The New Orleans Saints have been playing like the best team in the NFL for nearly two months, particularly on offense. They're virtually unbeatable at home and have been breathing down the 49ers' necks for that two seed and the first round playoff bye. The Niners, after their disappointing loss at Arizona two weeks ago, had no margin of error if they intended to hold their ground and avoid the ominous fate of having to travel to face a rested Saints team in the divisional round of the playoffs.
Well, all credit to them they've (very nearly) done it, winning twice in a six day span, first at home on "Monday Night Football" and then, more impressively, on Saturday afternoon against a red-hot Seattle team that threw the kitchen sink at them, "ambush-style" to quote 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh.
The Seahawks scored an opening drive touchdown, a feat no one else has managed on the 49ers all season, and did so by surprising the 49ers by having quarterback Tarvaris Jackson throwing a bunch of quick, short passes rather than trying to pound Marshawn Lynch early, as expected. At first it seemed like the Seahawks, like many 49ers opponents this season, were intimidated by that San Francisco front seven, but that notion was quickly erased as they pounded Lynch plenty -- and effectively so -- for the rest of the first half, to the tune of 83 yards, 12 over what the Niners allowed per game up to that point, by intermission.
The 49ers offense, meanwhile, were running well in their own right, with Gore bulling his way in between the tackles and rookie Kendall Hunter getting more playing time than in past weeks and slashing very well. It was certainly a surpise to see either of these stout run defenses getting gashed the way they were, but the score was only 10-3 at half as both quarterbacks were struggling to convert third downs. Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis, in particular, were doing Alex Smith no favors.
Lo and behold, Smith came out firing in the second half and completed 4-of-4 passes for 64 yards, including a critical 4-and-2 conversion to Davis on a toe-tapping sideline grab. Gore tied the game on a powerful 5-yard run and the Niners seized momentum. However, after the defense forced a three-and-out, Harbaugh called only two pass plays out of eight on the subsequent drive, with Smith scrambling for a first down on one of those two. On 3rd-and-Goal from the 13, they called a draw to Hunter and the team settled for a field goal.
Another three-and-out by the defense, another eight play drive by the offense, and again, only two of those were pass attempts by Smith, with one of those being a 3rd-and-9 from the 26. Incomplete, and again the Niners kicked the field goal. 16-10.
Smith did pass three times on the next drive, but two of those were on 2nd-and-12 and 3rd-and-9. Andy Lee got his punt blocked and the 49ers trailed 17-16. Now it gets interesting.
On 2nd-and-18 from his own 31, Smith completed a 41-yard pass down the sideline to Crabtree to get the Niners to the Seahawks' 28. There was 5:51 left in the game at the start of the play. It would be Smith's last pass attempt of the game. Three runs went nowhere and Akers booted a field goal to make it 19-17 with 2:57. After the game Harbaugh said the team always goes for touchdowns, not field goals. A couple of days after that he said any suggestions that Crabtree pushed off prior to making the catch were "a bunch of baloney."
Well, I say his answer about going for touchdowns is a bunch of baloney.
We've seen this kind of conservative thinking a number of times from Harbaugh. Against Dallas he opted to keep the points on the scoreboard after a Cowboys penalty on an Akers field goal. Instead of having first-and-10 from the Dallas 22 and a seven point lead, he chose to give the ball to Dallas, up 10, with a bit over seven minutes to go. You know how that worked out.
Against the Bengals the following week, up 10-6 with less than four minutes to go and with 1st-and-10 at Cincinnati's 32, the 49ers ran three times for -3 yards and had Akers kick a 52-yarder to get to 13 points, keeping the margin at seven instead of icing the game.
At Detroit, the Niners got the ball up 22-19 and ran three times with just over a minute to go and then kicked a field goal instead of going for the jugular. They gave it back to the Lions, down six. It would've been a hell of a comeback for Detroit, but it was doable.
Finally, there was that Pittsburgh game. Smith had a sensational drive in the third quarter, going 5-of-5 for 73 yards and a touchdown to make it 13-3. On the next drive the 49ers ran three times and punted.
Look, you know how the Seattle game ended. Up 19-17 with 2:57 left, Harbaugh put the No. 2 seed in the hands of his defense. He bet -- correctly, as it turned out -- that Tarvaris Jackson wasn't going to beat him. Larry Grant made a great hustle play and forced a fumble, saving his coach's bacon. Still, Harbaugh's conservatism nearly cost the team the game and make no mistake, against somebody good, like a Drew Brees for example, it's going to get him beat in January.
I can't wait to hear Harbaugh talking about who on his team were Pro Bowl snubs tomorrow. I bet he'll mention Alex Smith and blame the media for being stat-obsessed and going for the "low-hanging fruit."
The truth is it's Harbaugh who doesn't think Smith is a Pro Bowler, not us. He certainly doesn't trust him like a Pro Bowler. He thinks he's got a bunch of them on defense though, and he's right about that.
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Speaking of Pro Bowlers, the 49ers had eight of them named to the team, tying them with the Patriots for most in the league. While I think the number is right, I disagree with some of the choices. Let's look at them one by one.
P Andy Lee: The best punter in the league this year, by none. No argument here.
K David Akers: I think Robbie Gould of the Bears has an argument, as do several others who were more accurate. Akers was more prolific, of course, which helped. I think it's the right choice.
RB Frank Gore: Personally, I think Marshawn Lynch has had the better season. He's been more consistent. Gore was very good from games 4-8, but so-so before and after. Also, he's fallen off as a receiver and in pass protection. However both Matt Forte and Adrian Peterson will finish the year having played only 12 games, so I think the ideal trio would be LeSean McCoy, Lynch and Gore.
LT Joe Staley: The biggest stretch, in my opinion. He had an excellent season as a run blocker, but allowed six sacks. I find it hard to believe there aren't three better tackles in the NFC. Carolina's Jordan Gross has allowed only 3.5 sacks protecting Cam Newton's backside and that's a high-scoring offense with a great running game as well. Green Bay's Bryan Bulaga has allowed just one sack in 12 games, protecting Aaron Rodgers. Atlanta's Tyson Clabo has had a good year, too.
CB Carlos Rogers: I think the right three guys got picked here, though Philadelphia's Nnamdi Asomugha was coming on, believe it or not. Rogers' hands have been much better than advertised, but an even bigger surpirse is how physically he's played in run support when that wasn't his reputation at all. He's not some fancy guy who makes his living outside of the hashes either. He's done a lot of his damage from the slot, and that's no place for the meek.
S Dashon Goldson: Surprised that Green Bay's Charlie Peprah or Atlanta's Thomas DeCoud didn't get more attention here. Goldson has really been a ball-hawk the past couple of months, but the stats-heads out there will tell you that's more luck than skill. He does miss quite a few tackles and isn't the best in coverage, but for a guy who plays deep centerfield, he does a good job of tracking overthrown balls down and he has good ball skills. Will occasionally lay a lick too. If he didn't make the team it wouldn't have been some great injustice, and I'm thinking the 49ers front office kindof wishes he hadn't as the free agent-to-be's price tage will surely go up now, possibly out of the 49ers' range.
DT Justin Smith: No-brainer.
LB Patrick Willis: Ditto, even in 12 games.
Snubs:
LS Brian Jennings: I'm not sure he's technically a snub, as no long snappers have been named to the team yet from what I can see. We'll find out.
ST Blake Costanzo: Really, I think C.J. Spillman is just as good, if not better. But one's a gunner, while the other guy is more of an up-the-middle wrecking ball, and that's the more hazardous line of work and deserves some recognition. I haven't seen enough of Chicago's Corey Graham to have an opinion one way or the other, but at 6-0, 196, I doubt he's a wedge-buster. Then again, not having Costanzo in the game might be doing those AFC special teamers a big favor. I doubt Costanzo would figure out that he's not supposed to try hard in the game, and he's liable to kill somebody.
LG Mike Iupati: No, not yet. Not until he figures out those zone blitzes and gets better in pass protection.
C: Jonathan Goodwin: Good in the running game, good leader, but gave up too many sacks.
TE: Vernon Davis: No.
FB: Bruce Miller: Stop it.
LB: Aldon Smith: Listed as a DE for voting purposes, and that's the right call, honestly. I don't think he deserves it over Jared Allen or Jason Pierre-Paul, but he has a case against Philly's Jason Babin, who's a specialist who happens to play every down. That guy doesn't even pretend to care about the run.
LB: NaVorro Bowman: He's fifth in the NFL in tackles, but only has one sack and no interceptions to his name. Only two inside linebackers make the team, and good luck getting Willis or Brian Urlacher off the list anytime soon. This was Bowman's breakout season. If he does it again next year, we'll talk.
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Bye-bye Braylon
Braylon Edwards' release was a bit of a surprise, but only because fellow wide outs Kyle Williams (concussion) and Ted Ginn (ankle sprain) aren't very healthy themselves. If the Niners had a full compliment of receivers, including Joshua Morgan, Edwards would've hit the bricks a while back I'm sure. The enigmatic Edwards tore his right meniscus in the second game of the season against Dallas and could never get the knee right, even after surgery and rehab. The sense I got from my dealings with him in the locker room was that he wasn't exactly obsessed with trying to get it right or to play through it. Edwards signed a modest deal for a million bucks that would've paid him over three times that if he met all his incentives. Once he figured that wasn't going to happen with the injury, I think he kind of shut it down.
Is that unfair? Maybe. But I think the writing was on the wall when Edwards didn't fight through Baltimore corner Lardarius Webb to at least break up an interception on Smith's bomb to him on Thanksgiving. The Monday after the game Edwards publicly discussed his injury (a big-time no-no with Harbs) and all but begged out of the St. Louis game, saying that his sole goal was to get totally healthy by the playoffs. My guess is the coach wasn't too keen on one of his players kissing off regular season so brazenly, because in Harbaugh's view the next game is ALWAYS the most important one of the season.
Edwards played only 11 snaps the following game at Arizona and groused about it to the press afterward, which you know bothered Harbaugh some more. Even though it's highly unlikely that the receiver's health deteriorated much over the following seven days (Edwards practiced, albeit on a limit basis, during the week), he was scratched against Pittsburgh, with Harbaugh saying afterward that Ginn, Williams and even Brett Swain gave the team a better chance to win. Ouch. If Ginn hadn't sprained his ankle against the Steelers, I'm thinking this move would've been made a week before.
Edwards' release isn't all about him though. The Niners quite likely need the roster spot because of tight end Delanie Walker's serious jaw injury. My guess is they'll sign a tight end (probably promote practice squad rookie Konrad Reuland) instead of a receiver. If they put Walker on IR, then they'll sign a receiver (probably practice squad rookie Joe Hastings).
The Edwards experiment was a failure, but not a terribly expensive one. It's a violent game and injuries happen. I doubt he would've been a happy camper anyway, given the confines of the offense. All we can deduce from this is that the curse of No. 81 is alive and well. The Niners should look to draft somebody tall and fast next April, and for the love of God, give him No. 89 or something.
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