As you've no doubt heard, one of 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh's trademark inspirational catchphrases is to ask the team after wins, "Who's got it better than us?" where afterward, the team answers, in unison, "Noooooo-body."
The origins of it come from Harbaugh's humble beginnings, where his father would use the saying to rally the family when times got tough. Harbaugh took the rhetorical to heart and adopted it as a coach to lift up his team's confidence, knowing full well that on most day's his players weren't the most talented ones on the field.
So it's a bit odd then, that these days when Harbaugh asks his charges who's got it better than them, the answer they yell back at him is damn close to the truth. According to the gang at Football Outsiders, the 49ers are currently the second-likeliest team to make the postseason, at 89.1 percent, trailing only the 4-0 defending champion Green Bay Packers. Our local gridironers have a two-game lead against division mates Arizona and Seattle and a three game advantage over the preseason NFC West favorite St. Louis Rams, who, in their decimated condition, wouldn't even be favorites in the Pac-12.
The Cardinals and Seahawks next games are both on the road, which has not been nearly as hospitable to them as it has to the 49ers this year. The Rams, meanwhile, get the reprieve of a bye week, but have to visit the aforementioned Packers the Sunday after that, meaning they're a mortal lock for 0-5 (kind of like how the 49ers were at Philly, but mortal-er).
Your Niners, on the other hand, are at home against the wholly annoying Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a squad who dominated them at the 'Stick last season to the tune of 21-0. Then, as now, San Francisco entered the game on the heels of a two-game winning streak and full of confidence. The difference is the last couple of seasons they had a coaching staff that was exposed as lazy, arrogant and under-prepared when times were good and now they have Harbaugh, who might tell his players they're not half bad after wins but spends the rest of the week tirelessly chewing over every last detail like some hyperactive badger. The next time he takes an opponent lightly will be the first, and he's got enough guys on the roster who remember all too well the pounding they took from these Bucs.
Another key difference is this time Harbaugh will have Alex Smith under center, whereas last time they had to make do with Troy Smith. The Buccaneers coaches quickly discovered that the latter was next to useless once you took the play-action pass away from him and the Troy Smith Era, which began with much promise, quickly faded into a footnote in 49ers lore.
You know what? It's aggravating to keep writing "Alex Smith" and "Troy Smith" over and over, so for the purposes of this preview, Alex will now be referred to as "Utah" and Troy will be "Ohio," kapis?
Our Utah is far more accurate -- albeit in a dink-and-dunk fashion -- than Ohio ever was and he's as red-hot (97.7 QB rating, 8th in the NFL) as he can ever possibly be. I dare suggest that it's been fairly established that if he gets a modicum of protection, that Utah can string a few completions together and move the chains.
Therein lies the rub, of course. The Bucs defense had six sacks when they visited a year ago and that was against, again, Ohio, who is a wee bit more mobile than Utah. The 49ers offensive line actually had an encouraging game against the Philadelphia Eagles in that they allowed "only" three sacks, though to be fair to them they dominated Philly's smallish front in the run game.
Harbaugh already benched the main culprit in right guard (now ex-right guard) Chilo Rachal, so now the weak link is right tackle Anthony Davis, who gave up a hat trick of sacks to Eagle end Jason Babin -- and was fined 25 large for a pair of leg-whips -- and who struggled mightily in these teams' previous engagement. His match-up will be Michael Bennett, who had a pair of sacks himself in Monday's win over Indy.
Even more foreboding is the other side of the ball, where nose tackle Isaac Sopoaga picked the wrong week to come down a staph infection. Ricky Jean Francois, who admitted he's not big enough or fast enough to be an ideal starter, will start in his place. Jean Francois was memorably rag-dolled as a rookie against the Packers and said that game woke him up and made him realize he needs to prepare as though he's going to be a starter every week and to focus on his technique to make up for his physical limitations.
Jean Francois and veteran linemates Justin Smith and Ray McDonald will have to be at their best occupying blockers, because the Bucs will be perfectly happy to stubbornly hand the ball over and over to LeGerrette Blount, whom safety Dashon Goldson aptly described as "a load." Blount is bigger than both of the 49ers inside backers, Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman, so it would probably be a good thing for him to not have a head of steam when he encounters those gentlemen. And heaven forbid if it's left to the defensive backs to bring Blount down, because he's the type of galoot that tempts corners across the land to make, as Deion Sanders cheerfully puts it, "a business decision," i.e. getting the heck of the way and preserving one's body in order to be able to cash checks in the future.
The Buccaneers are troublesome because while they're not world beaters, they're not bad at anything. Their defense has talent at all three levels, especially at corner with Ronde Barber and Aqib Talib. Their defensive line features three first round picks and a fourth guy, Da'Quan Bowers, who would've been if the medical people weren't convinced his knee ligaments are about as stable as ramen noodles.
On offense they've got Blount, a great young, athletic line in front of him, a pair of big, mobile tight ends in Kellen Winslow Jr. and rookie Luke Stocker, a top-shelf 3rd-down back in Earnest Graham and of course, QB Josh Freeman, who's the closest thing the NFC has to Ben Roethlisberger, without all the off-field unpleasantness. Freeman isn't Michael Vick, but he can take off and run it when need be, and as Goldson pointed out, he delights in lowering his shoulder into defensive backs instead of sliding like quarterbacks are taught. He also has a pesky habit of saving his best for the fourth quarter.
In short, the Buccaneers, who've dubbed themselves "The West Coast Killers" for their success at Arizona and San Francisco last season, are precisely the kind of team that Harbaugh would love to coach, right down to their backup QB Josh Johnson, who played for him at the University of San Diego and whom he's quite fond of. There are scores of reasons to pick them to win.
However, I'm going with the home side. They've got Harbaugh, they've got Utah, and a couple of talented kids in the backfield in rookies Kendall Hunter and Bruce Miller that the Bucs didn't have to face last time. I think the flight out will sap Tampa Bay just a bit, as will having a short week to prepare for the Niners because they played on Monday night. The 49ers are nobody's idea of a "scheduled loss," but the scales do tip in their favor.
If they wind up winning this one, the ushers might as well hand out "2011 NFC West Champion" T-shirts in the stands. Who'd mind that?
Nooooo-body.
Week 5 Picks...
Philadelphia at Buffalo (+3): The Eagles are a desperate team and going on the road is probably the best thing for them right now after two home disappointments have turned most of their rabid fanbase against them. The defense figures to have problems stopping Fred Jackson and their pass rush takes a hit too without Trent Cole, but I don't see that Bills secondary or so-so pass rush bothering Vick and Co. too much either. Eagles 30, Bills 20 **TWO STAR SPECIAL**
Kansas City at Indianapolis (-3): Both of these teams have played better than their records would indicate the past two weeks. Even though the Colts are on a short week, I like 'em here against a Chiefs team that got destroyed the last time they went on the road against a dome team. I think they'll have some issues in pass protection against Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Colts 20, Chiefs 13
Arizona at Minnesota (-3): For two teams that are a combined 1-7, this is an oddly compelling game. On one hand, Larry Fitzgerald always plays well when he goes back to his home state (he was a Vikings ball boy). On the other, if Donovan McNabb has any pride at all, he'll play well against Kevin Kolb, who Andy Reid decided he was worse than when he shipped off from Philly to Washington. I'll give the tiebreaker there to the team who's at home, has the better pass rush and the better running back. Vikings 27, Cardinals 20
Seattle at New York Giants (-10): The last time Seattle visited the east coast, they got positively slaughtered by a Pittsburgh team that's had a whale of a time stopping anyone else they've played. Good enough for me. Besides, this is as hot as Eli Manning and the Giants are ever gonna get. Giants 31, Seahawks 10
Tennessee at Pittsburgh (-3): Mini-upset special, just to see how real this Titans team is. Their pass rush looks fearsome, and Ben Roethlisberger is a bit gimpy with a bad foot and he's playing behind a beat up line. The Steelers have also been having trouble stopping the run and Chris Johnson is starting to heat up. Also, I want to see if Matt Hasselbeck can keep up his hot streak. Titans 23, Steelers 20
New Orleans at Carolina (+7): With Cam Newton going absolutely insane, the Panthers at home seems like the obvious pick with the points. I'm going the other way. I think Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams will have a little something for the rookie and I happen to believe the Panthers defense, who are without their two best linebackers for the season, is terrible. If Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram can't run through them, then Drew Brees will simply pass over them. Saints 41, Panthers 24
Cincinnati at Jacksonville (-3): What an ugly game. I'm kind of surprised the Jaguars are favored, to be honest with you. I'll go with the team with the better defense, the slightly more experienced QB, and the better receivers. Bengals 20, Jaguars 13 **THREE STAR SPECIAL**
Oakland at Houston (-6): Both teams can run it, but I think the Texans can stop it better. Their defense has been excellent at home and they have a multi-pronged pass rush led by Mario Williams. I don't think they're gonna miss Andre Johnson too much this week. Texans 30, Raiders 20
Tampa Bay at San Francisco (-3): I've always liked the 49ers to win this game, even before the season started and I had them being a 7-9/8-8 second-place team. I think the Niners, coming off a two-game winning streak last season, badly underestimated the Bucs (their arrogant coaching staff was prone to doing that, unfortunately) and Tampa Bay took advantage of Troy Smith defensively. I think the Niners match up pretty well against these guys, even though their run defense will take a hit without Isaac Sopoaga. I see the offensive line having a good showing at home and the defense holding on for dear life. 49ers 24, Buccaneers 20.
San Diego at Denver (+4): The Broncos allowed 49 points at Green Bay and the fans are gonna riot soon if they don't see some reason for encouragement, either from the defense or in the form of Tim Tebow under center. Kyle Orton has a good thing going with receivers Eric Decker and Brandon Lloyd and I think they're gonna keep it close if not win outright against an underachieving Chargers squad. Chargers 29, Broncos 27
New York Jets at New England (-9): The Jets offense is in shambles, but they're playing one of the worst defenses in the league. The Patriots offense is a juggernaut, but the Jets are almost impossible to pass against. I'm gonna take the wimpy way out and feel very stupid about it midway through the second quarter when New England is up three touchdowns. Patriots 27, Jets 20
Green Bay at Atlanta (+6): I don't like the Packers here, I love them. I know it's stupid, juvenile stuff, but I think Aaron Rodgers was legitimately offended that Roddy White had the gall to suggest the Falcons were the better team last year and that the playoff win was some kind of fluke. Rodgers was in an ornery enough mood after Brett Favre's comments earlier in the week that he came into a stacked team and should've won a Super Bowl earlier. Packers 41, Falcons 20 **FIVE STAR SPECIAL **
Chicago at Detroit (-6): The last time the Lions played at home, they won by 45. I don't think they'll blow out the Bears, but Matthew Stafford and the gang will get off to a quicker start than they have been and Chicago's offense couldn't run away from them anyway. Lions 27, Bears 17 **FOUR STAR SPECIAL**
Last week's W-L: 11-5
Season W-L: 43-21
Week 3 Vs. Spread: 9-7
Season Vs. Spread: 26-36-2
Week 3 +/- Points (All games count as one point unless specified): +4
Season +/- Points: -18
Showing posts with label Anthony Davis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Anthony Davis. Show all posts
Friday, October 7, 2011
Monday, October 3, 2011
Dreamy Second Half For The Smiths; A Nightmare For The Eagles
Maybe the worm is starting to turn for the long downtrodden 49ers.
Looking at their remarkable rise-from-the-grave 24-23 at Lincoln Financial Field, there was about a dozen ways the Eagles should’ve scored far more than 23 points. After all, the way Philadelphia moved the ball between the 20-yard-lines all afternoon was so effortless, so breathtakingly easy, awe-inspiring and frightening all at once. You watch it and it’s impossible not to notice that team just has a whole other phylum of athletes at the skill positions.
The thought occurs that perhaps those Miami Heat comparisons were apt. That team was just unstoppable and devastating on the fast break. Every turnover was an automatic transition dunk. But when they were forced to play in the half court, they got bogged down…
Well, think of the red zone as the Eagles’ half court, and the comparisons fit well. By my count the Eagles were in position to score at least a field goal in nine of their 12 possessions. They finished with two touchdowns, three field goals, two missed field goals and two fumbles.
Compare and contrast that to the 49ers, who had six scoring opportunities, and that’s counting two 40+ yard field goals that were certainly no gimmes (and they wound up being missed and blocked). The Niners cashed in with three touchdowns and a field goal on the other four.
That, to me, is the story of the game – That the 49ers were the tougher, both physically and mentally, in money territory, and whole heck of a lot smarter. You look at the box score and you see they had no business winning the game. But at least they were going to make the Eagles beat them instead of beating themselves. Or maybe just stick around in the game long enough to wait for the Eagles to shoot themselves in the foot.
Whatever, they’ll gladly take it. The Niners won road games on back-to-back weeks for the first time in a decade (Nov. 18 at Carolina and Nov. 25 at Indianapolis, in the 2001 season) and it also happened to be their last pair of consecutive wins during 10 a.m. PST starts as well. Usually this team has been absolute dog meat during those early starts. Remember the Kansas City game last year? Or the Green Bay one? I’d say that decision by Jim Harbaugh to spend the week in Youngstown, Ohio between these two games worked pretty well, and lord knows I didn’t miss the Santa Clara commute.
In producing their biggest comeback win since Oct. 20, 1996 against the Cincinnati Bengals, where the 49ers rallied from a 21-0 deficit to win 28-21 (in a game where the hero was the immortal Ted Popson with eight receptions for 116 yards and two touchdowns), the 49ers got clutch second-half performances from their three most prominent Smiths as well as some standout performances from Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter, Michael Crabtree, Joshua Morgan, Vernon Davis, Joe Staley, Mike Iupati, NaVorro Bowman and Ray McDonald.
Turnover differential has been a running theme for them on this young season, and again the 49ers won that battle, collecting three Eagles miscues while surrendering the ball just once themselves. None of their takeaways led to points, but they all prevented the Eagles from scoring.
As a result of this momentous win, the 49ers own a two game lead on everyone in their division; a claim no other team can make. Also, while the Niners are home next week (albeit against a tough Tampa Bay squad), their division foes all travel on the road. The 0-4 Rams are visiting the 4-0 defending champ Green Bay Packers, so that’s 0-5 right there. Seattle will fly cross country to take on the suddenly hot (and lucky as hell) 3-1 New York Giants. Arizona goes to 0-4 Minnesota, but that still looks like a toss-up game to me, with that Vikings pass rush on the turf.
You can’t exactly say that “NOOOOH-BODY” has it better than the 49ers, but there aren’t many teams in a better spot right now.
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Offensively, Alex Smith had a first half similar to the one the week before against Cincinnati. There were a few first downs, a couple of forays into enemy territory, but ultimately not much of anything on the scoreboard and a whole lot of frustration. As has been the case for darn near a calendar year now, he made a point of not throwing it to the other guys, but was just inaccurate and flustered enough – a high throw to Crabtree here, a low one behind Davis there – to fizzle drives.
The marked differences between today and the Bengals game – pretty much the only reasons to have a speck of hope in the second half – were that Smith and Crabtree were able to establish a connection early enough in the game to make you think there was a spark there, and, more importantly, the Niners were able to run the ball a little bit with Gore and Hunter.
Finally, in the third quarter the dam burst and everything came together for Smith and the fellas in successive, quick touchdown drives.
The first was set up by an improvised play where Smith was rushed to his right and found an uncovered Hunter at the line of scrimmage who scooted for 44 yards. A couple plays later Smith caught the Eagles in a safety blitz and hit Morgan on a slant for an easy 30-yard catch-and-run. Morgan spoke frequently in training camp about watching tapes of the 49ers West Coast Offense of the 80’s with Joe Montana throwing 5-yard slants to Jerry Rice and John Taylor for 80-yard touchdowns, and that’s exactly the kind of play that had him so excited about being in this offense.
The meat of the second score came on a long Smith pass to Crabtree where he toasted much-hyped Eagles free agent signee Nnamdi Asomugha for a 38-yard gain. Three plays later he found Davis in a mismatch with linebacker Jamar Chaney for a 9-yard touchdown to make it 23-17. Smith finished the third quarter a Tom Bradyesque 9-for-9 for 178 yards, two TD passes and a perfect 158.3 QB rating.
The fourth quarter was oddly anticlimactic for Smith, in a way. After a missed 39-yard field goal by Eagles rookie Alex Henery gave the 49ers their first chance to take the lead, they weren’t able to capitalize. Smith took a sack on third down when right tackle Anthony Davis inexplicably decided to double team Cullen Jenkins instead of worrying about left end Jason Babin, who had already beaten him for two sacks. Babin had a free run at Smith, who saw him in time to secure the ball at least before absorbing the blow. On the sidelines Smith had a look on his face like he knew they blew a golden opportunity and the game was lost.
However, fate was kind to them and once more Henery missed a kick – this one a 33-yarder. On the ensuing game-winning drive Smith completed 3-of-4 passes for just 13 yards while Gore and Hunter did the majority of the work. Harbaugh called a risky toss play to Hunter on 3rd-and-7 from the Philadelphia 26-yard-line that worked beautifully. If that play was stuffed you better believe he’d be ripped the next day – deservedly so – for not having more faith in Smith. Gore scored on the next play on a tough inside run from 12-yards out to give the 49ers the lead they would not relinquish.
Gore was questionable to even play in the game after injuring his ankle the week before and not being able to practice much of the week and didn’t even start against the Eagles. Yet he had runs of 40 and 25 yards in addition to his 12-yard touchdown and finished the game with 15 carries for 127 yards. He came into the game with just 148 yards on 59 carries – a 2.5 yards-per-carry average (he’s boosted it up to a respectable 3.7 now).
The left side of the offensive line – Staley and Iupati – deserve a ton of credit, as they were monsters all game. Not only did they neutralize Trent Cole and keep Smith’s backside clean, but they were dominant in opening up all kinds of holes for the backs. Staley was a force on those sweep and toss plays, and Iupati was nimble and powerful in pulling and trapping on inside runs to the right. Also, Harbaugh deserves a ton of credit for seeing that it just wasn’t working with Chilo Rachal and benching him for this game in favor of Adam Snyder, who played quite well. Heck, even Davis, who was a disaster in pass protection with those three sacks allowed and two tripping penalties, did a credible job in the run game against the soft, undersized, and far too pliant Eagles front.
Defensively, I can’t be quite as generous with the plaudits. These guys struggle against quality QBs. Who doesn’t in today’s NFL?
Justin Smith had the clutch play at the end, forcing the fumble from Eagles receiver Jeremy Maclin when he was already scooting forward into field goal range. Dashon Goldson was Johnny on the spot to scoop up the fumble before sliding out of bounds. Yet, even though nobody played a truly outstanding game – I’d say Bowman came the closest – just about everybody had their moment or two in the sun.
Eagles coach Andy Reid had a considerable role in this disaster of a game for Philly, but he saw quickly that the Niners planned to take LeSean McCoy away come hell or highwate and adjusted his plan to have Vick throw early and often. Like I said, it looked beautiful and easy in between the 20’s.
• In addition to his forced fumble, Justin Smith chased Vick around a handful of times and pressured him into some hurried throws. He also brushed hands with Smith early in the game, causing Vick to dislocate a finger in his throwing hand.
• Rookie Aldon Smith had the first 1.5 sacks of his career, hit Vick three times and was generally the team’s most consistent pass rusher and just missed a couple more sacks. A game like this will get him more playing time.
• Ahmad Brooks had a couple of his usual bonehead offsides penalties, but he was also relentless in pressuring Vick and got a few licks in.
• Ray McDonald got in on a sack with Aldon Smith, missed another sack on the play that wound up being a touchdown pass in the first quarter and got a couple hits on Vick.
• Isaac Sopoaga didn’t have much to do since the Eagles never ran, but he got to block some on offense in the full house backfield.
• NaVorro Bowman made at least three plays in this game that Takeo Spikes wouldn’t have had a prayer of making. He tackled Vick and McCoy in the open field on a pair of third down plays and bothered Vick on a few well-timed blitzes in the red zone. I mean this sincerely: He’s been the 49ers best player this season and he’s playing as well as any inside linebacker in the NFL right now.
• Dashon Goldson led the team with 10 tackles and really popped a couple of people. He had that big fumble recovery and he wasn’t responsible for any of those long ones to DeSean Jackson from what I saw.
• Carlos Rogers has a rep as a finesse corner, but he was used a number of times on corner blitzes and forced Vick into a few bad plays. He also picked him off on an early bomb attempt to Jackson, giving him interceptions in successive games. He was toasted in zone coverage a few times, but I’m not sure how much of it was him. The Niners were doing some screwy things back there.
• Tarell Brown shouldn’t be starting anymore. People are going right at him every game. The best thing I can say about his game is he dove at Jackson’s feet in the third quarter to hold him to “only” a 61-yard gain instead of a 86-yard touchdown. Who knew at the time it would lead to a missed field goal attempt by the Eagles?
• Chris Culliver got extensive playing time as a fourth corner in place of Tramaine Brock, and wasn’t too bad. He was in four tackles, so the Eagles went his way quite a bit, but they were short completions.
• I think Reggie Smith might have been the worst 49er in this game. Yup, even worse than Anthony Davis. They need Donte Whitner to get healthy. The defense still hasn’t played a game with Whitner and Goldson together.
Looking at their remarkable rise-from-the-grave 24-23 at Lincoln Financial Field, there was about a dozen ways the Eagles should’ve scored far more than 23 points. After all, the way Philadelphia moved the ball between the 20-yard-lines all afternoon was so effortless, so breathtakingly easy, awe-inspiring and frightening all at once. You watch it and it’s impossible not to notice that team just has a whole other phylum of athletes at the skill positions.
The thought occurs that perhaps those Miami Heat comparisons were apt. That team was just unstoppable and devastating on the fast break. Every turnover was an automatic transition dunk. But when they were forced to play in the half court, they got bogged down…
Well, think of the red zone as the Eagles’ half court, and the comparisons fit well. By my count the Eagles were in position to score at least a field goal in nine of their 12 possessions. They finished with two touchdowns, three field goals, two missed field goals and two fumbles.
Compare and contrast that to the 49ers, who had six scoring opportunities, and that’s counting two 40+ yard field goals that were certainly no gimmes (and they wound up being missed and blocked). The Niners cashed in with three touchdowns and a field goal on the other four.
That, to me, is the story of the game – That the 49ers were the tougher, both physically and mentally, in money territory, and whole heck of a lot smarter. You look at the box score and you see they had no business winning the game. But at least they were going to make the Eagles beat them instead of beating themselves. Or maybe just stick around in the game long enough to wait for the Eagles to shoot themselves in the foot.
Whatever, they’ll gladly take it. The Niners won road games on back-to-back weeks for the first time in a decade (Nov. 18 at Carolina and Nov. 25 at Indianapolis, in the 2001 season) and it also happened to be their last pair of consecutive wins during 10 a.m. PST starts as well. Usually this team has been absolute dog meat during those early starts. Remember the Kansas City game last year? Or the Green Bay one? I’d say that decision by Jim Harbaugh to spend the week in Youngstown, Ohio between these two games worked pretty well, and lord knows I didn’t miss the Santa Clara commute.
In producing their biggest comeback win since Oct. 20, 1996 against the Cincinnati Bengals, where the 49ers rallied from a 21-0 deficit to win 28-21 (in a game where the hero was the immortal Ted Popson with eight receptions for 116 yards and two touchdowns), the 49ers got clutch second-half performances from their three most prominent Smiths as well as some standout performances from Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter, Michael Crabtree, Joshua Morgan, Vernon Davis, Joe Staley, Mike Iupati, NaVorro Bowman and Ray McDonald.
Turnover differential has been a running theme for them on this young season, and again the 49ers won that battle, collecting three Eagles miscues while surrendering the ball just once themselves. None of their takeaways led to points, but they all prevented the Eagles from scoring.
As a result of this momentous win, the 49ers own a two game lead on everyone in their division; a claim no other team can make. Also, while the Niners are home next week (albeit against a tough Tampa Bay squad), their division foes all travel on the road. The 0-4 Rams are visiting the 4-0 defending champ Green Bay Packers, so that’s 0-5 right there. Seattle will fly cross country to take on the suddenly hot (and lucky as hell) 3-1 New York Giants. Arizona goes to 0-4 Minnesota, but that still looks like a toss-up game to me, with that Vikings pass rush on the turf.
You can’t exactly say that “NOOOOH-BODY” has it better than the 49ers, but there aren’t many teams in a better spot right now.
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Offensively, Alex Smith had a first half similar to the one the week before against Cincinnati. There were a few first downs, a couple of forays into enemy territory, but ultimately not much of anything on the scoreboard and a whole lot of frustration. As has been the case for darn near a calendar year now, he made a point of not throwing it to the other guys, but was just inaccurate and flustered enough – a high throw to Crabtree here, a low one behind Davis there – to fizzle drives.
The marked differences between today and the Bengals game – pretty much the only reasons to have a speck of hope in the second half – were that Smith and Crabtree were able to establish a connection early enough in the game to make you think there was a spark there, and, more importantly, the Niners were able to run the ball a little bit with Gore and Hunter.
Finally, in the third quarter the dam burst and everything came together for Smith and the fellas in successive, quick touchdown drives.
The first was set up by an improvised play where Smith was rushed to his right and found an uncovered Hunter at the line of scrimmage who scooted for 44 yards. A couple plays later Smith caught the Eagles in a safety blitz and hit Morgan on a slant for an easy 30-yard catch-and-run. Morgan spoke frequently in training camp about watching tapes of the 49ers West Coast Offense of the 80’s with Joe Montana throwing 5-yard slants to Jerry Rice and John Taylor for 80-yard touchdowns, and that’s exactly the kind of play that had him so excited about being in this offense.
The meat of the second score came on a long Smith pass to Crabtree where he toasted much-hyped Eagles free agent signee Nnamdi Asomugha for a 38-yard gain. Three plays later he found Davis in a mismatch with linebacker Jamar Chaney for a 9-yard touchdown to make it 23-17. Smith finished the third quarter a Tom Bradyesque 9-for-9 for 178 yards, two TD passes and a perfect 158.3 QB rating.
The fourth quarter was oddly anticlimactic for Smith, in a way. After a missed 39-yard field goal by Eagles rookie Alex Henery gave the 49ers their first chance to take the lead, they weren’t able to capitalize. Smith took a sack on third down when right tackle Anthony Davis inexplicably decided to double team Cullen Jenkins instead of worrying about left end Jason Babin, who had already beaten him for two sacks. Babin had a free run at Smith, who saw him in time to secure the ball at least before absorbing the blow. On the sidelines Smith had a look on his face like he knew they blew a golden opportunity and the game was lost.
However, fate was kind to them and once more Henery missed a kick – this one a 33-yarder. On the ensuing game-winning drive Smith completed 3-of-4 passes for just 13 yards while Gore and Hunter did the majority of the work. Harbaugh called a risky toss play to Hunter on 3rd-and-7 from the Philadelphia 26-yard-line that worked beautifully. If that play was stuffed you better believe he’d be ripped the next day – deservedly so – for not having more faith in Smith. Gore scored on the next play on a tough inside run from 12-yards out to give the 49ers the lead they would not relinquish.
Gore was questionable to even play in the game after injuring his ankle the week before and not being able to practice much of the week and didn’t even start against the Eagles. Yet he had runs of 40 and 25 yards in addition to his 12-yard touchdown and finished the game with 15 carries for 127 yards. He came into the game with just 148 yards on 59 carries – a 2.5 yards-per-carry average (he’s boosted it up to a respectable 3.7 now).
The left side of the offensive line – Staley and Iupati – deserve a ton of credit, as they were monsters all game. Not only did they neutralize Trent Cole and keep Smith’s backside clean, but they were dominant in opening up all kinds of holes for the backs. Staley was a force on those sweep and toss plays, and Iupati was nimble and powerful in pulling and trapping on inside runs to the right. Also, Harbaugh deserves a ton of credit for seeing that it just wasn’t working with Chilo Rachal and benching him for this game in favor of Adam Snyder, who played quite well. Heck, even Davis, who was a disaster in pass protection with those three sacks allowed and two tripping penalties, did a credible job in the run game against the soft, undersized, and far too pliant Eagles front.
Defensively, I can’t be quite as generous with the plaudits. These guys struggle against quality QBs. Who doesn’t in today’s NFL?
Justin Smith had the clutch play at the end, forcing the fumble from Eagles receiver Jeremy Maclin when he was already scooting forward into field goal range. Dashon Goldson was Johnny on the spot to scoop up the fumble before sliding out of bounds. Yet, even though nobody played a truly outstanding game – I’d say Bowman came the closest – just about everybody had their moment or two in the sun.
Eagles coach Andy Reid had a considerable role in this disaster of a game for Philly, but he saw quickly that the Niners planned to take LeSean McCoy away come hell or highwate and adjusted his plan to have Vick throw early and often. Like I said, it looked beautiful and easy in between the 20’s.
• In addition to his forced fumble, Justin Smith chased Vick around a handful of times and pressured him into some hurried throws. He also brushed hands with Smith early in the game, causing Vick to dislocate a finger in his throwing hand.
• Rookie Aldon Smith had the first 1.5 sacks of his career, hit Vick three times and was generally the team’s most consistent pass rusher and just missed a couple more sacks. A game like this will get him more playing time.
• Ahmad Brooks had a couple of his usual bonehead offsides penalties, but he was also relentless in pressuring Vick and got a few licks in.
• Ray McDonald got in on a sack with Aldon Smith, missed another sack on the play that wound up being a touchdown pass in the first quarter and got a couple hits on Vick.
• Isaac Sopoaga didn’t have much to do since the Eagles never ran, but he got to block some on offense in the full house backfield.
• NaVorro Bowman made at least three plays in this game that Takeo Spikes wouldn’t have had a prayer of making. He tackled Vick and McCoy in the open field on a pair of third down plays and bothered Vick on a few well-timed blitzes in the red zone. I mean this sincerely: He’s been the 49ers best player this season and he’s playing as well as any inside linebacker in the NFL right now.
• Dashon Goldson led the team with 10 tackles and really popped a couple of people. He had that big fumble recovery and he wasn’t responsible for any of those long ones to DeSean Jackson from what I saw.
• Carlos Rogers has a rep as a finesse corner, but he was used a number of times on corner blitzes and forced Vick into a few bad plays. He also picked him off on an early bomb attempt to Jackson, giving him interceptions in successive games. He was toasted in zone coverage a few times, but I’m not sure how much of it was him. The Niners were doing some screwy things back there.
• Tarell Brown shouldn’t be starting anymore. People are going right at him every game. The best thing I can say about his game is he dove at Jackson’s feet in the third quarter to hold him to “only” a 61-yard gain instead of a 86-yard touchdown. Who knew at the time it would lead to a missed field goal attempt by the Eagles?
• Chris Culliver got extensive playing time as a fourth corner in place of Tramaine Brock, and wasn’t too bad. He was in four tackles, so the Eagles went his way quite a bit, but they were short completions.
• I think Reggie Smith might have been the worst 49er in this game. Yup, even worse than Anthony Davis. They need Donte Whitner to get healthy. The defense still hasn’t played a game with Whitner and Goldson together.
Friday, September 30, 2011
Dr. Harbaugh needs new, patient, Smith past Eagles in one piece; Week 4 picks
"First do no harm."
That's the Hippocratic Oath, which all Pre-Meds are taught on the first day of school. For San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh, who was hired to heal an offense that had been read its last rites, it has largely been his approach with dead-man-walking QB Alex Smith. He wanted to repair and rebuild his passer's shattered confidence and bruised psyche. He wanted to protect him from the slings and arrows, both on and off the field. The idea has been to keep the throws safe, the attempts few and the expectations manageable.
Smith has rewarded Harbaugh's faith by generally being smart and accurate and playing at least one half of good football in all three games so far to produce a 91.3 passer rating and, more importantly, a 2-1 record. However, to be fair to him, he was already on the road to enlightenment well before Harbaugh got here. Since an Oct. 17 game against the crosstown Raiders, Smith has combined to throw for 10 touchdowns and only two picks over nine starts, and his 0.9 interception percentage is the lowest for any NFL quarterback. He's not slinging it 50 times a game and throwing it for 400 yards, but Smith has accepted his own limitations and taken his own oath to first do no harm.
That's all well and good as far as the scoreboard and Smith's own psychological demons are concerned, but now comes the time for both he and Harbaugh to apply the Hippocratic Oath to the quarterback's physical body, which has already taken an absolute pounding.
It's ironic that all the talk coming into this game has been about Michael Vick's injuries, the abuse he's taken and how negligent the referees have been in protecting him. Harbaugh even played doctor as a joke, and opined that the Eagles should sit the electric playmaker for a week. Smith, meanwhile, is the one who has endured 11 sacks over the last two weeks, who suffered a concussion in Week 2 the same as Vick did and who survived former teammate Nate Clements launching himself into his helmet during a 13-8 win at Cincinnati. Smith has survived all the blows without missing a snap and hasn't uttered a peep about needing more protection from the referees or his own linemen.
What Smith needs now though is to be protected. Not from us evil media, and not from his error prone nature but from his coach using him as a crash test dummy. Through the first three games we've seen Harbaugh use him as a lead blocker, on rollouts at the end zone with no blockers to help him and on college style option plays. Harbuagh has had him passing with max protection schemes where only one or two receivers have gone out on the pattern, and the only good those extra blockers have done is to ensure that Smith will have to eat the football when his limited options are double-teamed.
The game against the Eagles, who are second in the league with 12 sacks, represents a bevy of nightmarish match-ups for the 49ers. Joe Staley, who has been more matador than left tackle against opposing bull-rushers, gets Trent Cole, a two-time Pro Bowler with 60 career sacks. Anthony Davis, who's been prone to getting beat off the ball by speed rushers, particularly on the road, faces Jason Babin, who already has four sacks and lines up as wide as possible in the Eagles funky defensive alignment. Most disconcerting of all, right guard Chilo Rachal, who was benched last week for wretched play and will be on a short leash on Sunday, gets defensive tackle Cullen Jenkins, who has generated more inside pressure this season than anyone besides Ndamukong Suh.
This is what the kids would call an uh-to-the-oh situation.
On the other side of the ball the 49ers are still at a speed disadvantage against Vick, running back LeSean McCoy (the team's best player by far); and receivers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, but not to the extent they have been in past seasons. The linebacking corps is far more athletic with youngsters NaVorro Bowman, Ahmad Brooks and Aldon Smith, and corner Carlos Rogers can keep up with the smurfs far better than Clements could. Strong safety Donte Whitner's hip is bothering him, but that shouldn't be as much of an issue this week since tight end Brent Celek has been all but eliminated from the Eagles offense.
Sure, the Eagles should still be good for three or four touchdowns on Sunday if Vick plays the whole game, but he hasn't been able to finish either of the past two games and has been very charitable with the football. The possibility exists that the 49ers could get a cheap score or two.
Harbuagh will want to keep the ball away from the Eagles offense. He'll want long, time-consuming drives that keep Vick and Co. on the sidelines. If ever the 49ers will get their 30th-ranked running game untracked, it will be against the Eagles, who are coincidentally ranked 30th themselves against the run. He'll want to line up as many of his elephants in there as he can to trample Philadelphia's smallish front seven.
It won't work.
No matter how many blockers the 49ers put out there, the defense can jam one more than they can account for in the box. Also, the more big uglies you have, the better chance one of them will whiff on a block, will commit a hold, will jump early or otherwise blow his assignment.
The solution isn't more blockers, it's less. Stretch the Eagles out with three and four receivers and run quick hitters up the gut against Philadelphia's soft underbelly. Give the ball to Kendall Hunter on draws and use the Philly's over-aggressiveness against them. Give Smith as many options in the pass game as possible so he can diagnose where the mismatch is and get the ball out quickly to Vernon Davis or Michael Crabtree. This is not the kind of game where he's going to find guys open deep, so the goal should be to get the ball out of his hands as quick as possible.
With two wins in their back pocket already, the 49ers don't have to gamble too much against a desperate, more talented opponent. The main goal should be keeping Smith healthy, with anything more than that considered gravy. Just get him out of there in one piece and give the offensive line a chance to catch its breath and regroup. A loss the team can survive. An extended absence from Smith they cannot.
First do no harm.
****************************************************************************
Week 4 Picks:
San Francisco at Philadelphia (-9): Obviously the line is based on Michael Vick's availability. I think the 49ers have more speed on defense than they've had in the past, particularly at linebacker and safety, but that the Eagles will still be good for 27 or so if Vick plays the full 60. I can't see the offense, with all its limitations, getting to 17 without turnovers really coming into play. Eagles 27, 49ers 16.
Detroit at Dallas (-1): The Cowboys are still awfully gimpy at receiver and corner and the Lions are the wrong team to be having issues with along the interior of the offensive line with Ndamukong Suh coming to town. This should be a fun one. Lions 27, Cowboys 24.
Carolina at Chicago (-7): Vegas seems to think the Bears defense will force at least three turnovers out of Cam Newton because I don't know how they expect the Bears to outscore anyone by a touchdown. Look for an inspired performance out of tight end Greg Olsen who will be looking to show Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz that tight ends do matter. An upset special. Panthers 23, Bears 17.
Buffalo at Cincinnati (+3): The Bengals defense has been very respectable thus far through three weeks, save for the occasional flub from corner Nate Clements, but now they get a real test with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson and the rest of the high-flying Bills. After their triumph against the Patriots it would only be natural for Buffalo to completely look past Cincinnati right? The good thing for them is that they don't show up until the second half anyway, so nothing will change. Bills 24, Bengals 16. **FOUR STAR SPECIAL**
Tennessee at Cleveland (-1): The Browns are a one point favorite, but for the life of me I can't fathom why. The Titans are just playing so much better than them, Kenny Britt or no Kenny Britt. I'm expecting Colt McCoy to get rag-dolled quite a bit in this one. Titans 23, Browns 13.
Minnesota at Kansas City (+2): Not very often a winless team through three weeks is a favorite on the road, but here we are. It's true that the Vikings have been one of the best teams in the NFL in the first halves and the absolute rotten worst in the second halves, but I simply can't see Jason Allen walking off the field a loser in this one. His departure from the Chiefs was anything but friendly, and he's going to be looking to tear Matt Cassel's head off out there. Vikings 26, Chiefs 13.
Washington at St. Louis (even): I don't have a line for this one, presumably because of concerns about Rams RB Steven Jackson. This looks like a drab match-up but is secretly the most important game on the sked. The Rams can't afford to fall too far behind the division leaders, even in the NFC West and the Redskins need to bounce back from their late nosedive at Dallas to show they're not the same old also-rans in the NFC East. I think the short week and the travel will get them. Rams 20, Redskins 17.
New Orleans at Jacksonville (+8): A rookie quarterback making his second career start against the Saints and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams? Where do I sign up? Games like this actually tempt me to bet real money. Saints 30, Jaguars 13 **FIVE STAR SPECIAL**
Pittsburgh at Houston (-4): Another fun game pitting two defenses bent on insisting they're a lot better than they actually are. The Texans still don't know when the healthy Arian Foster is going to show up. The Steelers don't know who the heck will play tackle. I don't know if I'll be able to deal with all the singing Steelers fans at the sports bar. Hopefully they won't be singing at the end. Texans 34, Steelers 27.
NY Giants at Arizona (+1): Eli Manning is coming off a great game, even with no-name receivers, and the Cards scored just 10 points at Seattle. Pressure is mounting on Kevin Kolb to show he's a franchise QB, or it would be if Arizona had any fans. (Hey-O.) I'm gonna go with the team I know has a running game I can trust and some pass rushers. Giants 27, Cardinals 20 **THREE STAR SPECIAL**
Atlanta at Seattle (+6): No, this will not be one of games I catch up on later. The Falcons don't have much rhythm on offense and Matt Ryan has been getting knocked around, but they're not gonna have to score much to get past the low-watt Seahawks. Falcons 23, Seahawks 13. **TWO STAR SPECIAL**
Denver at Green Bay (-13): The line surprises me. The Packers in recent years just haven't taken games like this very seriously, and Kyle Orton can put up some garbage time points throwing it to Brandon Lloyd and Eric Decker. Packers 34, Broncos 24.
New England at Oakland (+5): My heart says Raiders, my head says Patriots. I can't see New England losing two in a row. Maybe if the Raiders were more of a passing team instead of a running team, but they aren't. Bill Belichick is gonna make Jason Campbell try to match points with Tom Brady, and he's not up to it.
Patriots 38, Raiders 24.
Miami at San Diego (-9): No Antonio Gates for the Chargers and the Dolphins for some bizarre reason are way better on the road than at home. The Chargers pass rush has been lackluster and San Diego has given off some bad vibes so far, where even Philip Rivers has been uncharacteristically sloppy. Chargers 24, Dolphins 17.
NY Jets at Baltimore (-4): What a game. For my money these are the two most complete teams in the AFC. I'm curious whether the Jets will use Darrelle Revis on Anquan Boldin or rookie Torrey Smith, who demolished the Rams last week. Rex Ryan will worry the most about taking away Ray Rice after how badly Oakland's Darren McFadden gashed them. The Jets have to forget about trying to get Shonn Greene going and go right at Baltimore's corners. I'll take the Jets and the points. Ravens 20, Jets 17.
Indianapolis at Tampa Bay (-10): What a dog game. Curtis Painter against a rabid Buccaneers defense. I'm still waiting for Josh Freeman to get untracked and this is the week it's gonna happen. The Colts gave it everything they had last week against Pittsburgh and it still wasn't enough. I think this is the week they quit. Buccaneers 27, Colts 10.
Last week's W-L: 13-3
Season W-L: 32-16
Week 3 Vs. Spread: 9-7
Season Vs. Spread: 17-29-2
Week 3 +/- Points (All games count as one point unless specified): +8
Season +/- Points: -22
That's the Hippocratic Oath, which all Pre-Meds are taught on the first day of school. For San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh, who was hired to heal an offense that had been read its last rites, it has largely been his approach with dead-man-walking QB Alex Smith. He wanted to repair and rebuild his passer's shattered confidence and bruised psyche. He wanted to protect him from the slings and arrows, both on and off the field. The idea has been to keep the throws safe, the attempts few and the expectations manageable.
Smith has rewarded Harbaugh's faith by generally being smart and accurate and playing at least one half of good football in all three games so far to produce a 91.3 passer rating and, more importantly, a 2-1 record. However, to be fair to him, he was already on the road to enlightenment well before Harbaugh got here. Since an Oct. 17 game against the crosstown Raiders, Smith has combined to throw for 10 touchdowns and only two picks over nine starts, and his 0.9 interception percentage is the lowest for any NFL quarterback. He's not slinging it 50 times a game and throwing it for 400 yards, but Smith has accepted his own limitations and taken his own oath to first do no harm.
That's all well and good as far as the scoreboard and Smith's own psychological demons are concerned, but now comes the time for both he and Harbaugh to apply the Hippocratic Oath to the quarterback's physical body, which has already taken an absolute pounding.
It's ironic that all the talk coming into this game has been about Michael Vick's injuries, the abuse he's taken and how negligent the referees have been in protecting him. Harbaugh even played doctor as a joke, and opined that the Eagles should sit the electric playmaker for a week. Smith, meanwhile, is the one who has endured 11 sacks over the last two weeks, who suffered a concussion in Week 2 the same as Vick did and who survived former teammate Nate Clements launching himself into his helmet during a 13-8 win at Cincinnati. Smith has survived all the blows without missing a snap and hasn't uttered a peep about needing more protection from the referees or his own linemen.
What Smith needs now though is to be protected. Not from us evil media, and not from his error prone nature but from his coach using him as a crash test dummy. Through the first three games we've seen Harbaugh use him as a lead blocker, on rollouts at the end zone with no blockers to help him and on college style option plays. Harbuagh has had him passing with max protection schemes where only one or two receivers have gone out on the pattern, and the only good those extra blockers have done is to ensure that Smith will have to eat the football when his limited options are double-teamed.
The game against the Eagles, who are second in the league with 12 sacks, represents a bevy of nightmarish match-ups for the 49ers. Joe Staley, who has been more matador than left tackle against opposing bull-rushers, gets Trent Cole, a two-time Pro Bowler with 60 career sacks. Anthony Davis, who's been prone to getting beat off the ball by speed rushers, particularly on the road, faces Jason Babin, who already has four sacks and lines up as wide as possible in the Eagles funky defensive alignment. Most disconcerting of all, right guard Chilo Rachal, who was benched last week for wretched play and will be on a short leash on Sunday, gets defensive tackle Cullen Jenkins, who has generated more inside pressure this season than anyone besides Ndamukong Suh.
This is what the kids would call an uh-to-the-oh situation.
On the other side of the ball the 49ers are still at a speed disadvantage against Vick, running back LeSean McCoy (the team's best player by far); and receivers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, but not to the extent they have been in past seasons. The linebacking corps is far more athletic with youngsters NaVorro Bowman, Ahmad Brooks and Aldon Smith, and corner Carlos Rogers can keep up with the smurfs far better than Clements could. Strong safety Donte Whitner's hip is bothering him, but that shouldn't be as much of an issue this week since tight end Brent Celek has been all but eliminated from the Eagles offense.
Sure, the Eagles should still be good for three or four touchdowns on Sunday if Vick plays the whole game, but he hasn't been able to finish either of the past two games and has been very charitable with the football. The possibility exists that the 49ers could get a cheap score or two.
Harbuagh will want to keep the ball away from the Eagles offense. He'll want long, time-consuming drives that keep Vick and Co. on the sidelines. If ever the 49ers will get their 30th-ranked running game untracked, it will be against the Eagles, who are coincidentally ranked 30th themselves against the run. He'll want to line up as many of his elephants in there as he can to trample Philadelphia's smallish front seven.
It won't work.
No matter how many blockers the 49ers put out there, the defense can jam one more than they can account for in the box. Also, the more big uglies you have, the better chance one of them will whiff on a block, will commit a hold, will jump early or otherwise blow his assignment.
The solution isn't more blockers, it's less. Stretch the Eagles out with three and four receivers and run quick hitters up the gut against Philadelphia's soft underbelly. Give the ball to Kendall Hunter on draws and use the Philly's over-aggressiveness against them. Give Smith as many options in the pass game as possible so he can diagnose where the mismatch is and get the ball out quickly to Vernon Davis or Michael Crabtree. This is not the kind of game where he's going to find guys open deep, so the goal should be to get the ball out of his hands as quick as possible.
With two wins in their back pocket already, the 49ers don't have to gamble too much against a desperate, more talented opponent. The main goal should be keeping Smith healthy, with anything more than that considered gravy. Just get him out of there in one piece and give the offensive line a chance to catch its breath and regroup. A loss the team can survive. An extended absence from Smith they cannot.
First do no harm.
****************************************************************************
Week 4 Picks:
San Francisco at Philadelphia (-9): Obviously the line is based on Michael Vick's availability. I think the 49ers have more speed on defense than they've had in the past, particularly at linebacker and safety, but that the Eagles will still be good for 27 or so if Vick plays the full 60. I can't see the offense, with all its limitations, getting to 17 without turnovers really coming into play. Eagles 27, 49ers 16.
Detroit at Dallas (-1): The Cowboys are still awfully gimpy at receiver and corner and the Lions are the wrong team to be having issues with along the interior of the offensive line with Ndamukong Suh coming to town. This should be a fun one. Lions 27, Cowboys 24.
Carolina at Chicago (-7): Vegas seems to think the Bears defense will force at least three turnovers out of Cam Newton because I don't know how they expect the Bears to outscore anyone by a touchdown. Look for an inspired performance out of tight end Greg Olsen who will be looking to show Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz that tight ends do matter. An upset special. Panthers 23, Bears 17.
Buffalo at Cincinnati (+3): The Bengals defense has been very respectable thus far through three weeks, save for the occasional flub from corner Nate Clements, but now they get a real test with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson and the rest of the high-flying Bills. After their triumph against the Patriots it would only be natural for Buffalo to completely look past Cincinnati right? The good thing for them is that they don't show up until the second half anyway, so nothing will change. Bills 24, Bengals 16. **FOUR STAR SPECIAL**
Tennessee at Cleveland (-1): The Browns are a one point favorite, but for the life of me I can't fathom why. The Titans are just playing so much better than them, Kenny Britt or no Kenny Britt. I'm expecting Colt McCoy to get rag-dolled quite a bit in this one. Titans 23, Browns 13.
Minnesota at Kansas City (+2): Not very often a winless team through three weeks is a favorite on the road, but here we are. It's true that the Vikings have been one of the best teams in the NFL in the first halves and the absolute rotten worst in the second halves, but I simply can't see Jason Allen walking off the field a loser in this one. His departure from the Chiefs was anything but friendly, and he's going to be looking to tear Matt Cassel's head off out there. Vikings 26, Chiefs 13.
Washington at St. Louis (even): I don't have a line for this one, presumably because of concerns about Rams RB Steven Jackson. This looks like a drab match-up but is secretly the most important game on the sked. The Rams can't afford to fall too far behind the division leaders, even in the NFC West and the Redskins need to bounce back from their late nosedive at Dallas to show they're not the same old also-rans in the NFC East. I think the short week and the travel will get them. Rams 20, Redskins 17.
New Orleans at Jacksonville (+8): A rookie quarterback making his second career start against the Saints and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams? Where do I sign up? Games like this actually tempt me to bet real money. Saints 30, Jaguars 13 **FIVE STAR SPECIAL**
Pittsburgh at Houston (-4): Another fun game pitting two defenses bent on insisting they're a lot better than they actually are. The Texans still don't know when the healthy Arian Foster is going to show up. The Steelers don't know who the heck will play tackle. I don't know if I'll be able to deal with all the singing Steelers fans at the sports bar. Hopefully they won't be singing at the end. Texans 34, Steelers 27.
NY Giants at Arizona (+1): Eli Manning is coming off a great game, even with no-name receivers, and the Cards scored just 10 points at Seattle. Pressure is mounting on Kevin Kolb to show he's a franchise QB, or it would be if Arizona had any fans. (Hey-O.) I'm gonna go with the team I know has a running game I can trust and some pass rushers. Giants 27, Cardinals 20 **THREE STAR SPECIAL**
Atlanta at Seattle (+6): No, this will not be one of games I catch up on later. The Falcons don't have much rhythm on offense and Matt Ryan has been getting knocked around, but they're not gonna have to score much to get past the low-watt Seahawks. Falcons 23, Seahawks 13. **TWO STAR SPECIAL**
Denver at Green Bay (-13): The line surprises me. The Packers in recent years just haven't taken games like this very seriously, and Kyle Orton can put up some garbage time points throwing it to Brandon Lloyd and Eric Decker. Packers 34, Broncos 24.
New England at Oakland (+5): My heart says Raiders, my head says Patriots. I can't see New England losing two in a row. Maybe if the Raiders were more of a passing team instead of a running team, but they aren't. Bill Belichick is gonna make Jason Campbell try to match points with Tom Brady, and he's not up to it.
Patriots 38, Raiders 24.
Miami at San Diego (-9): No Antonio Gates for the Chargers and the Dolphins for some bizarre reason are way better on the road than at home. The Chargers pass rush has been lackluster and San Diego has given off some bad vibes so far, where even Philip Rivers has been uncharacteristically sloppy. Chargers 24, Dolphins 17.
NY Jets at Baltimore (-4): What a game. For my money these are the two most complete teams in the AFC. I'm curious whether the Jets will use Darrelle Revis on Anquan Boldin or rookie Torrey Smith, who demolished the Rams last week. Rex Ryan will worry the most about taking away Ray Rice after how badly Oakland's Darren McFadden gashed them. The Jets have to forget about trying to get Shonn Greene going and go right at Baltimore's corners. I'll take the Jets and the points. Ravens 20, Jets 17.
Indianapolis at Tampa Bay (-10): What a dog game. Curtis Painter against a rabid Buccaneers defense. I'm still waiting for Josh Freeman to get untracked and this is the week it's gonna happen. The Colts gave it everything they had last week against Pittsburgh and it still wasn't enough. I think this is the week they quit. Buccaneers 27, Colts 10.
Last week's W-L: 13-3
Season W-L: 32-16
Week 3 Vs. Spread: 9-7
Season Vs. Spread: 17-29-2
Week 3 +/- Points (All games count as one point unless specified): +8
Season +/- Points: -22
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