Friday, December 30, 2011

Silence of the Rams, Week 17 Picks and Power Poll

Sunday's game at St. Louis should be fascinating in that absolutely nobody in the building -- except the 100 or so gentlemen on the Rams' sideline -- would be happy if home team pulled the upset. Those Rams fans can taste the No. 1 pick. It's close, so tantalizingly close. All they need is for the upstart Colts to hand it to shellshocked rookie Blaine Gabbert and the lifeless Jaguars, while their guys keep doing what they've been doing, which is a whole lot of nothing. With the No. 1 pick the Rams can start over with Andrew Luck and try to trade Sam Bradford, or, more likely, they can make a go of it with Bradford a little longer and ransom the pick to get him some help along the offensive line and at receiver.

All we know for sure is that Bradford will have little control of his own fate, since once again he will be a spectator against the 49ers, just like he was in these teams' first meeting on Dec. 4 at Candlestick Park, when the Niners eked out a 26-0 win over A.J. Feeley. The fellas messed up Feeley's hand but good late in that ball game, so now they get Kellen Clemens. Yes, that one. I know, I'm surprised he's still alive too.

The rest of the Rams offense is pretty blah. Their offensive line is a battered patchwork mess, the kind of line that makes their counterparts in San Francisco look like the 90's Cowboys. Tony Wragge is starting at center for them these days, and while Wragge was a nice guy in my dealings with him, he's not an NFL starter. Steven Jackson you know about. He talks a good game, he seems earnest, but for power backs in the league he's a cut below the Adrian Peterson/Marshawn Lynch class and more at the Brandon Jacobs/LaGerrette Blount level. Their lone offensive threat is Brandon Lloyd, who would look mighty good on the Niners these days.

On the other side of the ball, the Rams front four is feisty enough, particularly Chris Long, who has 13 sacks and made Anthony Davis look awful the last time out. However, the Rams like to sell out with that pass rush and make themselves quite vulnerable to the run. Also, their corners are s-l-o-o-o-o-o-w, to the point where even 49ers offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who makes every upcoming opponent sound like the '85 Bears in his weekly soliloquies, admitted that they "have some depth issues at corner." The Titanic had depth issues. The Rams secondary blows.

Unfortunately for the 49ers, they will likely be testing that secondary with the likes of Brett Swain and Joe Hastings since Kyle Williams (concussion) and Ted Ginn (ankle) will likely be out. The 49ers passing game will look like something out of the MAC. Well, even more so.

Despite those limitations, I expect Jim Harbaugh to man the torpedoes early in an effort to get a quick jump on these guys. The sooner they can get the Rams to wave the white flag -- which they'll be all-too-willing to do despite their declarations to win one for the gipper -- the sooner Harbaugh can put his backups in and look forward to the Saints in two weeks. Larry Grant likely won't start because Patrick Willis will return to the lineup, but I predict he'll see plenty of playing time against his old mates in the second half.

If Colin Kaepernick doesn't see the field, something will have gone disastrously wrong.



Detroit at Green Bay (+3):
The 14-1 Packers are three point underdogs at home. You think the Vegas sharps have an idea about how much their starters are gonna play on Sunday? Like a lemming, I'm gonna follow (and be grateful my opponent in the fantasy league Super Bowl can't start Aaron Rodgers). Lions 26, Packers 20

San Francisco at St. Louis (+11):
I don't respect the Rams much and Kellen Clemens even less, but 11 points on the road is a lot, especially for a 49ers club that struggles in the red zone, struggles on third downs, and will be missing receivers Kyle Williams and Ted Ginn. 49ers 16, Rams 7

NY Jets at Miami (-3):
Reggie Bush isn't starting for the Dolphins, and the pathetic Jets still have faint playoff hopes. Watch them make it due to a ridiculous set of circumstances and then pull off two road upsets. Jets 20, Dolphins 13

Chicago at Minnesota (-1):
Now here's a compelling ball game... Vikings 23, Bears 13

Buffalo at New England (-11):
The Patriots need a win to wrap up home field and Tom Brady will be looking to avenge that four pick game against these guys the last time out. Good enough for me. Patriots 34, Bills 17

Carolina at New Orleans (-8):
Saints coach Sean Payton will have his spies watching the 49ers-Rams game, looking for the first sign of the Rams waving the white flag. He will then promptly pull Drew Brees and Co., allowing Cam Newton to pull out a phony comeback. Panthers 30, Saints 24

Washington at Philadelphia (-9):
You don't know how sick I am about correctly predicting that the Eagles would finish 8-8 after starting 4-8. Thanks a pantsful, Andy, who needs better draft picks? Aaaargh. Eagles 27, Redskins 17

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (-4):
I can't believe the Jags are favored in this game. It really blows my mind. Has anyone been watching these two teams lately? Colts 17, Jaguars 13

Tennessee at Houston (-3):
The Titans still have faint playoff hopes, while the Texans have the sobering realization that they're playing with a third-string quarterback and that they're gonna be drubbed by Pittsburgh next week. Titans 20, Texans 13

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-12):
I think I would've taken the Falcons at -20. So bet the house on the Bucs. Falcons 31, Buccaneers 10.

Baltimore at Cincinnati (+3):
The Ravens have been pretty crummy on the road, but they need this game to hold on to the second seed. The Bengals, who struggled mightily to sell out this bad boy, would get into the playoff with a win. My (fictional) money's on Ray Rice, the best player on the field. Ravens 24, Bengals 17

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (+8):
I think Ben Roethlisberger starts, but this is another one of those deals, like the Saints game, where the second Mike Tomlin gets an inkling that the Ravens will win, he'll pull his guy. Seneca Wallace has been spunky for the Browns. Steelers 17, Browns 16

Kansas City at Denver (-4):
Kyle Orton playing spoiler vs. his former team. O the intrigue. I think the Broncos defense steps up at home and Tim Tebow makes just enough plays to pull it out, but no I am not expecting a beauty here. Broncos 16, Chiefs 13

San Diego at Oakland (-3):
I'm probably way off, but I'm expecting a spirited effort from the Raiders in this one, fully determined to not let the Broncos backdoor their way into a division title. They'll have a big day running the ball with... whoever is healthy enough to be their back these days. Raiders 27, Chargers 17

Seattle at Arizona (-3):
The Seahawks are playing well, but it's tough to pick against the Cards at home these days. Cardinals 23, Seahawks 16

Dallas at NY Giants (-3):
The Giants are usually at their best when backed into a corner, while the Cowboys are at their worst. Dallas had one of these faux-Week 17 playoff games at Philly in 2008 and got throttled. Have I mentioned I don't like Dallas? Giants 30, Cowboys 24

Power Poll:


1. Green Bay (14-1)
2. New Orleans (12-3)
3. San Francisco (12-3)
4. New England (12-3)
5. Baltimore (11-4)
6. Pittsburgh (11-4)
7. Philadelphia (7-8)
8. Detroit (10-5)
9. Cincinnati (9-6)
10. New York Giants (8-7)
11. Atlanta (9-6)
12. Dallas (8-7)
13. Houston (10-5)
14. Denver (8-7)
15. Oakland (8-7)
16. New York Jets (8-7)
17. Tennessee (8-7)
18. San Diego (7-8)
19. Seattle (7-8)
20. Arizona (7-8)
21. Carolina (6-9)
22. Buffalo (6-9)
23. Miami (5-10)
24. Kansas City (6-9)
25. Chicago (7-8)
26. Washington (5-10)
27. Cleveland (4-11)
28. Indianapolis (2-13)
29. Jacksonville (4-11)
30. Minnesota (3-12)
31. St. Louis (2-13)
32. Tampa Bay (4-11)

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