Will Sunday be the most meaningful match-up between your plucky San Francisco 49ers and the woebegone Cincinnati Bengals? Historically, not so much. To the principals involved, however, far more so.
While it seems silly to declare any game in Week 3 a "must-win" a loss here would be quite perilous for the 49ers indeed. They already upchucked a ten point fourth quarter lead to lose in dispiriting fashion to the Cowboys. If they drop this one too, that would qualify what we in the biz call "a losing streak."
They're at Philadelphia next week (they'll spend the time in between the two games at Youngstown, Ohio, the hometown of the DeBartolo family, where the players will be reminded a time or twelve that this organization used to win games far more often under the previous owner), then home against a Tampa Bay team that walloped 'em 21-0 at the 'Stick last season, and then on the road against a Lions squad that just scored another touchdown against the Chiefs while you were reading this sentence.
Without a dub against the Bengals, where exactly would the losing streak end? Sure, 1-5 would only have them a game or so out of contention in the NFC Worst (see what I did there?), but still it just looks so bad in print. 1-5. It makes your lips curl in disgust just looking at it, right?
Here's the bad news, dear gentle reader. The 49ers have been downright atrocious on the road the past two seasons, especially in 10 a.m. PST starts. Last year their first such game was at Kansas City. The whole week the Niners, who were 0-2 at the time, talked about how much they needed the game and the Chiefs certainly didn't look like world beaters. San Francisco got trounced 31-10, with their touchdown coming on the final play of the game, because doggone it we play to the final whistle, that's why. Afterward, the coaching staff admitted that they worked the players too hard in practice leading up to the game and their charges didn't have their legs for the game.
Excuses were made for 10 a.m. losses at Atlanta (Nate Clements' fumble); at Carolina (Alex Smith got hurt and David Carr was David Carr); at Green Bay (they're way better than us) and St. Louis (coach started the wrong Smith).
The only early start they won was against the Broncos, and that was a special circumstance in that A) it was a neutral site game at London where the fans were clearly behind them and B) they flew to England directly from Carolina and had time to adjust their body clocks.
In 2009 the 49ers lost early road games, albeit in close, heartbreaking fashion to Minnesota, Houston and Indianapolis and the more traditional way you've become begrudgingly accustomed to at Green Bay and Philly. Their lone road win came in a meaningless Week 17 game at St. Louis, which landed the Rams Sam Bradford in the following draft.
So now they're three point dogs against a Bengals outfit that's starting a rookie quarterback in Andy Dalton, who the 49ers would've picked in the draft had Cincinnati chosen Colin Kaepernick instead.
Dalton, who NFL Films analyst Greg Cosell characterized as a quarterback who "in many ways what (Alex) Smith is not," has not had a turnover in two games and has been far more impressive than expected. "He has very good pocket poise, very good command," Cosell noted. "(He) does not have a big arm, but he sort of makes up for it with his sense of timing and anticipation – two things that Alex Smith doesn’t do very well... He’s very decisive. He knows where to go with the football. The ball comes out quick."
It simply won't do for the 49ers to have Dalton show up Smith while Kaepernick, who looked completely unprepared for this level, watches helplessly from the bench. Then again, Kaepernick may have to check in, whether he's ready or not. It was revealed on Wednesday -- on an emailed practice injury report that pinged my inbox at 4:38 p.m. -- that Smith suffered a concussion against Dallas, presumably on a second quarter sack by Anthony Spencer. It would've been nice for the team to mention it during the interview sessions with Smith and Jim Harbaugh hours before, but that's SOP at 49ers land, where they've always been at war with Eurasia.
Smith said that he knew something was off, but that he felt he could play through it and that he didn't tell anyone until after the game. He went through all the testing and protocols at Stanford Hospital and was cleared to practice by Wednesday. It will be interesting to see what kind of protection he gets and the hits he takes on Sunday, being protected by a spotty offensive line that has a rep for being a step slow on the snap count in road games.
However, there is cause for some optimism.
Despite Dalton's hot start, the Bengals remain a run-first offense. Cedric Benson was suspended for three games by the league for off-season shenanigans, but he will appeal and play on Sunday. Good. The one thing the 49ers do really well is shut down the run. Every time Dalton hands off the ball, whether it's to Benson, or his backup Bernard Scott, or to Ickey Woods for that matter, he's doing the Niners a favor.
Conversely, the Bengals are only 16th in the league at stopping the run through two weeks, which might offer Frank Gore a crack of hope that he'll have more than a crack of running room on Sunday. It should also help Gore -- though he'd never admit it -- that fullback Moran Norris will be out with a fibula injury. The offense will have for more success running the ball if they spread the Bengals out and run draws rather than using seven offensive linemen, two tight ends and a fullback like something out of a Knute Rockne training video.
Another advantage the 49ers will have is getting to face guys like Nate Clements and Manny Lawson, and perhaps, if they ask really nicely, Taylor Mays. The Niners castoffs are still getting used to playing in a 4-3 scheme, and the early reviews haven't been good. Lawson has totaled three tackles while making no plays of note while Clements was toasted all game long by the immortal Eric Decker last week at Denver. Smith won't have Braylon Edwards' services on Sunday (out a minimum of three weeks with a knee injury), but he will get Michael Crabtree back, so that should be a wash.
The Bengals will be without pass-rusher Dontay Moch and two of their top three wideouts. Jordan Shipley tore his ACL against the Broncos and Jerome Simpson's availability looks hazy now that the police confiscated 8.5 pounds of marijuana from his Kentucky home (2.5 pounds shipped from California and another six pounds that was already on site). Police allegedly found distribution materials in the joint as well, including baggies and scales, so apparently Simpson was setting up a nice little side business for himself. Now those plans have gone up in smoke. Dalton's Super Bowl hopes have taken a hit now that his receiving corps has gone to pot, unless, that is, it turns out that Andre Caldwell has been laying in the weeds all along. Marijuana.
Must-win game? No. However, these are the kinds of games teams win if they're serious about winning divisions. They've got to get at least eight to sneak into the postseason and they only play six against their division rivals, so do the math. Besides, 1 p.m. is far too early to have your entire Sunday ruined and there might not be any "medicine" left now that Jerome Simpson bought it all.
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Other NFL thoughts, from a man who went 0-15-1 vs. the spread last week. Seriously, this happened. I feel like the sportsbooks at Vegas should put it on some sort of commemorative plaque or at least send me a T-shirt or something. Picking the line by its very nature is a 50/50 proposition and I'm just as mathematically likely to go 15-0-1 next week, except for the fact that A) I will never, EVER, go 15-0-1 and B) if I did, without betting a penny on the games, I'd probably take a flying header off the press box.
NY Giants at Philadelphia (-6): It's been announced that Michael Vick is playing, and that's good enough for me against a battered Giants defense. For all the heat his offensive line has taken, it's worth mentioning that Vick wasn't sacked at all against Atlanta and that his concussion came on a fluke play when he banged his head against his lineman's leg. Unless the Giants run for 200 yards, Philly wins fairly easily in their home opener. Eagles 30, Giants 20. **THREE POINT SPECIAL**
San Francisco at Cincinnati (-3): Simply put if Harbaugh is at all a better coach than Mike Singletary, the Niners find a way to pull this one out. 49ers 23, Bengals 17.
Detroit at Minnesota (+4): Good lord, Calvin Johnson might turn Nate Burleson into a Pro Bowler this year and even rookie Titus Young contributed to last week's throttling of the Chiefs. No one is running harder than Adrian Peterson, but I think Donovan McNabb is shot and they don't have much deep speed to hurt the Lions. Lions 26, Vikings 20.
New England at Buffalo (+9): The Bills can run it and throw it and the Patriots secondary is suffering in a bad way (they signed ex-49er Phillip Adams this week). I'm calling the upset because Bill Belichick likes to blow one against a soft team early in the year to get his guys' attention for the rest of the year. Bills 34, Patriots 31.
Miami at Cleveland (-3): Ugh. The Dolphins, oddly enough, have been better on the road the past couple years, the Browns have no receivers and Peyton Hillis is not feeling well. Despite all of that, I'm done with Miami after they let me down last week against the Texans. Browns 20, Dolphins 13.
Denver at Tennessee (-7): Ugh, part deux. The league might prefer if Kenny Britt quietly went away, but the guy is good. Really, really good. Chris Johnson, meanwhile, is running less convincingly than Javon Ringer. The Titans had a great pass rush against Baltimore last week. Titans 27, Broncos 17.
Houston at New Orleans (-4): The Texans are quietly morphing into a run-first team before our very eyes, and why not with Arian Foster and Ben Tate (who's like a poor man's Adrian Peterson)? I'm not about to bet against the Saints at home again though after the way they destroyed Jay Cutler. Saints 34, Texans 20. **FIVE POINT SPECIAL**
Jacksonville at Carolina (-4): A previously unwatchable game gets a bit of intrigue with the word that Blaine Gabbert will be making his first start for the Jaguars. The Panthers should be running more, but it's like they've decided to forgo wins and losses and strategy and have dedicated the season to getting Newton as many reps as possible for when they'll try in 2012. Panthers 26, Jaguars 13. **TWO POINT SPECIAL**
NY Jets at Oakland (+4): Raiders offense looked very impressive last week at Buffalo, especially without Jacoby Ford or Kevin Boss, but now they're gonna face somebody who's going to make them work. Look for the Jets to get their running game going this week. Jets 20, Raiders 9.
Baltimore at St. Louis (+4): The Ravens don't often play two stinkers in a row and the Rams have some fundamental problems on both sides of the ball. I don't know how they stop Ray Rice on that turf. Ravens 27, Rams 20.
Kansas City at San Diego (-15): Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, Mike Tolbert, Ryan Mathews against a Chiefs defense that has allowed 89 points in two games. Yikes. Philip Rivers is due for a clean game, right? Chargers 41, Chiefs 13.
Green Bay at Chicago (+4): What's with all these four point lines? For whatever reason the Bears seem to be able to slow down Aaron Rodgers and co. better than anyone else can, but how can anyone possibly trust their offense line to keep Cutler upright? With all the faces Cutler makes on the field and on the sidelines, why would they want to? Packers 23, Bears 13.
Arizona at Seattle (+4): Here's my theory: I don't think Seattle is trying. Lets see if I'm right. Cardinals 27, Seahawks 17.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-1): No one who watched that game seriously thinks the Falcons would come within 14 points of Philly if they met in the playoffs, right? Impressive comeback from Josh Freeman last week at Minnesota, more so because his primary receiver was Preston Parker. Buccaneers 27, Falcons 20.
Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (+11): 11 points is a lot for a home dog and I don't think the Steelers are built for two straight blowouts. A humble road win against an undermanned opponent for the defending AFC Champs, where they'll run the ball a lot and keep the fancy stuff in their back pockets. Steelers 23, Colts 14.
Washington at Dallas (even): Tony Romo is likely playing, though he shouldn't. Jon Kitna would be a whole lot better with a week to prepare, knowing he's going to play, than he was last week when he was just thrown in there. It's Dallas' home opener and I'm not quite ready to take the Redskins seriously. They pull this game out, and I'm aboard. Cowboys 27, Redskins 10. **FOUR POINT SPECIAL**
Week 2 Record: 8-8
Total Record: 19-13
Week 2 Vs. Spread: 0-15-1
Total Vs. Spread: 8-22-2
Week 2 +/- Points (All games count as one point unless otherwise specified): -25
Total +/- Points: -30
Hey, I know you don't get many comments on this blog, but people do read them and enjoy you work - like myself. Your tweets are a bit snarky, but I have to admit you do good work and the blog posts are on point with good insights. Now, don't let it go to your head, but keep up the good work.
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