More Harbaugh Paranoia, A Healthy Crabtree, A Hurt Spencer, and NFL Predictions

The first regular season Wednesday has come and gone, and the 49ers are barreling toward their opener against Seattle full steam ahead, with coach Jim Harbaugh at his tightly-wound, paranoid best up at the podium.

When asked why the team has three receivers listed for two starting spots atop the depth chart, with Joshua Morgan at one spot and both Ted Ginn and Braylon Edwards sharing the marquee at the other, Harbaugh's explanation was "We feel that both Ted Ginn and Braylon Edwards are starting caliber, so we list them that way. It's pretty self-explanatory."

Oh.

Does that mean when Michael Crabtree comes back fully healthy and he takes over the starting spot, that Morgan will no longer be "starting caliber?"

Should we assume since there aren't any guys sharing the top spot at other positions that none of them are starting caliber? Guys like Aldon Smith, Shawntae Spencer, Madieu Williams, Adam Snyder... none of them are starting caliber? Why would a coach repeatedly say he's perfectly comfortable about the prospect of starting rookie quarterback Colin Kaepernick if he's not starting caliber?

It's just so pointlessly silly. He's dealing with grown men in his locker room and grown men (and women) in the media. Do we really have to play these stupid games over every trivial thing? Is it really gonna hurt Ted Ginn's feelings if he's not listed as a starter? Will it affect the Seahawks preparation one iota? Just have a straightforward depth chart already. There's no rule saying you can't change it later.
Otherwise, you wind up needlessly painting yourself into corners trying to explain things without trying to come off as dishonest or hypocritical.

Then there was that question near the end of the press conference, when Harbaugh was asked to compare Todd Mortensen, who struggled mightily at BYU before flourishing under Harbaugh at the University at San Diego, with Alex Smith, whose career with the 49ers we're well familiar with. Obviously, the reporter was working on a positive story angle, talking about one quarterback who overcame struggles and adversity and how Smith might very well be another. Anyone could understand -- especially given that it was a beat guy who asked the question and not some agenda-driven columnist -- that it was an opening to wax some optimistic poetry on Smith's future.

Of course, Harbaugh passed, saying he doesn't want to compare players.

Not in a positive light, not in a negative light, not in any light. Apparently we're all supposed to pretend the last six years of Smith's career never happened. It was all a mirage, a figment of our imagination. The past is the past and we're looking forward, blah blah blah.

It's already pretty annoying, this tired mantra of not getting into comparisons. The whole point of sports is to compare things. That's why there's a scoreboard. One team has more, one team has less. It's why coaches choose who starts, or who makes the team and who rides the bench or gets cut. Harbaugh probably makes a thousand comparisons a day. When he sees something on the practice field he doesn't like, it's because he's subconsciously comparing it to what it should look like.

The truthful part of his statement isn't about not making comparisons. Rather, it's the "I don't want to," part. I'm sure Harbaugh would simply love to answer every single question "I don't want to tell you that," and for the most part he's doing precisely that.
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Alright, enough bitching. None of you care about that stuff and none of us will either, if the team plays well and Harbaugh proves he can coach at this level. The news of the day, and I guess I've buried the lede in that sense, is that Crabtree was practicing, in what little portion of practice we were allowed to watch (dang it, I'm doing it again). He wasn't running full speed, more like 75% I'd say, but that's not to say that he's not capable of it. I stress that we were only watching warmups, with Smith and Kaepernick throwing passes to receivers who aren't being covered by anybody. Guys are pretty much stretching out their limbs and we're ushered out of there well before anybody lines up 11-on-11. Crabtree wasn't listed as "limited" or anything like that on the injury report, so we can only assume he's fully healthy and ready to go. The enigmatic receiver has promised he'll talk to his once he's back running routes and practicing, so he'll be out of excuses by the time we're at his locker tomorrow.

In fact, on the injury report -- the first one they've released since camp opened a month ago (crap, I can't help myself) -- the only name on it was safety Dashon Goldson, who confided to CSN Bay Area that he hurt his knee in practice last week before the final preseason game at San Diego and that he couldn't have played in that one even if it was a regular season game. Well, Goldson missed today's practice too, so it's looking more and more likely that Madieu Williams will start at free safety, with Reggie Smith backing him up. It's true that Smith was atop the depth chart when camp began, but he's missed so much time with his own knee injury (including all four preseason games) and just started practicing recently himself, so it's hard to imagine him starting in week 1.
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Speaking of safeties, an interesting match-up to watch for against Seattle is going to be Donte Whitner against their new tight end Zach Miller, formerly of the Raiders. You may remember that Miller had quite a bit of success last year against the 49ers during their regular season meeting, when he burned then-rookie Taylor Mays and also their best coverage linebacker in Manny Lawson.

You say to yourself, "Well that won't happen again, almost anybody would be better than Mays," and while that's likely true, 49ers fans have to brace themselves for the reality that Whitner isn't exactly the second-coming of Ronnie Lott. Nor is he on par with guys like Troy Polamalu or Ed Reed. He's basically a rich man's Michael Lewis, and a guy who, at 26, is just entering his prime, but still an in-the-box safety. A tackle machine, yes, but not someone who can be counted on to check talented tight ends and quality receivers out of the backfield. Janie McCauley of the AP uncovered a troubling stat that Whitner actually allowed 10 (10!) touchdowns last season. Yikes.

For his part the personable Whitner isn't shying away from the match-up and he has an idea about the perception of his strengths and weaknesses as a player.

"I’m definitely excited for that match-up (with Miller)," he said. "We actually have the same agent, so we actually went through the free agency process together. I’m looking forward to it. I’m challenging myself. I’m challenging my teammates. It’s going to come down to some one-on-one battles with me and him. I know he played right across from here. He was in the Bay also. He’s a really good tight end in this league, but I think I see the best tight end in the National Football League here each and every day.

(Good answer.)

In fact, Whitner is the rare guy who admits to reading what the media and bloggers have to say about him.

"Coming from Buffalo I usually read a lot of the blogs and sometimes even fans," he explained. "They might not even know which defense you were in, you just might be in the area. It might not be your responsibility but they form their opinion based on what they see form the cut ups. Just a little extra motivation for myself."

You can't root in this business, of course, but lets just say I wouldn't mind seeing Whitner have a good day in coverage against the Seahawks.
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I'll have more about the match-up with Seattle on Friday, and a full-out 49ers preview on Saturday, but you'll forgive me if I ignore all the Harbaugh-Pete Carroll stuff for a couple of days. The columnists were out here in full force (save Ratto, who has apparently made it his goal to avoid 4949 Centennial Blvd. unless there's a gun to his head) hunting for that predictable story, but even more predictably, both coaches -- especially Harbaugh -- did what they could to pour cold water over that campfire.

Okay, technically Carroll did joke that he hopes to see a lot of boom mics at their pregame huddle so that the media can get "the real scoop" on how things are between the two, but both men claimed admiration for the other from a professional standpoint, but made it clear that they don't know each other socially and have no reason to. Harbaugh said he's not friendly with any coach in the NFL outside of his brother, so in that respect his relationship with Carroll isn't any different to him than the 30 other coaches in the league. However, he was wrong about that philosophy being standard operating procedure among coaches in the NFL. Lots of them are friends with each other, and good friends at that. Heck, some owe their current jobs to others.

I do agree with Harbaugh that for the most part the players will decide the game, not the coaches (that's almost always the case, unless there's a dramatic difference in the quality of the staffs, which is what the 49ers have been victims to in the past) and that it's an overrated story. I'm much more interested in the relationship between Harbaugh and Smith than I am in Harbaugh and Carroll. I also care about how Harbaugh is with us, and by extension, to the fans. That's everyday stuff. The Carroll thing is fleeting, just something to pass the time a couple weeks a year. The fact that it comes in the season opener, and the first game of Harbaugh's pro coaching career, pushes their personal angle into the back-burner in my mind. There's already so much other stuff to talk about.
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The thing that can't wait any longer is my predictions for the season, since the Thursday game between the Saints and defending champion Packers is coming up. What a beaut that one is, the last two Super Bowl winners and a pair of superstar quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. I'm scheduled to watch the game at the Cohn abode as young Grant has invited me over, and it should make for some good trash talk as we're squaring off against each other in the first week of fantasy and Brees and Greg Jennings are both on my roster.

So, without further ado...

AFC East:

1) NY Jets (11-5): Best secondary 1 thru 8 of anybody in the league, and I think Mark Sanchez takes another step forward.
2) New England (11-5): Everyone loves them, but I still see the same holes in their secondary, not to mention a lack of speed at receiver.
3) Miami (6-10): Some plucky young pass-rushers and a pair of good corners, but offense has to rely on Chad Henne and Reggie Bush.
4) Buffalo (5-11): They'll stop the run, and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is underrated, but there isn't much to like here. Their offensive line looks awful.

AFC North:

1) Baltimore (12-4): Remade their receiving corps in the off-season and got younger and faster. Defense needs rookie CB Jimmy Smith to contribute quickly.
2) Pittsburgh (10-6): The year after always seems to be Murphy's Law for Super Bowl losers. Steelers have shaky offensive tackles and overrated corners.
3) Cleveland (7-9): Organization taking positive steps, but still a couple years away. Need more at receiver, and playmakers on defense.
4) Cincinnati (3-13): Rookie starting QB, rookie receiver and a defense rebuilt around guys the 49ers didn't want. Oy vey.

AFC South:

1. Houston (10-6): I'm not sold on them as much as others. Defense showed pass-rushing potential, but it was only preseason. Need Arian Foster healthy.
2. Indianapolis (8-8): I didn't like this roster a whole lot even before Peyton Manning's injury woes came to light. A number of poor drafts in a row.
3. Tennessee (7-9): There's some talent here, especially at running back, but they have a stopgap veteran QB blocking a mobile rookie. Sounds familiar.
4. Jacksonville (4-12): Letting go of David Garrard signals they're pretty close to going with Blaine Gabbert at QB. He'll have to take his lumps.

AFC West:

1. San Diego (10-6): Love the offense, even with the platoon backs, but not sure their defense can pressure the passer consistently. Tougher schedule too.
2. Kansas City (9-7): They've got more talent on both sides of the ball than they get credit for, but losing TE Tony Moeaki will hurt a lot.
3. Denver (6-10): There isn't much on offense beyond Brandon Lloyd, but defense gets Elvis Dumervil back plus super-rookie 'backer Von Miller.
4. Oakland (5-11): They lost their best corner, their best run blocker and their best receiver in tight end Zach Miller. Where did they get better?

NFC East:

1. Philadelphia (12-4): They'll be close to unbeatable if that offensive line can keep Michael Vick and their skill guys healthy, but that's a big if.
2. Dallas (9-7): Getting Tony Romo back for the whole year will boost their fortunes, questions persist about their offensive line and secondary.
3. NY Giants (8-8): Their linebackers and secondary are beat up and Eli Manning looked inconsistent as ever in the preseason. Talented offense though.
4. Washington (5-11): That quarterback combo of Rex Grossman and John Beck might lead more cynical types to suspect they're tanking for Andrew Luck.

NFC North:

1. Green Bay (11-5): They've lost a lot of their reserves in the off-season, so either rookies step up or starters need to stay healthy. Not easy to repeat.
2. Minnesota (8-8): I like them a bit more than most. Donovan McNabb is due for a bounce-back year and they still have some elite players.
3. Detroit (7-9): Still a year or two away. They have no semblance of a secondary. Also questions at running back and with Stafford's wonky shoulder.
4. Chicago (7-9): Possibly the worst offensive line in the league and a less-than-impressive receiving corps around Jay Cutler. Overrated defense.

NFC South:

1. New Orleans (12-4): With rookie Mark Ingram aboard the offense should be unstoppable. Defense needs to prove it can get a pass rush without blitzing.
2. Tampa Bay (10-6): Young playmakers everywhere on offense and defense. Only problems are immaturity and a lack of quality depth behind starters.
3. Atlanta (10-6): Sure, offense looks dynamic, but what's there to love about their D? Their secondary is a mess. Same crew that gave up 48 points to Packers.
4. Carolina (3-13): If they intend to start Cam Newton the whole year it's gonna be ugly. It would be even if they didn't. Another crappy secondary.

NFC West:

1. St. Louis (9-7): Tough schedule, but the most complete team top to bottom. Defensive line has potential to pose a monster pass rush.
2. San Francisco (8-8): They'll be better than a lot of people think, but not quite good enough. That offensive line will be the death of them.
3. Arizona (7-9): Kevin Kolb is better than what they had last year, but not a franchise QB. Defense won't be able to pressure consistently.
4. Seattle (6-10): They might be terrible, possibly even on purpose, but their home field is worth two or three wins by itself.

Playoffs:

First round:

6) Pittsburgh over 3) Houston; 4) San Diego over 5) New England;
3) Green Bay over 6) Atlanta; 5) Tampa Bay over 4) St. Louis

Second round:

1) Baltimore over 5) New England; 3) San Diego over 2) NY Jets;
1) New Orleans over 5) Tampa Bay; 2) Philadelphia over 3) Green Bay

Conference Championships:

1) Baltimore over 4) San Diego; 1) New Orleans over 2) Philadelphia

Super Bowl:

New Orleans over Baltimore

Yeah, boring. Sue me. Should be a fun year and it all kicks off tomorrow. I like the Packers at home because the defending champion always wins the home debut on Thursday, though if any team can pull the upset, it's the Saints, who are probably more ready for the game. I think Green Bay's deep secondary is the difference. Yes, I like the Pack to cover the spread (-4.5).