Friday, September 2, 2011

49ers-Chargers Review: I Smell Championship

Final Score: 49ers 20, Chargers 17. Preseason Record: 2-2

As much significance as you can attach to a preseason game, the final one, no less, the 49ers need a good showing in San Diego, just to soothe their psyches, and those of coach Jim Harbaugh, quarterback Alex Smith, the starting offensive linemen, and of course their legions of fans who are tired of saying "This is the year of the great where our offense won't be a national joke."

So in that regard, mission accomplished.

Not only did Smith lead the offense to touchdowns on both of his series (after not being able to lead one such drive in the first three games), but he did it, to my surprise, against the first-string Chargers defense, who I didn't expect to play. Well, okay, it was mostly the first string defense, minus their nose tackle and two outside linebackers. Still, that takes away more from the accomplishments of tackles Joe Staley and Anthony Davis more than Smith himself.

Smith remains what he's always been, a guy that can win games as long as everyone around him does their jobs to the best of their ability. Without a good pass-blocking line, he's toast. You put him in constant 3rd-and-longs, he's toast. You have receivers who drop passes or linemen who take holding penalties, he's toast. Yes, Smith can succeed when everything is ideal, but A) it rarely is in the NFL, particularly with this team and B) how many QBs couldn't succeed in those situations?

It's true that Smith didn't have to face San Diego's best pass rushers, but in his defense he marched the team -- with lots of help from Kendall Hunter -- without the benefit of Frank Gore, Vernon Davis or Michael Crabtree, so that's something. I'm not sure what, but it's something.

Smith did have a couple of hairy moments. Ex-49er Travis LaBoy deflected one pass when he overpowered Hunter on a delayed rush, and it was precisely the kind of ball that Smith has seen carom into the hands of defenders so many times during his career. This time it bounced harmlessly to the turf. On third-down pass he drilled into Ted Ginn in between extremely tight coverage. Ginn, who'll never be confused for a sure-handed receiver had the ball bounce off his hands initially, but concentrated enough to secure it in midair to convert the first down. Finally, Smith had a 3rd-and-4 pass on a roll out to Joshua Morgan that was a bit low. Morgan had to adjust to catch it and the slight delay impaired his ability to get the ball in the end zone. Sure, in this case it wasn't a goal-to-go situation and Morgan still gained enough to make it 1st-and-goal from the 1, but most of the time in that spot it would be a 3rd-and-goal, and such a mistake would result in either a field goal or a risky 4th-and-goal play (see the San Diego game last season for further reference).

Overall it was a game to build on for Smith, but he hasn't been able to string solid performances together in consecutive games very often in his career, so we'll see how he does next Sunday against the Seahawks when the bullets fly for real.
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Of course, as we said before, Smith couldn't have played as well as he did without the offensive line. I suppose the headline story there was that Jonathan Goodwin has officially won the starting job. Not only was he atop the official depth chart and starting tonight, but he played the whole first half. Adam Snyder checked in during the second quarter, but in relief of right guard Chilo Rachal, not Goodwin. Goodwin played well enough, as did Davis and left guard Mike Iupati, but to me the standouts were Staley and Rachal, who were huge in the run game and as protectors for Smith. Again, I stress that no one was bad, but those two were the best from what I saw. It's true the Chargers didn't blitz much -- yeah I know, you're shocked that a defense coordinated by Greg Manusky didn't take any chances -- but neither did Houston last week and they whipped the 49ers line up and down the field, so yes, this was progress.
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Other standouts:

RB - Kendall Hunter.
Wow. Wow. Wow. The kid continues to amaze. Not only did he rush for 57 yards on 11 carries, including 8 for 46 on the first touchdown drive, but he added a five-yard reception, a head-turning 51-yard kick return and a was solid as a blocker. Harbaugh all but admitted he won the backup job to Gore, and while I have all the respect and admiration for Gore's game, I'm just saying right now that the drop-off between him and Hunter would be a lot less dramatic than it would be for a lot of starters on this club and their backups. If Harbaugh is half as smart a coach as I think he is, I think he'll find a way to get the ball in Hunter's hands 6-10 times a game, whether it's as a 3rd-down back, a kick returner, or even in the backfield with Gore in a split back formation. He's too skilled to rot on the bench, waiting for Gore to get dinged up.

WR - Kyle Williams.
Best run-after-catch skills of any receiver on the team, and quite possibly the best slant route runner too. Once Michael Crabtree gets healthy it is assumed that Morgan will be the third receiver, and there's also Ginn to consider as well, but Williams is a guy who might have done enough in the preseason to shoehorn a role for himself. Wouldn't he be someone you'd want on the field to run a hot route if you're positive you're gonna get blitzed?

DE - Demarcus Dobbs.
Not sure who was in charge of the stat sheet, but I can't believe that Dobbs wasn't credited with a single pressure, hurry or QB hit. He consistently drove his man back into the quarterback's face all game long and freed Aldon Smith to have an outside pass rushing lane time and again. Not only am I convinced that Dobbs, an undrafted rookie from Georgia, has made the team, but I could argue that he's a better player than Ricky Jean Francois or even starting DE Ray McDonald, who the team handed a 5-year, $20 million contract to for reasons that escape me.

LB - Aldon Smith. 2.5 sacks, seven tackles, four quarterback hits. Now that's what a 1st-round pick is supposed to be like. The thing that I particularly loved about Smith's performance was that he wasn't a one-trick pony out there. While all of his success up to this point, whether in camp or the preseason opener at New Orleans, had been with his club move on the inside rush; against San Diego he got to the QB both with inside penetration and outside speed. He simply dominated the tackle in front of him (as well he should considering it was a backup). Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio sounded discouraged about Smith after the Houston game, but after this performance the rookie will probably see the field quite a bit in nickel situations against Seattle. I'm not quite ready to agree with TV color man Tim Ryan's prediction of 10 sacks for Smith, but it doesn't sound quite so ludicrous as it did before the game.

LB - NaVorro Bowman. Had the "Hat Trick" in the first quarter, with a sack, a forced fumble and the recovery, when he took down Chargers backup Billy Volek. Blitzing was supposed to be one of the main strengths of Bowman's game coming out of Penn State, but he didn't get to do much of it at all playing for Singletary and Manusky last year. This time he combined well on an overload blitz on the left side with Ahmad Brooks. I'm looking forward to seeing that often this year.

LB - Alex Joseph. We hadn't heard much about Joseph at all through camp and three games, but here's the rare guy who might be able to say actually got something out of the fourth preseason game. Keaton Kristick got hurt and carted off very early (left ankle) and Joseph stepped in and had three tackles and a fumble recovery. Obviously he won't make the roster, but maybe if the Niners are forced to put Kristick on IR, a practice squad slot could open up for the second-year man from Temple.

CB - Chris Culliver.
He started the game slowly and gave up a couple of soft completions, but he got better as the night went along. Unfortunately, the tighter Culliver's coverage got, the more impressive Chargers rookie Scott Tolzien's threw the ball, constantly completing long passes down the right sideline at the expense of the 3rd-rounder from South Carolina. I mean really, a couple of these throws he looped over Tolzien were as good as anybody -- including Chargers starter Philip Rivers -- could've done it; the kind of passes where we can maybe count on one hand the corners in the league who would be able to prevent them from being completions. Credit Culliver for not getting down, not hanging his head and for having a short memory. Tolzien finally hung a ball in the red zone and Culliver was able to get in front of the receiver and make a leaping interception. The kid has the size, speed and all the tools to not just be a starter in the NFL but a good one. He just needs to mature. He's another guy who can make an impact as a kick returner, too.

K David Akers - Made both field goals, including a 49-yarder. Good depth on kickoffs. I think the Niners are set here.
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Some clunkers:

QB Colin Kaepernick - Have to start with him, obviously. He finished the preseason with zero touchdowns, five picks, and a 23.0 passer rating, and completed less than half of his passes. On his first pick, he ignored an open Williams, who would've moved the chains, in favor of Scott Long, who was in the end zone but was thoroughly blanketed. Even worse, Kaepernick's "touch" pass was badly underthrown. The second interception was not as much his fault (see below) but still, Ronald Johnson wasn't open at all. After those throws Kaepernick was tentative and afraid to make another mistake and took a couple of coverage sacks. While the kid has a strong arm and can run like a deer -- he continues to remind of a young Randall Cunningham with those long limbs and high hips -- he seems thoroughly flummoxed by the coverages he's seeing out here and he needs to take a step back.

I think it's fair to say that if Alex Smith goes down to injury and the goal is to still win games, that right now Josh McCown -- who played well in the fourth quarter in his 49ers debut -- would be the guy to turn to over Kaepernick. However, if Smith gets benched due to poor performance and the season becomes a lost cause, then yeah, by all means throw the kid in there to take his lumps. Better now than later.

That's not to say that I don't think Kaepernick shouldn't play at all. You just have to use him in low-pressure situations, i.e. blowouts, when the team is up 20 or down 20 in the fourth quarter. Maybe a wildcat package or two where he can use his feet or a two-point conversion play. Remember, Harbaugh sprinkled Alex Luck into games here and there as a freshman. I suspect he may do the same with Kaepernick.

While it's okay to be discouraged with Kaepernick's performance up to this point, I think the important thing to remember is that for the team to win in 2011, it's far more important for rookies like Aldon Smith, Hunter, Culliver, and even fullback Bruce Miller, to play well before you worry about Kaepernick. It's not his time yet. The rules are different for QBs.

WR - Ronald Johnson. Johnson did have a nice 3rd down catch late in the game to move the chains, but in the second quarter he ran a poor slant route, let the corner get inside of him, and couldn't outfight him for the ball, resulting in Kaepernick's second pick. Sure, Kaepernick shouldn't have thrown the ball in the first place, but Johnson, the 6th-round pick from USC, did nothing to help his quarterback out on that play and really I haven't seen any reason at all to justify giving him a roster spot.

SS - C.J. Spillman. He is a good open field tackler to be sure, but Spillman doesn't look like a safety you can risk putting on the field to me and I expect Reggie Smith to quickly gobble up his playing time once he returns from his knee injury. Spillman is a special teams dynamo, but he can't cover anybody. He also took a poor angle on Chargers RB Ryan Mathews' long touchdown run (and wasn't helped any by FS Madieu Williams, who took an even worse one).

CB - Tramaine Brock. Brock allowed too much room underneath and got beat for a few intermediate routes in the first half. I think Tarell Brown has beat him out for the starting/nickel job (depending on Shawntae Spencer's health). Brock will be the fourth or fifth corner and may not dress on game days, depending on how well Culliver is progressing.

CB - Phillip Adams. Another brutal showing in the fourth corner. His ankle just isn't right. He can't cut on it and has zero agility. It's unfortunate because Adams is a likeable guy and a hard worker, and professionally it stinks because he doesn't have practice squad eligibility, but that's life in the NFL. Maybe the 49ers can do right by him and put him on IR, or at the least let him compete again next year when he regains his health, but it's just not gonna happen for Adams right now.
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Three questions to ponder:

1) Why did Nate Lawrie play ahead of Konrad Reuland?
At first when we saw Lawrie in the game very early as a second tight end, I assumed that Reuland, who was a bit hobbled in practice on Tuesday, wouldn't play. But then later on I saw Reuland in the game. All along I thought it was a lock that Lawrie would win the third TE job from the second that Nate Byham tore his ACL on the second day of camp, but now I'm kind of confused. The veteran Lawrie is the better blocker, for sure, but Lawrie is younger, cheaper and the better blocker. I guess we have to wait for Saturday on this one.

2) Why hasn't Xavier Omon gotten a real chance?
Omon had another good game in the second half on Thursday and I just don't understand why he hasn't gotten any reps with the first or second stringers. For reasons that escape me, Anthony Dixon is a sacred cow here and his roster spot is untouchable. I like Dixon personally, but as a player, I can't figure out anything he does better than Omon besides run on the second level, and that's really such a minimal part of the job of a big back. Omon is the better straight-ahead runner on 3rd-and-short/goal line, he's the better blocker, and he's the far better receiver, as we saw on Thursday. It's logical to presume that the 49ers want to hide and stash Omon on the practice squad, but I think that's a long shot. He's good enough to be a third or second running back on a lot of teams -- including this one -- and I expect somebody to snatch him up.

3) What was up with that hitch to Chris Hogan?
We've waited for two weeks for this guy to play, and he finally checks in, it's not a go route or a fade -- plays where he can take advantage of his speed, height and leaping ability -- but just a simple 0-yard throw where he was expected to juke or out-muscle two guys. I don't get it. Hogan looked pretty stiff on the play anyway, and I don't think he's fully healthy yet. Could be another hard luck story.

4) Why bother with the pretense of naming Parys Haralson a starter?
Let's be real. Whatever mistakes Aldon Smith will make out there in coverage or over-pursuing a play, Haralson would make 75% of those same mistakes as well. He's just a guy. Smith is younger, a whole lot more athletic, and he's got more stamina. Plus, he's got the speed to recover from mistakes. Haralson would be better served as a backup rotation player who can go all out for 20 snaps a game. Even if you start Haralson, it'd be only a matter of time until Smith beats him out, so why wait?

5) Why are we making a big deal about the 53-man roster?
I don't think Saturday's cuts will tell the final story for who makes the 2011 49ers. By my count Harbaugh likes 50 guys, and it could even be as few as 48 if he's fed up by Spencer's injury and down on Brock. I don't think they'll keep guys just to keep guys.

Right now it's easy to assume 3 QBs, 3 RBs, 2 FBs, 5 WRs, 3 TEs, 10 OL, 6 DL, 8 LB, 5 CB, 5 S, and 3 ST. But while those guys would make the best 53 of the people in camp, it's too cookie-cutter and easy.

Here are vets who I think right now would make the team but who Harbaugh wouldn't be too sentimental about replacing:

FB Moran Norris
-- He likes Bruce Miller more, but doesn't know if he can trust him as a rookie.

G/C Tony Wragge -- Wragge hasn't done anything wrong, but they already have two guys who can do what he does (play all three inside spots) in Snyder and rookie Daniel Kilgore and Wragge wouldn't dress on game days unless someone got hurt.

T Mike Person -- The 7th-round pick from Montana State has enjoyed a good preseason, but he's someone you can stash on the practice squad and another guy who wouldn't dress for the games.

CB Shawntae Spencer -- Hasn't proven a thing to this coaching staff, except that he's got a balky hamstring. His 2010 film couldn't have impressed too many folks either, I imagine.

CB Tramaine Brock -- Started strongly in camp, but has gotten worse and worse as we've gotten closer to showtime. Hasn't risen to the occasion.

Alright, that's enough for now. Probably no news until Saturday. So I'll use tomorrow to babble about my ::drum roll:: fantasy team.

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