days, and his body gave out on him. Harbaugh can only hope that he'll be ready to go ten days from now and thank his lucky stars that Smith is still in one piece.
Beyond the protections, the lack of preparation time turned this into basically a preseason game as far as game planning, with nothing but basic, vanilla plays out there. I have too much faith in Harbaugh, Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman, and the rest of the coaching staff to believe that in normal circumstances they wouldn't have plays dialed up to counteract the obscene amounts of pressure the Ravens were putting on them. Where were the screens? The misdirections? The draws?
Defensively, it was much the same. The front seven were proud warriors when it came to stopping Ray Rice and the Ravens running game, and refused to allow a touchdown even when Baltimore had 2nd-and-goal from inside the 1-yard-line, but the pass rush was totally nonexistent. It's plain as day that this defense is gassed. Donte Whitner was overpowered by Lee Evans, of all people. NaVorro Bowman didn't have the legs to catch up with Rice on a flare route. Patrick Willis was outflanked by fullback Vonta Leach, a guy he can beat in a race like the roadrunner against Wile E. Coyote (beep beep) under normal circumstances. Even Justin Smith, the team's indefatigable iron-man, tapped out for a couple plays to suck wind on the sidelines. Harbaugh refused to play subs like inside linebacker Larry Grant or those young linemen he's got collecting dust, and you have to wonder what this defense will look like in December.
You look at the calls that Vic Fangio dialed up and it was as vanilla as it gets. He rushed four the whole time, never blitzing once on third down, even though it was clear the front line wasn't breathing on Flacco. The Niners spent a lot of time in zone coverage, which to me suggests fatigue and trying to protect guys from being on islands. There were plays where Baltimore's best receiver, Anquan Boldin, was being covered by Ahmad Brooks. Mistakes like that haven't happened since early in the season. You can't tell me the coaching staff put a lot of time and nuance into the game plan, I'm just not buying it. Flacco converted all six of his third down attempts when he actually passed the ball.
Call me crazy, but for all the feature stories in print and video about Jim Harbaugh's legendary competitiveness, I just don't think winning this game mattered to him as much as people would think. For the first time all season I didn't sense an edge from him going into the game and I found it curious that he was making excuses during the week. I know the hype pointed to this game like it would matter more to Harbaugh to beat his brother than any other game this season, but having observed him all year, I truly don't think he's wired that way. I think he means it when his brother is his best friend and that he doesn't have personal relationships with the other 30 head coaches. Those guys are his "enemies," not his brother. I think Harbaugh is a smart guy and a big picture thinker above all. If there was ever a situation for him to let up, it would be in out of conference game on a short week when he's got a five game lead in his division.
I'm not saying Harbaugh "threw" the game by any means, because he didn't. I'm just pointing out that the coaching staff didn't go out of its way to cram a week's worth of game planning into two days. It just looked bare bones to me on both sides of the ball, all too reminiscent of the previous regime. Once that Ginn touchdown got taken away, there was a collective sense that it wasn't going to be their night.
Going forward, I think the St. Louis Rams and future opponents will pay attention to this game and try to blitz the 49ers back into the stone age. I expect Roman to have plays to counteract that. I also expect Fangio to be a lot more aggressive on his end. Snyder's injury is a concern because there is only so much you can do to cover for Rachal.
Harbaugh's biggest problem is trying to figure out what, if anything, the team can get from Braylon Edwards, who is playing with all the intensity of Randy Moss on the Raiders, jogging through his routes and not fighting for the ball. It's one thing to not be on the same page with Alex Smith on a deep ball -- Smith threw in, Edwards went out -- but quite another to not even try to break up the pass and prevent the turnover. Harbaugh looks befuddled as to who his second receiver should be, as he's constantly shuffling through Edwards, Ginn and Kyle Williams, looking for a solution. Hopefully over the next ten days he'll have a "come to Jesus" talk with Edwards, because at this point there's got to be somebody better on the street.
All in all, 9-2 and pole position for the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye is not a bad spot to be. Way too early to panic just because they lost the toughest game on their sked. If some of the bad trends we've seen the past few weeks don't correct themselves next Sunday against the Rams, then it will be time to ask some serious questions.
Harbaugh hinted the whole week that he didn’t have a good feeling in his gut about the game and voiced the “competitive disadvantage” excuse again both after the game and during the next day postmortem conference call. “It’s the truth,” he said. “I’m not whining or complaining about it, but it’s the truth.”
He’s right, obviously. There’s a reason no west coast team has played on Thanksgiving since 1975. It would be one thing to ask if of the 49ers if they had a bye week the Sunday before, but without it the turnaround, having basically two whole days to prepare for the Ravens since Wednesday was wiped out by the travel, is just not enough against a squad as talented across the board as Baltimore. Very few teams outside of Green Bay have a shot in that situation.
The ironic aspect of it is, it was a scheduled “L” attributable solely to the Harbaugh hire. While Harbaugh has helped them win a handful of games they otherwise might not have this season, he was their single biggest liability against Baltimore because of his bloodlines. If the 49ers had hired any other human as their coach – with the possible exception of Harbaugh’s father, Jack – they would not have been asked to play under this circumstance and their trip to Jason Whitlock’s favorite metropolis would’ve been on a regular football Sunday.
The least the league could’ve done for the 49ers would’ve been to let them play at Washington on Sunday instead of two weeks ago, and indeed they did put that request in when the schedule was being made. Since Commissioner Roger Goodell respects his local barista more than 49ers President Jed York, they got boned. So it goes until they start winning some games in January and earning their once-esteemed reputation back.
I wrote during my game preview that the Niners would have to jump on the Ravens early before fatigue sets in to have any chance and that they would look to come out passing early and often with Alex Smith in the shotgun, and what do you know, that was exactly the plan. If that Ginn touchdown counted, all of a sudden the 49ers would've been up 10-3 and it could've been a different ballgame. That call changed everything. The Ravens, thanks to the zebras, took San Francisco's best punch and the Niners didn't have a lot to offer after that.
Frank Gore (14 carries for 39 yards) predictably didn't do much, not against a Baltimore front that came into the game allowing a league-leading 3.3 yards-per-carry and especially not after getting 24 mostly needless carries against Arizona the Sunday prior. Kendall Hunter showed a couple of flashes, but didn't get many opportunities.
The story of the game, aside from that call, was of course the nine sacks Smith absorbed. It was a surprise in the aspect that the Niners came into the game having allowed a respectable 21 sacks in 10 games, and 11 of those in consecutive games against Dallas and Cincinnati. Since replacing 2008 second-round bust Chilo Rachal with Adam Snyder midway through that Bengals game, they'd allowed 10 sacks in 7.5 games.
However, given the scheduling of the game and the opponent involved, the onslaught against Smith really isn't as much of a shock as you would think. I believe Harbaugh had the truth of it when he said about a third of the sacks were bad protection calls against the blitzes the Ravens had (you can argue that's Smith's fault), a third where guys got flat out physically beat (Rachal and Anthony Davis, repeatedly) and a third were Smith's fault for not getting rid of the ball sooner. Again, scheduling plays a huge part in this, and Smith alluded to it after the game. If the 49ers had more time to prepare, they'd have a better game plan for the various zone blitzes the Ravens threw at them. There wouldn't be as many mental mistakes and missed assignments from Smith and the linemen. It all factors into it.
Really, I could even argue Snyder's injury is due, at least in part, to having to play on a short week. It's no secret that he's the worst athlete among the seven offensive linemen the team dresses every week. Snyder gets by because he's smart, he works hard, he studies his ass off and he competes. In short, he's the anti-Rachal, in every respect. Physically though, Snyder is just not built to play twice in five days, and his body gave out on him. Harbaugh can only hope that he'll be ready to go ten days from now and thank his lucky stars that Smith is still in one piece.
Beyond the protections, the lack of preparation time turned this into basically a preseason game as far as game planning, with nothing but basic, vanilla plays out there. I have too much faith in Harbaugh, Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman, and the rest of the coaching staff to believe that in normal circumstances they wouldn't have plays dialed up to counteract the obscene amounts of pressure the Ravens were putting on them. Where were the screens? The misdirections? The draws?
Defensively, it was much the same. The front seven were proud warriors when it came to stopping Ray Rice and the Ravens running game, and refused to allow a touchdown even when Baltimore had 2nd-and-goal from inside the 1-yard-line, but the pass rush was totally nonexistent. It's plain as day that this defense is gassed. Donte Whitner was overpowered by Lee Evans, of all people. NaVorro Bowman didn't have the legs to catch up with Rice on a flare route. Patrick Willis was outflanked by fullback Vonta Leach, a guy he can beat in a race like the roadrunner against Wile E. Coyote (beep beep) under normal circumstances. Even Justin Smith, the team's indefatigable iron-man, tapped out for a couple plays to suck wind on the sidelines. Harbaugh refused to play subs like inside linebacker Larry Grant or those young linemen he's got collecting dust, and you have to wonder what this defense will look like in December.
You look at the calls that Vic Fangio dialed up and it was as vanilla as it gets. He rushed four the whole time, never blitzing once on third down, even though it was clear the front line wasn't breathing on Flacco. The Niners spent a lot of time in zone coverage, which to me suggests fatigue and trying to protect guys from being on islands. There were plays where Baltimore's best receiver, Anquan Boldin, was being covered by Ahmad Brooks. Mistakes like that haven't happened since early in the season. You can't tell me the coaching staff put a lot of time and nuance into the game plan, I'm just not buying it. Flacco converted all six of his third down attempts when he actually passed the ball.
Call me crazy, but for all the feature stories in print and video about Jim Harbaugh's legendary competitiveness, I just don't think winning this game mattered to him as much as people would think. For the first time all season I didn't sense an edge from him going into the game and I found it curious that he was making excuses during the week. I know the hype pointed to this game like it would matter more to Harbaugh to beat his brother than any other game this season, but having observed him all year, I truly don't think he's wired that way. I think he means it when his brother is his best friend and that he doesn't have personal relationships with the other 30 head coaches. Those guys are his "enemies," not his brother. I think Harbaugh is a smart guy and a big picture thinker above all. If there was ever a situation for him to let up, it would be in out of conference game on a short week when he's got a five game lead in his division.
I'm not saying Harbaugh "threw" the game by any means, because he didn't. I'm just pointing out that the coaching staff didn't go out of its way to cram a week's worth of game planning into two days. It just looked bare bones to me on both sides of the ball, all too reminiscent of the previous regime. Once that Ginn touchdown got taken away, there was a collective sense that it wasn't going to be their night.
Going forward, I think the St. Louis Rams and future opponents will pay attention to this game and try to blitz the 49ers back into the stone age. I expect Roman to have plays to counteract that. I also expect Fangio to be a lot more aggressive on his end. Snyder's injury is a concern because there is only so much you can do to cover for Rachal.
Harbaugh's biggest problem is trying to figure out what, if anything, the team can get from Braylon Edwards, who is playing with all the intensity of Randy Moss on the Raiders, jogging through his routes and not fighting for the ball. It's one thing to not be on the same page with Alex Smith on a deep ball -- Smith threw in, Edwards went out -- but quite another to not even try to break up the pass and prevent the turnover. Harbaugh looks befuddled as to who his second receiver should be, as he's constantly shuffling through Edwards, Ginn and Kyle Williams, looking for a solution. Hopefully over the next ten days he'll have a "come to Jesus" talk with Edwards, because at this point there's got to be somebody better on the street.
All in all, 9-2 and pole position for the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye is not a bad spot to be. Way too early to panic just because they lost the toughest game on their sked. If some of the bad trends we've seen the past few weeks don't correct themselves next Sunday against the Rams, then it will be time to ask some serious questions.
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Dominating Mediocrity a Flashback of 49ers Past
How far we've come with the San Francisco 49ers.
As a kid, I grew up reading Ira Miller's game stories and Monday morning report cards in the San Francisco Chronicle. This was during the glorious 80's, so after a few dominant seasons, Miller got spoiled along with the fans and started to expect perfection. He turned into a harsh grader, and I remember all too well how the Niners would cream some poor saps like the then-St. Louis Cardinals or the Atlanta Falcons like 34-13, and in the paper next day Miller would be giving them a "B-" here or a "C+" there. It got to the point where they were so good that it was just impossible to impress.
So imagine my surprise at how quickly the team has turned around its woebegone fortunes. In past seasons they would have had to play darn near perfectly to beat somebody by two touchdowns, but against the hapless Arizona Cardinals they won easily, 23-7, in a game where they played average at best on offense and below par on special teams.
The defense was spectacular, of course, but you knew all along it would be, didn't you? FOX analyst Brian Billick, when he wasn't butchering names left and right, relayed a quote from 49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio that the Niners wouldn't even have to bother disguising their coverages against overmatched Cardinals QB John Skelton because "he can't read them anyway." Fangio had suggested to us earlier in the week that Skelton pretty much has a radar lock on Larry Fitzgerald, so once the Niners took him out of the game with double teams -- as I predicted -- the game got pretty complicated for Skelton, who was just terrible.
The pass rush was still spotty, though better than in the previous game against the New York Giants, and the run defense gave up 80 yards rushing, mostly due to boredom than anything else, but you can't quibble with four turnovers and three interceptions. Patrick Willis continues to make his case for Defensive Player of the Year honors and picked up his first interception and fourth forced fumble of the season on back-to-back Arizona possessions in the first quarter. I would've liked to see young linemen Ricky Jean Francois and Demarcus Dobbs get some playing time in this one, and Larry Grant at linebacker in relief of Willis and NaVorro Bowman, but can't complain too much because the defense was only on the field a little over 15 minutes, so for them it was like having a half off anyway.
What was a little interesting to me is how Shawntae Spencer continues to be stuck in the doghouse. He was activated last Sunday as a precaution because starter Tarell Brown banged up his knee a bit in practice the Friday before -- fourth safety Madieu Williams was scratched in his place -- but he never got into the game at all, even in garbage time. Instead Tramaine Brock got some work as the fourth corner. To see a quality corner like Spencer, who's still in his prime, go from a starter to third-string so quickly, behind a rookie and another guy in Brock who was signed as an undrafted free agent last year, is startling to see and I wonder what he thinks of this "Who's got it better than us?" business.
For that matter, how's Williams feeling these days? He was signed in late July, presumably to be the starting free safety, and a couple days later the Niners snookered him by re-signing Dashon Goldson. Williams had a bad day against Dallas in Week Two when Goldson was out, but played better as a strong safety in relief of Donte Whitner against Cincinnati and Philadelphia. Since both starting safeties returned to full health, however, he's been shoved to the background. A healthy scratch in favor of Colin Jones? That has to sting.
Offensively it was clear what the 49ers intentions were.
If only I could read the rest of the league as well as these guys... anyway, the 49ers had every intention of blowing the Cardinals out early, and heaven knows Arizona was asking for it the way they took care of the ball, but as has been the running theme all year, the 49ers, who otherwise had little difficulty moving the ball in accumulating 431 yards (their second-highest total of the season) and keeping it an NFL regulation game-high 44:16, were dreadful inside the opponent's 30.
Braylon Edwards (three drops) and Vernon Davis certainly weren't any help. Edwards clearly isn't right physically and was for all intents and purposes benched in the second half. Jim Harbaugh was hot after the game about some missed assignments and poor routes in the passing game and made it clear it wasn't Alex Smith who he was focusing his glare on. Smith's first quarter pass in the left corner of the end zone was a bit hard and about six inches high, but certainly a play a receiver like Edwards should make. You have to wonder if he'd even be out there if Joshua Morgan was healthy, but Harbaugh has nobody to blame for that but himself. If he didn't try to run up the score against Tampa Bay, he'd likely still have Morgan's ankle in one piece.
(If that criticism is too harsh, witness the final two series against Arizona, where Harbaugh, with a far slimmer lead than he enjoyed against the Buccaneers, elected to run the ball every play with Smith under center instead of playing rookie Colin Kaepernick and falling for the temptation of "getting him some work." Deny it all you want, but it was a hard lesson learned for the skipper.)
Davis, meanwhile, jumped for reasons only known to him on a slant pass that was aimed at his waist and wound up being knee-level, and was sloppy enough on a corner route that he couldn't keep his second foot in bounds on a deep ball that would've set the team up 1st-and-goal. He redeemed himself with a nice over-the-shoulder grab in the third quarter for his 34th career touchdown, which set a new franchise record for tight ends, passing Brent Jones.
Edwards' slack was picked up by second-year man Kyle Williams, who's shown all year that he can make the most of what limited opportunities he gets. Williams is quicker than fast, and not very big, but he's got good skills after the catch and may have the best hands on the team. Cardinals defensive coordinator Ray Horton foolishly tried using rookie Sam Acho, a converted defensive end (imagine Vic Fangio putting Aldon Smith on a slot receiver) on Williams and I'm sure he found the results anything but "cute." With Smith rapidly losing faith in Edwards, it won't be surprising to see Williams' playing time increase as he works to be the third option behind Michael Crabtree and Davis.
Speaking of Crabtree, how about the way he carved up Patrick Peterson, Arizona's first-round pick? Crab is no burner, but he was slick enough in his routes to get plenty of separation all game and would've had an easy touchdown in the second quarter had not Smith missed too high and far on a pass where Crabtree deked his way open by a good three yards. His highlight, of course, was an early third quarter reception for 29 yards in which he broke three tackles, and all in all it's the healthiest and most determined he's looked all year; close to the No. 1 receiver he was drafted to be. If he can sustain this form, the 49ers will be quite dangerous indeed.
But only if Smith gets more accurate. The last two games have been put squarely on his shoulders and the results were less than spectacular in the red zone. The offensive line protected him brilliantly, the receivers got open by and large, and still you had a throw that was too high, too hard, too wide, too something. Smith is playing well, but he's not playing great, and he knows it as well as anyone. If the 49ers are to challenge Green Bay in the playoffs, he'll need to be close to perfect.
Until then, we'll be left to enjoy blowouts against the crappy NFC West, wondering how it happened that the 49ers started just decimating people despite the red zone blahs.
Thursday's game at Baltimore -- a.k.a the "Harbowl," will offer a good test against one of the two proper teams left on the 49ers schedule, but to me the short rest spoils it. It's almost asking the impossible for the locals to win this one, and Harbaugh has made no secret of it, making more excuses to the media than I've ever heard from him. I think deep down he doesn't expect to win it.
For one thing, the Ravens are even better at taking the run away than his team; averaging a league-leading 3.3 yards allowed per carry. Justin Smith doesn't go into many games as the second-best defensive lineman, but will do so against Baltimore's Haloti Ngata -- whose matchup with Mike Iupati ought to be a doozy.
For another, I'd be pretty nervous about Ed Reed if I'm the Niners. He remains the premier ball-hawk in the game and I can see him baiting Smith into a pick on a seam route to Davis, making it look like the tight end is open when he's not. Or maybe it'll be like that Amari Spievey interception against Detroit, where Smith will be pressured around the edges and throw while moving up in the pocket, causing the ball to sail high right into Reed's mitts.
Mostly I worry about Ray Rice. As a running back alone he's probably the best the 49ers have faced all season, outside of Shady McCoy with the Eagles, but then you add the receiving dimension, the way they use him on screens and check-downs... well we're really going to see what NaVorro Bowman is made of in this one. I can't imagine them winning without him earning a game ball.
If the 49ers are to win, they will need to jump on Baltimore early, before the Ravens catch up to their tricks and the fatigue sets in. I expect Smith to be throwing early and often once more, to Crabtree especially, but also Davis and Delanie Walker. I do not think Frank Gore, who had 24 carries (which was too much by half) will be a factor, especially with rookie fullback Bruce Miller out with a concussion. The 49ers will run to keep the Ravens D honest, maybe pick up some short-yardage stuff and set up play-action plays, but the bread and butter will come with Smith in the shotgun.
The onus will be on the 49ers to build a two score lead by half before the short week and the jet lag and all that hits them. If they can turn the Ravens one-dimensional, if deep safety Dashon Goldson can keep Torrey Smith from killing them, if Bowman can do the job on Rice, if the tackles can block Terrell Suggs and Paul Kruger, and if Carlos Rogers can win his match-up in the slot with Anquan Boldin, the 49ers have a shot.
And even then they'll probably need Ted Ginn to make an impact in the return game and for David Akers to do a lot better than 50 percent.
Does all that sound pessimistic? It should. Don't blame me, I'm just taking my cues from the head coach. If the 49ers get Philadelphia/NY Giants/Tampa Bay Alex Smith, they have a shot. If they get the Detroit/Arizona version, they fly home 9-2 and still in good shape, but with maybe some doubts creeping in about the QB. We'll see.
The picks:
Green Bay at Detroit (+7): It's en vogue to like the Lions in this game, and maybe if it was a longer road trip for the Pack, I'd bite. The bottom line is I just don't trust Detroit yet, not after they gave up a billion points to the Panthers last week. I don't trust Matthew Stafford to avoid turnovers and I don't trust their special teams to not give up a big play to Randall Cobb. I just see too many scenarios where Aaron Rodgers and Co. get free points instead of the 80-yard drives the 49ers thrive at making opponents try. Packers 38, Lions 24
Miami at Dallas (-7): I'd LOVE to be wrong, but no, I don't see Reggie Bush and Matt Moore spoiling Thanksgiving in Dallas. The Cowboys offense is going too good right now and will be rightly chastened after nearly losing at Washington last week. Cowboys 27, Dolphins 16
San Francisco at Baltimore (-3): The Ravens have played up (or down) to their competition all year and are undefeated at home. I don't see a good reason for that to change on a short week with the Niners flying three time zones. I would've been more convincible -- maybe -- if it was a regular Sunday game. Ravens 23, 49ers 17
Carolina at Indianapolis (+4): Eventually, Cam Newton is gonna have to win a couple ballgames if he wants to win Rookie of the Year, right? Simply avoiding turnovers should be enough to get it done here. Panthers 27, Colts 17
Minnesota at Atlanta (-10): Minny without Adrian Peterson visiting the most "meh" good team in the NFL? Feel my goosebumps. I've got a good feeling about Toby Gerhart in this one because I'm biased and I like him. (I traded Anthony Dixon for him in "Madden"). Falcons 24, Vikings 17
Cleveland at Cincinnati (-8): The Bengals are on a two-game slide against the division heavies and need this game to stay in the playoff hunt. The Steelers and Ravens had little difficulty making inroads on their defense, but they should find Colt McCoy more to their liking. Bengals 26, Browns 7
Tampa Bay at Tennessee (-4): Every time you want to count the Titans out they win, so... Titans 23, Buccaneers 16
Arizona at St. Louis (0): I think Kevin Kolb is playing. I'm taking the Cardinals anyway. Cardinals 17, Rams 13
Buffalo at NY Jets (-8): Do you have any idea how unspeakably bad a team has to be to give the Jets eight points right now? Well, the Bills are worse. And they've lost Fred Jackson. Oy vey. Jets 23, Bills 10.
Houston at Jacksonville (+4): I trust the Texans running backs and defense more than I trust Blaine Gabbert or distrust Matt Leinart. Texans 20, Jaguars 13
Chicago at Oakland (-4): Darren McFadden is still out and the Raiders receivers are beat up as well. The Bears also have an injury situation you may have heard a thing or two about. Even with Caleb Hanie at the helm, I think the Bears play the smarter ballgame, doing enough of the little things and maybe getting a couple of turnovers for the upset. Chicago 17, Raiders 16
Washington at Seattle (-4): If the 49ers win and the Seahawks lose, the locals will clinch the NFC West. Well, I already picked against the Niners, so this won't make you happy either. Seahawks 20, Redskins 13
Denver at San Diego (-6): One coach really doesn't want to win and the other simply coaches like it. Which one applies to Norv Turner and which to John Fox? The beauty is that you have to ask. I wouldn't bet a nickel on this game. Chargers 20, Broncos 10
New England at Philadelphia (+3): If Vince Young plays, I like the Patriots by 30. If Mike Vick plays, I like Philly by seven. I think Young's playing. Oh, and a big eff you to Wes Welker for taking Monday night's game off against the Chiefs. Patriots 41, Eagles 10.
Pittsburgh at Kansas City (+11): How is this the Sunday night game? Don't we have flexes for this? I saw enough of Tyler Palko on Monday against New England, and the Steelers actually have a defense. Big Ben could beat these guys with no thumbs. Steelers 30, Chiefs 10
NY Giants at New Orleans (-7): A crap game on NBC and a good one on ESPN? What is this, bizarro world? Next you're gonna tell me Alex Smith is a top-10 QB and the Niners are a Super Bowl contender (Hey-O). I think the Giants play better when little is expected of them, and it's a homecoming for Eli Manning. Saints 27, Giants 24
The Power Poll:
1. Green Bay (10-0)
2. San Francisco (9-1)
3. Baltimore (7-3)
4. Pittsburgh (7-3)
5. New Orleans (7-3)
6. New England (7-3)
7. Detroit (7-3)
8. New York Giants (6-4)
9. Cincinnati (6-4)
10. Dallas (6-4)
11. Chicago (7-3)
12. Houston (7-3)
13. Oakland (6-4)
14. Atlanta (6-4)
15. Philadelphia (4-6)
16. Tennessee (5-5)
17. Denver (5-5)
18. New York Jets (5-5)
19. Miami (3-7)
20. San Diego (4-6)
21. Tampa Bay (4-6)
22. Seattle (4-6)
23. Washington (3-7)
24. Cleveland (4-6)
25. Buffalo (5-5)
26. Arizona (3-7)
27. Minnesota (2-8)
28. Carolina (2-8)
29. Jacksonville (3-7)
30. Kansas City (4-6)
31. St. Louis (2-8)
32. Indianapolis (0-10)
As a kid, I grew up reading Ira Miller's game stories and Monday morning report cards in the San Francisco Chronicle. This was during the glorious 80's, so after a few dominant seasons, Miller got spoiled along with the fans and started to expect perfection. He turned into a harsh grader, and I remember all too well how the Niners would cream some poor saps like the then-St. Louis Cardinals or the Atlanta Falcons like 34-13, and in the paper next day Miller would be giving them a "B-" here or a "C+" there. It got to the point where they were so good that it was just impossible to impress.
So imagine my surprise at how quickly the team has turned around its woebegone fortunes. In past seasons they would have had to play darn near perfectly to beat somebody by two touchdowns, but against the hapless Arizona Cardinals they won easily, 23-7, in a game where they played average at best on offense and below par on special teams.
The defense was spectacular, of course, but you knew all along it would be, didn't you? FOX analyst Brian Billick, when he wasn't butchering names left and right, relayed a quote from 49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio that the Niners wouldn't even have to bother disguising their coverages against overmatched Cardinals QB John Skelton because "he can't read them anyway." Fangio had suggested to us earlier in the week that Skelton pretty much has a radar lock on Larry Fitzgerald, so once the Niners took him out of the game with double teams -- as I predicted -- the game got pretty complicated for Skelton, who was just terrible.
The pass rush was still spotty, though better than in the previous game against the New York Giants, and the run defense gave up 80 yards rushing, mostly due to boredom than anything else, but you can't quibble with four turnovers and three interceptions. Patrick Willis continues to make his case for Defensive Player of the Year honors and picked up his first interception and fourth forced fumble of the season on back-to-back Arizona possessions in the first quarter. I would've liked to see young linemen Ricky Jean Francois and Demarcus Dobbs get some playing time in this one, and Larry Grant at linebacker in relief of Willis and NaVorro Bowman, but can't complain too much because the defense was only on the field a little over 15 minutes, so for them it was like having a half off anyway.
What was a little interesting to me is how Shawntae Spencer continues to be stuck in the doghouse. He was activated last Sunday as a precaution because starter Tarell Brown banged up his knee a bit in practice the Friday before -- fourth safety Madieu Williams was scratched in his place -- but he never got into the game at all, even in garbage time. Instead Tramaine Brock got some work as the fourth corner. To see a quality corner like Spencer, who's still in his prime, go from a starter to third-string so quickly, behind a rookie and another guy in Brock who was signed as an undrafted free agent last year, is startling to see and I wonder what he thinks of this "Who's got it better than us?" business.
For that matter, how's Williams feeling these days? He was signed in late July, presumably to be the starting free safety, and a couple days later the Niners snookered him by re-signing Dashon Goldson. Williams had a bad day against Dallas in Week Two when Goldson was out, but played better as a strong safety in relief of Donte Whitner against Cincinnati and Philadelphia. Since both starting safeties returned to full health, however, he's been shoved to the background. A healthy scratch in favor of Colin Jones? That has to sting.
Offensively it was clear what the 49ers intentions were.
My guess? 49ers come out throwing, hellbent for leather, trying to get a 20-point lead so they can rest some starters going into the Ravens game.
If only I could read the rest of the league as well as these guys... anyway, the 49ers had every intention of blowing the Cardinals out early, and heaven knows Arizona was asking for it the way they took care of the ball, but as has been the running theme all year, the 49ers, who otherwise had little difficulty moving the ball in accumulating 431 yards (their second-highest total of the season) and keeping it an NFL regulation game-high 44:16, were dreadful inside the opponent's 30.
Braylon Edwards (three drops) and Vernon Davis certainly weren't any help. Edwards clearly isn't right physically and was for all intents and purposes benched in the second half. Jim Harbaugh was hot after the game about some missed assignments and poor routes in the passing game and made it clear it wasn't Alex Smith who he was focusing his glare on. Smith's first quarter pass in the left corner of the end zone was a bit hard and about six inches high, but certainly a play a receiver like Edwards should make. You have to wonder if he'd even be out there if Joshua Morgan was healthy, but Harbaugh has nobody to blame for that but himself. If he didn't try to run up the score against Tampa Bay, he'd likely still have Morgan's ankle in one piece.
(If that criticism is too harsh, witness the final two series against Arizona, where Harbaugh, with a far slimmer lead than he enjoyed against the Buccaneers, elected to run the ball every play with Smith under center instead of playing rookie Colin Kaepernick and falling for the temptation of "getting him some work." Deny it all you want, but it was a hard lesson learned for the skipper.)
Davis, meanwhile, jumped for reasons only known to him on a slant pass that was aimed at his waist and wound up being knee-level, and was sloppy enough on a corner route that he couldn't keep his second foot in bounds on a deep ball that would've set the team up 1st-and-goal. He redeemed himself with a nice over-the-shoulder grab in the third quarter for his 34th career touchdown, which set a new franchise record for tight ends, passing Brent Jones.
Edwards' slack was picked up by second-year man Kyle Williams, who's shown all year that he can make the most of what limited opportunities he gets. Williams is quicker than fast, and not very big, but he's got good skills after the catch and may have the best hands on the team. Cardinals defensive coordinator Ray Horton foolishly tried using rookie Sam Acho, a converted defensive end (imagine Vic Fangio putting Aldon Smith on a slot receiver) on Williams and I'm sure he found the results anything but "cute." With Smith rapidly losing faith in Edwards, it won't be surprising to see Williams' playing time increase as he works to be the third option behind Michael Crabtree and Davis.
Speaking of Crabtree, how about the way he carved up Patrick Peterson, Arizona's first-round pick? Crab is no burner, but he was slick enough in his routes to get plenty of separation all game and would've had an easy touchdown in the second quarter had not Smith missed too high and far on a pass where Crabtree deked his way open by a good three yards. His highlight, of course, was an early third quarter reception for 29 yards in which he broke three tackles, and all in all it's the healthiest and most determined he's looked all year; close to the No. 1 receiver he was drafted to be. If he can sustain this form, the 49ers will be quite dangerous indeed.
But only if Smith gets more accurate. The last two games have been put squarely on his shoulders and the results were less than spectacular in the red zone. The offensive line protected him brilliantly, the receivers got open by and large, and still you had a throw that was too high, too hard, too wide, too something. Smith is playing well, but he's not playing great, and he knows it as well as anyone. If the 49ers are to challenge Green Bay in the playoffs, he'll need to be close to perfect.
Until then, we'll be left to enjoy blowouts against the crappy NFC West, wondering how it happened that the 49ers started just decimating people despite the red zone blahs.
Thursday's game at Baltimore -- a.k.a the "Harbowl," will offer a good test against one of the two proper teams left on the 49ers schedule, but to me the short rest spoils it. It's almost asking the impossible for the locals to win this one, and Harbaugh has made no secret of it, making more excuses to the media than I've ever heard from him. I think deep down he doesn't expect to win it.
For one thing, the Ravens are even better at taking the run away than his team; averaging a league-leading 3.3 yards allowed per carry. Justin Smith doesn't go into many games as the second-best defensive lineman, but will do so against Baltimore's Haloti Ngata -- whose matchup with Mike Iupati ought to be a doozy.
For another, I'd be pretty nervous about Ed Reed if I'm the Niners. He remains the premier ball-hawk in the game and I can see him baiting Smith into a pick on a seam route to Davis, making it look like the tight end is open when he's not. Or maybe it'll be like that Amari Spievey interception against Detroit, where Smith will be pressured around the edges and throw while moving up in the pocket, causing the ball to sail high right into Reed's mitts.
Mostly I worry about Ray Rice. As a running back alone he's probably the best the 49ers have faced all season, outside of Shady McCoy with the Eagles, but then you add the receiving dimension, the way they use him on screens and check-downs... well we're really going to see what NaVorro Bowman is made of in this one. I can't imagine them winning without him earning a game ball.
If the 49ers are to win, they will need to jump on Baltimore early, before the Ravens catch up to their tricks and the fatigue sets in. I expect Smith to be throwing early and often once more, to Crabtree especially, but also Davis and Delanie Walker. I do not think Frank Gore, who had 24 carries (which was too much by half) will be a factor, especially with rookie fullback Bruce Miller out with a concussion. The 49ers will run to keep the Ravens D honest, maybe pick up some short-yardage stuff and set up play-action plays, but the bread and butter will come with Smith in the shotgun.
The onus will be on the 49ers to build a two score lead by half before the short week and the jet lag and all that hits them. If they can turn the Ravens one-dimensional, if deep safety Dashon Goldson can keep Torrey Smith from killing them, if Bowman can do the job on Rice, if the tackles can block Terrell Suggs and Paul Kruger, and if Carlos Rogers can win his match-up in the slot with Anquan Boldin, the 49ers have a shot.
And even then they'll probably need Ted Ginn to make an impact in the return game and for David Akers to do a lot better than 50 percent.
Does all that sound pessimistic? It should. Don't blame me, I'm just taking my cues from the head coach. If the 49ers get Philadelphia/NY Giants/Tampa Bay Alex Smith, they have a shot. If they get the Detroit/Arizona version, they fly home 9-2 and still in good shape, but with maybe some doubts creeping in about the QB. We'll see.
The picks:
Green Bay at Detroit (+7): It's en vogue to like the Lions in this game, and maybe if it was a longer road trip for the Pack, I'd bite. The bottom line is I just don't trust Detroit yet, not after they gave up a billion points to the Panthers last week. I don't trust Matthew Stafford to avoid turnovers and I don't trust their special teams to not give up a big play to Randall Cobb. I just see too many scenarios where Aaron Rodgers and Co. get free points instead of the 80-yard drives the 49ers thrive at making opponents try. Packers 38, Lions 24
Miami at Dallas (-7): I'd LOVE to be wrong, but no, I don't see Reggie Bush and Matt Moore spoiling Thanksgiving in Dallas. The Cowboys offense is going too good right now and will be rightly chastened after nearly losing at Washington last week. Cowboys 27, Dolphins 16
San Francisco at Baltimore (-3): The Ravens have played up (or down) to their competition all year and are undefeated at home. I don't see a good reason for that to change on a short week with the Niners flying three time zones. I would've been more convincible -- maybe -- if it was a regular Sunday game. Ravens 23, 49ers 17
Carolina at Indianapolis (+4): Eventually, Cam Newton is gonna have to win a couple ballgames if he wants to win Rookie of the Year, right? Simply avoiding turnovers should be enough to get it done here. Panthers 27, Colts 17
Minnesota at Atlanta (-10): Minny without Adrian Peterson visiting the most "meh" good team in the NFL? Feel my goosebumps. I've got a good feeling about Toby Gerhart in this one because I'm biased and I like him. (I traded Anthony Dixon for him in "Madden"). Falcons 24, Vikings 17
Cleveland at Cincinnati (-8): The Bengals are on a two-game slide against the division heavies and need this game to stay in the playoff hunt. The Steelers and Ravens had little difficulty making inroads on their defense, but they should find Colt McCoy more to their liking. Bengals 26, Browns 7
Tampa Bay at Tennessee (-4): Every time you want to count the Titans out they win, so... Titans 23, Buccaneers 16
Arizona at St. Louis (0): I think Kevin Kolb is playing. I'm taking the Cardinals anyway. Cardinals 17, Rams 13
Buffalo at NY Jets (-8): Do you have any idea how unspeakably bad a team has to be to give the Jets eight points right now? Well, the Bills are worse. And they've lost Fred Jackson. Oy vey. Jets 23, Bills 10.
Houston at Jacksonville (+4): I trust the Texans running backs and defense more than I trust Blaine Gabbert or distrust Matt Leinart. Texans 20, Jaguars 13
Chicago at Oakland (-4): Darren McFadden is still out and the Raiders receivers are beat up as well. The Bears also have an injury situation you may have heard a thing or two about. Even with Caleb Hanie at the helm, I think the Bears play the smarter ballgame, doing enough of the little things and maybe getting a couple of turnovers for the upset. Chicago 17, Raiders 16
Washington at Seattle (-4): If the 49ers win and the Seahawks lose, the locals will clinch the NFC West. Well, I already picked against the Niners, so this won't make you happy either. Seahawks 20, Redskins 13
Denver at San Diego (-6): One coach really doesn't want to win and the other simply coaches like it. Which one applies to Norv Turner and which to John Fox? The beauty is that you have to ask. I wouldn't bet a nickel on this game. Chargers 20, Broncos 10
New England at Philadelphia (+3): If Vince Young plays, I like the Patriots by 30. If Mike Vick plays, I like Philly by seven. I think Young's playing. Oh, and a big eff you to Wes Welker for taking Monday night's game off against the Chiefs. Patriots 41, Eagles 10.
Pittsburgh at Kansas City (+11): How is this the Sunday night game? Don't we have flexes for this? I saw enough of Tyler Palko on Monday against New England, and the Steelers actually have a defense. Big Ben could beat these guys with no thumbs. Steelers 30, Chiefs 10
NY Giants at New Orleans (-7): A crap game on NBC and a good one on ESPN? What is this, bizarro world? Next you're gonna tell me Alex Smith is a top-10 QB and the Niners are a Super Bowl contender (Hey-O). I think the Giants play better when little is expected of them, and it's a homecoming for Eli Manning. Saints 27, Giants 24
The Power Poll:
1. Green Bay (10-0)
2. San Francisco (9-1)
3. Baltimore (7-3)
4. Pittsburgh (7-3)
5. New Orleans (7-3)
6. New England (7-3)
7. Detroit (7-3)
8. New York Giants (6-4)
9. Cincinnati (6-4)
10. Dallas (6-4)
11. Chicago (7-3)
12. Houston (7-3)
13. Oakland (6-4)
14. Atlanta (6-4)
15. Philadelphia (4-6)
16. Tennessee (5-5)
17. Denver (5-5)
18. New York Jets (5-5)
19. Miami (3-7)
20. San Diego (4-6)
21. Tampa Bay (4-6)
22. Seattle (4-6)
23. Washington (3-7)
24. Cleveland (4-6)
25. Buffalo (5-5)
26. Arizona (3-7)
27. Minnesota (2-8)
28. Carolina (2-8)
29. Jacksonville (3-7)
30. Kansas City (4-6)
31. St. Louis (2-8)
32. Indianapolis (0-10)
Friday, November 18, 2011
Offense Arrow Up, Defense Arrow Down for 49ers, a Sunday preview and so much more
The 49ers had a number of heroes against the Giants, some of whom were trumpeted to the rafters and others who went largely unnoticed. Sunday’s 27-20 triumph over New York was a landmark triumph for this team, not only because it finally got the attention of the national media based in the east coast – it was a nationally televised game against the team that plays in the number one media market – but also for the first time they scored in the mid-20’s (and it could’ve been higher) against a respectable defense without Frank Gore contributing heavily.
Make no mistake, the way the Giants played defense against the 49ers will be the norm, rather than the exception, going forward. One good passing game by Alex Smith (and I mean that in terms of yardage, he’s had plenty good games in terms of efficiency) is not going to change how opposing defenses view this team overnight. They’re going to have to prove it again and again. Defenses are gonna stack the box and make it difficult for Gore to run.
The important thing to realize is that this is nothing new. It’s true that Gore had five straight games of 100 yards rushing before the Giants game – where according to my Bodymedia monitor I got more exercise than he did – but all we need to do is go back to the first three games of the season when Gore was averaging a mere 2.5 yards-per-carry and some folks were wondering aloud whether that three-year extension the team gave him was a big mistake. Sure, it’s a lovely thought to think that the running game just up and improved because of the changes at right guard (Adam Snyder replacing Chilo Rachal) and fullback (Bruce Miller replacing Moran Norris), and while those guys have surely had a positive effect, the fact of the matter is the 49ers had the fortune of playing a succession of teams that are terrible at defending the run.
For Philadelphia and Detroit, I’ve written about this before. They play that reckless, gambling, “Wide Nine” defensive front, which is a defense that is hell bent on getting after the passer at the expense of giving up massive running lanes. It’s a defense that, theoretically, one would want to draw up against Green Bay or New England, perhaps even New Orleans. However using it against the 49ers just plays into their hands. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, lost their best run defender in defensive tackle Gerald McCoy early in the game, which severely compromised their defense. You’ll note that they haven’t exactly stopped anybody since the 49ers game. Cleveland, if not the least talented team in the NFL is at least in the top three, while Washington stopped caring a while back.
My point is that except for a four or five game scheduling anomaly in midseason, the way the Giants played the 49ers is hardly new, especially among 4-3 defenses. We saw it for most of the Mike Singletary era and even during Mike Nolan’s term. It will be on Smith to make the practice stop, and honestly I don’t know how many good games in a row he’ll have to have for them to. That being said, I agreed with what Braylon Edwards said during a Wednesday interview session about the 49ers showing in their last game that they could pass from the classic drop back offense and not just out of the play-action or run sets. Obviously Edwards was exaggerating somewhat as Smith has thrown plenty from shotgun in 3rd-and-long, in two-minute drills and in situations when the team has been trailing, but really this was the first time they relied on the passing game for a whole half not because they had to but because they wanted to, which Steve Young basically implored them to do last week on the radio.
Still, it’s worth noting that Smith didn’t complete a pass to starting receivers Braylon Edwards (who wasn’t running well at all) or Michael Crabtree in the last 35 minutes of the game. Really, the stars of the passing game were Delanie Walker and Ted Ginn, despite his disastrous drop that turned into an undeserved interception for Smith. Ginn made a couple of nice catches on the boundary and had a big third down grab early in the game. The 49ers wisely take advantage of defenses playing off Ginn with underneath routes, but you get the feeling that one of these days they’ll uncork a long one to him. What we do know is this group of tight ends and receivers – including Kyle Williams, who has a couple of packages per game – is as deep as the team’s had in ages, even without the injured Joshua Morgan.
Guards Adam Snyder and Mike Iupati both gave up a sack in the game, but otherwise the pass blocking was mostly sharp against a team that came into the game number one in the league in putting the quarterback into the turf. The run blocking looked mostly hopeless when Gore was involved, but I found it curious that Kendall Hunter was able to get off. Did the Giants have fewer in the box against him? No, not really. I think, just like the Cincinnati game, it was simply a matter of him having fresher, quicker legs and being able to find some room that a hobbled Gore could not. Hunter missed a chance of scoring a touchdown a series before he did. He had the whole right side of the field available on a cutback – with Smith as the lead blocker! – but instead he just cut back toward the right guard gap instead of all the way. Snyder redeemed himself for the sack he allowed by pulling very well on the counter play on the next series and fullback Bruce Miller sealed off a linebacker and Hunter had an easy 17-yard score for the winning points.
It’s a credit to the 49ers coaches – especially Running Backs Coach Tom Rathman – to see what was happening and protect Gore from himself in the second half. Giants end Jason Pierre-Paul hyper-extended Gore’s right knee during the second quarter, and as Gore explained afterward, he couldn’t really push off on the leg afterward. The truth of the matter though is he came into the game with a gimpy left ankle, so it’s not like he was feeling spry to begin with. Gore practiced on a limited basis on Thursday and Friday and declared himself ready to go for Sunday’s game, but it would be smart if the coaches sat him or at least really cut down on his workload. There’s another game coming up in four days and at this stage of his career there’s no way Gore can handle 40 carries in five days. Realistically, I’m expecting the carries to be split up something like 12 for Gore, 12 for Hunter and maybe 3 or 4 for Anthony Dixon, but personally I’d give Hunter 20, Dixon 10 and Gore a nice warm seat on the bench.
Defensively the 49ers didn’t play well at all against the Giants. Eli Manning had ample time to throw for the majority of the game and he was brilliant on all but two of his throws. The pass rush was lacking – Aldon Smith didn’t breathe on Eli – and the cornerbacks had a rough day, even Carlos Rogers who had two interceptions in the game. It may have looked like the Giants were picking on rookie Chris Culliver, but really he was getting worked on because of how the Niners were lining up on defense. New York was in their three receiver package most of the game and lined up their best guy, Hakeem Nicks, across from Tarell Brown on the left side. Naturally, Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio wasn’t in love with that matchup and protected Brown as much as he could by doubling Nicks with a safety. Culliver, meanwhile was on an island against Mario Manningham. The fact that the Giants game planned to put Nicks on Brown shows who they the better corner is. Again I ask when the coaches will give Shawntae Spencer a chance.
I’m not sure who gave a good account of themselves against the Giants outside of Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman. Yes, the front seven did a decent job against the run, but that’s nothing new and we take it for granted. Besides, New York was missing Ahmad Bradshaw. Justin Smith had that bat down at the end, but where was he most of the game? The safeties were poor and I have no idea why Dashon Goldson blitzed from 20 yards up the field on that 32-yard touchdown to Nicks in the fourth quarter. How long did he think Manning was going to hold onto the ball? That was a poorly designed blitz.
It’s true that Manning was sharp and that the Niners were their usual brilliant selves in the red zone (3-of-4 in not allowing a touchdown) but overall I think this game was as much of a step backward for the defense as it was a step forward for the offense, reminiscent of the way Tony Romo killed this secondary in the second half and overtime during week two and also of that Eagles game where Michael Vick and his fleet of little people effortlessly blazed down the field between the 20’s time and time again. To me, this is a bad omen should these guys face New York or Dallas again, let alone Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
On special teams there were a number of standouts. David Akers was a beast again, going 4-of-4 on field goals, including a 52-yarder. He’s now 5-for-5 on kicks of 50 yards or longer for the 49ers after never making more than two in any of his 12 seasons at Philadelphia. Andy Lee averaged 50.7 yards net on his three punts, with each of them gaining at least 46 yards of field position. Lastly, gunner C.J. Spillman drew a holding penalty on Lee’s final punt, which forced the Giants to start their final drive from 20 instead of the 30. That drive crapped out at 70 yards, you’ll notice. The 49ers continue to get attention around the league for Harbaugh, their defense, Frank Gore and Alex Smith’s resurgence, but their special teams continues to be by far their most dominating unit.
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Not buying the Cardinals
Several 49ers, most emphatically tackle Joe Staley, have said that there’s no way this will be a “trap game,” despite the Cardinals 3-6 record and the Thanksgiving “Harbaugh Bowl” at Baltimore just around the corner.
“This is a rivalry game for us,” said Staley. “We’re going to give it our best effort because they’re going to give it their best effort. These teams always give everything they have against each other.”
Well, it’s a noble idea in theory, but I don't know if the Cardinals gave it their best effort in either of their blowout losses to a 6-10 49ers team last year. The 49ers won 27-6 at Arizona on a Monday Night game in late November and had over 260 yards rushing in that one. In the regular season finale at San Francisco, with interim coach Jim Tomsula patrolling the sidelines, they won 38-7, with Alex Smith throwing for 276 yards and two touchdowns.
Yes, I do think the Cardinals will be more competitive in Sunday's game at Candlestick, but let's be clear, this should still be a mismatch. Their offensive line is in shambles and their defensive line doesn't present much of a pass rush. The 49ers should dominate the line of scrimmage. Throw in a double-team against Larry Fitzgerald and make sure there rookie Patrick Peterson doesn't break a big return and there isn't a whole lot else the Cardinals can do.
With Kevin Kolb still ailing, John Skelton is expected to start his third straight game for the Cardinals. He's won his last two starts, completing 41-of-75 passes for 537 yards, with four touchdowns, two interceptions and a 84.1 passer rating.
“He’s got good arm talent,” said Fangio. “This guy can throw the ball. He’s got an easy release. He’s got a strong arm. Kind of reminds me of [Ravens QB Joe] Flacco a little bit with his arm strength and how easy the ball comes out. His feet don’t have to be set. He can still get a lot of steam on the ball. Throws a good deep ball, and in the last couple of weeks he’s fallen in love with Fitzgerald, which is smart on his part. So, I’ve been impressed with the guy.”
We’ll all get a chance to be impressed by him on Sunday, but consider me skeptical.
I continue to think that the 49ers, if they have any plans at all of winning at Baltimore on Thursday, need to rest some of their front line guys. Reserve tackle Alex Boone should play a few series to give starters Joe Staley and Anthony Davis a blow, and backup guard Chilo Rachal can rotate in as well, to give Iupati and Adam Snyder a rest. On defense Larry Grant can sub in to give inside Bowman and Willis a breather, and young linemen Ricky Jean Francois and Demarcus Dobbs can relieve Justin Smith and Ray McDonald.
The 49ers have to be smart here and use their depth. They’ve got a bunch of players who are basically cheerleaders on the sidelines except for special teams plays. It’s about time they were utilized so that the starters can get past this two game stretch in one piece.
Naturally, Harbaugh isn’t subscribing to my theory and even if he was, he wouldn’t tell me. “We’re not saving anything for the swim back,” he responded to my question, which made me think of that dumb Ethan Hawk movie “Gattaca.”
Fangio, meanwhile, revealed a bit more. “We’re treating this like a normal game,” he said, “But if we were to think along those lines, it would be for the second game.”
The Niners taking their lumps and treating the Harbaugh Bowl as a scheduled loss? I don’t see it.
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The 49ers and Awards
So far Lee is the only 49er leading his position in Pro Bowl voting, which has caused some anger among the fans. The Pro Bowl is the meaningless All-Star game in all of sports and while everyone wants to be named to the team (mostly for incentive reasons) nobody wants to actually play. In fact, now that the game has been moved to the week before the Super Bowl instead of the week after, nobody should want their guys to be playing in that game because it means they’re not at the Big Game. Anyway, the thing to remember is that other team’s fans aren’t going to be objective and care about your players and you’re not going to be objective and care about theirs, so who cares about the voting?
Here are the guys I think deserve to go for the 49ers: Andy Lee, David Akers, Brian Jennings, Blake Costanzo, Patrick Willis, Carlos Rogers and Justin Smith.
Seven’s a pretty good number, right?
Somehow I’m thinking it won’t satisfy you. So let’s look at why the other guys miss the cut.
NaVorro Bowman: Having a sensational year, but you only get three ILBs. Urlacher and Willis are mortal locks. Will Bowman beat out guys like Desmond Bishop, London Fletcher and James Laurinitis? I doubt it. I think he may get in as an alternate if Bishop plays in the Super Bowl, as expected, but don’t rule out Fletcher taking that last spot. Bowman’s only in his second year, so let him do it again to cement his reputation.
Frank Gore: Only three backs go, and those three should be Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy and Matt Forte.
Alex Smith: No, no, a thousand times no. Rodgers, Manning and then take your pick between Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford, etc. It’s a stat thing, not a “how well you’re playing” thing. Like Bowman, Smith needs to do it more than one year.
Vernon Davis: He didn’t get in last year and his numbers are far worse now. Witten will start, with Jermichael Finley or Tony Gonzalez getting the other spot.
Mike Iupati: I can’t think of good guards at the moment, so maybe he’s got a shot. Still, he’s a young guy so maybe he’s a year away. He’s probably got the best shot of anyone on this list.
While we’re here, let’s cut out the silly chatter about Justin Smith being an MVP candidate. I know Harbaugh said it in his postgame press conference and Peter King had Smith in fourth place on his list, but let’s be serious. First of all, the engraver already put Rodgers’ name on the trophy. Secondly, Smith is not even the MVP of his own defense let alone the league. He’s a great player, a good leader, but let’s dial it down a notch. I can see Willis possibly winning a Defensive Player of the Year award, unless the voters go nuts over DeMarcus Ware or Jason Allen’s sack totals.
Also, no Alex Smith does not deserve to be a Comeback Player of the Year, for the same reason that Giants pitcher Ryan Vogelsong didn’t. For them to be qualified, they would have had to be good at some point in the first place and they weren’t. If Smith were coming back from a disease, I could see it, but otherwise no (although one wag in the media trailer said he “overcame Mike Nolan.”
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Not Giving A Shift
After being penalized twice in previous games for simulating the snap on shifts along the offensive line, the 49ers gained a first down on Sunday by drawing an offside from the Giants during a late Walker shift on a third down play. Harbaugh denied that the team is doing anything out of the ordinary, saying shifts are a regular part of football, but let’s be serious for a second.
We’ve all watched a million games. Even if you can’t describe it verbally, you can tell when something is off. You watch guys play basketball long enough and you can spot the hitch in their release or follow through on a free throw and predict whether it’s going to go in or not. The same thing with a tennis serve. If the movement looks off, then usually it’s going to lead to a fault. The way the 49ers are shifting doesn’t pass the eye test. The movements are sudden, and jerky. There’s a twitch. It looks for all the world like a false start, designed to get the defense to react. Also, the shift comes unusually late in the play clock. Something about it just seems off to you when you see it, and your instincts aren’t wrong.
“It’s cute, and the league has said it's a legal cute play,” said Cardinals defensive coordinator Ray Horton. “So kudos to them for having cute plays in.”
Expect Horton to blow his lid if his guys get drawn off-side on one of these plays and Harbaugh to lose his mind if the flag goes against the Niners. The simple solution would be to just shift normally like everyone else does, but Harbaugh likes having enemies, real or imagined. He’s just wired that way.
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Week 11 Picks:
I had the Jets yesterday, so I’m already off to a great start. I’m not even keeping track anymore, my record is so depressing. I know the Niners and nothing else.
Carolina at Detroit (-7): Lions better treat this game like their season is on the line, because it is. Lions 27, Panthers
Jacksonville at Cleveland (+1): I love the Jags here, but that's because I love anybody against Cleveland. Jaguars 16, Browns 10
Tampa Bay at Green Bay (-15): The Bucs have completely fallen apart and Raheem Morris is showing his youth and inexperience with the media. We might have another Jim Mora Jr. situation on our hands. Also: The Packers are very good. Packers 38, Buccaneers 14
Buffalo at Miami (-1): Doesn't it feel like these teams should have each other's records? Dolphins 23, Bills 16
Oakland at Minnesota (+1): What a quandary. On one hand the Raiders gave up a billion rushing yards to Denver. On the other, short rest hasn't been good to teams this season. Eh, what the heck, Minny's corners are all hurt. Raiders 24, Vikings 20
Dallas at Washington (+8): Redskins will try hard just this once, for the sake of next season's ticket sales. Cowboys 23, Redskins 17
Cincinnati at Baltimore (-7): A.J. Green out for Cincy, Ray Lewis out for Baltimore. Bigger loss for the Bengals. Ravens 23, Bengals 13
Seattle at St. Louis (-3): I believe the Seahawks entire offensive line went on IR this week. That can't be good. Rams 17, Seahawks 10
Arizona at San Francisco (-10): My guess? 49ers come out throwing, hellbent for leather, trying to get a 20-point lead so they can rest some starters going into the Ravens game. 49ers 30, Cardinals 17
Tennessee at Atlanta (-7): Is it me or do the Titans either get blown out or win outright? An upset pick because why not? Titans 23, Falcons 20
San Diego at Chicago (-4): The commish of my fantasy league offered me a trade of Ryan Matthews for Shonn Greene hours before Thursday's game, which I happily accepted. Greene got injured three carries into the ballgame. What the football gods have taken away from the team I root for, they've generously bestowed upon my fantasy team. Bears 30, Chargers 23
Philadelphia at NY Giants (-6): I've got the solution to the Eagles problems. Fire Andy Reid and defensive coordinator Juan Castillo. Hire offensive coordinator Marty Morhinweg as the new coach and Reid as the new defensive coordinator. Boom. You're welcome. Giants 27, Eagles 13
Kansas City at New England (-15): Pats should start Brian Hoyer just to be sporting. Another classic tilt for ESPN. Patriots 41, Chiefs 3
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Power Poll:
1. Green Bay (9-0)
2. San Francisco (8-1)
3. New York Giants (6-3)
4. Baltimore (6-3)
5. New Orleans (7-3)
6. Houston (7-3)
7. Pittsburgh (6-3)
8. New England (6-3)
9. Chicago (6-3)
10. Cincinnati (6-3)
11. Detroit (6-3)
12. Dallas (5-4)
13. Oakland (5-4)
14. Atlanta (5-4)
15. Tennessee (5-4)
16. San Diego (4-5)
17. Denver (5-5)
18. NY Jets (5-5)
19. Buffalo (5-4)
20. Tampa Bay (4-5)
21. Miami (2-7)
22. Arizona (3-6)
23. Jacksonville (3-6)
24. Seattle (3-6)
25. Minnesota (2-7)
26. Carolina (2-7)
27. Washington (3-6)
28. St. Louis (2-7)
29. Cleveland (3-6)
30. Kansas City (4-5)
31. Indianapolis (0-10)
4,582,593. Philadelphia (3-6)
Make no mistake, the way the Giants played defense against the 49ers will be the norm, rather than the exception, going forward. One good passing game by Alex Smith (and I mean that in terms of yardage, he’s had plenty good games in terms of efficiency) is not going to change how opposing defenses view this team overnight. They’re going to have to prove it again and again. Defenses are gonna stack the box and make it difficult for Gore to run.
The important thing to realize is that this is nothing new. It’s true that Gore had five straight games of 100 yards rushing before the Giants game – where according to my Bodymedia monitor I got more exercise than he did – but all we need to do is go back to the first three games of the season when Gore was averaging a mere 2.5 yards-per-carry and some folks were wondering aloud whether that three-year extension the team gave him was a big mistake. Sure, it’s a lovely thought to think that the running game just up and improved because of the changes at right guard (Adam Snyder replacing Chilo Rachal) and fullback (Bruce Miller replacing Moran Norris), and while those guys have surely had a positive effect, the fact of the matter is the 49ers had the fortune of playing a succession of teams that are terrible at defending the run.
For Philadelphia and Detroit, I’ve written about this before. They play that reckless, gambling, “Wide Nine” defensive front, which is a defense that is hell bent on getting after the passer at the expense of giving up massive running lanes. It’s a defense that, theoretically, one would want to draw up against Green Bay or New England, perhaps even New Orleans. However using it against the 49ers just plays into their hands. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, lost their best run defender in defensive tackle Gerald McCoy early in the game, which severely compromised their defense. You’ll note that they haven’t exactly stopped anybody since the 49ers game. Cleveland, if not the least talented team in the NFL is at least in the top three, while Washington stopped caring a while back.
My point is that except for a four or five game scheduling anomaly in midseason, the way the Giants played the 49ers is hardly new, especially among 4-3 defenses. We saw it for most of the Mike Singletary era and even during Mike Nolan’s term. It will be on Smith to make the practice stop, and honestly I don’t know how many good games in a row he’ll have to have for them to. That being said, I agreed with what Braylon Edwards said during a Wednesday interview session about the 49ers showing in their last game that they could pass from the classic drop back offense and not just out of the play-action or run sets. Obviously Edwards was exaggerating somewhat as Smith has thrown plenty from shotgun in 3rd-and-long, in two-minute drills and in situations when the team has been trailing, but really this was the first time they relied on the passing game for a whole half not because they had to but because they wanted to, which Steve Young basically implored them to do last week on the radio.
Still, it’s worth noting that Smith didn’t complete a pass to starting receivers Braylon Edwards (who wasn’t running well at all) or Michael Crabtree in the last 35 minutes of the game. Really, the stars of the passing game were Delanie Walker and Ted Ginn, despite his disastrous drop that turned into an undeserved interception for Smith. Ginn made a couple of nice catches on the boundary and had a big third down grab early in the game. The 49ers wisely take advantage of defenses playing off Ginn with underneath routes, but you get the feeling that one of these days they’ll uncork a long one to him. What we do know is this group of tight ends and receivers – including Kyle Williams, who has a couple of packages per game – is as deep as the team’s had in ages, even without the injured Joshua Morgan.
Guards Adam Snyder and Mike Iupati both gave up a sack in the game, but otherwise the pass blocking was mostly sharp against a team that came into the game number one in the league in putting the quarterback into the turf. The run blocking looked mostly hopeless when Gore was involved, but I found it curious that Kendall Hunter was able to get off. Did the Giants have fewer in the box against him? No, not really. I think, just like the Cincinnati game, it was simply a matter of him having fresher, quicker legs and being able to find some room that a hobbled Gore could not. Hunter missed a chance of scoring a touchdown a series before he did. He had the whole right side of the field available on a cutback – with Smith as the lead blocker! – but instead he just cut back toward the right guard gap instead of all the way. Snyder redeemed himself for the sack he allowed by pulling very well on the counter play on the next series and fullback Bruce Miller sealed off a linebacker and Hunter had an easy 17-yard score for the winning points.
It’s a credit to the 49ers coaches – especially Running Backs Coach Tom Rathman – to see what was happening and protect Gore from himself in the second half. Giants end Jason Pierre-Paul hyper-extended Gore’s right knee during the second quarter, and as Gore explained afterward, he couldn’t really push off on the leg afterward. The truth of the matter though is he came into the game with a gimpy left ankle, so it’s not like he was feeling spry to begin with. Gore practiced on a limited basis on Thursday and Friday and declared himself ready to go for Sunday’s game, but it would be smart if the coaches sat him or at least really cut down on his workload. There’s another game coming up in four days and at this stage of his career there’s no way Gore can handle 40 carries in five days. Realistically, I’m expecting the carries to be split up something like 12 for Gore, 12 for Hunter and maybe 3 or 4 for Anthony Dixon, but personally I’d give Hunter 20, Dixon 10 and Gore a nice warm seat on the bench.
Defensively the 49ers didn’t play well at all against the Giants. Eli Manning had ample time to throw for the majority of the game and he was brilliant on all but two of his throws. The pass rush was lacking – Aldon Smith didn’t breathe on Eli – and the cornerbacks had a rough day, even Carlos Rogers who had two interceptions in the game. It may have looked like the Giants were picking on rookie Chris Culliver, but really he was getting worked on because of how the Niners were lining up on defense. New York was in their three receiver package most of the game and lined up their best guy, Hakeem Nicks, across from Tarell Brown on the left side. Naturally, Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio wasn’t in love with that matchup and protected Brown as much as he could by doubling Nicks with a safety. Culliver, meanwhile was on an island against Mario Manningham. The fact that the Giants game planned to put Nicks on Brown shows who they the better corner is. Again I ask when the coaches will give Shawntae Spencer a chance.
I’m not sure who gave a good account of themselves against the Giants outside of Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman. Yes, the front seven did a decent job against the run, but that’s nothing new and we take it for granted. Besides, New York was missing Ahmad Bradshaw. Justin Smith had that bat down at the end, but where was he most of the game? The safeties were poor and I have no idea why Dashon Goldson blitzed from 20 yards up the field on that 32-yard touchdown to Nicks in the fourth quarter. How long did he think Manning was going to hold onto the ball? That was a poorly designed blitz.
It’s true that Manning was sharp and that the Niners were their usual brilliant selves in the red zone (3-of-4 in not allowing a touchdown) but overall I think this game was as much of a step backward for the defense as it was a step forward for the offense, reminiscent of the way Tony Romo killed this secondary in the second half and overtime during week two and also of that Eagles game where Michael Vick and his fleet of little people effortlessly blazed down the field between the 20’s time and time again. To me, this is a bad omen should these guys face New York or Dallas again, let alone Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
On special teams there were a number of standouts. David Akers was a beast again, going 4-of-4 on field goals, including a 52-yarder. He’s now 5-for-5 on kicks of 50 yards or longer for the 49ers after never making more than two in any of his 12 seasons at Philadelphia. Andy Lee averaged 50.7 yards net on his three punts, with each of them gaining at least 46 yards of field position. Lastly, gunner C.J. Spillman drew a holding penalty on Lee’s final punt, which forced the Giants to start their final drive from 20 instead of the 30. That drive crapped out at 70 yards, you’ll notice. The 49ers continue to get attention around the league for Harbaugh, their defense, Frank Gore and Alex Smith’s resurgence, but their special teams continues to be by far their most dominating unit.
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Not buying the Cardinals
Several 49ers, most emphatically tackle Joe Staley, have said that there’s no way this will be a “trap game,” despite the Cardinals 3-6 record and the Thanksgiving “Harbaugh Bowl” at Baltimore just around the corner.
“This is a rivalry game for us,” said Staley. “We’re going to give it our best effort because they’re going to give it their best effort. These teams always give everything they have against each other.”
Well, it’s a noble idea in theory, but I don't know if the Cardinals gave it their best effort in either of their blowout losses to a 6-10 49ers team last year. The 49ers won 27-6 at Arizona on a Monday Night game in late November and had over 260 yards rushing in that one. In the regular season finale at San Francisco, with interim coach Jim Tomsula patrolling the sidelines, they won 38-7, with Alex Smith throwing for 276 yards and two touchdowns.
Yes, I do think the Cardinals will be more competitive in Sunday's game at Candlestick, but let's be clear, this should still be a mismatch. Their offensive line is in shambles and their defensive line doesn't present much of a pass rush. The 49ers should dominate the line of scrimmage. Throw in a double-team against Larry Fitzgerald and make sure there rookie Patrick Peterson doesn't break a big return and there isn't a whole lot else the Cardinals can do.
With Kevin Kolb still ailing, John Skelton is expected to start his third straight game for the Cardinals. He's won his last two starts, completing 41-of-75 passes for 537 yards, with four touchdowns, two interceptions and a 84.1 passer rating.
“He’s got good arm talent,” said Fangio. “This guy can throw the ball. He’s got an easy release. He’s got a strong arm. Kind of reminds me of [Ravens QB Joe] Flacco a little bit with his arm strength and how easy the ball comes out. His feet don’t have to be set. He can still get a lot of steam on the ball. Throws a good deep ball, and in the last couple of weeks he’s fallen in love with Fitzgerald, which is smart on his part. So, I’ve been impressed with the guy.”
We’ll all get a chance to be impressed by him on Sunday, but consider me skeptical.
I continue to think that the 49ers, if they have any plans at all of winning at Baltimore on Thursday, need to rest some of their front line guys. Reserve tackle Alex Boone should play a few series to give starters Joe Staley and Anthony Davis a blow, and backup guard Chilo Rachal can rotate in as well, to give Iupati and Adam Snyder a rest. On defense Larry Grant can sub in to give inside Bowman and Willis a breather, and young linemen Ricky Jean Francois and Demarcus Dobbs can relieve Justin Smith and Ray McDonald.
The 49ers have to be smart here and use their depth. They’ve got a bunch of players who are basically cheerleaders on the sidelines except for special teams plays. It’s about time they were utilized so that the starters can get past this two game stretch in one piece.
Naturally, Harbaugh isn’t subscribing to my theory and even if he was, he wouldn’t tell me. “We’re not saving anything for the swim back,” he responded to my question, which made me think of that dumb Ethan Hawk movie “Gattaca.”
Fangio, meanwhile, revealed a bit more. “We’re treating this like a normal game,” he said, “But if we were to think along those lines, it would be for the second game.”
The Niners taking their lumps and treating the Harbaugh Bowl as a scheduled loss? I don’t see it.
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The 49ers and Awards
So far Lee is the only 49er leading his position in Pro Bowl voting, which has caused some anger among the fans. The Pro Bowl is the meaningless All-Star game in all of sports and while everyone wants to be named to the team (mostly for incentive reasons) nobody wants to actually play. In fact, now that the game has been moved to the week before the Super Bowl instead of the week after, nobody should want their guys to be playing in that game because it means they’re not at the Big Game. Anyway, the thing to remember is that other team’s fans aren’t going to be objective and care about your players and you’re not going to be objective and care about theirs, so who cares about the voting?
Here are the guys I think deserve to go for the 49ers: Andy Lee, David Akers, Brian Jennings, Blake Costanzo, Patrick Willis, Carlos Rogers and Justin Smith.
Seven’s a pretty good number, right?
Somehow I’m thinking it won’t satisfy you. So let’s look at why the other guys miss the cut.
NaVorro Bowman: Having a sensational year, but you only get three ILBs. Urlacher and Willis are mortal locks. Will Bowman beat out guys like Desmond Bishop, London Fletcher and James Laurinitis? I doubt it. I think he may get in as an alternate if Bishop plays in the Super Bowl, as expected, but don’t rule out Fletcher taking that last spot. Bowman’s only in his second year, so let him do it again to cement his reputation.
Frank Gore: Only three backs go, and those three should be Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy and Matt Forte.
Alex Smith: No, no, a thousand times no. Rodgers, Manning and then take your pick between Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford, etc. It’s a stat thing, not a “how well you’re playing” thing. Like Bowman, Smith needs to do it more than one year.
Vernon Davis: He didn’t get in last year and his numbers are far worse now. Witten will start, with Jermichael Finley or Tony Gonzalez getting the other spot.
Mike Iupati: I can’t think of good guards at the moment, so maybe he’s got a shot. Still, he’s a young guy so maybe he’s a year away. He’s probably got the best shot of anyone on this list.
While we’re here, let’s cut out the silly chatter about Justin Smith being an MVP candidate. I know Harbaugh said it in his postgame press conference and Peter King had Smith in fourth place on his list, but let’s be serious. First of all, the engraver already put Rodgers’ name on the trophy. Secondly, Smith is not even the MVP of his own defense let alone the league. He’s a great player, a good leader, but let’s dial it down a notch. I can see Willis possibly winning a Defensive Player of the Year award, unless the voters go nuts over DeMarcus Ware or Jason Allen’s sack totals.
Also, no Alex Smith does not deserve to be a Comeback Player of the Year, for the same reason that Giants pitcher Ryan Vogelsong didn’t. For them to be qualified, they would have had to be good at some point in the first place and they weren’t. If Smith were coming back from a disease, I could see it, but otherwise no (although one wag in the media trailer said he “overcame Mike Nolan.”
________________________________________________________________________
Not Giving A Shift
After being penalized twice in previous games for simulating the snap on shifts along the offensive line, the 49ers gained a first down on Sunday by drawing an offside from the Giants during a late Walker shift on a third down play. Harbaugh denied that the team is doing anything out of the ordinary, saying shifts are a regular part of football, but let’s be serious for a second.
We’ve all watched a million games. Even if you can’t describe it verbally, you can tell when something is off. You watch guys play basketball long enough and you can spot the hitch in their release or follow through on a free throw and predict whether it’s going to go in or not. The same thing with a tennis serve. If the movement looks off, then usually it’s going to lead to a fault. The way the 49ers are shifting doesn’t pass the eye test. The movements are sudden, and jerky. There’s a twitch. It looks for all the world like a false start, designed to get the defense to react. Also, the shift comes unusually late in the play clock. Something about it just seems off to you when you see it, and your instincts aren’t wrong.
“It’s cute, and the league has said it's a legal cute play,” said Cardinals defensive coordinator Ray Horton. “So kudos to them for having cute plays in.”
Expect Horton to blow his lid if his guys get drawn off-side on one of these plays and Harbaugh to lose his mind if the flag goes against the Niners. The simple solution would be to just shift normally like everyone else does, but Harbaugh likes having enemies, real or imagined. He’s just wired that way.
_____________________________________________________________________________
Week 11 Picks:
I had the Jets yesterday, so I’m already off to a great start. I’m not even keeping track anymore, my record is so depressing. I know the Niners and nothing else.
Carolina at Detroit (-7): Lions better treat this game like their season is on the line, because it is. Lions 27, Panthers
Jacksonville at Cleveland (+1): I love the Jags here, but that's because I love anybody against Cleveland. Jaguars 16, Browns 10
Tampa Bay at Green Bay (-15): The Bucs have completely fallen apart and Raheem Morris is showing his youth and inexperience with the media. We might have another Jim Mora Jr. situation on our hands. Also: The Packers are very good. Packers 38, Buccaneers 14
Buffalo at Miami (-1): Doesn't it feel like these teams should have each other's records? Dolphins 23, Bills 16
Oakland at Minnesota (+1): What a quandary. On one hand the Raiders gave up a billion rushing yards to Denver. On the other, short rest hasn't been good to teams this season. Eh, what the heck, Minny's corners are all hurt. Raiders 24, Vikings 20
Dallas at Washington (+8): Redskins will try hard just this once, for the sake of next season's ticket sales. Cowboys 23, Redskins 17
Cincinnati at Baltimore (-7): A.J. Green out for Cincy, Ray Lewis out for Baltimore. Bigger loss for the Bengals. Ravens 23, Bengals 13
Seattle at St. Louis (-3): I believe the Seahawks entire offensive line went on IR this week. That can't be good. Rams 17, Seahawks 10
Arizona at San Francisco (-10): My guess? 49ers come out throwing, hellbent for leather, trying to get a 20-point lead so they can rest some starters going into the Ravens game. 49ers 30, Cardinals 17
Tennessee at Atlanta (-7): Is it me or do the Titans either get blown out or win outright? An upset pick because why not? Titans 23, Falcons 20
San Diego at Chicago (-4): The commish of my fantasy league offered me a trade of Ryan Matthews for Shonn Greene hours before Thursday's game, which I happily accepted. Greene got injured three carries into the ballgame. What the football gods have taken away from the team I root for, they've generously bestowed upon my fantasy team. Bears 30, Chargers 23
Philadelphia at NY Giants (-6): I've got the solution to the Eagles problems. Fire Andy Reid and defensive coordinator Juan Castillo. Hire offensive coordinator Marty Morhinweg as the new coach and Reid as the new defensive coordinator. Boom. You're welcome. Giants 27, Eagles 13
Kansas City at New England (-15): Pats should start Brian Hoyer just to be sporting. Another classic tilt for ESPN. Patriots 41, Chiefs 3
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Power Poll:
1. Green Bay (9-0)
2. San Francisco (8-1)
3. New York Giants (6-3)
4. Baltimore (6-3)
5. New Orleans (7-3)
6. Houston (7-3)
7. Pittsburgh (6-3)
8. New England (6-3)
9. Chicago (6-3)
10. Cincinnati (6-3)
11. Detroit (6-3)
12. Dallas (5-4)
13. Oakland (5-4)
14. Atlanta (5-4)
15. Tennessee (5-4)
16. San Diego (4-5)
17. Denver (5-5)
18. NY Jets (5-5)
19. Buffalo (5-4)
20. Tampa Bay (4-5)
21. Miami (2-7)
22. Arizona (3-6)
23. Jacksonville (3-6)
24. Seattle (3-6)
25. Minnesota (2-7)
26. Carolina (2-7)
27. Washington (3-6)
28. St. Louis (2-7)
29. Cleveland (3-6)
30. Kansas City (4-5)
31. Indianapolis (0-10)
4,582,593. Philadelphia (3-6)
Friday, November 11, 2011
Time To Change The Narrative With Smith; Week 10 Picks
There's a saying that goes "Opinions are like assholes -- everyone has one, and they all stink."
A peculiarly funky aroma has been associated with San Francisco 49ers quarterback Alex Smith for some, and no matter how much he does to wipe away the past and wash his hands of it, that shitty smell won't escape him in the eyes of critics.
Steve Young, the quarterback here a generation ago, is fond of saying that "perception is reality," and in the NFL the perception, by and large is that the 7-1 Niners have been winning in spite of Smith rather than because of him. It doesn't matter if you tune in to east coast-based ESPN or the NFL Network out of Los Angeles or any point in between. The 49ers are thought of a team with a ferocious defense, a physical running game, a brilliant coach and a liability under center.
"I think (49ers coach Jim) Harbaugh is doing as good a job as there is in this league with what he has," remarked Greg Cosell, an analyst with NFL Films, during an interview with KNBR 680, the local sportstalk monolith. "And you know how I feel about Alex Smith. It’s not personal knock on Alex Smith. Why do you think Jim Harbaugh is doing what he’s doing? He’s telling you –- I don’t have to tell you –- he’s telling you what he thinks of Alex Smith. He’s managing him."
Cosell is alluding to the fact that the 49ers are 30th in the league in passing yards and 32nd -- dead last -- in pass attempts. Despite playing virtually every snap through eight games, Smith is not on pace to pass for even 3,000 yards in an age where 4,000 is ho-hum and some of his contemporaries are threatening to eclipse 5,000. In their most recent game, a 19-11 win at Washington, Smith completed 17-of-24 passes for 200 yards -- and that was his second most prolific game of the season as far as yardage was concerned.
For example of how those numbers resonate with people, here are a couple of sections from Lowell Cohn's column after that game in the Santa Rosa Press Democrat:
So far, so good. It is a myth that Smith has improved leaps and bounds under Harbaugh's tutelage. When it comes to 49ers who've taken a gigantic step forward in 2011 he's well behind guys like Mike Iupati, NaVorro Bowman, Anthony Davis, Dashon Goldson, Ray McDonald, Adam Snyder, Delanie Walker and Ahmad Brooks. Few seem to remember that Smith combined for eight touchdown passes to one interception over his final six appearances in 2010 and that included in that stretch was a game against the Seattle Seahawks on Dec. 12 where he posted the highest rating (130.9) of his career. So Cohn is technically right here, in an ironic sense.
Then he goes off the rails...
Smith is fifth in completion percentage at 64.1. The combined won-loss records of the four passers ahead of him (Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Ryan Fitzpatrick) and the one behind (Ben Roethlisberger) is 30-12.
Smith is sixth in passer rating at 97.3. The combined won-loss records of the five passers ahead of him (Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Matthew Stafford and Eli Manning) and the three behind him (Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub and Fitzpatrick) is 48-19.
I'd say Smith has the numbers of a winning quarterback.
While this paragraph might suggest otherwise, no, Lowell Cohn does not play fantasy football. He is judging quarterback play through the prism of completions and yards, which is akin to judging a baseball player by batting average and RBIs. Beck had nearly twice as many attempts (47) to Smith's 24 in the game and averaged 5.4 yards-per-attempt to Smith's 8.3. Cohn also neglects to mention that Beck's touchdown pass came with 1:10 left and the 49ers nursing a 19-3 lead, but I suppose in his warped view this was an indication that he was more "clutch" than Smith by virtue of having done it late in the game.
Let's skip to the end...
Ah, there it is. Smith is David Eckstein.
How one person could view things like the 49ers defense and Frank Gore as assets, Cohn views them as limitations that make it difficult to build up the ethos of 49ers quarterback as conquering hero. It's been a few years, so he probably has difficulty remembering that those Bill Walsh/Joe Montana teams ran it more than they passed it and that Montana averaged a bit less than the 532 passing yards and seven touchdowns to Jerry Rice per game that are no doubt running on a perpetual loop inside Cohn's venerable brain.
That's not to compare Smith to Montana, mind you, but even in today's pass-happy NFL, the fact remains that quarterbacks who chuck it all over the yard are the ones who have to. Rodgers, Brady, Manning, Brees, they'd all swap Gore for their running backs in a second if they could, and that goes double for the 49ers defense. I wonder if Cohn's noticed the drop in Schaub's numbers for the Texans. Houston's got a sensational running game and a much-improved defense, so they're not throwing it nearly as much. The Texans are 6-3. I'm guessing Cohn would look at the stats and conclude Schaub was a much better player last year.
49ers offensive coordinator Greg Roman was mystified that the topic of Smith's passing yards was even an issue when he was asked about it on Thursday.
"When you’re up, you’re not going to throw as much, right? And your yards per carry aren’t going to be as high because you’re facing loaded defenses and your defensive stats will probably be down, so to speak, because the other team’s been throwing it around. The only stat that matters is winning, everything else is statistical analysis and information gathering."
Smith has had over 30 pass attempts three times this season. In a completely shocking coincidence, all three were games in which the 49ers were trailing in the fourth quarter. He also happened to lead comeback wins, on the road, in all three, but why should anybody care about or appreciate that when he didn't even throw for 300 yards in any of those games, right?
"When you’re a score or two scores ahead in the second half, especially in the fourth quarter, you would tend to run the ball more," Harbaugh explained. "That could be an indication of things going well."
Harbaugh also came to his quarterback's defense on Wednesday, yet managed to rip off three consecutive sentences that were either flat out lies or staggeringly wrong statements just the same.
"I think people that know football and understand the game appreciate Alex Smith as a very talented quarterback," he said.
Unless Harbaugh believes that the only people who "know football and understand the game" reside in the 49ers coaching offices -- and don't put it past him -- that's wrong.
"He's every bit the elite quarterback as there is playing in the game right now."
Bit of a stretch.
"(I) appreciate all the talent that he has and what he brings to our team."
The truth is you could stand to appreciate it a bit more, coach, by occasionally calling pass plays inside the red zone with a lead and giving Smith's critics ammunition.
The Niners face the 6-2 New York Giants on Sunday in a game that will pit Smith, the third-rated fourth quarter passer in the NFL, against Manning, who's first in that category and the author of four fourth quarterback comebacks, including last week's dazzler at New England. Of course Smith will be less concerned with Manning and more so about a Giants defense that's tops in the NFL with 28 sacks, led by Jason Pierre-Paul (9.5) and Osi Umenyiora (6.0). End Justin Tuck has contributed but two of those 28 quarterback take downs, but he too chimed in with his opinion on Smith.
"He's a guy who they're trying to keep out of position to win the football game," Tuck said. "Obviously, with a back like Frank Gore and the O-Line keeping them in third-and-short situations and even if it's third-and-6 or 7, they still feel that they can pick it up running. I think they're asking Alex not to lose the game. He's playing decent with 10 touchdowns and two picks. He's not putting (their) defense in bad situations. If they get in field-goal range, they're going to run the ball and make sure they come away with some points. If they're not, they are going to run the ball and make sure they punt to put their defense in good positions to stop the offense."
Judging by those statements it's a wonder Harbaugh ever lets Smith pass the ball at all. Still, regardless of how many games he's won or how efficient he's been, most critics won't be sated until Smith slices an opposing secondary to ribbons (you know, again, since that first time against Philadelphia didn't count) and he does it over and over against quality competition. Basically he has to out-duel a star quarterback while Gore and the defense have off days.
Young, the first 49ers quarterback who any of us can remember playing with crappy backs and worse defenses said in an interview with that same sports talk monolith that it couldn't hurt to experiment.
"Offensively, if we’re actually going to threaten –- and we might as well, we’re 7-1, let’s go deep! Let’s do it! –- at some point as we have some games to, not waste, but some games to toy a little bit, not toy, what’s the word, we have games that we have to really push the envelope, let’s do it offensively, let’s throw the ball 40 times just once, just to see how it goes. Let’s go no huddle. Let’s go win it with the passing game."
Like just about every opponent they've played, the Giants are better in pass defense (19th) than stopping the run (24th). They like to stay in their "big nickel" package with three safeties and used it frequently last week against the Patriots even when New England went with the type of jumbo formations Harbaugh favors with extra linemen and multiple tight ends. Logic says the 49ers would be well off continuing to do what's been working and pound Gore early and often.
However, Frank the Tank has a gimpy left ankle and won't be 100 percent. Receiver Hakeem Nicks will be back for the Giants -- and running back Ahmad Bradshaw won't be -- suggesting that Manning will have a good day passing the rock and putting up some points. I dare say the locals will have to score well in the 20's to come out on top in this game, so Smith very well may have to put it up 30, 35 times. If he does, and the 49ers prevail, in a national game on Fox that will be seen by all the pundits back east, then maybe Smith will change some opinions.
Which will still stink, of course.
The Picks
Arizona at Philadelphia (0): The line is even because nobody is sure of Kevin Kolb's status. This feels like cheating, but I need all the help I can get. Eagles 27, Cardinals 17. **FIVE POINT SPECIAL**
Jacksonville at Indianapolis (+3): I'm feeling a big game from Maurice Jones-Drew here. Jaguars 23, Colts 9 **FOUR POINT SPECIAL**
New Orleans at Atlanta (+1): I do not trust the Saints on the road, but hopefully I'm wrong and they win in a shoot-out. Falcons 24, Saints 20
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+3): I know the Steelers will be grumpy, but I believe in Andy Dalton for now. Bengals 20, Steelers 17
St. Louis at Cleveland (-3): I like Joshua Cribbs against that slooow secondary. Sure, why not? Browns 24, Rams 17
Buffalo at Dallas (-6): Ryan Fitzpatrick can't stink it up twice in a row, can he? Bills 27, Cowboys 24
Denver at Kansas City (-4): I can see either team winning by 30. Chiefs 30, Broncos 10
Washington at Miami (-4): Reggie Bush is on fire. I don't know what to do with that information. Dolphins 23, Redskins 13
Houston at Tampa Bay (+4): I like the Texans running game against a Bucs defense missing Gerald McCoy. Texans 27, Buccaneers 20
Tennessee at Carolina (-4): Cam Newton is gonna have a big game here, I'm guessing. Panthers 30, Titans 23
Baltimore at Seattle (+7): God help me Flacco, you better not crap the bed. Ravens 26, Seahawks 10 **TWO POINT SPECIAL**
Detroit at Chicago (-3): I'm starting to buy the Bears, but I think the Lions match up well with them. Which means I have no point. Lions 24, Bears 20
New York Giants at San Francisco (-3): In the interest of full disclosure, would've picked the Giants if Bradshaw was healthy. 49ers 26, Giants 21
New England at New York Jets (-1): I love the Jets in this game, because I'm biased and insane. Jets 27, Patriots 20 **THREE POINT SPECIAL**
Minnesota at Green Bay (-14): Too... many... points. Packers 30, Vikings 20
Last week's W-L: 8-6
Season W-L: 81-49
Week 9 Vs. Spread: 8-6
Season Vs. Spread: 52-71-7
Week 9 +/- Points (All games count as one point unless specified): 12
Season +/- Points: -16
A peculiarly funky aroma has been associated with San Francisco 49ers quarterback Alex Smith for some, and no matter how much he does to wipe away the past and wash his hands of it, that shitty smell won't escape him in the eyes of critics.
Steve Young, the quarterback here a generation ago, is fond of saying that "perception is reality," and in the NFL the perception, by and large is that the 7-1 Niners have been winning in spite of Smith rather than because of him. It doesn't matter if you tune in to east coast-based ESPN or the NFL Network out of Los Angeles or any point in between. The 49ers are thought of a team with a ferocious defense, a physical running game, a brilliant coach and a liability under center.
"I think (49ers coach Jim) Harbaugh is doing as good a job as there is in this league with what he has," remarked Greg Cosell, an analyst with NFL Films, during an interview with KNBR 680, the local sportstalk monolith. "And you know how I feel about Alex Smith. It’s not personal knock on Alex Smith. Why do you think Jim Harbaugh is doing what he’s doing? He’s telling you –- I don’t have to tell you –- he’s telling you what he thinks of Alex Smith. He’s managing him."
Cosell is alluding to the fact that the 49ers are 30th in the league in passing yards and 32nd -- dead last -- in pass attempts. Despite playing virtually every snap through eight games, Smith is not on pace to pass for even 3,000 yards in an age where 4,000 is ho-hum and some of his contemporaries are threatening to eclipse 5,000. In their most recent game, a 19-11 win at Washington, Smith completed 17-of-24 passes for 200 yards -- and that was his second most prolific game of the season as far as yardage was concerned.
For example of how those numbers resonate with people, here are a couple of sections from Lowell Cohn's column after that game in the Santa Rosa Press Democrat:
Myth: Rookie coach Jim Harbaugh has discovered and unleashed the essential Alex Smith, the great college player taken first in the draft.
So far, so good. It is a myth that Smith has improved leaps and bounds under Harbaugh's tutelage. When it comes to 49ers who've taken a gigantic step forward in 2011 he's well behind guys like Mike Iupati, NaVorro Bowman, Anthony Davis, Dashon Goldson, Ray McDonald, Adam Snyder, Delanie Walker and Ahmad Brooks. Few seem to remember that Smith combined for eight touchdown passes to one interception over his final six appearances in 2010 and that included in that stretch was a game against the Seattle Seahawks on Dec. 12 where he posted the highest rating (130.9) of his career. So Cohn is technically right here, in an ironic sense.
Then he goes off the rails...
That is a myth — although it's a charming myth. If you believe it, you are not watching the 49ers through the lens of reality. Smith has a high completion percentage and a good passer rating. For that, he deserves a hallelujah. But his numbers, game by game, are unassuming and small. You might even say he has the numbers of a losing quarterback.
Smith is fifth in completion percentage at 64.1. The combined won-loss records of the four passers ahead of him (Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Ryan Fitzpatrick) and the one behind (Ben Roethlisberger) is 30-12.
Smith is sixth in passer rating at 97.3. The combined won-loss records of the five passers ahead of him (Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Matthew Stafford and Eli Manning) and the three behind him (Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub and Fitzpatrick) is 48-19.
I'd say Smith has the numbers of a winning quarterback.
Please don't go into a conniption about that last sentence. Smith is playing well and deserves credit. But he is not Aaron Rodgers and he won't be. In Sunday's game, he threw for 200 yards, a mere pittance. Redskins quarterback John Beck, a real loser, threw for 254 yards. Beck threw one TD pass and so did Smith. Beck completed 30 passes and Smith completed a modest 17.
While this paragraph might suggest otherwise, no, Lowell Cohn does not play fantasy football. He is judging quarterback play through the prism of completions and yards, which is akin to judging a baseball player by batting average and RBIs. Beck had nearly twice as many attempts (47) to Smith's 24 in the game and averaged 5.4 yards-per-attempt to Smith's 8.3. Cohn also neglects to mention that Beck's touchdown pass came with 1:10 left and the 49ers nursing a 19-3 lead, but I suppose in his warped view this was an indication that he was more "clutch" than Smith by virtue of having done it late in the game.
Let's skip to the end...
Harbaugh is praising Smith for certain limited virtues: grit, smarts, and for throwing a good pass when called upon. He is not praising Smith for being a game-winner. He is praising him for not being a game-loser. This is a large step forward from previous seasons, but it also expresses Smith's limitations — which still exist.
Ah, there it is. Smith is David Eckstein.
How one person could view things like the 49ers defense and Frank Gore as assets, Cohn views them as limitations that make it difficult to build up the ethos of 49ers quarterback as conquering hero. It's been a few years, so he probably has difficulty remembering that those Bill Walsh/Joe Montana teams ran it more than they passed it and that Montana averaged a bit less than the 532 passing yards and seven touchdowns to Jerry Rice per game that are no doubt running on a perpetual loop inside Cohn's venerable brain.
That's not to compare Smith to Montana, mind you, but even in today's pass-happy NFL, the fact remains that quarterbacks who chuck it all over the yard are the ones who have to. Rodgers, Brady, Manning, Brees, they'd all swap Gore for their running backs in a second if they could, and that goes double for the 49ers defense. I wonder if Cohn's noticed the drop in Schaub's numbers for the Texans. Houston's got a sensational running game and a much-improved defense, so they're not throwing it nearly as much. The Texans are 6-3. I'm guessing Cohn would look at the stats and conclude Schaub was a much better player last year.
49ers offensive coordinator Greg Roman was mystified that the topic of Smith's passing yards was even an issue when he was asked about it on Thursday.
"When you’re up, you’re not going to throw as much, right? And your yards per carry aren’t going to be as high because you’re facing loaded defenses and your defensive stats will probably be down, so to speak, because the other team’s been throwing it around. The only stat that matters is winning, everything else is statistical analysis and information gathering."
Smith has had over 30 pass attempts three times this season. In a completely shocking coincidence, all three were games in which the 49ers were trailing in the fourth quarter. He also happened to lead comeback wins, on the road, in all three, but why should anybody care about or appreciate that when he didn't even throw for 300 yards in any of those games, right?
"When you’re a score or two scores ahead in the second half, especially in the fourth quarter, you would tend to run the ball more," Harbaugh explained. "That could be an indication of things going well."
Harbaugh also came to his quarterback's defense on Wednesday, yet managed to rip off three consecutive sentences that were either flat out lies or staggeringly wrong statements just the same.
"I think people that know football and understand the game appreciate Alex Smith as a very talented quarterback," he said.
Unless Harbaugh believes that the only people who "know football and understand the game" reside in the 49ers coaching offices -- and don't put it past him -- that's wrong.
"He's every bit the elite quarterback as there is playing in the game right now."
Bit of a stretch.
"(I) appreciate all the talent that he has and what he brings to our team."
The truth is you could stand to appreciate it a bit more, coach, by occasionally calling pass plays inside the red zone with a lead and giving Smith's critics ammunition.
The Niners face the 6-2 New York Giants on Sunday in a game that will pit Smith, the third-rated fourth quarter passer in the NFL, against Manning, who's first in that category and the author of four fourth quarterback comebacks, including last week's dazzler at New England. Of course Smith will be less concerned with Manning and more so about a Giants defense that's tops in the NFL with 28 sacks, led by Jason Pierre-Paul (9.5) and Osi Umenyiora (6.0). End Justin Tuck has contributed but two of those 28 quarterback take downs, but he too chimed in with his opinion on Smith.
"He's a guy who they're trying to keep out of position to win the football game," Tuck said. "Obviously, with a back like Frank Gore and the O-Line keeping them in third-and-short situations and even if it's third-and-6 or 7, they still feel that they can pick it up running. I think they're asking Alex not to lose the game. He's playing decent with 10 touchdowns and two picks. He's not putting (their) defense in bad situations. If they get in field-goal range, they're going to run the ball and make sure they come away with some points. If they're not, they are going to run the ball and make sure they punt to put their defense in good positions to stop the offense."
Judging by those statements it's a wonder Harbaugh ever lets Smith pass the ball at all. Still, regardless of how many games he's won or how efficient he's been, most critics won't be sated until Smith slices an opposing secondary to ribbons (you know, again, since that first time against Philadelphia didn't count) and he does it over and over against quality competition. Basically he has to out-duel a star quarterback while Gore and the defense have off days.
Young, the first 49ers quarterback who any of us can remember playing with crappy backs and worse defenses said in an interview with that same sports talk monolith that it couldn't hurt to experiment.
"Offensively, if we’re actually going to threaten –- and we might as well, we’re 7-1, let’s go deep! Let’s do it! –- at some point as we have some games to, not waste, but some games to toy a little bit, not toy, what’s the word, we have games that we have to really push the envelope, let’s do it offensively, let’s throw the ball 40 times just once, just to see how it goes. Let’s go no huddle. Let’s go win it with the passing game."
Like just about every opponent they've played, the Giants are better in pass defense (19th) than stopping the run (24th). They like to stay in their "big nickel" package with three safeties and used it frequently last week against the Patriots even when New England went with the type of jumbo formations Harbaugh favors with extra linemen and multiple tight ends. Logic says the 49ers would be well off continuing to do what's been working and pound Gore early and often.
However, Frank the Tank has a gimpy left ankle and won't be 100 percent. Receiver Hakeem Nicks will be back for the Giants -- and running back Ahmad Bradshaw won't be -- suggesting that Manning will have a good day passing the rock and putting up some points. I dare say the locals will have to score well in the 20's to come out on top in this game, so Smith very well may have to put it up 30, 35 times. If he does, and the 49ers prevail, in a national game on Fox that will be seen by all the pundits back east, then maybe Smith will change some opinions.
Which will still stink, of course.
The Picks
Arizona at Philadelphia (0): The line is even because nobody is sure of Kevin Kolb's status. This feels like cheating, but I need all the help I can get. Eagles 27, Cardinals 17. **FIVE POINT SPECIAL**
Jacksonville at Indianapolis (+3): I'm feeling a big game from Maurice Jones-Drew here. Jaguars 23, Colts 9 **FOUR POINT SPECIAL**
New Orleans at Atlanta (+1): I do not trust the Saints on the road, but hopefully I'm wrong and they win in a shoot-out. Falcons 24, Saints 20
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+3): I know the Steelers will be grumpy, but I believe in Andy Dalton for now. Bengals 20, Steelers 17
St. Louis at Cleveland (-3): I like Joshua Cribbs against that slooow secondary. Sure, why not? Browns 24, Rams 17
Buffalo at Dallas (-6): Ryan Fitzpatrick can't stink it up twice in a row, can he? Bills 27, Cowboys 24
Denver at Kansas City (-4): I can see either team winning by 30. Chiefs 30, Broncos 10
Washington at Miami (-4): Reggie Bush is on fire. I don't know what to do with that information. Dolphins 23, Redskins 13
Houston at Tampa Bay (+4): I like the Texans running game against a Bucs defense missing Gerald McCoy. Texans 27, Buccaneers 20
Tennessee at Carolina (-4): Cam Newton is gonna have a big game here, I'm guessing. Panthers 30, Titans 23
Baltimore at Seattle (+7): God help me Flacco, you better not crap the bed. Ravens 26, Seahawks 10 **TWO POINT SPECIAL**
Detroit at Chicago (-3): I'm starting to buy the Bears, but I think the Lions match up well with them. Which means I have no point. Lions 24, Bears 20
New York Giants at San Francisco (-3): In the interest of full disclosure, would've picked the Giants if Bradshaw was healthy. 49ers 26, Giants 21
New England at New York Jets (-1): I love the Jets in this game, because I'm biased and insane. Jets 27, Patriots 20 **THREE POINT SPECIAL**
Minnesota at Green Bay (-14): Too... many... points. Packers 30, Vikings 20
Last week's W-L: 8-6
Season W-L: 81-49
Week 9 Vs. Spread: 8-6
Season Vs. Spread: 52-71-7
Week 9 +/- Points (All games count as one point unless specified): 12
Season +/- Points: -16
Monday, November 7, 2011
C+ Is Good Enough, Some Game Balls and My Apparent Love of "Low-Hanging Fruit"
Here’s how good the 49ers are in 2011 – they can play a “C+” game, on the road, and still dominate the first 57 minutes and win comfortably.
Did any facet of their operation thrill you during yesterday’s 19-11 win at FedExField over the injury decimated and far too Shanahanned Washington [insert offensive racial euphemism here]?
On offense there were ill-timed penalties that turned an early 3rd-and-1 into a 3rd-and-6 and turned a second half 4th-and-1 where they appeared set to go for it into a 4th-and-6 and another David Akers field goal. There were drops by Frank Gore and Vernon Davis that ruined drives and a bad miss by Alex Smith on third down when he could’ve hit a wide open Gore on a rollout. The Niners converted 3-of-12 third downs and were 0-for-2 in the red zone. Several times plays appeared to come to Smith too late, forcing him to waste time outs and reminding us of the bad old Mike Singletary days.
Defensively they were sensational as always against the run, and after two or three productive carries by Washington rookie Roy Helu, he got nothing the rest of the way. It’s gotten to the point where you wonder why people even bother ever calling a running play against the Niners. It’s a waste of a down, akin to turning a 49ers defensive series into the CFL, where the opposing offense only has two plays and then the punt. However, run defense aside – the locals still haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown all season and haven’t had anybody run for 100 on them in 30 games – it wasn’t a dominating performance by any means.
Patrick Willis was amazing as always, but neither of his forced fumbles on Helu came on a ferocious hit or a powerful strip. Helu just wasn’t securing the ball high-and-tight (think Jeremy Maclin) and “P-Willie” did what he does because he’s a future Hall-of-Famer. Dashon Goldson had a fabulous break on a ball to snatch his second interception in as many games, but let’s face it, it’s not like John Beck has a cannon.
To me, the disappointing aspect of the defense, and maybe I’m picking nits here, was the pass rush, or lack thereof. Ahmad Brooks had the only sack the Niners had, out of 51 Beck drop-backs. Beck attempted 47 passes and scrambled for gains on four other occasions when the pocket broke down on him. Far too often, he had all day back there, especially in play-action situations. It was a credit to the secondary (and an indictment of Beck) that he only had 254 yards on his 30 completions and had to settle for so many check-downs to Helu, but that was the same Washington o-line that gave up 10 sacks to Buffalo last week. Against a better QB and better receivers – such as the ones they’ll face next Sunday – that kind of time in the pocket portends bad things.
Even on special teams, Akers was a perfect 4-for-4, including a 52-yarder; and Brad Seely’s coverage units were solid as always led by Blake Costanzo and C.J. Spillman, but Andy Lee dumped two of his five punts into the end zone and Ted Ginn had a quiet day in the return game.
What I liked about the operation on offense is that Gore wasn’t overtaxed and that Harbaugh got everyone involved, whether it was Bruce Miller or Kendall Hunter or Kyle Williams or Ginn. There were personnel packages aplenty and formations galore. Smith completed passes to eight different receivers and was as sharp (70.8%) as he’s been any game since the season-opener, when he dinked-and-dunked for 124 yards on 15-of-20 against Seattle.
My concern is that at times these guys are too clever by half. You don’t need nose tackle Isaac Sopoaga out there to convert every 3rd-and-1. You don’t always need seven linemen or multiple shifts or this guy motioning and that guy reporting as an eligible receiver. Trickery is fine and good on 1st-and-10 against somebody worthwhile. On 3rd-and-inches how about you just do a QB sneak right behind Mike Iupati’s big derriere and see what happens?
Then there are the red zone issues. At some point Harbaugh will have to give the other team’s run defense some credit. There’s a reason the 49ers haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown all season. It’s not easy to jam it in there in close quarters when there isn’t as much field to defend. It really is easier to pass it in. If it’s a simple matter of saving your “good” red zone plays for the good teams when you’re gonna need them, that’s one thing, but eventually Harbaugh will have to trust that the quarterback who’s been so careful with the ball for him all season will be that same quarterback inside the 10-yard-line. In fact, Smith’s history is that he’s been better in those situations than he is normally. Harbaugh has let Smith pass it in the red zone in games they’ve trailed, but not nearly as much as when they’re playing from ahead. Until that changes, this team will continue to lack that killer instinct.
I must stress that I don’t think Harbaugh coaching this way has any reflection on what he thinks of Smith as a passer. I’m quite aware that the national perception – and that of some local columnists – is that he’s “hiding,” “protecting,” or trying to win in spite of Smith, but that’s not how I’m reading the situation at all. I just think Harbaugh is naturally a run-first coach and conservative by nature and that trying to pound it in fits in with his whole macho persona and tutelage under Bo Schembechler. Still, by-and-large, running the ball up the gut will lead to more Akers field goals than not. I have a suspicion that the Giants will score more than 11 points, so maybe this will be the week that Harbaugh puts the game more in Smith’s hands, especially with Gore gimpy with a bum left ankle.
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Reason Why Jim Harbaugh Is Difficult To Work With – No. 618
Toward the end of his press conference, Harbaugh, perhaps annoyed that no one asked him a special teams question, decided to praise the work of C.J. Spillman for occupying numerous Washington’s blockers and Tramaine Brock for blocking in coverage. Then he said this, about Akers:
“Another four-for-four in the field goals. Now I see you nodding your heads, you like that low-hanging fruit don’t you? ‘Oh four-for-four, that’s a statistic we can mark.’”
That’s right coach. None of us understand a darn thing about football beyond the surface statistics. We’re all total laymen who don’t even watch the games.
Of course, whenever anybody asks Harbaugh an actual football question, such as “what’s the difference in responsibilities between your two safeties,” or “Can you give an example of the difference in techniques the inside linebackers have in Vic Fangio’s 3-4 defense versus Greg Manusky’s defense?” all we ever get is “I’m not going to get into the scheme.”
Eventually the way the NFL is going, independent media will be eliminated altogether and the league will just let team employees disseminate information to the public. Unfortunately, guys like Rex Ryan are the exception in this profession, not the rule. To Harbaugh’s credit, the better you are at your job, the less any of this other stuff matters. Thousands of Giants fans – including myself – cheered Barry Bonds everyday without ever thinking of he treated the beat writers the night before, and we were perfectly right to do so. Harbaugh deserves all the cheers he’s getting as well.
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Game Balls:
Ricky Jean Francois – made his second start of the season and first ever start at defensive end, in place of the injured Ray McDonald. I admit that before this season that I didn’t think much of all as Jean Francois as an NFL player. I loved him as a person, of course, as does just about anybody who interacts with him, but I thought for the most part that when he did see action on the field, that he looked like one would expect a former 7th-round pick to look. However, Jean Francois has been much better at holding the point this season and I thought he had a great game on the nose against Tampa when he starred in place of Isaac Sopoaga.
Yesterday he wasn’t quite as good, but it was obvious that Washington was targeting him and running to his direction early on. Jean Francois said he got some tips from Sopoaga and linemate Justin Smith on the sidelines and after that the running game went pffft. I give him credit for being versatile enough to not just play end on the run downs, but also to be able to take over McDonald’s role in the nickel and do his part as a pass rusher as well. It’s not easy to go from a reserve to an every down player and Jean Francois played just about every snap on defense from what I saw.
Dashon Goldson: In the offseason I openly wondered which Goldson we’ve seen is the real one – the 2009 version or the 2010 version? Well, through six games – he missed the first two with a knee injury – Goldson’s play, while not as consistently spectacular as we saw two years ago, has definitely leaned closer in that direction than last season’s, which saw him get almost no interest in the free agent market. The 49ers free safety is back to his playmaking ways, and has been involved in a turnover in four of the last five games, including yesterday’s interception. He’s always been a ferocious hitter, but if he continues to be a ball hawk, the 49ers will have to shell out the bucks to re-sign him.
Bruce Miller: The 30-yard pass he caught for a touchdown effortlessly in the second quarter gives you a good idea of why Miller, a defensive end at UCF, was drafted to be a fullback. Good coaching can teach a kid to block, if he’s smart enough and strong enough and willing to do it. Coaches can’t teach Moran Norris to run fast or catch. Running backs coach Tom Rathman pointed out that Miller’s blocking game still has more to do with angles and leverage than it does with power, but even in that aspect I’ve seen him get out to make some blocks on the second level there was no way the plodding Morris could’ve made. I think the kid is gonna have a nice career here.
David Akers: He’s now a perfect 4-of-4 on kicks of 50 yards or longer. I can’t shake the feeling that having a kicker as the offense’s most dependable weapon is also its biggest curse. When coaches trust their kickers too much they tend to not be as aggressive in their play-calls between the 25 and 40-yard-lines. I guess the same is true, in a way, of having a great defense. They both detract coaches from the goal of scoring touchdowns. We’ll see how it affects the 49ers down the road.
Did any facet of their operation thrill you during yesterday’s 19-11 win at FedExField over the injury decimated and far too Shanahanned Washington [insert offensive racial euphemism here]?
On offense there were ill-timed penalties that turned an early 3rd-and-1 into a 3rd-and-6 and turned a second half 4th-and-1 where they appeared set to go for it into a 4th-and-6 and another David Akers field goal. There were drops by Frank Gore and Vernon Davis that ruined drives and a bad miss by Alex Smith on third down when he could’ve hit a wide open Gore on a rollout. The Niners converted 3-of-12 third downs and were 0-for-2 in the red zone. Several times plays appeared to come to Smith too late, forcing him to waste time outs and reminding us of the bad old Mike Singletary days.
Defensively they were sensational as always against the run, and after two or three productive carries by Washington rookie Roy Helu, he got nothing the rest of the way. It’s gotten to the point where you wonder why people even bother ever calling a running play against the Niners. It’s a waste of a down, akin to turning a 49ers defensive series into the CFL, where the opposing offense only has two plays and then the punt. However, run defense aside – the locals still haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown all season and haven’t had anybody run for 100 on them in 30 games – it wasn’t a dominating performance by any means.
Patrick Willis was amazing as always, but neither of his forced fumbles on Helu came on a ferocious hit or a powerful strip. Helu just wasn’t securing the ball high-and-tight (think Jeremy Maclin) and “P-Willie” did what he does because he’s a future Hall-of-Famer. Dashon Goldson had a fabulous break on a ball to snatch his second interception in as many games, but let’s face it, it’s not like John Beck has a cannon.
To me, the disappointing aspect of the defense, and maybe I’m picking nits here, was the pass rush, or lack thereof. Ahmad Brooks had the only sack the Niners had, out of 51 Beck drop-backs. Beck attempted 47 passes and scrambled for gains on four other occasions when the pocket broke down on him. Far too often, he had all day back there, especially in play-action situations. It was a credit to the secondary (and an indictment of Beck) that he only had 254 yards on his 30 completions and had to settle for so many check-downs to Helu, but that was the same Washington o-line that gave up 10 sacks to Buffalo last week. Against a better QB and better receivers – such as the ones they’ll face next Sunday – that kind of time in the pocket portends bad things.
Even on special teams, Akers was a perfect 4-for-4, including a 52-yarder; and Brad Seely’s coverage units were solid as always led by Blake Costanzo and C.J. Spillman, but Andy Lee dumped two of his five punts into the end zone and Ted Ginn had a quiet day in the return game.
What I liked about the operation on offense is that Gore wasn’t overtaxed and that Harbaugh got everyone involved, whether it was Bruce Miller or Kendall Hunter or Kyle Williams or Ginn. There were personnel packages aplenty and formations galore. Smith completed passes to eight different receivers and was as sharp (70.8%) as he’s been any game since the season-opener, when he dinked-and-dunked for 124 yards on 15-of-20 against Seattle.
My concern is that at times these guys are too clever by half. You don’t need nose tackle Isaac Sopoaga out there to convert every 3rd-and-1. You don’t always need seven linemen or multiple shifts or this guy motioning and that guy reporting as an eligible receiver. Trickery is fine and good on 1st-and-10 against somebody worthwhile. On 3rd-and-inches how about you just do a QB sneak right behind Mike Iupati’s big derriere and see what happens?
Then there are the red zone issues. At some point Harbaugh will have to give the other team’s run defense some credit. There’s a reason the 49ers haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown all season. It’s not easy to jam it in there in close quarters when there isn’t as much field to defend. It really is easier to pass it in. If it’s a simple matter of saving your “good” red zone plays for the good teams when you’re gonna need them, that’s one thing, but eventually Harbaugh will have to trust that the quarterback who’s been so careful with the ball for him all season will be that same quarterback inside the 10-yard-line. In fact, Smith’s history is that he’s been better in those situations than he is normally. Harbaugh has let Smith pass it in the red zone in games they’ve trailed, but not nearly as much as when they’re playing from ahead. Until that changes, this team will continue to lack that killer instinct.
I must stress that I don’t think Harbaugh coaching this way has any reflection on what he thinks of Smith as a passer. I’m quite aware that the national perception – and that of some local columnists – is that he’s “hiding,” “protecting,” or trying to win in spite of Smith, but that’s not how I’m reading the situation at all. I just think Harbaugh is naturally a run-first coach and conservative by nature and that trying to pound it in fits in with his whole macho persona and tutelage under Bo Schembechler. Still, by-and-large, running the ball up the gut will lead to more Akers field goals than not. I have a suspicion that the Giants will score more than 11 points, so maybe this will be the week that Harbaugh puts the game more in Smith’s hands, especially with Gore gimpy with a bum left ankle.
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Reason Why Jim Harbaugh Is Difficult To Work With – No. 618
Toward the end of his press conference, Harbaugh, perhaps annoyed that no one asked him a special teams question, decided to praise the work of C.J. Spillman for occupying numerous Washington’s blockers and Tramaine Brock for blocking in coverage. Then he said this, about Akers:
“Another four-for-four in the field goals. Now I see you nodding your heads, you like that low-hanging fruit don’t you? ‘Oh four-for-four, that’s a statistic we can mark.’”
That’s right coach. None of us understand a darn thing about football beyond the surface statistics. We’re all total laymen who don’t even watch the games.
Of course, whenever anybody asks Harbaugh an actual football question, such as “what’s the difference in responsibilities between your two safeties,” or “Can you give an example of the difference in techniques the inside linebackers have in Vic Fangio’s 3-4 defense versus Greg Manusky’s defense?” all we ever get is “I’m not going to get into the scheme.”
Eventually the way the NFL is going, independent media will be eliminated altogether and the league will just let team employees disseminate information to the public. Unfortunately, guys like Rex Ryan are the exception in this profession, not the rule. To Harbaugh’s credit, the better you are at your job, the less any of this other stuff matters. Thousands of Giants fans – including myself – cheered Barry Bonds everyday without ever thinking of he treated the beat writers the night before, and we were perfectly right to do so. Harbaugh deserves all the cheers he’s getting as well.
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Game Balls:
Ricky Jean Francois – made his second start of the season and first ever start at defensive end, in place of the injured Ray McDonald. I admit that before this season that I didn’t think much of all as Jean Francois as an NFL player. I loved him as a person, of course, as does just about anybody who interacts with him, but I thought for the most part that when he did see action on the field, that he looked like one would expect a former 7th-round pick to look. However, Jean Francois has been much better at holding the point this season and I thought he had a great game on the nose against Tampa when he starred in place of Isaac Sopoaga.
Yesterday he wasn’t quite as good, but it was obvious that Washington was targeting him and running to his direction early on. Jean Francois said he got some tips from Sopoaga and linemate Justin Smith on the sidelines and after that the running game went pffft. I give him credit for being versatile enough to not just play end on the run downs, but also to be able to take over McDonald’s role in the nickel and do his part as a pass rusher as well. It’s not easy to go from a reserve to an every down player and Jean Francois played just about every snap on defense from what I saw.
Dashon Goldson: In the offseason I openly wondered which Goldson we’ve seen is the real one – the 2009 version or the 2010 version? Well, through six games – he missed the first two with a knee injury – Goldson’s play, while not as consistently spectacular as we saw two years ago, has definitely leaned closer in that direction than last season’s, which saw him get almost no interest in the free agent market. The 49ers free safety is back to his playmaking ways, and has been involved in a turnover in four of the last five games, including yesterday’s interception. He’s always been a ferocious hitter, but if he continues to be a ball hawk, the 49ers will have to shell out the bucks to re-sign him.
Bruce Miller: The 30-yard pass he caught for a touchdown effortlessly in the second quarter gives you a good idea of why Miller, a defensive end at UCF, was drafted to be a fullback. Good coaching can teach a kid to block, if he’s smart enough and strong enough and willing to do it. Coaches can’t teach Moran Norris to run fast or catch. Running backs coach Tom Rathman pointed out that Miller’s blocking game still has more to do with angles and leverage than it does with power, but even in that aspect I’ve seen him get out to make some blocks on the second level there was no way the plodding Morris could’ve made. I think the kid is gonna have a nice career here.
David Akers: He’s now a perfect 4-of-4 on kicks of 50 yards or longer. I can’t shake the feeling that having a kicker as the offense’s most dependable weapon is also its biggest curse. When coaches trust their kickers too much they tend to not be as aggressive in their play-calls between the 25 and 40-yard-lines. I guess the same is true, in a way, of having a great defense. They both detract coaches from the goal of scoring touchdowns. We’ll see how it affects the 49ers down the road.
Monday, October 31, 2011
Trick Plays All A Part Of Harbaugh's Game Within A Game
In Monday's postmortem of Sunday's 20-10 ho-hummer over the shorthanded Cleveland Browns, Jim Harbaugh said a couple of things that I thought were interesting and revealing, in their own way.
First there was this, in response to a question about if he's already started to plan for December, and Harbaugh conceded he probably does look forward more than the typical coach.
"Just generally it's just a philosophy of life, of how we approach things as a team. There’s the one philosophy that's 'yesterday's a (memory), tomorrow is a mystery, we live for the present, it’s a gift' - that kind of thing. That's not us. We reject that. We live for the future to make tomorrow better, to make this Sunday better. Everything that we can do today so we can have a better future."
Now I might be reading into things a bit, but here's what I took from that quote. Harbaugh denied it earlier in the season, but I think he was holding something back in the game plans. He was keeping it ultra conservative early on and making Alex Smith show him something, making the linemen prove they could play together, making the receivers show they were committed to the cause by blocking downfield before they got their treats in the passing game. He wanted to see what he had before he opened it up, and the Seattle Seahawks, the opening opponent, were just the kind of team to stage a preseason-esque proving ground game against. No offense to my guy Sam Lam of the Examiner (who doesn't read this anyway) but if the 49ers are Stanford, than the Seahawks were San Jose State.
My point is I think Harbaugh told us a white lie when he said the coaches put everything they can into a game plan to win and hold nothing back. After watching this team for seven games, I'm convinced that Harbaugh is confident enough in his abilities and those of his coordinators and his players, to treat the game plans by and large like that joke about the Irishman and the dick-measuring contest.
If you haven't heard it, the joke goes like this: An Irishman comes home and presents his son with a toy car and his daughter with a new doll and a bouquet of flowers for his wife. His wife is thankful for the gifts but doesn't understand the timing, as there is no special occasion for any of it. He explains to her that he won some money at the bar for a contest and wanted to share in the spoils with his family.
"What kind of contest?" she asked, dubiously.
"Oh nothing special. We just wanted to see who had the biggest member," he said, nonchalantly.
"So you just pulled the whole thing out in front of everyone?" she replied, incredulous.
"No," he said. "Just enough to win."
So yes, I think Harbaugh has coached some "just enough to win" games against Seattle, Cincinnati and yesterday against Cleveland. I believe he coaches in the short-term, but without ever losing focus on the big picture, and the timing of the trick plays where Smith threw passes to Joe Staley on a tackle-eligible play and to nose tackle Isaac Sopoaga who was lined up at fullback, was too convenient for me to ignore.
I mean, think about it. The Browns have a popgun offense. Their QB, Colt McCoy, has a noodle arm. Their two best runners -- Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty -- as well as their best receiver in Mohamed Massaquoi, were out. I don't believe Harbaugh ever regarded Cleveland as a serious threat to beat his team, not with the talent the 49ers have on defense.
What better time to experiment with a few gimmick plays? What's the downside? Sure, it's great that Staley caught the pass and made a show of getting the first down. The play made all the highlight shows and got him exposure on the NFL Network. And it's great that Sopoaga caught his third down pass late in the fourth quarter which basically iced the game. But even if neither play worked, there were no serious consequences to trying them. Even if Sopoaga dropped the ball, so what? The 49ers would've punted and the Browns would've had to drive 80 yards to tie it up. It took McCoy 53 minutes to beat that defense once. Was he really gonna do it again two drives in a row? Doubtful.
No, the point isn't that the plays were successful or not, but that Harbaugh and his coaches tried them. Now, opposing coaches (like his brother, John, with Baltimore or New York's Tom Coughlin) will have to waste 15-20 minutes every day of practice before they play the Niners working on ways to stop JOE STALEY AND ISAAC SOPOAGA from catching passes. They'll be spending time worrying about Ted Ginn on reverses and end-arounds. That's valuable time that won't be spent worrying about Frank Gore or Vernon Davis or Braylon Edwards. That's a win for Harbaugh, and how I think his "live for the future" quote applies.
There's more to my theory of Browns as guinea pigs. It's the way that, in an offense famous for favoring tight ends in the passing game, that Smith virtually ignored Davis and Delanie Walker completely and forced nearly every pass at Edwards and Michael Crabtree. It's the way they resisted throwing any screen passes to Gore or Kendall Hunter. I think Harbaugh wanted to get the wide outs going and saved the more dependable aspects of his passing game for when they'll be needed down the road.
The 49ers face another team whose offense has been decimated by injuries on Sunday in the Washington Redskins. They've already lost their best back in Tim Hightower and their starting tight end in Chris Cooley, for the year. Their best wide out, Santana Moss will be out, and there's a good chance backup tight end Fred Davis will too. Their quarterback situation is well documented and they were shutout by the Buffalo Bills on Sunday 23-0. They're so desperate that they signed Tashard Choice off waivers from the Cowboys.
So don't be surprised if you see some more "what the hell?" shenanigans from Harbaugh. A wildcat package for Colin Kaepernick? Wouldn't surprise me in the least. A receiver pass from Edwards? He's got a pretty good arm (as does Sopoaga, actually). The more practice time-wasters Harbaugh can force upon "enemy" coaches, the better. It's another house money, "just enough" game, set up on a tee, in a schedule full of them (see: NFC West standings).
Besides, by now if there's anything Harbaugh's proven besides that he's a great coach, it's that he's a pretty big dick.
First there was this, in response to a question about if he's already started to plan for December, and Harbaugh conceded he probably does look forward more than the typical coach.
"Just generally it's just a philosophy of life, of how we approach things as a team. There’s the one philosophy that's 'yesterday's a (memory), tomorrow is a mystery, we live for the present, it’s a gift' - that kind of thing. That's not us. We reject that. We live for the future to make tomorrow better, to make this Sunday better. Everything that we can do today so we can have a better future."
Now I might be reading into things a bit, but here's what I took from that quote. Harbaugh denied it earlier in the season, but I think he was holding something back in the game plans. He was keeping it ultra conservative early on and making Alex Smith show him something, making the linemen prove they could play together, making the receivers show they were committed to the cause by blocking downfield before they got their treats in the passing game. He wanted to see what he had before he opened it up, and the Seattle Seahawks, the opening opponent, were just the kind of team to stage a preseason-esque proving ground game against. No offense to my guy Sam Lam of the Examiner (who doesn't read this anyway) but if the 49ers are Stanford, than the Seahawks were San Jose State.
My point is I think Harbaugh told us a white lie when he said the coaches put everything they can into a game plan to win and hold nothing back. After watching this team for seven games, I'm convinced that Harbaugh is confident enough in his abilities and those of his coordinators and his players, to treat the game plans by and large like that joke about the Irishman and the dick-measuring contest.
If you haven't heard it, the joke goes like this: An Irishman comes home and presents his son with a toy car and his daughter with a new doll and a bouquet of flowers for his wife. His wife is thankful for the gifts but doesn't understand the timing, as there is no special occasion for any of it. He explains to her that he won some money at the bar for a contest and wanted to share in the spoils with his family.
"What kind of contest?" she asked, dubiously.
"Oh nothing special. We just wanted to see who had the biggest member," he said, nonchalantly.
"So you just pulled the whole thing out in front of everyone?" she replied, incredulous.
"No," he said. "Just enough to win."
So yes, I think Harbaugh has coached some "just enough to win" games against Seattle, Cincinnati and yesterday against Cleveland. I believe he coaches in the short-term, but without ever losing focus on the big picture, and the timing of the trick plays where Smith threw passes to Joe Staley on a tackle-eligible play and to nose tackle Isaac Sopoaga who was lined up at fullback, was too convenient for me to ignore.
I mean, think about it. The Browns have a popgun offense. Their QB, Colt McCoy, has a noodle arm. Their two best runners -- Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty -- as well as their best receiver in Mohamed Massaquoi, were out. I don't believe Harbaugh ever regarded Cleveland as a serious threat to beat his team, not with the talent the 49ers have on defense.
What better time to experiment with a few gimmick plays? What's the downside? Sure, it's great that Staley caught the pass and made a show of getting the first down. The play made all the highlight shows and got him exposure on the NFL Network. And it's great that Sopoaga caught his third down pass late in the fourth quarter which basically iced the game. But even if neither play worked, there were no serious consequences to trying them. Even if Sopoaga dropped the ball, so what? The 49ers would've punted and the Browns would've had to drive 80 yards to tie it up. It took McCoy 53 minutes to beat that defense once. Was he really gonna do it again two drives in a row? Doubtful.
No, the point isn't that the plays were successful or not, but that Harbaugh and his coaches tried them. Now, opposing coaches (like his brother, John, with Baltimore or New York's Tom Coughlin) will have to waste 15-20 minutes every day of practice before they play the Niners working on ways to stop JOE STALEY AND ISAAC SOPOAGA from catching passes. They'll be spending time worrying about Ted Ginn on reverses and end-arounds. That's valuable time that won't be spent worrying about Frank Gore or Vernon Davis or Braylon Edwards. That's a win for Harbaugh, and how I think his "live for the future" quote applies.
There's more to my theory of Browns as guinea pigs. It's the way that, in an offense famous for favoring tight ends in the passing game, that Smith virtually ignored Davis and Delanie Walker completely and forced nearly every pass at Edwards and Michael Crabtree. It's the way they resisted throwing any screen passes to Gore or Kendall Hunter. I think Harbaugh wanted to get the wide outs going and saved the more dependable aspects of his passing game for when they'll be needed down the road.
The 49ers face another team whose offense has been decimated by injuries on Sunday in the Washington Redskins. They've already lost their best back in Tim Hightower and their starting tight end in Chris Cooley, for the year. Their best wide out, Santana Moss will be out, and there's a good chance backup tight end Fred Davis will too. Their quarterback situation is well documented and they were shutout by the Buffalo Bills on Sunday 23-0. They're so desperate that they signed Tashard Choice off waivers from the Cowboys.
So don't be surprised if you see some more "what the hell?" shenanigans from Harbaugh. A wildcat package for Colin Kaepernick? Wouldn't surprise me in the least. A receiver pass from Edwards? He's got a pretty good arm (as does Sopoaga, actually). The more practice time-wasters Harbaugh can force upon "enemy" coaches, the better. It's another house money, "just enough" game, set up on a tee, in a schedule full of them (see: NFC West standings).
Besides, by now if there's anything Harbaugh's proven besides that he's a great coach, it's that he's a pretty big dick.
Friday, October 28, 2011
Mr. Soft May Be Brown, But Not Necessarily From Cleveland
Right about now I'm guessing that Jim Harbaugh is thankful that his Stanford team was so dominant last season, because it gave him some valuable experience in playing against the dregs and lower lights of the Pac-10 (now Pac-12). I mean any coach can rally the troops and give them the "nobody believes in us" shpiel when his team is a 10-point underdog, but the rah-rah coaching manual is decidedly more vague when it comes to the question of how to motivate your team when the whole world thinks you can win simply by throwing your jerseys out on the field.
Hence our introduction to Harbaugh's latest bit of paranoia: Freddy P. Soft. What the "P" stands for is not suitable to discuss in polite company, but if you were a fan of Naughty by Nature in the 90's then you should be able to figure it out. Mr. Soft, according to Harbaugh's description is about four inches long and likes to spend his time lurking on the shoulders of overconfident football players and whispering sweet nothings into their ears about how wonderful they are and how easy the next game will be. Basically, he's a cross between your average 49ers fan on Twitter and Mr. Hankey the Christmas Poo, and his odor is more repugnant than both.
The 49ers, who enter Sunday's game against the 3-3 Cleveland Browns as 9-point favorites, have every reason in the world to be feeling rather good about themselves. They just finished a stretch of their schedule where even one win out of three against the Eagles, Buccaneers and Lions would've been considered a relative success and made them the prohibitive favorites to win the NFC West. Instead they went out and won all three, with the middle one against Tampa coming in rather convincing fashion. Then they had a bye week, which helped, according to Gen. Harbaugh, "Heal their wounds."
On the surface when you look at the match-ups, it's hard to imagine how the Browns could possibly score at all without the aid of turnovers. Receiver Mohamed Massaquoi will be out, as will workhorse Peyton Hillis, most likely. It's not like this bunch was a powderkeg offense before. The Browns are 27th in scoring (16.2), 23rd in total offense (308.3 yards), 22nd in passing (217.2 yards) and, surprisingly, 29th in rushing (91.2 yards). Second-year QB Colt McCoy is the spazziest signal caller back there outside of Arizona's Kevin Kolb.
McCoy doesn't possess a big arm and he certainly doesn't have any explosive receivers. It's a dink-and-dunk offense, the kind of outfit that can possess the ball for 43 minutes, as they did against the Seahawks last week, and yet somehow manage only six points.
Their saving grace, as with the 49ers, has been on the other side of the ball, where the Browns are fourth overall in yards allowed per game and first against the pass. 49ers Greg Roman praised the physicality of Cleveland's starting corners Sheldon Brown and Joe Haden and noted how their safeties are always in the right place. It's not a unit that's blessed with many dynamic play-makers, but one that dares you to have the patience to march down the field in 12 plays without making any mistakes (drops, penalties, missed blocks) or getting too greedy.
Basically it's the 49ers against the team everyone thought the 49ers would be. When you look at the yards the locals have gained and allowed, they really have no business being the fifth-highest scoring team in the league and second stingiest in being scored upon. The +8 turnover margin has helped, as have their boffo special teams of course. Coordinator Brad Seely, whom they poached away from the Browns, has been a godsend. While Harbaugh gets all the attention, it's Seely and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio's units who have gotten the real results.
That the Niners will have to march slowly to score shouldn't trouble them much since that's the only way they can move the ball anyway. They will welcome back Braylon Edwards against his former team to take some of the pressure off Alex Smith from having to force every pass to Michael Crabtree, but their inherent mismatch will be with tight ends Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker, as always. It won't always look pretty, but they'll cobble together the odd drive or three and it will dent the scoreboard just enough to keep your rowdies off Smith's back for another week.
Ol' Softie was last spotted in Jacksonville on Monday, where he ruined Harbaugh's brother John's evening but good. Can he fly cross-country in time to make this one sufficiently morbid? I'm thinking no, but that's because I've always been the pie-in-the-sky, wide-eyed optimist. Also, I have Davis on my fantasy team. Mainly it's because he's a fictional character conjured up by a man who, based on all available evidence, is clearly insane.
The Cardinal have had no problems beating up on the Washington States of the world, and Harbaugh's charges should have similar success against the Cougars' NFL equivalent in the Browns. And look at the bright side - If they blow it then everyone will think they stink again, and that's Harbaugh's comfort zone anyway. That's what we call a "win-win" in the biz.
Week 8 Picks
Indianapolis at Tennessee (-9): Here's when you know things are bad for your team: When you're a 9-point dog to a team that lost 41-7 at home the week before, who's star running back is averaging less than three yards per carry and whose best receiver is out for the season. I can't commit to the Titans giving that many points to anybody. Titans 19, Colts 13
New Orleans at St. Louis (+14): On one hand, that's a lot of points. On the other, A.J. Feeley will be getting another start and the Saints showed last week that they're not shy about handing out a proper drubbing if the opportunity's there. No Mark Ingram for the Saints means more pass attempts for Drew Brees against the world's slowest secondary. Saints 41, Rams 13
Miami at NY Giants (-10): Miami has been pretty good at hanging around in ballgames, and Eli Manning has an odd habit of keeping terrible teams in them too (see the Seattle debacle). Maybe a pouty Reggie Bush will be pumped up for this one. Giants 24, Dolphins 16
Minnesota at Carolina (-4): What's weirder if we looked at this match-up two months ago, the fact that the Panthers have a big quarterback edge in this game or that it would've been an even bigger edge if Donovan McNabb was still starting for the Vikings? Minnesota suspended Chris Cook -- with good reason -- so you wonder who'll be covering Steve Smith. Panthers 30, Vikings 20
Arizona at Baltimore (-13): O how the Ravens let me down Monday night. Yet another object lesson that I know a little tiny wee bit about the Niners and precious little about anything else. I still think they're pretty good, but that's because I'm stubborn and stupid. It would be hard to give them 13 points considering they only scored 7 the other night, but then I remember how terrible the Cardinals have been on east coast road trips. A shaky vote for Baltimore. Ravens 30, Cardinals 10
Jacksonville at Houston (-10): What's with all these huge point spreads? I'm gonna trust that Jags defense and Texans coach Gary Kubiak's wonkiness to keep it relatively close, to my great detriment I'm sure. I don't think Maurice Jones-Drew (whom I will nickname "Conveyor Belt" from now on after a story a colleague told me about him) is gonna fumble four times again, either. Texans 20, Jaguars 13
Washington at Buffalo (-6): The game's in Toronto, which probably drops the spread a point or two. The Bills are well rested and they know they have to make hay with the Jets coming on and the Bengals, Ravens and Raiders all in the wild card hunt. The Redskins are decimated and just about ready to fold, I think. Bills 27, Redskins 17
Detroit at Denver (+3): I'd like to think this line has more to do with the uncertainty in Detroit's quarterback situation than any misbegotten faith in Tim Tebow, but who knows how bettors think? As I recall, throwing a Christian to the Lions turned out rather one-sided. Lions 26, Broncos 10
Cleveland at San Francisco (-9): Barring a few egregious turnovers by one Alexander Douglas Smith, I can't imagine how Browns ever score in this one, yet I bet Grant Cohn $5 that Cleveland would have at least ten first downs anyway. 49ers 23, Browns 9
Cincinnati at Seattle (+3): I can't think of a single interesting thing to write about this ballgame. Why should it be different than any of the others? Seahawks 17, Bengals 13
New England at Pittsburgh (+3): I'd like to say I have no idea what's gonna happen and that I'd just like to see a good game but let's be real, the Patriots are gonna roll 'em in annoying Bradyesque fashion because that's what they always do to the Steelers. Also, I won't get to watch it live because of my dumb job. Patriots 34, Steelers 27
Dallas at Philadelphia (-4): Another one for the DVR. Always a fun time for me to try to get my postgame chores done at the 'Stick while the Iggles are on TV overhead. That point spread is ridiculous by the way. There is absolutely no basis for it whatsoever. So of course I'm picking them. Eagles 27, Cowboys 23
San Diego at Kansas City (+4): The Chiefs have won three in a row and always play the Chargers tough. Their crowd figures to be especially boisterous at home. Philip Rivers is slumping as badly as he has his whole career. Well, clearly I am incapable of learning things. Chargers 27, Chiefs 17
(HOLY BALLS I AM SO BAD AT THIS, I REALLY HOPE NOBODY IS GAMBLING ACTUAL MONEY BASED ON MY PICKS)
Last week's W-L: 6-7
Season W-L: 65-38
Week 7 Vs. Spread: 3-9-1
Season Vs. Spread: 39-58-6
Week 7 +/- Points (All games count as one point unless specified): -14
Season +/- Points: -26
Hence our introduction to Harbaugh's latest bit of paranoia: Freddy P. Soft. What the "P" stands for is not suitable to discuss in polite company, but if you were a fan of Naughty by Nature in the 90's then you should be able to figure it out. Mr. Soft, according to Harbaugh's description is about four inches long and likes to spend his time lurking on the shoulders of overconfident football players and whispering sweet nothings into their ears about how wonderful they are and how easy the next game will be. Basically, he's a cross between your average 49ers fan on Twitter and Mr. Hankey the Christmas Poo, and his odor is more repugnant than both.
The 49ers, who enter Sunday's game against the 3-3 Cleveland Browns as 9-point favorites, have every reason in the world to be feeling rather good about themselves. They just finished a stretch of their schedule where even one win out of three against the Eagles, Buccaneers and Lions would've been considered a relative success and made them the prohibitive favorites to win the NFC West. Instead they went out and won all three, with the middle one against Tampa coming in rather convincing fashion. Then they had a bye week, which helped, according to Gen. Harbaugh, "Heal their wounds."
On the surface when you look at the match-ups, it's hard to imagine how the Browns could possibly score at all without the aid of turnovers. Receiver Mohamed Massaquoi will be out, as will workhorse Peyton Hillis, most likely. It's not like this bunch was a powderkeg offense before. The Browns are 27th in scoring (16.2), 23rd in total offense (308.3 yards), 22nd in passing (217.2 yards) and, surprisingly, 29th in rushing (91.2 yards). Second-year QB Colt McCoy is the spazziest signal caller back there outside of Arizona's Kevin Kolb.
McCoy doesn't possess a big arm and he certainly doesn't have any explosive receivers. It's a dink-and-dunk offense, the kind of outfit that can possess the ball for 43 minutes, as they did against the Seahawks last week, and yet somehow manage only six points.
Their saving grace, as with the 49ers, has been on the other side of the ball, where the Browns are fourth overall in yards allowed per game and first against the pass. 49ers Greg Roman praised the physicality of Cleveland's starting corners Sheldon Brown and Joe Haden and noted how their safeties are always in the right place. It's not a unit that's blessed with many dynamic play-makers, but one that dares you to have the patience to march down the field in 12 plays without making any mistakes (drops, penalties, missed blocks) or getting too greedy.
Basically it's the 49ers against the team everyone thought the 49ers would be. When you look at the yards the locals have gained and allowed, they really have no business being the fifth-highest scoring team in the league and second stingiest in being scored upon. The +8 turnover margin has helped, as have their boffo special teams of course. Coordinator Brad Seely, whom they poached away from the Browns, has been a godsend. While Harbaugh gets all the attention, it's Seely and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio's units who have gotten the real results.
That the Niners will have to march slowly to score shouldn't trouble them much since that's the only way they can move the ball anyway. They will welcome back Braylon Edwards against his former team to take some of the pressure off Alex Smith from having to force every pass to Michael Crabtree, but their inherent mismatch will be with tight ends Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker, as always. It won't always look pretty, but they'll cobble together the odd drive or three and it will dent the scoreboard just enough to keep your rowdies off Smith's back for another week.
Ol' Softie was last spotted in Jacksonville on Monday, where he ruined Harbaugh's brother John's evening but good. Can he fly cross-country in time to make this one sufficiently morbid? I'm thinking no, but that's because I've always been the pie-in-the-sky, wide-eyed optimist. Also, I have Davis on my fantasy team. Mainly it's because he's a fictional character conjured up by a man who, based on all available evidence, is clearly insane.
The Cardinal have had no problems beating up on the Washington States of the world, and Harbaugh's charges should have similar success against the Cougars' NFL equivalent in the Browns. And look at the bright side - If they blow it then everyone will think they stink again, and that's Harbaugh's comfort zone anyway. That's what we call a "win-win" in the biz.
Week 8 Picks
Indianapolis at Tennessee (-9): Here's when you know things are bad for your team: When you're a 9-point dog to a team that lost 41-7 at home the week before, who's star running back is averaging less than three yards per carry and whose best receiver is out for the season. I can't commit to the Titans giving that many points to anybody. Titans 19, Colts 13
New Orleans at St. Louis (+14): On one hand, that's a lot of points. On the other, A.J. Feeley will be getting another start and the Saints showed last week that they're not shy about handing out a proper drubbing if the opportunity's there. No Mark Ingram for the Saints means more pass attempts for Drew Brees against the world's slowest secondary. Saints 41, Rams 13
Miami at NY Giants (-10): Miami has been pretty good at hanging around in ballgames, and Eli Manning has an odd habit of keeping terrible teams in them too (see the Seattle debacle). Maybe a pouty Reggie Bush will be pumped up for this one. Giants 24, Dolphins 16
Minnesota at Carolina (-4): What's weirder if we looked at this match-up two months ago, the fact that the Panthers have a big quarterback edge in this game or that it would've been an even bigger edge if Donovan McNabb was still starting for the Vikings? Minnesota suspended Chris Cook -- with good reason -- so you wonder who'll be covering Steve Smith. Panthers 30, Vikings 20
Arizona at Baltimore (-13): O how the Ravens let me down Monday night. Yet another object lesson that I know a little tiny wee bit about the Niners and precious little about anything else. I still think they're pretty good, but that's because I'm stubborn and stupid. It would be hard to give them 13 points considering they only scored 7 the other night, but then I remember how terrible the Cardinals have been on east coast road trips. A shaky vote for Baltimore. Ravens 30, Cardinals 10
Jacksonville at Houston (-10): What's with all these huge point spreads? I'm gonna trust that Jags defense and Texans coach Gary Kubiak's wonkiness to keep it relatively close, to my great detriment I'm sure. I don't think Maurice Jones-Drew (whom I will nickname "Conveyor Belt" from now on after a story a colleague told me about him) is gonna fumble four times again, either. Texans 20, Jaguars 13
Washington at Buffalo (-6): The game's in Toronto, which probably drops the spread a point or two. The Bills are well rested and they know they have to make hay with the Jets coming on and the Bengals, Ravens and Raiders all in the wild card hunt. The Redskins are decimated and just about ready to fold, I think. Bills 27, Redskins 17
Detroit at Denver (+3): I'd like to think this line has more to do with the uncertainty in Detroit's quarterback situation than any misbegotten faith in Tim Tebow, but who knows how bettors think? As I recall, throwing a Christian to the Lions turned out rather one-sided. Lions 26, Broncos 10
Cleveland at San Francisco (-9): Barring a few egregious turnovers by one Alexander Douglas Smith, I can't imagine how Browns ever score in this one, yet I bet Grant Cohn $5 that Cleveland would have at least ten first downs anyway. 49ers 23, Browns 9
Cincinnati at Seattle (+3): I can't think of a single interesting thing to write about this ballgame. Why should it be different than any of the others? Seahawks 17, Bengals 13
New England at Pittsburgh (+3): I'd like to say I have no idea what's gonna happen and that I'd just like to see a good game but let's be real, the Patriots are gonna roll 'em in annoying Bradyesque fashion because that's what they always do to the Steelers. Also, I won't get to watch it live because of my dumb job. Patriots 34, Steelers 27
Dallas at Philadelphia (-4): Another one for the DVR. Always a fun time for me to try to get my postgame chores done at the 'Stick while the Iggles are on TV overhead. That point spread is ridiculous by the way. There is absolutely no basis for it whatsoever. So of course I'm picking them. Eagles 27, Cowboys 23
San Diego at Kansas City (+4): The Chiefs have won three in a row and always play the Chargers tough. Their crowd figures to be especially boisterous at home. Philip Rivers is slumping as badly as he has his whole career. Well, clearly I am incapable of learning things. Chargers 27, Chiefs 17
(HOLY BALLS I AM SO BAD AT THIS, I REALLY HOPE NOBODY IS GAMBLING ACTUAL MONEY BASED ON MY PICKS)
Last week's W-L: 6-7
Season W-L: 65-38
Week 7 Vs. Spread: 3-9-1
Season Vs. Spread: 39-58-6
Week 7 +/- Points (All games count as one point unless specified): -14
Season +/- Points: -26
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