Ordinarily in this corner we don't rush to Alex Smith for juicy pregame quotes, but considering that the only alternative is one of Jim Harbaugh's thousand-yards-in-the-distance stares when asked anything more substantive than whether he has the time (answer: nope), we are left to turn our lonely hearts to the 49ers beleaguered quarterback.
So, take it away, Alex. How are you feeling going into the opener of what will be the seventh season of your heretofore Greek tragedy of a career?
"Excited. This is a huge game. I mean they are all huge games. This is number one. This starts it off. It’s a division game at home. Seattle coming down, a lot at stake and excited for it. I’m excited for the challenge."
Neat-o.
With all due respect, if the Seahawks pose as any kind of challenge to Smith and his mates, the 49ers will be in dire straights in 2011, just as they have been lo these past eight years. We're talking about a Seattle team whose offensive line has been in constant flux, whose best receiver last season -- Mike Williams -- was a castoff from the Detroit Lions and whose two best pass rushers -- Chris Clemons and Raheem Brock -- were little-used backups on their former teams. The Seahawks jettisoned quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, who was 34-year-old, brittle, and ten kinds of awful last season (12 TDs, 17 INT, 73.2 QB rating) and somehow got worse at the position, bringing in Tarvaris Jackson to replace him.
The Seahawks didn't do much of anything to upgrade what was the 27th-ranked defense in the league last season and by all appearances they seem to be if not flat out tanking for Andrew Luck then at least not terribly bothered by the perception of being among a handful of likely candidates for his services.
Despite all of that, it won't be easy for Smith to beat them on Sunday, because nothing has ever come easily for Smith during his 49ers career. After all, if he had played the way he's played for almost any other organization, he would've been told to hit the bricks a long time ago. Also, just about any other pro quarterback would've had the self-respect to leave for greener pastures with his dignity intact, defiantly thrusting his middle fingers at the vague direction of 4949 Centennial Blvd. as their private jet pointed him somewhere -- anywhere -- else.
No, it's never been easy for Smith, but more often than not it has been interesting in a morbid way, especially against Seattle.
In 2006 he went 2-0 against the defending conference champions, including a 24-14 win in week 15 at Seattle where he threw for two scores and scrambled for another. This was his second season, back when Norv Turner was his coordinator and Smith showed just enough promise that the fan-base was still mostly behind him.
In 2007, things turned sour. The forgettable Jim Hostler took over for Turner as offensive coordinator once Norville got hired to be the head whistle at San Diego, and though the team had a 2-1 record through three weeks, Smith's play had regressed from his sophomore season. In the fourth game against the Seahawks, he got flattened by defensive tackle Rocky Bernard and separated his right (throwing) shoulder. By all intents and purposes the injury should've knocked out Smith for a good long while, if not the whole season, but he was bullied into playing with it by former coach Mike Nolan just three weeks later, which only damaged it worse. Smith came back to play three terrible games where he hardly could throw at all before being shut down, and lost all of the 2008 year due to surgical complications.
In 2009, Smith didn't wrestle the starting job away from good friend Shaun Hill until the sixth game. In a crucial early December loss at Seattle he finally recorded his first 300-yard passing day in 36 starts and played quite well besides, but he was done in by a Frank Gore fumble and another on a punt return and poof went the 49ers division hopes.
Buoyed by Smith's play down the stretch and what looked by far like the best team in the division on paper, many expected the 49ers to make playoffs last year. The campaign was supposed to start with a laugher at Seattle, where an experienced Niners crew would teach a thing or two to Pete Carroll, who was returning to the NFL to coach the Seahawks after a long (and successful) sabbatical in the college ranks. Smith started well, but was off just enough to miss wide open receivers Joshua Morgan and Moran Norris in the end zone on a pair of early drives. The 49ers were up 6-0 20 minutes into the game when it should've been 17 or 21-0. Eventually the Seahawks warmed up, they took advantage of a rusty and unprepared Michael Crabtree and won going away 31-6.
Later in the same season, when all hope was mostly lost, Smith got a measure of revenge against the Seahawks, playing brilliantly and throwing three first-half touchdown passes en route to a 40-21 thumping of the visitors. It was the most points the 49ers franchise ever scored against Seattle, besting the efforts of any of those Joe Montana and Steve Young teams (albeit the 'Hawks were in the AFC back then and we didn't see them very often).
So here we go again, another season opener against the Seahawks, this time at the friendly confines of the 'Stick. More than any quarterback on the Sunday slate, Smith will be walking the proverbial tightrope. He absolutely needs to win this game, and hopefully look good while doing so.
He doesn't have poor coaching as an excuse anymore -- not only will Harbaugh, a former first-round pick himself be coaching him up between series, but he'll be personally relaying the play-calls into Smith's headset and giving him pointers and advice before every play. The past two head coaches Smith had either didn't even bother wearing the headphones when the offense was on the field (Nolan) or imparted useful advice such as "don't throw an interception." (Mike Singletary.)
The cast around him won't be an excuse either. Gore is back healthy and Kendall Hunter looks like a dynamic understudy. Vernon Davis remains one of the elite players at his position. Whereas last year they had to rush Crabtree onto the field and play him 65 snaps even though he missed all of preseason with a neck injury, this time the 49ers have Braylon Edwards to complement Morgan, giving them two starting-caliber receivers to play most of the snaps while Crabtree mixes in gradually and to his comfort level. It's true the offensive line has looked atrocious at times during the preseason, but generally they've been a group that plays far better at home than on the road and Seattle's pass-rush, which wasn't reminiscent of "The Fearsome Foursome" in the first place, will be further limited by Chris Clemons' wonky ankle.
It's true that there is potential for Seattle to score a few points of their own, even without Sidney Rice and road-grader Robert Gallery. The 49ers will start an entirely new secondary than the foursome that played most of the snaps in 2010. Corner Carlos Rogers and strong safety Donte Whitner were free agent additions penned into the starting lineup from day one, while free safety Madieu Williams -- another free agent -- plays in place of injured Dashon Goldson and Tarell Brown starts at the other corner spot in favor of Shawntae Spencer, who missed all of camp with a balky hamstring.
In fact, eight of the 11 49ers defenders who figure to play a lot on Sunday will be different than the ones who got the lion's share of the game reps the year before. There will be two new starting linebackers in NaVorro Bowman and Ahmad Brooks and first-round pick Aldon Smith will sub in for Parys Haralson in all passing situations. At the front line, Ray McDonald will replace the departed Aubrayo Franklin, causing Isaac Sopoaga to slide inside to nose tackle. Justin Smith and Patrick Willis will be the only constants.
The new-look 49ers defense will have youth and speed to its advantage, but with that youth comes inexperience. There doesn't seem to be anyone on the roster who can deal with Seattle tight end Zach Miller (Whitner gave up 10 touchdowns in coverage as a Buffalo Bill last year) and the Houston Texans showed during their preseason drubbing of San Francisco how vulnerable the 'backers could be to play-action passes. It also remains to be seen how staunch the front seven will be against the run. Can McDonald and Bowman plug the gaps inside the way Franklin and Takeo Spikes did?
Ultimately, I'm picking the 49ers to win -- by a score of 24-16 -- because they have to, they need to, and it just feels like they want to more. If I'm wrong, well, there's a first time for everything, I suppose.
Here's what I do know: If they somehow flub this game, then what's the point? They might as well start rookie Colin Kaepernick in week two and just use the rest of the season as a learning experience for him (and if that means 1-15 and Andrew Luck, so be it). The Seahawks at home might very well be the easiest game the 49ers will have on their schedule all year.
So yeah, darn tootin' you better be excited, Mr. Smith. It's only the most important game of your career.
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Other thoughts/picks for Week 1:
Philadelphia at St. Louis (+5): The Andy Reid/Marty Morhinweg combo are one of the best in the league when they have multiple weeks to game plan for somebody and Reid has a great track record against former pupils. Philadelphia's the speediest team in the league and now they play on the fast track in St. Louis? Yeah, I think I like 'em in this one. Eagles 34, Rams 17
Indianapolis at Houston (-9): The Colts have all the motivation in the world because everyone thinks they're doomed without Peyton Manning. What they don't have: Any talent besides Peyton Manning. Also, that coaching staff is about to get exposed in a bad way. Texans 27, Colts 13
Detroit at Tampa Bay (-1): I find this line kind of ridiculous, quite frankly. The Buccaneers and Josh Freeman get no respect. The guy had an incredible season last year and Detroit's secondary is awful until proven otherwise. Buccaneers 30, Lions 20 *THREE POINT SPECIAL*
Atlanta at Chicago (-3): I'm not high at all on the Falcons, mainly because I don't think any more highly of their defensive backs than Detroit's, but I'm even more down on the Bears, who might have the worst offensive line in the league. Falcons 20, Bears 13 *TWO POINT SPECIAL*
Cincinnati at Cleveland (-7): I think the Browns will improve and the Bengals will be among the worst teams in football, but Colt McCoy isn't that far removed from being a rookie himself and I'm not about to give him seven points against anyone but Kansas or Iowa State. Browns 17, Bengals 13
Buffalo at Kansas City (-6): I like Ryan Fitzpatrick more than most and I just have a hunch the Bills will have a frisky offense, even with a crummy line. The Chiefs offense looks hobbled at receiver, Matt Cassel has a broken rib and tight end Tony Moeaki is out for the year. A funky upset pick here. Bills 27, Chiefs 23
Tennessee at Jacksonville (-1): What a snoozer. Why can't both teams just started Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert? Sure, it'd still be a terrible game, but in an interesting way. Titans 27, Jaguars 10 *FOUR POINT SPECIAL*
Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-2): I picked the Ravens to make the Super Bowl. For them to get there, they'll have to win games like this. It's that simple. Ravens 23, Steelers 20
Carolina at Arizona (-7): I think the Panthers will finish with the worst record in the league if Cam Newton starts all 16 games. They can't draft a franchise QB three years in a row, can they? Cardinals 26, Panthers 9 *FIVE POINT SPECIAL*
Seattle at San Francisco (-6): See above. Six points is a lot though. I have no confidence in this pick.
Minnesota at San Diego (-9): I like the Chargers, but they typically start slow, and nine points against a team with Adrian Peterson on it is too rich for my blood. Chargers 26, Vikings 20
NY Giants at Washington (+3): The Giants have zero momentum headed into the game and their defense is so beat up at all three levels. If Washington can run the ball at all, they should spring the mild upset. Redskins 23, Giants 17
Dallas at NY Jets (-6): I'm high on the Jets, but it's a leap of faith to back them by almost a full touchdown against what could be a high-octane Dallas offense. Oh, what the hell. Jets 23, Cowboys 13
New England at Miami (+7): You know what this will be? It'll be one of those games where all the bettors will confidently pick the Patriots to win in a blow out and then get pissed as hell as New England sleepwalks through three quarters and Miami takes a three point lead late into the game. Then, just when everyone who bet on the Patriots will root for them to lose outright out of spite, of course Tom Brady will throw a touchdown pass to Wes Welker with like 58 seconds to go and they'll win by four, to piss off the bettors AND the people who hate them. That's what it will be. New England 24, Miami 20
Oakland at Denver (-3): I can see a close Broncos victory or a Raiders blowout. I'm going with the close Broncos victory. Denver 24, Oakland 19
W-L Record: 1-0
W-L Record Vs. Spread: 1-0
+/- Points (all games count as one unless specified): 1
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