The 49ers 20-3 Monday night victory over the defending AFC Champion Pittsburgh Steelers was an important stepping stone, despite Ben Roethlisberger having to hobble through the game with a ravaged ankle. In the game the Niners defense made a statement in not allowing a single touchdown to the Steelers and the secondary showed, if nothing else, their ball skills, as Carlos Rogers, Dashon Goldson and Tarell Brown all snared picks on the only chances they had. The run defense extended their streaks of not allowing a 100-yard rusher to 36 straight games and not allowing a rushing touchdown to 15 straight, and did so even without Patrick Willis, who well might be the only starter on that defense the national audiance was even aware of prior to the game. Guys like Goldson, Rogers, Justin Smith, Aldon Smith and NaVorro Bowman are lesser lights who will need to come up big in a playoff game to gain national attention.
There were a couple of chances the Steelers blew early in the game, one on a dropped slant from Antonio Brown and another on a deep ball from Roethlisberger down the sideline where Mike Wallace had two steps on Tarell Brown, but outside of that the secondary had a superb day in keeping the Steelers speedsters in front of them, despite Roethlisberger's 330 (mostly empty) yards. To me, the significant thing I took away from the game defensively was that every time the Steelers had a 3rd-and-short, they lined up in shotgun, not even bothering to pretend they were going to run. And, more importantly, they converted all of them. One of the hidden advantages the 49ers defense had in getting off the field on third downs in past games was when opposing offenses foolishly tried to run on them on 3rd-and-short. My guess is future opponents will adopt the Steelers strategy instead. As I've stated repeatedly, anytime people call a run against the 49ers, they're doing them a favor. If I was an offensive coordinator I'd NEVER call a run play against these guys. They're a historic run defense.
Speaking of history, Andy Lee is having a season for the ages for the 49ers. To me, he was unquestionably the most valuable player of that Steelers game the way he consistently turned field position for the Niners. He pinned the Steelers inside their own 15 on four of his six punts and pulled off a rare feat in averaging more yards net (49.2) than gross (47.5), thanks to a pair of negative returns from the Steelers. Lee's net average of 44.1 yards not only leads the league, but would be the best in NFL history if it held, best Oakland's Shane Lechler, who had a 43.85 mark in 2009. The net statistic has only been kept since 1976, however.
Offensively, as predicted, the 49ers were able to make some headway by using Vernon Davis, since nobody on the Steelers is a good match-up for him. The story lines that got people's attention however was the play of the offensive line in not allowing a single sack to the Steelers and the end of the team's red zone slump, since they scored touchdowns on two straight chances to break a 3-for-20 drought.
Not to be a wet blanket, but I think both of these angles are overblown. The Steelers were without their best bookend pass rusher, James Harrison, due to suspension, and on the other side LaMarr Woodley was limited with a hamstring injury and in fact only made it through about half the game. So really, the offensive line shut down their second string. Besides, the pass protection hasn't really been an issue at home all year except for the Dallas game. It's the road that's been their bugaboo.
As for the red zone scoring, while I'm optimistic that maybe they've found a couple of plays that worked (the play-action to Davis was a beauty), I do see an area of concern. Jim Harbaugh seems to me like a stubborn fantasy player who's obsessed with getting certain guys touchdowns at certain times. When he's got a player who got tackled at the 1-yard line or 1-inch line or however close it is, Harbaugh has been peristent in trying to get that guy the score, whether it was Frank Gore (I can think of three separate instances where he's had Gore go up the gut looking for touchdowns to no avail), Michael Crabtree and now Davis. That's dangerously predictable from my perspective, and something to watch for. Also, the only reason the 49ers even scored on two straight red zone chances was because the Steelers had a penalty during a David Akers field goal attempt. At least Harbaugh learned from his Cowboys blunder earlier in the season and took the first down this time instead of the points. (Not that he'd ever admit to it, of course.)
Contrary to popular belief, the 49ers upcoming Christmas Eve game at Seattle will be even more challenging than the Steelers game was. Not only is it a road game, but it's a road game at the noisiest stadium in the league. Not only is it a road game at the noisiest stadium in the league, but it's a road game at the noisiest stadium in the league who are coming off three straight blowouts. And not only is it a road game at the noisiest stadium in the league who are coming off three straight blowouts, but it's a road game at the noisiest stadium in the league who are coming off three straight blowouts and who have already played the 49ers once before.
The Cardinals showed a couple weeks prior what a difference a little exposure to the 49ers makes and they were certainly able to capitalize in their rematch at home. The Seahawks, with a red hot Marshawn Lynch who's scored in 10 games straight could well do likewise.
What the Seahawks don't have, of course, is an explosive receiver anywhere near on par with Larry Fitzgerald. Sidney Rice hasn't been much of a factor all season and their best guy has been Doug Baldwin, an undrafted wideout from Stanford who Harbaugh is well familiar with and admitted during the week he should've drafted over USC's Ronald Johnson. With pedestrian Tarvaris Jackson at the controls and a patchwork offensive line in front of him, the Seahawks don't have the kind of passing game that will put a scare into the 49ers. Lynch is playing as well as anybody these days, and he's a load to tackle, but I trust the 49ers front seven against anyone and it's looking possible that Patrick Willis might suit up for this one (he practiced, albeit on a limited basis, on Thursday and Friday). As long as they don’t give Seattle short fields with turnovers or get sloppy in their tackling with Lynch, the Seahawks don’t figure to get more than 20 points, tops.
On the other side of the ball, the strength of Seattle’s defense, as is the case with the 49ers, is in stopping the run with their beefy line and playing coverage behind the front four and snatching picks. They’re tied with the Niners for second in the league with 21 interceptions. What makes their secondary particularly daunting is their size. Young cornerbacks Byron Maxwell and Brandon Browner are both huge, as is strong safety Kam Chancellor, who’s a monster. Free safety Earl Thomas, meanwhile is a ball-hawk who’s not afraid to lay a lick, much like his 49ers counterpart Dashon Goldson.
For the 49ers to move the ball on this unit, the line will have to be poised even in that deafening racket, not pick up needless false start penalties and buy the receivers enough time to escape the jam. Their will be quickness mismatches with Williams, rookie back Kendall Hunter and most of all with Davis. Michael Crabtree, meanwhile, is a fluid enough route runner that he should be able to shake free from those corners. The offensive line will be the key.
The 49ers come into the game with an NFL-best +25 turnover differential. As long as that trend continues and the offense doesn't cough it up, the Seahawks aren't going to run away and hide from them if they have to travel the length of the field to score. The Niners will get two or three red zone opportunities, one figures, and if they can cash in on those, they'll win. Jackson is as turnover prone as anyone, and 49ers safety Donte Whitner spoke during the week of how Lynch, his former teammate at Buffalo, can be loose with the football. San Francisco won't have Ted Ginn available to steal return yards for them on kickoffs and punts, so turnovers will be their only chance for short fields of their own.
By the way, and nobody realizes this: The reason Alex Smith doesn't have a ton of passing yards isn't because the 49ers pass way less often than fewer teams. The 49ers have passed quite a bit the last few weeks. The reason his totals are low is because the 49ers start off so many of their drives with excellent field position thanks to those turnovers. They lead the league in both starting field position and opponent's starting field position, so those yardage figures in their games will be misleading. Smith simply doesn't have as much field to traverse and rack up the yards.
Anyway, I'm picking Frank Gore over Lynch, Smith (and Smith, and Smith) over Jackson and the 49ers over the Seahawks, 20-17. Merry Christmas everyone.
The Picks:
Denver at Buffalo (+3): Dare I say Tim Tebow keeps looking better and better the more he plays. We can't say the same for Ryan Fitzpatrick, however, and you have to think the Bills have checked out by now. Broncos 24, Bills 13
Arizona at Cincinnati (-5): The Cardinals have played well of late and have even been spunky on the road, winning at Philadelphia and nearly upsetting Baltimore. The Bengals have been leaking oil and couldn't even cover against a talentless St. Louis squad. Both teams are on the fringe of their respective conference's playoff races. A shaky vote for the visitors. Cardinals 23, Bengals 20
Jacksonville at Tennessee (-8): Here's how bad the Jaguars are: They're eight point dogs to a team that lost to the Colts. Hell, they'll probably be underdogs to the Colts next week. Blaine Gabbert has a live arm, but he's got some serious PTSD he needs to get over in the off-season. Titans 20, Jaguars 10
Oakland at Kansas City (-3): The Chiefs have found new life with Romeo Crennel and Kyle Orton. The Raiders, meanwhile, continue to miss Darren McFadden and Carson Palmer seems to have a revolving door of receivers to work with every week. Chiefs 24, Raiders 17
Miami at New England (-10): The Dolphins are playing decently, but the Patriots have been otherwordly on offense for the past month. They can smell the number one seed and aren't about to give it up Matt Moore. Patriots 34, Dolphins 20
NY Giants at NY Jets (-3): Toughest game to pick on the board. I like the Giants quarterback more, but I like the Jets secondary more. Rex Ryan and the Jets are more accustomed to making late season runs than the Giants are, so I'll guess that trend continues. Jets 21, Giants 17
St. Louis at Pittsburgh (-13): The Steelers will go with Charlie Batch instead of Ben Roethlisberger against the Rams. If that's not an indigment of St. Louis, then how about this: Jim Harbaugh has passed Steve Spagnuolo in career wins, in 32 fewer games. Steelers 20, Rams 9
Minnesota at Washington (-7): Now that Matt Barkley announced his intention to return to USC (reportedly Oklahoma's Landry Jones will follow suit) the Skins might as well keep winning since they're just gonna trade for Peyton Manning anyway. Redskins 27, Vikings 13
Tampa Bay at Carolina (-8): I'm not sure if I can remember as comprehensive a teamwide laydown than what the Bucs have pulled on Raheem Morris. This is even worse than the Chiefs did with Todd Haley a month ago or what the Cowboys did with Wade Phillips last season. A story came out that Morris would've already been canned, except his bosses couldn't find a suitable interim coach on staff. Panthers 30, Buccaneers 14
Cleveland at Baltimore (-13): No Anquan Boldin for the Ravens, which means we're gonna see a lot of Ray Rice and Ricky Williams. Too many points to lay unless the Brownies are in a giving mood with the ball. Ravens 20, Browns 13
San Diego at Detroit (-3): I'm kind of shocked the Chargers are underdogs in this game. They're just juggernauts in December. If the season ended a month earlier they've have five straight Super Bowls. That game last Sunday night against Baltimore? Nobody was beating them. You could've put the Packers or Patriots or whoever, it wouldn't have mattered. Chargers 34, Lions 20
Philadelphia at Dallas (-3): This game might not matter at all for the Iggles if the Giants win earlier in the day. However, if it turns out that the Jets won, then look out, Philly will come out roaring. It'll come down to who rushes the passer better and which offense commits fewer turnovers. Eagles 30, Cowboys 27
San Francisco at Seattle (+2): Alex Smith will have to outplay Tarvaris Jackson. That doesn't sound like a tall order, but you never know... 49ers 20, Seahawks 17
Chicago at Green Bay (-11): Josh McCown, who spent a part of training camp with the 49ers, starts for the Bears after Lovie Smith finally pulled the plug on the disastrous Caleb Hanie era. I doubt Aaron Rodgers and the other starts play the full game for the Pack, especially if the Niners lose in the afternoon. I'm gonna miss this Christmas classic, as I'll be assisting the AP covering the Warriors season opener vs. Lob City. Packers 24, Bears 10
Atlanta at New Orleans (-7): Two of the hottest teams in the league square off Monday night. It would be a more meaningful game if only one win separated them in the standings; alas that's not the case. I don't see anyone slowing down the Saints in a dome, but if the 49ers win on Saturday then it's quite possible some of the wind will be out of their sails. Saints 27, Falcons 23
Power Poll:
1. Green Bay (13-1)
2. San Francisco (11-3)
3. New Orleans (11-3)
4. New England (11-3)
5. Baltimore (10-4)
6. Pittsburgh (10-4)
7. San Diego (7-7)
8. Philadelphia (6-8)
9. Atlanta (9-5)
10. Detroit (9-5)
11. Denver (8-6)
12. Dallas (8-6)
13. Seattle (7-7)
14. Arizona (7-7)
15. NY Jets (7-7)
16. NY Giants (7-7)
17. Houston (10-5)
18. Cincinnati (8-6)
19. Miami (5-9)
20. Carolina (5-9)
21. Washington (5-9)
22. Kansas City (6-8)
23. Oakland (7-7)
24. Tennessee (7-7)
25. Cleveland (4-10)
26. Chicago (7-7)
27. Indianapolis (2-13)
28. Buffalo (5-9)
29. Jacksonville (4-10)
30. Minnesota (2-11)
31. Tampa Bay (4-10)
32. St. Louis (2-11)
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