Remember the good ol' days when the New Orleans Saints were in the NFC West? Until 2002, they were and the 49ers played them twice a year every season. In fact, back in the 90's when they were coached by Jim Mora Sr., the Saints were often the biggest threats to San Francisco's division supremacy. For those of you who would like to forget the past eight seasons -- and who would blame you? -- it's very easy to harken back to a simpler time when annual road trips to places like The Superdome and Atlanta's Fulton County Stadium were the norm for your locals.
So it strikes me as a bit of a happy coincidence that here we are in 2011 and once again, the squad breathing down the 49ers collective necks, and really the ones whose results they're taking note of on the scoreboard, are those same Saints, their real NFC West rivals who just happen to not technically be in the division any longer.
The real NFC West, as you've no doubt noticed, is about as imposing as Group A of the recently announced Euro 2012 draw (Russia, Czech Republic, Greece and host Poland). While the 49ers have yet to officially clinch it -- a win on Sunday wraps it up -- it's been done and dusted since mid-October. Whatever claptrap the Niners coaches and players offer you about rivalry games and not looking past the Arizona Cardinals of the world is a bunch of politically correct hooey. Their real rivals are Saints, in all their Drew Brees-ian, Darren Sproles-ish, Jimmy Graham-esque and Sean Payton-ish glory.
At 8-3 the Saints are 1.5 games behind your 49ers in the battle for the No. 2 seed. Because all three of their losses have come against conference opponents (vs. just one NFC loss for the Niners), San Francisco has the tie-breaker on them, and would have to drop at least two of their final five games to relinquish their first round bye. Still, the Saints have been streaking of late and they seem to have everyone's attention. Alex Smith admitted that he watched their Monday night curb-stomping of the New York Giants, while a certain beat reporter who will go unnamed referenced Sproles in a question to 49ers skipper Jim Harbaugh when he meant to say Steven Jackson, the St. Louis Rams featured runner, instead. Harbaugh, who prefers to stay on autopilot during his media obligations, didn't skip a beat in answering the question anyway.
As it stands, a second-round playoff matchup between the 49ers and Saints seems virtually inevitable. New Orleans is 5-0 at home and just crushing people with an offense that's unstoppable at home. Too much speed from Graham and Sproles, too much precision from Brees, too much wizardry from Payton. On the road they haven't been nearly as consistent, with Brees in particular being far more forthcoming with the turnovers. Though the 49ers may well be underdogs either way, they would have a far better chance of overcoming the Saints at home and with a week of rest than vice versa.
And that, ladies and germs, is the best -- really the only -- reason for Niners to take the rest of their schedule, beginning with Sunday's tilt with the downtrodden 2-9 Rams, at all seriously. St. Louis may have a victory over the Saints to their credit, but precious little else has gone right for them these past few years. To put it in perspective, with a win on Sunday Harbaugh would tie Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo on the career win list with 10 despite the latter's 32-game head start.
St. Louis has been decimated by injuries, particularly at cornerback and along the offensive line, and they weren't strong at either of those positions to begin with. Their safeties are slow. Their quarterbacks have rags for arms. Sophomore Sam Bradford has been such a disappointment that it seems to matter little if he plays on his gimpy ankle (didn't practice on Thursday, "very limited" according to Spagnuolo on Friday) or if A.J. Feeley gets the nod instead. Jackson is above average, but the 49ers defense has chewed up and spat out far better than him and ex-Niner Brandon Lloyd is their lone playmaker. Cover him with two guys and poof, he's a rumor.
Defensively the Rams have a formidable front four, but one that like Philadelphia and Detroit, that's hellbent on getting to the quarterback at all cost -- leading sack man Chris Long has missed practice all week with an ankle injury but said he's gonna play -- to the point of ignoring their running game responsibilities completely. They're dead last against the rush, allowing 159 yards a game and over five a pop. Even their pass defense, which 49ers offensive Greg Roman charitably described as "unique," gambles so recklessly that they've been prone to big plays.
"From a coverage and pressure standpoint, I’d say when they first started developing this system, they were willing to take more what people would call risks in coverage than other teams," Roman said. "They would add a guy to the blitz, still play a version of zone coverage and basically burn a zone, as we say, vacate a zone to add another guy to the blitz. Basically, a lot of their blitzes just take the old playbooks and shred them when it comes to protections and rules."
Roman added, "They’ve done a phenomenal job," a line once uttered by George W. Bush to former FEMA Director Michael Brown during the Katrina disaster, to tie this back to the Saints in our typically morbid fashion. If ever the 49ers will have a pass play over 50 yards (their season-long is 44, to running back Kendall Hunter at Philadelphia, naturally), Sunday should be the game.
A record that's an even safer record to be broken, however, is the franchise's all-time rushing mark of 7,344 yards, which is currently held by late Hall-of-Famer Joe "The Jet" Perry. Frank Gore is but 21 yards away from passing Perry and it's sure to be the secondary story in your Monday game recap after the pomp and circumstance of the 49ers division title clinching. Sure, Spagnuolo could choose to put 11 in the box and let Smith throw for 13 uncovered touchdowns, and as oddly entertaining as that would be, I'm guessing he'll play it more straight up and Gore will be taking a bow midway through the first quarter.
The game itself should be decided not too long after that, giving all involved a chance to drive home early and check out that Lions-Saints game and count their blessings that they're no longer in the division.
Picks (already 0-1 this week!)
Indianapolis at New England (-21): I probably would've picked the Pats to cover if the line was 27. Then again, I'm a terrible gambler. Patriots 45, Colts 3.
Tennessee at Buffalo (-3): If you have any doubts about how little anyone trusts the Titans, here you go. They're a desperate bunch, hanging on for dear life at a playoff bid, and they're underdogs against a team that's lost four straight. I should know better, but I'm picking them. Titans 20, Bills 13
Kansas City at Chicago (-7): The first offensive coordinator who calls a pass play before somebody has either a 14 point deficit or is facing a 3rd-and-15 should be fired. Bears 17, Chiefs 6
Oakland at Miami (-3): The Raiders are just the kind of no-nonsense running team that won't let a frisky Dolphins bunch rattle them on the road. Or so I'm telling myself. Raiders 27, Dolphins 23
Denver at Minnesota (-1): A battle of the quarterbacking Christians. Sadly, I think Tim Tebow will run for more yards than Toby Gerhart. Broncos 13, Vikings 10
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-7): The Bengals come into this one a lot healthier than Pittsburgh, so that line seems too high to me. I'm picking an upset, mainly because it's not like I'm wagering money on these things. Bengals 24, Steelers 23
Carolina at Tampa Bay (-3): Over/under Cam Newton turnovers is at 3.5. I'm taking the over, and thus a Bucs win that does them not a lick of good. Buccaneers 27, Panthers 20
NY Jets at Washington (+3): And here come the Jets, steamrolling into January, ready for their annual two road wins and crushing AFC title game loss.* Jets 20, Redskins 13 *May not happen.
Atlanta at Houston (+3): The Texans signed Jake Delhomme, which means for the first time in recorded history a stadium full of fans will be thinking, "I hope T.J. Yates doesn't get hurt." Falcons might put all 11 in the box. Falcons 17, Texans 13
Baltimore at Cleveland (+7): I think the Ravens are the best team in the AFC and I couldn't trust them any less to beat the Browns. In fact, I'll consider it a sign of growth and maturity if they win the game at all. Ravens 17, Browns 16
St. Louis at San Francisco (-14): How the heck is an offense struggling as badly as the 49ers getting 14? That's nuts. That's absolutely asinine. Ludicrous on every conceivable level. 49ers 27, Rams 10
Green Bay at NY Giants (+7): Mayhaps I was too high on the Giants earlier in the season. I tend to overvalue NFC East teams that are actually based in the east. My new position, as bold as it may be, is that the Packers are pretty good. Packers 44, Giants 27
Dallas at Arizona (+5): Someday, perhaps a month from now, the Cowboys will have to face an NFL team instead of this steady claptrap of Division I-AA gutter runoff. Oh what a glorious afternoon that will be for all of us. Cowboys 30, Cardinals 16
Detroit at New Orleans (-9): Lions fans thought they saw a stomping last game, wait until Drew Brees and the fellas get through with 'em. Saints 45, Lions 21
San Diego at Jacksonville (+3): I would rather watch an NBA preseason game between the Bobcats and the Pacers. I would rather watch a hockey game between Columbus and Florida. I might even rather watch a college basketball game. And about now I remember that both of my fantasy running backs are prominently involved in this one. Goddammit. Chargers 8, Jaguars 4
Power Poll
1. Green Bay (11-0)
2. Baltimore (8-3)
3. Pittsburgh (8-3)
4. San Francisco (9-2)
5. New Orleans (8-3)
6. New England (8-3)
7. Houston (8-3)
8. Cincinnati (7-4)
9. Dallas (7-4)
10. Oakland (7-4)
11. Chicago (7-4)
12. Atlanta (7-4)
13. Detroit (7-4)
14. New York Giants (6-5)
15. New York Jets (6-5)
16. Tennessee (6-5)
17. Denver (6-5)
18. Seattle (5-7)
19. Tampa Bay (4-7)
20. Miami (3-8)
21. Washington (4-7)
22. Buffalo (5-6)
23. Cleveland (4-7)
24. Arizona (4-7)
25. Carolina (3-8)
26. San Diego (4-7)
27. Jacksonville (3-8)
28. St. Louis (2-9)
29. Minnesota (2-9)
30. Kansas City (4-7)
31. Indianapolis (0-11)
8,415,913. Philadelphia (4-8)
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