The 49ers, fresh off losses in two of their past three games, are facing their first real adversity of the season. For the first time, there's the sense in the locker room that doubt is starting to creep in and that perhaps there are no answers to be found within.
The Dallas loss early on seems like years ago, and was excusable for multiple reasons. The 49ers were without Michael Crabtree and, after their first offensive play, Braylon Edwards. The team had a 10 point lead with just over seven minutes to go and would've probably won easily had coach Jim Harbaugh just elected to take a 1st-and-10 from the Cowboys 22 instead of a David Akers field goal that pushed the lead to 24-14. Even then, the Cowboys had to convert a 4th-and-6 late in the game just to tie up the game and send it to overtime.
The Baltimore game was a scheduled loss. Practically no time to prepare, a long road trip, some injuries along the offensive line and at receiver, a couple of questionable referee calls, and really the whole thing was a write-off and nobody held it against them, even though having nine sacks is unacceptable.
Then came the Arizona game. No excuses for this one, not with the second seed and a playoff bye at stake. The Niners blew a 19-7 third quarter lead and wasted the chance to turn it into a laugher early, not capitalizing on a pair of Cardinals turnovers in their own territory and a long punt return from Ted Ginn. Three different times they were inside the Cardinals 5-yard-line, and three times they came up empty. If you're counting, that's three times in the last 19 chances they've scored a touchdown inside the red zone. They've gotten away with red zone failures against Cleveland, Washington, the first time against Arizona and against St. Louis, but it finally bit them in the rear here.
The players all had a hand in it certainly, but for me the biggest slice of the blame has to go to Harbaugh, offensive coordinator Greg Roman, and the rest of the offensive coaches, because the play-calling has been abysmal down there. Of the nine plays the 49ers ran, I'd classify one -- the back-shoulder fade that Alex Smith attempted to Braylon Edwards -- as a quality play that had a good chance of working. The pass was slightly deflected at the line, which changed its trajectory enough to fall incomplete. The other plays though, from the give up runs up the gut to Frank Gore, to naked bootlegs with Smith, to fades to 5-10 Ted Ginn to those awful one receiver option rollouts they ran, all had practically no chance of working from conception, and I'm dubious that they worked at all on the practice field.
Problem two is zone blitzes, more specifically, how the offensive line is not handling them. Smith has been sacked 18 times in the past three games, and 14 of those have come against Baltimore and Arizona, a pair of 3-4 defenses that favor the zone blitz. On a conference call on Wednesday ESPN "Monday Night Football" analysts Jon Gruden and Ron Jaworski both confirmed that the zone blitz has been a major bugaboo for the o-line, with youngsters Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis in particular struggling to recognize what was happening in time. Against Arizona, Frank Gore was so conscious of helping out Alex Boone, who was at left tackle for the concussed Joe Staley, that he left the middle and the right side unprotected. I would posit the theory that Boone needs less help than any member of that line when it comes to pass blocking.
The 49ers caught a break of sorts in that they got to play the Cardinals right before facing Pittsburgh. Arizona's defensive coordinator Ray Horton is a former Steelers assistant and a disciple of Dick LeBeau, and he brought his creative blitzing defense to the Cardinals. Obviously the Steelers have more talent and experience, but at least the Niners will have an idea of what to expect now. Not having to face James Harrison, whose suspension for concussing Colt McCoy was upheld, will be another break.
The third problem, appropriately, is third down conversions, or lack thereof. The 49ers are now 31st in the league at converting third downs, and have fallen below the 30 percent mark for the season. The players and coaches trot out the same tired solution again and again -- they have to do a better job on first and second down and avoid the third-and-longs. Huey. Contrary to popular belief, not every 49ers third down is third-and-10. Their percentage is poor because they fail on plenty of third-and-mediums and third-and-shorts too. Remember, Smith is in the top 10 in completion percentage, so I wager he faces less third-and-a-mile situations than most quarterbacks across the league. They're just not converting, period.
The offensive line woes are a part of that, but the receivers and play-calling share more of the burden. Against the Cardinals, nobody was getting any separation in the second half. Arizona's defenders seemed to know what was coming on every play. Second-year man Kyle Williams has had his moments the past couple of games, but for the most part Michael Crabtree has been the only consistent, reliable target for Smith to rely on, and he's basically just a possession receiver. Edwards isn't right physically and is clearly not on the same page with Smith. Delanie Walker hasn't caught a pass in four games and a had a critical third down drop at Arizona. Most of all, Vernon Davis has been a ghost, diminished in the offense, and it's no coincidence that he wasn't available to chat in the locker room all week.
Troy Polamalu will play on Monday, but he barely practiced during the week with a balky hamstring. If ever Davis is going to break out, it's going to be tonight, and the 49ers need to take advantage of the match-up, as it's the most favorable one they have. Ike Taylor and William Gay are aggressive corners who look to jump routes, and while they can be had with pump fakes and double moves, a quarterback needs time in the pocket and some speed on the outside to take advantage of that, and Smith often has neither of those luxuries. Davis and Walker need to come up big.
Aside from the hobbled Polamalu, the Steelers will be further hampered by the loss of Harrison, which will force Jason Worilds to line up across from Staley, who was cleared by the medics on Sunday and is on track to start tonight despite suffering a concussion last week. Staley didn't practice all week, participating in just the Saturday walk-through, and even that in a "no-contact" jersey. If he doesn't look right, Boone will there in reserve. The match-up to watch will be on the other side, with Lamarr Woodley against Anthony Davis. Woodley is battling a hamstring problem of his own, and will reportedly be on a "pitch count," so we'll see how that goes.
On the other side of the ball, center Maurkice Pouncey will miss the game for the Steelers with an ankle injury, and his backup, Doug Legursky, is more of a guard who doesn't have much experience snapping. With Ben Roethlisberger likely reduced to playing almost exclusively from the shotgun because of his bad ankle, Legursky could very well have a bad snap or two. Legursky will also hurt the Steelers run game, as he's nowhere near the run blocker that Pouncey is. Practically nobody can run it against the 49ers to begin with, and with Rashard Mendenhall reduced to settling for those shotgun draws, it will be tough for them to get much going there. Really, I expect the Steelers to just hand it off here and there, with no real expectations of success and more to just keep the 49ers pass rushers honest.
The match-ups to watch will come on the outside, as the 49ers will be in the nickel defense practically the whole game. The Steelers will look to isolate Mike Wallace or Antonio Brown (both of whom average over 16 yards per catch) on Tarell Brown, with Chris Culliver the second option. Carlos Rogers will have Hines Ward in the slot, and Ward is only a factor on third downs or the red zone. Pittsburgh will probably look to exploit Larry Grant, who'll be in there again in the absence of Patrick Willis, with tight end Heath Miller. They have a lot of weapons to use, and the match-ups look harrowing indeed.
Still, I like the 49ers tonight. I think Roethlisberger's lack of mobility will be key. He won't be able to extend plays and buy his guys time like he normally does. His running game will be of no help. The Steelers offensive line isn't very good and the playbook will be somewhat limited because of Big Ben's injuries. I think they'll cough up a couple of turnovers and that the 49ers defensive backs will step up to the occasion by keeping Pittsburgh's fleet receivers in front of them and making them march.
The 49ers are a different animal at home and I think the offense will be just efficient enough, cashing in on one of three red zone opportunities and scoring another touchdown from beyond 20. I've got San Francisco 20-17, with Davis catching seven passes for 92 yards and a score.
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