Well, congratulations, 49ers fans. You've made the playoffs for the first time since 2002. Although if any of you out there had even the slightest bit of doubt that you would before Sunday's "game" against the horrendous St. Louis Rams, you all really ought to be ashamed of yourselves, for you root for one of the best three or four teams in the league (it's true!) and the Rams are one of the one or one worst.
As you saw with your own, drunken, blurry eyes, the Rams are completely bereft of talent just about everywhere except for their defensive line. They can rush the passer well (more on this in a moment) and... nothing else. In fact, I'm not sure if I can ever recall seeing a slower secondary in my 20-plus years of watching the NFL. It's no hyperbole to state that I think LSU's secondary would've competed better than St. Louis' DBs.
Offensively, one gets the distinct feeling that Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo came into the game knowing he had NO chance to win and just wanted to get out of there without getting any of his guys hurt. So many useless runs up the middle. If I'm an NFL coach and my offensive coordinator ever calls a run up the gut against the 49ers in any situation besides 3rd-and-inches or running out the clock with a lead, I'd march up to the coaching booth in the middle of the game to ream him out. It's just a total waste of a play, akin to spiking the ball but with the side benefit of keeping the clock running and giving the Niners defense a chance to force a fumble.
In a way it's hard to blame Spagnuolo for the white flag game plan. He had A.J. Feeley at quarterback for the injured Sam Bradford and an offensive line in front of Feeley that was also completely decimated by injury. The Rams had to play Adam Goldberg, nominally a guard, at left tackle because they had no one else. They had to use Tony Wragge, the former 49er reserve guard, at center. At a certain point I think Spagnuolo was just fearful about getting through the game with Feeley intact, and those fears proved warranted when Feeley suffered a thumb injury late in the game.
Defensively, it’s difficult to draw too many conclusions from the game. The front seven was stellar as always – the Rams averaged a whopping 1.3 yards per run – and Feeley felt a good amount of heat. I thought Ray McDonald had his best game in a while, not just because of his strip-sack (which gave him a career-high four for the season) but with the quickness he showed in penetrating gaps and getting to Steven Jackson time and again. Justin Smith was his usual dominating self on the other flank and Aldon Smith added to sacks to his total, giving him 9.5 for the season, including one where he absolutely bulldozed poor Goldberg with his bull-rush.
If there is one thing the coaches can take away from the game, it’s what I’ve long suspected, that Larry Grant is a perfectly good reserve who you can throw in there in either of the middle linebacker spots without it killing you. Obviously, Grant is no star on par with Patrick Willis and he’s not even in the same athletic phylum as NaVorro Bowman, but he is an adequate starting-level player. I’ve long advocated giving him a couple of series per game in relief of Willis and Bowman (who are both, of course, three down guys), to keep them fresh. Grant is a one-direction guy, a downhill linebacker who is better served playing in the middle than on the outside, where he would over-pursue plays with his aggressiveness and get suckered. But he does play with a fair amount of ferocity and packs quite a wallop on his hits, what coach Jim Harbaugh referred to as “contact courage.”
Like it or not, 49ers fans will get a chance to witness him lay out a few more licks, as Willis’ strained hamstring will keep him out at least one game and maybe longer. It will mean more responsibility for second-year man Bowman, who will now be wearing the helmet with the radio receiver and in charge of relaying the signals to his defensive mates. Strong safety Donte Whitner will also have to take on more of a leadership role, coordinating the fellas in the back.
Against the Cardinals on Sunday the challenge for Bowman and Co. will be more difficult than in their previous engagement, since Kevin Kolb will be at quarterback instead of John Skelton, whom Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio all but admitted to Fox analyst Brian Billick that he couldn’t read a defense. Both Fangio and Whitner spoke to Kolb’s scrambling ability and his propensity to keep plays alive with his feet to buy his receivers more time, like a Diet Coke version of Ben Roethlisberger.
Still, let’s be real. The 49ers are being duly respectful and polite. I’ve seen Kolb play. Lo, I’ve seen him play. The guy is, in technical terms, a spaz. Hit him a couple of times early, and that’s it. He lowers his eyes, focuses on the pass rush instead of the coverage, and calls it a day the rest of the way with check downs and hurried throws out of bounds. He’s not a guy who’s gonna stand there in the pocket and take a hit to make a money throw. Combine that with the Cardinals’ shoddy line, the fact that Beanie Wells will likely miss the game with knee and hamstring injuries (he hasn’t practiced all week) and the various double-teams the 49ers are sure to throw at Larry Fitzgerald, and I don’t foresee a game where the Cardinals are north of 14 points without the 49ers doing them considerable favors on the turnover front or rookie punt returner Patrick Peterson breaking one.
On the other side of the ball, as always, there was some good and some bad. Lost in the hysteria of Frank Gore breaking the late Hall-of-Famer Joe “The Jet” Perry’s franchise rushing record (congratulations, by the way) however, was the fact that Gore – 21 carries for 73 yards – really didn’t have all that good of a game. Actually, it was the fourth straight game he averaged less than four yards a a carry. Actually, he’s had seven such games this season (the first three and the last four) versus five games averaging more than four. The Rams stacked the box some, but certainly not as severely as the New York Giants did a few weeks back and no worse than Gore has faced throughout his career. Yes, the 49ers ran 34 times for 144 yards against the Rams, a 4.2 average, but those numbers were inflated by the three end arounds (or as they call them, “fly sweeps”) they ran and Smith’s option keeper. Gore and fellow running backs Kendall Hunter and Anthony Dixon combined for 29 carries and 79 yards, which works out to 2.7 yards per carry. Not good.
Where the running game particularly struggled was in the red zone. All the chicanery of using extra linemen and shifting and all that isn’t working any longer, as opponents have caught on to it. The reality of the situation is that just as the 49ers front seven dominates down there, not having allowed a single rushing touchdown, their opponents get paid too. It’s very difficult to run the ball down there, when the box is stacked. If I’ve noticed one weakness with Harbaugh through 12 games, it’s that at times he gets too stubborn with the running game, hell-bent on getting Gore, whom he’s clearly fond of, touchdowns. The 49ers have a number of play-action passes or zone floods (such as the brilliant two-point play they ran for Michael Crabtree against the Giants) in their arsenal, but at times they’re hesitant to use them. Even a quarterback sneak would be preferable in some situations to these routine plays where Smith gets the handoff, turns his back to hand it off to Gore and gives a nine man wall time to penetrate and overpower seven or eight blockers.
As far as the pass blocking goes, the team has to be wondering what’s going on with right tackle Anthony Davis. It’s one thing for him to allow three sacks to Baltimore. That game was on short rest, maybe there wasn’t enough time to review film or game plan, and fatigue may have been an issue since the offense was on the field for nearly 90 snaps the Sunday before against the Cardinals. But Chris Long worked Davis over like a speed bag last week, beating him for two sacks and a few other pressures of Smith. It’s one thing for a tackle to ole on a pass rusher on some spin move, but Long completely lost Davis on a swim move. I’ve never seen anything like it, it was like Davis forgot he had arms, he barely touched Long. The 49ers have to hope it’s a two-game blip for Davis and that he can get his game back, but if he gets abused again, they’ll have to think long and hard about benching him to send a message. They’ve been lucky so far, but eventually Smith is gonna get hurt, taking the punishment he’s taking.
Otherwise, the passing game was quite exceptional. Smith had maybe the best deep passing game of his career – taking advantage of that plodding Rams secondary – and was very sharp overall, posting a career-high 142.3 rating. It could’ve been even higher, but Vernon Davis dropped a wide open touchdown on a bomb. Crabtree, finally healthy (“The fans have seen what I can do with one foot,” he told me in the locker room afterward, “so imagine what I can do with two!”) looked fast and explosive. Kyle Williams though was the revelation. The kid looks like he’s shot out of a cannon when he runs, with acceleration unlike anyone else on the team. He also has the best hands of anyone on the roster. With Delanie Walker’s performance waning I predict the Niners will use three receiver packages more and more to get Williams involved. Braylon Edwards is returning this week, but I don’t think he’ll be a full-time player. Really, I expect most of his snaps to come inside the red zone. Williams is a guy who can better exploit the wide open spaces in the field between the 20s.
A sequence of plays I particularly liked came on the 49ers first series of the third quarter, after Dashon Goldson’s interception. A Gore run for eight off tackle, then stretching the Rams defense right with the end around to Ginn, and then stretching them left with an end around to Walker. St. Louis’ defense, completely confused, decided to flatten out and get wide, and boom, the Niners go up top to Crabtree for a 52-yard touchdown. It’s a play that wouldn’t have worked if the safeties were at their normal depth. I like drives where one play sets up the next which sets up the next and so on, and it’s something that has been woefully lacking around these parts for years.
The Cardinals defense played well against the Cowboys, but I don’t see them changing radically from the team I saw at Candlestick Park a month ago. Their pass rush is still ordinary, at best; Davis still gives them fits and Crabtree abused poor Peterson in their past meeting. It’s quite possible that the 49ers will continue to have their red zone struggles, but they should continue to have plenty of scoring opportunities. These teams just aren’t in the same class.
Sunday Picks
Philadelphia at Miami (-3): The Eagles are discombobulated and out of the playoff hunt. So of course they'll start winning now, to ruin their draft position. It's what Andy Reid does. Eagles 24, Dolphins 20
Indianapolis at Baltimore (-17): I picked against the Colts last week against a monster spread and that didn't work out. This week I'll pick them and they'll lose by 50. Ravens 23, Colts 10
Minnesota at Detroit (-10): I don't trust the Lions to beat anybody by 10. Vikings have a beat up secondary, but they should be getting Adrian Peterson back. Lions 27, Vikings 20
Houston at Cincinnati (-3): Bengals really need this game and the Texans have to make do with T.J. Yates at QB and no Andre Johnson. At some point reality has to set in, doesn't it? Bengals 20, Texans 13
New Orleans at Tennessee (+4): We'll see how much the Saints have improved, if any, as an outdoor team. Chris Johnson is finally running well again. Really, the most intriguing match-up of the day in my mind. Saints 27, Titans 17
Kansas City at NY Jets (-11): Tyler Palko is terrible, but the Chiefs defense is too good to lay 11, and certainly against the Jets. Take the under! Jets 13, Chiefs 6
New England at Washington (+9): I think the Redskins will hold Rob Gronkowski to only three touchdowns. Patriots 41, Redskins 17
Atlanta at Carolina (+3): I have no idea what to make of either of these teams. Or 29 others. I've got the Niners down though. I guess I have to go against that Panthers defense, begrudgingly. Falcons 27, Panthers 23
Tampa Bay at Jacksonville (+2): Good god. Why would anyone watch this? Jaguars 13, Buccaneers 10
San Francisco at Arizona (+4): They're rivals in the same way a hammer and a nail are rivals. 49ers 23, Cardinals 13
Chicago at Denver (-4): One day Tim Tebow will have to deal with a good quarterback on the other team. This isn't the day. Broncos 17, Bears 3
Oakland at Green Bay (-12): I wasn't very impressed by the Raiders road effort at Miami, but I admit, I'm a tough judge. The Packers are somewhat better than the Dolphins, so by the transitive property, I like them here. Packers 34, Raiders 17
Buffalo at San Diego (-7): If you bet on this one, you have a problem. Chargers 24, Bills 16
NY Giants at Dallas (-3): It's time for the Giants to make their last stand. Either they win this game to make the NFC East a race to the finish, or hand it to the Cowboys, call it a season and dump Tom Coughlin. Giants 24, Cowboys 20
St. Louis at Seattle (-11): This may set Monday night ratings records, and not in the good way. Looking forward to the announcers talk about anything else but the game for three hours. Seahawks 23, Rams 3.
Power Poll
1. Packers (12-0)
2. Ravens (9-3)
3. 49ers (10-2)
4. Saints (9-3)
5. Steelers (10-3)
6. Patriots (9-3)
7. Texans (9-3)
Oh god I hate everyone else
8. Lions (7-5)
9. Cowboys (7-5)
10. Giants (6-6)
11. Broncos (7-5)
12. Jets (7-5)
13. Bengals (7-5)
14. Titans (7-5)
15. Falcons (7-5)
16. Dolphins (4-8)
17. Raiders (7-5)
18. Bears (7-5)
19. Chargers (5-7)
20. Seahawks (5-7)
21. Cardinals (5-7)
22. Bills (5-7)
23. Chiefs (5-7)
24. Panthers (4-8)
25. Redskins (4-8)
26. Browns (4-9)
27. Vikings (2-10)
28. Jaguars (3-9)
29. Buccaneers (4-8)
30. Colts (0-12)
31. Rams (2-10)
32. Eagles (4-8)
Finally, because I lost a bet, a word about my colleague, Matt Maiocco. He's a swell guy and I strongly encourage you to follow his work at www.CSNBayArea.com/football-san-francisco-niners Matt often refers to me as the "son he's never wanted" and I can honestly say that I too look up to him as a father since in all the time I've known him he's only spoken to me to tell me when I've done something wrong or to belittle me and besides that he's ignored me completely. He really is quite something and no one is more plugged into the 49ers except for like five or six people. Seven, tops. Readers of Matt may be under the misconception that he never has opinions, but as someone who has been privy to them, let me tell you, he does and they're often amusing. I shudder at the plight of this tortured soul, who has to keep all shreds of his personality out of the camera's glare and off the printed page, but then I remember how much money he makes and don't feel too bad for him anymore. Send him tweets and emails and tell him to be nicer to me.
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