Thursday, September 8, 2011

Crabtree talks, Goldson sits, Baalke stays busy and more speculating about the inactives.

After a six week wait, we finally got to talk to the one and only Michael Crabtree today. Six-and-a-half minutes later I was wondering to myself what all the fuss was about.

Okay, Crabtree wasn't that bad, he gave us a couple of useful tidbits such as he had surgery to fix his broken left foot "sometime in July" and that he'll be wearing custom-made molded Michael Jordan brand cleats, but on the whole it's pretty obvious that talking to the media is not something he enjoys or feels comfortable doing. I don't think he's a bad guy or a grouch or anything like that. He's just a really shy dude.

A reporter asked him if practicing again for the first time was like riding a bike and Crabtree responded, "It was like playing football."

Oh.

Shortly after Crabtree complained about the heat of the camera light on him, but it was one of those LED lights that gives off no heat.

At one point Crabtree seemed almost offended when asked which receiving positions he feels comfortable playing in the offense, saying "All of them. I'm a wide receiver and that consists of playing all three positions."

However, another time he admitted that he may not be as much of an expert on the playbook as some of his coaches have been suggesting. "I've got the basics down, but it's different when you go out there," Crabtree said.

He's an odd duck, that Crabtree, but the good news for 49ers fans is that he looked full speed and hitch free running routes during individual drills in practice. How much playing time he gets on Sunday is up in the air, but the good news is that while he'd certainly be an asset in the coming weeks, the team doesn't need him to beat Seattle.

You may recall last season Crabtree missed most of camp and all of preseason with a neck injury. The 49ers still rushed him out there for the first regular season game at Seattle because A) Mike Singletary kowtowed to Crabtree from day one and B) they really didn't have anybody else to start. Crabtree was rusty as hell in the game, had a couple of balls clank off his hands (one for a costly interception) and the 49ers got routed. In the second half ex-radio color man Gary Plummer was hollering for Crabtree to be benched, he was playing so poorly, and so clearly confused about his assignments.

Now, with Braylon Edwards on board, along with Joshua Morgan and even Ted Ginn, there isn't as much pressure for Crabtree to produce right away. He can be mixed into the game and play in a few packages he's comfortable with instead of being relied on for 65 snaps off the bat. It's good for him, good for the team and good for Alex Smith, who doesn't have to force passes his way.
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On the other side of the injury ledger is Dashon Goldson. He pretty much declared himself out for Sunday's game, saying his left knee still has "irritation."

Goldson didn't practice on Sunday and worked out with trainers on the side field.

Reggie Smith, who's recovering from his own knee injury was on the scout team, impersonating Seahawks safety Earl Thomas, so that's a good bet that he's not gonna start since guys on the scout team rarely do.

That leaves it to Madieu Williams to start, which means the 49ers will have an entirely different starting secondary than they did last season. Williams and Donte Whitner are both free agent pickups, as is left corner Carlos Rogers; and the right corner is expected to be Tarell Brown, who was a reserve last year behind starters Shawntae Spencer and Nate Clements. Clements is a Cincinnati Bengal these days and Spencer, who just started practicing yesterday himself (he reported no setbacks from his balky hamstring) probably needs to earn the confidence and faith of his coaching staff before he regains his starting job -- or he needs to wait for Brown simply play poorly enough to give it to him.

Count Ray McDonald, who was a reserve last year, linebackers Ahmad Brooks and NaVorro Bowman (ditto) and rookie edge-rusher Aldon Smith, and the 49ers defense could have as many eight different guys playing the majority of the snaps on Sunday than the ones who started in 2010. That's massive turnover.

Here's the thing though: The defense needed to be turned over. They needed to get younger and faster. The national reputation about the 49ers defense was they were good these past couple seasons, or at least above-average, but while that might have been the case in 2009, in large part to all the turnovers they got at home, they were pretty bad last year, especially as a pass defense. Look at the numbers if you don't believe me, the 49ers ranked in the bottom quadrant of the league in just about every pass defense category except interceptions.

I think the 49ers have upgraded their talent on defense considerably, especially at linebacker, but it will take a while for all these guys to play cohesively. Having defensive coordinator Vic Fangio at coordinator will help a lot, and he'll be able to patch over their flaws better than Greg Manusky did. Fangio also favors blitzing more than his predecessor did, so we're liable to see more big plays both for and against the defense than the Chinese water torture we'd grown so accustomed to with the past regime.

One thing that I found interesting is that, according to Williams, no coaches have come up to him to pick his brain about Seahawks QB Tarvaris Jackson or offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell. Williams practiced against those guys every day for three years at Minnesota, and yet no one is coming to him for tips? I find that odd.

"We've got a good coaching staff here, they don't need my help," said Williams.

He's another guy who hasn't exactly been engaging with us or snapping off witty one-liners. My theory is he's a bit chagrined about having joined the team with the idea that he'd only have to beat out Reggie Smith for a starting spot only to discover soon after he came on that Goldson was re-signed and immediately promoted to starter again.

Now he'll get a chance to show his stuff. Maybe if he has a big game, picks off a wayward Jackson pass or two, the coaching staff might feel Goldson's knee is still too irritated...
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The 49ers didn't make any roster moves the past couple days, but it hasn't been for lack of trying.

They made waiver claims on two guys the New England Patriots cut: CB Darius Butler and TE Lee Smith. Carolina wound up getting Butler and Smith went to Buffalo, since both those teams had worse record than the 49ers last year.

It's well known the 49ers are in the market for a third tight end who's a blocking specialist, and I suppose Smith fits the bill there (no pun intended), but the Butler claim is the more interesting one to me. Who would they have dropped if they got him? Tramaine Brock? Spencer? I've gotten the sense that staff isn't that high on Spencer and that the only reason he's still here is because literally nobody else has done well enough to justify cutting him. Brown has been so-so as a starter in preseason, but I fully expect the Seahawks to target him on Sunday (as well as Whitner and the linebackers with passes to tight end Zach Miller and their running backs), while Brock has been worse than so-so.

I'm a bit surprised the 49ers didn't try trading for Eagles slot corner Joselio Hanson, who was a 49er once upon a time. Philadelphia is so deep there that Hanson was on the market, but general manager Trent Baalke is loathe to deal away draft picks.

Obviously we'll all pay attention to how Alex Smith and the linemen play, but I'm very curious how corners will perform this week and the next against Dallas. I have a feeling that spot on the defense may see some shuffling. Heck, 3rd round pick Chris Culliver might see some action by the end of the year.

Also, the 49ers worked out former Rams receiver Donnie Avery. He's a talented kid, but he tore his ACL in preseason last year and apparently didn't recover sufficiently enough for coach Steve Spagnuolo's liking, as the team cut him at the end of preseason.

It's true the 49ers could use another deep threat at receiver, and I guess it doesn't hurt to kick Avery's tires, but what does it say about him when St. Louis -- a club that's hardly got all-world guys in their receiving corps by the way -- cuts the guy?

If their coaches felt that Avery was worse than Brandon Gibson and Danny Amendola, then you probably won't help the 49ers.
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An updated guess on who will be the 46 guys active for Sunday's game:

QB (2) Smith and Colin Kaepernick, with Scott Tolzien still trying to learn the playbook.
RB (3) Offensive coordinator Greg Ramon said Frank Gore, Kendell Hunter and Anthony Dixon will all play.
FB (2) Moran Norris starts, Bruce Miller sees time at tight end and on special teams.
WR (5) I think everybody is up for this one. Kyle Williams dresses in case Crabtree has some kind of setback during the game.
TE (2) Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker are the only two they've got.
OL (7) Rookies Daniel Kilgore and Mike Person will have a great view all season long.
DL (5) I have Demarcus Dobbs joining Ricky Jean Francois as the reserves, Will Tukuafu and Ian Williams scratched. Just a guess here.
LB (7) I don't think new guy Tavares Gooden will be up to speed in time for Sunday.
CB (5) You need to keep Brock/Culliver in there to protect Spencer.
S (5) Goldson's out and everyone else would dress anyway.
ST (3) David Akers, Andy Lee and Brian Jennings as per usual.

Inactives:
Tolzien, Kilgore, Person, I. Williams, Tukuafu, Gooden, Goldson.

If I'm wrong about anyone, it's Gooden, but good luck figuring out who he comes in for. They'd be taking a chance at corner or receiver with only four guys.

Alright time drive to the Cohn abode. Hope the game will be a high scoring affair. Call it 31-24, Pack.

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

More Harbaugh Paranoia, A Healthy Crabtree, A Hurt Spencer, and NFL Predictions

The first regular season Wednesday has come and gone, and the 49ers are barreling toward their opener against Seattle full steam ahead, with coach Jim Harbaugh at his tightly-wound, paranoid best up at the podium.

When asked why the team has three receivers listed for two starting spots atop the depth chart, with Joshua Morgan at one spot and both Ted Ginn and Braylon Edwards sharing the marquee at the other, Harbaugh's explanation was "We feel that both Ted Ginn and Braylon Edwards are starting caliber, so we list them that way. It's pretty self-explanatory."

Oh.

Does that mean when Michael Crabtree comes back fully healthy and he takes over the starting spot, that Morgan will no longer be "starting caliber?"

Should we assume since there aren't any guys sharing the top spot at other positions that none of them are starting caliber? Guys like Aldon Smith, Shawntae Spencer, Madieu Williams, Adam Snyder... none of them are starting caliber? Why would a coach repeatedly say he's perfectly comfortable about the prospect of starting rookie quarterback Colin Kaepernick if he's not starting caliber?

It's just so pointlessly silly. He's dealing with grown men in his locker room and grown men (and women) in the media. Do we really have to play these stupid games over every trivial thing? Is it really gonna hurt Ted Ginn's feelings if he's not listed as a starter? Will it affect the Seahawks preparation one iota? Just have a straightforward depth chart already. There's no rule saying you can't change it later.
Otherwise, you wind up needlessly painting yourself into corners trying to explain things without trying to come off as dishonest or hypocritical.

Then there was that question near the end of the press conference, when Harbaugh was asked to compare Todd Mortensen, who struggled mightily at BYU before flourishing under Harbaugh at the University at San Diego, with Alex Smith, whose career with the 49ers we're well familiar with. Obviously, the reporter was working on a positive story angle, talking about one quarterback who overcame struggles and adversity and how Smith might very well be another. Anyone could understand -- especially given that it was a beat guy who asked the question and not some agenda-driven columnist -- that it was an opening to wax some optimistic poetry on Smith's future.

Of course, Harbaugh passed, saying he doesn't want to compare players.

Not in a positive light, not in a negative light, not in any light. Apparently we're all supposed to pretend the last six years of Smith's career never happened. It was all a mirage, a figment of our imagination. The past is the past and we're looking forward, blah blah blah.

It's already pretty annoying, this tired mantra of not getting into comparisons. The whole point of sports is to compare things. That's why there's a scoreboard. One team has more, one team has less. It's why coaches choose who starts, or who makes the team and who rides the bench or gets cut. Harbaugh probably makes a thousand comparisons a day. When he sees something on the practice field he doesn't like, it's because he's subconsciously comparing it to what it should look like.

The truthful part of his statement isn't about not making comparisons. Rather, it's the "I don't want to," part. I'm sure Harbaugh would simply love to answer every single question "I don't want to tell you that," and for the most part he's doing precisely that.
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Alright, enough bitching. None of you care about that stuff and none of us will either, if the team plays well and Harbaugh proves he can coach at this level. The news of the day, and I guess I've buried the lede in that sense, is that Crabtree was practicing, in what little portion of practice we were allowed to watch (dang it, I'm doing it again). He wasn't running full speed, more like 75% I'd say, but that's not to say that he's not capable of it. I stress that we were only watching warmups, with Smith and Kaepernick throwing passes to receivers who aren't being covered by anybody. Guys are pretty much stretching out their limbs and we're ushered out of there well before anybody lines up 11-on-11. Crabtree wasn't listed as "limited" or anything like that on the injury report, so we can only assume he's fully healthy and ready to go. The enigmatic receiver has promised he'll talk to his once he's back running routes and practicing, so he'll be out of excuses by the time we're at his locker tomorrow.

In fact, on the injury report -- the first one they've released since camp opened a month ago (crap, I can't help myself) -- the only name on it was safety Dashon Goldson, who confided to CSN Bay Area that he hurt his knee in practice last week before the final preseason game at San Diego and that he couldn't have played in that one even if it was a regular season game. Well, Goldson missed today's practice too, so it's looking more and more likely that Madieu Williams will start at free safety, with Reggie Smith backing him up. It's true that Smith was atop the depth chart when camp began, but he's missed so much time with his own knee injury (including all four preseason games) and just started practicing recently himself, so it's hard to imagine him starting in week 1.
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Speaking of safeties, an interesting match-up to watch for against Seattle is going to be Donte Whitner against their new tight end Zach Miller, formerly of the Raiders. You may remember that Miller had quite a bit of success last year against the 49ers during their regular season meeting, when he burned then-rookie Taylor Mays and also their best coverage linebacker in Manny Lawson.

You say to yourself, "Well that won't happen again, almost anybody would be better than Mays," and while that's likely true, 49ers fans have to brace themselves for the reality that Whitner isn't exactly the second-coming of Ronnie Lott. Nor is he on par with guys like Troy Polamalu or Ed Reed. He's basically a rich man's Michael Lewis, and a guy who, at 26, is just entering his prime, but still an in-the-box safety. A tackle machine, yes, but not someone who can be counted on to check talented tight ends and quality receivers out of the backfield. Janie McCauley of the AP uncovered a troubling stat that Whitner actually allowed 10 (10!) touchdowns last season. Yikes.

For his part the personable Whitner isn't shying away from the match-up and he has an idea about the perception of his strengths and weaknesses as a player.

"I’m definitely excited for that match-up (with Miller)," he said. "We actually have the same agent, so we actually went through the free agency process together. I’m looking forward to it. I’m challenging myself. I’m challenging my teammates. It’s going to come down to some one-on-one battles with me and him. I know he played right across from here. He was in the Bay also. He’s a really good tight end in this league, but I think I see the best tight end in the National Football League here each and every day.

(Good answer.)

In fact, Whitner is the rare guy who admits to reading what the media and bloggers have to say about him.

"Coming from Buffalo I usually read a lot of the blogs and sometimes even fans," he explained. "They might not even know which defense you were in, you just might be in the area. It might not be your responsibility but they form their opinion based on what they see form the cut ups. Just a little extra motivation for myself."

You can't root in this business, of course, but lets just say I wouldn't mind seeing Whitner have a good day in coverage against the Seahawks.
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I'll have more about the match-up with Seattle on Friday, and a full-out 49ers preview on Saturday, but you'll forgive me if I ignore all the Harbaugh-Pete Carroll stuff for a couple of days. The columnists were out here in full force (save Ratto, who has apparently made it his goal to avoid 4949 Centennial Blvd. unless there's a gun to his head) hunting for that predictable story, but even more predictably, both coaches -- especially Harbaugh -- did what they could to pour cold water over that campfire.

Okay, technically Carroll did joke that he hopes to see a lot of boom mics at their pregame huddle so that the media can get "the real scoop" on how things are between the two, but both men claimed admiration for the other from a professional standpoint, but made it clear that they don't know each other socially and have no reason to. Harbaugh said he's not friendly with any coach in the NFL outside of his brother, so in that respect his relationship with Carroll isn't any different to him than the 30 other coaches in the league. However, he was wrong about that philosophy being standard operating procedure among coaches in the NFL. Lots of them are friends with each other, and good friends at that. Heck, some owe their current jobs to others.

I do agree with Harbaugh that for the most part the players will decide the game, not the coaches (that's almost always the case, unless there's a dramatic difference in the quality of the staffs, which is what the 49ers have been victims to in the past) and that it's an overrated story. I'm much more interested in the relationship between Harbaugh and Smith than I am in Harbaugh and Carroll. I also care about how Harbaugh is with us, and by extension, to the fans. That's everyday stuff. The Carroll thing is fleeting, just something to pass the time a couple weeks a year. The fact that it comes in the season opener, and the first game of Harbaugh's pro coaching career, pushes their personal angle into the back-burner in my mind. There's already so much other stuff to talk about.
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The thing that can't wait any longer is my predictions for the season, since the Thursday game between the Saints and defending champion Packers is coming up. What a beaut that one is, the last two Super Bowl winners and a pair of superstar quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. I'm scheduled to watch the game at the Cohn abode as young Grant has invited me over, and it should make for some good trash talk as we're squaring off against each other in the first week of fantasy and Brees and Greg Jennings are both on my roster.

So, without further ado...

AFC East:

1) NY Jets (11-5): Best secondary 1 thru 8 of anybody in the league, and I think Mark Sanchez takes another step forward.
2) New England (11-5): Everyone loves them, but I still see the same holes in their secondary, not to mention a lack of speed at receiver.
3) Miami (6-10): Some plucky young pass-rushers and a pair of good corners, but offense has to rely on Chad Henne and Reggie Bush.
4) Buffalo (5-11): They'll stop the run, and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is underrated, but there isn't much to like here. Their offensive line looks awful.

AFC North:

1) Baltimore (12-4): Remade their receiving corps in the off-season and got younger and faster. Defense needs rookie CB Jimmy Smith to contribute quickly.
2) Pittsburgh (10-6): The year after always seems to be Murphy's Law for Super Bowl losers. Steelers have shaky offensive tackles and overrated corners.
3) Cleveland (7-9): Organization taking positive steps, but still a couple years away. Need more at receiver, and playmakers on defense.
4) Cincinnati (3-13): Rookie starting QB, rookie receiver and a defense rebuilt around guys the 49ers didn't want. Oy vey.

AFC South:

1. Houston (10-6):
I'm not sold on them as much as others. Defense showed pass-rushing potential, but it was only preseason. Need Arian Foster healthy.
2. Indianapolis (8-8): I didn't like this roster a whole lot even before Peyton Manning's injury woes came to light. A number of poor drafts in a row.
3. Tennessee (7-9): There's some talent here, especially at running back, but they have a stopgap veteran QB blocking a mobile rookie. Sounds familiar.
4. Jacksonville (4-12): Letting go of David Garrard signals they're pretty close to going with Blaine Gabbert at QB. He'll have to take his lumps.

AFC West:

1. San Diego (10-6):
Love the offense, even with the platoon backs, but not sure their defense can pressure the passer consistently. Tougher schedule too.
2. Kansas City (9-7): They've got more talent on both sides of the ball than they get credit for, but losing TE Tony Moeaki will hurt a lot.
3. Denver (6-10): There isn't much on offense beyond Brandon Lloyd, but defense gets Elvis Dumervil back plus super-rookie 'backer Von Miller.
4. Oakland (5-11): They lost their best corner, their best run blocker and their best receiver in tight end Zach Miller. Where did they get better?

NFC East:

1. Philadelphia (12-4):
They'll be close to unbeatable if that offensive line can keep Michael Vick and their skill guys healthy, but that's a big if.
2. Dallas (9-7): Getting Tony Romo back for the whole year will boost their fortunes, questions persist about their offensive line and secondary.
3. NY Giants (8-8): Their linebackers and secondary are beat up and Eli Manning looked inconsistent as ever in the preseason. Talented offense though.
4. Washington (5-11): That quarterback combo of Rex Grossman and John Beck might lead more cynical types to suspect they're tanking for Andrew Luck.

NFC North:

1. Green Bay (11-5):
They've lost a lot of their reserves in the off-season, so either rookies step up or starters need to stay healthy. Not easy to repeat.
2. Minnesota (8-8): I like them a bit more than most. Donovan McNabb is due for a bounce-back year and they still have some elite players.
3. Detroit (7-9): Still a year or two away. They have no semblance of a secondary. Also questions at running back and with Stafford's wonky shoulder.
4. Chicago (7-9): Possibly the worst offensive line in the league and a less-than-impressive receiving corps around Jay Cutler. Overrated defense.

NFC South:

1. New Orleans (12-4):
With rookie Mark Ingram aboard the offense should be unstoppable. Defense needs to prove it can get a pass rush without blitzing.
2. Tampa Bay (10-6): Young playmakers everywhere on offense and defense. Only problems are immaturity and a lack of quality depth behind starters.
3. Atlanta (10-6): Sure, offense looks dynamic, but what's there to love about their D? Their secondary is a mess. Same crew that gave up 48 points to Packers.
4. Carolina (3-13): If they intend to start Cam Newton the whole year it's gonna be ugly. It would be even if they didn't. Another crappy secondary.

NFC West:

1. St. Louis (9-7):
Tough schedule, but the most complete team top to bottom. Defensive line has potential to pose a monster pass rush.
2. San Francisco (8-8): They'll be better than a lot of people think, but not quite good enough. That offensive line will be the death of them.
3. Arizona (7-9): Kevin Kolb is better than what they had last year, but not a franchise QB. Defense won't be able to pressure consistently.
4. Seattle (6-10): They might be terrible, possibly even on purpose, but their home field is worth two or three wins by itself.

Playoffs:

First round:

6) Pittsburgh over 3) Houston; 4) San Diego over 5) New England;
3) Green Bay over 6) Atlanta; 5) Tampa Bay over 4) St. Louis

Second round:

1) Baltimore over 5) New England; 3) San Diego over 2) NY Jets;
1) New Orleans over 5) Tampa Bay; 2) Philadelphia over 3) Green Bay

Conference Championships:

1) Baltimore over 4) San Diego; 1) New Orleans over 2) Philadelphia

Super Bowl:

New Orleans over Baltimore


Yeah, boring. Sue me. Should be a fun year and it all kicks off tomorrow. I like the Packers at home because the defending champion always wins the home debut on Thursday, though if any team can pull the upset, it's the Saints, who are probably more ready for the game. I think Green Bay's deep secondary is the difference. Yes, I like the Pack to cover the spread (-4.5).

Sunday, September 4, 2011

Scott Tolzien's in, Keaton Kristick's down and Ronald Johnson's out: 49ers compile practice squad

The 49ers, as expected, signed a third quarterback to round out the roster, but it was not a veteran. On the surface that sounds surprising, or, if you want to be honest about it, it flat out bad idea given that they have Alex Smith starting and a schizophrenic offensive line in front of him. But look at what's out there. For the most part teams have held on to their veteran QBs.

Here's a list of the guys cut: Brodie Croyle (Arizona), John Parker Wilson (Atlanta), Adam Froman (Atlanta), Hunter Cantwell (Baltimore), Levi Brown (Buffalo), Joshua Nesbitt (Buffalo), Tony Pike (Carolina), Dan LeFevour (Cincinnati), Jarrett Brown (Cleveland), Tom Brandstater (Dallas), Adam Weber (Denver [sorry, Tebow fans]), Zac Robinson (Detroit), Graham Harrell (Green Bay), Dan Orlovsky (Indianapolis), Pat Devlin (Miami), Kevin O'Connell (Miami), Sean Canfield (New Orleans), Ryan Perrilloux (New York Giants), Drew Willy (New York Jets), Trent Edwards (Oakland), Scott Tolzien (San Diego), Jonathan Crompton (Tampa Bay), Rudy Carpenter (Tampa Bay), Matt Gutierrez (Washington), Kellen Clemens (Washington).

It's a veritable wasteland of young QBs that teams ran out of patience trying to develop or have ticketed to their practice squads to toil in obscurity. There are very, very few NFL starts here.

Clemens has made nine of them, with eight coming in the 2007 season for the Jets. He has a career 59.7 passer rating.

Croyle had ten starts (six of them in 2007) in five seasons for the Chiefs and has gone a perfect oh-and-10. His QB rating is 67.8.

Orlovsky made all seven of his career starts for the 2008 Lions. He went 0-7 and they went 0-16. His career rating is 71.3 (close to Alex Smith's career mark).

There's only one other guy on the list who's made any starts, and obviously that's Edwards, who's played in 37 games and started 33 of them. A 3rd-round pick out of Stanford for the Bills, Edwards peaked in his second season, starting 14 games, completing 65.5% of his passes for 2,699 yards and throwing 11 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. His QB rating of 85.4 is better than any season of Smith's career, for a reference point.

However, Edwards' career has taken a sharp turn for the worse since then and the Bills eventually gave up on him as a franchise QB prospect. He was waived early in the 2010 season, signed by the Jaguars, where he saw action in three games and started one, and signed as a free agent by the Raiders in the off-season. They cut him, deciding to go with Kyle Boller (Kyle Boller!!!11!) as the backup to Jason Campbell. For whatever reason, coach Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers wanted no piece of him. Edwards completed 22-of-39 passes (56.4%) for 254 yards, with one touchdown and one interception in the preseason, and was 3-of-6 for 36 yards and a pick against the 49ers on Aug. 20.

So, given all that information, the news that they claimed Tolzien off waivers from the Chargers isn't a big shock. Tolzien, along with Froman from Louisville, were two quarterbacks the team liked during the draft, and they likely would've pressed harder to sign one or the other if the CBA had allowed them to do so. Remember, the lockout was lifted for one day back then (when all the 49ers offensive guys got their playbooks), but it was forbidden for teams to sign anybody. Tolzien's agent steered him to San Diego, figuring that the 49ers weren't going to dump Smith or their 2nd-round pick, Colin Kaepernick, and that the team would likely add a veteran. The Chargers on the other hand had no other youngsters to compete with. Still, those roster spots are valuable, and San Diego probably figured they could stash Tolzien on their practice squad. They gambled there, and lost (not that GM A.J. Smith will cry into his fish taco about it, he's got Philip Rivers on his team for crying out loud).

Here's what we know about Tolzien: He was 21-5 the last two seasons as a starter for Wisconsin and is the university's all-time career leader in completion percentage (68.1). He also holds school records in single-season completions (211, in 2009) and single-season completion percentage (72.9, in 2010). He was the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm
Award winner last season and a Second-Team All-Big Ten honoree. He beat Ohio State last season, but lost the 2011 Rose Bowl to Andy Dalton and TCU 21-19.

You may recall watching Tolzien just a few days ago if you decided to take in that final preseason game at San Diego. Against the 49ers he was 16-of-23 (69.6%) for 226 yards, with one touchdown and one interception. He completed several long passes down the right sideline over Chris Culliver, who had tight coverage on those plays, but Culliver got the last laugh with a late interception on a rare Tolzien under-throw. For the preseason Tolzien finished 25-of-40 (62.5%) for 302 yards and that same one touchdown and one interception. His QB rating was 83.5.

So now the 49ers will have two rookies backing up Smith. Jim Harbaugh's gonna take a lot of heat for that, if anything goes wrong. It appears that he's got an extremely high faith in both Smith and the offensive line, and there's really no rationale for either.

Here's something to consider though -- Edwards wasn't technically the most-experienced quarterback cut on Saturday. Josh McCown has seen action in 49 games, with 31 starts. The 49ers might have figured that their only shot at Tolzien would be to put a waiver claim on him, necessitating a spot on the 53-man roster (POSTSCRIPT: Jason LaConfora of NFL Network tells me the Niners were the only team to put in a claim on him. Oh well.) Perhaps when the dust settles in a few weeks, they can try sneaking him through waivers and onto their practice squad and re-sign McCown to be Smith's backup.

Speaking of the practice squad, the 49ers have filled their eight slots there for the time being. Linebacker Keaton Kristick's Twitter joy at making the team was short-lived. He was released to make room for Tolzien before passing unclaimed through waivers.

The other seven guys are: C Chase Beeler, G/T Derek Hall, WR Joe Hastings, CB Cory Nelms, RB Xavier Omon, TE Konrad Reuland and LB Monte Simmons.

Beeler, Hall and Reuland were all Stanford guys who played under Harbaugh and safe bets for the practice squad all along. I wasn't impressed at all by Beeler, but I guess they needed an 11th offensive lineman and another guy who could snap the ball when they decided to cut Tony Wragge (who was signed by the Rams).

I was surprised nobody made a claim on Omon, who had 30 carries for 121 yards in the preseason. I think he'd be a top-three back for quite a few teams -- including the 49ers.

Nelms was more renowned as a track guy at Miami than a football player, but was timed at 4.38 in the 40-yard dash during his workout and did show some promise in camp and in the preseason. He should've had an interception in that Chargers game, but the ball clanked off his hands.

The two names that surprise me are Simmons and Hastings, neither of who did a thing in the preseason. I honestly can't think of a single receiver on the training camp roster who got less practice reps than Hastings, but I could be wrong. Similarly, Simmons got such little playing time in the games that he didn't record a single tackle in any of them. Both of them have to add some serious weight to survive at this level.

I do give the 49ers a ton of credit for not having Ronald Johnson on their practice squad. A lot of teams/GMs don't want to admit mistakes by completely casting draft picks aside so early, but the 49ers did just that with their 6th-round pick out of USC. Nothing against him personally, but Johnson was terrible in the preseason.

The team's roster shuffling looks done for now, but they may still elect to add a veteran tight end. If and when they do, they'll likely cut either DT Will Tukuafu or S Colin Jones.
************************************************************************************
Yesterday, Harbaugh said that Jones made the team largely (perhaps entirely) for his special teams prowess and to that end he would be one of the 46 players dressed on Sundays. So I got out the ol' notebook and started looking at various scenarios that would accommodate that.

Here's my best guess at their thinking:

QB (2): Tolzien sits, which would make sense since he has to learn the offense.
RB (3): Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter and Anthony Dixon will have roles on game day.
FB (2): Bruce Miller will contribute on special teams and fill in as a third tight end. Harbaugh will also use a sixth lineman, most likely tackle Alex Boone, as a third tight end in short-yardage situations.
WR (4): The odd man out would be Kyle Williams most weeks, but it could be Michael Crabtree for the first game if he's not ready to go.
TE (2): There's no third tight end to sit, so they're fine there.
OL (7): Rookies Daniel Kilgore and Mike Person are out. Adam Snyder will back up the interior three spots and Boone will be the swing tackle. Things get tricky if Snyder ever replaces Chilo Rachal in the starting lineup, because Rachal isn't versatile enough to play center. Then Kilgore would have to dress.
DL (6): My guess is that Ian Williams will be the odd man out because he was running on the third team during the preseason. Will Tukuafu could sit too, if they decide to go with just five guys. Ricky Jean Francois is versatile enough to play at nose and at end.
LB (7): Antwan Applewhite could sit, with either Aldon Smith or Parys Haralson backing up and getting plenty of playing time at both outside spots in a three man rotation with Ahmad Brooks. Larry Grant would be the top backup at both inside spots, while Blake Costanzo is primarily just a special teams guy.
CB (4): Shawntae Spencer might be a scratch until his hamstring heals, but after that it will be interesting to see if Tramaine Brock or Chris Culliver is the one down. Culliver can return kicks and has gotten better week after week, whereas Brock's regressed.
S (6): Dashon Goldson, Donte Whitner, Madieu Williams and Reggie Smith will all play, while C.J. Spillman and Colin Jones are special teams guys.
ST (3): Andy Lee punts and holds for kicks. David Akers is the kicker. Brian Jennings is the long snapper.

So, your seven guys not dressed and assuming everyone's healthy are: QB Tolzien, WR K. Williams, G/C Kilgore, T Person, NT I. Williams, LB Applewhite and CB Brock. They could play Applewhite and sit Tukuafu or sit both and play Kyle Williams, who can return kicks and has YAC skills.

Me? I wouldn't even have Jones on the roster in the first place. He's not that good on special teams. Dressing six safeties is kinda crazy.
************************************************************************************
Finally, a belated look at my fantasy team. I play in a 14-team league and was drafting second, so after deciding on Drew Brees over Michael Vick (don't trust him to stay healthy behind that line), I had to wait until the 27th pick to grab my second guy, settling on Dallas' Felix Jones when that bastard Grant Cohn stole Ahmad Bradshaw of the Giants one pick before me.

Here's the full roster:

2. QB Drew Brees, Saints
27. RB Felix Jones, Cowboys
30. WR Greg Jennings, Packers
55. WR Wes Welker, Patriots
58. TE Dallas Clark, Colts
83. RB Joseph Addai, Colts
86. RB James Starks, Packers
111. New York Jets Defense
114. WR Lee Evans, Ravens
139. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills
142. TE Tony Moeaki, Chiefs
167. RB Kendall Hunter, 49ers
170. WR Donald Driver, Packers
195. K Ryan Succop, Chiefs
198. RB Tashard Choice, Cowboys
223. WR Joshua Cribbs, Browns
226. LB Brian Urlacher, Bears
251. St. Louis Defense
254. K Adam Vinatieri, Colts
279. WR Donald Jones, Bills


No regrets with the first four picks, but I'm furious with myself for panicking and taking Clark in the 5th round, and not just because of the injury situation with Peyton Manning. Plenty of good tight ends were still evaluable and there was a run on #2 RBs after that pick, meaning that I lost out on Washington's Tim Hightower, Denver's Knowshon Moreno, Cincinnati's Cedric Benson, and both Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert from San Diego. I had to settle (sigh) on Addai, who's extremely injury prone.

The Starks pick in round six will either make me look like a genius or a dummy, depending on whether he beats out Ryan Grant for a starting job with the Packers. If he does, then I can park Addai on the bench.

Moeaki was lost for the season with a torn ACL a couple days after our draft, so I've replaced him with Philly's Brent Celek. Vick has vowed to throw to Celek more this season, so we'll see. I might have to start him if Manning's out.

The Hunter pick was made in case Gore goes down. I'm hoping he doesn't, because I like Gore personally, but you can't ignore the fact that he's gotten fewer carries every season since 2006.

Choice is a handcuff for Felix Jones. Unless they decide to use DeMarco Murray instead, in which case I'd be boned.

For a look at our draft, here's the link. I'm not sure if it will work for people who aren't in it or not. Right now Grant's team (lazily named SQUAD) looks the best to me. That's what I get for inviting him, I guess.

Saturday, September 3, 2011

Black Saturday Part II: The Cruelest Cut of All

Okay, so the cuts have been made, and there was one 5-out-of-10 surprise that really wasn't so surprising when you stop and think about it and a couple of 3s. No starters were cut. CB Shawntae Spencer, LB Parys Haralson, FB Moran Norris and WR Ted Ginn are all still 49ers. So for that matter are CBs Tarell Brown and Tramaine Brock.

No, the biggest name to hit the bricks is QB Josh McCown. But as my bud Eric Branch over at the Chronicle pointed out, there are two possible angles where to take that, and both can be equally true.

1) It was Colin Kaepernick's fault that McCown got cut because Kaepernick is even rawer than the pragmatic coaching staff figured he would be and they've come to the realization that they need a legitimate backup in case Alex Smith gets hurt or plays like Alex Smith-like on us. McCown is central casting for a no. 3, but giving him backup status might have been a reach.

2) McCown was never seriously in Harbaugh's plans and he was just a two week stopgap to get through camp. After all, he only got playing time in the final game, and just four pass attempts at that (all of which he completed, but I digress).

Where that leaves the 49ers is in search of a veteran. Guys like Brodie Croyle, John Parker Wilson, Kellen Clemens, Graham Harrell, Tony Pike and Dan Orlovsky were let go, but none of them have much experience. In fact, of all the guys let go, the one with most experience is... wait for it... Josh McCown. I suppose technically Jake Delhomme is out there, but do you really want to subject your fan base to that? I'm not sure what the plan is, at the moment. Maybe the front office has the sense that someone will be let go who hasn't been announced yet. There's always J.T. O'Sullivan... or maybe they can give Jeff Garcia a phone call. How old is he, 43?

Two other guys who were given their walking papers were C/G Tony Wragge and undrafted rookie TE Konrad Reuland.

I was stubborn about Wragge because of the foolish notion that he's actually better right now than the kid the team drafted to replace him, 5th-round pick Daniel Kilgore. But they already have Jonathan Goodwin and Adam Snyder to snap the ball, and Snyder will be the first one off the bench at any of the three interior spots. They're only gonna dress seven linemen for the games anyway, so I guess they didn't want to justify keeping Wragge on. The shame of it is back when Wragge first joined the 49ers in 2005, he wasn't any kind of NFL player. It's been a long road to mediocrity for him, but just last season he started to look like a serviceable pro, the kind of guy who won't get you killed if he had to play. That may not seem like glowing praise, but coming from the depths Wragge was at, believe me it is. He gets full marks for the work he's put in. I think he'll eventually get a look somewhere, but he might have to wait for some injuries to hit first.

Reuland's story is simply. It was assumed that the undrafted rookie from Stanford had the third tight end job wrapped up once Nate Byham tore his ACL early in camp, but after Reuland peaked in that second preseason game against Oakland where nearly everyone looked good, he regressed the next week against Houston and played sparingly at San Diego, trying to shake a leg injury. He's a pretty good receiver, but he doesn't have the speed or agility to shake too many people for RAC yards and his blocking left much to be desired. He's headed to the practice squad, precisely where we figured he would when Byham was healthy. Look for the Niners to sign a vet who can block such as Desmond Clark, who was cut by the Chicago Bears.

As for the guys who made it in their stead, there was DT Will Tukuafu, the least-impressive of that second unit that also featured Demarcus Dobbs and Ian Williams;6th-round pick Colin Jones, a safety from TCU who's strictly a special teamer at this point; and linebacker Keaton Kristick, who I thought was seriously hurt last Thursday when he was carted off, but it turned out he'll only miss 5-7 days. The 49ers have gone heavy at all three defensive levels -- seven linemen, nine linebackers, 11 defensive backs -- and expect those numbers to return to normal once the team signs another QB and a TE. I think of these three guys Tukuafu would be only who's in danger of being snatched up from waivers. Jones and Kristick could still be on the practice squad by Week 1 yet.

Speaking of the practice squad, the 49ers have apparently told four of their rookies that they'll be re-joining the team in that capacity should they make it through waivers. Reuland makes perfect sense. So does Miami CB Cory Nelms, who's had his moments in camp and in preseason. He should've had an interception the other night, but the ball doinked off his hands. Center Chase Beeler is a bit of a stretch because I didn't see anything in his play that suggested he's a keeper, but he is a Stanford guy and he did practice with Alex Smith and the fellas at San Jose State a couple months back. The real head-scratcher, however, is WR Joe Hastings from Washburn. I didn't think this guy would make it to the 80-man cut let alone a practice squad gig. If he ever played a snap of offense in presason, I missed it. He gets less practice reps than anyone who's surname doesn't begin with "Crab" and end with "tree." He doesn't look particularly fast or sure-handed, and he's the skinniest guy on the team outside of Andy Lee. In fact, if you didn't know him (and you had no reason to) you'd swear he was a camp leg. Literally the only thing I've ever noticed about Hastings is that he looks like a blond Michael Cera.

When his agent tweeted that Hastings was in line for a practice squad spot, I said to myself, "Who, him? What, is he funny or something?"*

No practice squad love, it seems, for my guy Chris Hogan. That ankle injury he suffered on Aug. 9 changed everything for him and you have to wonder if he'll ever get another shot anywhere. There are other guys who are candidates for practice squat spots, including:

RB Xavier Omon -- though I certainly think he's good enough to make some team.
WR Ronald Johnson -- he is, after all, a 6th-round pick.
T Derek Hall -- another Stanford guy, and I thought he was better than Beeler.
NT Sealver Siliga -- but not if Tukuafu has to move down here.
LB Alex Joseph -- same deal as Siliga, except with replace "Tukuafu" with "Kristick."

Also, the team could bring in another young QB to develop; someone like Wisconsin's Scott Tolzien, who I was surprised that got cut by San Diego after how well he played against the 49ers on Thursday; or Louisville's Adam Froman, who the 49ers were reportedly interested in signing after the draft. He picked the Atlanta Falcons instead and it didn't work out for him.

Two fellows who aren't practice eligible and who were shown the door were WR Dominique Zeigler and CB Phillip Adams. Both suffered gruesome late-season leg injuries last season -- Zeigler to his knee, Adams to his ankle -- and struggled to make it back in time to compete in camp. Ziegler was on the PUP list until Aug. 22, caught one pass in the third preseason game, and then was a ghost in the preseason finale. Adams was a full participant in camp after missing the first few initial practices, but he clearly wasn't right. He had his straight line speed, but he couldn't cut or change direction with any kind of smoothness at all. Picture a smaller version of Taylor Mays, but at cornerback. Not pretty, right? Adams was toasted a number of times on Thursday by no-name receivers, and the guy I saw last year was better than that.

I feel badly for both guys for a number of reasons. Like I said, neither have practice squad eligibility, and both of these men were among the most personable and professional on the whole team. They made our jobs easier and made themselves available and accountable. It just didn't work out for them, as it often doesn't in this business.

Not to blow smoke up their fannies, but I truly believe both are talented enough to play at this level. But they have to get fully healthy first and need someone else to give them an honest chance. Good luck to both.
******************************************************************************
Full list of cuts:

1) CB Phillip Adams
2) C Chase Beeler
3) QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson
4) DT Brian Bulcke
5) FB Jack Corcoran
6) CB Phillip Davis
7) T Derek Hall
8) WR Joe Hastings
9) WR Chris Hogan
10)WR Ronald Johnson
11)LB Alex Joseph
12)TE Nate Lawrie
13)WR Lance Long
14)S Chris Maragos
15)QB Josh McCown
16)CB Cory Nelms
17)RB Xavier Omon
18)TE Konrad Reuland
19)LB Kenny Rowe
20)NT Sealver Siliga
21)LB Monte Simmons
22)FS Curtis Taylor
23)CB Anthony West
24)T Kenny Wiggins
25)G Tony Wragge
26)WR Dominique Zeigler

IR)TE Nate Byham (ACL)
IR)WR Dontavia Bogan (ACL)
IR)CB Curstis Holcomb (Achilles)



** That was for you "Arrested Development" fans out there.

Black Saturday

No time for a fancy introduction, so here's a guess at how the afternoon's gonna go...

Cut (24): C Chase Beeler, QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson, DT Brian Bulcke, FB Jack Corcoran, CB Phillip Davis, T Derek Hall, WR Joe Hastings, WR Chris Hogan, WR Ronald Johnson, S Colin Jones, LB Alex Joseph, TE Nate Lawrie, WR Lance Long, S Chris Maragos, CB Cory Nelms, RB Xavier Omon, LB Kenny Rowe, NT Sealver Siliga, LB Monte Simmons, S Curtis Taylor, DT Will Tukuafu, CB Anthony West, T Kenny Wiggins, WR Dominique Zeigler.

I still think that both G/C Tony Wragge and rookie T Mike Person will make the team, giving them 10 linemen on the opening 53-man roster. I know that's a high number, but here are my arguments for it.

1) There's absolutely nobody else, with the possible exception of DT Will Tukuafu, who you can argue is one of their best 53 players.
2) Wragge hasn't done a thing to show he doesn't deserve a job. In fact, 2011 is the best he's ever looked. I would certainly trust him to play right now over rookie Daniel Kilgore.
3) Person has also been better than expected and I think he'd be snapped up by somebody if he was exposed to waivers. Maybe a 53% chance, but still too risky for me.
4) I keep reading that teams typically keep 11 offensive linemen between their active roster and practice squad. Fine. So who says they have to keep two or three of those 11 on the practice squad? Please tell me who outside of their top ten looked worth a damn? Chase Beeler sure didn't. You can argue for Derek Hall -- MAYBE -- and that's being extremely charitable. If you want to bring in practice squad guys from other teams, that's one thing, but if you want to keep your best 11 linemen from this 80-man roster, then absolutely Wragge and Person both have to be included.
5) Tukuafu is alright, but seven defensive linemen for a 3-4 team that's gonna play only two DL on half their snaps is too many. I think there's a decent shot he'll make it to the practice squad.

Injured Reserve (3): CB Phillip Adams, TE Nate Byham, LB Keaton Kristick.

Byham you know about. He tore his ACL on the second day of camp. Him not being placed on IR until today was a procedural thing. I have no inside info, but I think the team will do right by Adams by shelving him for another year. He fractured his ankle in service last season and clearly wasn't right in camp or preseason. He was trying to grit through it as best he could in order to make the team, but he can't cut on it or change directions at all. They may just cut him -- the NFL is a cruel business -- but Adams did show some potential last year and it's not like these guys are deep at corner. They could also decide to keep him, but he'd be wasting roster space until November at least, I imagine. Another year on IR would be best for both parties. Kristick was carted off with a left ankle injury he suffered Thursday at San Diego, and I have to think it's serious enough to be a long-term deal. He was looking at a practice squad spot at best anyway.

Speaking of which, here are my practice squad projections:

QB Adam Froman*
WR Chris Hogan
WR Ronald Johnson
T Derek Hall
DT Will Tukuafu
LB Alex Joseph
CB Cory Nelms
S Colin Jones

Froman, the former Louisville QB, was reportedly a guy the 49ers had interest in signing after the draft, but he chose the Falcons instead. As it turned out, they cut him and he's out there. I'd have to think he'd be worth a look over Bethel-Thompson, but the 49ers could very well opt to go with a more mobile QB, if for no other reason than to give their defense somebody to practice against for when they have to face a guy like Michael Vick or Tarvaris Jackson. I don't think the 49ers are that high on any of the other seven guys, to be honest. I'm sure they'd love to keep Xavier Omon, but I have a feeling he'll be on somebody's 53-man roster (he certainly deserves to be). The same may be true for Will Tukuafu. Neither Ronald Johnson nor Colin Jones have done a thing to deserve even practice squad jobs, but teams don't usually dump their draft picks that quickly. Chris Hogan might be more of a figment of 49ers beat-man imagination than an actual person at this point.


Friday, September 2, 2011

49ers-Chargers Review: I Smell Championship

Final Score: 49ers 20, Chargers 17. Preseason Record: 2-2

As much significance as you can attach to a preseason game, the final one, no less, the 49ers need a good showing in San Diego, just to soothe their psyches, and those of coach Jim Harbaugh, quarterback Alex Smith, the starting offensive linemen, and of course their legions of fans who are tired of saying "This is the year of the great where our offense won't be a national joke."

So in that regard, mission accomplished.

Not only did Smith lead the offense to touchdowns on both of his series (after not being able to lead one such drive in the first three games), but he did it, to my surprise, against the first-string Chargers defense, who I didn't expect to play. Well, okay, it was mostly the first string defense, minus their nose tackle and two outside linebackers. Still, that takes away more from the accomplishments of tackles Joe Staley and Anthony Davis more than Smith himself.

Smith remains what he's always been, a guy that can win games as long as everyone around him does their jobs to the best of their ability. Without a good pass-blocking line, he's toast. You put him in constant 3rd-and-longs, he's toast. You have receivers who drop passes or linemen who take holding penalties, he's toast. Yes, Smith can succeed when everything is ideal, but A) it rarely is in the NFL, particularly with this team and B) how many QBs couldn't succeed in those situations?

It's true that Smith didn't have to face San Diego's best pass rushers, but in his defense he marched the team -- with lots of help from Kendall Hunter -- without the benefit of Frank Gore, Vernon Davis or Michael Crabtree, so that's something. I'm not sure what, but it's something.

Smith did have a couple of hairy moments. Ex-49er Travis LaBoy deflected one pass when he overpowered Hunter on a delayed rush, and it was precisely the kind of ball that Smith has seen carom into the hands of defenders so many times during his career. This time it bounced harmlessly to the turf. On third-down pass he drilled into Ted Ginn in between extremely tight coverage. Ginn, who'll never be confused for a sure-handed receiver had the ball bounce off his hands initially, but concentrated enough to secure it in midair to convert the first down. Finally, Smith had a 3rd-and-4 pass on a roll out to Joshua Morgan that was a bit low. Morgan had to adjust to catch it and the slight delay impaired his ability to get the ball in the end zone. Sure, in this case it wasn't a goal-to-go situation and Morgan still gained enough to make it 1st-and-goal from the 1, but most of the time in that spot it would be a 3rd-and-goal, and such a mistake would result in either a field goal or a risky 4th-and-goal play (see the San Diego game last season for further reference).

Overall it was a game to build on for Smith, but he hasn't been able to string solid performances together in consecutive games very often in his career, so we'll see how he does next Sunday against the Seahawks when the bullets fly for real.
*************************************************************************
Of course, as we said before, Smith couldn't have played as well as he did without the offensive line. I suppose the headline story there was that Jonathan Goodwin has officially won the starting job. Not only was he atop the official depth chart and starting tonight, but he played the whole first half. Adam Snyder checked in during the second quarter, but in relief of right guard Chilo Rachal, not Goodwin. Goodwin played well enough, as did Davis and left guard Mike Iupati, but to me the standouts were Staley and Rachal, who were huge in the run game and as protectors for Smith. Again, I stress that no one was bad, but those two were the best from what I saw. It's true the Chargers didn't blitz much -- yeah I know, you're shocked that a defense coordinated by Greg Manusky didn't take any chances -- but neither did Houston last week and they whipped the 49ers line up and down the field, so yes, this was progress.
*****************************************************************************
Other standouts:

RB - Kendall Hunter.
Wow. Wow. Wow. The kid continues to amaze. Not only did he rush for 57 yards on 11 carries, including 8 for 46 on the first touchdown drive, but he added a five-yard reception, a head-turning 51-yard kick return and a was solid as a blocker. Harbaugh all but admitted he won the backup job to Gore, and while I have all the respect and admiration for Gore's game, I'm just saying right now that the drop-off between him and Hunter would be a lot less dramatic than it would be for a lot of starters on this club and their backups. If Harbaugh is half as smart a coach as I think he is, I think he'll find a way to get the ball in Hunter's hands 6-10 times a game, whether it's as a 3rd-down back, a kick returner, or even in the backfield with Gore in a split back formation. He's too skilled to rot on the bench, waiting for Gore to get dinged up.

WR - Kyle Williams.
Best run-after-catch skills of any receiver on the team, and quite possibly the best slant route runner too. Once Michael Crabtree gets healthy it is assumed that Morgan will be the third receiver, and there's also Ginn to consider as well, but Williams is a guy who might have done enough in the preseason to shoehorn a role for himself. Wouldn't he be someone you'd want on the field to run a hot route if you're positive you're gonna get blitzed?

DE - Demarcus Dobbs.
Not sure who was in charge of the stat sheet, but I can't believe that Dobbs wasn't credited with a single pressure, hurry or QB hit. He consistently drove his man back into the quarterback's face all game long and freed Aldon Smith to have an outside pass rushing lane time and again. Not only am I convinced that Dobbs, an undrafted rookie from Georgia, has made the team, but I could argue that he's a better player than Ricky Jean Francois or even starting DE Ray McDonald, who the team handed a 5-year, $20 million contract to for reasons that escape me.

LB - Aldon Smith. 2.5 sacks, seven tackles, four quarterback hits. Now that's what a 1st-round pick is supposed to be like. The thing that I particularly loved about Smith's performance was that he wasn't a one-trick pony out there. While all of his success up to this point, whether in camp or the preseason opener at New Orleans, had been with his club move on the inside rush; against San Diego he got to the QB both with inside penetration and outside speed. He simply dominated the tackle in front of him (as well he should considering it was a backup). Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio sounded discouraged about Smith after the Houston game, but after this performance the rookie will probably see the field quite a bit in nickel situations against Seattle. I'm not quite ready to agree with TV color man Tim Ryan's prediction of 10 sacks for Smith, but it doesn't sound quite so ludicrous as it did before the game.

LB - NaVorro Bowman. Had the "Hat Trick" in the first quarter, with a sack, a forced fumble and the recovery, when he took down Chargers backup Billy Volek. Blitzing was supposed to be one of the main strengths of Bowman's game coming out of Penn State, but he didn't get to do much of it at all playing for Singletary and Manusky last year. This time he combined well on an overload blitz on the left side with Ahmad Brooks. I'm looking forward to seeing that often this year.

LB - Alex Joseph. We hadn't heard much about Joseph at all through camp and three games, but here's the rare guy who might be able to say actually got something out of the fourth preseason game. Keaton Kristick got hurt and carted off very early (left ankle) and Joseph stepped in and had three tackles and a fumble recovery. Obviously he won't make the roster, but maybe if the Niners are forced to put Kristick on IR, a practice squad slot could open up for the second-year man from Temple.

CB - Chris Culliver.
He started the game slowly and gave up a couple of soft completions, but he got better as the night went along. Unfortunately, the tighter Culliver's coverage got, the more impressive Chargers rookie Scott Tolzien's threw the ball, constantly completing long passes down the right sideline at the expense of the 3rd-rounder from South Carolina. I mean really, a couple of these throws he looped over Tolzien were as good as anybody -- including Chargers starter Philip Rivers -- could've done it; the kind of passes where we can maybe count on one hand the corners in the league who would be able to prevent them from being completions. Credit Culliver for not getting down, not hanging his head and for having a short memory. Tolzien finally hung a ball in the red zone and Culliver was able to get in front of the receiver and make a leaping interception. The kid has the size, speed and all the tools to not just be a starter in the NFL but a good one. He just needs to mature. He's another guy who can make an impact as a kick returner, too.

K David Akers - Made both field goals, including a 49-yarder. Good depth on kickoffs. I think the Niners are set here.
*********************************************************************************
Some clunkers:

QB Colin Kaepernick - Have to start with him, obviously. He finished the preseason with zero touchdowns, five picks, and a 23.0 passer rating, and completed less than half of his passes. On his first pick, he ignored an open Williams, who would've moved the chains, in favor of Scott Long, who was in the end zone but was thoroughly blanketed. Even worse, Kaepernick's "touch" pass was badly underthrown. The second interception was not as much his fault (see below) but still, Ronald Johnson wasn't open at all. After those throws Kaepernick was tentative and afraid to make another mistake and took a couple of coverage sacks. While the kid has a strong arm and can run like a deer -- he continues to remind of a young Randall Cunningham with those long limbs and high hips -- he seems thoroughly flummoxed by the coverages he's seeing out here and he needs to take a step back.

I think it's fair to say that if Alex Smith goes down to injury and the goal is to still win games, that right now Josh McCown -- who played well in the fourth quarter in his 49ers debut -- would be the guy to turn to over Kaepernick. However, if Smith gets benched due to poor performance and the season becomes a lost cause, then yeah, by all means throw the kid in there to take his lumps. Better now than later.

That's not to say that I don't think Kaepernick shouldn't play at all. You just have to use him in low-pressure situations, i.e. blowouts, when the team is up 20 or down 20 in the fourth quarter. Maybe a wildcat package or two where he can use his feet or a two-point conversion play. Remember, Harbaugh sprinkled Alex Luck into games here and there as a freshman. I suspect he may do the same with Kaepernick.

While it's okay to be discouraged with Kaepernick's performance up to this point, I think the important thing to remember is that for the team to win in 2011, it's far more important for rookies like Aldon Smith, Hunter, Culliver, and even fullback Bruce Miller, to play well before you worry about Kaepernick. It's not his time yet. The rules are different for QBs.

WR - Ronald Johnson. Johnson did have a nice 3rd down catch late in the game to move the chains, but in the second quarter he ran a poor slant route, let the corner get inside of him, and couldn't outfight him for the ball, resulting in Kaepernick's second pick. Sure, Kaepernick shouldn't have thrown the ball in the first place, but Johnson, the 6th-round pick from USC, did nothing to help his quarterback out on that play and really I haven't seen any reason at all to justify giving him a roster spot.

SS - C.J. Spillman. He is a good open field tackler to be sure, but Spillman doesn't look like a safety you can risk putting on the field to me and I expect Reggie Smith to quickly gobble up his playing time once he returns from his knee injury. Spillman is a special teams dynamo, but he can't cover anybody. He also took a poor angle on Chargers RB Ryan Mathews' long touchdown run (and wasn't helped any by FS Madieu Williams, who took an even worse one).

CB - Tramaine Brock. Brock allowed too much room underneath and got beat for a few intermediate routes in the first half. I think Tarell Brown has beat him out for the starting/nickel job (depending on Shawntae Spencer's health). Brock will be the fourth or fifth corner and may not dress on game days, depending on how well Culliver is progressing.

CB - Phillip Adams. Another brutal showing in the fourth corner. His ankle just isn't right. He can't cut on it and has zero agility. It's unfortunate because Adams is a likeable guy and a hard worker, and professionally it stinks because he doesn't have practice squad eligibility, but that's life in the NFL. Maybe the 49ers can do right by him and put him on IR, or at the least let him compete again next year when he regains his health, but it's just not gonna happen for Adams right now.
****************************************************************************
Three questions to ponder:

1) Why did Nate Lawrie play ahead of Konrad Reuland?
At first when we saw Lawrie in the game very early as a second tight end, I assumed that Reuland, who was a bit hobbled in practice on Tuesday, wouldn't play. But then later on I saw Reuland in the game. All along I thought it was a lock that Lawrie would win the third TE job from the second that Nate Byham tore his ACL on the second day of camp, but now I'm kind of confused. The veteran Lawrie is the better blocker, for sure, but Lawrie is younger, cheaper and the better blocker. I guess we have to wait for Saturday on this one.

2) Why hasn't Xavier Omon gotten a real chance?
Omon had another good game in the second half on Thursday and I just don't understand why he hasn't gotten any reps with the first or second stringers. For reasons that escape me, Anthony Dixon is a sacred cow here and his roster spot is untouchable. I like Dixon personally, but as a player, I can't figure out anything he does better than Omon besides run on the second level, and that's really such a minimal part of the job of a big back. Omon is the better straight-ahead runner on 3rd-and-short/goal line, he's the better blocker, and he's the far better receiver, as we saw on Thursday. It's logical to presume that the 49ers want to hide and stash Omon on the practice squad, but I think that's a long shot. He's good enough to be a third or second running back on a lot of teams -- including this one -- and I expect somebody to snatch him up.

3) What was up with that hitch to Chris Hogan?
We've waited for two weeks for this guy to play, and he finally checks in, it's not a go route or a fade -- plays where he can take advantage of his speed, height and leaping ability -- but just a simple 0-yard throw where he was expected to juke or out-muscle two guys. I don't get it. Hogan looked pretty stiff on the play anyway, and I don't think he's fully healthy yet. Could be another hard luck story.

4) Why bother with the pretense of naming Parys Haralson a starter?
Let's be real. Whatever mistakes Aldon Smith will make out there in coverage or over-pursuing a play, Haralson would make 75% of those same mistakes as well. He's just a guy. Smith is younger, a whole lot more athletic, and he's got more stamina. Plus, he's got the speed to recover from mistakes. Haralson would be better served as a backup rotation player who can go all out for 20 snaps a game. Even if you start Haralson, it'd be only a matter of time until Smith beats him out, so why wait?

5) Why are we making a big deal about the 53-man roster?
I don't think Saturday's cuts will tell the final story for who makes the 2011 49ers. By my count Harbaugh likes 50 guys, and it could even be as few as 48 if he's fed up by Spencer's injury and down on Brock. I don't think they'll keep guys just to keep guys.

Right now it's easy to assume 3 QBs, 3 RBs, 2 FBs, 5 WRs, 3 TEs, 10 OL, 6 DL, 8 LB, 5 CB, 5 S, and 3 ST. But while those guys would make the best 53 of the people in camp, it's too cookie-cutter and easy.

Here are vets who I think right now would make the team but who Harbaugh wouldn't be too sentimental about replacing:

FB Moran Norris
-- He likes Bruce Miller more, but doesn't know if he can trust him as a rookie.

G/C Tony Wragge -- Wragge hasn't done anything wrong, but they already have two guys who can do what he does (play all three inside spots) in Snyder and rookie Daniel Kilgore and Wragge wouldn't dress on game days unless someone got hurt.

T Mike Person -- The 7th-round pick from Montana State has enjoyed a good preseason, but he's someone you can stash on the practice squad and another guy who wouldn't dress for the games.

CB Shawntae Spencer -- Hasn't proven a thing to this coaching staff, except that he's got a balky hamstring. His 2010 film couldn't have impressed too many folks either, I imagine.

CB Tramaine Brock -- Started strongly in camp, but has gotten worse and worse as we've gotten closer to showtime. Hasn't risen to the occasion.

Alright, that's enough for now. Probably no news until Saturday. So I'll use tomorrow to babble about my ::drum roll:: fantasy team.

Thursday, September 1, 2011

49ers-Chargers Preseason Preview Extravaganzza

The 49ers are a few hours away from their season finale at San Diego, and already it's been determined that their defense will have a great day because Philip Rivers won't play, not even a little bit. So yay, defense. No torching by Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates, no play-action bamboozlement from Philip Rivers, no gashing from LaDainian Tomlinson Ryan Mathews & Mike Tolbert.

You ever notice how their QB is missing an "L" in his first name and their RB is missing a "T" in his last name? What's up with that? Is it some bizarre tribute to Tomlinson? No? Okay then.

Anyway, you don't care about the defense anyway. Nor should you, so don't feel guilty about that. They'll be fine. Well, except for those games where they'll play a quarterback who's good enough to get picked in the first three rounds of your fantasy draft. They'll be totally boned in those.

You worry about the offense. About Alex Douglas Smith and the five galoots in front of him who have been more bullfighters than bulls in the preseason. Well, to be honest they've been what the bulls left in their stalls, but why argue semantics?

Joe Staley needs to quit getting overpowered by nondescript fellows he outweighs by 50 pounds. Anthony Davis needs to take care to remember the snap count. The three guys in the middle -- Mike Iupati, Jonathan Goodwin and Chilo Rachal -- need to play to the whistle instead of just assuming that Smith got rid of the ball on two Mississippi. Also, if Staley and Iupati insist on having miscommunications, it'd be swell if they could impersonate outfielders who collide into each other both going for the ball rather than the ones who stare blankly at one another while it plops to the grass between them. For his part Goodwin seems to have won the starting center job over Adam Snyder solely on the basis of his contract and his past accomplishments, rather than his current play. Him justifying his new-found place atop the depth chart wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

Assuming against all available logic that these five beefy gentlemen can do all that, then maybe, just maybe, Smith can lead the offense to a field goal, thereby doubling the total output of the first string offense through three preseason games and sending 49ers fans hurtling towards the season opener against Seattle full of vim and vinegar.

Does all this sound too cynical and bitter? Well, it should.

The facts are these guys haven't given us much cause for optimism these past nine years, that most of what we've seen in these practice games has been thoroughly discouraging, and that the burden is on them to prove they don't stink. Preseason games mean next to nothing, just ask the 2010 Niners or the 2008 Detroit Lions (both 4-0) or the Indianapolis Colts, who routinely go 1-3 or 0-4 every exhibition season and continue to rip off those 12-4 regular seasons. However, if anything means less than a preseason game, it's the final preseason game, where starters rarely play and it's full on vanilla dreck between the opposing coaching staffs.

In other words, it's a lose-lose situation for the first string offense. Do well, and it doesn't really matter. Do okay, it doesn't really matter. Do bad, against San Diego's second string, and oh boy is that really troubling, in a it-doesn't-really-matter kind of way.

Really, just hope that everyone on both teams comes out unscathed and be done with it.
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Now for the guys to watch, in the magic fairy make-believe land where Jim Harbaugh and his coaching staff haven't already written the 53 names who'll comprise their roster in pencil and 51 of those in ink.

At QB:
Colin Kaepernick will again get a lot of playing time, but I'm actually curious to see if whether Josh McCown will play at all. Or McLeod Bethel-Thompson. Can a team really place a QB on the practice squad who hasn't taken a single preseason snap despite being able-bodied and in camp the whole time?

At RB:
Anthony Davis and Kendall Hunter are dueling for the backup spot. Hunter is clearly the better all-around player. He can block and catch better and may even be more of a threat as a kickoff returner. If any malady should befell Frank Gore, it is Hunter who will get the bulk of the carries. Davis is better suited for short-yardage/goalline duty, and even that only if he remembers he weighs 233 pounds, not 183.

At FB: It's rookie Bruce Miller, who may have a slim lead over Moran Norris. I think Miller's made the team no matter what. He's the superior receiver/athlete/special teams player. He's cheaper and built more like a west coast fullback. Norris has had two straight awful games, so I'm curious how much playing time he'll get in this one.

At WR: The first five spots seem well wrapped up and I doubt there will be a sixth available. In case there is, it will go to either Dominique Zeigler (the best hands), Lance Long (the most consistent), or Ronald Johnson (the most 2011 draft pick). Zeigler just started practicing Aug. 22, but played a bit last week. Long has averaged a whopping eight yards on his five catches. Johnson was a disaster, with two fumbled punts and a flat out drop on third-down against the Houston Texans. I continue to insist that Chris Hogan is better than all three of them, based solely on the evidence of a few camp practices from Aug. 7-9. I'm flaky like that.

At TE: Unless Nate Lawrie turns into Antonio Gates overnight, it's Konrad Reuland's job to lose as the third guy.

At OL: We've covered the top six. Let's also look for what snaps Snyder gets at right guard in relief of Rachal. I've got an inkling the coaching staff isn't as sold on ol' Chilo as they've stated. It's pretty clear who their top ten are, but it's not clear if they'll keep ten, or nine, or even eight. On one hand you have Tony Wragge, who is versatile enough to play all three inside spots, and he's the better player right now, but there's already two guys like him in Snyder and rookie 5th-round pick Daniel Kilgore. On the other you have 7th-round pick Mike Person, the erstwhile fourth tackle. He plays a more useful position, but he can probably be hidden on the practice squad. In either case, neither guy would dress on game days unless there are injuries.

At DL: No questions among the starters unless San Diego runs roughshod over them. As for the backups, it's three guys for two spots. Demarcus Dobbs has played the best, with sacks in each of the past two games. Ian Williams is the most versatile, as he can play the nose or at end. Will Tukuafu has the experience, having spent the past year on the practice squad. The odd man out will likely land on the practice squad.

At LB: Keaton Kristick would have to have the night of his life to prove that he is more valuable as a fourth inside linebacker than Blake Costanzo, who's Special Teams Coordinator Brad Seely's hand-selected VP of Wrecking-Ball Operations.

At CB: One last shot for Tramaine Brock to unseat Tarell Brown as the nickel back. Shawntae Spencer will probably recover from his hamstring injury in time to start by the opener. Harbaugh singled out 3rd-round pick Chris Culliver for his play in the last game, and he can return kicks besides (Culliver, not Harbaugh, who's very slow) so he seems to have the fourth job locked up. Phillip Adams, still not fully recovered from his fractured ankle, will look to show the coaches why they absolutely cannot do without a sixth corner. Good luck on that score.

At S: Five guys are set, but the roles are not. Madieu Williams was signed under the impression he'd have to beat only Reggie Smith for a starting job. Then a few days later the 49ers re-signed Dashon Goldson and have given him all the first-string duty. Williams has played pretty well the last two games, but it seems to matter not. Backup strong safety C.J. Spillman hasn't played well either, so unless something changes he'll be ticketed back to special teams duty exclusively (where he's very good) and Smith will see time in the nickel and dime units. Curtis Taylor, Chris Maragos and 6th-round pick Colin Jones are all, like Spillman, more special teams guys than guys you'd trust to play from scrimmage, and they're all likely fighting for practice squad jobs.

Injuries:
Michael Crabtree (left foot) is out, making him a perfect oh-for-12 in preseason games. Shawntae Spencer (hamstring) and Reggie Smith (knee) are both very doubtful. Konrad Reuland was limping a bit on Tuesday, so he's questionable. Vernon Davis missed Tuesday's practice for a private matter, but he's fine and good to go. Overall, this is a ridiculously healthy team.

Bubble Guys Without Practice Squad Eligibility: FB Moran Norris, WR Dominique Zeigler, TE Nate Lawrie, G/C Tony Wragge, CB Phillip Adams.

Bubble Guys With Practice Squad Eligibility: QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson, RB Xavier Omon, FB Bruce Miller, FB Jack Corcoran, WR Lance Long, WR Chris Hogan, WR Roland Johnson, T Mike Person, DE Will Tukuafu, DE Demarcus Dobbs, NT Ian Williams, LB Keaton Kristick, CB Tramaine Brock, S Colin Jones, S Curtis Taylor and S Chris Maragos.