Obviously we weren't allowed to watch practice, but during warmups several eagle-eyed reporters saw Michael Crabtree run one three-quarters speed route in warmups and then quickly take off his helmet and chat up trainer Jeff Ferguson. That can't be an encouraging sign. Crabtree only made it through one half on Sunday and said afterward that he thought he'd re-broken his foot. He wasn't walking with a limp when he was spotted earlier in the day, but walking and running are two different things. Expect this to be an ongoing issue for a while longer.
Coach Jim Harbaugh said there's a possibility that Kyle Williams will be up for this game, as insurance for Crabtree in case he can't make it all the way through if nothing else. I'm guessing Crabtree really wants to play in the game because it's A) the regular season and B) against his hometown Cowboys, but if he's limited at all, the team may be better off just going with Williams, who had a fabulous camp and is raring to go. At this point, how could he be a drop off at all from a hobbled Crabtree who's barely practiced at all in this offense?
Safety Dashon Goldson was in uniform and pads during practice, but not really participating in individual drills. It remains to be seen how active he'll be, but it's dangerous to play the Cowboys with a gimpy safety. Reggie Smith's first game back there as the nickel guy couldn't have been too encouraging either, so it's not an ideal situation.
******************************************************************************
Peelle in, Jones out, Practice Squad RB Shuffle
The 49ers signed tight end Justin Peelle, 32, a 6-4, 255 pound blocking specialist who’s a veteran of nine seasons with the San Diego Chargers, Miami Dolphins and Atlanta Falcons. The 49ers played with just two tight ends on the roster the first week in Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker, so they had to use a sixth offensive lineman in a lot of short-yardage situations that wound up being unsuccessful. Maybe with Peelle defenses will respect the run-pass option more and give Frank Gore a couple more inches of room to run. Or perhaps the coaching staff will be more willing to use the play-action in those formations and actually throw the ball. Peelle has 122 career receptions for 984 yards and 12 touchdowns and caught 10 balls for 96 yards and as score last year for Atlanta.
"Hopefully I'll get fed every once in a while, but normally my role has been to block the past couple years," said Peelle.
To make room for Peelle on the 53-man roster, the team waived rookie safety Colin Jones, their 6th round pick from TCU. As expected, he cleared waivers and is now on the practice squad.
The team also signed running back Ian Johnson, 25, to their practice squad. Johnson, who is 5-11 and 212 pounds, was signed as an undrafted free agent out of Boise State in 2009 by Minnesota and has spent time with the Arizona Cardinals, Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers organizations too, but has never been activated for the regular season. He had 36 carries for 130 yards this preseason for the Lions. Johnson is famous, of course, for proposing to a cheerleader (who was his longtime girlfriend) on national television immediately after scoring the game-winning two-point conversion in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl. He helped Boise State upset mighty Oklahoma by successfully running in a “Statue of Liberty” play. With the arrival of Johnson, running back Xavier Omon was released from the practice squad -- and quickly signed to Cleveland's.
********************************************************************************
Vernon Davis spoke of the looking forward to the challenge of going against Dallas' elite pass-rusher DeMarcus Ware, but Joe Staley had already thrown cold water on the notion earlier during his interview. Staley explained that Ware usually lines up on the opposite side from the tight end. In the frequent instances where the 49ers will go with two tight ends, you figure Ware will choose to go against Delanie Walker, who's a far worse blocker than Davis. Also, it's a good bet that Ware, who's never been much of a coverage guy to begin with, will want no part of Davis in that regard. The Cowboys will probably use a nickel corner or a safety on him, and perhaps some bracket coverage with an inside 'backer.
*****************************************************************************
Braylon Edwards filed a $14 million dollar lawsuit against a Michigan restaurant and three of its employees for slander, alleging that a team rescinded on a contract offer they put on the table with $15 million in guarantees because of the accusation the employees made of his direct involvement in an Aug. 1 incident between his entourage and some busboys. Edwards was already cleared of any wrongdoing after a police investigation. In the suit, Edwards claims that he had to settle for just a $1 million guaranteed contract with the 49ers because of these false accusations.
I wonder if he'll sue Alex Smith, Jim Harbaugh, Greg Roman and the offensive line for hurting his 2012 earning potential...
******************************************************************************
A look at the 49ers statistical rankings after Week 1.
49ers Offensive Rankings:
Rushing: 85.0 YPG (18th); Passing: 124.0 YPG (29th); Total: 209.0 YPG (31st); Points: 33.0 (7th).
Comment: One of these things is not like the other. Thanks, Ted Ginn!
49ers Defensive Rankings:
Rushing: 64.0 YPG (T-5th); Passing 155.0 YPG (T-5th); Total: 219.0 YPG (4th); Points: 17.0 (T-9th).
Comment: Patrick Willis always talks about wanting to be a top-10 defense, a top-5 defense. For once, 49ers come out and play like one. The Cowboys game will give them a much stiffer test, however.
49ers Special Teams Rankings:
Kickoff Return: 44.0 Avg (4th); Kickoff Return Allowed: 22.8 Avg (18th); Punt Return: 18.4 Avg (5th); Punt Return Allowed: 9.0 Avg (18th); Field Goal Percentage: 100.0 (T-1st); Net Punt Average: 54.2 Yards (1st).
It's tempting to say that new special teams coordinator Brad Seely has made difference right away, but he made his mark in the past for his kick coverage units, not the return game. I think Ginn just had a really good day and took advantage of a couple of mistakes from Seattle's Earl Thomas and Walter Thurmond, who were too overaggressive. Seely certainly has fabulous kickers to work with in Andy Lee and David Akers, so that part of the equation is easy to figure.
Giveaway/Takeaway:
Giveaways: 0 (T-1st); Takeaways: 3 (T-2nd); Plus/Minus: 3 (2nd).
Comment: Turnovers aren't always as relevant as people make them out to be. The 49ers got one on a Hail Mary at the end of the half and another on a fumble when the score was already 33-17 and there was a minute left on the clock. The most important number in this case was they didn't commit any.
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
Seahawks-49ers Thoughts, Week 1 NFL recap, Power Poll
How you view the 49ers game against Seattle depends purely on whether you're a glass half full or glass half empty person.
On one hand you can say that the bare bones conservative game plans on both sides of the ball was sound strategy. Why bust out the fine China when you're serving preseason leftovers? They didn't need to do anything fancy to beat the lowly Seahawks, so they saved it for when they will need to out-scheme somebody to win.
On the other hand, you can only hear the "oh, we'll show it later" line only so many times. Until they prove otherwise, the nagging suspicion is that this is what the 49ers are. If they're gonna get more exotic on one side of the ball, I'm guessing it will be the defense that sticks their toes in that pool first.
They have a slim chance of beating what will be a grouchy Cowboys team next Sunday as it is if they go all out, but if they try replicate this approach against Dallas it's going to get real ugly, real quick.
What I liked:
1. I thought the front seven was outstanding against Seattle (albeit against an offensive line starting three guys making their NFL debuts and with just 27 games of experience total), especially the defensive line. I've knocked the 49ers plenty for signing Ray McDonald to a five-year, $20 million contract after he showed nothing for four seasons, but McDonald certainly looked like a player on Sunday. Not only did he get plenty of push in the pocket, but he was tied for the team lead with six tackles. His perceived inability to play the run was the reason he was on the bench in favor of Isaac Sopoaga, but McDonald had no such problems against the Seahawks. Justin Smith was a beast as usual and had two sacks.
What I really liked was the rotation system the coaches used. Ricky Jean Francois and Will Tukuafu both got regular reps and contributed. I was a bit surprised Demarcus Dobbs was inactive, but all the reserves have to be able to contribute on special teams and Tukuafu has more experience there.
Overall the front seven sacked Tarvaris Jackson five times without blitzing much, forced and recovered two fumbles (both on sacks from Parys Haralson), held Seattle to just 64 rushing yards and 2.9 yards per carry, showing no ill effects from the loss of Aubrayo Franklin and Takeo Spikes to free agency. Ahmad Brooks was quiet on the stat sheet but he set the edge well in the run game and just about all of Seattle's gains in the running game came on Haralson's side. NaVarro Bowman was very active and had a great first half. Patrick Willis didn't dominate, but he laid a couple of shots on Jackson and Justin Forsett to force a pair of incomplete passes.
2. Jim Harbaugh got Alex Smith to using one of his best assets -- his legs. People forget that this guy had great rushing numbers at Utah and showed flashes of scrambling ability in 2006 and very early in 2007 before he suffered that separated shoulder. Smith's a little older now, and no one will confuse him for Michael Vick, but once he escapes the pocket he's fast enough to not be chased down from behind by the trailing linemen and linebackers. Instead of being a sitting duck in the pocket when protection breaks down, Smith took off against Seattle and gained whatever he could get. Sure, it's dangerous for a quarterback to dive into two people at the end zone or to be used as a lead blocker on toss plays, but Smith suffered his career-changing injury in the pocket and quarterbacks get hurt a lot more back there than when they're ball carriers. Besides, as Smith showed multiple times on Sunday, he's plenty athletic enough to slide correctly. He looks smooth doing it.
3. No foolishness. It didn't look pretty, but at least the 49ers didn't embarrass themselves out there the way they had in past seasons. There were no issues getting the plays in on time. No emotional outbursts or yelling matches on the sidelines. No obvious strategical gaffes. Nothing Seattle did that the 49ers weren't ready for. Numerous 49ers said after the game that what they appreciated the most about Harbaugh, even more than his football acumen, was that he's the exact same guy Monday-Saturday that he is on Sunday. He makes his points when he's upset, but he's not a screamer. He can offer constructive coaching tips instead of just mindless yelling and hollering.
Most of all, and Harbaugh has shown this all training camp and preseason, is he's not going to hang out anyone out to dry. No matter how bad one unit of the team or an individual plays, Harbaugh won't admit it publicly. He'll say a guy is playing swell and the coaches love him and then quietly bench him a week later with no notice to us. It won't make him popular with the media, but his locker room will appreciate it.
4. No dependance on Crabtree. Not by the coaching staff or by Alex Smith. The former played him about 2/3 of the snaps in the first half, but a lot of those were running plays. They saw he was limping around and not running well and they benched him in the second half.
As for Smith, it was obviously a mistake on his part to miss a wide-open Crabtree in the end zone in the 2nd quarter, but I liked that he only looked Crabtree's way twice in the game. Last year in the season opener he threw to Crabtree plenty even though the receiver had missed the whole preseason with a neck injury and it was clear he wasn't ready to play. He didn't know all his routes and a couple balls clanked off his hands. Now, Smith is secure enough to make Crab prove to him that he knows what he's doing. Smith has other options in Vernon Davis, in Braylon Edwards and Joshua Morgan. Crabtree has to earn his quarterback's trust.
5. The special teams, obviously. David Akers was 4-for-4 on field goals, Andy Lee had a record-setting day in punting average for a guy with a minimum of four in a game and Ted Ginn had two scores and set a 49ers record for return yardage with 268. What's not to like? Seattle's averages of 22.8 yards on kickoff returns and 9 yards on punt returns weren't bad, but their longest return was 28 yards, which is perfectly fine.
On Ginn's kickoff return touchdown, the Niners had a left return set up and Seattle's two guys on the right, corner Walter Thurmond and safety Earl Thomas, cheated toward the middle and lost backside containment. Ginn saw it and cut back to the right quickly and Colin Jones sealed his guy inside. Thurmond was sucked in too far and Thomas lost the footrace. On the punt return, Tramaine Brock had the initial block to take care of the first man and then Shawntae Spencer got in the way of the last guy at the middle of the field. No one else had a chance.
What I didn't like:
1. Too many dinky college plays. By that I mean the misdirection tosses to Frank Gore with Smith lead blocking, the backside screen to Davis and the bubble screen to Joshua Morgan. All these passes at the line of scrimmage might work against Washington State, but NFL defenders are too fast. Even if they work once, they'll never work again the rest of the year because people will scout it. For a supposed west coast team I sure didn't see many slants or crossing routes out there. It was a lot of short hitches. There was one nice route combination with Crabtree running a post to clear the deep crossing route for Davis, but otherwise it was a bunch of plays designed to get five yards and get tackled immediately.
2. Not trusting Smith on 3rd down. It's silly to expect Frank Gore to gain enough yardage on a draw on 3rd-and-long. The 49ers aren't the Packers or Eagles. Defenses don't respect their QB or the speed of their receivers to totally sell out against the pass. As long as Gore is out there, he will always be the primary focus of the defense, regardless of down and distance. If any team can get away with a play-action on 3rd-and-long, it should be the 49ers. Instead they're running draws. Hopefully it was all a set-up for Week 2.
3. Where was Kendall Hunter? Just two carries for the rookie. Removing him from kickoff return duty is one thing, but giving Gore 22 carries to two for Hunter is just silly. It's a long season and you just gave Gore an extension with some decent guaranteed money, why wear him down by relentlessly hammering him into nine-man lines? How about Anthony Dixon for some of those short-yardage carries. Why is he on the roster if you won't use him there? Why is he even dressed?
4. Too much Moran Norris. 32 snaps in fact. He was god awful, missing blocks left and right. Bruce Miller didn't play one snap on offense. I don't remember how many times the 49ers played a power formation with six linemen, Davis, one receiver and two backs. But it almost never worked. Seattle always had more guys at the line than the 49ers could block. Seriously, knock that stuff off. Look at the Singletary tapes from the last two years. It's not about technique or will or any of that crap. You can't run against nine man fronts in the NFL.
5. Bad run blocking. Norris was by no means the only culprit. Really Joe Staley was the only lineman out there who looked worth a damn. Mike Iupati is supposed to be this road grader, and I just haven't seen it from him in camp or preseason and certainly not on Sunday. Chilo Rachal and Anthony Davis have been hit or miss and on Sunday they both missed, getting no push at all and outright whiffing on some blocks.
***************************************************************************
Thoughts after Week 1...
Eagles 31, Rams 13 (+5)... What I wrote before the game:
A little early vindication for the "Dream Team" against their critics. Forget the bunk about it being a road game. Anytime the fastest team in football plays in a dome, I'm gonna like their chances. They are vulnerable to the run to be sure, but screw that noise, this is a passing league (I guess the bay area never got the memo on that one).
Texans 34, Colts 7 (+9)... What I said:
Houston had all their points in the first half and thoroughly outclassed the Colts in every way imaginable despite not having Arian Foster available and having gotten only a pedestrian performance from Matt Schaub. I really thought Indy would come out with more fire, but they were zombies out there without Manning, only waking up after the Texans had already made their point.
Detroit 27, Tampa Bay 20 (-1)... What I said:
Oops. Mayhaps I overestimated Tampa Bay's defensive line a bit. They hardly laid a finger on Matt Stafford. The Lions showed a versatile, balanced attack, blending three receivers (not even counting rookie Titus Young), two tight ends and three backs seamlessly so the Bucs defense never knew what was coming. I don't really blame Raheem Morris for only giving LeGarette Blount five carries. Against Detroit you want to go after that secondary. For whatever reason, Freeman looked a little off and took too long to warm up, and even missed a few plays with leg craps (which affected Stafford too).
Chicago 30, Atlanta 12 (-3)... What I said:
Well, I got the Atlanta part of it right at least. For what it's worth, Jay Cutler did get sacked five times in this game and had a late pick-six, but it still didn't matter. Chicago's defense was frisky enough to force a few turnovers -- Charles Tillman might be better at popping the ball loose than any corner in NFL history -- and Cutler let it go enough times to throw for 300 yards, finding Matt Forte and Devin Hester for a couple of long catch-and-runs. Matt Ryan got sacked five times in this one too, gang. The Falcons are overrated.
Cincinnati 27, Cleveland 17 (-7)... What I said:
He only played for a half before hurting his wrist, but rookie Andy Dalton for the Bengals looked calm and poised in the pocket while McCoy, the second year guy looked skittish and often threw off his back foot. He only got going once he got out of the pocket and threw on the run. The Browns had had 1st-and-goal at the 1 with a 14-13 lead and had to settle for a field goal. They had three more drives after that to extend the lead and couldn't do so. They kept the Bengals in the game long enough and it cost them. Besides Dalton, what impressed me about Cincy was their defense, as their front seven did a lot better job of shutting down the run and bringing the heat on McCoy than I thought they would.
Buffalo 41, Kansas City 7 (-6)... What I said:
The way the Bills decimated the Chiefs, at Arrowhead no less, it sure didn't look like an upset. Fitzpatrick is a legitimate quarterback who's come into his own. If he has time to throw he's dangerous and the Chiefs had nobody besides Tamba Hali to bother him. Kansas City is a running team built to play with a lead. The Bills defense with Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus, are built to shut down the run. Bad match-up for KC.
Jacksonville 16, Tennessee 14 (+1)...
I stand by all those statements. I don't care if he ended his holdout three minutes before kickoff, if you're the Titans you have to give the ball to Chris Johnson more. What other options do you have? Matt Hasselbeck looks just about done.
Baltimore 35, Pittsburgh (+2)... What I said:
It was easy to see who was more inspired to play this game. The Ravens sacked Big Ben four times, picked him off thrice and forced seven turnovers in all. Tarell Suggs was a beast all game long with a hat trick of sacks and Ed Reed had two picks and dropped a third. On offense, the Ravens didn't get anything out of Lee Evans or Torrey Smith, but they've found something with the tight end tandem Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta. They're not quite what Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are for the Patriots, but they're getting closer. Also, for no reason whatsoever, they ran a trick play for a two-point conversion to make it a 29-7 game. Oh those Harbaughs... what's their deal?
Arizona 28, Carolina 21 (+7)... What I said:
Well... uh... they lost, didn't they? Obviously Newton was spectacular in the game and he threw for the most yards of any rookie QB making his debut in NFL history, but did you see that Arizona defense? My god, they have no pass rush. Another rookie, Patrick Peterson, scored the winning touchdown on a punt return, but as a corner he looked fairly raw. I was surprised the Panthers didn't run more to protect Newton. They've got two good backs and gave DeAngelo Williams all that money, but I guess he doesn't need protecting, just throwing bombs out of the gate. The Cardinals with Kevin Kolb throwing and Beanie Wells running looked as good as advertised offensively, but they've got problems.
San Diego 24, Minnesota 17 (+9)... What I said:
I didn't exactly foresee 39 passing yards for Donovan McNabb, and Philip Rivers played a bit worse than I would've thought, but yeah, pretty much par for the course. The Vikings o-line had a lot of trouble keeping pass rushers at bay and a hurried McNabb had no rhythm with his receivers. Rivers kept it pretty simple, with a lot of checkdowns and dump-offs to Antonio Gates but it was enough to win, even if it didn't always look pretty.
Washington 28, NY Giants 14 (-3)... What I said:
Rex Grossman passed for 300 yards, so I rest my case. The Redskins usually look frisky early before losing a couple of close games in mid-season and then losing their spirit shortly after. The Giants have the look of that team this year, you know, the one that has 20 names on the injured reserve list.
NY Jets 27, Dallas 24 (+6)... What I said:
Should've listened to my (ample) gut. The Cowboys Romoed themselves again, but it wasn't Tony's fault that Witten didn't try out-muscling Jim Leonhard into the end zone or that nobody blocked Joe McKnight on a fourth quarter punt. The fact is Dallas probably would've won the game going away if Dez Bryant didn't suffer some cramping and a couple of their DBs didn't get hurt, but those things happen. They still look pretty dangerous, albeit as mentally soft as always.
New England 38, Miami 24 (+7)... What I said:
Brady threw a fairly late TD pass to Welker, but it wasn't a game-winner and the Patriots -- well their offense at least -- certainly didn't sleepwalk during the game. The Jets showed in the playoffs that Brady can be confused if you drop eight in coverage, but if you send four or five all night like Miami did and don't touch him? Forget it. It might have been a closer game if the Dolphins had some better play-calling in the red zone. Chad Henne certainly didn't look like a joke to me, though I can't say the same for their safeties.
Oakland 23, Denver 20 (-3)... What I said: "I can see a close Broncos victory or a Raiders blowout." Denver 24, Oakland 19.
And I would've gotten away with it if it wasn't for that dang Kyle Orton and that wet ball. D'oh. Seriously though, what an ugly game. Just completely unwatchable with all those penalties. Darren McFadden is an absolute beast but without a passing game to rely on, the Raiders will get exposed soon enough.
W-L Record: 11-5
W-L Record Vs. Spread: 8-7-1
+/- Points (all games count as one unless specified): -5. TERRIBLE.
****************************************************************************
Power Poll:
1. Green Bay (1-0): Didn't exactly look like a championship defense in their opener, but Brees likes to get rid of it quick.
2. Baltimore (1-0): Steelers have allowed 100-yard rusher twice in 52 games. Both times, it was Ray Rice, the most complete back in football.
3. New England (1-0): Similar to Packers -- offense looks unstoppable, pass defense looks spotty. I like Green Bay's personnel at WR, DB a lot more though.
4. Philadelphia (1-0): They're like a baseball team with a great bullpen. You give those pass rushers and corners a 10 point lead, the game's over.
5. San Diego (1-0): They'll always cobble together a passing game with Rivers, but pass rush's dominance surprised me. Losing Luis Castillo is a big blow.
6. NY Jets (1-0): A bit of a lucky win to be sure, but impressive nonetheless without a running game. They got good pressure on Romo.
7. New Orleans (0-1): No shame in losing to Super Bowl champs on the road, but their secondary stinks. Can't they do better than Roman Harper?
8. Chicago (1-0): By hook or by crook they did host NFC title game last year and looked good against Atlanta. Let's see how they do against Saints.
9. Detroit (1-0): A bit too reliant on Jahvid Best late when they still had Maurice Morris and Jerome Harrison. Great game from the offensive line.
10. Buffalo (1-0): Running game more effective now that they stopped forcing half the carries to C.J. Spiller and gave them to Fred Jackson.
11. Houston (1-0): Great first half, bleh second half against Indy, but what does it mean? They might've beaten the worst team in the league. Need more info.
12. Pittsburgh (0-1): They only get this spot out of respect, not merit. Troy Polamalu got that contract for past accomplishments, not future ones.
13. Dallas (0-1): Shaky offensive line, inconsistent secondary, enigmatic receiver, and it still took a Romo choke for them to lose. Same ol' Cowboys.
14. Atlanta (0-1): Good passing game with Matt Ryan, good runner in Michael Turner, OK pass rush, so how'd they get crushed? Team is less than sum of parts.
15. Washington (1-0): They didn't show many holes, but it's early. Not sure I can trust their pass rush or their offensive line for the long term.
16. Tampa Bay (0-1): Almost made an impressive comeback against Lions. They're a young, talented bunch, but still suffering some growing pains.
17. St. Louis (0-1): Injuries to corner Ron Bartell, Denny Amendola and Steven Jackson. Sam Bradford has a sore finger. Otherwise they're in good shape.
18. NY Giants (0-1): The battered defense desperately needs the running game to carry them. Eli Manning might too. They're on the brink of disaster.
19. San Francisco (1-0): Dominating special teams, great run defense, consistent pressure from base four man rush. That's all great, but preseason just ended.
20. Oakland (1-0): Stop me if you've heard this before -- Raiders need to find a passing game, clean up penalties.
21. Arizona (1-0): If they don't find a way to pressure the quarterback, they're gonna give up some "fortyburgers" whenever they play someone outside of division.
22. Miami (0-1): The offense looked like it had a pulse, at least. Tough to gauge defense against Tom Brady and Co. Cramping problems in Florida humidity.
23. Cincinnati (1-0): This might be their high point in the power poll, but you never know. They've got Broncos coming up. I like Andy Dalton.
24. Cleveland (0-1): It's year two, Colt McCoy. Quit looking like such a spaz in the pocket. And tell your defense to line up in time for the snap.
25. Minnesota (0-1): I'm guessing they'll come out throwing next week, just to spare Donovan McNabb the humiliation. Home against Tampa? Interesting game.
26. Carolina (0-1): Yes, Cam Newton looked great, but they might not play a worse defense all year. Plus, they lost Jon Beason for the year.
27. Jacksonville (1-0): It's not fair, but probably honest, if I put Tennessee ahead of them. I mean, what did they show, really?
28. Tennessee (0-1): Well, they showed they were better on Sunday than Tennessee, jackass.
29. Denver (0-1): They need to find a back from somewhere. Knowshon Moreno is a bust. He just is. Just admit it to yourselves already.
30. Kansas City (0-1): The anti-Eagles. You get them down a touchdown and that's the ballgame. Lost Eric Barry, so below average secondary gets worse.
31. Seattle (0-1): Showed some second-half spunkiness at SF, but their offensive line has a lot of problems and their kick coverage was a joke.
32. Indianapolis (0-1): Embarrassing. They've got five great players and 40 awful ones. How does a GM build a team like that? This isn't fantasy football.
********************************************************************************
Three teams that might be better than I thought:
3) Buffalo: I don't care that it was just Kansas City. It was still 41-7 and it was on the road in a tough place to play. The Bills have the potential for a balanced offense, which is fairly rare in the NFL and they can stop the run, which helps. Home against Oakland on Sunday, so a great chance for a 2-0 start.
2) Detroit: The jury is still out on Jahvid Best, who doesn't have great acceleration, but I was surprised how easily they won at Tampa.
1) Chicago: The Bears might be one of those teams we don't want to be good, so we look for nits to pick. If Jay Cutler is upright, they'll be in every game.
Three teams that might be worse than I thought:
3) Pittsburgh: Not competitive at all at Baltimore. Tackle Willie Colon out for the year. Mike Wallace only playmaker on offense. Defense looks very old.
2) Kansas City: If Jamaal Charles isn't going off, their goose is cooked. Are they tuning out Todd Haley already?
1) Atlanta: Something is off about them besides just the secondary. I'll be watching closely Sunday night against Philly.
On one hand you can say that the bare bones conservative game plans on both sides of the ball was sound strategy. Why bust out the fine China when you're serving preseason leftovers? They didn't need to do anything fancy to beat the lowly Seahawks, so they saved it for when they will need to out-scheme somebody to win.
On the other hand, you can only hear the "oh, we'll show it later" line only so many times. Until they prove otherwise, the nagging suspicion is that this is what the 49ers are. If they're gonna get more exotic on one side of the ball, I'm guessing it will be the defense that sticks their toes in that pool first.
They have a slim chance of beating what will be a grouchy Cowboys team next Sunday as it is if they go all out, but if they try replicate this approach against Dallas it's going to get real ugly, real quick.
What I liked:
1. I thought the front seven was outstanding against Seattle (albeit against an offensive line starting three guys making their NFL debuts and with just 27 games of experience total), especially the defensive line. I've knocked the 49ers plenty for signing Ray McDonald to a five-year, $20 million contract after he showed nothing for four seasons, but McDonald certainly looked like a player on Sunday. Not only did he get plenty of push in the pocket, but he was tied for the team lead with six tackles. His perceived inability to play the run was the reason he was on the bench in favor of Isaac Sopoaga, but McDonald had no such problems against the Seahawks. Justin Smith was a beast as usual and had two sacks.
What I really liked was the rotation system the coaches used. Ricky Jean Francois and Will Tukuafu both got regular reps and contributed. I was a bit surprised Demarcus Dobbs was inactive, but all the reserves have to be able to contribute on special teams and Tukuafu has more experience there.
Overall the front seven sacked Tarvaris Jackson five times without blitzing much, forced and recovered two fumbles (both on sacks from Parys Haralson), held Seattle to just 64 rushing yards and 2.9 yards per carry, showing no ill effects from the loss of Aubrayo Franklin and Takeo Spikes to free agency. Ahmad Brooks was quiet on the stat sheet but he set the edge well in the run game and just about all of Seattle's gains in the running game came on Haralson's side. NaVarro Bowman was very active and had a great first half. Patrick Willis didn't dominate, but he laid a couple of shots on Jackson and Justin Forsett to force a pair of incomplete passes.
2. Jim Harbaugh got Alex Smith to using one of his best assets -- his legs. People forget that this guy had great rushing numbers at Utah and showed flashes of scrambling ability in 2006 and very early in 2007 before he suffered that separated shoulder. Smith's a little older now, and no one will confuse him for Michael Vick, but once he escapes the pocket he's fast enough to not be chased down from behind by the trailing linemen and linebackers. Instead of being a sitting duck in the pocket when protection breaks down, Smith took off against Seattle and gained whatever he could get. Sure, it's dangerous for a quarterback to dive into two people at the end zone or to be used as a lead blocker on toss plays, but Smith suffered his career-changing injury in the pocket and quarterbacks get hurt a lot more back there than when they're ball carriers. Besides, as Smith showed multiple times on Sunday, he's plenty athletic enough to slide correctly. He looks smooth doing it.
3. No foolishness. It didn't look pretty, but at least the 49ers didn't embarrass themselves out there the way they had in past seasons. There were no issues getting the plays in on time. No emotional outbursts or yelling matches on the sidelines. No obvious strategical gaffes. Nothing Seattle did that the 49ers weren't ready for. Numerous 49ers said after the game that what they appreciated the most about Harbaugh, even more than his football acumen, was that he's the exact same guy Monday-Saturday that he is on Sunday. He makes his points when he's upset, but he's not a screamer. He can offer constructive coaching tips instead of just mindless yelling and hollering.
Most of all, and Harbaugh has shown this all training camp and preseason, is he's not going to hang out anyone out to dry. No matter how bad one unit of the team or an individual plays, Harbaugh won't admit it publicly. He'll say a guy is playing swell and the coaches love him and then quietly bench him a week later with no notice to us. It won't make him popular with the media, but his locker room will appreciate it.
4. No dependance on Crabtree. Not by the coaching staff or by Alex Smith. The former played him about 2/3 of the snaps in the first half, but a lot of those were running plays. They saw he was limping around and not running well and they benched him in the second half.
As for Smith, it was obviously a mistake on his part to miss a wide-open Crabtree in the end zone in the 2nd quarter, but I liked that he only looked Crabtree's way twice in the game. Last year in the season opener he threw to Crabtree plenty even though the receiver had missed the whole preseason with a neck injury and it was clear he wasn't ready to play. He didn't know all his routes and a couple balls clanked off his hands. Now, Smith is secure enough to make Crab prove to him that he knows what he's doing. Smith has other options in Vernon Davis, in Braylon Edwards and Joshua Morgan. Crabtree has to earn his quarterback's trust.
5. The special teams, obviously. David Akers was 4-for-4 on field goals, Andy Lee had a record-setting day in punting average for a guy with a minimum of four in a game and Ted Ginn had two scores and set a 49ers record for return yardage with 268. What's not to like? Seattle's averages of 22.8 yards on kickoff returns and 9 yards on punt returns weren't bad, but their longest return was 28 yards, which is perfectly fine.
On Ginn's kickoff return touchdown, the Niners had a left return set up and Seattle's two guys on the right, corner Walter Thurmond and safety Earl Thomas, cheated toward the middle and lost backside containment. Ginn saw it and cut back to the right quickly and Colin Jones sealed his guy inside. Thurmond was sucked in too far and Thomas lost the footrace. On the punt return, Tramaine Brock had the initial block to take care of the first man and then Shawntae Spencer got in the way of the last guy at the middle of the field. No one else had a chance.
What I didn't like:
1. Too many dinky college plays. By that I mean the misdirection tosses to Frank Gore with Smith lead blocking, the backside screen to Davis and the bubble screen to Joshua Morgan. All these passes at the line of scrimmage might work against Washington State, but NFL defenders are too fast. Even if they work once, they'll never work again the rest of the year because people will scout it. For a supposed west coast team I sure didn't see many slants or crossing routes out there. It was a lot of short hitches. There was one nice route combination with Crabtree running a post to clear the deep crossing route for Davis, but otherwise it was a bunch of plays designed to get five yards and get tackled immediately.
2. Not trusting Smith on 3rd down. It's silly to expect Frank Gore to gain enough yardage on a draw on 3rd-and-long. The 49ers aren't the Packers or Eagles. Defenses don't respect their QB or the speed of their receivers to totally sell out against the pass. As long as Gore is out there, he will always be the primary focus of the defense, regardless of down and distance. If any team can get away with a play-action on 3rd-and-long, it should be the 49ers. Instead they're running draws. Hopefully it was all a set-up for Week 2.
3. Where was Kendall Hunter? Just two carries for the rookie. Removing him from kickoff return duty is one thing, but giving Gore 22 carries to two for Hunter is just silly. It's a long season and you just gave Gore an extension with some decent guaranteed money, why wear him down by relentlessly hammering him into nine-man lines? How about Anthony Dixon for some of those short-yardage carries. Why is he on the roster if you won't use him there? Why is he even dressed?
4. Too much Moran Norris. 32 snaps in fact. He was god awful, missing blocks left and right. Bruce Miller didn't play one snap on offense. I don't remember how many times the 49ers played a power formation with six linemen, Davis, one receiver and two backs. But it almost never worked. Seattle always had more guys at the line than the 49ers could block. Seriously, knock that stuff off. Look at the Singletary tapes from the last two years. It's not about technique or will or any of that crap. You can't run against nine man fronts in the NFL.
5. Bad run blocking. Norris was by no means the only culprit. Really Joe Staley was the only lineman out there who looked worth a damn. Mike Iupati is supposed to be this road grader, and I just haven't seen it from him in camp or preseason and certainly not on Sunday. Chilo Rachal and Anthony Davis have been hit or miss and on Sunday they both missed, getting no push at all and outright whiffing on some blocks.
***************************************************************************
Thoughts after Week 1...
Eagles 31, Rams 13 (+5)... What I wrote before the game:
"Philadelphia's the speediest team in the league and now they play on the fast track in St. Louis? Yeah, I think I like 'em in this one." Eagles 34, Rams 17."
A little early vindication for the "Dream Team" against their critics. Forget the bunk about it being a road game. Anytime the fastest team in football plays in a dome, I'm gonna like their chances. They are vulnerable to the run to be sure, but screw that noise, this is a passing league (I guess the bay area never got the memo on that one).
Texans 34, Colts 7 (+9)... What I said:
"What they don't have: Any talent besides Peyton Manning. Also, that coaching staff is about to get exposed in a bad way." Texans 27, Colts 13.
Houston had all their points in the first half and thoroughly outclassed the Colts in every way imaginable despite not having Arian Foster available and having gotten only a pedestrian performance from Matt Schaub. I really thought Indy would come out with more fire, but they were zombies out there without Manning, only waking up after the Texans had already made their point.
Detroit 27, Tampa Bay 20 (-1)... What I said:
"I find this line kind of ridiculous, quite frankly. The Buccaneers and Josh Freeman get no respect." Buccaneers 30, Lions 20 *THREE POINT SPECIAL.*
Oops. Mayhaps I overestimated Tampa Bay's defensive line a bit. They hardly laid a finger on Matt Stafford. The Lions showed a versatile, balanced attack, blending three receivers (not even counting rookie Titus Young), two tight ends and three backs seamlessly so the Bucs defense never knew what was coming. I don't really blame Raheem Morris for only giving LeGarette Blount five carries. Against Detroit you want to go after that secondary. For whatever reason, Freeman looked a little off and took too long to warm up, and even missed a few plays with leg craps (which affected Stafford too).
Chicago 30, Atlanta 12 (-3)... What I said:
"I'm not high at all on the Falcons, mainly because I don't think any more highly of their defensive backs than Detroit's, but I'm even more down on the Bears, who might have the worst offensive line in the league." Falcons 20, Bears 13 *TWO POINT SPECIAL.*
Well, I got the Atlanta part of it right at least. For what it's worth, Jay Cutler did get sacked five times in this game and had a late pick-six, but it still didn't matter. Chicago's defense was frisky enough to force a few turnovers -- Charles Tillman might be better at popping the ball loose than any corner in NFL history -- and Cutler let it go enough times to throw for 300 yards, finding Matt Forte and Devin Hester for a couple of long catch-and-runs. Matt Ryan got sacked five times in this one too, gang. The Falcons are overrated.
Cincinnati 27, Cleveland 17 (-7)... What I said:
"Colt McCoy isn't that far removed from being a rookie himself and I'm not about to give him seven points against anyone but Kansas or Iowa State." Browns 17, Bengals 13.
He only played for a half before hurting his wrist, but rookie Andy Dalton for the Bengals looked calm and poised in the pocket while McCoy, the second year guy looked skittish and often threw off his back foot. He only got going once he got out of the pocket and threw on the run. The Browns had had 1st-and-goal at the 1 with a 14-13 lead and had to settle for a field goal. They had three more drives after that to extend the lead and couldn't do so. They kept the Bengals in the game long enough and it cost them. Besides Dalton, what impressed me about Cincy was their defense, as their front seven did a lot better job of shutting down the run and bringing the heat on McCoy than I thought they would.
Buffalo 41, Kansas City 7 (-6)... What I said:
"I like Ryan Fitzpatrick more than most and I just have a hunch the Bills will have a frisky offense, even with a crummy line. A funky upset pick here." Bills 27, Chiefs 23.
The way the Bills decimated the Chiefs, at Arrowhead no less, it sure didn't look like an upset. Fitzpatrick is a legitimate quarterback who's come into his own. If he has time to throw he's dangerous and the Chiefs had nobody besides Tamba Hali to bother him. Kansas City is a running team built to play with a lead. The Bills defense with Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus, are built to shut down the run. Bad match-up for KC.
Jacksonville 16, Tennessee 14 (+1)...
"What a snoozer. Why can't both teams just started Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert? Sure, it'd still be a terrible game, but in an interesting way." Titans 27, Jaguars 10 *FOUR POINT SPECIAL.*
I stand by all those statements. I don't care if he ended his holdout three minutes before kickoff, if you're the Titans you have to give the ball to Chris Johnson more. What other options do you have? Matt Hasselbeck looks just about done.
Baltimore 35, Pittsburgh (+2)... What I said:
"I picked the Ravens to make the Super Bowl. For them to get there, they'll have to win games like this." Ravens 23, Steelers 20.
It was easy to see who was more inspired to play this game. The Ravens sacked Big Ben four times, picked him off thrice and forced seven turnovers in all. Tarell Suggs was a beast all game long with a hat trick of sacks and Ed Reed had two picks and dropped a third. On offense, the Ravens didn't get anything out of Lee Evans or Torrey Smith, but they've found something with the tight end tandem Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta. They're not quite what Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are for the Patriots, but they're getting closer. Also, for no reason whatsoever, they ran a trick play for a two-point conversion to make it a 29-7 game. Oh those Harbaughs... what's their deal?
Arizona 28, Carolina 21 (+7)... What I said:
"I think the Panthers will finish with the worst record in the league if Cam Newton starts all 16 games. They can't draft a franchise QB three years in a row, can they?" Cardinals 26, Panthers 9 *FIVE POINT SPECIAL*
Well... uh... they lost, didn't they? Obviously Newton was spectacular in the game and he threw for the most yards of any rookie QB making his debut in NFL history, but did you see that Arizona defense? My god, they have no pass rush. Another rookie, Patrick Peterson, scored the winning touchdown on a punt return, but as a corner he looked fairly raw. I was surprised the Panthers didn't run more to protect Newton. They've got two good backs and gave DeAngelo Williams all that money, but I guess he doesn't need protecting, just throwing bombs out of the gate. The Cardinals with Kevin Kolb throwing and Beanie Wells running looked as good as advertised offensively, but they've got problems.
San Diego 24, Minnesota 17 (+9)... What I said:
"I like the Chargers, but they typically start slow, and nine points against a team with Adrian Peterson on it is too rich for my blood." Chargers 26, Vikings 20.
I didn't exactly foresee 39 passing yards for Donovan McNabb, and Philip Rivers played a bit worse than I would've thought, but yeah, pretty much par for the course. The Vikings o-line had a lot of trouble keeping pass rushers at bay and a hurried McNabb had no rhythm with his receivers. Rivers kept it pretty simple, with a lot of checkdowns and dump-offs to Antonio Gates but it was enough to win, even if it didn't always look pretty.
Washington 28, NY Giants 14 (-3)... What I said:
"The Giants have zero momentum headed into the game and their defense is so beat up at all three levels. If Washington can run the ball at all, they should spring the mild upset." Redskins 23, Giants 17.
Rex Grossman passed for 300 yards, so I rest my case. The Redskins usually look frisky early before losing a couple of close games in mid-season and then losing their spirit shortly after. The Giants have the look of that team this year, you know, the one that has 20 names on the injured reserve list.
NY Jets 27, Dallas 24 (+6)... What I said:
"I'm high on the Jets, but it's a leap of faith to back them by almost a full touchdown against what could be a high-octane Dallas offense." Jets 23, Cowboys 13.
Should've listened to my (ample) gut. The Cowboys Romoed themselves again, but it wasn't Tony's fault that Witten didn't try out-muscling Jim Leonhard into the end zone or that nobody blocked Joe McKnight on a fourth quarter punt. The fact is Dallas probably would've won the game going away if Dez Bryant didn't suffer some cramping and a couple of their DBs didn't get hurt, but those things happen. They still look pretty dangerous, albeit as mentally soft as always.
New England 38, Miami 24 (+7)... What I said:
"It'll be one of those games where New England sleepwalks through three quarters and Miami takes a three point lead late into the game. Then, of course Tom Brady will throw a touchdown pass to Wes Welker with like 58 seconds to go and they'll win by four, to piss off the bettors AND the people who hate them." New England 24, Miami 20.
Brady threw a fairly late TD pass to Welker, but it wasn't a game-winner and the Patriots -- well their offense at least -- certainly didn't sleepwalk during the game. The Jets showed in the playoffs that Brady can be confused if you drop eight in coverage, but if you send four or five all night like Miami did and don't touch him? Forget it. It might have been a closer game if the Dolphins had some better play-calling in the red zone. Chad Henne certainly didn't look like a joke to me, though I can't say the same for their safeties.
Oakland 23, Denver 20 (-3)... What I said: "I can see a close Broncos victory or a Raiders blowout." Denver 24, Oakland 19.
And I would've gotten away with it if it wasn't for that dang Kyle Orton and that wet ball. D'oh. Seriously though, what an ugly game. Just completely unwatchable with all those penalties. Darren McFadden is an absolute beast but without a passing game to rely on, the Raiders will get exposed soon enough.
W-L Record: 11-5
W-L Record Vs. Spread: 8-7-1
+/- Points (all games count as one unless specified): -5. TERRIBLE.
****************************************************************************
Power Poll:
1. Green Bay (1-0): Didn't exactly look like a championship defense in their opener, but Brees likes to get rid of it quick.
2. Baltimore (1-0): Steelers have allowed 100-yard rusher twice in 52 games. Both times, it was Ray Rice, the most complete back in football.
3. New England (1-0): Similar to Packers -- offense looks unstoppable, pass defense looks spotty. I like Green Bay's personnel at WR, DB a lot more though.
4. Philadelphia (1-0): They're like a baseball team with a great bullpen. You give those pass rushers and corners a 10 point lead, the game's over.
5. San Diego (1-0): They'll always cobble together a passing game with Rivers, but pass rush's dominance surprised me. Losing Luis Castillo is a big blow.
6. NY Jets (1-0): A bit of a lucky win to be sure, but impressive nonetheless without a running game. They got good pressure on Romo.
7. New Orleans (0-1): No shame in losing to Super Bowl champs on the road, but their secondary stinks. Can't they do better than Roman Harper?
8. Chicago (1-0): By hook or by crook they did host NFC title game last year and looked good against Atlanta. Let's see how they do against Saints.
9. Detroit (1-0): A bit too reliant on Jahvid Best late when they still had Maurice Morris and Jerome Harrison. Great game from the offensive line.
10. Buffalo (1-0): Running game more effective now that they stopped forcing half the carries to C.J. Spiller and gave them to Fred Jackson.
11. Houston (1-0): Great first half, bleh second half against Indy, but what does it mean? They might've beaten the worst team in the league. Need more info.
12. Pittsburgh (0-1): They only get this spot out of respect, not merit. Troy Polamalu got that contract for past accomplishments, not future ones.
13. Dallas (0-1): Shaky offensive line, inconsistent secondary, enigmatic receiver, and it still took a Romo choke for them to lose. Same ol' Cowboys.
14. Atlanta (0-1): Good passing game with Matt Ryan, good runner in Michael Turner, OK pass rush, so how'd they get crushed? Team is less than sum of parts.
15. Washington (1-0): They didn't show many holes, but it's early. Not sure I can trust their pass rush or their offensive line for the long term.
16. Tampa Bay (0-1): Almost made an impressive comeback against Lions. They're a young, talented bunch, but still suffering some growing pains.
17. St. Louis (0-1): Injuries to corner Ron Bartell, Denny Amendola and Steven Jackson. Sam Bradford has a sore finger. Otherwise they're in good shape.
18. NY Giants (0-1): The battered defense desperately needs the running game to carry them. Eli Manning might too. They're on the brink of disaster.
19. San Francisco (1-0): Dominating special teams, great run defense, consistent pressure from base four man rush. That's all great, but preseason just ended.
20. Oakland (1-0): Stop me if you've heard this before -- Raiders need to find a passing game, clean up penalties.
21. Arizona (1-0): If they don't find a way to pressure the quarterback, they're gonna give up some "fortyburgers" whenever they play someone outside of division.
22. Miami (0-1): The offense looked like it had a pulse, at least. Tough to gauge defense against Tom Brady and Co. Cramping problems in Florida humidity.
23. Cincinnati (1-0): This might be their high point in the power poll, but you never know. They've got Broncos coming up. I like Andy Dalton.
24. Cleveland (0-1): It's year two, Colt McCoy. Quit looking like such a spaz in the pocket. And tell your defense to line up in time for the snap.
25. Minnesota (0-1): I'm guessing they'll come out throwing next week, just to spare Donovan McNabb the humiliation. Home against Tampa? Interesting game.
26. Carolina (0-1): Yes, Cam Newton looked great, but they might not play a worse defense all year. Plus, they lost Jon Beason for the year.
27. Jacksonville (1-0): It's not fair, but probably honest, if I put Tennessee ahead of them. I mean, what did they show, really?
28. Tennessee (0-1): Well, they showed they were better on Sunday than Tennessee, jackass.
29. Denver (0-1): They need to find a back from somewhere. Knowshon Moreno is a bust. He just is. Just admit it to yourselves already.
30. Kansas City (0-1): The anti-Eagles. You get them down a touchdown and that's the ballgame. Lost Eric Barry, so below average secondary gets worse.
31. Seattle (0-1): Showed some second-half spunkiness at SF, but their offensive line has a lot of problems and their kick coverage was a joke.
32. Indianapolis (0-1): Embarrassing. They've got five great players and 40 awful ones. How does a GM build a team like that? This isn't fantasy football.
********************************************************************************
Three teams that might be better than I thought:
3) Buffalo: I don't care that it was just Kansas City. It was still 41-7 and it was on the road in a tough place to play. The Bills have the potential for a balanced offense, which is fairly rare in the NFL and they can stop the run, which helps. Home against Oakland on Sunday, so a great chance for a 2-0 start.
2) Detroit: The jury is still out on Jahvid Best, who doesn't have great acceleration, but I was surprised how easily they won at Tampa.
1) Chicago: The Bears might be one of those teams we don't want to be good, so we look for nits to pick. If Jay Cutler is upright, they'll be in every game.
Three teams that might be worse than I thought:
3) Pittsburgh: Not competitive at all at Baltimore. Tackle Willie Colon out for the year. Mike Wallace only playmaker on offense. Defense looks very old.
2) Kansas City: If Jamaal Charles isn't going off, their goose is cooked. Are they tuning out Todd Haley already?
1) Atlanta: Something is off about them besides just the secondary. I'll be watching closely Sunday night against Philly.
Sunday, September 11, 2011
49ers Special Teams Makes a Winner of Harbaugh -- A Ginn
SAN FRANCISCO -- Football players can be really selfish pricks sometimes.
You think you've got a storyline going, where a certain theme has been established for 55 minutes and change and a chance at a really dramatic ending set up to make up for what was mostly a dull affair.
And then stupid ol' Ted Ginn ruins it with back-to-back touchdown returns; first a 102-yard kickoff he raced back all the way down the right sideline to make it a 26-17 ballgame with 3:45 to go, and then, just for the heck of it, a 55-yard punt return right up the gut a mere 59 seconds later to close out the scoring.
Obviously going into the game all the focus was on 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh, but it was another import from Stanford, Seahawks receiver Doug Baldwin, who took a short pass from beleaguered quarterback Tarvaris Jackson, broke one tackle and zoomed past the 49ers secondary for a 55-yard touchdown to make it a perilous 19-17 lead for the hosts with 3:56 to go.
The 49ers had been winning, mostly comfortably, for the better part of the final three quarters, but Baldwin's score was supposed to show us a couple of things. It was supposed to give us some kind of definitive proof, one way or another, that Harbaugh's offense, which had sputtered in fits and starts the whole game, could finally get creative enough to manage a couple of first downs when it mattered. Finally, after enduring 55 minutes of Alex Smith playing with one hand tied behind his back, we were gonna witness the extent of just how much Harbaugh trusted his quarterback.
But no, Ginn had other plans.
"On a kickoff you’re always taking a chance," said Ginn afterward. "Sometimes you might not make it to the 20. You might only get to the 10 or 15-yard-line and hurt your offense, but with our special teams you always have a chance."
Harbaugh seemed to think the 49ers had a chance simply by handing it up to gut to Frank Gore -- eight-man Seattle fronts be damned -- and to avoid those dreaded turnovers and sacks. This formula, which he described as "blue-collar" seemed familiar somehow, but I'm having difficulty putting my finger on it.
If you think the comparisons to Mike Singletary are too harsh, then consider try these numbers on for size: The offense managed a whopping 209 yards, Gore averaged a paltry 2.7 per his 22(!) carries and they converted 1-of-12 3rd down attempts while scoring exactly one touchdown on five trips to the red zone. Twice the defense gifted them the ball deep inside Seattle territory in the first half and repeated handoffs to Gore led only to a 6-0 lead, thanks to two short David Akers field goals.
The boys produced another field goal drive midway through the second before finally embarking on their one touchdown drive of the afternoon, right before half. It covered 49 yards, but Smith found Vernon Davis for a couple of receptions and had an 11 yard scramble of his own.
Harbaugh has mentioned multiple times how mobility and "athletic instincts" are traits he looks for in quarterbacks (see Kaepernick, Colin) and one gets impression that Smith the message: Scramble or sit. He ran five times for 24 yards, and his bootleg to the right side from a yard out with 12 seconds to go in the half was a gutty effort, as he dove at the end zone with two defenders bearing down on him.
"I think I have that ability," said Smith. "The last couple of years I got away from that a little bit, there was a different emphasis."
And that emphasis was making him the scapegoat for everything that went wrong, mostly.
Clearly keeping Smith safe and sound is not a big emphasis for Harbaugh. Smith's most important contribution in the first quarter was to serve as a lead blocker for Gore on a misdirection toss play, and Smith did well to wall off two Seahawks pursuers. Smith was wise enough to dive after getting what he could on his scrambles, but asking him to use his legs when the blocking breaks down instead of trying to wait for receivers to get open is a dicey proposition.
Even though Smith completed 15-of-20 passes and managed a perfectly respectable 90.4 passer rating, he only totaled 124 yards through the air (6.2 yards per attempt) and was handcuffed far too much in the red zone. We were led to believe that the 49ers vanilla offense in the preseason was just for show, that they were saving the "real" offense for when the games count, but judging from what we saw today, the August fare was the real offense. What you saw is what you get. Either Smith will have to earn his coach's trust before he's allowed to pass like a real life NFL quarterback, or Harbaugh badly miscalculated in thinking the same dinky bubble screens and tight end screens that worked at Stanford will work here.
Enough negative stuff for now. Offense aside the 49ers did play quite superbly. The defense held Seattle to only 219 yards (64 on the ground and just 2.9 per carry) and made life miserable for Jackson, sacking him five times, stripping him of the ball twice and intercepting him once on a Hail Mary attempt. End Ray McDonald's five-year, $20 million contract looked like a great investment and it was amazing to see how drafting his replacement with the seventh overall pick of the draft rejuvenated Parys Haralson, who had two sacks. Justin Smith added two sacks of his own, which wasn't surprising because he's Justin Smith and the Seahawks offensive linemen were a bunch of rookies who aren't Justin Smith.
The 49ers subbed liberally along the defensive line, using both Ricky Jean Francois and Will Tukuafu to great effect, and they brought in Aldon Smith and safety Reggie Smith for passing downs, replacing Haralson and Madieu Williams, who was the injured Dashon Goldson's fill-in as the starting free safety. Interestingly, it was Tramaine Brock who checked in as the nickel corner (and who got the interception) and not Shawntae Spencer, the 49ers longtime starter who pronounced his hamstring fully healed. Rookie Chris Culliver also didn't play from scrimmage.
San Francisco's real edge, however, was on special teams. Ginn had 268 return yards to Seattle's 114, Akers was perfect on four field goal attempts and punter Andy Lee boomed five long ones, averaging 59.6 gross and 54.2 net. It's damn near impossible to kick ass as a special teams unit more than that, without forcing a few fumbles or blocking a kick or two anyway.
Add it all up and the 49ers are 1-0, beating an opponent they had absolutely no excuses against. Alex Smith still has proven precious little to soothe the fan base and Harbaugh even less. Pre-season officially ended a couple weeks back at San Diego, but for all intents and purposes it ended tonight. The Cowboys come to town next week and 209 yards of offense will not cut it.
Well, unless Ginn goes bonkers again.
You think you've got a storyline going, where a certain theme has been established for 55 minutes and change and a chance at a really dramatic ending set up to make up for what was mostly a dull affair.
And then stupid ol' Ted Ginn ruins it with back-to-back touchdown returns; first a 102-yard kickoff he raced back all the way down the right sideline to make it a 26-17 ballgame with 3:45 to go, and then, just for the heck of it, a 55-yard punt return right up the gut a mere 59 seconds later to close out the scoring.
Obviously going into the game all the focus was on 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh, but it was another import from Stanford, Seahawks receiver Doug Baldwin, who took a short pass from beleaguered quarterback Tarvaris Jackson, broke one tackle and zoomed past the 49ers secondary for a 55-yard touchdown to make it a perilous 19-17 lead for the hosts with 3:56 to go.
The 49ers had been winning, mostly comfortably, for the better part of the final three quarters, but Baldwin's score was supposed to show us a couple of things. It was supposed to give us some kind of definitive proof, one way or another, that Harbaugh's offense, which had sputtered in fits and starts the whole game, could finally get creative enough to manage a couple of first downs when it mattered. Finally, after enduring 55 minutes of Alex Smith playing with one hand tied behind his back, we were gonna witness the extent of just how much Harbaugh trusted his quarterback.
But no, Ginn had other plans.
"On a kickoff you’re always taking a chance," said Ginn afterward. "Sometimes you might not make it to the 20. You might only get to the 10 or 15-yard-line and hurt your offense, but with our special teams you always have a chance."
Harbaugh seemed to think the 49ers had a chance simply by handing it up to gut to Frank Gore -- eight-man Seattle fronts be damned -- and to avoid those dreaded turnovers and sacks. This formula, which he described as "blue-collar" seemed familiar somehow, but I'm having difficulty putting my finger on it.
If you think the comparisons to Mike Singletary are too harsh, then consider try these numbers on for size: The offense managed a whopping 209 yards, Gore averaged a paltry 2.7 per his 22(!) carries and they converted 1-of-12 3rd down attempts while scoring exactly one touchdown on five trips to the red zone. Twice the defense gifted them the ball deep inside Seattle territory in the first half and repeated handoffs to Gore led only to a 6-0 lead, thanks to two short David Akers field goals.
The boys produced another field goal drive midway through the second before finally embarking on their one touchdown drive of the afternoon, right before half. It covered 49 yards, but Smith found Vernon Davis for a couple of receptions and had an 11 yard scramble of his own.
Harbaugh has mentioned multiple times how mobility and "athletic instincts" are traits he looks for in quarterbacks (see Kaepernick, Colin) and one gets impression that Smith the message: Scramble or sit. He ran five times for 24 yards, and his bootleg to the right side from a yard out with 12 seconds to go in the half was a gutty effort, as he dove at the end zone with two defenders bearing down on him.
"I think I have that ability," said Smith. "The last couple of years I got away from that a little bit, there was a different emphasis."
And that emphasis was making him the scapegoat for everything that went wrong, mostly.
Clearly keeping Smith safe and sound is not a big emphasis for Harbaugh. Smith's most important contribution in the first quarter was to serve as a lead blocker for Gore on a misdirection toss play, and Smith did well to wall off two Seahawks pursuers. Smith was wise enough to dive after getting what he could on his scrambles, but asking him to use his legs when the blocking breaks down instead of trying to wait for receivers to get open is a dicey proposition.
Even though Smith completed 15-of-20 passes and managed a perfectly respectable 90.4 passer rating, he only totaled 124 yards through the air (6.2 yards per attempt) and was handcuffed far too much in the red zone. We were led to believe that the 49ers vanilla offense in the preseason was just for show, that they were saving the "real" offense for when the games count, but judging from what we saw today, the August fare was the real offense. What you saw is what you get. Either Smith will have to earn his coach's trust before he's allowed to pass like a real life NFL quarterback, or Harbaugh badly miscalculated in thinking the same dinky bubble screens and tight end screens that worked at Stanford will work here.
Enough negative stuff for now. Offense aside the 49ers did play quite superbly. The defense held Seattle to only 219 yards (64 on the ground and just 2.9 per carry) and made life miserable for Jackson, sacking him five times, stripping him of the ball twice and intercepting him once on a Hail Mary attempt. End Ray McDonald's five-year, $20 million contract looked like a great investment and it was amazing to see how drafting his replacement with the seventh overall pick of the draft rejuvenated Parys Haralson, who had two sacks. Justin Smith added two sacks of his own, which wasn't surprising because he's Justin Smith and the Seahawks offensive linemen were a bunch of rookies who aren't Justin Smith.
The 49ers subbed liberally along the defensive line, using both Ricky Jean Francois and Will Tukuafu to great effect, and they brought in Aldon Smith and safety Reggie Smith for passing downs, replacing Haralson and Madieu Williams, who was the injured Dashon Goldson's fill-in as the starting free safety. Interestingly, it was Tramaine Brock who checked in as the nickel corner (and who got the interception) and not Shawntae Spencer, the 49ers longtime starter who pronounced his hamstring fully healed. Rookie Chris Culliver also didn't play from scrimmage.
San Francisco's real edge, however, was on special teams. Ginn had 268 return yards to Seattle's 114, Akers was perfect on four field goal attempts and punter Andy Lee boomed five long ones, averaging 59.6 gross and 54.2 net. It's damn near impossible to kick ass as a special teams unit more than that, without forcing a few fumbles or blocking a kick or two anyway.
Add it all up and the 49ers are 1-0, beating an opponent they had absolutely no excuses against. Alex Smith still has proven precious little to soothe the fan base and Harbaugh even less. Pre-season officially ended a couple weeks back at San Diego, but for all intents and purposes it ended tonight. The Cowboys come to town next week and 209 yards of offense will not cut it.
Well, unless Ginn goes bonkers again.
Friday, September 9, 2011
49ers-Seahawks Preview, Week 1 Picks
Ordinarily in this corner we don't rush to Alex Smith for juicy pregame quotes, but considering that the only alternative is one of Jim Harbaugh's thousand-yards-in-the-distance stares when asked anything more substantive than whether he has the time (answer: nope), we are left to turn our lonely hearts to the 49ers beleaguered quarterback.
So, take it away, Alex. How are you feeling going into the opener of what will be the seventh season of your heretofore Greek tragedy of a career?
"Excited. This is a huge game. I mean they are all huge games. This is number one. This starts it off. It’s a division game at home. Seattle coming down, a lot at stake and excited for it. I’m excited for the challenge."
Neat-o.
With all due respect, if the Seahawks pose as any kind of challenge to Smith and his mates, the 49ers will be in dire straights in 2011, just as they have been lo these past eight years. We're talking about a Seattle team whose offensive line has been in constant flux, whose best receiver last season -- Mike Williams -- was a castoff from the Detroit Lions and whose two best pass rushers -- Chris Clemons and Raheem Brock -- were little-used backups on their former teams. The Seahawks jettisoned quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, who was 34-year-old, brittle, and ten kinds of awful last season (12 TDs, 17 INT, 73.2 QB rating) and somehow got worse at the position, bringing in Tarvaris Jackson to replace him.
The Seahawks didn't do much of anything to upgrade what was the 27th-ranked defense in the league last season and by all appearances they seem to be if not flat out tanking for Andrew Luck then at least not terribly bothered by the perception of being among a handful of likely candidates for his services.
Despite all of that, it won't be easy for Smith to beat them on Sunday, because nothing has ever come easily for Smith during his 49ers career. After all, if he had played the way he's played for almost any other organization, he would've been told to hit the bricks a long time ago. Also, just about any other pro quarterback would've had the self-respect to leave for greener pastures with his dignity intact, defiantly thrusting his middle fingers at the vague direction of 4949 Centennial Blvd. as their private jet pointed him somewhere -- anywhere -- else.
No, it's never been easy for Smith, but more often than not it has been interesting in a morbid way, especially against Seattle.
In 2006 he went 2-0 against the defending conference champions, including a 24-14 win in week 15 at Seattle where he threw for two scores and scrambled for another. This was his second season, back when Norv Turner was his coordinator and Smith showed just enough promise that the fan-base was still mostly behind him.
In 2007, things turned sour. The forgettable Jim Hostler took over for Turner as offensive coordinator once Norville got hired to be the head whistle at San Diego, and though the team had a 2-1 record through three weeks, Smith's play had regressed from his sophomore season. In the fourth game against the Seahawks, he got flattened by defensive tackle Rocky Bernard and separated his right (throwing) shoulder. By all intents and purposes the injury should've knocked out Smith for a good long while, if not the whole season, but he was bullied into playing with it by former coach Mike Nolan just three weeks later, which only damaged it worse. Smith came back to play three terrible games where he hardly could throw at all before being shut down, and lost all of the 2008 year due to surgical complications.
In 2009, Smith didn't wrestle the starting job away from good friend Shaun Hill until the sixth game. In a crucial early December loss at Seattle he finally recorded his first 300-yard passing day in 36 starts and played quite well besides, but he was done in by a Frank Gore fumble and another on a punt return and poof went the 49ers division hopes.
Buoyed by Smith's play down the stretch and what looked by far like the best team in the division on paper, many expected the 49ers to make playoffs last year. The campaign was supposed to start with a laugher at Seattle, where an experienced Niners crew would teach a thing or two to Pete Carroll, who was returning to the NFL to coach the Seahawks after a long (and successful) sabbatical in the college ranks. Smith started well, but was off just enough to miss wide open receivers Joshua Morgan and Moran Norris in the end zone on a pair of early drives. The 49ers were up 6-0 20 minutes into the game when it should've been 17 or 21-0. Eventually the Seahawks warmed up, they took advantage of a rusty and unprepared Michael Crabtree and won going away 31-6.
Later in the same season, when all hope was mostly lost, Smith got a measure of revenge against the Seahawks, playing brilliantly and throwing three first-half touchdown passes en route to a 40-21 thumping of the visitors. It was the most points the 49ers franchise ever scored against Seattle, besting the efforts of any of those Joe Montana and Steve Young teams (albeit the 'Hawks were in the AFC back then and we didn't see them very often).
So here we go again, another season opener against the Seahawks, this time at the friendly confines of the 'Stick. More than any quarterback on the Sunday slate, Smith will be walking the proverbial tightrope. He absolutely needs to win this game, and hopefully look good while doing so.
He doesn't have poor coaching as an excuse anymore -- not only will Harbaugh, a former first-round pick himself be coaching him up between series, but he'll be personally relaying the play-calls into Smith's headset and giving him pointers and advice before every play. The past two head coaches Smith had either didn't even bother wearing the headphones when the offense was on the field (Nolan) or imparted useful advice such as "don't throw an interception." (Mike Singletary.)
The cast around him won't be an excuse either. Gore is back healthy and Kendall Hunter looks like a dynamic understudy. Vernon Davis remains one of the elite players at his position. Whereas last year they had to rush Crabtree onto the field and play him 65 snaps even though he missed all of preseason with a neck injury, this time the 49ers have Braylon Edwards to complement Morgan, giving them two starting-caliber receivers to play most of the snaps while Crabtree mixes in gradually and to his comfort level. It's true the offensive line has looked atrocious at times during the preseason, but generally they've been a group that plays far better at home than on the road and Seattle's pass-rush, which wasn't reminiscent of "The Fearsome Foursome" in the first place, will be further limited by Chris Clemons' wonky ankle.
It's true that there is potential for Seattle to score a few points of their own, even without Sidney Rice and road-grader Robert Gallery. The 49ers will start an entirely new secondary than the foursome that played most of the snaps in 2010. Corner Carlos Rogers and strong safety Donte Whitner were free agent additions penned into the starting lineup from day one, while free safety Madieu Williams -- another free agent -- plays in place of injured Dashon Goldson and Tarell Brown starts at the other corner spot in favor of Shawntae Spencer, who missed all of camp with a balky hamstring.
In fact, eight of the 11 49ers defenders who figure to play a lot on Sunday will be different than the ones who got the lion's share of the game reps the year before. There will be two new starting linebackers in NaVorro Bowman and Ahmad Brooks and first-round pick Aldon Smith will sub in for Parys Haralson in all passing situations. At the front line, Ray McDonald will replace the departed Aubrayo Franklin, causing Isaac Sopoaga to slide inside to nose tackle. Justin Smith and Patrick Willis will be the only constants.
The new-look 49ers defense will have youth and speed to its advantage, but with that youth comes inexperience. There doesn't seem to be anyone on the roster who can deal with Seattle tight end Zach Miller (Whitner gave up 10 touchdowns in coverage as a Buffalo Bill last year) and the Houston Texans showed during their preseason drubbing of San Francisco how vulnerable the 'backers could be to play-action passes. It also remains to be seen how staunch the front seven will be against the run. Can McDonald and Bowman plug the gaps inside the way Franklin and Takeo Spikes did?
Ultimately, I'm picking the 49ers to win -- by a score of 24-16 -- because they have to, they need to, and it just feels like they want to more. If I'm wrong, well, there's a first time for everything, I suppose.
Here's what I do know: If they somehow flub this game, then what's the point? They might as well start rookie Colin Kaepernick in week two and just use the rest of the season as a learning experience for him (and if that means 1-15 and Andrew Luck, so be it). The Seahawks at home might very well be the easiest game the 49ers will have on their schedule all year.
So yeah, darn tootin' you better be excited, Mr. Smith. It's only the most important game of your career.
*************************************************************************
Other thoughts/picks for Week 1:
Philadelphia at St. Louis (+5): The Andy Reid/Marty Morhinweg combo are one of the best in the league when they have multiple weeks to game plan for somebody and Reid has a great track record against former pupils. Philadelphia's the speediest team in the league and now they play on the fast track in St. Louis? Yeah, I think I like 'em in this one. Eagles 34, Rams 17
Indianapolis at Houston (-9): The Colts have all the motivation in the world because everyone thinks they're doomed without Peyton Manning. What they don't have: Any talent besides Peyton Manning. Also, that coaching staff is about to get exposed in a bad way. Texans 27, Colts 13
Detroit at Tampa Bay (-1): I find this line kind of ridiculous, quite frankly. The Buccaneers and Josh Freeman get no respect. The guy had an incredible season last year and Detroit's secondary is awful until proven otherwise. Buccaneers 30, Lions 20 *THREE POINT SPECIAL*
Atlanta at Chicago (-3): I'm not high at all on the Falcons, mainly because I don't think any more highly of their defensive backs than Detroit's, but I'm even more down on the Bears, who might have the worst offensive line in the league. Falcons 20, Bears 13 *TWO POINT SPECIAL*
Cincinnati at Cleveland (-7): I think the Browns will improve and the Bengals will be among the worst teams in football, but Colt McCoy isn't that far removed from being a rookie himself and I'm not about to give him seven points against anyone but Kansas or Iowa State. Browns 17, Bengals 13
Buffalo at Kansas City (-6): I like Ryan Fitzpatrick more than most and I just have a hunch the Bills will have a frisky offense, even with a crummy line. The Chiefs offense looks hobbled at receiver, Matt Cassel has a broken rib and tight end Tony Moeaki is out for the year. A funky upset pick here. Bills 27, Chiefs 23
Tennessee at Jacksonville (-1): What a snoozer. Why can't both teams just started Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert? Sure, it'd still be a terrible game, but in an interesting way. Titans 27, Jaguars 10 *FOUR POINT SPECIAL*
Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-2): I picked the Ravens to make the Super Bowl. For them to get there, they'll have to win games like this. It's that simple. Ravens 23, Steelers 20
Carolina at Arizona (-7): I think the Panthers will finish with the worst record in the league if Cam Newton starts all 16 games. They can't draft a franchise QB three years in a row, can they? Cardinals 26, Panthers 9 *FIVE POINT SPECIAL*
Seattle at San Francisco (-6): See above. Six points is a lot though. I have no confidence in this pick.
Minnesota at San Diego (-9): I like the Chargers, but they typically start slow, and nine points against a team with Adrian Peterson on it is too rich for my blood. Chargers 26, Vikings 20
NY Giants at Washington (+3): The Giants have zero momentum headed into the game and their defense is so beat up at all three levels. If Washington can run the ball at all, they should spring the mild upset. Redskins 23, Giants 17
Dallas at NY Jets (-6): I'm high on the Jets, but it's a leap of faith to back them by almost a full touchdown against what could be a high-octane Dallas offense. Oh, what the hell. Jets 23, Cowboys 13
New England at Miami (+7): You know what this will be? It'll be one of those games where all the bettors will confidently pick the Patriots to win in a blow out and then get pissed as hell as New England sleepwalks through three quarters and Miami takes a three point lead late into the game. Then, just when everyone who bet on the Patriots will root for them to lose outright out of spite, of course Tom Brady will throw a touchdown pass to Wes Welker with like 58 seconds to go and they'll win by four, to piss off the bettors AND the people who hate them. That's what it will be. New England 24, Miami 20
Oakland at Denver (-3): I can see a close Broncos victory or a Raiders blowout. I'm going with the close Broncos victory. Denver 24, Oakland 19
W-L Record: 1-0
W-L Record Vs. Spread: 1-0
+/- Points (all games count as one unless specified): 1
So, take it away, Alex. How are you feeling going into the opener of what will be the seventh season of your heretofore Greek tragedy of a career?
"Excited. This is a huge game. I mean they are all huge games. This is number one. This starts it off. It’s a division game at home. Seattle coming down, a lot at stake and excited for it. I’m excited for the challenge."
Neat-o.
With all due respect, if the Seahawks pose as any kind of challenge to Smith and his mates, the 49ers will be in dire straights in 2011, just as they have been lo these past eight years. We're talking about a Seattle team whose offensive line has been in constant flux, whose best receiver last season -- Mike Williams -- was a castoff from the Detroit Lions and whose two best pass rushers -- Chris Clemons and Raheem Brock -- were little-used backups on their former teams. The Seahawks jettisoned quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, who was 34-year-old, brittle, and ten kinds of awful last season (12 TDs, 17 INT, 73.2 QB rating) and somehow got worse at the position, bringing in Tarvaris Jackson to replace him.
The Seahawks didn't do much of anything to upgrade what was the 27th-ranked defense in the league last season and by all appearances they seem to be if not flat out tanking for Andrew Luck then at least not terribly bothered by the perception of being among a handful of likely candidates for his services.
Despite all of that, it won't be easy for Smith to beat them on Sunday, because nothing has ever come easily for Smith during his 49ers career. After all, if he had played the way he's played for almost any other organization, he would've been told to hit the bricks a long time ago. Also, just about any other pro quarterback would've had the self-respect to leave for greener pastures with his dignity intact, defiantly thrusting his middle fingers at the vague direction of 4949 Centennial Blvd. as their private jet pointed him somewhere -- anywhere -- else.
No, it's never been easy for Smith, but more often than not it has been interesting in a morbid way, especially against Seattle.
In 2006 he went 2-0 against the defending conference champions, including a 24-14 win in week 15 at Seattle where he threw for two scores and scrambled for another. This was his second season, back when Norv Turner was his coordinator and Smith showed just enough promise that the fan-base was still mostly behind him.
In 2007, things turned sour. The forgettable Jim Hostler took over for Turner as offensive coordinator once Norville got hired to be the head whistle at San Diego, and though the team had a 2-1 record through three weeks, Smith's play had regressed from his sophomore season. In the fourth game against the Seahawks, he got flattened by defensive tackle Rocky Bernard and separated his right (throwing) shoulder. By all intents and purposes the injury should've knocked out Smith for a good long while, if not the whole season, but he was bullied into playing with it by former coach Mike Nolan just three weeks later, which only damaged it worse. Smith came back to play three terrible games where he hardly could throw at all before being shut down, and lost all of the 2008 year due to surgical complications.
In 2009, Smith didn't wrestle the starting job away from good friend Shaun Hill until the sixth game. In a crucial early December loss at Seattle he finally recorded his first 300-yard passing day in 36 starts and played quite well besides, but he was done in by a Frank Gore fumble and another on a punt return and poof went the 49ers division hopes.
Buoyed by Smith's play down the stretch and what looked by far like the best team in the division on paper, many expected the 49ers to make playoffs last year. The campaign was supposed to start with a laugher at Seattle, where an experienced Niners crew would teach a thing or two to Pete Carroll, who was returning to the NFL to coach the Seahawks after a long (and successful) sabbatical in the college ranks. Smith started well, but was off just enough to miss wide open receivers Joshua Morgan and Moran Norris in the end zone on a pair of early drives. The 49ers were up 6-0 20 minutes into the game when it should've been 17 or 21-0. Eventually the Seahawks warmed up, they took advantage of a rusty and unprepared Michael Crabtree and won going away 31-6.
Later in the same season, when all hope was mostly lost, Smith got a measure of revenge against the Seahawks, playing brilliantly and throwing three first-half touchdown passes en route to a 40-21 thumping of the visitors. It was the most points the 49ers franchise ever scored against Seattle, besting the efforts of any of those Joe Montana and Steve Young teams (albeit the 'Hawks were in the AFC back then and we didn't see them very often).
So here we go again, another season opener against the Seahawks, this time at the friendly confines of the 'Stick. More than any quarterback on the Sunday slate, Smith will be walking the proverbial tightrope. He absolutely needs to win this game, and hopefully look good while doing so.
He doesn't have poor coaching as an excuse anymore -- not only will Harbaugh, a former first-round pick himself be coaching him up between series, but he'll be personally relaying the play-calls into Smith's headset and giving him pointers and advice before every play. The past two head coaches Smith had either didn't even bother wearing the headphones when the offense was on the field (Nolan) or imparted useful advice such as "don't throw an interception." (Mike Singletary.)
The cast around him won't be an excuse either. Gore is back healthy and Kendall Hunter looks like a dynamic understudy. Vernon Davis remains one of the elite players at his position. Whereas last year they had to rush Crabtree onto the field and play him 65 snaps even though he missed all of preseason with a neck injury, this time the 49ers have Braylon Edwards to complement Morgan, giving them two starting-caliber receivers to play most of the snaps while Crabtree mixes in gradually and to his comfort level. It's true the offensive line has looked atrocious at times during the preseason, but generally they've been a group that plays far better at home than on the road and Seattle's pass-rush, which wasn't reminiscent of "The Fearsome Foursome" in the first place, will be further limited by Chris Clemons' wonky ankle.
It's true that there is potential for Seattle to score a few points of their own, even without Sidney Rice and road-grader Robert Gallery. The 49ers will start an entirely new secondary than the foursome that played most of the snaps in 2010. Corner Carlos Rogers and strong safety Donte Whitner were free agent additions penned into the starting lineup from day one, while free safety Madieu Williams -- another free agent -- plays in place of injured Dashon Goldson and Tarell Brown starts at the other corner spot in favor of Shawntae Spencer, who missed all of camp with a balky hamstring.
In fact, eight of the 11 49ers defenders who figure to play a lot on Sunday will be different than the ones who got the lion's share of the game reps the year before. There will be two new starting linebackers in NaVorro Bowman and Ahmad Brooks and first-round pick Aldon Smith will sub in for Parys Haralson in all passing situations. At the front line, Ray McDonald will replace the departed Aubrayo Franklin, causing Isaac Sopoaga to slide inside to nose tackle. Justin Smith and Patrick Willis will be the only constants.
The new-look 49ers defense will have youth and speed to its advantage, but with that youth comes inexperience. There doesn't seem to be anyone on the roster who can deal with Seattle tight end Zach Miller (Whitner gave up 10 touchdowns in coverage as a Buffalo Bill last year) and the Houston Texans showed during their preseason drubbing of San Francisco how vulnerable the 'backers could be to play-action passes. It also remains to be seen how staunch the front seven will be against the run. Can McDonald and Bowman plug the gaps inside the way Franklin and Takeo Spikes did?
Ultimately, I'm picking the 49ers to win -- by a score of 24-16 -- because they have to, they need to, and it just feels like they want to more. If I'm wrong, well, there's a first time for everything, I suppose.
Here's what I do know: If they somehow flub this game, then what's the point? They might as well start rookie Colin Kaepernick in week two and just use the rest of the season as a learning experience for him (and if that means 1-15 and Andrew Luck, so be it). The Seahawks at home might very well be the easiest game the 49ers will have on their schedule all year.
So yeah, darn tootin' you better be excited, Mr. Smith. It's only the most important game of your career.
*************************************************************************
Other thoughts/picks for Week 1:
Philadelphia at St. Louis (+5): The Andy Reid/Marty Morhinweg combo are one of the best in the league when they have multiple weeks to game plan for somebody and Reid has a great track record against former pupils. Philadelphia's the speediest team in the league and now they play on the fast track in St. Louis? Yeah, I think I like 'em in this one. Eagles 34, Rams 17
Indianapolis at Houston (-9): The Colts have all the motivation in the world because everyone thinks they're doomed without Peyton Manning. What they don't have: Any talent besides Peyton Manning. Also, that coaching staff is about to get exposed in a bad way. Texans 27, Colts 13
Detroit at Tampa Bay (-1): I find this line kind of ridiculous, quite frankly. The Buccaneers and Josh Freeman get no respect. The guy had an incredible season last year and Detroit's secondary is awful until proven otherwise. Buccaneers 30, Lions 20 *THREE POINT SPECIAL*
Atlanta at Chicago (-3): I'm not high at all on the Falcons, mainly because I don't think any more highly of their defensive backs than Detroit's, but I'm even more down on the Bears, who might have the worst offensive line in the league. Falcons 20, Bears 13 *TWO POINT SPECIAL*
Cincinnati at Cleveland (-7): I think the Browns will improve and the Bengals will be among the worst teams in football, but Colt McCoy isn't that far removed from being a rookie himself and I'm not about to give him seven points against anyone but Kansas or Iowa State. Browns 17, Bengals 13
Buffalo at Kansas City (-6): I like Ryan Fitzpatrick more than most and I just have a hunch the Bills will have a frisky offense, even with a crummy line. The Chiefs offense looks hobbled at receiver, Matt Cassel has a broken rib and tight end Tony Moeaki is out for the year. A funky upset pick here. Bills 27, Chiefs 23
Tennessee at Jacksonville (-1): What a snoozer. Why can't both teams just started Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert? Sure, it'd still be a terrible game, but in an interesting way. Titans 27, Jaguars 10 *FOUR POINT SPECIAL*
Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-2): I picked the Ravens to make the Super Bowl. For them to get there, they'll have to win games like this. It's that simple. Ravens 23, Steelers 20
Carolina at Arizona (-7): I think the Panthers will finish with the worst record in the league if Cam Newton starts all 16 games. They can't draft a franchise QB three years in a row, can they? Cardinals 26, Panthers 9 *FIVE POINT SPECIAL*
Seattle at San Francisco (-6): See above. Six points is a lot though. I have no confidence in this pick.
Minnesota at San Diego (-9): I like the Chargers, but they typically start slow, and nine points against a team with Adrian Peterson on it is too rich for my blood. Chargers 26, Vikings 20
NY Giants at Washington (+3): The Giants have zero momentum headed into the game and their defense is so beat up at all three levels. If Washington can run the ball at all, they should spring the mild upset. Redskins 23, Giants 17
Dallas at NY Jets (-6): I'm high on the Jets, but it's a leap of faith to back them by almost a full touchdown against what could be a high-octane Dallas offense. Oh, what the hell. Jets 23, Cowboys 13
New England at Miami (+7): You know what this will be? It'll be one of those games where all the bettors will confidently pick the Patriots to win in a blow out and then get pissed as hell as New England sleepwalks through three quarters and Miami takes a three point lead late into the game. Then, just when everyone who bet on the Patriots will root for them to lose outright out of spite, of course Tom Brady will throw a touchdown pass to Wes Welker with like 58 seconds to go and they'll win by four, to piss off the bettors AND the people who hate them. That's what it will be. New England 24, Miami 20
Oakland at Denver (-3): I can see a close Broncos victory or a Raiders blowout. I'm going with the close Broncos victory. Denver 24, Oakland 19
W-L Record: 1-0
W-L Record Vs. Spread: 1-0
+/- Points (all games count as one unless specified): 1
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Crabtree talks, Goldson sits, Baalke stays busy and more speculating about the inactives.
After a six week wait, we finally got to talk to the one and only Michael Crabtree today. Six-and-a-half minutes later I was wondering to myself what all the fuss was about.
Okay, Crabtree wasn't that bad, he gave us a couple of useful tidbits such as he had surgery to fix his broken left foot "sometime in July" and that he'll be wearing custom-made molded Michael Jordan brand cleats, but on the whole it's pretty obvious that talking to the media is not something he enjoys or feels comfortable doing. I don't think he's a bad guy or a grouch or anything like that. He's just a really shy dude.
A reporter asked him if practicing again for the first time was like riding a bike and Crabtree responded, "It was like playing football."
Oh.
Shortly after Crabtree complained about the heat of the camera light on him, but it was one of those LED lights that gives off no heat.
At one point Crabtree seemed almost offended when asked which receiving positions he feels comfortable playing in the offense, saying "All of them. I'm a wide receiver and that consists of playing all three positions."
However, another time he admitted that he may not be as much of an expert on the playbook as some of his coaches have been suggesting. "I've got the basics down, but it's different when you go out there," Crabtree said.
He's an odd duck, that Crabtree, but the good news for 49ers fans is that he looked full speed and hitch free running routes during individual drills in practice. How much playing time he gets on Sunday is up in the air, but the good news is that while he'd certainly be an asset in the coming weeks, the team doesn't need him to beat Seattle.
You may recall last season Crabtree missed most of camp and all of preseason with a neck injury. The 49ers still rushed him out there for the first regular season game at Seattle because A) Mike Singletary kowtowed to Crabtree from day one and B) they really didn't have anybody else to start. Crabtree was rusty as hell in the game, had a couple of balls clank off his hands (one for a costly interception) and the 49ers got routed. In the second half ex-radio color man Gary Plummer was hollering for Crabtree to be benched, he was playing so poorly, and so clearly confused about his assignments.
Now, with Braylon Edwards on board, along with Joshua Morgan and even Ted Ginn, there isn't as much pressure for Crabtree to produce right away. He can be mixed into the game and play in a few packages he's comfortable with instead of being relied on for 65 snaps off the bat. It's good for him, good for the team and good for Alex Smith, who doesn't have to force passes his way.
*****************************************************************
On the other side of the injury ledger is Dashon Goldson. He pretty much declared himself out for Sunday's game, saying his left knee still has "irritation."
Goldson didn't practice on Sunday and worked out with trainers on the side field.
Reggie Smith, who's recovering from his own knee injury was on the scout team, impersonating Seahawks safety Earl Thomas, so that's a good bet that he's not gonna start since guys on the scout team rarely do.
That leaves it to Madieu Williams to start, which means the 49ers will have an entirely different starting secondary than they did last season. Williams and Donte Whitner are both free agent pickups, as is left corner Carlos Rogers; and the right corner is expected to be Tarell Brown, who was a reserve last year behind starters Shawntae Spencer and Nate Clements. Clements is a Cincinnati Bengal these days and Spencer, who just started practicing yesterday himself (he reported no setbacks from his balky hamstring) probably needs to earn the confidence and faith of his coaching staff before he regains his starting job -- or he needs to wait for Brown simply play poorly enough to give it to him.
Count Ray McDonald, who was a reserve last year, linebackers Ahmad Brooks and NaVorro Bowman (ditto) and rookie edge-rusher Aldon Smith, and the 49ers defense could have as many eight different guys playing the majority of the snaps on Sunday than the ones who started in 2010. That's massive turnover.
Here's the thing though: The defense needed to be turned over. They needed to get younger and faster. The national reputation about the 49ers defense was they were good these past couple seasons, or at least above-average, but while that might have been the case in 2009, in large part to all the turnovers they got at home, they were pretty bad last year, especially as a pass defense. Look at the numbers if you don't believe me, the 49ers ranked in the bottom quadrant of the league in just about every pass defense category except interceptions.
I think the 49ers have upgraded their talent on defense considerably, especially at linebacker, but it will take a while for all these guys to play cohesively. Having defensive coordinator Vic Fangio at coordinator will help a lot, and he'll be able to patch over their flaws better than Greg Manusky did. Fangio also favors blitzing more than his predecessor did, so we're liable to see more big plays both for and against the defense than the Chinese water torture we'd grown so accustomed to with the past regime.
One thing that I found interesting is that, according to Williams, no coaches have come up to him to pick his brain about Seahawks QB Tarvaris Jackson or offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell. Williams practiced against those guys every day for three years at Minnesota, and yet no one is coming to him for tips? I find that odd.
"We've got a good coaching staff here, they don't need my help," said Williams.
He's another guy who hasn't exactly been engaging with us or snapping off witty one-liners. My theory is he's a bit chagrined about having joined the team with the idea that he'd only have to beat out Reggie Smith for a starting spot only to discover soon after he came on that Goldson was re-signed and immediately promoted to starter again.
Now he'll get a chance to show his stuff. Maybe if he has a big game, picks off a wayward Jackson pass or two, the coaching staff might feel Goldson's knee is still too irritated...
***************************************************************************
The 49ers didn't make any roster moves the past couple days, but it hasn't been for lack of trying.
They made waiver claims on two guys the New England Patriots cut: CB Darius Butler and TE Lee Smith. Carolina wound up getting Butler and Smith went to Buffalo, since both those teams had worse record than the 49ers last year.
It's well known the 49ers are in the market for a third tight end who's a blocking specialist, and I suppose Smith fits the bill there (no pun intended), but the Butler claim is the more interesting one to me. Who would they have dropped if they got him? Tramaine Brock? Spencer? I've gotten the sense that staff isn't that high on Spencer and that the only reason he's still here is because literally nobody else has done well enough to justify cutting him. Brown has been so-so as a starter in preseason, but I fully expect the Seahawks to target him on Sunday (as well as Whitner and the linebackers with passes to tight end Zach Miller and their running backs), while Brock has been worse than so-so.
I'm a bit surprised the 49ers didn't try trading for Eagles slot corner Joselio Hanson, who was a 49er once upon a time. Philadelphia is so deep there that Hanson was on the market, but general manager Trent Baalke is loathe to deal away draft picks.
Obviously we'll all pay attention to how Alex Smith and the linemen play, but I'm very curious how corners will perform this week and the next against Dallas. I have a feeling that spot on the defense may see some shuffling. Heck, 3rd round pick Chris Culliver might see some action by the end of the year.
Also, the 49ers worked out former Rams receiver Donnie Avery. He's a talented kid, but he tore his ACL in preseason last year and apparently didn't recover sufficiently enough for coach Steve Spagnuolo's liking, as the team cut him at the end of preseason.
It's true the 49ers could use another deep threat at receiver, and I guess it doesn't hurt to kick Avery's tires, but what does it say about him when St. Louis -- a club that's hardly got all-world guys in their receiving corps by the way -- cuts the guy?
If their coaches felt that Avery was worse than Brandon Gibson and Danny Amendola, then you probably won't help the 49ers.
************************************************************************
An updated guess on who will be the 46 guys active for Sunday's game:
QB (2) Smith and Colin Kaepernick, with Scott Tolzien still trying to learn the playbook.
RB (3) Offensive coordinator Greg Ramon said Frank Gore, Kendell Hunter and Anthony Dixon will all play.
FB (2) Moran Norris starts, Bruce Miller sees time at tight end and on special teams.
WR (5) I think everybody is up for this one. Kyle Williams dresses in case Crabtree has some kind of setback during the game.
TE (2) Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker are the only two they've got.
OL (7) Rookies Daniel Kilgore and Mike Person will have a great view all season long.
DL (5) I have Demarcus Dobbs joining Ricky Jean Francois as the reserves, Will Tukuafu and Ian Williams scratched. Just a guess here.
LB (7) I don't think new guy Tavares Gooden will be up to speed in time for Sunday.
CB (5) You need to keep Brock/Culliver in there to protect Spencer.
S (5) Goldson's out and everyone else would dress anyway.
ST (3) David Akers, Andy Lee and Brian Jennings as per usual.
Inactives: Tolzien, Kilgore, Person, I. Williams, Tukuafu, Gooden, Goldson.
If I'm wrong about anyone, it's Gooden, but good luck figuring out who he comes in for. They'd be taking a chance at corner or receiver with only four guys.
Alright time drive to the Cohn abode. Hope the game will be a high scoring affair. Call it 31-24, Pack.
Okay, Crabtree wasn't that bad, he gave us a couple of useful tidbits such as he had surgery to fix his broken left foot "sometime in July" and that he'll be wearing custom-made molded Michael Jordan brand cleats, but on the whole it's pretty obvious that talking to the media is not something he enjoys or feels comfortable doing. I don't think he's a bad guy or a grouch or anything like that. He's just a really shy dude.
A reporter asked him if practicing again for the first time was like riding a bike and Crabtree responded, "It was like playing football."
Oh.
Shortly after Crabtree complained about the heat of the camera light on him, but it was one of those LED lights that gives off no heat.
At one point Crabtree seemed almost offended when asked which receiving positions he feels comfortable playing in the offense, saying "All of them. I'm a wide receiver and that consists of playing all three positions."
However, another time he admitted that he may not be as much of an expert on the playbook as some of his coaches have been suggesting. "I've got the basics down, but it's different when you go out there," Crabtree said.
He's an odd duck, that Crabtree, but the good news for 49ers fans is that he looked full speed and hitch free running routes during individual drills in practice. How much playing time he gets on Sunday is up in the air, but the good news is that while he'd certainly be an asset in the coming weeks, the team doesn't need him to beat Seattle.
You may recall last season Crabtree missed most of camp and all of preseason with a neck injury. The 49ers still rushed him out there for the first regular season game at Seattle because A) Mike Singletary kowtowed to Crabtree from day one and B) they really didn't have anybody else to start. Crabtree was rusty as hell in the game, had a couple of balls clank off his hands (one for a costly interception) and the 49ers got routed. In the second half ex-radio color man Gary Plummer was hollering for Crabtree to be benched, he was playing so poorly, and so clearly confused about his assignments.
Now, with Braylon Edwards on board, along with Joshua Morgan and even Ted Ginn, there isn't as much pressure for Crabtree to produce right away. He can be mixed into the game and play in a few packages he's comfortable with instead of being relied on for 65 snaps off the bat. It's good for him, good for the team and good for Alex Smith, who doesn't have to force passes his way.
*****************************************************************
On the other side of the injury ledger is Dashon Goldson. He pretty much declared himself out for Sunday's game, saying his left knee still has "irritation."
Goldson didn't practice on Sunday and worked out with trainers on the side field.
Reggie Smith, who's recovering from his own knee injury was on the scout team, impersonating Seahawks safety Earl Thomas, so that's a good bet that he's not gonna start since guys on the scout team rarely do.
That leaves it to Madieu Williams to start, which means the 49ers will have an entirely different starting secondary than they did last season. Williams and Donte Whitner are both free agent pickups, as is left corner Carlos Rogers; and the right corner is expected to be Tarell Brown, who was a reserve last year behind starters Shawntae Spencer and Nate Clements. Clements is a Cincinnati Bengal these days and Spencer, who just started practicing yesterday himself (he reported no setbacks from his balky hamstring) probably needs to earn the confidence and faith of his coaching staff before he regains his starting job -- or he needs to wait for Brown simply play poorly enough to give it to him.
Count Ray McDonald, who was a reserve last year, linebackers Ahmad Brooks and NaVorro Bowman (ditto) and rookie edge-rusher Aldon Smith, and the 49ers defense could have as many eight different guys playing the majority of the snaps on Sunday than the ones who started in 2010. That's massive turnover.
Here's the thing though: The defense needed to be turned over. They needed to get younger and faster. The national reputation about the 49ers defense was they were good these past couple seasons, or at least above-average, but while that might have been the case in 2009, in large part to all the turnovers they got at home, they were pretty bad last year, especially as a pass defense. Look at the numbers if you don't believe me, the 49ers ranked in the bottom quadrant of the league in just about every pass defense category except interceptions.
I think the 49ers have upgraded their talent on defense considerably, especially at linebacker, but it will take a while for all these guys to play cohesively. Having defensive coordinator Vic Fangio at coordinator will help a lot, and he'll be able to patch over their flaws better than Greg Manusky did. Fangio also favors blitzing more than his predecessor did, so we're liable to see more big plays both for and against the defense than the Chinese water torture we'd grown so accustomed to with the past regime.
One thing that I found interesting is that, according to Williams, no coaches have come up to him to pick his brain about Seahawks QB Tarvaris Jackson or offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell. Williams practiced against those guys every day for three years at Minnesota, and yet no one is coming to him for tips? I find that odd.
"We've got a good coaching staff here, they don't need my help," said Williams.
He's another guy who hasn't exactly been engaging with us or snapping off witty one-liners. My theory is he's a bit chagrined about having joined the team with the idea that he'd only have to beat out Reggie Smith for a starting spot only to discover soon after he came on that Goldson was re-signed and immediately promoted to starter again.
Now he'll get a chance to show his stuff. Maybe if he has a big game, picks off a wayward Jackson pass or two, the coaching staff might feel Goldson's knee is still too irritated...
***************************************************************************
The 49ers didn't make any roster moves the past couple days, but it hasn't been for lack of trying.
They made waiver claims on two guys the New England Patriots cut: CB Darius Butler and TE Lee Smith. Carolina wound up getting Butler and Smith went to Buffalo, since both those teams had worse record than the 49ers last year.
It's well known the 49ers are in the market for a third tight end who's a blocking specialist, and I suppose Smith fits the bill there (no pun intended), but the Butler claim is the more interesting one to me. Who would they have dropped if they got him? Tramaine Brock? Spencer? I've gotten the sense that staff isn't that high on Spencer and that the only reason he's still here is because literally nobody else has done well enough to justify cutting him. Brown has been so-so as a starter in preseason, but I fully expect the Seahawks to target him on Sunday (as well as Whitner and the linebackers with passes to tight end Zach Miller and their running backs), while Brock has been worse than so-so.
I'm a bit surprised the 49ers didn't try trading for Eagles slot corner Joselio Hanson, who was a 49er once upon a time. Philadelphia is so deep there that Hanson was on the market, but general manager Trent Baalke is loathe to deal away draft picks.
Obviously we'll all pay attention to how Alex Smith and the linemen play, but I'm very curious how corners will perform this week and the next against Dallas. I have a feeling that spot on the defense may see some shuffling. Heck, 3rd round pick Chris Culliver might see some action by the end of the year.
Also, the 49ers worked out former Rams receiver Donnie Avery. He's a talented kid, but he tore his ACL in preseason last year and apparently didn't recover sufficiently enough for coach Steve Spagnuolo's liking, as the team cut him at the end of preseason.
It's true the 49ers could use another deep threat at receiver, and I guess it doesn't hurt to kick Avery's tires, but what does it say about him when St. Louis -- a club that's hardly got all-world guys in their receiving corps by the way -- cuts the guy?
If their coaches felt that Avery was worse than Brandon Gibson and Danny Amendola, then you probably won't help the 49ers.
************************************************************************
An updated guess on who will be the 46 guys active for Sunday's game:
QB (2) Smith and Colin Kaepernick, with Scott Tolzien still trying to learn the playbook.
RB (3) Offensive coordinator Greg Ramon said Frank Gore, Kendell Hunter and Anthony Dixon will all play.
FB (2) Moran Norris starts, Bruce Miller sees time at tight end and on special teams.
WR (5) I think everybody is up for this one. Kyle Williams dresses in case Crabtree has some kind of setback during the game.
TE (2) Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker are the only two they've got.
OL (7) Rookies Daniel Kilgore and Mike Person will have a great view all season long.
DL (5) I have Demarcus Dobbs joining Ricky Jean Francois as the reserves, Will Tukuafu and Ian Williams scratched. Just a guess here.
LB (7) I don't think new guy Tavares Gooden will be up to speed in time for Sunday.
CB (5) You need to keep Brock/Culliver in there to protect Spencer.
S (5) Goldson's out and everyone else would dress anyway.
ST (3) David Akers, Andy Lee and Brian Jennings as per usual.
Inactives: Tolzien, Kilgore, Person, I. Williams, Tukuafu, Gooden, Goldson.
If I'm wrong about anyone, it's Gooden, but good luck figuring out who he comes in for. They'd be taking a chance at corner or receiver with only four guys.
Alright time drive to the Cohn abode. Hope the game will be a high scoring affair. Call it 31-24, Pack.
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
More Harbaugh Paranoia, A Healthy Crabtree, A Hurt Spencer, and NFL Predictions
The first regular season Wednesday has come and gone, and the 49ers are barreling toward their opener against Seattle full steam ahead, with coach Jim Harbaugh at his tightly-wound, paranoid best up at the podium.
When asked why the team has three receivers listed for two starting spots atop the depth chart, with Joshua Morgan at one spot and both Ted Ginn and Braylon Edwards sharing the marquee at the other, Harbaugh's explanation was "We feel that both Ted Ginn and Braylon Edwards are starting caliber, so we list them that way. It's pretty self-explanatory."
Oh.
Does that mean when Michael Crabtree comes back fully healthy and he takes over the starting spot, that Morgan will no longer be "starting caliber?"
Should we assume since there aren't any guys sharing the top spot at other positions that none of them are starting caliber? Guys like Aldon Smith, Shawntae Spencer, Madieu Williams, Adam Snyder... none of them are starting caliber? Why would a coach repeatedly say he's perfectly comfortable about the prospect of starting rookie quarterback Colin Kaepernick if he's not starting caliber?
It's just so pointlessly silly. He's dealing with grown men in his locker room and grown men (and women) in the media. Do we really have to play these stupid games over every trivial thing? Is it really gonna hurt Ted Ginn's feelings if he's not listed as a starter? Will it affect the Seahawks preparation one iota? Just have a straightforward depth chart already. There's no rule saying you can't change it later.
Otherwise, you wind up needlessly painting yourself into corners trying to explain things without trying to come off as dishonest or hypocritical.
Then there was that question near the end of the press conference, when Harbaugh was asked to compare Todd Mortensen, who struggled mightily at BYU before flourishing under Harbaugh at the University at San Diego, with Alex Smith, whose career with the 49ers we're well familiar with. Obviously, the reporter was working on a positive story angle, talking about one quarterback who overcame struggles and adversity and how Smith might very well be another. Anyone could understand -- especially given that it was a beat guy who asked the question and not some agenda-driven columnist -- that it was an opening to wax some optimistic poetry on Smith's future.
Of course, Harbaugh passed, saying he doesn't want to compare players.
Not in a positive light, not in a negative light, not in any light. Apparently we're all supposed to pretend the last six years of Smith's career never happened. It was all a mirage, a figment of our imagination. The past is the past and we're looking forward, blah blah blah.
It's already pretty annoying, this tired mantra of not getting into comparisons. The whole point of sports is to compare things. That's why there's a scoreboard. One team has more, one team has less. It's why coaches choose who starts, or who makes the team and who rides the bench or gets cut. Harbaugh probably makes a thousand comparisons a day. When he sees something on the practice field he doesn't like, it's because he's subconsciously comparing it to what it should look like.
The truthful part of his statement isn't about not making comparisons. Rather, it's the "I don't want to," part. I'm sure Harbaugh would simply love to answer every single question "I don't want to tell you that," and for the most part he's doing precisely that.
**********************************************************************
Alright, enough bitching. None of you care about that stuff and none of us will either, if the team plays well and Harbaugh proves he can coach at this level. The news of the day, and I guess I've buried the lede in that sense, is that Crabtree was practicing, in what little portion of practice we were allowed to watch (dang it, I'm doing it again). He wasn't running full speed, more like 75% I'd say, but that's not to say that he's not capable of it. I stress that we were only watching warmups, with Smith and Kaepernick throwing passes to receivers who aren't being covered by anybody. Guys are pretty much stretching out their limbs and we're ushered out of there well before anybody lines up 11-on-11. Crabtree wasn't listed as "limited" or anything like that on the injury report, so we can only assume he's fully healthy and ready to go. The enigmatic receiver has promised he'll talk to his once he's back running routes and practicing, so he'll be out of excuses by the time we're at his locker tomorrow.
In fact, on the injury report -- the first one they've released since camp opened a month ago (crap, I can't help myself) -- the only name on it was safety Dashon Goldson, who confided to CSN Bay Area that he hurt his knee in practice last week before the final preseason game at San Diego and that he couldn't have played in that one even if it was a regular season game. Well, Goldson missed today's practice too, so it's looking more and more likely that Madieu Williams will start at free safety, with Reggie Smith backing him up. It's true that Smith was atop the depth chart when camp began, but he's missed so much time with his own knee injury (including all four preseason games) and just started practicing recently himself, so it's hard to imagine him starting in week 1.
***************************************************************************
Speaking of safeties, an interesting match-up to watch for against Seattle is going to be Donte Whitner against their new tight end Zach Miller, formerly of the Raiders. You may remember that Miller had quite a bit of success last year against the 49ers during their regular season meeting, when he burned then-rookie Taylor Mays and also their best coverage linebacker in Manny Lawson.
You say to yourself, "Well that won't happen again, almost anybody would be better than Mays," and while that's likely true, 49ers fans have to brace themselves for the reality that Whitner isn't exactly the second-coming of Ronnie Lott. Nor is he on par with guys like Troy Polamalu or Ed Reed. He's basically a rich man's Michael Lewis, and a guy who, at 26, is just entering his prime, but still an in-the-box safety. A tackle machine, yes, but not someone who can be counted on to check talented tight ends and quality receivers out of the backfield. Janie McCauley of the AP uncovered a troubling stat that Whitner actually allowed 10 (10!) touchdowns last season. Yikes.
For his part the personable Whitner isn't shying away from the match-up and he has an idea about the perception of his strengths and weaknesses as a player.
"I’m definitely excited for that match-up (with Miller)," he said. "We actually have the same agent, so we actually went through the free agency process together. I’m looking forward to it. I’m challenging myself. I’m challenging my teammates. It’s going to come down to some one-on-one battles with me and him. I know he played right across from here. He was in the Bay also. He’s a really good tight end in this league, but I think I see the best tight end in the National Football League here each and every day.
(Good answer.)
In fact, Whitner is the rare guy who admits to reading what the media and bloggers have to say about him.
"Coming from Buffalo I usually read a lot of the blogs and sometimes even fans," he explained. "They might not even know which defense you were in, you just might be in the area. It might not be your responsibility but they form their opinion based on what they see form the cut ups. Just a little extra motivation for myself."
You can't root in this business, of course, but lets just say I wouldn't mind seeing Whitner have a good day in coverage against the Seahawks.
*******************************************************************************
I'll have more about the match-up with Seattle on Friday, and a full-out 49ers preview on Saturday, but you'll forgive me if I ignore all the Harbaugh-Pete Carroll stuff for a couple of days. The columnists were out here in full force (save Ratto, who has apparently made it his goal to avoid 4949 Centennial Blvd. unless there's a gun to his head) hunting for that predictable story, but even more predictably, both coaches -- especially Harbaugh -- did what they could to pour cold water over that campfire.
Okay, technically Carroll did joke that he hopes to see a lot of boom mics at their pregame huddle so that the media can get "the real scoop" on how things are between the two, but both men claimed admiration for the other from a professional standpoint, but made it clear that they don't know each other socially and have no reason to. Harbaugh said he's not friendly with any coach in the NFL outside of his brother, so in that respect his relationship with Carroll isn't any different to him than the 30 other coaches in the league. However, he was wrong about that philosophy being standard operating procedure among coaches in the NFL. Lots of them are friends with each other, and good friends at that. Heck, some owe their current jobs to others.
I do agree with Harbaugh that for the most part the players will decide the game, not the coaches (that's almost always the case, unless there's a dramatic difference in the quality of the staffs, which is what the 49ers have been victims to in the past) and that it's an overrated story. I'm much more interested in the relationship between Harbaugh and Smith than I am in Harbaugh and Carroll. I also care about how Harbaugh is with us, and by extension, to the fans. That's everyday stuff. The Carroll thing is fleeting, just something to pass the time a couple weeks a year. The fact that it comes in the season opener, and the first game of Harbaugh's pro coaching career, pushes their personal angle into the back-burner in my mind. There's already so much other stuff to talk about.
*******************************************************************************
The thing that can't wait any longer is my predictions for the season, since the Thursday game between the Saints and defending champion Packers is coming up. What a beaut that one is, the last two Super Bowl winners and a pair of superstar quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. I'm scheduled to watch the game at the Cohn abode as young Grant has invited me over, and it should make for some good trash talk as we're squaring off against each other in the first week of fantasy and Brees and Greg Jennings are both on my roster.
So, without further ado...
AFC East:
1) NY Jets (11-5): Best secondary 1 thru 8 of anybody in the league, and I think Mark Sanchez takes another step forward.
2) New England (11-5): Everyone loves them, but I still see the same holes in their secondary, not to mention a lack of speed at receiver.
3) Miami (6-10): Some plucky young pass-rushers and a pair of good corners, but offense has to rely on Chad Henne and Reggie Bush.
4) Buffalo (5-11): They'll stop the run, and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is underrated, but there isn't much to like here. Their offensive line looks awful.
AFC North:
1) Baltimore (12-4): Remade their receiving corps in the off-season and got younger and faster. Defense needs rookie CB Jimmy Smith to contribute quickly.
2) Pittsburgh (10-6): The year after always seems to be Murphy's Law for Super Bowl losers. Steelers have shaky offensive tackles and overrated corners.
3) Cleveland (7-9): Organization taking positive steps, but still a couple years away. Need more at receiver, and playmakers on defense.
4) Cincinnati (3-13): Rookie starting QB, rookie receiver and a defense rebuilt around guys the 49ers didn't want. Oy vey.
AFC South:
1. Houston (10-6): I'm not sold on them as much as others. Defense showed pass-rushing potential, but it was only preseason. Need Arian Foster healthy.
2. Indianapolis (8-8): I didn't like this roster a whole lot even before Peyton Manning's injury woes came to light. A number of poor drafts in a row.
3. Tennessee (7-9): There's some talent here, especially at running back, but they have a stopgap veteran QB blocking a mobile rookie. Sounds familiar.
4. Jacksonville (4-12): Letting go of David Garrard signals they're pretty close to going with Blaine Gabbert at QB. He'll have to take his lumps.
AFC West:
1. San Diego (10-6): Love the offense, even with the platoon backs, but not sure their defense can pressure the passer consistently. Tougher schedule too.
2. Kansas City (9-7): They've got more talent on both sides of the ball than they get credit for, but losing TE Tony Moeaki will hurt a lot.
3. Denver (6-10): There isn't much on offense beyond Brandon Lloyd, but defense gets Elvis Dumervil back plus super-rookie 'backer Von Miller.
4. Oakland (5-11): They lost their best corner, their best run blocker and their best receiver in tight end Zach Miller. Where did they get better?
NFC East:
1. Philadelphia (12-4): They'll be close to unbeatable if that offensive line can keep Michael Vick and their skill guys healthy, but that's a big if.
2. Dallas (9-7): Getting Tony Romo back for the whole year will boost their fortunes, questions persist about their offensive line and secondary.
3. NY Giants (8-8): Their linebackers and secondary are beat up and Eli Manning looked inconsistent as ever in the preseason. Talented offense though.
4. Washington (5-11): That quarterback combo of Rex Grossman and John Beck might lead more cynical types to suspect they're tanking for Andrew Luck.
NFC North:
1. Green Bay (11-5): They've lost a lot of their reserves in the off-season, so either rookies step up or starters need to stay healthy. Not easy to repeat.
2. Minnesota (8-8): I like them a bit more than most. Donovan McNabb is due for a bounce-back year and they still have some elite players.
3. Detroit (7-9): Still a year or two away. They have no semblance of a secondary. Also questions at running back and with Stafford's wonky shoulder.
4. Chicago (7-9): Possibly the worst offensive line in the league and a less-than-impressive receiving corps around Jay Cutler. Overrated defense.
NFC South:
1. New Orleans (12-4): With rookie Mark Ingram aboard the offense should be unstoppable. Defense needs to prove it can get a pass rush without blitzing.
2. Tampa Bay (10-6): Young playmakers everywhere on offense and defense. Only problems are immaturity and a lack of quality depth behind starters.
3. Atlanta (10-6): Sure, offense looks dynamic, but what's there to love about their D? Their secondary is a mess. Same crew that gave up 48 points to Packers.
4. Carolina (3-13): If they intend to start Cam Newton the whole year it's gonna be ugly. It would be even if they didn't. Another crappy secondary.
NFC West:
1. St. Louis (9-7): Tough schedule, but the most complete team top to bottom. Defensive line has potential to pose a monster pass rush.
2. San Francisco (8-8): They'll be better than a lot of people think, but not quite good enough. That offensive line will be the death of them.
3. Arizona (7-9): Kevin Kolb is better than what they had last year, but not a franchise QB. Defense won't be able to pressure consistently.
4. Seattle (6-10): They might be terrible, possibly even on purpose, but their home field is worth two or three wins by itself.
Playoffs:
First round:
6) Pittsburgh over 3) Houston; 4) San Diego over 5) New England;
3) Green Bay over 6) Atlanta; 5) Tampa Bay over 4) St. Louis
Second round:
1) Baltimore over 5) New England; 3) San Diego over 2) NY Jets;
1) New Orleans over 5) Tampa Bay; 2) Philadelphia over 3) Green Bay
Conference Championships:
1) Baltimore over 4) San Diego; 1) New Orleans over 2) Philadelphia
Super Bowl:
New Orleans over Baltimore
Yeah, boring. Sue me. Should be a fun year and it all kicks off tomorrow. I like the Packers at home because the defending champion always wins the home debut on Thursday, though if any team can pull the upset, it's the Saints, who are probably more ready for the game. I think Green Bay's deep secondary is the difference. Yes, I like the Pack to cover the spread (-4.5).
When asked why the team has three receivers listed for two starting spots atop the depth chart, with Joshua Morgan at one spot and both Ted Ginn and Braylon Edwards sharing the marquee at the other, Harbaugh's explanation was "We feel that both Ted Ginn and Braylon Edwards are starting caliber, so we list them that way. It's pretty self-explanatory."
Oh.
Does that mean when Michael Crabtree comes back fully healthy and he takes over the starting spot, that Morgan will no longer be "starting caliber?"
Should we assume since there aren't any guys sharing the top spot at other positions that none of them are starting caliber? Guys like Aldon Smith, Shawntae Spencer, Madieu Williams, Adam Snyder... none of them are starting caliber? Why would a coach repeatedly say he's perfectly comfortable about the prospect of starting rookie quarterback Colin Kaepernick if he's not starting caliber?
It's just so pointlessly silly. He's dealing with grown men in his locker room and grown men (and women) in the media. Do we really have to play these stupid games over every trivial thing? Is it really gonna hurt Ted Ginn's feelings if he's not listed as a starter? Will it affect the Seahawks preparation one iota? Just have a straightforward depth chart already. There's no rule saying you can't change it later.
Otherwise, you wind up needlessly painting yourself into corners trying to explain things without trying to come off as dishonest or hypocritical.
Then there was that question near the end of the press conference, when Harbaugh was asked to compare Todd Mortensen, who struggled mightily at BYU before flourishing under Harbaugh at the University at San Diego, with Alex Smith, whose career with the 49ers we're well familiar with. Obviously, the reporter was working on a positive story angle, talking about one quarterback who overcame struggles and adversity and how Smith might very well be another. Anyone could understand -- especially given that it was a beat guy who asked the question and not some agenda-driven columnist -- that it was an opening to wax some optimistic poetry on Smith's future.
Of course, Harbaugh passed, saying he doesn't want to compare players.
Not in a positive light, not in a negative light, not in any light. Apparently we're all supposed to pretend the last six years of Smith's career never happened. It was all a mirage, a figment of our imagination. The past is the past and we're looking forward, blah blah blah.
It's already pretty annoying, this tired mantra of not getting into comparisons. The whole point of sports is to compare things. That's why there's a scoreboard. One team has more, one team has less. It's why coaches choose who starts, or who makes the team and who rides the bench or gets cut. Harbaugh probably makes a thousand comparisons a day. When he sees something on the practice field he doesn't like, it's because he's subconsciously comparing it to what it should look like.
The truthful part of his statement isn't about not making comparisons. Rather, it's the "I don't want to," part. I'm sure Harbaugh would simply love to answer every single question "I don't want to tell you that," and for the most part he's doing precisely that.
**********************************************************************
Alright, enough bitching. None of you care about that stuff and none of us will either, if the team plays well and Harbaugh proves he can coach at this level. The news of the day, and I guess I've buried the lede in that sense, is that Crabtree was practicing, in what little portion of practice we were allowed to watch (dang it, I'm doing it again). He wasn't running full speed, more like 75% I'd say, but that's not to say that he's not capable of it. I stress that we were only watching warmups, with Smith and Kaepernick throwing passes to receivers who aren't being covered by anybody. Guys are pretty much stretching out their limbs and we're ushered out of there well before anybody lines up 11-on-11. Crabtree wasn't listed as "limited" or anything like that on the injury report, so we can only assume he's fully healthy and ready to go. The enigmatic receiver has promised he'll talk to his once he's back running routes and practicing, so he'll be out of excuses by the time we're at his locker tomorrow.
In fact, on the injury report -- the first one they've released since camp opened a month ago (crap, I can't help myself) -- the only name on it was safety Dashon Goldson, who confided to CSN Bay Area that he hurt his knee in practice last week before the final preseason game at San Diego and that he couldn't have played in that one even if it was a regular season game. Well, Goldson missed today's practice too, so it's looking more and more likely that Madieu Williams will start at free safety, with Reggie Smith backing him up. It's true that Smith was atop the depth chart when camp began, but he's missed so much time with his own knee injury (including all four preseason games) and just started practicing recently himself, so it's hard to imagine him starting in week 1.
***************************************************************************
Speaking of safeties, an interesting match-up to watch for against Seattle is going to be Donte Whitner against their new tight end Zach Miller, formerly of the Raiders. You may remember that Miller had quite a bit of success last year against the 49ers during their regular season meeting, when he burned then-rookie Taylor Mays and also their best coverage linebacker in Manny Lawson.
You say to yourself, "Well that won't happen again, almost anybody would be better than Mays," and while that's likely true, 49ers fans have to brace themselves for the reality that Whitner isn't exactly the second-coming of Ronnie Lott. Nor is he on par with guys like Troy Polamalu or Ed Reed. He's basically a rich man's Michael Lewis, and a guy who, at 26, is just entering his prime, but still an in-the-box safety. A tackle machine, yes, but not someone who can be counted on to check talented tight ends and quality receivers out of the backfield. Janie McCauley of the AP uncovered a troubling stat that Whitner actually allowed 10 (10!) touchdowns last season. Yikes.
For his part the personable Whitner isn't shying away from the match-up and he has an idea about the perception of his strengths and weaknesses as a player.
"I’m definitely excited for that match-up (with Miller)," he said. "We actually have the same agent, so we actually went through the free agency process together. I’m looking forward to it. I’m challenging myself. I’m challenging my teammates. It’s going to come down to some one-on-one battles with me and him. I know he played right across from here. He was in the Bay also. He’s a really good tight end in this league, but I think I see the best tight end in the National Football League here each and every day.
(Good answer.)
In fact, Whitner is the rare guy who admits to reading what the media and bloggers have to say about him.
"Coming from Buffalo I usually read a lot of the blogs and sometimes even fans," he explained. "They might not even know which defense you were in, you just might be in the area. It might not be your responsibility but they form their opinion based on what they see form the cut ups. Just a little extra motivation for myself."
You can't root in this business, of course, but lets just say I wouldn't mind seeing Whitner have a good day in coverage against the Seahawks.
*******************************************************************************
I'll have more about the match-up with Seattle on Friday, and a full-out 49ers preview on Saturday, but you'll forgive me if I ignore all the Harbaugh-Pete Carroll stuff for a couple of days. The columnists were out here in full force (save Ratto, who has apparently made it his goal to avoid 4949 Centennial Blvd. unless there's a gun to his head) hunting for that predictable story, but even more predictably, both coaches -- especially Harbaugh -- did what they could to pour cold water over that campfire.
Okay, technically Carroll did joke that he hopes to see a lot of boom mics at their pregame huddle so that the media can get "the real scoop" on how things are between the two, but both men claimed admiration for the other from a professional standpoint, but made it clear that they don't know each other socially and have no reason to. Harbaugh said he's not friendly with any coach in the NFL outside of his brother, so in that respect his relationship with Carroll isn't any different to him than the 30 other coaches in the league. However, he was wrong about that philosophy being standard operating procedure among coaches in the NFL. Lots of them are friends with each other, and good friends at that. Heck, some owe their current jobs to others.
I do agree with Harbaugh that for the most part the players will decide the game, not the coaches (that's almost always the case, unless there's a dramatic difference in the quality of the staffs, which is what the 49ers have been victims to in the past) and that it's an overrated story. I'm much more interested in the relationship between Harbaugh and Smith than I am in Harbaugh and Carroll. I also care about how Harbaugh is with us, and by extension, to the fans. That's everyday stuff. The Carroll thing is fleeting, just something to pass the time a couple weeks a year. The fact that it comes in the season opener, and the first game of Harbaugh's pro coaching career, pushes their personal angle into the back-burner in my mind. There's already so much other stuff to talk about.
*******************************************************************************
The thing that can't wait any longer is my predictions for the season, since the Thursday game between the Saints and defending champion Packers is coming up. What a beaut that one is, the last two Super Bowl winners and a pair of superstar quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. I'm scheduled to watch the game at the Cohn abode as young Grant has invited me over, and it should make for some good trash talk as we're squaring off against each other in the first week of fantasy and Brees and Greg Jennings are both on my roster.
So, without further ado...
AFC East:
1) NY Jets (11-5): Best secondary 1 thru 8 of anybody in the league, and I think Mark Sanchez takes another step forward.
2) New England (11-5): Everyone loves them, but I still see the same holes in their secondary, not to mention a lack of speed at receiver.
3) Miami (6-10): Some plucky young pass-rushers and a pair of good corners, but offense has to rely on Chad Henne and Reggie Bush.
4) Buffalo (5-11): They'll stop the run, and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is underrated, but there isn't much to like here. Their offensive line looks awful.
AFC North:
1) Baltimore (12-4): Remade their receiving corps in the off-season and got younger and faster. Defense needs rookie CB Jimmy Smith to contribute quickly.
2) Pittsburgh (10-6): The year after always seems to be Murphy's Law for Super Bowl losers. Steelers have shaky offensive tackles and overrated corners.
3) Cleveland (7-9): Organization taking positive steps, but still a couple years away. Need more at receiver, and playmakers on defense.
4) Cincinnati (3-13): Rookie starting QB, rookie receiver and a defense rebuilt around guys the 49ers didn't want. Oy vey.
AFC South:
1. Houston (10-6): I'm not sold on them as much as others. Defense showed pass-rushing potential, but it was only preseason. Need Arian Foster healthy.
2. Indianapolis (8-8): I didn't like this roster a whole lot even before Peyton Manning's injury woes came to light. A number of poor drafts in a row.
3. Tennessee (7-9): There's some talent here, especially at running back, but they have a stopgap veteran QB blocking a mobile rookie. Sounds familiar.
4. Jacksonville (4-12): Letting go of David Garrard signals they're pretty close to going with Blaine Gabbert at QB. He'll have to take his lumps.
AFC West:
1. San Diego (10-6): Love the offense, even with the platoon backs, but not sure their defense can pressure the passer consistently. Tougher schedule too.
2. Kansas City (9-7): They've got more talent on both sides of the ball than they get credit for, but losing TE Tony Moeaki will hurt a lot.
3. Denver (6-10): There isn't much on offense beyond Brandon Lloyd, but defense gets Elvis Dumervil back plus super-rookie 'backer Von Miller.
4. Oakland (5-11): They lost their best corner, their best run blocker and their best receiver in tight end Zach Miller. Where did they get better?
NFC East:
1. Philadelphia (12-4): They'll be close to unbeatable if that offensive line can keep Michael Vick and their skill guys healthy, but that's a big if.
2. Dallas (9-7): Getting Tony Romo back for the whole year will boost their fortunes, questions persist about their offensive line and secondary.
3. NY Giants (8-8): Their linebackers and secondary are beat up and Eli Manning looked inconsistent as ever in the preseason. Talented offense though.
4. Washington (5-11): That quarterback combo of Rex Grossman and John Beck might lead more cynical types to suspect they're tanking for Andrew Luck.
NFC North:
1. Green Bay (11-5): They've lost a lot of their reserves in the off-season, so either rookies step up or starters need to stay healthy. Not easy to repeat.
2. Minnesota (8-8): I like them a bit more than most. Donovan McNabb is due for a bounce-back year and they still have some elite players.
3. Detroit (7-9): Still a year or two away. They have no semblance of a secondary. Also questions at running back and with Stafford's wonky shoulder.
4. Chicago (7-9): Possibly the worst offensive line in the league and a less-than-impressive receiving corps around Jay Cutler. Overrated defense.
NFC South:
1. New Orleans (12-4): With rookie Mark Ingram aboard the offense should be unstoppable. Defense needs to prove it can get a pass rush without blitzing.
2. Tampa Bay (10-6): Young playmakers everywhere on offense and defense. Only problems are immaturity and a lack of quality depth behind starters.
3. Atlanta (10-6): Sure, offense looks dynamic, but what's there to love about their D? Their secondary is a mess. Same crew that gave up 48 points to Packers.
4. Carolina (3-13): If they intend to start Cam Newton the whole year it's gonna be ugly. It would be even if they didn't. Another crappy secondary.
NFC West:
1. St. Louis (9-7): Tough schedule, but the most complete team top to bottom. Defensive line has potential to pose a monster pass rush.
2. San Francisco (8-8): They'll be better than a lot of people think, but not quite good enough. That offensive line will be the death of them.
3. Arizona (7-9): Kevin Kolb is better than what they had last year, but not a franchise QB. Defense won't be able to pressure consistently.
4. Seattle (6-10): They might be terrible, possibly even on purpose, but their home field is worth two or three wins by itself.
Playoffs:
First round:
6) Pittsburgh over 3) Houston; 4) San Diego over 5) New England;
3) Green Bay over 6) Atlanta; 5) Tampa Bay over 4) St. Louis
Second round:
1) Baltimore over 5) New England; 3) San Diego over 2) NY Jets;
1) New Orleans over 5) Tampa Bay; 2) Philadelphia over 3) Green Bay
Conference Championships:
1) Baltimore over 4) San Diego; 1) New Orleans over 2) Philadelphia
Super Bowl:
New Orleans over Baltimore
Yeah, boring. Sue me. Should be a fun year and it all kicks off tomorrow. I like the Packers at home because the defending champion always wins the home debut on Thursday, though if any team can pull the upset, it's the Saints, who are probably more ready for the game. I think Green Bay's deep secondary is the difference. Yes, I like the Pack to cover the spread (-4.5).
Sunday, September 4, 2011
Scott Tolzien's in, Keaton Kristick's down and Ronald Johnson's out: 49ers compile practice squad
The 49ers, as expected, signed a third quarterback to round out the roster, but it was not a veteran. On the surface that sounds surprising, or, if you want to be honest about it, it flat out bad idea given that they have Alex Smith starting and a schizophrenic offensive line in front of him. But look at what's out there. For the most part teams have held on to their veteran QBs.
Here's a list of the guys cut: Brodie Croyle (Arizona), John Parker Wilson (Atlanta), Adam Froman (Atlanta), Hunter Cantwell (Baltimore), Levi Brown (Buffalo), Joshua Nesbitt (Buffalo), Tony Pike (Carolina), Dan LeFevour (Cincinnati), Jarrett Brown (Cleveland), Tom Brandstater (Dallas), Adam Weber (Denver [sorry, Tebow fans]), Zac Robinson (Detroit), Graham Harrell (Green Bay), Dan Orlovsky (Indianapolis), Pat Devlin (Miami), Kevin O'Connell (Miami), Sean Canfield (New Orleans), Ryan Perrilloux (New York Giants), Drew Willy (New York Jets), Trent Edwards (Oakland), Scott Tolzien (San Diego), Jonathan Crompton (Tampa Bay), Rudy Carpenter (Tampa Bay), Matt Gutierrez (Washington), Kellen Clemens (Washington).
It's a veritable wasteland of young QBs that teams ran out of patience trying to develop or have ticketed to their practice squads to toil in obscurity. There are very, very few NFL starts here.
Clemens has made nine of them, with eight coming in the 2007 season for the Jets. He has a career 59.7 passer rating.
Croyle had ten starts (six of them in 2007) in five seasons for the Chiefs and has gone a perfect oh-and-10. His QB rating is 67.8.
Orlovsky made all seven of his career starts for the 2008 Lions. He went 0-7 and they went 0-16. His career rating is 71.3 (close to Alex Smith's career mark).
There's only one other guy on the list who's made any starts, and obviously that's Edwards, who's played in 37 games and started 33 of them. A 3rd-round pick out of Stanford for the Bills, Edwards peaked in his second season, starting 14 games, completing 65.5% of his passes for 2,699 yards and throwing 11 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. His QB rating of 85.4 is better than any season of Smith's career, for a reference point.
However, Edwards' career has taken a sharp turn for the worse since then and the Bills eventually gave up on him as a franchise QB prospect. He was waived early in the 2010 season, signed by the Jaguars, where he saw action in three games and started one, and signed as a free agent by the Raiders in the off-season. They cut him, deciding to go with Kyle Boller (Kyle Boller!!!11!) as the backup to Jason Campbell. For whatever reason, coach Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers wanted no piece of him. Edwards completed 22-of-39 passes (56.4%) for 254 yards, with one touchdown and one interception in the preseason, and was 3-of-6 for 36 yards and a pick against the 49ers on Aug. 20.
So, given all that information, the news that they claimed Tolzien off waivers from the Chargers isn't a big shock. Tolzien, along with Froman from Louisville, were two quarterbacks the team liked during the draft, and they likely would've pressed harder to sign one or the other if the CBA had allowed them to do so. Remember, the lockout was lifted for one day back then (when all the 49ers offensive guys got their playbooks), but it was forbidden for teams to sign anybody. Tolzien's agent steered him to San Diego, figuring that the 49ers weren't going to dump Smith or their 2nd-round pick, Colin Kaepernick, and that the team would likely add a veteran. The Chargers on the other hand had no other youngsters to compete with. Still, those roster spots are valuable, and San Diego probably figured they could stash Tolzien on their practice squad. They gambled there, and lost (not that GM A.J. Smith will cry into his fish taco about it, he's got Philip Rivers on his team for crying out loud).
Here's what we know about Tolzien: He was 21-5 the last two seasons as a starter for Wisconsin and is the university's all-time career leader in completion percentage (68.1). He also holds school records in single-season completions (211, in 2009) and single-season completion percentage (72.9, in 2010). He was the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm
Award winner last season and a Second-Team All-Big Ten honoree. He beat Ohio State last season, but lost the 2011 Rose Bowl to Andy Dalton and TCU 21-19.
You may recall watching Tolzien just a few days ago if you decided to take in that final preseason game at San Diego. Against the 49ers he was 16-of-23 (69.6%) for 226 yards, with one touchdown and one interception. He completed several long passes down the right sideline over Chris Culliver, who had tight coverage on those plays, but Culliver got the last laugh with a late interception on a rare Tolzien under-throw. For the preseason Tolzien finished 25-of-40 (62.5%) for 302 yards and that same one touchdown and one interception. His QB rating was 83.5.
So now the 49ers will have two rookies backing up Smith. Jim Harbaugh's gonna take a lot of heat for that, if anything goes wrong. It appears that he's got an extremely high faith in both Smith and the offensive line, and there's really no rationale for either.
Here's something to consider though -- Edwards wasn't technically the most-experienced quarterback cut on Saturday. Josh McCown has seen action in 49 games, with 31 starts. The 49ers might have figured that their only shot at Tolzien would be to put a waiver claim on him, necessitating a spot on the 53-man roster (POSTSCRIPT: Jason LaConfora of NFL Network tells me the Niners were the only team to put in a claim on him. Oh well.) Perhaps when the dust settles in a few weeks, they can try sneaking him through waivers and onto their practice squad and re-sign McCown to be Smith's backup.
Speaking of the practice squad, the 49ers have filled their eight slots there for the time being. Linebacker Keaton Kristick's Twitter joy at making the team was short-lived. He was released to make room for Tolzien before passing unclaimed through waivers.
The other seven guys are: C Chase Beeler, G/T Derek Hall, WR Joe Hastings, CB Cory Nelms, RB Xavier Omon, TE Konrad Reuland and LB Monte Simmons.
Beeler, Hall and Reuland were all Stanford guys who played under Harbaugh and safe bets for the practice squad all along. I wasn't impressed at all by Beeler, but I guess they needed an 11th offensive lineman and another guy who could snap the ball when they decided to cut Tony Wragge (who was signed by the Rams).
I was surprised nobody made a claim on Omon, who had 30 carries for 121 yards in the preseason. I think he'd be a top-three back for quite a few teams -- including the 49ers.
Nelms was more renowned as a track guy at Miami than a football player, but was timed at 4.38 in the 40-yard dash during his workout and did show some promise in camp and in the preseason. He should've had an interception in that Chargers game, but the ball clanked off his hands.
The two names that surprise me are Simmons and Hastings, neither of who did a thing in the preseason. I honestly can't think of a single receiver on the training camp roster who got less practice reps than Hastings, but I could be wrong. Similarly, Simmons got such little playing time in the games that he didn't record a single tackle in any of them. Both of them have to add some serious weight to survive at this level.
I do give the 49ers a ton of credit for not having Ronald Johnson on their practice squad. A lot of teams/GMs don't want to admit mistakes by completely casting draft picks aside so early, but the 49ers did just that with their 6th-round pick out of USC. Nothing against him personally, but Johnson was terrible in the preseason.
The team's roster shuffling looks done for now, but they may still elect to add a veteran tight end. If and when they do, they'll likely cut either DT Will Tukuafu or S Colin Jones.
************************************************************************************
Yesterday, Harbaugh said that Jones made the team largely (perhaps entirely) for his special teams prowess and to that end he would be one of the 46 players dressed on Sundays. So I got out the ol' notebook and started looking at various scenarios that would accommodate that.
Here's my best guess at their thinking:
QB (2): Tolzien sits, which would make sense since he has to learn the offense.
RB (3): Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter and Anthony Dixon will have roles on game day.
FB (2): Bruce Miller will contribute on special teams and fill in as a third tight end. Harbaugh will also use a sixth lineman, most likely tackle Alex Boone, as a third tight end in short-yardage situations.
WR (4): The odd man out would be Kyle Williams most weeks, but it could be Michael Crabtree for the first game if he's not ready to go.
TE (2): There's no third tight end to sit, so they're fine there.
OL (7): Rookies Daniel Kilgore and Mike Person are out. Adam Snyder will back up the interior three spots and Boone will be the swing tackle. Things get tricky if Snyder ever replaces Chilo Rachal in the starting lineup, because Rachal isn't versatile enough to play center. Then Kilgore would have to dress.
DL (6): My guess is that Ian Williams will be the odd man out because he was running on the third team during the preseason. Will Tukuafu could sit too, if they decide to go with just five guys. Ricky Jean Francois is versatile enough to play at nose and at end.
LB (7): Antwan Applewhite could sit, with either Aldon Smith or Parys Haralson backing up and getting plenty of playing time at both outside spots in a three man rotation with Ahmad Brooks. Larry Grant would be the top backup at both inside spots, while Blake Costanzo is primarily just a special teams guy.
CB (4): Shawntae Spencer might be a scratch until his hamstring heals, but after that it will be interesting to see if Tramaine Brock or Chris Culliver is the one down. Culliver can return kicks and has gotten better week after week, whereas Brock's regressed.
S (6): Dashon Goldson, Donte Whitner, Madieu Williams and Reggie Smith will all play, while C.J. Spillman and Colin Jones are special teams guys.
ST (3): Andy Lee punts and holds for kicks. David Akers is the kicker. Brian Jennings is the long snapper.
So, your seven guys not dressed and assuming everyone's healthy are: QB Tolzien, WR K. Williams, G/C Kilgore, T Person, NT I. Williams, LB Applewhite and CB Brock. They could play Applewhite and sit Tukuafu or sit both and play Kyle Williams, who can return kicks and has YAC skills.
Me? I wouldn't even have Jones on the roster in the first place. He's not that good on special teams. Dressing six safeties is kinda crazy.
************************************************************************************
Finally, a belated look at my fantasy team. I play in a 14-team league and was drafting second, so after deciding on Drew Brees over Michael Vick (don't trust him to stay healthy behind that line), I had to wait until the 27th pick to grab my second guy, settling on Dallas' Felix Jones when that bastard Grant Cohn stole Ahmad Bradshaw of the Giants one pick before me.
Here's the full roster:
2. QB Drew Brees, Saints
27. RB Felix Jones, Cowboys
30. WR Greg Jennings, Packers
55. WR Wes Welker, Patriots
58. TE Dallas Clark, Colts
83. RB Joseph Addai, Colts
86. RB James Starks, Packers
111. New York Jets Defense
114. WR Lee Evans, Ravens
139. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills
142. TE Tony Moeaki, Chiefs
167. RB Kendall Hunter, 49ers
170. WR Donald Driver, Packers
195. K Ryan Succop, Chiefs
198. RB Tashard Choice, Cowboys
223. WR Joshua Cribbs, Browns
226. LB Brian Urlacher, Bears
251. St. Louis Defense
254. K Adam Vinatieri, Colts
279. WR Donald Jones, Bills
No regrets with the first four picks, but I'm furious with myself for panicking and taking Clark in the 5th round, and not just because of the injury situation with Peyton Manning. Plenty of good tight ends were still evaluable and there was a run on #2 RBs after that pick, meaning that I lost out on Washington's Tim Hightower, Denver's Knowshon Moreno, Cincinnati's Cedric Benson, and both Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert from San Diego. I had to settle (sigh) on Addai, who's extremely injury prone.
The Starks pick in round six will either make me look like a genius or a dummy, depending on whether he beats out Ryan Grant for a starting job with the Packers. If he does, then I can park Addai on the bench.
Moeaki was lost for the season with a torn ACL a couple days after our draft, so I've replaced him with Philly's Brent Celek. Vick has vowed to throw to Celek more this season, so we'll see. I might have to start him if Manning's out.
The Hunter pick was made in case Gore goes down. I'm hoping he doesn't, because I like Gore personally, but you can't ignore the fact that he's gotten fewer carries every season since 2006.
Choice is a handcuff for Felix Jones. Unless they decide to use DeMarco Murray instead, in which case I'd be boned.
For a look at our draft, here's the link. I'm not sure if it will work for people who aren't in it or not. Right now Grant's team (lazily named SQUAD) looks the best to me. That's what I get for inviting him, I guess.
Here's a list of the guys cut: Brodie Croyle (Arizona), John Parker Wilson (Atlanta), Adam Froman (Atlanta), Hunter Cantwell (Baltimore), Levi Brown (Buffalo), Joshua Nesbitt (Buffalo), Tony Pike (Carolina), Dan LeFevour (Cincinnati), Jarrett Brown (Cleveland), Tom Brandstater (Dallas), Adam Weber (Denver [sorry, Tebow fans]), Zac Robinson (Detroit), Graham Harrell (Green Bay), Dan Orlovsky (Indianapolis), Pat Devlin (Miami), Kevin O'Connell (Miami), Sean Canfield (New Orleans), Ryan Perrilloux (New York Giants), Drew Willy (New York Jets), Trent Edwards (Oakland), Scott Tolzien (San Diego), Jonathan Crompton (Tampa Bay), Rudy Carpenter (Tampa Bay), Matt Gutierrez (Washington), Kellen Clemens (Washington).
It's a veritable wasteland of young QBs that teams ran out of patience trying to develop or have ticketed to their practice squads to toil in obscurity. There are very, very few NFL starts here.
Clemens has made nine of them, with eight coming in the 2007 season for the Jets. He has a career 59.7 passer rating.
Croyle had ten starts (six of them in 2007) in five seasons for the Chiefs and has gone a perfect oh-and-10. His QB rating is 67.8.
Orlovsky made all seven of his career starts for the 2008 Lions. He went 0-7 and they went 0-16. His career rating is 71.3 (close to Alex Smith's career mark).
There's only one other guy on the list who's made any starts, and obviously that's Edwards, who's played in 37 games and started 33 of them. A 3rd-round pick out of Stanford for the Bills, Edwards peaked in his second season, starting 14 games, completing 65.5% of his passes for 2,699 yards and throwing 11 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. His QB rating of 85.4 is better than any season of Smith's career, for a reference point.
However, Edwards' career has taken a sharp turn for the worse since then and the Bills eventually gave up on him as a franchise QB prospect. He was waived early in the 2010 season, signed by the Jaguars, where he saw action in three games and started one, and signed as a free agent by the Raiders in the off-season. They cut him, deciding to go with Kyle Boller (Kyle Boller!!!11!) as the backup to Jason Campbell. For whatever reason, coach Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers wanted no piece of him. Edwards completed 22-of-39 passes (56.4%) for 254 yards, with one touchdown and one interception in the preseason, and was 3-of-6 for 36 yards and a pick against the 49ers on Aug. 20.
So, given all that information, the news that they claimed Tolzien off waivers from the Chargers isn't a big shock. Tolzien, along with Froman from Louisville, were two quarterbacks the team liked during the draft, and they likely would've pressed harder to sign one or the other if the CBA had allowed them to do so. Remember, the lockout was lifted for one day back then (when all the 49ers offensive guys got their playbooks), but it was forbidden for teams to sign anybody. Tolzien's agent steered him to San Diego, figuring that the 49ers weren't going to dump Smith or their 2nd-round pick, Colin Kaepernick, and that the team would likely add a veteran. The Chargers on the other hand had no other youngsters to compete with. Still, those roster spots are valuable, and San Diego probably figured they could stash Tolzien on their practice squad. They gambled there, and lost (not that GM A.J. Smith will cry into his fish taco about it, he's got Philip Rivers on his team for crying out loud).
Here's what we know about Tolzien: He was 21-5 the last two seasons as a starter for Wisconsin and is the university's all-time career leader in completion percentage (68.1). He also holds school records in single-season completions (211, in 2009) and single-season completion percentage (72.9, in 2010). He was the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm
Award winner last season and a Second-Team All-Big Ten honoree. He beat Ohio State last season, but lost the 2011 Rose Bowl to Andy Dalton and TCU 21-19.
You may recall watching Tolzien just a few days ago if you decided to take in that final preseason game at San Diego. Against the 49ers he was 16-of-23 (69.6%) for 226 yards, with one touchdown and one interception. He completed several long passes down the right sideline over Chris Culliver, who had tight coverage on those plays, but Culliver got the last laugh with a late interception on a rare Tolzien under-throw. For the preseason Tolzien finished 25-of-40 (62.5%) for 302 yards and that same one touchdown and one interception. His QB rating was 83.5.
So now the 49ers will have two rookies backing up Smith. Jim Harbaugh's gonna take a lot of heat for that, if anything goes wrong. It appears that he's got an extremely high faith in both Smith and the offensive line, and there's really no rationale for either.
Here's something to consider though -- Edwards wasn't technically the most-experienced quarterback cut on Saturday. Josh McCown has seen action in 49 games, with 31 starts. The 49ers might have figured that their only shot at Tolzien would be to put a waiver claim on him, necessitating a spot on the 53-man roster (POSTSCRIPT: Jason LaConfora of NFL Network tells me the Niners were the only team to put in a claim on him. Oh well.) Perhaps when the dust settles in a few weeks, they can try sneaking him through waivers and onto their practice squad and re-sign McCown to be Smith's backup.
Speaking of the practice squad, the 49ers have filled their eight slots there for the time being. Linebacker Keaton Kristick's Twitter joy at making the team was short-lived. He was released to make room for Tolzien before passing unclaimed through waivers.
The other seven guys are: C Chase Beeler, G/T Derek Hall, WR Joe Hastings, CB Cory Nelms, RB Xavier Omon, TE Konrad Reuland and LB Monte Simmons.
Beeler, Hall and Reuland were all Stanford guys who played under Harbaugh and safe bets for the practice squad all along. I wasn't impressed at all by Beeler, but I guess they needed an 11th offensive lineman and another guy who could snap the ball when they decided to cut Tony Wragge (who was signed by the Rams).
I was surprised nobody made a claim on Omon, who had 30 carries for 121 yards in the preseason. I think he'd be a top-three back for quite a few teams -- including the 49ers.
Nelms was more renowned as a track guy at Miami than a football player, but was timed at 4.38 in the 40-yard dash during his workout and did show some promise in camp and in the preseason. He should've had an interception in that Chargers game, but the ball clanked off his hands.
The two names that surprise me are Simmons and Hastings, neither of who did a thing in the preseason. I honestly can't think of a single receiver on the training camp roster who got less practice reps than Hastings, but I could be wrong. Similarly, Simmons got such little playing time in the games that he didn't record a single tackle in any of them. Both of them have to add some serious weight to survive at this level.
I do give the 49ers a ton of credit for not having Ronald Johnson on their practice squad. A lot of teams/GMs don't want to admit mistakes by completely casting draft picks aside so early, but the 49ers did just that with their 6th-round pick out of USC. Nothing against him personally, but Johnson was terrible in the preseason.
The team's roster shuffling looks done for now, but they may still elect to add a veteran tight end. If and when they do, they'll likely cut either DT Will Tukuafu or S Colin Jones.
************************************************************************************
Yesterday, Harbaugh said that Jones made the team largely (perhaps entirely) for his special teams prowess and to that end he would be one of the 46 players dressed on Sundays. So I got out the ol' notebook and started looking at various scenarios that would accommodate that.
Here's my best guess at their thinking:
QB (2): Tolzien sits, which would make sense since he has to learn the offense.
RB (3): Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter and Anthony Dixon will have roles on game day.
FB (2): Bruce Miller will contribute on special teams and fill in as a third tight end. Harbaugh will also use a sixth lineman, most likely tackle Alex Boone, as a third tight end in short-yardage situations.
WR (4): The odd man out would be Kyle Williams most weeks, but it could be Michael Crabtree for the first game if he's not ready to go.
TE (2): There's no third tight end to sit, so they're fine there.
OL (7): Rookies Daniel Kilgore and Mike Person are out. Adam Snyder will back up the interior three spots and Boone will be the swing tackle. Things get tricky if Snyder ever replaces Chilo Rachal in the starting lineup, because Rachal isn't versatile enough to play center. Then Kilgore would have to dress.
DL (6): My guess is that Ian Williams will be the odd man out because he was running on the third team during the preseason. Will Tukuafu could sit too, if they decide to go with just five guys. Ricky Jean Francois is versatile enough to play at nose and at end.
LB (7): Antwan Applewhite could sit, with either Aldon Smith or Parys Haralson backing up and getting plenty of playing time at both outside spots in a three man rotation with Ahmad Brooks. Larry Grant would be the top backup at both inside spots, while Blake Costanzo is primarily just a special teams guy.
CB (4): Shawntae Spencer might be a scratch until his hamstring heals, but after that it will be interesting to see if Tramaine Brock or Chris Culliver is the one down. Culliver can return kicks and has gotten better week after week, whereas Brock's regressed.
S (6): Dashon Goldson, Donte Whitner, Madieu Williams and Reggie Smith will all play, while C.J. Spillman and Colin Jones are special teams guys.
ST (3): Andy Lee punts and holds for kicks. David Akers is the kicker. Brian Jennings is the long snapper.
So, your seven guys not dressed and assuming everyone's healthy are: QB Tolzien, WR K. Williams, G/C Kilgore, T Person, NT I. Williams, LB Applewhite and CB Brock. They could play Applewhite and sit Tukuafu or sit both and play Kyle Williams, who can return kicks and has YAC skills.
Me? I wouldn't even have Jones on the roster in the first place. He's not that good on special teams. Dressing six safeties is kinda crazy.
************************************************************************************
Finally, a belated look at my fantasy team. I play in a 14-team league and was drafting second, so after deciding on Drew Brees over Michael Vick (don't trust him to stay healthy behind that line), I had to wait until the 27th pick to grab my second guy, settling on Dallas' Felix Jones when that bastard Grant Cohn stole Ahmad Bradshaw of the Giants one pick before me.
Here's the full roster:
2. QB Drew Brees, Saints
27. RB Felix Jones, Cowboys
30. WR Greg Jennings, Packers
55. WR Wes Welker, Patriots
58. TE Dallas Clark, Colts
83. RB Joseph Addai, Colts
86. RB James Starks, Packers
111. New York Jets Defense
114. WR Lee Evans, Ravens
139. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills
142. TE Tony Moeaki, Chiefs
167. RB Kendall Hunter, 49ers
170. WR Donald Driver, Packers
195. K Ryan Succop, Chiefs
198. RB Tashard Choice, Cowboys
223. WR Joshua Cribbs, Browns
226. LB Brian Urlacher, Bears
251. St. Louis Defense
254. K Adam Vinatieri, Colts
279. WR Donald Jones, Bills
No regrets with the first four picks, but I'm furious with myself for panicking and taking Clark in the 5th round, and not just because of the injury situation with Peyton Manning. Plenty of good tight ends were still evaluable and there was a run on #2 RBs after that pick, meaning that I lost out on Washington's Tim Hightower, Denver's Knowshon Moreno, Cincinnati's Cedric Benson, and both Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert from San Diego. I had to settle (sigh) on Addai, who's extremely injury prone.
The Starks pick in round six will either make me look like a genius or a dummy, depending on whether he beats out Ryan Grant for a starting job with the Packers. If he does, then I can park Addai on the bench.
Moeaki was lost for the season with a torn ACL a couple days after our draft, so I've replaced him with Philly's Brent Celek. Vick has vowed to throw to Celek more this season, so we'll see. I might have to start him if Manning's out.
The Hunter pick was made in case Gore goes down. I'm hoping he doesn't, because I like Gore personally, but you can't ignore the fact that he's gotten fewer carries every season since 2006.
Choice is a handcuff for Felix Jones. Unless they decide to use DeMarco Murray instead, in which case I'd be boned.
For a look at our draft, here's the link. I'm not sure if it will work for people who aren't in it or not. Right now Grant's team (lazily named SQUAD) looks the best to me. That's what I get for inviting him, I guess.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)