"First do no harm."
That's the Hippocratic Oath, which all Pre-Meds are taught on the first day of school. For San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh, who was hired to heal an offense that had been read its last rites, it has largely been his approach with dead-man-walking QB Alex Smith. He wanted to repair and rebuild his passer's shattered confidence and bruised psyche. He wanted to protect him from the slings and arrows, both on and off the field. The idea has been to keep the throws safe, the attempts few and the expectations manageable.
Smith has rewarded Harbaugh's faith by generally being smart and accurate and playing at least one half of good football in all three games so far to produce a 91.3 passer rating and, more importantly, a 2-1 record. However, to be fair to him, he was already on the road to enlightenment well before Harbaugh got here. Since an Oct. 17 game against the crosstown Raiders, Smith has combined to throw for 10 touchdowns and only two picks over nine starts, and his 0.9 interception percentage is the lowest for any NFL quarterback. He's not slinging it 50 times a game and throwing it for 400 yards, but Smith has accepted his own limitations and taken his own oath to first do no harm.
That's all well and good as far as the scoreboard and Smith's own psychological demons are concerned, but now comes the time for both he and Harbaugh to apply the Hippocratic Oath to the quarterback's physical body, which has already taken an absolute pounding.
It's ironic that all the talk coming into this game has been about Michael Vick's injuries, the abuse he's taken and how negligent the referees have been in protecting him. Harbaugh even played doctor as a joke, and opined that the Eagles should sit the electric playmaker for a week. Smith, meanwhile, is the one who has endured 11 sacks over the last two weeks, who suffered a concussion in Week 2 the same as Vick did and who survived former teammate Nate Clements launching himself into his helmet during a 13-8 win at Cincinnati. Smith has survived all the blows without missing a snap and hasn't uttered a peep about needing more protection from the referees or his own linemen.
What Smith needs now though is to be protected. Not from us evil media, and not from his error prone nature but from his coach using him as a crash test dummy. Through the first three games we've seen Harbaugh use him as a lead blocker, on rollouts at the end zone with no blockers to help him and on college style option plays. Harbuagh has had him passing with max protection schemes where only one or two receivers have gone out on the pattern, and the only good those extra blockers have done is to ensure that Smith will have to eat the football when his limited options are double-teamed.
The game against the Eagles, who are second in the league with 12 sacks, represents a bevy of nightmarish match-ups for the 49ers. Joe Staley, who has been more matador than left tackle against opposing bull-rushers, gets Trent Cole, a two-time Pro Bowler with 60 career sacks. Anthony Davis, who's been prone to getting beat off the ball by speed rushers, particularly on the road, faces Jason Babin, who already has four sacks and lines up as wide as possible in the Eagles funky defensive alignment. Most disconcerting of all, right guard Chilo Rachal, who was benched last week for wretched play and will be on a short leash on Sunday, gets defensive tackle Cullen Jenkins, who has generated more inside pressure this season than anyone besides Ndamukong Suh.
This is what the kids would call an uh-to-the-oh situation.
On the other side of the ball the 49ers are still at a speed disadvantage against Vick, running back LeSean McCoy (the team's best player by far); and receivers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, but not to the extent they have been in past seasons. The linebacking corps is far more athletic with youngsters NaVorro Bowman, Ahmad Brooks and Aldon Smith, and corner Carlos Rogers can keep up with the smurfs far better than Clements could. Strong safety Donte Whitner's hip is bothering him, but that shouldn't be as much of an issue this week since tight end Brent Celek has been all but eliminated from the Eagles offense.
Sure, the Eagles should still be good for three or four touchdowns on Sunday if Vick plays the whole game, but he hasn't been able to finish either of the past two games and has been very charitable with the football. The possibility exists that the 49ers could get a cheap score or two.
Harbuagh will want to keep the ball away from the Eagles offense. He'll want long, time-consuming drives that keep Vick and Co. on the sidelines. If ever the 49ers will get their 30th-ranked running game untracked, it will be against the Eagles, who are coincidentally ranked 30th themselves against the run. He'll want to line up as many of his elephants in there as he can to trample Philadelphia's smallish front seven.
It won't work.
No matter how many blockers the 49ers put out there, the defense can jam one more than they can account for in the box. Also, the more big uglies you have, the better chance one of them will whiff on a block, will commit a hold, will jump early or otherwise blow his assignment.
The solution isn't more blockers, it's less. Stretch the Eagles out with three and four receivers and run quick hitters up the gut against Philadelphia's soft underbelly. Give the ball to Kendall Hunter on draws and use the Philly's over-aggressiveness against them. Give Smith as many options in the pass game as possible so he can diagnose where the mismatch is and get the ball out quickly to Vernon Davis or Michael Crabtree. This is not the kind of game where he's going to find guys open deep, so the goal should be to get the ball out of his hands as quick as possible.
With two wins in their back pocket already, the 49ers don't have to gamble too much against a desperate, more talented opponent. The main goal should be keeping Smith healthy, with anything more than that considered gravy. Just get him out of there in one piece and give the offensive line a chance to catch its breath and regroup. A loss the team can survive. An extended absence from Smith they cannot.
First do no harm.
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Week 4 Picks:
San Francisco at Philadelphia (-9): Obviously the line is based on Michael Vick's availability. I think the 49ers have more speed on defense than they've had in the past, particularly at linebacker and safety, but that the Eagles will still be good for 27 or so if Vick plays the full 60. I can't see the offense, with all its limitations, getting to 17 without turnovers really coming into play. Eagles 27, 49ers 16.
Detroit at Dallas (-1): The Cowboys are still awfully gimpy at receiver and corner and the Lions are the wrong team to be having issues with along the interior of the offensive line with Ndamukong Suh coming to town. This should be a fun one. Lions 27, Cowboys 24.
Carolina at Chicago (-7): Vegas seems to think the Bears defense will force at least three turnovers out of Cam Newton because I don't know how they expect the Bears to outscore anyone by a touchdown. Look for an inspired performance out of tight end Greg Olsen who will be looking to show Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz that tight ends do matter. An upset special. Panthers 23, Bears 17.
Buffalo at Cincinnati (+3): The Bengals defense has been very respectable thus far through three weeks, save for the occasional flub from corner Nate Clements, but now they get a real test with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson and the rest of the high-flying Bills. After their triumph against the Patriots it would only be natural for Buffalo to completely look past Cincinnati right? The good thing for them is that they don't show up until the second half anyway, so nothing will change. Bills 24, Bengals 16. **FOUR STAR SPECIAL**
Tennessee at Cleveland (-1): The Browns are a one point favorite, but for the life of me I can't fathom why. The Titans are just playing so much better than them, Kenny Britt or no Kenny Britt. I'm expecting Colt McCoy to get rag-dolled quite a bit in this one. Titans 23, Browns 13.
Minnesota at Kansas City (+2): Not very often a winless team through three weeks is a favorite on the road, but here we are. It's true that the Vikings have been one of the best teams in the NFL in the first halves and the absolute rotten worst in the second halves, but I simply can't see Jason Allen walking off the field a loser in this one. His departure from the Chiefs was anything but friendly, and he's going to be looking to tear Matt Cassel's head off out there. Vikings 26, Chiefs 13.
Washington at St. Louis (even): I don't have a line for this one, presumably because of concerns about Rams RB Steven Jackson. This looks like a drab match-up but is secretly the most important game on the sked. The Rams can't afford to fall too far behind the division leaders, even in the NFC West and the Redskins need to bounce back from their late nosedive at Dallas to show they're not the same old also-rans in the NFC East. I think the short week and the travel will get them. Rams 20, Redskins 17.
New Orleans at Jacksonville (+8): A rookie quarterback making his second career start against the Saints and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams? Where do I sign up? Games like this actually tempt me to bet real money. Saints 30, Jaguars 13 **FIVE STAR SPECIAL**
Pittsburgh at Houston (-4): Another fun game pitting two defenses bent on insisting they're a lot better than they actually are. The Texans still don't know when the healthy Arian Foster is going to show up. The Steelers don't know who the heck will play tackle. I don't know if I'll be able to deal with all the singing Steelers fans at the sports bar. Hopefully they won't be singing at the end. Texans 34, Steelers 27.
NY Giants at Arizona (+1): Eli Manning is coming off a great game, even with no-name receivers, and the Cards scored just 10 points at Seattle. Pressure is mounting on Kevin Kolb to show he's a franchise QB, or it would be if Arizona had any fans. (Hey-O.) I'm gonna go with the team I know has a running game I can trust and some pass rushers. Giants 27, Cardinals 20 **THREE STAR SPECIAL**
Atlanta at Seattle (+6): No, this will not be one of games I catch up on later. The Falcons don't have much rhythm on offense and Matt Ryan has been getting knocked around, but they're not gonna have to score much to get past the low-watt Seahawks. Falcons 23, Seahawks 13. **TWO STAR SPECIAL**
Denver at Green Bay (-13): The line surprises me. The Packers in recent years just haven't taken games like this very seriously, and Kyle Orton can put up some garbage time points throwing it to Brandon Lloyd and Eric Decker. Packers 34, Broncos 24.
New England at Oakland (+5): My heart says Raiders, my head says Patriots. I can't see New England losing two in a row. Maybe if the Raiders were more of a passing team instead of a running team, but they aren't. Bill Belichick is gonna make Jason Campbell try to match points with Tom Brady, and he's not up to it.
Patriots 38, Raiders 24.
Miami at San Diego (-9): No Antonio Gates for the Chargers and the Dolphins for some bizarre reason are way better on the road than at home. The Chargers pass rush has been lackluster and San Diego has given off some bad vibes so far, where even Philip Rivers has been uncharacteristically sloppy. Chargers 24, Dolphins 17.
NY Jets at Baltimore (-4): What a game. For my money these are the two most complete teams in the AFC. I'm curious whether the Jets will use Darrelle Revis on Anquan Boldin or rookie Torrey Smith, who demolished the Rams last week. Rex Ryan will worry the most about taking away Ray Rice after how badly Oakland's Darren McFadden gashed them. The Jets have to forget about trying to get Shonn Greene going and go right at Baltimore's corners. I'll take the Jets and the points. Ravens 20, Jets 17.
Indianapolis at Tampa Bay (-10): What a dog game. Curtis Painter against a rabid Buccaneers defense. I'm still waiting for Josh Freeman to get untracked and this is the week it's gonna happen. The Colts gave it everything they had last week against Pittsburgh and it still wasn't enough. I think this is the week they quit. Buccaneers 27, Colts 10.
Last week's W-L: 13-3
Season W-L: 32-16
Week 3 Vs. Spread: 9-7
Season Vs. Spread: 17-29-2
Week 3 +/- Points (All games count as one point unless specified): +8
Season +/- Points: -22
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